Sephy
2021-07-02
Back to about at least $38 -$40
NIO: Leading The Way, But Watching Valuation Multiples<blockquote>蔚来：领先，但关注估值倍数</blockquote>
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NIO (NIO) is one of those, with shares up over 60% in that period as the manufacturer continues with its growth and international expansion plans, while navigating the chip shortage quite well. June deliveries came in strong, and set the manufacturer up for another success story in 2H, although the strong rally could see a breather soon.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车公司发现自己重新受到投资者的青睐，自 5 月中旬以来的六周内，少数制造商的股价出现了两位数和三位数的上涨。蔚来（蔚来）就是其中之一，该制造商在此期间股价上涨了 60% 以上，因为该制造商继续其增长和国际扩张计划，同时很好地应对了芯片短缺问题。6 月份的交付强劲，为制造商在 2 小时内创造了另一个成功故事，尽管强劲的反弹可能很快就会出现喘息的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Another Monthly Record</b></p><p><blockquote><b>又一个月度记录</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6833a92766699fa10e3dc04cc8c6beab\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"674\"><span>Graphic from NIO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来自蔚来的图形</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After two months of relatively weaker deliveries from some chip shortage impacts, NIO regained its stride and posted another monthly delivery record for June, over 10% from the previous record. The company delivered 8,083 vehicles, pushing Q2 deliveries to 21,896 vehicles, representing +20.4% growth from Q1 even with more of the impacts being felt during the first part of this quarter. Strong demand and higher seasonality of demand likely boosted deliveries amid these impacts.</p><p><blockquote>由于一些芯片短缺的影响，两个月的交付量相对疲软，蔚来重新振作起来，并创下了 6 月份的另一项月度交付记录，比之前的记录高出 10% 以上。该公司交付了 8,083 辆汽车，将第二季度的交付量推至 21,896 辆，比第一季度增长了 20.4%，尽管本季度上半年感受到了更多影响。在这些影响下，强劲的需求和更高的季节性可能会促进交付。</blockquote></p><p> For the YTD period, NIO has delivered just under 42,000 vehicles, just 4% below its full-year tally of 43,728 vehicles during 2020. NIO remains on track to double its deliveries y/y, with 87,500 vehicles a conservative, achievable year-end target as demand seasonality and orders pick up in the winter months. NIO continues to show impressive sequential growth, with Q2 the fifth-consecutive quarter of q/q growth, and a continuation of that does support the year-end delivery target.</p><p><blockquote>年初至今，蔚来已交付近 42,000 辆汽车，仅比 2020 年全年 43,728 辆汽车的交付量低 4%。蔚来的交付量仍有望同比翻一番，随着冬季需求的季节性和订单的增加，87,500 辆汽车是一个保守的、可实现的年终目标。蔚来继续显示出令人印象深刻的环比增长，第二季度连续第五个季度实现环比增长，这种增长的持续确实支持了年终交付目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not Alone in Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非孤军奋战</b></blockquote></p><p> While NIO's deliveries were impressive, showing its ability to perform in the face of an industry-wide headwind, it's not the only Chinese manufacturer to show impressive growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然蔚来汽车的交付量令人印象深刻，显示了其在全行业逆风面前的表现能力，但它并不是唯一一家表现出令人印象深刻增长的中国制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Fast-growing peer XPeng (XPEV) posted a new monthly record for June, delivering 6,565 vehicles, with the P7 recording its best month since launch at 4,730 units. While growth rates were impressive, at +459% y/y for 1H, +617% y/y for the month, and +439% y/y for Q2, XPeng had only just begun its production of the P7 in mid-May 2020 and did not complete its 10,000 unit goal until October 2020, so it isn't necessarily comparable.</p><p><blockquote>快速增长的同行小鹏汽车 (XPEV) 在 6 月份创下了新的月度纪录，交付了 6,565 辆汽车，其中 P7 创下了上市以来的最佳月度交付量，达到 4,730 辆。虽然增长率令人印象深刻，上半年同比增长+459%，本月同比增长+617%，第二季度同比增长+439%，但小鹏汽车在2020年5月中旬才开始生产P7，直到2020年10月才完成其10,000辆的目标，因此不一定具有可比性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7242f091fae22def7e8992e2e355cf79\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"><span>Graphic from XPeng</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>小鹏汽车图形</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's impressive for XPeng is that even with the later start to production compared to NIO, it's quickly catching up in terms of overall delivery numbers for the monthly and quarterly tallies. June and Q2's figures are just 19% and 21% lower than NIO's, meaning XPeng needs about 25% growth from current levels to match NIO's numbers. As XPeng continues to push its technological edge and broaden its vehicle lineup, with the limited edition P7 Wing and the upcoming G3i next week, it has the necessary catalysts to catch up to NIO relatively soon, as long as its production capacity enables it.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车令人印象深刻的是，尽管生产开始时间比蔚来晚，但它在月度和季度的整体交付量方面很快就赶上了。6 月份和第二季度的数据仅比蔚来低 19% 和 21%，这意味着小鹏汽车需要比当前水平增长约 25% 才能与蔚来汽车的数据相匹配。随着小鹏汽车继续推动其技术优势并扩大其车辆阵容，随着限量版P7 Wing和下周即将推出的G3i，只要其产能允许，它就有必要的催化剂相对较快地赶上蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's Next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一步是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is one of the top pure-play EV manufacturers, and leading the Chinese cohort, although XPeng is quickly catching up. As a quick recap, NIO is launching in Norway during Q3, and has received the EWVTA for the ES8 while it preps its Oslo NIO House. The company also has a longer-term capacity expansion plan through Neo Park after it doubled its capacity arrangement with JAC. There's a lot to look forward to alongside revenue and delivery growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是顶级纯电动汽车制造商之一，也是中国制造商中的佼佼者，尽管小鹏汽车正在迅速迎头赶上。快速回顾一下，蔚来将于第三季度在挪威推出，并在准备其奥斯陆蔚来之家时获得了ES8的EWVTA。在将与江淮汽车的产能安排加倍后，该公司还通过 Neo Park 制定了长期产能扩张计划。除了收入和交付增长之外，还有很多值得期待的事情。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> European expansion, and inevitably potential North American expansion, are both bright spots for NIO, serving to boost both deliveries and revenues by expanding sales outlets and increasing the number of potential customers. However, the costs to establish sales and service centers, NIO Houses, and possibly production facilities could be large; if NIO decides to keep production solely in China, it brings export costs and tariffs into play.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲扩张以及不可避免的潜在北美扩张都是蔚来的亮点，通过扩大销售点和增加潜在客户数量来提高交付量和收入。然而，建立销售和服务中心、蔚来大楼以及可能的生产设施的成本可能很大；如果蔚来决定只在中国生产，这将使出口成本和关税发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's growth is visible, but the question that remains right now is the valuation - the company continues to perform well regardless of the circumstances, cruising through the chip shortage with slight impacts, but does the overall growth and change in the industry support extensive valuation growth?</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车的增长是显而易见的，但现在剩下的问题是估值——无论在什么情况下，该公司都继续表现良好，在芯片短缺的情况下轻松度过，但行业的整体增长和变化是否支持广泛的估值增长？</blockquote></p><p> NIO's 2021 is poised for a second year of triple digit revenue growth, with RMB32.5-33.5 billion (US$5-5.2 billion) projected for 87,500-90,000 units delivered. While the rate of growth will cool from these levels moving forward (simply due to amounts), revenue growth will remain strong on a dollar basis, up ~US$3.5 billion/~68% for 2022 and ~US$4 billion/~45% for 2023 to reach ~$12.5 billion in revenues.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来 2021 年收入将连续第二年实现三位数增长，预计交付 87,500-90,000 辆汽车，达到 325-335 亿元人民币（5-52 亿美元）。虽然未来增长率将从这些水平降温（仅仅是因为数量），但按美元计算，收入增长将保持强劲，2022 年增长约 35 亿美元/~68%，2023 年增长约 40 亿美元/~45%，达到约 125 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue growth at this degree comes at a time when EV adoption is reaching an inflection point, especially in main market China. As the nation pushes for more and more EVs on the road and more infrastructure supporting it, NIO stands to benefit through BaaS - expansion of battery swap station network to the thousands and eligibility for subsidies regardless of vehicle price.</p><p><blockquote>这种程度的收入增长正值电动汽车采用达到拐点之际，尤其是在中国主要市场。随着国家推动越来越多的电动汽车上路以及更多支持它的基础设施，蔚来将通过 BaaS 受益——将电池换电站网络扩展到数千个，并且无论车辆价格如何都有资格获得补贴。</blockquote></p><p> Yet even with EV adoption growing, the timelines for when EV cars will be the \"norm\" are still a bit divergent - some nations aim to be there by 2030, some aim for 2040; the overall picture is that it will take the better part of a decade of more for EVs to take over.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使电动汽车的采用不断增长，电动汽车何时成为“常态”仍然有点不同——一些国家的目标是到 2030 年实现，一些国家的目标是到 2040 年实现；总体情况是，电动汽车还需要十年的大部分时间才能接管。</blockquote></p><p> That's a substantial amount of time for growth to unfold, which is where many people get caught only focusing on. NIO and its peers like XPeng and Tesla (TSLA) trade at higher multiples relative to ICE manufacturers that are quickly shifting into EVs. The three trade at 13-14.5x 2021 EV/sales, while Ford (F) and GM (GM) trade at ~1.4x 2021 EV/sales; this provides evidence that the leading pure-play EV manufacturers are valued higher for both their hyper-growth prospects and disruptive factors as EV adoption is poised to accelerate.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长展开的大量时间，这是许多人只关注的地方。与快速转向电动汽车的内燃机制造商相比，蔚来及其同行小鹏汽车和特斯拉（TSLA）的市盈率更高。这三家公司的交易价格为 2021 年电动汽车/销量的 13-14.5 倍，而福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 的交易价格约为 2021 年电动汽车/销量的 1.4 倍；这提供了证据，表明随着电动汽车采用的加速，领先的纯电动汽车制造商因其高速增长前景和颠覆性因素而受到更高的估值。</blockquote></p><p> With high multiples for growth and disruption, multiple expansion simply provides free money as growth continues; multiple contraction, on the other hand, could make it harder to see significant profits. If EVs are expected to take over and be the primary system on the road, can they continue to command double-digit EV/sales multiples, or will these manufacturers become the new \"ICE\" and trade at low multiples due to the amount of competition in the market and the shift to becoming the dominant technology?</p><p><blockquote>由于增长和中断的高倍数，随着增长的继续，倍数扩张只是提供免费的资金；另一方面，多重收缩可能会使看到可观的利润变得更加困难。如果电动汽车有望接管并成为道路上的主要系统，它们能否继续获得两位数的电动汽车/销售倍数，或者这些制造商会成为新的“冰”，并由于市场竞争的激烈程度和成为主导技术的转变而以低倍数进行交易？</blockquote></p><p> Of course an argument can be made that EVs are only getting smarter and more technologically advanced with autonomous driving and virtual cockpits and more, but this is the case with cars in general - the technology is only improving, and it could be harder to gain a technological edge in five or ten years' time to garner premium multiples relative to peers on a tech basis. Competition and leveling of the playing field as EVs become the dominant tech on the road could serve to bring multiples lower as every manufacturer will be fighting for the same pie - the disruptive factor will have eroded.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有人可能会说，电动汽车只会通过自动驾驶、虚拟驾驶舱等功能变得更加智能和技术先进，但汽车的情况总体上就是如此——技术只会不断进步，而且可能会更难在五年或十年内获得技术优势，以在技术上相对于同行获得溢价倍数。随着电动汽车成为道路上的主导技术，竞争和公平竞争可能会降低市盈率，因为每个制造商都将争夺同一个蛋糕——破坏性因素将会被侵蚀。</blockquote></p><p> This isn't just a potential headwind for NIO, but for XPeng and other EV players that have earned huge valuations relative to revenues for the growth and disruption story. Assuming that by 2023, NIO's revenues are projected reach $12.5 billion, but forward EV/sales has fallen from the current ~14x to ~10x, that represents about 50% upside to $75 to a $125 billion valuation. However, if NIO can sustain its EV/sales multiple profile as deliveries grow and tap into new geographies, the upside potential grows substantially.</p><p><blockquote>这不仅是蔚来的潜在阻力，也是小鹏汽车和其他电动汽车公司的潜在阻力，这些公司因增长和颠覆故事而获得了相对于收入的巨大估值。假设到 2023 年，蔚来汽车的收入预计将达到 125 亿美元，但远期电动汽车/销量已从目前的约 14 倍降至约 10 倍，估值上涨约 50%，达到 75 美元至 1250 亿美元。然而，如果蔚来能够随着交付量的增长和开拓新的地区，维持其电动汽车/销量的多重形势，那么上行潜力将会大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总的</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has found its groove again with June deliveries reaching a new monthly record, pushing Q2 deliveries to the high end of guidance given during the chip shortage. The manufacturer is showing the ability to perform regardless of the obstacles in the industry, and is setting itself up to reach 87,500 deliveries for the year with strong seasonality in 2H. Revenues are expected to grow for a second straight year at triple-digit rates to RMB32.5-RMB33.5 billion, with NIO continuing its growth story internationally and domestically.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来再次找到了最佳状态，6 月份的交付量创下了新的月度记录，将第二季度的交付量推至芯片短缺期间给出的指导的高端。该制造商显示出无论行业障碍如何都有能力履行职责，并计划在 2 小时内达到 87,500 辆交付量，具有很强的季节性。收入预计将连续第二年以三位数增长率增长至人民币325亿元至人民币335亿元，蔚来在国际和国内继续保持增长。</blockquote></p><p> While its growth is visible, one of NIO's bigger threats moving forward doesn't stem from the business, but rather the valuation. EV companies are trading at higher multiples than ICE manufacturers due to faster growth, disruption, and tech, but if EVs are expected to become the standard, more competition is likely to erode the premiums attached to growth and disruption.</p><p><blockquote>虽然蔚来汽车的增长是显而易见的，但蔚来汽车未来面临的更大威胁之一并非来自业务，而是来自估值。由于更快的增长、颠覆和技术，电动汽车公司的市盈率高于内燃机制造商，但如果电动汽车有望成为标准，更多的竞争可能会侵蚀增长和颠覆带来的溢价。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Therefore, multiple contraction could be the long-term headwind for shares, as ICE manufacturers, the old standard, trade at much lower EV/sales multiples. Given the strong rally over the past six weeks, NIO's valuation brings shares back to a more neutral outlook, down from the bullish stances from March 3 to June 1 when the valuation was more attractive.</p><p><blockquote>因此，倍数收缩可能是股价的长期阻力，因为内燃机制造商（旧标准）的电动汽车/销售倍数要低得多。鉴于过去六周的强劲反弹，蔚来汽车的估值使股价回到了更加中性的前景，低于 3 月 3 日至 6 月 1 日估值更具吸引力的看涨立场。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Leading The Way, But Watching Valuation Multiples<blockquote>蔚来：领先，但关注估值倍数</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Leading The Way, But Watching Valuation Multiples<blockquote>蔚来：领先，但关注估值倍数</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 17:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>After two months of relatively weaker deliveries from some chip shortage impacts, NIO regained its stride and posted another monthly delivery record for June.</li> <li>Deliveries were 8,083 vehicles, pushing Q2 to 21,896 vehicles, +20.4% growth from Q1 even with chip shortage impacts early in the quarter.</li> <li>While NIO still leads the way in the domestic Chinese group, XPeng is quickly catching up in terms of delivery numbers.</li> <li>Even with visible growth catalysts, expectations for EVs to become the new standard raise risks to multiple contraction from erosion of hyper-growth/disruption multiples.</li> <li>Given the strong rally over the past six weeks, NIO's valuation brings shares back to a more neutral outlook, down from the bullish stances from March 3 to June 1.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56e66e8847024b9f76f7e620aef0619c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"576\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于一些芯片短缺的影响，两个月的交付量相对疲软，蔚来重新振作起来，并创下了 6 月份的另一项月度交付记录。</li><li>交付量为 8,083 辆，使第二季度达到 21,896 辆，尽管本季度初受到芯片短缺的影响，但仍比第一季度增长 20.4%。</li><li>虽然蔚来在中国国内集团中仍然处于领先地位，但小鹏汽车在交付量方面正在迅速迎头赶上。</li><li>即使有可见的增长催化剂，电动汽车成为新标准的预期也会增加高速增长/中断倍数侵蚀导致倍数收缩的风险。</li><li>鉴于过去六周的强劲反弹，蔚来汽车的估值使其股价从 3 月 3 日至 6 月 1 日的看涨立场回落至更加中性的前景。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> EV companies are finding themselves back in favor with investors, with a handful of manufacturers seeing double and triple-digit rallies in a six-week span since mid-May. NIO (NIO) is one of those, with shares up over 60% in that period as the manufacturer continues with its growth and international expansion plans, while navigating the chip shortage quite well. June deliveries came in strong, and set the manufacturer up for another success story in 2H, although the strong rally could see a breather soon.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车公司发现自己重新受到投资者的青睐，自 5 月中旬以来的六周内，少数制造商的股价出现了两位数和三位数的上涨。蔚来（蔚来）就是其中之一，该制造商在此期间股价上涨了 60% 以上，因为该制造商继续其增长和国际扩张计划，同时很好地应对了芯片短缺问题。6 月份的交付强劲，为制造商在 2 小时内创造了另一个成功故事，尽管强劲的反弹可能很快就会出现喘息的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Another Monthly Record</b></p><p><blockquote><b>又一个月度记录</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6833a92766699fa10e3dc04cc8c6beab\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"674\"><span>Graphic from NIO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来自蔚来的图形</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After two months of relatively weaker deliveries from some chip shortage impacts, NIO regained its stride and posted another monthly delivery record for June, over 10% from the previous record. The company delivered 8,083 vehicles, pushing Q2 deliveries to 21,896 vehicles, representing +20.4% growth from Q1 even with more of the impacts being felt during the first part of this quarter. Strong demand and higher seasonality of demand likely boosted deliveries amid these impacts.</p><p><blockquote>由于一些芯片短缺的影响，两个月的交付量相对疲软，蔚来重新振作起来，并创下了 6 月份的另一项月度交付记录，比之前的记录高出 10% 以上。该公司交付了 8,083 辆汽车，将第二季度的交付量推至 21,896 辆，比第一季度增长了 20.4%，尽管本季度上半年感受到了更多影响。在这些影响下，强劲的需求和更高的季节性可能会促进交付。</blockquote></p><p> For the YTD period, NIO has delivered just under 42,000 vehicles, just 4% below its full-year tally of 43,728 vehicles during 2020. NIO remains on track to double its deliveries y/y, with 87,500 vehicles a conservative, achievable year-end target as demand seasonality and orders pick up in the winter months. NIO continues to show impressive sequential growth, with Q2 the fifth-consecutive quarter of q/q growth, and a continuation of that does support the year-end delivery target.</p><p><blockquote>年初至今，蔚来已交付近 42,000 辆汽车，仅比 2020 年全年 43,728 辆汽车的交付量低 4%。蔚来的交付量仍有望同比翻一番，随着冬季需求的季节性和订单的增加，87,500 辆汽车是一个保守的、可实现的年终目标。蔚来继续显示出令人印象深刻的环比增长，第二季度连续第五个季度实现环比增长，这种增长的持续确实支持了年终交付目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Not Alone in Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>并非孤军奋战</b></blockquote></p><p> While NIO's deliveries were impressive, showing its ability to perform in the face of an industry-wide headwind, it's not the only Chinese manufacturer to show impressive growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然蔚来汽车的交付量令人印象深刻，显示了其在全行业逆风面前的表现能力，但它并不是唯一一家表现出令人印象深刻增长的中国制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Fast-growing peer XPeng (XPEV) posted a new monthly record for June, delivering 6,565 vehicles, with the P7 recording its best month since launch at 4,730 units. While growth rates were impressive, at +459% y/y for 1H, +617% y/y for the month, and +439% y/y for Q2, XPeng had only just begun its production of the P7 in mid-May 2020 and did not complete its 10,000 unit goal until October 2020, so it isn't necessarily comparable.</p><p><blockquote>快速增长的同行小鹏汽车 (XPEV) 在 6 月份创下了新的月度纪录，交付了 6,565 辆汽车，其中 P7 创下了上市以来的最佳月度交付量，达到 4,730 辆。虽然增长率令人印象深刻，上半年同比增长+459%，本月同比增长+617%，第二季度同比增长+439%，但小鹏汽车在2020年5月中旬才开始生产P7，直到2020年10月才完成其10,000辆的目标，因此不一定具有可比性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7242f091fae22def7e8992e2e355cf79\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"><span>Graphic from XPeng</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>小鹏汽车图形</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What's impressive for XPeng is that even with the later start to production compared to NIO, it's quickly catching up in terms of overall delivery numbers for the monthly and quarterly tallies. June and Q2's figures are just 19% and 21% lower than NIO's, meaning XPeng needs about 25% growth from current levels to match NIO's numbers. As XPeng continues to push its technological edge and broaden its vehicle lineup, with the limited edition P7 Wing and the upcoming G3i next week, it has the necessary catalysts to catch up to NIO relatively soon, as long as its production capacity enables it.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车令人印象深刻的是，尽管生产开始时间比蔚来晚，但它在月度和季度的整体交付量方面很快就赶上了。6 月份和第二季度的数据仅比蔚来低 19% 和 21%，这意味着小鹏汽车需要比当前水平增长约 25% 才能与蔚来汽车的数据相匹配。随着小鹏汽车继续推动其技术优势并扩大其车辆阵容，随着限量版P7 Wing和下周即将推出的G3i，只要其产能允许，它就有必要的催化剂相对较快地赶上蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What's Next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一步是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is one of the top pure-play EV manufacturers, and leading the Chinese cohort, although XPeng is quickly catching up. As a quick recap, NIO is launching in Norway during Q3, and has received the EWVTA for the ES8 while it preps its Oslo NIO House. The company also has a longer-term capacity expansion plan through Neo Park after it doubled its capacity arrangement with JAC. There's a lot to look forward to alongside revenue and delivery growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是顶级纯电动汽车制造商之一，也是中国制造商中的佼佼者，尽管小鹏汽车正在迅速迎头赶上。快速回顾一下，蔚来将于第三季度在挪威推出，并在准备其奥斯陆蔚来之家时获得了ES8的EWVTA。在将与江淮汽车的产能安排加倍后，该公司还通过 Neo Park 制定了长期产能扩张计划。除了收入和交付增长之外，还有很多值得期待的事情。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> European expansion, and inevitably potential North American expansion, are both bright spots for NIO, serving to boost both deliveries and revenues by expanding sales outlets and increasing the number of potential customers. However, the costs to establish sales and service centers, NIO Houses, and possibly production facilities could be large; if NIO decides to keep production solely in China, it brings export costs and tariffs into play.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲扩张以及不可避免的潜在北美扩张都是蔚来的亮点，通过扩大销售点和增加潜在客户数量来提高交付量和收入。然而，建立销售和服务中心、蔚来大楼以及可能的生产设施的成本可能很大；如果蔚来决定只在中国生产，这将使出口成本和关税发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's growth is visible, but the question that remains right now is the valuation - the company continues to perform well regardless of the circumstances, cruising through the chip shortage with slight impacts, but does the overall growth and change in the industry support extensive valuation growth?</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车的增长是显而易见的，但现在剩下的问题是估值——无论在什么情况下，该公司都继续表现良好，在芯片短缺的情况下轻松度过，但行业的整体增长和变化是否支持广泛的估值增长？</blockquote></p><p> NIO's 2021 is poised for a second year of triple digit revenue growth, with RMB32.5-33.5 billion (US$5-5.2 billion) projected for 87,500-90,000 units delivered. While the rate of growth will cool from these levels moving forward (simply due to amounts), revenue growth will remain strong on a dollar basis, up ~US$3.5 billion/~68% for 2022 and ~US$4 billion/~45% for 2023 to reach ~$12.5 billion in revenues.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来 2021 年收入将连续第二年实现三位数增长，预计交付 87,500-90,000 辆汽车，达到 325-335 亿元人民币（5-52 亿美元）。虽然未来增长率将从这些水平降温（仅仅是因为数量），但按美元计算，收入增长将保持强劲，2022 年增长约 35 亿美元/~68%，2023 年增长约 40 亿美元/~45%，达到约 125 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue growth at this degree comes at a time when EV adoption is reaching an inflection point, especially in main market China. As the nation pushes for more and more EVs on the road and more infrastructure supporting it, NIO stands to benefit through BaaS - expansion of battery swap station network to the thousands and eligibility for subsidies regardless of vehicle price.</p><p><blockquote>这种程度的收入增长正值电动汽车采用达到拐点之际，尤其是在中国主要市场。随着国家推动越来越多的电动汽车上路以及更多支持它的基础设施，蔚来将通过 BaaS 受益——将电池换电站网络扩展到数千个，并且无论车辆价格如何都有资格获得补贴。</blockquote></p><p> Yet even with EV adoption growing, the timelines for when EV cars will be the \"norm\" are still a bit divergent - some nations aim to be there by 2030, some aim for 2040; the overall picture is that it will take the better part of a decade of more for EVs to take over.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使电动汽车的采用不断增长，电动汽车何时成为“常态”仍然有点不同——一些国家的目标是到 2030 年实现，一些国家的目标是到 2040 年实现；总体情况是，电动汽车还需要十年的大部分时间才能接管。</blockquote></p><p> That's a substantial amount of time for growth to unfold, which is where many people get caught only focusing on. NIO and its peers like XPeng and Tesla (TSLA) trade at higher multiples relative to ICE manufacturers that are quickly shifting into EVs. The three trade at 13-14.5x 2021 EV/sales, while Ford (F) and GM (GM) trade at ~1.4x 2021 EV/sales; this provides evidence that the leading pure-play EV manufacturers are valued higher for both their hyper-growth prospects and disruptive factors as EV adoption is poised to accelerate.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长展开的大量时间，这是许多人只关注的地方。与快速转向电动汽车的内燃机制造商相比，蔚来及其同行小鹏汽车和特斯拉（TSLA）的市盈率更高。这三家公司的交易价格为 2021 年电动汽车/销量的 13-14.5 倍，而福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 的交易价格约为 2021 年电动汽车/销量的 1.4 倍；这提供了证据，表明随着电动汽车采用的加速，领先的纯电动汽车制造商因其高速增长前景和颠覆性因素而受到更高的估值。</blockquote></p><p> With high multiples for growth and disruption, multiple expansion simply provides free money as growth continues; multiple contraction, on the other hand, could make it harder to see significant profits. If EVs are expected to take over and be the primary system on the road, can they continue to command double-digit EV/sales multiples, or will these manufacturers become the new \"ICE\" and trade at low multiples due to the amount of competition in the market and the shift to becoming the dominant technology?</p><p><blockquote>由于增长和中断的高倍数，随着增长的继续，倍数扩张只是提供免费的资金；另一方面，多重收缩可能会使看到可观的利润变得更加困难。如果电动汽车有望接管并成为道路上的主要系统，它们能否继续获得两位数的电动汽车/销售倍数，或者这些制造商会成为新的“冰”，并由于市场竞争的激烈程度和成为主导技术的转变而以低倍数进行交易？</blockquote></p><p> Of course an argument can be made that EVs are only getting smarter and more technologically advanced with autonomous driving and virtual cockpits and more, but this is the case with cars in general - the technology is only improving, and it could be harder to gain a technological edge in five or ten years' time to garner premium multiples relative to peers on a tech basis. Competition and leveling of the playing field as EVs become the dominant tech on the road could serve to bring multiples lower as every manufacturer will be fighting for the same pie - the disruptive factor will have eroded.</p><p><blockquote>当然，有人可能会说，电动汽车只会通过自动驾驶、虚拟驾驶舱等功能变得更加智能和技术先进，但汽车的情况总体上就是如此——技术只会不断进步，而且可能会更难在五年或十年内获得技术优势，以在技术上相对于同行获得溢价倍数。随着电动汽车成为道路上的主导技术，竞争和公平竞争可能会降低市盈率，因为每个制造商都将争夺同一个蛋糕——破坏性因素将会被侵蚀。</blockquote></p><p> This isn't just a potential headwind for NIO, but for XPeng and other EV players that have earned huge valuations relative to revenues for the growth and disruption story. Assuming that by 2023, NIO's revenues are projected reach $12.5 billion, but forward EV/sales has fallen from the current ~14x to ~10x, that represents about 50% upside to $75 to a $125 billion valuation. However, if NIO can sustain its EV/sales multiple profile as deliveries grow and tap into new geographies, the upside potential grows substantially.</p><p><blockquote>这不仅是蔚来的潜在阻力，也是小鹏汽车和其他电动汽车公司的潜在阻力，这些公司因增长和颠覆故事而获得了相对于收入的巨大估值。假设到 2023 年，蔚来汽车的收入预计将达到 125 亿美元，但远期电动汽车/销量已从目前的约 14 倍降至约 10 倍，估值上涨约 50%，达到 75 美元至 1250 亿美元。然而，如果蔚来能够随着交付量的增长和开拓新的地区，维持其电动汽车/销量的多重形势，那么上行潜力将会大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总的</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO has found its groove again with June deliveries reaching a new monthly record, pushing Q2 deliveries to the high end of guidance given during the chip shortage. The manufacturer is showing the ability to perform regardless of the obstacles in the industry, and is setting itself up to reach 87,500 deliveries for the year with strong seasonality in 2H. Revenues are expected to grow for a second straight year at triple-digit rates to RMB32.5-RMB33.5 billion, with NIO continuing its growth story internationally and domestically.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来再次找到了最佳状态，6 月份的交付量创下了新的月度记录，将第二季度的交付量推至芯片短缺期间给出的指导的高端。该制造商显示出无论行业障碍如何都有能力履行职责，并计划在 2 小时内达到 87,500 辆交付量，具有很强的季节性。收入预计将连续第二年以三位数增长率增长至人民币325亿元至人民币335亿元，蔚来在国际和国内继续保持增长。</blockquote></p><p> While its growth is visible, one of NIO's bigger threats moving forward doesn't stem from the business, but rather the valuation. EV companies are trading at higher multiples than ICE manufacturers due to faster growth, disruption, and tech, but if EVs are expected to become the standard, more competition is likely to erode the premiums attached to growth and disruption.</p><p><blockquote>虽然蔚来汽车的增长是显而易见的，但蔚来汽车未来面临的更大威胁之一并非来自业务，而是来自估值。由于更快的增长、颠覆和技术，电动汽车公司的市盈率高于内燃机制造商，但如果电动汽车有望成为标准，更多的竞争可能会侵蚀增长和颠覆带来的溢价。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Therefore, multiple contraction could be the long-term headwind for shares, as ICE manufacturers, the old standard, trade at much lower EV/sales multiples. Given the strong rally over the past six weeks, NIO's valuation brings shares back to a more neutral outlook, down from the bullish stances from March 3 to June 1 when the valuation was more attractive.</p><p><blockquote>因此，倍数收缩可能是股价的长期阻力，因为内燃机制造商（旧标准）的电动汽车/销售倍数要低得多。鉴于过去六周的强劲反弹，蔚来汽车的估值使股价回到了更加中性的前景，低于 3 月 3 日至 6 月 1 日估值更具吸引力的看涨立场。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437567-nio-leading-the-way-watching-valuation-multiples\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437567-nio-leading-the-way-watching-valuation-multiples","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106243819","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter two months of relatively weaker deliveries from some chip shortage impacts, NIO regained its stride and posted another monthly delivery record for June.\nDeliveries were 8,083 vehicles, pushing Q2 to 21,896 vehicles, +20.4% growth from Q1 even with chip shortage impacts early in the quarter.\nWhile NIO still leads the way in the domestic Chinese group, XPeng is quickly catching up in terms of delivery numbers.\nEven with visible growth catalysts, expectations for EVs to become the new standard raise risks to multiple contraction from erosion of hyper-growth/disruption multiples.\nGiven the strong rally over the past six weeks, NIO's valuation brings shares back to a more neutral outlook, down from the bullish stances from March 3 to June 1.\n\nAndy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nEV companies are finding themselves back in favor with investors, with a handful of manufacturers seeing double and triple-digit rallies in a six-week span since mid-May. NIO (NIO) is one of those, with shares up over 60% in that period as the manufacturer continues with its growth and international expansion plans, while navigating the chip shortage quite well. June deliveries came in strong, and set the manufacturer up for another success story in 2H, although the strong rally could see a breather soon.\nAnother Monthly Record\nGraphic from NIO\nAfter two months of relatively weaker deliveries from some chip shortage impacts, NIO regained its stride and posted another monthly delivery record for June, over 10% from the previous record. The company delivered 8,083 vehicles, pushing Q2 deliveries to 21,896 vehicles, representing +20.4% growth from Q1 even with more of the impacts being felt during the first part of this quarter. Strong demand and higher seasonality of demand likely boosted deliveries amid these impacts.\nFor the YTD period, NIO has delivered just under 42,000 vehicles, just 4% below its full-year tally of 43,728 vehicles during 2020. NIO remains on track to double its deliveries y/y, with 87,500 vehicles a conservative, achievable year-end target as demand seasonality and orders pick up in the winter months. NIO continues to show impressive sequential growth, with Q2 the fifth-consecutive quarter of q/q growth, and a continuation of that does support the year-end delivery target.\nNot Alone in Growth\nWhile NIO's deliveries were impressive, showing its ability to perform in the face of an industry-wide headwind, it's not the only Chinese manufacturer to show impressive growth.\nFast-growing peer XPeng (XPEV) posted a new monthly record for June, delivering 6,565 vehicles, with the P7 recording its best month since launch at 4,730 units. While growth rates were impressive, at +459% y/y for 1H, +617% y/y for the month, and +439% y/y for Q2, XPeng had only just begun its production of the P7 in mid-May 2020 and did not complete its 10,000 unit goal until October 2020, so it isn't necessarily comparable.\nGraphic from XPeng\nWhat's impressive for XPeng is that even with the later start to production compared to NIO, it's quickly catching up in terms of overall delivery numbers for the monthly and quarterly tallies. June and Q2's figures are just 19% and 21% lower than NIO's, meaning XPeng needs about 25% growth from current levels to match NIO's numbers. As XPeng continues to push its technological edge and broaden its vehicle lineup, with the limited edition P7 Wing and the upcoming G3i next week, it has the necessary catalysts to catch up to NIO relatively soon, as long as its production capacity enables it.\nWhat's Next?\nNIO is one of the top pure-play EV manufacturers, and leading the Chinese cohort, although XPeng is quickly catching up. As a quick recap, NIO is launching in Norway during Q3, and has received the EWVTA for the ES8 while it preps its Oslo NIO House. The company also has a longer-term capacity expansion plan through Neo Park after it doubled its capacity arrangement with JAC. There's a lot to look forward to alongside revenue and delivery growth.\nEuropean expansion, and inevitably potential North American expansion, are both bright spots for NIO, serving to boost both deliveries and revenues by expanding sales outlets and increasing the number of potential customers. However, the costs to establish sales and service centers, NIO Houses, and possibly production facilities could be large; if NIO decides to keep production solely in China, it brings export costs and tariffs into play.\nNIO's growth is visible, but the question that remains right now is the valuation - the company continues to perform well regardless of the circumstances, cruising through the chip shortage with slight impacts, but does the overall growth and change in the industry support extensive valuation growth?\nNIO's 2021 is poised for a second year of triple digit revenue growth, with RMB32.5-33.5 billion (US$5-5.2 billion) projected for 87,500-90,000 units delivered. While the rate of growth will cool from these levels moving forward (simply due to amounts), revenue growth will remain strong on a dollar basis, up ~US$3.5 billion/~68% for 2022 and ~US$4 billion/~45% for 2023 to reach ~$12.5 billion in revenues.\nRevenue growth at this degree comes at a time when EV adoption is reaching an inflection point, especially in main market China. As the nation pushes for more and more EVs on the road and more infrastructure supporting it, NIO stands to benefit through BaaS - expansion of battery swap station network to the thousands and eligibility for subsidies regardless of vehicle price.\nYet even with EV adoption growing, the timelines for when EV cars will be the \"norm\" are still a bit divergent - some nations aim to be there by 2030, some aim for 2040; the overall picture is that it will take the better part of a decade of more for EVs to take over.\nThat's a substantial amount of time for growth to unfold, which is where many people get caught only focusing on. NIO and its peers like XPeng and Tesla (TSLA) trade at higher multiples relative to ICE manufacturers that are quickly shifting into EVs. The three trade at 13-14.5x 2021 EV/sales, while Ford (F) and GM (GM) trade at ~1.4x 2021 EV/sales; this provides evidence that the leading pure-play EV manufacturers are valued higher for both their hyper-growth prospects and disruptive factors as EV adoption is poised to accelerate.\nWith high multiples for growth and disruption, multiple expansion simply provides free money as growth continues; multiple contraction, on the other hand, could make it harder to see significant profits. If EVs are expected to take over and be the primary system on the road, can they continue to command double-digit EV/sales multiples, or will these manufacturers become the new \"ICE\" and trade at low multiples due to the amount of competition in the market and the shift to becoming the dominant technology?\nOf course an argument can be made that EVs are only getting smarter and more technologically advanced with autonomous driving and virtual cockpits and more, but this is the case with cars in general - the technology is only improving, and it could be harder to gain a technological edge in five or ten years' time to garner premium multiples relative to peers on a tech basis. Competition and leveling of the playing field as EVs become the dominant tech on the road could serve to bring multiples lower as every manufacturer will be fighting for the same pie - the disruptive factor will have eroded.\nThis isn't just a potential headwind for NIO, but for XPeng and other EV players that have earned huge valuations relative to revenues for the growth and disruption story. Assuming that by 2023, NIO's revenues are projected reach $12.5 billion, but forward EV/sales has fallen from the current ~14x to ~10x, that represents about 50% upside to $75 to a $125 billion valuation. However, if NIO can sustain its EV/sales multiple profile as deliveries grow and tap into new geographies, the upside potential grows substantially.\nOverall\nNIO has found its groove again with June deliveries reaching a new monthly record, pushing Q2 deliveries to the high end of guidance given during the chip shortage. The manufacturer is showing the ability to perform regardless of the obstacles in the industry, and is setting itself up to reach 87,500 deliveries for the year with strong seasonality in 2H. Revenues are expected to grow for a second straight year at triple-digit rates to RMB32.5-RMB33.5 billion, with NIO continuing its growth story internationally and domestically.\nWhile its growth is visible, one of NIO's bigger threats moving forward doesn't stem from the business, but rather the valuation. EV companies are trading at higher multiples than ICE manufacturers due to faster growth, disruption, and tech, but if EVs are expected to become the standard, more competition is likely to erode the premiums attached to growth and disruption.\nTherefore, multiple contraction could be the long-term headwind for shares, as ICE manufacturers, the old standard, trade at much lower EV/sales multiples. Given the strong rally over the past six weeks, NIO's valuation brings shares back to a more neutral outlook, down from the bullish stances from March 3 to June 1 when the valuation was more attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1300,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/156478179"}
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