ZeroExcel
2021-06-21
Wow, looks like big news
Top Ag Traders Forecast "Mini Supercycle"<blockquote>顶级农业交易员预测“迷你超级周期”</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
1
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":167287892,"tweetId":"167287892","gmtCreate":1624271133516,"gmtModify":1634008625413,"author":{"id":3555203564605155,"idStr":"3555203564605155","authorId":3555203564605155,"authorIdStr":"3555203564605155","name":"ZeroExcel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8be8e53d95dbaa3edaf7f261fb1246","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p> Wow, looks like big news</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p> Wow, looks like big news</p></body></html>","text":"Wow, looks like big news","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167287892","repostId":1181147458,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181147458","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624269824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181147458?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 18:03","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Top Ag Traders Forecast \"Mini Supercycle\"<blockquote>顶级农业交易员预测“迷你超级周期”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181147458","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Before the plunge in commodities late in the week, top executives from Cargill, Cofco, Viterra, and ","content":"<p>Before the plunge in commodities late in the week, top executives from Cargill, Cofco, Viterra, and Scoular said this week at the FT Commodities Global Summit that<b>a \"mini-supercycle\" in agricultural commodities could be on the horizon, boosted by China demand and increasing use for biofuels.</b></p><p><blockquote>在本周晚些时候大宗商品暴跌之前，嘉吉、中粮集团、Viterra和Scoular的高管本周在FT大宗商品全球峰会上表示，<b>在中国需求和生物燃料使用增加的推动下，农产品的“迷你超级周期”可能即将到来。</b></blockquote></p><p> These execs forecasted corn, soybeans, and wheat markets will remain robust over the next two to four years.</p><p><blockquote>这些高管预测，玉米、大豆和小麦市场将在未来两到四年内保持强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <i>\"We certainly see a mini supercycle,\" said David Mattiske, chief executive of Viterra, majority-owned by Glencore, told the FT Commodities Global Summit.\"We're in a demand-driven environment with the themes of a growing population, growing wealth, people consuming more. And added into that we've got increased demand for plant-based fuel,\" Mattiske said.</i> Taking a look at the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index, a sub-index of the S&P GSCI which provides a broad basket of wheat, corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar, cocoa, and cotton, has been on an absolute tear since the virus pandemic began, up currently 56.6% but down 15% from an eight-year high.</p><p><blockquote><i>嘉能可控股的Viterra首席执行官戴维·马蒂斯克(David Mattiske)在英国《金融时报》大宗商品全球峰会上表示：“我们确实看到了一个迷你超级周期。我们正处于一个需求驱动的环境中，其主题是人口增长、财富增长、人们消费更多。除此之外，我们对植物燃料的需求也在增加，”马蒂斯克说。</i>看看S&P GSCI农业指数，这是S&P GSCI的一个子指数，提供了一篮子广泛的小麦、玉米、大豆、咖啡、糖、可可和棉花，自病毒大流行开始以来，该指数一直在大幅上涨，目前上涨56.6%，但较八年高点下跌15%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6c8adc05faef6f0eb37acdd37b9e6d2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\">Higher commodity prices are great news for farmers who can boost incomes and reinvest into operations. Many farmers have seen their net incomes deteriorate over the last decade. But rising agriculture prices mean higher food inflation will hit low-income countries the hardest first, then ripple across the world.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品价格上涨对农民来说是个好消息，他们可以增加收入并进行再投资。在过去的十年里，许多农民的净收入下降了。但农产品价格上涨意味着食品通胀上升将首先对低收入国家造成最严重的打击，然后波及全球。</blockquote></p><p> Back in December, SocGen's resident market skeptic Albert Edwards shared with the world why he is starting to panic about soaring food prices. And since that was before food prices really erupted amid broken supply chains, trillions in fiscal stimulus, and exploding commodity costs, we can only imagine the sheer terror he must feel today. He has noted social instabilities have begun around soaring food inflation.</p><p><blockquote>早在去年12月，法国兴业银行常驻市场怀疑论者艾伯特·爱德华兹(Albert Edwards)就向世界分享了他为何开始对食品价格飙升感到恐慌。由于那是在食品价格因供应链断裂、数万亿美元的财政刺激和大宗商品成本爆炸而真正爆发之前，我们只能想象他今天一定会感到多么恐惧。他指出，围绕食品通胀飙升，社会不稳定已经开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5582ae832d11f87e90cb9e4eb5ccbc8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"276\">According to the latest United Nations index of world food costs, itclimbedfor a 12th straight month in May, its longest stretch in a decade, rising to the highest in nearly a decade, heightening concerns over bulging grocery bills.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新的联合国世界食品成本指数，5月份食品成本连续第12个月攀升，为十年来最长，升至近十年来的最高水平，加剧了人们对食品杂货账单膨胀的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4333c994853efc1b54db09a1cb92453\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"899\">Alex Sanfeliu, head of Cargill's world trading unit, said the bumper harvests for corn and soybeans in the US and Brazil means that supercycles in grains and oilseeds will be shorter in the past. Though he predicted an upward swing in ag prices could be sustained for two to four years. \"The characteristics of the supercycle are there,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>嘉吉世界贸易部门负责人Alex Sanfeliu表示，美国和巴西玉米和大豆的丰收意味着谷物和油籽的超级周期将比过去更短。尽管他预测农产品价格的上涨可能会持续两到四年。“超级周期的特征就在那里，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, China imported a record amount of soybeans and grains from the US as it rebuilt its swine population. The US was among the largest beneficiary of the buying. China is expected to continue purchasing US farm goods this year as it needs to \"restock\" after the pandemic shock.</p><p><blockquote>去年，随着中国重建生猪数量，中国从美国进口了创纪录数量的大豆和谷物。美国是此次收购的最大受益者之一。预计中国今年将继续购买美国农产品，因为它需要在疫情冲击后“补充库存”。</blockquote></p><p> Marcelo Martins, head of grains and oilseeds at Cofco International, the trading arm of the Chinese state conglomerate, said supply imbalances around the world would persist due to some areas that sustained poor harvest. But, he warned,<i>\"[The supply deficit] is here to stay.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>中国国有企业集团中粮国际(Cofco International)的贸易部门谷物和油籽主管马塞洛·马丁斯(Marcelo Martins)表示，由于一些地区持续歉收，全球供应失衡将持续存在。但是，他警告说，<i>“[供应赤字]将持续存在。”</i></blockquote></p><p> As we've previously noted, parts of South America and the Western half of the US are in a drought, affecting future harvest yields. Especially in the US, amegadroughtis crushing farmers as <i>reservoirs dry up, with many unable to water their crops.</i></p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，南美洲部分地区和美国西半部正处于干旱之中，影响了未来的收成。尤其是在美国，干旱正在压垮农民<i>水库干涸，许多人无法灌溉庄稼。</i></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the Biden administration set the 2030 greenhouse gas pollution target aimed at increasing biofuels - this means the agricultural product is being diverted for fuel rather than food, driving up prices.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，拜登政府设定了2030年温室气体污染目标，旨在增加生物燃料——这意味着农产品正被转向燃料而不是食品，推高了价格。</blockquote></p><p> Paul Maas, chief executive of US agricultural trader Scoular, said biofuels drive \"unprecedented\" demand for soyabean and soya oil prices. As countries reduce their carbon footprint, many turn to the food supply for answers to reduce fossil fuel usage by mixing biofuels into petrol blends.</p><p><blockquote>美国农产品交易商Scoular首席执行官Paul Maas表示，生物燃料推动了对大豆和豆油价格的“前所未有”需求。随着各国减少碳足迹，许多国家转向食品供应，通过将生物燃料混合到汽油混合物中来寻找减少化石燃料使用的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <i>\"The increased demand is real and we're on the front end of seeing how that all plays out,\" said Maas.</i> While there are several factors top execs point to for higher future ag prices, prices have fallen in the last couple of months and may continue to correct.</p><p><blockquote><i>马斯说：“需求的增加是真实的，我们正处于观察这一切如何发展的前端。”</i>尽管高管们指出了未来农业价格上涨的几个因素，但价格在过去几个月已经下跌，并可能继续调整。</blockquote></p><p> Gary McGuigan, head of global trade at Archer Daniels Midland, added some caution to the mini supercycle, indicating significant uncertainties around China's 2021 demand.</p><p><blockquote>阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰(Archer Daniels Midland)全球贸易主管加里·麦奎根(Gary McGuigan)对迷你超级周期表示谨慎，表明中国2021年需求存在重大不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps this is more evidence that the Fed's illusionary narrative of \"transitory\" inflation is tearing apart at the seams as food prices are likely to remain elevated for some time due to the various demand dynamics mentioned above.</p><p><blockquote>也许这更多地证明了美联储关于“暂时性”通胀的虚幻叙述正在被撕裂，因为由于上述各种需求动态，食品价格可能会在一段时间内保持高位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Ag Traders Forecast \"Mini Supercycle\"<blockquote>顶级农业交易员预测“迷你超级周期”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Ag Traders Forecast \"Mini Supercycle\"<blockquote>顶级农业交易员预测“迷你超级周期”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 18:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Before the plunge in commodities late in the week, top executives from Cargill, Cofco, Viterra, and Scoular said this week at the FT Commodities Global Summit that<b>a \"mini-supercycle\" in agricultural commodities could be on the horizon, boosted by China demand and increasing use for biofuels.</b></p><p><blockquote>在本周晚些时候大宗商品暴跌之前，嘉吉、中粮集团、Viterra和Scoular的高管本周在FT大宗商品全球峰会上表示，<b>在中国需求和生物燃料使用增加的推动下，农产品的“迷你超级周期”可能即将到来。</b></blockquote></p><p> These execs forecasted corn, soybeans, and wheat markets will remain robust over the next two to four years.</p><p><blockquote>这些高管预测，玉米、大豆和小麦市场将在未来两到四年内保持强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <i>\"We certainly see a mini supercycle,\" said David Mattiske, chief executive of Viterra, majority-owned by Glencore, told the FT Commodities Global Summit.\"We're in a demand-driven environment with the themes of a growing population, growing wealth, people consuming more. And added into that we've got increased demand for plant-based fuel,\" Mattiske said.</i> Taking a look at the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index, a sub-index of the S&P GSCI which provides a broad basket of wheat, corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar, cocoa, and cotton, has been on an absolute tear since the virus pandemic began, up currently 56.6% but down 15% from an eight-year high.</p><p><blockquote><i>嘉能可控股的Viterra首席执行官戴维·马蒂斯克(David Mattiske)在英国《金融时报》大宗商品全球峰会上表示：“我们确实看到了一个迷你超级周期。我们正处于一个需求驱动的环境中，其主题是人口增长、财富增长、人们消费更多。除此之外，我们对植物燃料的需求也在增加，”马蒂斯克说。</i>看看S&P GSCI农业指数，这是S&P GSCI的一个子指数，提供了一篮子广泛的小麦、玉米、大豆、咖啡、糖、可可和棉花，自病毒大流行开始以来，该指数一直在大幅上涨，目前上涨56.6%，但较八年高点下跌15%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6c8adc05faef6f0eb37acdd37b9e6d2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\">Higher commodity prices are great news for farmers who can boost incomes and reinvest into operations. Many farmers have seen their net incomes deteriorate over the last decade. But rising agriculture prices mean higher food inflation will hit low-income countries the hardest first, then ripple across the world.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品价格上涨对农民来说是个好消息，他们可以增加收入并进行再投资。在过去的十年里，许多农民的净收入下降了。但农产品价格上涨意味着食品通胀上升将首先对低收入国家造成最严重的打击，然后波及全球。</blockquote></p><p> Back in December, SocGen's resident market skeptic Albert Edwards shared with the world why he is starting to panic about soaring food prices. And since that was before food prices really erupted amid broken supply chains, trillions in fiscal stimulus, and exploding commodity costs, we can only imagine the sheer terror he must feel today. He has noted social instabilities have begun around soaring food inflation.</p><p><blockquote>早在去年12月，法国兴业银行常驻市场怀疑论者艾伯特·爱德华兹(Albert Edwards)就向世界分享了他为何开始对食品价格飙升感到恐慌。由于那是在食品价格因供应链断裂、数万亿美元的财政刺激和大宗商品成本爆炸而真正爆发之前，我们只能想象他今天一定会感到多么恐惧。他指出，围绕食品通胀飙升，社会不稳定已经开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5582ae832d11f87e90cb9e4eb5ccbc8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"276\">According to the latest United Nations index of world food costs, itclimbedfor a 12th straight month in May, its longest stretch in a decade, rising to the highest in nearly a decade, heightening concerns over bulging grocery bills.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新的联合国世界食品成本指数，5月份食品成本连续第12个月攀升，为十年来最长，升至近十年来的最高水平，加剧了人们对食品杂货账单膨胀的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4333c994853efc1b54db09a1cb92453\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"899\">Alex Sanfeliu, head of Cargill's world trading unit, said the bumper harvests for corn and soybeans in the US and Brazil means that supercycles in grains and oilseeds will be shorter in the past. Though he predicted an upward swing in ag prices could be sustained for two to four years. \"The characteristics of the supercycle are there,\" he added.</p><p><blockquote>嘉吉世界贸易部门负责人Alex Sanfeliu表示，美国和巴西玉米和大豆的丰收意味着谷物和油籽的超级周期将比过去更短。尽管他预测农产品价格的上涨可能会持续两到四年。“超级周期的特征就在那里，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, China imported a record amount of soybeans and grains from the US as it rebuilt its swine population. The US was among the largest beneficiary of the buying. China is expected to continue purchasing US farm goods this year as it needs to \"restock\" after the pandemic shock.</p><p><blockquote>去年，随着中国重建生猪数量，中国从美国进口了创纪录数量的大豆和谷物。美国是此次收购的最大受益者之一。预计中国今年将继续购买美国农产品，因为它需要在疫情冲击后“补充库存”。</blockquote></p><p> Marcelo Martins, head of grains and oilseeds at Cofco International, the trading arm of the Chinese state conglomerate, said supply imbalances around the world would persist due to some areas that sustained poor harvest. But, he warned,<i>\"[The supply deficit] is here to stay.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>中国国有企业集团中粮国际(Cofco International)的贸易部门谷物和油籽主管马塞洛·马丁斯(Marcelo Martins)表示，由于一些地区持续歉收，全球供应失衡将持续存在。但是，他警告说，<i>“[供应赤字]将持续存在。”</i></blockquote></p><p> As we've previously noted, parts of South America and the Western half of the US are in a drought, affecting future harvest yields. Especially in the US, amegadroughtis crushing farmers as <i>reservoirs dry up, with many unable to water their crops.</i></p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前指出的，南美洲部分地区和美国西半部正处于干旱之中，影响了未来的收成。尤其是在美国，干旱正在压垮农民<i>水库干涸，许多人无法灌溉庄稼。</i></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the Biden administration set the 2030 greenhouse gas pollution target aimed at increasing biofuels - this means the agricultural product is being diverted for fuel rather than food, driving up prices.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，拜登政府设定了2030年温室气体污染目标，旨在增加生物燃料——这意味着农产品正被转向燃料而不是食品，推高了价格。</blockquote></p><p> Paul Maas, chief executive of US agricultural trader Scoular, said biofuels drive \"unprecedented\" demand for soyabean and soya oil prices. As countries reduce their carbon footprint, many turn to the food supply for answers to reduce fossil fuel usage by mixing biofuels into petrol blends.</p><p><blockquote>美国农产品交易商Scoular首席执行官Paul Maas表示，生物燃料推动了对大豆和豆油价格的“前所未有”需求。随着各国减少碳足迹，许多国家转向食品供应，通过将生物燃料混合到汽油混合物中来寻找减少化石燃料使用的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <i>\"The increased demand is real and we're on the front end of seeing how that all plays out,\" said Maas.</i> While there are several factors top execs point to for higher future ag prices, prices have fallen in the last couple of months and may continue to correct.</p><p><blockquote><i>马斯说：“需求的增加是真实的，我们正处于观察这一切如何发展的前端。”</i>尽管高管们指出了未来农业价格上涨的几个因素，但价格在过去几个月已经下跌，并可能继续调整。</blockquote></p><p> Gary McGuigan, head of global trade at Archer Daniels Midland, added some caution to the mini supercycle, indicating significant uncertainties around China's 2021 demand.</p><p><blockquote>阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰(Archer Daniels Midland)全球贸易主管加里·麦奎根(Gary McGuigan)对迷你超级周期表示谨慎，表明中国2021年需求存在重大不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps this is more evidence that the Fed's illusionary narrative of \"transitory\" inflation is tearing apart at the seams as food prices are likely to remain elevated for some time due to the various demand dynamics mentioned above.</p><p><blockquote>也许这更多地证明了美联储关于“暂时性”通胀的虚幻叙述正在被撕裂，因为由于上述各种需求动态，食品价格可能会在一段时间内保持高位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/top-ag-traders-forecast-mini-supercycle\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/top-ag-traders-forecast-mini-supercycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181147458","content_text":"Before the plunge in commodities late in the week, top executives from Cargill, Cofco, Viterra, and Scoular said this week at the FT Commodities Global Summit thata \"mini-supercycle\" in agricultural commodities could be on the horizon, boosted by China demand and increasing use for biofuels.\nThese execs forecasted corn, soybeans, and wheat markets will remain robust over the next two to four years.\n\n\"We certainly see a mini supercycle,\" said David Mattiske, chief executive of Viterra, majority-owned by Glencore, told the FT Commodities Global Summit.\"We're in a demand-driven environment with the themes of a growing population, growing wealth, people consuming more. And added into that we've got increased demand for plant-based fuel,\" Mattiske said.\n\nTaking a look at the S&P GSCI Agriculture Index, a sub-index of the S&P GSCI which provides a broad basket of wheat, corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar, cocoa, and cotton, has been on an absolute tear since the virus pandemic began, up currently 56.6% but down 15% from an eight-year high.\nHigher commodity prices are great news for farmers who can boost incomes and reinvest into operations. Many farmers have seen their net incomes deteriorate over the last decade. But rising agriculture prices mean higher food inflation will hit low-income countries the hardest first, then ripple across the world.\nBack in December, SocGen's resident market skeptic Albert Edwards shared with the world why he is starting to panic about soaring food prices. And since that was before food prices really erupted amid broken supply chains, trillions in fiscal stimulus, and exploding commodity costs, we can only imagine the sheer terror he must feel today. He has noted social instabilities have begun around soaring food inflation.\nAccording to the latest United Nations index of world food costs, itclimbedfor a 12th straight month in May, its longest stretch in a decade, rising to the highest in nearly a decade, heightening concerns over bulging grocery bills.\nAlex Sanfeliu, head of Cargill's world trading unit, said the bumper harvests for corn and soybeans in the US and Brazil means that supercycles in grains and oilseeds will be shorter in the past. Though he predicted an upward swing in ag prices could be sustained for two to four years. \"The characteristics of the supercycle are there,\" he added.\nLast year, China imported a record amount of soybeans and grains from the US as it rebuilt its swine population. The US was among the largest beneficiary of the buying. China is expected to continue purchasing US farm goods this year as it needs to \"restock\" after the pandemic shock.\nMarcelo Martins, head of grains and oilseeds at Cofco International, the trading arm of the Chinese state conglomerate, said supply imbalances around the world would persist due to some areas that sustained poor harvest. But, he warned,\"[The supply deficit] is here to stay.\"\nAs we've previously noted, parts of South America and the Western half of the US are in a drought, affecting future harvest yields. Especially in the US, amegadroughtis crushing farmers as reservoirs dry up, with many unable to water their crops.\nMeanwhile, the Biden administration set the 2030 greenhouse gas pollution target aimed at increasing biofuels - this means the agricultural product is being diverted for fuel rather than food, driving up prices.\nPaul Maas, chief executive of US agricultural trader Scoular, said biofuels drive \"unprecedented\" demand for soyabean and soya oil prices. As countries reduce their carbon footprint, many turn to the food supply for answers to reduce fossil fuel usage by mixing biofuels into petrol blends.\n\n\"The increased demand is real and we're on the front end of seeing how that all plays out,\" said Maas.\n\nWhile there are several factors top execs point to for higher future ag prices, prices have fallen in the last couple of months and may continue to correct.\nGary McGuigan, head of global trade at Archer Daniels Midland, added some caution to the mini supercycle, indicating significant uncertainties around China's 2021 demand.\nPerhaps this is more evidence that the Fed's illusionary narrative of \"transitory\" inflation is tearing apart at the seams as food prices are likely to remain elevated for some time due to the various demand dynamics mentioned above.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":829,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":20,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/167287892"}
精彩评论