LIMCHENGZU
2021-06-18
Goldman usually make the wrong guess
[捂脸]
Goldman sees Fed-driven dip in commodities as a 'buying opportunity'<blockquote>高盛将美联储推动的大宗商品下跌视为“买入机会”</blockquote>
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It is about scarcity and strong physical demand,” the Wall Street bank said in a note.</p><p><blockquote>这家华尔街银行在一份报告中表示：“看涨大宗商品的论点既不是关于通胀风险，也不是关于美联储的前瞻性指引。而是关于稀缺性和强劲的实物需求。”</blockquote></p><p> Physical scarcity, caused by robust demand growth and inelastic supply, could drive Brent crude oil prices to average $80 in the third quarter, with potential spikes above that level, Goldman analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师写道，强劲的需求增长和缺乏弹性的供应造成的实物稀缺可能会推动布伦特原油价格在第三季度平均达到80美元，并有可能飙升至该水平以上。</blockquote></p><p> Prices of commodities including oil, gold and copper fell as the U.S. dollar surged on the Federal Reserve’s outlook on interest rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>包括石油、黄金和铜在内的大宗商品价格下跌，因美联储加息前景导致美元飙升。</blockquote></p><p> But oil prices were still close to multi-year highs, while gold has since seen a slight rebound, and copper was en route to its biggest weekly decline since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>但油价仍接近多年高点，而金价此后小幅反弹，铜价有望创下2020年3月以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The copper market also remains on course for deficit conditions both over the remainder of this year and into 2022, the bank said, adding recent dips should be viewed as a longer-term buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>该行表示，铜市场在今年剩余时间和2022年仍将处于赤字状态，并补充说近期的下跌应被视为长期买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> A recovery in commodities markets excluding energy markets, however, is likely to be slower than from recent sell-offs as transient shocks from weather and Chinese-mandated repositioning have generated negative technical breakthroughs, Goldman warned.</p><p><blockquote>然而，高盛警告称，由于天气和中国强制重新定位的短暂冲击产生了负面的技术突破，不包括能源市场在内的大宗商品市场的复苏可能会慢于最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this month, China’s state planner renewed a pledge to step up monitoring of commodity prices and strengthen supervision of spot and futures markets, as producer inflation in the country hit over 12 year-highs.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，中国国家规划者再次承诺加强对大宗商品价格的监控，并加强对现货和期货市场的监管，因为中国的生产者通胀创下了12年来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman also viewed gold as under-valued relative to both real and nominal fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛还认为，相对于实际和名义基本面，黄金被低估。</blockquote></p><p> “In fact, gold is now pricing a Goldilocks scenario of strong growth without any inflation, implying limited demand for it as either a defensive asset or inflation hedge.”</p><p><blockquote>“事实上，黄金现在定价的是在没有任何通胀的情况下强劲增长的金发姑娘情景，这意味着对其作为防御性资产或通胀对冲的需求有限。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman sees Fed-driven dip in commodities as a 'buying opportunity'<blockquote>高盛将美联储推动的大宗商品下跌视为“买入机会”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 20:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said on Friday the recent slip in commodities prices driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to bring forward projections for interest rate hikes into 2023 was a buying opportunity for investors.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-高盛周五表示，美联储决定将加息预测提前至2023年，导致大宗商品价格近期下滑，这对投资者来说是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> “The bullish commodity thesis is neither about inflation risks nor Fed forward guidance. It is about scarcity and strong physical demand,” the Wall Street bank said in a note.</p><p><blockquote>这家华尔街银行在一份报告中表示：“看涨大宗商品的论点既不是关于通胀风险，也不是关于美联储的前瞻性指引。而是关于稀缺性和强劲的实物需求。”</blockquote></p><p> Physical scarcity, caused by robust demand growth and inelastic supply, could drive Brent crude oil prices to average $80 in the third quarter, with potential spikes above that level, Goldman analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师写道，强劲的需求增长和缺乏弹性的供应造成的实物稀缺可能会推动布伦特原油价格在第三季度平均达到80美元，并有可能飙升至该水平以上。</blockquote></p><p> Prices of commodities including oil, gold and copper fell as the U.S. dollar surged on the Federal Reserve’s outlook on interest rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>包括石油、黄金和铜在内的大宗商品价格下跌，因美联储加息前景导致美元飙升。</blockquote></p><p> But oil prices were still close to multi-year highs, while gold has since seen a slight rebound, and copper was en route to its biggest weekly decline since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>但油价仍接近多年高点，而金价此后小幅反弹，铜价有望创下2020年3月以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The copper market also remains on course for deficit conditions both over the remainder of this year and into 2022, the bank said, adding recent dips should be viewed as a longer-term buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>该行表示，铜市场在今年剩余时间和2022年仍将处于赤字状态，并补充说近期的下跌应被视为长期买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> A recovery in commodities markets excluding energy markets, however, is likely to be slower than from recent sell-offs as transient shocks from weather and Chinese-mandated repositioning have generated negative technical breakthroughs, Goldman warned.</p><p><blockquote>然而，高盛警告称，由于天气和中国强制重新定位的短暂冲击产生了负面的技术突破，不包括能源市场在内的大宗商品市场的复苏可能会慢于最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Earlier this month, China’s state planner renewed a pledge to step up monitoring of commodity prices and strengthen supervision of spot and futures markets, as producer inflation in the country hit over 12 year-highs.</p><p><blockquote>本月早些时候，中国国家规划者再次承诺加强对大宗商品价格的监控，并加强对现货和期货市场的监管，因为中国的生产者通胀创下了12年来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman also viewed gold as under-valued relative to both real and nominal fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛还认为，相对于实际和名义基本面，黄金被低估。</blockquote></p><p> “In fact, gold is now pricing a Goldilocks scenario of strong growth without any inflation, implying limited demand for it as either a defensive asset or inflation hedge.”</p><p><blockquote>“事实上，黄金现在定价的是在没有任何通胀的情况下强劲增长的金发姑娘情景，这意味着对其作为防御性资产或通胀对冲的需求有限。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/commodities-research-goldman/goldman-sees-fed-driven-dip-in-commodities-as-a-buying-opportunity-idUSL3N2O02QT\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/commodities-research-goldman/goldman-sees-fed-driven-dip-in-commodities-as-a-buying-opportunity-idUSL3N2O02QT","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131081247","content_text":"(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said on Friday the recent slip in commodities prices driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to bring forward projections for interest rate hikes into 2023 was a buying opportunity for investors.\n“The bullish commodity thesis is neither about inflation risks nor Fed forward guidance. It is about scarcity and strong physical demand,” the Wall Street bank said in a note.\nPhysical scarcity, caused by robust demand growth and inelastic supply, could drive Brent crude oil prices to average $80 in the third quarter, with potential spikes above that level, Goldman analysts wrote.\nPrices of commodities including oil, gold and copper fell as the U.S. dollar surged on the Federal Reserve’s outlook on interest rate hikes.\nBut oil prices were still close to multi-year highs, while gold has since seen a slight rebound, and copper was en route to its biggest weekly decline since March 2020.\nThe copper market also remains on course for deficit conditions both over the remainder of this year and into 2022, the bank said, adding recent dips should be viewed as a longer-term buying opportunity.\nA recovery in commodities markets excluding energy markets, however, is likely to be slower than from recent sell-offs as transient shocks from weather and Chinese-mandated repositioning have generated negative technical breakthroughs, Goldman warned.\nEarlier this month, China’s state planner renewed a pledge to step up monitoring of commodity prices and strengthen supervision of spot and futures markets, as producer inflation in the country hit over 12 year-highs.\nGoldman also viewed gold as under-valued relative to both real and nominal fundamentals.\n“In fact, gold is now pricing a Goldilocks scenario of strong growth without any inflation, implying limited demand for it as either a defensive asset or inflation hedge.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1623,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["GS"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":37,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/166551594"}
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