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2021-07-03

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Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>

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Thank you!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152173202","repostId":1114445293,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114445293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277820,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114445293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114445293","media":"Barron's","summary":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguish","content":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.<blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.<blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.<blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.<blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?<blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.<blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions ofThe Big Short, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.<blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物大空头在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”<blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,Barron’sAndrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.<blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，巴伦安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,Barron’spublished itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.<blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，巴伦发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.<blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, itisdifferent this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.<blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但是这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.<blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.<blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic bookIrrational Exuberance.<blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。非理性繁荣.</blockquote> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”<blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has beenBarron’scredo in the century since its founding.<blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧巴伦信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-07-03 10:03\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.<blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.<blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.<blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.<blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?<blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.<blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions ofThe Big Short, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.<blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物大空头在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”<blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,Barron’sAndrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.<blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，巴伦安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,Barron’spublished itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.<blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，巴伦发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.<blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, itisdifferent this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.<blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但是这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.<blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.<blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic bookIrrational Exuberance.<blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。非理性繁荣.</blockquote> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”<blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has beenBarron’scredo in the century since its founding.<blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧巴伦信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114445293","content_text":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.\nAll of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.\nCustomer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.\nWhile Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.\nThere are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?\nBulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.\nAnd, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions ofThe Big Short, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.\n“I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”\nThe Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,Barron’sAndrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.\nAnd who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,Barron’spublished itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.\nWhile Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.\nAnd while it’s always dangerous to say this, itisdifferent this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.\nNow, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.\nThe yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.\nBut there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic bookIrrational Exuberance.\n“In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”\nReaders can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has beenBarron’scredo in the century since its founding.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":30,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/152173202"}