心投资
2021-07-03
NIO will continue to grow in the next half of 2021
NIO May Grow Even Faster Than Expected<blockquote>蔚来增长速度可能比预期还要快</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":152163658,"tweetId":"152163658","gmtCreate":1625276294874,"gmtModify":1633941877793,"author":{"id":3578738582837184,"idStr":"3578738582837184","authorId":3578738582837184,"authorIdStr":"3578738582837184","name":"心投资","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30fc324d24ff33075e053005564f0df","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>NIO will continue to grow in the next half of 2021</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>NIO will continue to grow in the next half of 2021</p></body></html>","text":"NIO will continue to grow in the next half of 2021","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152163658","repostId":1120590567,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120590567","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625238577,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120590567?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 23:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO May Grow Even Faster Than Expected<blockquote>蔚来增长速度可能比预期还要快</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120590567","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNIO’s June deliveries grew at an impressive rate.\nThe Chinese EV maker returned to triple-d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO’s June deliveries grew at an impressive rate.</li> <li>The Chinese EV maker returned to triple-digit delivery growth last month, helped by strong Y/Y growth in NIO’s flagship model ES6.</li> <li>NIO is set to overcome production setbacks and ramp up production in the second half of 2021.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03ca537373e278344c3447309dd586ea\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来 6 月份的交付量增长速度令人印象深刻。</li><li>在蔚来旗舰车型 ES6 同比强劲增长的帮助下，这家中国电动汽车制造商上个月的交付量恢复了三位数增长。</li><li>蔚来将在2021年下半年克服生产挫折并提高产量。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO (NIO) is rebounding fast from the pandemic-driven chip supply shortage and the proof is in surging EV deliveries. Impressive delivery rates for the month of June show that the market may underestimate NIO's growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）正在从大流行导致的芯片供应短缺中迅速反弹，电动汽车交付量激增就是最好的证明。6 月份令人印象深刻的交付率表明市场可能低估了蔚来汽车的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shipping volumes are accelerating</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发货量正在加速</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO guided for lower production volumes in the second quarter due to the global chip and battery supply shortage. The shortage was set to reduce NIO's factory output from 10,000 vehicles to 7,500 vehicles a month.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球芯片和电池供应短缺，蔚来预计第二季度产量将下降。此次短缺将使蔚来汽车的工厂产量从每月 10,000 辆减少到 7,500 辆。</blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic. As more people started to work from home, a sharp increase in demand for semiconductors from the consumer electronics industry coincided with a faster than anticipated rebound in chip demand from the auto industry, leading to a global shortage in semiconductors that is throttling auto production from the US to China. NIO's guidance for lower factory output has lowered delivery expectations but a return to triple-digit growth rates may now push NIO's stock higher again.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体供应短缺源于新冠肺炎疫情。随着越来越多的人开始在家工作，消费电子行业对半导体需求的急剧增加，恰逢汽车行业芯片需求的反弹速度快于预期，导致全球半导体短缺，从而抑制了从美国到中国的汽车产量。蔚来汽车对工厂产量下降的指导降低了交付预期，但恢复三位数增长率现在可能会再次推高蔚来汽车的股价。</blockquote></p><p> While the temporary production drop was a setback for NIO, it seems that the electric vehicle maker is ready to bounce back.NIO's June deliveries were nothing short of impressive and the market may underestimate NIO's ability to grow EV deliveries at triple digits this year. The Chinese EV maker delivered a total 8,083 vehicles in June, bringing the Q2'21 total to 21,896 EVs consisting of all models… NIO's 5-seater electric SUV ES6, the 5-seater electric coupe SUV EC6 and the 6-seater or 7-seater electric SUV ES8. NIO's monthly and quarterly delivery totals hit records in the second quarter and the EV maker is set to reach new records for the rest of the year. Total June deliveries saw 116% growth Y/Y with the largest growth coming from the ES6 model. The ES6 category saw 52% growth Y/Y. Total deliveries for Q2'21 were 21,896, most of which were ES6s, showing growth of 112% Y/Y… and that's despite production problems in the second quarter. Comparable figures for the EC6 are not available since deliveries for this model only began after the second quarter last year. What stands out from NIO's June delivery report is that shipping growth is speeding up compared to the previous month, which may be seen as a sign that NIO's delivery capabilities are undervalued. In May, NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles which is equivalent to a Y/Y growth rate of 95%. Strong delivery numbers for the month of June may be a cue that NIO's production problems are easing and that NIO is ready to return to full production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>虽然产量暂时下降对蔚来来说是一个挫折，但这家电动汽车制造商似乎已经准备好反弹。蔚来汽车 6 月份的交付量令人印象深刻，市场可能低估了蔚来汽车今年电动汽车交付量增长三位数的能力。这家中国电动汽车制造商在 6 月份共交付了 8,083 辆汽车，使 21 年第二季度的电动汽车总数达到 21,896 辆，包括所有车型……蔚来的 5 座电动 SUV ES6、5 座电动轿跑车 SUV EC6 和 6 座或 7 座电动 SUV ES8。蔚来汽车第二季度的月度和季度交付总量创下历史新高，这家电动汽车制造商将在今年剩余时间内创下新纪录。6 月份总交付量同比增长 116%，其中 ES6 车型增幅最大。ES6 类别同比增长 52%。21 年第二季度的总交付量为 21,896 辆，其中大部分是 ES6，同比增长 112%……尽管第二季度出现了生产问题。由于该车型在去年第二季度之后才开始交付，因此没有 EC6 的可比数据。蔚来6月份交付报告中最引人注目的是，与上个月相比，出货量增长正在加速，这可能被视为蔚来交付能力被低估的迹象。5月份，蔚来交付了6,711辆汽车，同比增长率高达95%。6 月份强劲的交付数据可能表明蔚来的生产问题正在缓解，蔚来已准备好恢复满负荷产能。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af76b71f8259337d534fb29b1a6a8c4\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"129\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles which the EV maker is not fully utilizing due to the semiconductor shortage. As soon as the chip shortage eases, which can be expected to be the case in the second half of the year, we should see a steady ramp up in NIO's factory output and deliveries. The speed of the ramp up will depend less on demand but rather on the severity of the supply shortage. The semiconductor shortage is a primary risk factor that will impact NIO's delivery success in the remaining two quarters.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的年产能为 15 万辆汽车，但由于半导体短缺，这家电动汽车制造商并未充分利用这一产能。一旦芯片短缺问题得到缓解（预计下半年将会出现这种情况），我们应该会看到蔚来的工厂产量和交付量稳步增长。增长的速度将较少取决于需求，而是取决于供应短缺的严重程度。半导体短缺是影响蔚来汽车剩余两个季度交付成功的主要风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> The market for electric vehicles is very resilient in China and demand for zero-emission passenger vehicles is not going away due to delays in production, which may be a sort of luxury problem for Chinese EV makers. NIO's EV sales in China have surged this year, but the second half of the year may see even faster growth as the industry works through the supply problem.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车市场非常有弹性，对零排放乘用车的需求不会因生产延迟而消失，这对中国电动汽车制造商来说可能是一种奢侈品问题。蔚来汽车今年在中国的电动汽车销量激增，但随着行业解决供应问题，下半年可能会出现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7579fc2abe7ca63887e68a9256b54cb3\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"438\"><span>(Source:InsideEVs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：InsideEVs）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> XPeng (XPEV), another Chinese electric vehicle maker,delivered 6,565 Smart EVs in June 2021, representing growth of 617% Y/Y. XPeng sold 4,730 electric sport sedans and 1,835 compact SUVs last month, more than ever before. In Q2'21, XPeng delivered 17,398 deliveries, representing 439% growth Y/Y.</p><p><blockquote>另一家中国电动汽车制造商小鹏汽车（XPEV）2021年6月交付了6,565辆智能电动汽车，同比增长617%。小鹏汽车上个月售出了 4,730 辆电动运动轿车和 1,835 辆紧凑型 SUV，比以往任何时候都多。2021 年第二季度，小鹏汽车交付量为 17,398 辆，同比增长 439%。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's EV sales in China are also soaring showing strong demand and customer uptake of EV vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车在中国的电动汽车销量也在飙升，显示出对电动汽车的强劲需求和客户接受度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8cd25b4fd64f193bc91dabbee99e54\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>(Source:InsideEVs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：InsideEVs）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>NIO FY 2021 delivery projections</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来 2021 财年交付预测</b></blockquote></p><p> My estimates for Q3'21 and Q4'21 deliveries are shown in the graph below and assume a ramp up especially in NIO's ES6 delivery capability and a continual escalation to a quarterly output of 30,000 vehicles by year-end. A quarterly output volume of around 30,000 cars by year-end is realistic to achieve and NIO would still be operating 20% below full production capacity. Calculating the delivery totals for Q1 and Q2 together with my estimates for Q3 and Q4 results in a total delivery potential of 97,056 vehicles (across all three models) in FY 2021 and NIO may even be able to crack the 100,000 barrier if shipment volumes continue to accelerate at a strong rate in the last two quarters of the year. NIO delivered 43,728 vehicles in 2020 in total, so a 97,056 delivery estimate for 2021 implies 122% Y/Y growth. In the first six months of 2021, NIO already delivered 41,956 or 43% of my FY 2021 delivery estimate. As production returns to normal in the second half of the year, NIO should be able to create triple-digit delivery growth on a Y/Y basis.</p><p><blockquote>我对 2021 年第三季度和 2021 年第四季度交付量的估计如下图所示，并假设蔚来 ES6 的交付能力有所增强，并且到年底季度产量将持续增长至 30,000 辆。到年底实现约 30,000 辆汽车的季度产量是现实的，蔚来的运营仍将比满负荷产能低 20%。计算第一季度和第二季度的交付总量以及我对第三季度和第四季度的估计，2021 财年的总交付潜力为 97,056 辆（所有三种车型），如果出货量在今年最后两个季度继续强劲增长，蔚来甚至可能能够突破 100,000 辆大关。蔚来在 2020 年总共交付了 43,728 辆汽车，因此 2021 年的交付量预计为 97,056 辆，意味着同比增长 122%。在2021年的前六个月，蔚来已经交付了41,956辆，占我2021财年交付估计的43%。随着下半年生产恢复正常，蔚来应该能够实现三位数的同比交付增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb01be329ab1b6d9a6097e74a1d5b250\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"116\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's sales growth is cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来汽车的销量增长很便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> EV makers are not cheap and that is because the market values sales and delivery growth more than anything. NIO trades at a P-S ratio of 9.4 and the valuation multiplier factor is not that much different from other EV makers. Compared against Tesla (TSLA), which trades at a P-S ratio of 9.9, NIO has more revaluation potential because it operates in a larger market and has a lower revenue base.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商并不便宜，这是因为市场最看重销售和交付增长。蔚来的市盈率为 9.4，估值乘数系数与其他电动汽车制造商没有太大区别。与市盈率为 9.9 的特斯拉 (TSLA) 相比，蔚来具有更大的重估潜力，因为它在更大的市场运营且收入基础较低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84e0cee1726c807b6b7d04f4f4e44f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The chip supply shortage is still a major risk factor for NIO and it will have an impact on NIO's Q3 and Q4 production output... which will be below potential. As conditions normalize slowly in the second half, NIO should be able to ramp up factory output and deliveries. While delivery growth rates are influenced by factors outside of NIO's operations, they also represent a big opportunity for NIO to surprise the market. Better than expected growth rates and a fast return to full production could create fertile ground for stock price appreciation.</p><p><blockquote>芯片供应短缺仍然是蔚来的主要风险因素，并将对蔚来第三季度和第四季度的产量产生影响……这将低于潜力。随着下半年情况慢慢恢复正常，蔚来应该能够提高工厂产量和交付量。虽然交付量增长率受到蔚来运营以外因素的影响，但它们也代表着蔚来给市场带来惊喜的巨大机会。好于预期的增长率和快速恢复满产可能会为股价升值创造肥沃的土壤。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO may be growing faster than expected in 2021 as the chip supply shortage eases and a strong rebound in the second half of the year could push NIO to hit the critical 100,000 annual delivery milestone. Demand for EVs remained strong in 2021 and Chinese EV makers are killing it. I believe 120% Y/Y growth in annual deliveries is possible in 2021 as factory output normalizes in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2021年的增长速度可能会快于预期，因为芯片供应短缺的缓解以及下半年的强劲反弹可能会推动蔚来达到10万个年度交付的关键里程碑。2021 年电动汽车需求依然强劲，而中国电动汽车制造商正在扼杀这一需求。我相信，随着下半年工厂产量正常化，2021 年年度交付量可能会同比增长 120%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO May Grow Even Faster Than Expected<blockquote>蔚来增长速度可能比预期还要快</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO May Grow Even Faster Than Expected<blockquote>蔚来增长速度可能比预期还要快</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 23:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO’s June deliveries grew at an impressive rate.</li> <li>The Chinese EV maker returned to triple-digit delivery growth last month, helped by strong Y/Y growth in NIO’s flagship model ES6.</li> <li>NIO is set to overcome production setbacks and ramp up production in the second half of 2021.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03ca537373e278344c3447309dd586ea\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来 6 月份的交付量增长速度令人印象深刻。</li><li>在蔚来旗舰车型 ES6 同比强劲增长的帮助下，这家中国电动汽车制造商上个月的交付量恢复了三位数增长。</li><li>蔚来将在2021年下半年克服生产挫折并提高产量。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO (NIO) is rebounding fast from the pandemic-driven chip supply shortage and the proof is in surging EV deliveries. Impressive delivery rates for the month of June show that the market may underestimate NIO's growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）正在从大流行导致的芯片供应短缺中迅速反弹，电动汽车交付量激增就是最好的证明。6 月份令人印象深刻的交付率表明市场可能低估了蔚来汽车的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shipping volumes are accelerating</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发货量正在加速</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO guided for lower production volumes in the second quarter due to the global chip and battery supply shortage. The shortage was set to reduce NIO's factory output from 10,000 vehicles to 7,500 vehicles a month.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球芯片和电池供应短缺，蔚来预计第二季度产量将下降。此次短缺将使蔚来汽车的工厂产量从每月 10,000 辆减少到 7,500 辆。</blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic. As more people started to work from home, a sharp increase in demand for semiconductors from the consumer electronics industry coincided with a faster than anticipated rebound in chip demand from the auto industry, leading to a global shortage in semiconductors that is throttling auto production from the US to China. NIO's guidance for lower factory output has lowered delivery expectations but a return to triple-digit growth rates may now push NIO's stock higher again.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体供应短缺源于新冠肺炎疫情。随着越来越多的人开始在家工作，消费电子行业对半导体需求的急剧增加，恰逢汽车行业芯片需求的反弹速度快于预期，导致全球半导体短缺，从而抑制了从美国到中国的汽车产量。蔚来汽车对工厂产量下降的指导降低了交付预期，但恢复三位数增长率现在可能会再次推高蔚来汽车的股价。</blockquote></p><p> While the temporary production drop was a setback for NIO, it seems that the electric vehicle maker is ready to bounce back.NIO's June deliveries were nothing short of impressive and the market may underestimate NIO's ability to grow EV deliveries at triple digits this year. The Chinese EV maker delivered a total 8,083 vehicles in June, bringing the Q2'21 total to 21,896 EVs consisting of all models… NIO's 5-seater electric SUV ES6, the 5-seater electric coupe SUV EC6 and the 6-seater or 7-seater electric SUV ES8. NIO's monthly and quarterly delivery totals hit records in the second quarter and the EV maker is set to reach new records for the rest of the year. Total June deliveries saw 116% growth Y/Y with the largest growth coming from the ES6 model. The ES6 category saw 52% growth Y/Y. Total deliveries for Q2'21 were 21,896, most of which were ES6s, showing growth of 112% Y/Y… and that's despite production problems in the second quarter. Comparable figures for the EC6 are not available since deliveries for this model only began after the second quarter last year. What stands out from NIO's June delivery report is that shipping growth is speeding up compared to the previous month, which may be seen as a sign that NIO's delivery capabilities are undervalued. In May, NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles which is equivalent to a Y/Y growth rate of 95%. Strong delivery numbers for the month of June may be a cue that NIO's production problems are easing and that NIO is ready to return to full production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>虽然产量暂时下降对蔚来来说是一个挫折，但这家电动汽车制造商似乎已经准备好反弹。蔚来汽车 6 月份的交付量令人印象深刻，市场可能低估了蔚来汽车今年电动汽车交付量增长三位数的能力。这家中国电动汽车制造商在 6 月份共交付了 8,083 辆汽车，使 21 年第二季度的电动汽车总数达到 21,896 辆，包括所有车型……蔚来的 5 座电动 SUV ES6、5 座电动轿跑车 SUV EC6 和 6 座或 7 座电动 SUV ES8。蔚来汽车第二季度的月度和季度交付总量创下历史新高，这家电动汽车制造商将在今年剩余时间内创下新纪录。6 月份总交付量同比增长 116%，其中 ES6 车型增幅最大。ES6 类别同比增长 52%。21 年第二季度的总交付量为 21,896 辆，其中大部分是 ES6，同比增长 112%……尽管第二季度出现了生产问题。由于该车型在去年第二季度之后才开始交付，因此没有 EC6 的可比数据。蔚来6月份交付报告中最引人注目的是，与上个月相比，出货量增长正在加速，这可能被视为蔚来交付能力被低估的迹象。5月份，蔚来交付了6,711辆汽车，同比增长率高达95%。6 月份强劲的交付数据可能表明蔚来的生产问题正在缓解，蔚来已准备好恢复满负荷产能。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af76b71f8259337d534fb29b1a6a8c4\" tg-width=\"673\" tg-height=\"129\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles which the EV maker is not fully utilizing due to the semiconductor shortage. As soon as the chip shortage eases, which can be expected to be the case in the second half of the year, we should see a steady ramp up in NIO's factory output and deliveries. The speed of the ramp up will depend less on demand but rather on the severity of the supply shortage. The semiconductor shortage is a primary risk factor that will impact NIO's delivery success in the remaining two quarters.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的年产能为 15 万辆汽车，但由于半导体短缺，这家电动汽车制造商并未充分利用这一产能。一旦芯片短缺问题得到缓解（预计下半年将会出现这种情况），我们应该会看到蔚来的工厂产量和交付量稳步增长。增长的速度将较少取决于需求，而是取决于供应短缺的严重程度。半导体短缺是影响蔚来汽车剩余两个季度交付成功的主要风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> The market for electric vehicles is very resilient in China and demand for zero-emission passenger vehicles is not going away due to delays in production, which may be a sort of luxury problem for Chinese EV makers. NIO's EV sales in China have surged this year, but the second half of the year may see even faster growth as the industry works through the supply problem.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车市场非常有弹性，对零排放乘用车的需求不会因生产延迟而消失，这对中国电动汽车制造商来说可能是一种奢侈品问题。蔚来汽车今年在中国的电动汽车销量激增，但随着行业解决供应问题，下半年可能会出现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7579fc2abe7ca63887e68a9256b54cb3\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"438\"><span>(Source:InsideEVs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：InsideEVs）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> XPeng (XPEV), another Chinese electric vehicle maker,delivered 6,565 Smart EVs in June 2021, representing growth of 617% Y/Y. XPeng sold 4,730 electric sport sedans and 1,835 compact SUVs last month, more than ever before. In Q2'21, XPeng delivered 17,398 deliveries, representing 439% growth Y/Y.</p><p><blockquote>另一家中国电动汽车制造商小鹏汽车（XPEV）2021年6月交付了6,565辆智能电动汽车，同比增长617%。小鹏汽车上个月售出了 4,730 辆电动运动轿车和 1,835 辆紧凑型 SUV，比以往任何时候都多。2021 年第二季度，小鹏汽车交付量为 17,398 辆，同比增长 439%。</blockquote></p><p> XPeng's EV sales in China are also soaring showing strong demand and customer uptake of EV vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车在中国的电动汽车销量也在飙升，显示出对电动汽车的强劲需求和客户接受度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8cd25b4fd64f193bc91dabbee99e54\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>(Source:InsideEVs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：InsideEVs）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>NIO FY 2021 delivery projections</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来 2021 财年交付预测</b></blockquote></p><p> My estimates for Q3'21 and Q4'21 deliveries are shown in the graph below and assume a ramp up especially in NIO's ES6 delivery capability and a continual escalation to a quarterly output of 30,000 vehicles by year-end. A quarterly output volume of around 30,000 cars by year-end is realistic to achieve and NIO would still be operating 20% below full production capacity. Calculating the delivery totals for Q1 and Q2 together with my estimates for Q3 and Q4 results in a total delivery potential of 97,056 vehicles (across all three models) in FY 2021 and NIO may even be able to crack the 100,000 barrier if shipment volumes continue to accelerate at a strong rate in the last two quarters of the year. NIO delivered 43,728 vehicles in 2020 in total, so a 97,056 delivery estimate for 2021 implies 122% Y/Y growth. In the first six months of 2021, NIO already delivered 41,956 or 43% of my FY 2021 delivery estimate. As production returns to normal in the second half of the year, NIO should be able to create triple-digit delivery growth on a Y/Y basis.</p><p><blockquote>我对 2021 年第三季度和 2021 年第四季度交付量的估计如下图所示，并假设蔚来 ES6 的交付能力有所增强，并且到年底季度产量将持续增长至 30,000 辆。到年底实现约 30,000 辆汽车的季度产量是现实的，蔚来的运营仍将比满负荷产能低 20%。计算第一季度和第二季度的交付总量以及我对第三季度和第四季度的估计，2021 财年的总交付潜力为 97,056 辆（所有三种车型），如果出货量在今年最后两个季度继续强劲增长，蔚来甚至可能能够突破 100,000 辆大关。蔚来在 2020 年总共交付了 43,728 辆汽车，因此 2021 年的交付量预计为 97,056 辆，意味着同比增长 122%。在2021年的前六个月，蔚来已经交付了41,956辆，占我2021财年交付估计的43%。随着下半年生产恢复正常，蔚来应该能够实现三位数的同比交付增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb01be329ab1b6d9a6097e74a1d5b250\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"116\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's sales growth is cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来汽车的销量增长很便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> EV makers are not cheap and that is because the market values sales and delivery growth more than anything. NIO trades at a P-S ratio of 9.4 and the valuation multiplier factor is not that much different from other EV makers. Compared against Tesla (TSLA), which trades at a P-S ratio of 9.9, NIO has more revaluation potential because it operates in a larger market and has a lower revenue base.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商并不便宜，这是因为市场最看重销售和交付增长。蔚来的市盈率为 9.4，估值乘数系数与其他电动汽车制造商没有太大区别。与市盈率为 9.9 的特斯拉 (TSLA) 相比，蔚来具有更大的重估潜力，因为它在更大的市场运营且收入基础较低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84e0cee1726c807b6b7d04f4f4e44f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The chip supply shortage is still a major risk factor for NIO and it will have an impact on NIO's Q3 and Q4 production output... which will be below potential. As conditions normalize slowly in the second half, NIO should be able to ramp up factory output and deliveries. While delivery growth rates are influenced by factors outside of NIO's operations, they also represent a big opportunity for NIO to surprise the market. Better than expected growth rates and a fast return to full production could create fertile ground for stock price appreciation.</p><p><blockquote>芯片供应短缺仍然是蔚来的主要风险因素，并将对蔚来第三季度和第四季度的产量产生影响……这将低于潜力。随着下半年情况慢慢恢复正常，蔚来应该能够提高工厂产量和交付量。虽然交付量增长率受到蔚来运营以外因素的影响，但它们也代表着蔚来给市场带来惊喜的巨大机会。好于预期的增长率和快速恢复满产可能会为股价升值创造肥沃的土壤。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO may be growing faster than expected in 2021 as the chip supply shortage eases and a strong rebound in the second half of the year could push NIO to hit the critical 100,000 annual delivery milestone. Demand for EVs remained strong in 2021 and Chinese EV makers are killing it. I believe 120% Y/Y growth in annual deliveries is possible in 2021 as factory output normalizes in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在2021年的增长速度可能会快于预期，因为芯片供应短缺的缓解以及下半年的强劲反弹可能会推动蔚来达到10万个年度交付的关键里程碑。2021 年电动汽车需求依然强劲，而中国电动汽车制造商正在扼杀这一需求。我相信，随着下半年工厂产量正常化，2021 年年度交付量可能会同比增长 120%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437606-nio-may-grow-faster-than-expected\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437606-nio-may-grow-faster-than-expected","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120590567","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO’s June deliveries grew at an impressive rate.\nThe Chinese EV maker returned to triple-digit delivery growth last month, helped by strong Y/Y growth in NIO’s flagship model ES6.\nNIO is set to overcome production setbacks and ramp up production in the second half of 2021.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nChinese electric vehicle maker NIO (NIO) is rebounding fast from the pandemic-driven chip supply shortage and the proof is in surging EV deliveries. Impressive delivery rates for the month of June show that the market may underestimate NIO's growth potential.\nShipping volumes are accelerating\nNIO guided for lower production volumes in the second quarter due to the global chip and battery supply shortage. The shortage was set to reduce NIO's factory output from 10,000 vehicles to 7,500 vehicles a month.\nThe global semiconductor supply shortage has its roots in the COVID-19 pandemic. As more people started to work from home, a sharp increase in demand for semiconductors from the consumer electronics industry coincided with a faster than anticipated rebound in chip demand from the auto industry, leading to a global shortage in semiconductors that is throttling auto production from the US to China. NIO's guidance for lower factory output has lowered delivery expectations but a return to triple-digit growth rates may now push NIO's stock higher again.\nWhile the temporary production drop was a setback for NIO, it seems that the electric vehicle maker is ready to bounce back.NIO's June deliveries were nothing short of impressive and the market may underestimate NIO's ability to grow EV deliveries at triple digits this year. The Chinese EV maker delivered a total 8,083 vehicles in June, bringing the Q2'21 total to 21,896 EVs consisting of all models… NIO's 5-seater electric SUV ES6, the 5-seater electric coupe SUV EC6 and the 6-seater or 7-seater electric SUV ES8. NIO's monthly and quarterly delivery totals hit records in the second quarter and the EV maker is set to reach new records for the rest of the year. Total June deliveries saw 116% growth Y/Y with the largest growth coming from the ES6 model. The ES6 category saw 52% growth Y/Y. Total deliveries for Q2'21 were 21,896, most of which were ES6s, showing growth of 112% Y/Y… and that's despite production problems in the second quarter. Comparable figures for the EC6 are not available since deliveries for this model only began after the second quarter last year. What stands out from NIO's June delivery report is that shipping growth is speeding up compared to the previous month, which may be seen as a sign that NIO's delivery capabilities are undervalued. In May, NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles which is equivalent to a Y/Y growth rate of 95%. Strong delivery numbers for the month of June may be a cue that NIO's production problems are easing and that NIO is ready to return to full production capacity.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles which the EV maker is not fully utilizing due to the semiconductor shortage. As soon as the chip shortage eases, which can be expected to be the case in the second half of the year, we should see a steady ramp up in NIO's factory output and deliveries. The speed of the ramp up will depend less on demand but rather on the severity of the supply shortage. The semiconductor shortage is a primary risk factor that will impact NIO's delivery success in the remaining two quarters.\nThe market for electric vehicles is very resilient in China and demand for zero-emission passenger vehicles is not going away due to delays in production, which may be a sort of luxury problem for Chinese EV makers. NIO's EV sales in China have surged this year, but the second half of the year may see even faster growth as the industry works through the supply problem.\n(Source:InsideEVs)\nXPeng (XPEV), another Chinese electric vehicle maker,delivered 6,565 Smart EVs in June 2021, representing growth of 617% Y/Y. XPeng sold 4,730 electric sport sedans and 1,835 compact SUVs last month, more than ever before. In Q2'21, XPeng delivered 17,398 deliveries, representing 439% growth Y/Y.\nXPeng's EV sales in China are also soaring showing strong demand and customer uptake of EV vehicles.\n(Source:InsideEVs)\nNIO FY 2021 delivery projections\nMy estimates for Q3'21 and Q4'21 deliveries are shown in the graph below and assume a ramp up especially in NIO's ES6 delivery capability and a continual escalation to a quarterly output of 30,000 vehicles by year-end. A quarterly output volume of around 30,000 cars by year-end is realistic to achieve and NIO would still be operating 20% below full production capacity. Calculating the delivery totals for Q1 and Q2 together with my estimates for Q3 and Q4 results in a total delivery potential of 97,056 vehicles (across all three models) in FY 2021 and NIO may even be able to crack the 100,000 barrier if shipment volumes continue to accelerate at a strong rate in the last two quarters of the year. NIO delivered 43,728 vehicles in 2020 in total, so a 97,056 delivery estimate for 2021 implies 122% Y/Y growth. In the first six months of 2021, NIO already delivered 41,956 or 43% of my FY 2021 delivery estimate. As production returns to normal in the second half of the year, NIO should be able to create triple-digit delivery growth on a Y/Y basis.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO's sales growth is cheap\nEV makers are not cheap and that is because the market values sales and delivery growth more than anything. NIO trades at a P-S ratio of 9.4 and the valuation multiplier factor is not that much different from other EV makers. Compared against Tesla (TSLA), which trades at a P-S ratio of 9.9, NIO has more revaluation potential because it operates in a larger market and has a lower revenue base.\nData by YCharts\nRisks\nThe chip supply shortage is still a major risk factor for NIO and it will have an impact on NIO's Q3 and Q4 production output... which will be below potential. As conditions normalize slowly in the second half, NIO should be able to ramp up factory output and deliveries. While delivery growth rates are influenced by factors outside of NIO's operations, they also represent a big opportunity for NIO to surprise the market. Better than expected growth rates and a fast return to full production could create fertile ground for stock price appreciation.\nFinal thoughts\nNIO may be growing faster than expected in 2021 as the chip supply shortage eases and a strong rebound in the second half of the year could push NIO to hit the critical 100,000 annual delivery milestone. Demand for EVs remained strong in 2021 and Chinese EV makers are killing it. I believe 120% Y/Y growth in annual deliveries is possible in 2021 as factory output normalizes in the second half of the year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":896,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":40,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/152163658"}
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