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2021-06-17

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What lumber and gold prices tell us about the stock market's next move<blockquote>木材和黄金价格告诉我们股市的下一步走势</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":163558264,"tweetId":"163558264","gmtCreate":1623889763058,"gmtModify":1631889361463,"author":{"id":3569454568159824,"idStr":"3569454568159824","authorId":3569454568159824,"authorIdStr":"3569454568159824","name":"yk95","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Wow</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Wow</body></html>","text":"Wow","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163558264","repostId":2144713396,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144713396","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623889510,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144713396?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 08:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What lumber and gold prices tell us about the stock market's next move<blockquote>木材和黄金价格告诉我们股市的下一步走势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144713396","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Commodities have an effect on stocks but the one to watch is platinum. See full story .\nGETTY IMAGES","content":"Commodities have an effect on stocks but the one to watch is platinum. See full story .<blockquote>大宗商品对股票有影响，但值得关注的是铂金。查看完整故事。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae56c9abdfe2e326972f59f852b6c04\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\">GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>盖蒂图片</blockquote> Lumber prices have experienced one of their biggest and quickest plunges in history— with the spot futures contract dropping more than $670, or 40%, in just 25 trading sessions.<blockquote>木材价格经历了历史上最大、最快的暴跌之一——现货期货合约在短短25个交易日内下跌了670多美元，即40%。</blockquote> It’s human nature to try to find meaning in this, since the alternative is to accept that price changes this momentous are nothing more than merely random fluctuations. None of us like to accept that our investment portfolios could be subject to such cruel twists of fate.<blockquote>试图从中找到意义是人类的天性，因为另一种选择是接受如此重大的价格变化只不过是随机波动。我们都不愿意接受我们的投资组合可能会遭受如此残酷的命运扭曲。</blockquote> One way in which some are finding meaning in lumber’s decline is via a market-timing indicator based on the ratio of lumber&nbsp;to gold.One&nbsp;study&nbsp;found that when the ratio is higher than where it was 13 weeks previously, conditions should be favorable for U.S. stocks. When it’s lower, U.S. Treasury bonds are preferred.<blockquote>一些人发现木材下跌意义的一种方式是通过基于木材与黄金比率的市场时机指标。一项研究发现，当这一比率高于13周前的水平时，情况应该对美国股市有利。较低时，首选美国国债。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, given lumber’s recent plunge, this ratio’s current message is bearish for stocks. (See chart below.) To help determine how much weight to place on that message, I tested the ratio back to 1984 — which is how far back data extend on FactSet. For each week since then, I calculated whether the ratio was higher or lower than where it was 13 weeks previously.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，鉴于木材最近的暴跌，该比率目前传达的信息对股市不利。（见下图。）为了帮助确定该消息的权重，我测试了1984年的比率——这是数据在FactSet上延伸的时间。从那以后的每一周，我都会计算这个比率是高于还是低于13周前的水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3b4a71a21eea91205bffc083189f6a1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"><blockquote></blockquote> The table below reports the frequency of a rising market as a function of whether the lumber-gold ratio’s 13-week change was positive or negative. I used the Wilshire 5000’s Total Return Index as the market benchmark.<blockquote>下表报告了市场上涨的频率，作为木材-黄金比率13周变化是正还是负的函数。我使用Wilshire 5000的总回报指数作为市场基准。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87c08d2f35d4035d6679a53b43dad2d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"377\"><blockquote></blockquote> Notice that the lumber-gold ratio makes little to no difference to the frequency of a higher stock market. This suggests that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio may not be as alarming as it otherwise might appear.<blockquote>请注意，木材与黄金的比率对股市上涨的频率几乎没有影响。这表明，最近木材与黄金比率的低迷可能并不像看起来那么令人担忧。</blockquote> Of course, it’s possible that even though a decline isn’t more likely when the ratio’s 13-week change is negative, the declines that do take place are more severe. The table below reports the relevant data, which tell a similar story as the table above.<blockquote>当然，尽管当该比率的13周变化为负时，下降的可能性不大，但确实发生的下降可能会更加严重。下表报告了相关数据，讲述了与上表相似的故事。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a25f2a5327104a15712a37d05c39479\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"265\"><blockquote></blockquote> To be sure, this discussion is not an exhaustive analysis of the lumber-gold ratio’s potential value. There may be other ways of slicing and dicing the data that uncover ways in which it can be of use to investors. Nevertheless, the data would seem to suggest that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio is not in and of itself a huge cause for alarm.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，这次讨论并不是对木材-黄金比率潜在价值的详尽分析。可能还有其他方法来分割数据，以揭示数据对投资者有用的方式。然而，数据似乎表明，最近木材与黄金比率的低迷本身并不是一个令人震惊的巨大原因。</blockquote> None of these results guarantees that the stock market won’t experience a correction in coming weeks, or even begin a bear market. It very much could, at any time, given&nbsp;how overvalued the stock market is. My point is that, as far as I can see, the declining lumber-gold ratio is not an additional reason for predicting such a downturn.<blockquote>这些结果都不能保证股市在未来几周内不会出现调整，甚至不会开始熊市。鉴于股市被高估的程度，任何时候都有可能发生这种情况。我的观点是，在我看来，木材与黄金比率的下降并不是预测这种低迷的额外原因。</blockquote> Gold-platinum ratio<blockquote>金铂比</blockquote> In the meantime, you may want to give the stock market the benefit of the doubt. That’s because of another commodity-market-based ratio that&nbsp;a peer-reviewed academic study&nbsp;has found to have an excellent record forecasting the stock market’s 12-month return. This other ratio is the price of gold divided by the price of platinum.<blockquote>与此同时，你可能想假定股市是无辜的。这是因为另一项基于大宗商品市场的比率，一项同行评审的学术研究发现，该比率在预测股市12个月回报方面有着出色的记录。另一个比率是黄金价格除以铂金价格。</blockquote> I most&nbsp;recently wrote about this ratio in February. Though the ratio is a lot lower today than the multiyear high it set at the bottom of last March’s waterfall decline, it still is above its long-term average. Accordingly, though the stock market’s upside potential over the next 12 months is nowhere as strong as it was as year ago, it still is above average.<blockquote>我最近一次写这个比率是在二月份。尽管今天的这一比率远低于去年3月瀑布式下跌底部创下的多年高点，但仍高于长期平均水平。因此，尽管股市未来12个月的上涨潜力远不如一年前，但仍高于平均水平。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What lumber and gold prices tell us about the stock market's next move<blockquote>木材和黄金价格告诉我们股市的下一步走势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat lumber and gold prices tell us about the stock market's next move<blockquote>木材和黄金价格告诉我们股市的下一步走势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-17 08:25\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nCommodities have an effect on stocks but the one to watch is platinum. See full story .<blockquote>大宗商品对股票有影响，但值得关注的是铂金。查看完整故事。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae56c9abdfe2e326972f59f852b6c04\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\">GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>盖蒂图片</blockquote> Lumber prices have experienced one of their biggest and quickest plunges in history— with the spot futures contract dropping more than $670, or 40%, in just 25 trading sessions.<blockquote>木材价格经历了历史上最大、最快的暴跌之一——现货期货合约在短短25个交易日内下跌了670多美元，即40%。</blockquote> It’s human nature to try to find meaning in this, since the alternative is to accept that price changes this momentous are nothing more than merely random fluctuations. None of us like to accept that our investment portfolios could be subject to such cruel twists of fate.<blockquote>试图从中找到意义是人类的天性，因为另一种选择是接受如此重大的价格变化只不过是随机波动。我们都不愿意接受我们的投资组合可能会遭受如此残酷的命运扭曲。</blockquote> One way in which some are finding meaning in lumber’s decline is via a market-timing indicator based on the ratio of lumber&nbsp;to gold.One&nbsp;study&nbsp;found that when the ratio is higher than where it was 13 weeks previously, conditions should be favorable for U.S. stocks. When it’s lower, U.S. Treasury bonds are preferred.<blockquote>一些人发现木材下跌意义的一种方式是通过基于木材与黄金比率的市场时机指标。一项研究发现，当这一比率高于13周前的水平时，情况应该对美国股市有利。较低时，首选美国国债。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, given lumber’s recent plunge, this ratio’s current message is bearish for stocks. (See chart below.) To help determine how much weight to place on that message, I tested the ratio back to 1984 — which is how far back data extend on FactSet. For each week since then, I calculated whether the ratio was higher or lower than where it was 13 weeks previously.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，鉴于木材最近的暴跌，该比率目前传达的信息对股市不利。（见下图。）为了帮助确定该消息的权重，我测试了1984年的比率——这是数据在FactSet上延伸的时间。从那以后的每一周，我都会计算这个比率是高于还是低于13周前的水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3b4a71a21eea91205bffc083189f6a1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"><blockquote></blockquote> The table below reports the frequency of a rising market as a function of whether the lumber-gold ratio’s 13-week change was positive or negative. I used the Wilshire 5000’s Total Return Index as the market benchmark.<blockquote>下表报告了市场上涨的频率，作为木材-黄金比率13周变化是正还是负的函数。我使用Wilshire 5000的总回报指数作为市场基准。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87c08d2f35d4035d6679a53b43dad2d\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"377\"><blockquote></blockquote> Notice that the lumber-gold ratio makes little to no difference to the frequency of a higher stock market. This suggests that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio may not be as alarming as it otherwise might appear.<blockquote>请注意，木材与黄金的比率对股市上涨的频率几乎没有影响。这表明，最近木材与黄金比率的低迷可能并不像看起来那么令人担忧。</blockquote> Of course, it’s possible that even though a decline isn’t more likely when the ratio’s 13-week change is negative, the declines that do take place are more severe. The table below reports the relevant data, which tell a similar story as the table above.<blockquote>当然，尽管当该比率的13周变化为负时，下降的可能性不大，但确实发生的下降可能会更加严重。下表报告了相关数据，讲述了与上表相似的故事。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a25f2a5327104a15712a37d05c39479\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"265\"><blockquote></blockquote> To be sure, this discussion is not an exhaustive analysis of the lumber-gold ratio’s potential value. There may be other ways of slicing and dicing the data that uncover ways in which it can be of use to investors. Nevertheless, the data would seem to suggest that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio is not in and of itself a huge cause for alarm.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，这次讨论并不是对木材-黄金比率潜在价值的详尽分析。可能还有其他方法来分割数据，以揭示数据对投资者有用的方式。然而，数据似乎表明，最近木材与黄金比率的低迷本身并不是一个令人震惊的巨大原因。</blockquote> None of these results guarantees that the stock market won’t experience a correction in coming weeks, or even begin a bear market. It very much could, at any time, given&nbsp;how overvalued the stock market is. My point is that, as far as I can see, the declining lumber-gold ratio is not an additional reason for predicting such a downturn.<blockquote>这些结果都不能保证股市在未来几周内不会出现调整，甚至不会开始熊市。鉴于股市被高估的程度，任何时候都有可能发生这种情况。我的观点是，在我看来，木材与黄金比率的下降并不是预测这种低迷的额外原因。</blockquote> Gold-platinum ratio<blockquote>金铂比</blockquote> In the meantime, you may want to give the stock market the benefit of the doubt. That’s because of another commodity-market-based ratio that&nbsp;a peer-reviewed academic study&nbsp;has found to have an excellent record forecasting the stock market’s 12-month return. This other ratio is the price of gold divided by the price of platinum.<blockquote>与此同时，你可能想假定股市是无辜的。这是因为另一项基于大宗商品市场的比率，一项同行评审的学术研究发现，该比率在预测股市12个月回报方面有着出色的记录。另一个比率是黄金价格除以铂金价格。</blockquote> I most&nbsp;recently wrote about this ratio in February. Though the ratio is a lot lower today than the multiyear high it set at the bottom of last March’s waterfall decline, it still is above its long-term average. Accordingly, though the stock market’s upside potential over the next 12 months is nowhere as strong as it was as year ago, it still is above average.<blockquote>我最近一次写这个比率是在二月份。尽管今天的这一比率远低于去年3月瀑布式下跌底部创下的多年高点，但仍高于长期平均水平。因此，尽管股市未来12个月的上涨潜力远不如一年前，但仍高于平均水平。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-lumber-and-gold-prices-tell-us-about-the-stock-markets-next-move-11623811154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-lumber-and-gold-prices-tell-us-about-the-stock-markets-next-move-11623811154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144713396","content_text":"Commodities have an effect on stocks but the one to watch is platinum. See full story .\nGETTY IMAGES\nLumber prices have experienced one of their biggest and quickest plunges in history— with the spot futures contract dropping more than $670, or 40%, in just 25 trading sessions.\nIt’s human nature to try to find meaning in this, since the alternative is to accept that price changes this momentous are nothing more than merely random fluctuations. None of us like to accept that our investment portfolios could be subject to such cruel twists of fate.\nOne way in which some are finding meaning in lumber’s decline is via a market-timing indicator based on the ratio of lumber to gold.One study found that when the ratio is higher than where it was 13 weeks previously, conditions should be favorable for U.S. stocks. When it’s lower, U.S. Treasury bonds are preferred.\nNot surprisingly, given lumber’s recent plunge, this ratio’s current message is bearish for stocks. (See chart below.) To help determine how much weight to place on that message, I tested the ratio back to 1984 — which is how far back data extend on FactSet. For each week since then, I calculated whether the ratio was higher or lower than where it was 13 weeks previously.\n\nThe table below reports the frequency of a rising market as a function of whether the lumber-gold ratio’s 13-week change was positive or negative. I used the Wilshire 5000’s Total Return Index as the market benchmark.\n\nNotice that the lumber-gold ratio makes little to no difference to the frequency of a higher stock market. This suggests that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio may not be as alarming as it otherwise might appear.\nOf course, it’s possible that even though a decline isn’t more likely when the ratio’s 13-week change is negative, the declines that do take place are more severe. The table below reports the relevant data, which tell a similar story as the table above.\n\nTo be sure, this discussion is not an exhaustive analysis of the lumber-gold ratio’s potential value. There may be other ways of slicing and dicing the data that uncover ways in which it can be of use to investors. Nevertheless, the data would seem to suggest that the recent downturn in the lumber-gold ratio is not in and of itself a huge cause for alarm.\nNone of these results guarantees that the stock market won’t experience a correction in coming weeks, or even begin a bear market. It very much could, at any time, given how overvalued the stock market is. My point is that, as far as I can see, the declining lumber-gold ratio is not an additional reason for predicting such a downturn.\nGold-platinum ratio\nIn the meantime, you may want to give the stock market the benefit of the doubt. That’s because of another commodity-market-based ratio that a peer-reviewed academic study has found to have an excellent record forecasting the stock market’s 12-month return. This other ratio is the price of gold divided by the price of platinum.\nI most recently wrote about this ratio in February. Though the ratio is a lot lower today than the multiyear high it set at the bottom of last March’s waterfall decline, it still is above its long-term average. Accordingly, though the stock market’s upside potential over the next 12 months is nowhere as strong as it was as year ago, it still is above average.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/163558264"}