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2021-06-29
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Signs the 2020 recession may already be over<blockquote>有迹象表明2020年经济衰退可能已经结束</blockquote>
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Yet it sure feels like the economy is back in recovery mode with upbeat signs in jobs, housing and stocks.</p><p><blockquote>官方仲裁者美国国家经济研究局尚未表示经济低迷已经结束。然而，随着就业、住房和股市的乐观迹象，经济确实回到了复苏模式。</blockquote></p><p> Some experts think this recession is a mirror image of the one in 1918, which was also sparked by a pandemic: the global influenza outbreak. That downturn lasted just 7 months and was the second shortest on record.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家认为这次衰退是1918年衰退的镜像，那次衰退也是由一场大流行引发的：全球流感爆发。那次低迷仅持续了7个月，是有记录以来第二短的。</blockquote></p><p> Could the Covid recession follow a similar path? We'll have to wait for a ruling from the NBER, the organization that declares the beginning and end of economic cycles — which usually takes several months until after a recession is over to declare the end.</p><p><blockquote>Covid衰退会遵循类似的路径吗？我们必须等待NBER的裁决，该组织宣布经济周期的开始和结束——通常需要几个月的时间，直到衰退结束后才宣布结束。</blockquote></p><p> There are certainly pockets of the economy still far from pre-February 2020 levels, like small businesses, retail and restaurants.</p><p><blockquote>当然，仍有一些经济领域远未达到2020年2月之前的水平，例如小企业、零售和餐馆。</blockquote></p><p> But plenty of areas are getting better. GDP is growing again, surging for the past three quarters after dips in the first half of last year. The job market is recovering too, as workers in hard-hit services sectors return to employment. Earnings have rebounded along with the stock market. The housing market continues to sizzle.</p><p><blockquote>但是很多领域都在变得更好。GDP再次增长，在去年上半年下降后，过去三个季度飙升。随着遭受重创的服务业工人重返工作岗位，就业市场也在复苏。盈利随着股市反弹。房地产市场继续火爆。</blockquote></p><p> And it's pretty much back to business as usual for many major cities.</p><p><blockquote>对于许多主要城市来说，一切都恢复了正常。</blockquote></p><p> \"We're not in a downturn anymore. Things are incredibly robust and it's almost a euphoria,\" said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), a real estate firm that lends to apartment owners and commercial real estate firms.</p><p><blockquote>向公寓业主和商业房地产公司提供贷款的房地产公司Arbor Realty Trust(ABR)董事长兼首席执行官伊万·考夫曼(Ivan Kaufman)表示：“我们不再处于低迷状态。情况非常强劲，几乎令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Default rates are relatively low for Kaufman's company's clients, he said, adding that rents — which took a brief hit last year — are starting to climb again. Demand for leases is climbing as well.</p><p><blockquote>他说，考夫曼公司客户的违约率相对较低，并补充说租金——去年受到短暂打击——又开始攀升。租赁需求也在攀升。</blockquote></p><p> The demise of urban America may have been exaggerated.</p><p><blockquote>美国城市的消亡可能被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue that existed with Covid was that nobody was going into cities,\" Kaufman said. \"That phenomenon created some vacancies. But that is over.\"</p><p><blockquote>考夫曼说：“新冠病毒存在的问题是没有人进入城市。”“这种现象造成了一些空缺。但这已经结束了。”</blockquote></p><p> 'Strong...to quite strong'</p><p><blockquote>“强……到相当强”</blockquote></p><p> Urban real estate isn't the only sector of the economy that has come roaring back. Money management firm ClearBridge Investments has a recession risk dashboard that looks at a dozen economic indicators, including retail sales, housing, commodity prices, the job market and trucking shipments.</p><p><blockquote>城市房地产并不是唯一复苏的经济部门。资金管理公司ClearBridge Investments拥有一个经济衰退风险仪表板，该仪表板着眼于十几项经济指标，包括零售销售、住房、大宗商品价格、就业市场和卡车运输。</blockquote></p><p> ClearBridge said earlier this month that most of these measures bottomed out in May 2020 and all 12 indicators are now flashing recovery signs.</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge本月早些时候表示，这些指标中的大多数在2020年5月触底，所有12项指标现在都显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at ClearBridge said in a report that with this in mind, they think the recession may have ended about a year ago — just four months after it began. They even used a joke from \"Meet the Parents\" to describe the economy, saying that is \"strong ... to quite strong.\"</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge的分析师在一份报告中表示，考虑到这一点，他们认为衰退可能在大约一年前就结束了——距离衰退开始仅四个月。他们甚至用《见见父母》中的一个笑话来描述经济，称其“强劲……到相当强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile investors aren't acting like this is still a recession. The biggest concern now is whether or not the economy will heat up too quickly, forcing the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and raise rates sooner than anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者并没有表现得好像这仍然是一场衰退。现在最大的担忧是经济是否会过快升温，迫使美联储提前缩减购债规模和加息。</blockquote></p><p> \"Every recession is different and this is an unusual one. But the market has clearly moved on from the pandemic,\" said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. \"Investors are focused on inflation. It's the number one, two and three risk.\"</p><p><blockquote>Janus Henderson Investors研究总监马特·庇隆(Matt Peron)表示：“每次衰退都是不同的，这是一次不寻常的衰退。但市场显然已经从疫情中走出来。”“投资者关注通胀。这是第一、第二和第三大风险。”</blockquote></p><p> Fear the double dip?</p><p><blockquote>害怕二次探底？</blockquote></p><p> Beyond worries about the Fed taking away the proverbial punch bowl and cutting back on stimulus too soon, Peron said, investors also fear the central bank will not act quickly enough to tamp down inflation pressures before they run out of control.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示，除了担心美联储拿走众所周知的潘趣酒碗并过早削减刺激措施外，投资者还担心美联储不会迅速采取行动，在通胀压力失控之前抑制通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to walk a tightrope,\" Peron said, adding that a central bank mistake could lead to a so-called double dip recession, when the economy quickly contracts again after a recovery.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示：“美联储必须走钢丝。”他补充说，央行的错误可能会导致所谓的双底衰退，即经济在复苏后迅速再次收缩。</blockquote></p><p> That's what happened after the historically brief recession of 1980, which at only six months is the shortest on record. A series of sharp rate hikes by the Fed helped lead to another recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982.</p><p><blockquote>这就是1980年历史上短暂的衰退之后发生的情况，那次衰退只有六个月，是有记录以来最短的一次。美联储的一系列大幅加息导致了另一场从1981年7月持续到1982年11月的衰退。</blockquote></p><p> But many Wall Street experts and economists believe the Fed won't be forced to raise rates anytime soon or that inflation will run amok.</p><p><blockquote>但许多华尔街专家和经济学家认为，美联储不会很快被迫加息，否则通胀将会失控。</blockquote></p><p> \"A period of persistent inflation driven by higher wages feeding into higher prices could lead to tighter financial conditions and put this young expansion in jeopardy,\" strategists at Nuveen said in a report Monday. \"But we remain in the camp that expects inflation to moderate from here.\"</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师周一在一份报告中表示：“工资上涨导致物价上涨导致的持续通胀可能会导致金融状况收紧，并使这种年轻的扩张面临危险。”“但我们仍然属于预计通胀将从现在开始放缓的阵营。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists believe the labor market and supply shortages caused by the pandemic should soon abate. That will reduce pressure on wage growth, a key component of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>策略师认为，疫情造成的劳动力市场和供应短缺应该很快就会缓解。这将减轻工资增长的压力，而工资增长是通货膨胀的一个关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> They also think companies have made enough investments to boost productivity, which should mean they won't have to pass on the costs of higher commodity prices to consumers.</p><p><blockquote>他们还认为，企业已经进行了足够的投资来提高生产率，这应该意味着他们不必将大宗商品价格上涨的成本转嫁给消费者。</blockquote></p><p> \"We've likely already seen the highest monthly inflation readings of 2021,\" the Nuveen strategists said.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师表示：“我们可能已经看到了2021年最高的月度通胀数据。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If that's the case, the economy could continue to expand for the foreseeable future. The only question now is when the NBER will actually come out and officially declare an end to the 2020 recession.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样的话，在可预见的未来，经济可能会继续扩张。现在唯一的问题是NBER何时会真正站出来正式宣布2020年衰退结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Signs the 2020 recession may already be over<blockquote>有迹象表明2020年经济衰退可能已经结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSigns the 2020 recession may already be over<blockquote>有迹象表明2020年经济衰退可能已经结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 10:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)America's Covid-induced recession has been a painful one — but it could ultimately be short.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN Business）美国由Covid引发的衰退是一场痛苦的衰退，但最终可能是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> The official arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, hasn't said this downturn is over. Yet it sure feels like the economy is back in recovery mode with upbeat signs in jobs, housing and stocks.</p><p><blockquote>官方仲裁者美国国家经济研究局尚未表示经济低迷已经结束。然而，随着就业、住房和股市的乐观迹象，经济确实回到了复苏模式。</blockquote></p><p> Some experts think this recession is a mirror image of the one in 1918, which was also sparked by a pandemic: the global influenza outbreak. That downturn lasted just 7 months and was the second shortest on record.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家认为这次衰退是1918年衰退的镜像，那次衰退也是由一场大流行引发的：全球流感爆发。那次低迷仅持续了7个月，是有记录以来第二短的。</blockquote></p><p> Could the Covid recession follow a similar path? We'll have to wait for a ruling from the NBER, the organization that declares the beginning and end of economic cycles — which usually takes several months until after a recession is over to declare the end.</p><p><blockquote>Covid衰退会遵循类似的路径吗？我们必须等待NBER的裁决，该组织宣布经济周期的开始和结束——通常需要几个月的时间，直到衰退结束后才宣布结束。</blockquote></p><p> There are certainly pockets of the economy still far from pre-February 2020 levels, like small businesses, retail and restaurants.</p><p><blockquote>当然，仍有一些经济领域远未达到2020年2月之前的水平，例如小企业、零售和餐馆。</blockquote></p><p> But plenty of areas are getting better. GDP is growing again, surging for the past three quarters after dips in the first half of last year. The job market is recovering too, as workers in hard-hit services sectors return to employment. Earnings have rebounded along with the stock market. The housing market continues to sizzle.</p><p><blockquote>但是很多领域都在变得更好。GDP再次增长，在去年上半年下降后，过去三个季度飙升。随着遭受重创的服务业工人重返工作岗位，就业市场也在复苏。盈利随着股市反弹。房地产市场继续火爆。</blockquote></p><p> And it's pretty much back to business as usual for many major cities.</p><p><blockquote>对于许多主要城市来说，一切都恢复了正常。</blockquote></p><p> \"We're not in a downturn anymore. Things are incredibly robust and it's almost a euphoria,\" said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), a real estate firm that lends to apartment owners and commercial real estate firms.</p><p><blockquote>向公寓业主和商业房地产公司提供贷款的房地产公司Arbor Realty Trust(ABR)董事长兼首席执行官伊万·考夫曼(Ivan Kaufman)表示：“我们不再处于低迷状态。情况非常强劲，几乎令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Default rates are relatively low for Kaufman's company's clients, he said, adding that rents — which took a brief hit last year — are starting to climb again. Demand for leases is climbing as well.</p><p><blockquote>他说，考夫曼公司客户的违约率相对较低，并补充说租金——去年受到短暂打击——又开始攀升。租赁需求也在攀升。</blockquote></p><p> The demise of urban America may have been exaggerated.</p><p><blockquote>美国城市的消亡可能被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue that existed with Covid was that nobody was going into cities,\" Kaufman said. \"That phenomenon created some vacancies. But that is over.\"</p><p><blockquote>考夫曼说：“新冠病毒存在的问题是没有人进入城市。”“这种现象造成了一些空缺。但这已经结束了。”</blockquote></p><p> 'Strong...to quite strong'</p><p><blockquote>“强……到相当强”</blockquote></p><p> Urban real estate isn't the only sector of the economy that has come roaring back. Money management firm ClearBridge Investments has a recession risk dashboard that looks at a dozen economic indicators, including retail sales, housing, commodity prices, the job market and trucking shipments.</p><p><blockquote>城市房地产并不是唯一复苏的经济部门。资金管理公司ClearBridge Investments拥有一个经济衰退风险仪表板，该仪表板着眼于十几项经济指标，包括零售销售、住房、大宗商品价格、就业市场和卡车运输。</blockquote></p><p> ClearBridge said earlier this month that most of these measures bottomed out in May 2020 and all 12 indicators are now flashing recovery signs.</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge本月早些时候表示，这些指标中的大多数在2020年5月触底，所有12项指标现在都显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at ClearBridge said in a report that with this in mind, they think the recession may have ended about a year ago — just four months after it began. They even used a joke from \"Meet the Parents\" to describe the economy, saying that is \"strong ... to quite strong.\"</p><p><blockquote>ClearBridge的分析师在一份报告中表示，考虑到这一点，他们认为衰退可能在大约一年前就结束了——距离衰退开始仅四个月。他们甚至用《见见父母》中的一个笑话来描述经济，称其“强劲……到相当强劲”。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile investors aren't acting like this is still a recession. The biggest concern now is whether or not the economy will heat up too quickly, forcing the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and raise rates sooner than anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，投资者并没有表现得好像这仍然是一场衰退。现在最大的担忧是经济是否会过快升温，迫使美联储提前缩减购债规模和加息。</blockquote></p><p> \"Every recession is different and this is an unusual one. But the market has clearly moved on from the pandemic,\" said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. \"Investors are focused on inflation. It's the number one, two and three risk.\"</p><p><blockquote>Janus Henderson Investors研究总监马特·庇隆(Matt Peron)表示：“每次衰退都是不同的，这是一次不寻常的衰退。但市场显然已经从疫情中走出来。”“投资者关注通胀。这是第一、第二和第三大风险。”</blockquote></p><p> Fear the double dip?</p><p><blockquote>害怕二次探底？</blockquote></p><p> Beyond worries about the Fed taking away the proverbial punch bowl and cutting back on stimulus too soon, Peron said, investors also fear the central bank will not act quickly enough to tamp down inflation pressures before they run out of control.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示，除了担心美联储拿走众所周知的潘趣酒碗并过早削减刺激措施外，投资者还担心美联储不会迅速采取行动，在通胀压力失控之前抑制通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"The Fed has to walk a tightrope,\" Peron said, adding that a central bank mistake could lead to a so-called double dip recession, when the economy quickly contracts again after a recovery.</p><p><blockquote>庇隆表示：“美联储必须走钢丝。”他补充说，央行的错误可能会导致所谓的双底衰退，即经济在复苏后迅速再次收缩。</blockquote></p><p> That's what happened after the historically brief recession of 1980, which at only six months is the shortest on record. A series of sharp rate hikes by the Fed helped lead to another recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982.</p><p><blockquote>这就是1980年历史上短暂的衰退之后发生的情况，那次衰退只有六个月，是有记录以来最短的一次。美联储的一系列大幅加息导致了另一场从1981年7月持续到1982年11月的衰退。</blockquote></p><p> But many Wall Street experts and economists believe the Fed won't be forced to raise rates anytime soon or that inflation will run amok.</p><p><blockquote>但许多华尔街专家和经济学家认为，美联储不会很快被迫加息，否则通胀将会失控。</blockquote></p><p> \"A period of persistent inflation driven by higher wages feeding into higher prices could lead to tighter financial conditions and put this young expansion in jeopardy,\" strategists at Nuveen said in a report Monday. \"But we remain in the camp that expects inflation to moderate from here.\"</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师周一在一份报告中表示：“工资上涨导致物价上涨导致的持续通胀可能会导致金融状况收紧，并使这种年轻的扩张面临危险。”“但我们仍然属于预计通胀将从现在开始放缓的阵营。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists believe the labor market and supply shortages caused by the pandemic should soon abate. That will reduce pressure on wage growth, a key component of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>策略师认为，疫情造成的劳动力市场和供应短缺应该很快就会缓解。这将减轻工资增长的压力，而工资增长是通货膨胀的一个关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> They also think companies have made enough investments to boost productivity, which should mean they won't have to pass on the costs of higher commodity prices to consumers.</p><p><blockquote>他们还认为，企业已经进行了足够的投资来提高生产率，这应该意味着他们不必将大宗商品价格上涨的成本转嫁给消费者。</blockquote></p><p> \"We've likely already seen the highest monthly inflation readings of 2021,\" the Nuveen strategists said.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen策略师表示：“我们可能已经看到了2021年最高的月度通胀数据。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If that's the case, the economy could continue to expand for the foreseeable future. The only question now is when the NBER will actually come out and officially declare an end to the 2020 recession.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样的话，在可预见的未来，经济可能会继续扩张。现在唯一的问题是NBER何时会真正站出来正式宣布2020年衰退结束。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/investing/recession-recovery-covid-economy/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/28/investing/recession-recovery-covid-economy/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146874721","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)America's Covid-induced recession has been a painful one — but it could ultimately be short.\nThe official arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, hasn't said this downturn is over. Yet it sure feels like the economy is back in recovery mode with upbeat signs in jobs, housing and stocks.\nSome experts think this recession is a mirror image of the one in 1918, which was also sparked by a pandemic: the global influenza outbreak. That downturn lasted just 7 months and was the second shortest on record.\nCould the Covid recession follow a similar path? We'll have to wait for a ruling from the NBER, the organization that declares the beginning and end of economic cycles — which usually takes several months until after a recession is over to declare the end.\nThere are certainly pockets of the economy still far from pre-February 2020 levels, like small businesses, retail and restaurants.\nBut plenty of areas are getting better. GDP is growing again, surging for the past three quarters after dips in the first half of last year. The job market is recovering too, as workers in hard-hit services sectors return to employment. Earnings have rebounded along with the stock market. The housing market continues to sizzle.\nAnd it's pretty much back to business as usual for many major cities.\n\"We're not in a downturn anymore. Things are incredibly robust and it's almost a euphoria,\" said Ivan Kaufman, chairman and CEO of Arbor Realty Trust (ABR), a real estate firm that lends to apartment owners and commercial real estate firms.\nDefault rates are relatively low for Kaufman's company's clients, he said, adding that rents — which took a brief hit last year — are starting to climb again. Demand for leases is climbing as well.\nThe demise of urban America may have been exaggerated.\n\"The issue that existed with Covid was that nobody was going into cities,\" Kaufman said. \"That phenomenon created some vacancies. But that is over.\"\n'Strong...to quite strong'\nUrban real estate isn't the only sector of the economy that has come roaring back. Money management firm ClearBridge Investments has a recession risk dashboard that looks at a dozen economic indicators, including retail sales, housing, commodity prices, the job market and trucking shipments.\nClearBridge said earlier this month that most of these measures bottomed out in May 2020 and all 12 indicators are now flashing recovery signs.\nAnalysts at ClearBridge said in a report that with this in mind, they think the recession may have ended about a year ago — just four months after it began. They even used a joke from \"Meet the Parents\" to describe the economy, saying that is \"strong ... to quite strong.\"\nMeanwhile investors aren't acting like this is still a recession. The biggest concern now is whether or not the economy will heat up too quickly, forcing the Federal Reserve to taper bond purchases and raise rates sooner than anticipated.\n\"Every recession is different and this is an unusual one. But the market has clearly moved on from the pandemic,\" said Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. \"Investors are focused on inflation. It's the number one, two and three risk.\"\nFear the double dip?\nBeyond worries about the Fed taking away the proverbial punch bowl and cutting back on stimulus too soon, Peron said, investors also fear the central bank will not act quickly enough to tamp down inflation pressures before they run out of control.\n\"The Fed has to walk a tightrope,\" Peron said, adding that a central bank mistake could lead to a so-called double dip recession, when the economy quickly contracts again after a recovery.\nThat's what happened after the historically brief recession of 1980, which at only six months is the shortest on record. A series of sharp rate hikes by the Fed helped lead to another recession that lasted from July 1981 to November 1982.\nBut many Wall Street experts and economists believe the Fed won't be forced to raise rates anytime soon or that inflation will run amok.\n\"A period of persistent inflation driven by higher wages feeding into higher prices could lead to tighter financial conditions and put this young expansion in jeopardy,\" strategists at Nuveen said in a report Monday. \"But we remain in the camp that expects inflation to moderate from here.\"\nThe strategists believe the labor market and supply shortages caused by the pandemic should soon abate. That will reduce pressure on wage growth, a key component of inflation.\nThey also think companies have made enough investments to boost productivity, which should mean they won't have to pass on the costs of higher commodity prices to consumers.\n\"We've likely already seen the highest monthly inflation readings of 2021,\" the Nuveen strategists said.\nIf that's the case, the economy could continue to expand for the foreseeable future. The only question now is when the NBER will actually come out and officially declare an end to the 2020 recession.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2992,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/159397641"}
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