306f459c
2021-06-17
Wtonks
Why a crash in meme stocks AMC and GameStop looks more likely now<blockquote>为什么模因股票AMC和游戏驿站现在看起来更有可能崩盘</blockquote>
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Could insider sales of meme stocks signal a coming crash in their share price? The empirical research suggests the answer is yes.</p><p><blockquote>大量内幕抛售是股票价格虚高的警告信号。meme股票的内幕抛售是否预示着其股价即将暴跌？实证研究表明答案是肯定的。</blockquote></p><p> The substantial stock sales by directors of GameStop GME, +0.21% and AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, -6.54% didn’t surprise most rational investors. It’s clear that the current prices of these and other meme stocks are vastly inflated. In fact, investors should have seen AMC’s issuing new shares at its bloated price to raise capital as a warning sign.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站GME（+0.21%）和AMC院线控股AMC（-6.54%）董事的大量股票出售并没有让大多数理性投资者感到惊讶。很明显，这些和其他模因股票的当前价格被大大夸大了。事实上，投资者应该将AMC以过高的价格发行新股来筹集资金视为一个警告信号。</blockquote></p><p> Critics might lambaste the opportunism of such insider selling, citing corporate governance gurus encouraging director ownership to align interests with public shareholders. But who can blame them? What is surprising is that more outside shareholders haven’t taken the signal to sell. It’s common for savvy investors to scan insider purchases and sales for signs of good or bad news ahead. Aggregate insider trading levels presage total stock returns for up to two years, according to the research of University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun, author of Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading.</p><p><blockquote>批评者可能会痛斥这种内幕交易的机会主义，理由是公司治理大师鼓励董事所有权与公众股东的利益保持一致。但是谁能责怪他们呢？令人惊讶的是，更多的外部股东并没有接受抛售信号。对于精明的投资者来说，扫描内幕交易以寻找未来好消息或坏消息的迹象是很常见的。根据《内幕交易投资情报》一书的作者、密歇根大学金融学教授Nejat Seyhun的研究，总体内幕交易水平预示着长达两年的股票总回报。</blockquote></p><p> That said, some insider trades contain no signal at all, as directors buy when required to maintain mandatory ownership levels and sell when they need cash or to diversify investments. Moreover, insiders face reputational and legal risks when trading, so are careful not to signal hoarding good or bad news, lest they veer into unethical or illegal insider trading.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，一些内幕交易根本不包含任何信号，因为董事在需要维持强制性所有权水平时买入，在需要现金或分散投资时卖出。此外，内部人士在交易时面临声誉和法律风险，因此要小心不要发出囤积好消息或坏消息的信号，以免他们转向不道德或非法的内幕交易。</blockquote></p><p> But these meme-stock cases seem clearer. At AMC, for instance, many directors all sold around the same time in large numbers, near the company’s recent stock offering. Research by Durham University accounting professor Guanming He and colleagues indicates that the presence of concentrated insider stock-selling is associated with an increase in stock-price crash risk. That stands to reason: insiders know more than outsiders, whether investors, strategists or economists.</p><p><blockquote>但这些模因股票案例似乎更清晰。例如，在AMC，许多董事几乎在同一时间大量出售股票，接近该公司最近的股票发行。杜伦大学会计学教授何冠明及其同事的研究表明，集中的内幕股票抛售与股价崩盘风险的增加有关。这是显而易见的：无论是投资者、策略师还是经济学家，内部人士比外部人士知道得更多。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one can discern the fickle features of markets that precipitate reversals. But He’s research supports the view that insiders’ anticipation of future stock-price crash risk — from whatever source — does lead them to trim their holdings. In particular, the evidence is that insider sales are associated with 15-month-ahead crash risk.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人能看出市场变化无常的特征会导致逆转。但他的研究支持这样一种观点，即内部人士对未来股价崩盘风险的预期——无论来自何种来源——确实会导致他们减持股票。特别是，有证据表明内幕销售与未来15个月的崩盘风险相关。</blockquote></p><p> Such research may be particularly meaningful in the bizarre context of meme stocks. Compared to conventional stock trading, insiders are poised to make greater profits trading meme stocks and their trades are more informative given the greater degree of noise trading by uninformed traders.</p><p><blockquote>在模因股票的奇异背景下，这样的研究可能特别有意义。与传统股票交易相比，内部人士交易模因股票有望获得更大的利润，而且鉴于不知情交易者的噪音交易程度更大，他们的交易信息也更丰富。</blockquote></p><p> Research on past outcomes is no guarantee of future results, but together with common sense and an appreciation that all bubbles eventually burst, I’d be willing to place my own bets. The 15-month time frame would put the bursting of the GameStop bubble in the first quarter of 2022 and AMC around the third quarter. I’d certainly take both bets before I bought either stock.</p><p><blockquote>对过去结果的研究并不能保证未来的结果，但加上常识和对所有泡沫最终都会破裂的认识，我愿意下自己的赌注。15个月的时间框架将使游戏驿站泡沫在2022年第一季度破裂，AMC在第三季度左右破裂。在购买任何一只股票之前，我肯定会同时下注。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why a crash in meme stocks AMC and GameStop looks more likely now<blockquote>为什么模因股票AMC和游戏驿站现在看起来更有可能崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy a crash in meme stocks AMC and GameStop looks more likely now<blockquote>为什么模因股票AMC和游戏驿站现在看起来更有可能崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 11:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> Heavy insider selling is a warning sign that a stock’s price is inflated. Could insider sales of meme stocks signal a coming crash in their share price? The empirical research suggests the answer is yes.</p><p><blockquote>大量内幕抛售是股票价格虚高的警告信号。meme股票的内幕抛售是否预示着其股价即将暴跌？实证研究表明答案是肯定的。</blockquote></p><p> The substantial stock sales by directors of GameStop GME, +0.21% and AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, -6.54% didn’t surprise most rational investors. It’s clear that the current prices of these and other meme stocks are vastly inflated. In fact, investors should have seen AMC’s issuing new shares at its bloated price to raise capital as a warning sign.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站GME（+0.21%）和AMC院线控股AMC（-6.54%）董事的大量股票出售并没有让大多数理性投资者感到惊讶。很明显，这些和其他模因股票的当前价格被大大夸大了。事实上，投资者应该将AMC以过高的价格发行新股来筹集资金视为一个警告信号。</blockquote></p><p> Critics might lambaste the opportunism of such insider selling, citing corporate governance gurus encouraging director ownership to align interests with public shareholders. But who can blame them? What is surprising is that more outside shareholders haven’t taken the signal to sell. It’s common for savvy investors to scan insider purchases and sales for signs of good or bad news ahead. Aggregate insider trading levels presage total stock returns for up to two years, according to the research of University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun, author of Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading.</p><p><blockquote>批评者可能会痛斥这种内幕交易的机会主义，理由是公司治理大师鼓励董事所有权与公众股东的利益保持一致。但是谁能责怪他们呢？令人惊讶的是，更多的外部股东并没有接受抛售信号。对于精明的投资者来说，扫描内幕交易以寻找未来好消息或坏消息的迹象是很常见的。根据《内幕交易投资情报》一书的作者、密歇根大学金融学教授Nejat Seyhun的研究，总体内幕交易水平预示着长达两年的股票总回报。</blockquote></p><p> That said, some insider trades contain no signal at all, as directors buy when required to maintain mandatory ownership levels and sell when they need cash or to diversify investments. Moreover, insiders face reputational and legal risks when trading, so are careful not to signal hoarding good or bad news, lest they veer into unethical or illegal insider trading.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，一些内幕交易根本不包含任何信号，因为董事在需要维持强制性所有权水平时买入，在需要现金或分散投资时卖出。此外，内部人士在交易时面临声誉和法律风险，因此要小心不要发出囤积好消息或坏消息的信号，以免他们转向不道德或非法的内幕交易。</blockquote></p><p> But these meme-stock cases seem clearer. At AMC, for instance, many directors all sold around the same time in large numbers, near the company’s recent stock offering. Research by Durham University accounting professor Guanming He and colleagues indicates that the presence of concentrated insider stock-selling is associated with an increase in stock-price crash risk. That stands to reason: insiders know more than outsiders, whether investors, strategists or economists.</p><p><blockquote>但这些模因股票案例似乎更清晰。例如，在AMC，许多董事几乎在同一时间大量出售股票，接近该公司最近的股票发行。杜伦大学会计学教授何冠明及其同事的研究表明，集中的内幕股票抛售与股价崩盘风险的增加有关。这是显而易见的：无论是投资者、策略师还是经济学家，内部人士比外部人士知道得更多。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one can discern the fickle features of markets that precipitate reversals. But He’s research supports the view that insiders’ anticipation of future stock-price crash risk — from whatever source — does lead them to trim their holdings. In particular, the evidence is that insider sales are associated with 15-month-ahead crash risk.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人能看出市场变化无常的特征会导致逆转。但他的研究支持这样一种观点，即内部人士对未来股价崩盘风险的预期——无论来自何种来源——确实会导致他们减持股票。特别是，有证据表明内幕销售与未来15个月的崩盘风险相关。</blockquote></p><p> Such research may be particularly meaningful in the bizarre context of meme stocks. Compared to conventional stock trading, insiders are poised to make greater profits trading meme stocks and their trades are more informative given the greater degree of noise trading by uninformed traders.</p><p><blockquote>在模因股票的奇异背景下，这样的研究可能特别有意义。与传统股票交易相比，内部人士交易模因股票有望获得更大的利润，而且鉴于不知情交易者的噪音交易程度更大，他们的交易信息也更丰富。</blockquote></p><p> Research on past outcomes is no guarantee of future results, but together with common sense and an appreciation that all bubbles eventually burst, I’d be willing to place my own bets. The 15-month time frame would put the bursting of the GameStop bubble in the first quarter of 2022 and AMC around the third quarter. I’d certainly take both bets before I bought either stock.</p><p><blockquote>对过去结果的研究并不能保证未来的结果，但加上常识和对所有泡沫最终都会破裂的认识，我愿意下自己的赌注。15个月的时间框架将使游戏驿站泡沫在2022年第一季度破裂，AMC在第三季度左右破裂。在购买任何一只股票之前，我肯定会同时下注。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-crash-in-meme-stocks-amc-and-gamestop-looks-more-likely-now-11623810848?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-crash-in-meme-stocks-amc-and-gamestop-looks-more-likely-now-11623810848?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1133173445","content_text":"Heavy insider selling is a warning sign that a stock’s price is inflated.\n\nCould insider sales of meme stocks signal a coming crash in their share price? The empirical research suggests the answer is yes.\nThe substantial stock sales by directors of GameStop GME, +0.21% and AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, -6.54% didn’t surprise most rational investors. It’s clear that the current prices of these and other meme stocks are vastly inflated. In fact, investors should have seen AMC’s issuing new shares at its bloated price to raise capital as a warning sign.\nCritics might lambaste the opportunism of such insider selling, citing corporate governance gurus encouraging director ownership to align interests with public shareholders. But who can blame them? What is surprising is that more outside shareholders haven’t taken the signal to sell. It’s common for savvy investors to scan insider purchases and sales for signs of good or bad news ahead. Aggregate insider trading levels presage total stock returns for up to two years, according to the research of University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun, author of Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading.\nThat said, some insider trades contain no signal at all, as directors buy when required to maintain mandatory ownership levels and sell when they need cash or to diversify investments. Moreover, insiders face reputational and legal risks when trading, so are careful not to signal hoarding good or bad news, lest they veer into unethical or illegal insider trading.\nBut these meme-stock cases seem clearer. At AMC, for instance, many directors all sold around the same time in large numbers, near the company’s recent stock offering. Research by Durham University accounting professor Guanming He and colleagues indicates that the presence of concentrated insider stock-selling is associated with an increase in stock-price crash risk. That stands to reason: insiders know more than outsiders, whether investors, strategists or economists.\nOf course, no one can discern the fickle features of markets that precipitate reversals. But He’s research supports the view that insiders’ anticipation of future stock-price crash risk — from whatever source — does lead them to trim their holdings. In particular, the evidence is that insider sales are associated with 15-month-ahead crash risk.\nSuch research may be particularly meaningful in the bizarre context of meme stocks. Compared to conventional stock trading, insiders are poised to make greater profits trading meme stocks and their trades are more informative given the greater degree of noise trading by uninformed traders.\nResearch on past outcomes is no guarantee of future results, but together with common sense and an appreciation that all bubbles eventually burst, I’d be willing to place my own bets. The 15-month time frame would put the bursting of the GameStop bubble in the first quarter of 2022 and AMC around the third quarter. I’d certainly take both bets before I bought either stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2572,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/161327369"}
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