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2021-06-21

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Plug Power: This Stock Fails To Get Us Charged Up<blockquote>普拉格能源：这只股票未能让我们充电</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":167563499,"tweetId":"167563499","gmtCreate":1624278072711,"gmtModify":1634008543300,"author":{"id":4087294409896000,"idStr":"4087294409896000","authorId":4087294409896000,"authorIdStr":"4087294409896000","name":"Ponraj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fb14018c0d8ecb48194b86e4ce278","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167563499","repostId":1196746626,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196746626","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624268221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196746626?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Plug Power: This Stock Fails To Get Us Charged Up<blockquote>普拉格能源：这只股票未能让我们充电</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196746626","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPlug Power, the producer of hydrogen fuel cell solutions, has had a turbulent history, with","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Plug Power, the producer of hydrogen fuel cell solutions, has had a turbulent history, with the stock trading at just a fraction of its 1999 tech boom price.</li> <li>Despite experiencing a renaissance in the 2020 tech and growth surge, the stock appears to be re-rating back to its earlier valuation multiple as investor optimism falters.</li> <li>Management has high hopes for the future, with an impressive slide-deck published in the fall of 2020 laying out how they see the company developing in the near future.</li> <li>While forecasts are impressive to read, investors should consider whether there is enough substance in the numbers to back them up.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd52b10176701b73dd7d557921bfd29e\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"480\">3alexd/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>氢燃料电池解决方案生产商普拉格能源的历史动荡，其股价仅为1999年科技繁荣时期价格的一小部分。</li><li>尽管经历了2020年科技和增长激增的复兴，但随着投资者乐观情绪动摇，该股似乎正在重新评级至之前的估值倍数。</li><li>管理层对未来寄予厚望，2020年秋季发布了一份令人印象深刻的幻灯片，阐述了他们对公司在不久的将来发展的看法。</li><li>虽然预测令人印象深刻，但投资者应该考虑这些数字是否有足够的实质内容来支持它们。</li></ul>3alexd/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Despite a strong end to 2020, fuelled by investor optimism for all things linked to our clean and green future, this stock appears to be re-rating back to its former valuation multiple.While there are many factors investors will point towards to support a bull thesis, in our opinion many forward-looking projections are overly ambitious and may ultimately be out of reach. We question whether the total addressable market is significant enough for Plug to prosper, particularly in the light of strong competition.<blockquote>尽管2020年底表现强劲，但在投资者对与我们清洁和绿色未来相关的所有事物的乐观情绪的推动下，该股似乎正在重新评级至之前的估值倍数。虽然投资者会指出许多因素来支持牛市论点，但我们认为许多前瞻性预测过于雄心勃勃，最终可能遥不可及。我们质疑整个潜在市场是否足以让Plug繁荣，特别是在竞争激烈的情况下。</blockquote> The Background to our thesis<blockquote>我们论文的背景</blockquote> Plug Power (PLUG) was a roaring success in the latter part of 2020, increasing by over 400% to its January 2021 peak, before crashing back down to earth as the stock was hit by an&nbsp;accounting scandal.<blockquote>普拉格能源(PLUG)在2020年下半年取得了巨大成功，股价上涨了400%以上，达到2021年1月的峰值，随后因该股受到会计丑闻的打击而暴跌。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c03000d0db7000dd850fad52fdd9068\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> The accounting issues have been covered in detail in the article linked above, so we won’t pore over them in too much detail here, except to say we are big believers in the old adage - “if in doubt, get out.\" An accounting scandal and a restatement of prior year figures is perhaps not the wisest foundations with which to build an investment decision in our opinion.<blockquote>上面链接的文章已经详细介绍了会计问题，所以我们不会在这里详细讨论它们，只是说我们非常相信这句古老的格言——“如果有疑问，就滚出去。”在我们看来，会计丑闻和对上一年数据的重述可能不是做出投资决策的最明智的基础。</blockquote> Whether an accounting scandal is considered a red flag from an investment thesis or not, most investors would baulk at the thought of investing in a firm with legal concerns and unknown liabilities. Unfortunately, for PLUG stockholders, that is exactly what is laid out in the company’s most recent&nbsp;annual report, with a flurry of legal proceedings being filed in early 2021 off the back of the accounting scandal, adding to earlier proceedings from staff involved in an accident which is yet to be resolved. For many investors, these flags would be enough to deter them from an investment. However, a contrary argument may be that these factors are already priced in and the company's future may be rosier. Let's consider what the future holds for Plug Power.<blockquote>无论会计丑闻是否被视为投资论文中的危险信号，大多数投资者都会拒绝投资一家存在法律问题和未知负债的公司。不幸的是，对于PLUG股东来说，这正是该公司最新年度报告中所阐述的内容，由于会计丑闻，2021年初提起了一系列法律诉讼，增加了参与事故的员工早些时候提起的诉讼尚未解决。对于许多投资者来说，这些标志足以阻止他们投资。然而，相反的论点可能是，这些因素已经被定价，公司的未来可能会更加乐观。让我们考虑一下普拉格能源的未来。</blockquote> Considering Plug Power's Valuation<blockquote>考虑到普拉格能源的估值</blockquote> As long-term growth investors, the consideration of valuation is not normally the first port of call when considering an investment decision. We’ve previously laid out our belief that what seems expensive, often is so for good reason, when laying out a bull thesis for other stocks. However, in this case we think it paints a very different story. When considering the valuation of Plug Power, we note a current enterprise value of $16.1 billion, being a $16.8 billion market cap, deducting $1.3 billion cash and adding $0.6 billion in debt. This gives us a forward looking EV/Sales figure for the next twelve months of 36.<blockquote>作为长期成长型投资者，在考虑投资决策时，通常不会首先考虑估值。我们之前曾阐述过我们的信念，即在为其他股票制定牛市论点时，看似昂贵的东西往往是有充分理由的。然而，在这种情况下，我们认为它描绘了一个非常不同的故事。在考虑普拉格能源的估值时，我们注意到目前的企业价值为161亿美元，即168亿美元的市值，扣除13亿美元的现金并增加6亿美元的债务。这为我们提供了未来12个月36的前瞻性EV/销售数据。</blockquote> While the multiple itself is high by most gauges, as we’ve outlined, the number itself is not really our primary concern. If we delve a little deeper into the valuation story, what we can see is a company that traded at 3.8 times its next twelve-month revenues in September 2019 (using the same metrics outlined above). This multiple increased gradually to 12.3 by June 2020, before exploding as high as 56 times next twelve-month sales in December 2020.<blockquote>正如我们所概述的，虽然从大多数标准来看，倍数本身都很高，但数字本身并不是我们真正关心的主要问题。如果我们更深入地研究估值故事，我们可以看到一家公司在2019年9月的交易价格是其未来12个月收入的3.8倍（使用上述相同的指标）。到2020年6月，这一倍数逐渐增加至12.3，然后在2020年12月的未来12个月销售额中飙升至56倍。</blockquote> This incredible volatility in valuation multiple does not appear to have been triggered by developing sales or profitability. PLUG's quarter-on-quarter last twelve-month sales increased a modest 50% between September 2019 and September 2020 ($198 million September 2019 and $308 million September 2020). Thereafter a large decline, caused by their accounting irregularities, led to a December 2020 loss of $94 million.<blockquote>估值倍数的这种令人难以置信的波动似乎并不是由销售或盈利能力的发展引发的。2019年9月至2020年9月期间，PLUG过去12个月的季度销售额小幅增长了50%（2019年9月为1.98亿美元，2020年9月为3.08亿美元）。此后，由于会计违规行为导致大幅下降，导致2020年12月亏损9400万美元。</blockquote> It's our thesis that the stock price surge was not built on any solid financial foundation, more likely linked to investor appetite for exposure to companies that may benefit from future environmental trends, and potentially the strong forecasts from management. As the projections have not yet played out in the numbers, the share price has suffered and this is a trend we expect to continue to see.<blockquote>我们的论点是，股价飙升并非建立在任何坚实的财务基础之上，更有可能与投资者对可能受益于未来环境趋势的公司的投资兴趣以及管理层潜在的强劲预测有关。由于预测尚未体现在数字上，股价受到了影响，我们预计这一趋势将继续出现。</blockquote> One positive case that can be made for PLUG's future from a valuation perspective is that despite negatively trending income statement features, the company appears to have a strong balance sheet. The considerable cash and cash equivalent balance ($1.3 billion) by far surpasses their current and long-term liabilities ($784 million), meaning PLUG should have no issues in withstanding short-term poor performance.<blockquote>从估值角度来看，PLUG未来的一个积极案例是，尽管损益表特征呈负面趋势，但该公司似乎拥有强劲的资产负债表。可观的现金和现金等价物余额（13亿美元）远远超过了其当前和长期负债（7.84亿美元），这意味着PLUG在承受短期业绩不佳方面应该没有问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02d2db1e6065bc1e3501e02da38a16a\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"229\">(Source: PLUG's 2020 Annual report)<blockquote>（来源：普拉格2020年年报）</blockquote> The company's current ratio of 7.21, being current assets divided by current liabilities, suggests a company more than able to continue operations despite being in a loss-making position.While this is encouraging from a bull thesis perspective, our core investment strategy is more revenue and growth orientated. PLUG certainly appears to be well capitalized, yet that alone will not enable the company to drive returns for investors. One obvious option for PLUG would be to deploy their cash into projects that would develop new revenue streams and enhance their earnings position.<blockquote>该公司的流动比率为7.21，即流动资产除以流动负债，表明该公司尽管处于亏损状态，但仍有能力继续运营。虽然从牛市论点的角度来看，这是令人鼓舞的，但我们的核心投资策略更加以收入和增长为导向。PLUG看起来资本充足，但仅此一点并不能使该公司为投资者带来回报。对于PLUG来说，一个显而易见的选择是将现金部署到开发新收入来源并提高盈利状况的项目中。</blockquote> Consideration of growth opportunities<blockquote>考虑增长机会</blockquote> Since we deviated from our normal order of assessment, let’s now return to where the thesis normally begins, that is the story of the company itself. Do we consider this investment story to paint a positive picture of future growth, with products that will change the company fortunes and lead to a prosperous future? If we’re honest, right now, no. Let’s assess why that is the case.<blockquote>由于我们偏离了正常的评估顺序，现在让我们回到论文通常开始的地方，那就是公司本身的故事。我们是否认为这个投资故事描绘了未来增长的积极图景，其产品将改变公司的命运并带来繁荣的未来？如果我们诚实的话，现在，不。让我们评估一下为什么会这样。</blockquote> Firstly, PLUG is a producer of hydrogen powered fuel cell solutions, outlining in their recent&nbsp;annual report&nbsp;that they see their products in “material handling vehicles and industrial trucks.\" This is the first factor that investors should be acutely aware of. The hype of 2020 may have gotten some investors carried away with this “battery producer” for electric vehicles, without understanding its position in the market.<blockquote>首先，PLUG是氢动力燃料电池解决方案的生产商，在他们最近的年度报告中概述了他们在“物料搬运车辆和工业卡车”中看到的产品这是投资者应该敏锐意识到的第一个因素。2020年的炒作可能让一些投资者被这家电动汽车的“电池生产商”冲昏了头脑，没有了解它在市场上的地位。</blockquote> The vehicle battery market is well laid out by this&nbsp;IHS Markit report, which considers the future prospects for hydrogen fuel cells. If you’re bullish on PLUG, this report will give some encouragement, showing that there is a strong increase expected in both vehicles and charging stations in the coming years.<blockquote>这份IHS Markit报告很好地布局了车用电池市场，该报告考虑了氢燃料电池的未来前景。如果您看好PLUG，这份报告将会给您一些鼓励，表明未来几年车辆和充电站预计都会强劲增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c627200e94e6301508a5f09d5381a43b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\">(Source:IHS Markit)<blockquote>（来源：IHS Markit）</blockquote> However, it’s not the headline numbers that caught our eye in this report, but the description of where exactly hydrogen-powered batteries sit within the marketplace. According to the report, while there are clear benefits of hydrogen over the lithium batteries used by Tesla and others, the downside is that they use “more complex processes” and have “about half the wheel to wheel efficiency of battery electric,” concluding that they are more suitable for vehicles with heavier weights and longer trip times – think industrial vehicles and buses.<blockquote>然而，在这份报告中引起我们注意的并不是标题数字，而是对氢动力电池在市场中的确切位置的描述。根据该报告，虽然氢比特斯拉和其他公司使用的锂电池有明显的好处，但缺点是它们使用“更复杂的工艺”，并且“轮对轮效率约为电池电动的一半”，得出的结论是它们更适合重量较重和行程时间较长的车辆——想想工业车辆和公共汽车。</blockquote> In our consideration of the story, this dramatically reduces the total addressable market (\"TAM\"). Yes, there are a lot of industrial vehicles in the world, but there is a significantly larger market for standard lighter automobiles, boats, light-aircraft and drones.<blockquote>在我们对这个故事的考虑中，这极大地减少了总目标市场（“TAM”）。是的，世界上有很多工业车辆，但标准轻型汽车、船只、轻型飞机和无人机的市场要大得多。</blockquote> Our assessment of the story is enhanced further by reporting from the International Energy Agency, who lay out their future projections for electric light duty vehicles (“LDV”) in the graph below – electric cars essentially. With projections for up to 200 million units expected to be on the road in 2030, up from 22 million today. In our opinion, if investing in the clean and green future of electric vehicles, the LDV space is far more appealing, and the smaller TAM in the hydrogen fuel cell space is a concern to the company's long-term prospects.<blockquote>国际能源署的报告进一步增强了我们对这一情况的评估，该机构在下图中列出了他们对电动轻型汽车（“LDV”）的未来预测——主要是电动汽车。预计2030年将有多达2亿辆上路，高于目前的2200万辆。我们认为，如果投资电动汽车的清洁和绿色未来，LDV领域更具吸引力，而氢燃料电池领域较小的TAM是对公司长期前景的担忧。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59bfbab3f6732c318b381f6832adfd3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\">(Source :IEA 2021 Report)<blockquote>（来源：IEA 2021年报告）</blockquote> The contrary thesis for PLUG<blockquote>插头的相反论点</blockquote> We should also consider the counter argument to our thesis on the PLUG story. The bulls will be screaming that despite the smaller market, many companies have been highly profitable while cornering a certain segment of a larger market. That would undoubtedly be a fair assessment to make overall; however, do we consider that PLUG is best placed to do so?<blockquote>我们还应该考虑对我们关于插头故事的论点的反驳。看多者会尖叫，尽管市场较小，但许多公司在垄断更大市场的某一部分的同时获得了高额利润。总体而言，这无疑是一个公平的评估；然而，我们认为插头的最佳位置是这样做的吗？</blockquote> In the heavy duty vehicle and hydrogen power market, there are already firms such as Proterra (PTRA), who have proof of concept and regular sales in electric buses. Plus it has become apparent that heavyweight competitors are entering the space, with General Motors' (GM&nbsp;)plans to supply&nbsp;fuel cells for locomotive trains. With this in mind, it is difficult to see PLUG capturing a significant portion of the smaller TAM that we defined earlier. Our thesis is that they may get squeezed out by this competition in the longer term.<blockquote>在重型汽车和氢动力市场，已经有Proterra(PTRA)等公司在电动公交车方面进行了概念验证和定期销售。此外，很明显，重量级竞争对手正在进入这一领域，通用汽车(GM)计划为机车列车提供燃料电池。考虑到这一点，很难看到PLUG捕获我们之前定义的较小TAM的很大一部分。我们的论点是，从长远来看，他们可能会被这场竞争挤出市场。</blockquote> That being said, the company management clearly forecasts a bright future. Their impressive September 2020&nbsp;slide deck&nbsp;highlights their forecasts of an incredible surge in revenue growth to $1.2 billion in annual sales and $250 billion in operating EBITDA. This impressive growth will be fuelled by expansion of their existing operations and development of new market segments, such as hydrogen power plants, refueling stations, heavy duty electric vehicles, airplanes and even a \"gigafactory.\"<blockquote>话虽如此，公司管理层清楚地预测了光明的未来。他们令人印象深刻的2020年9月幻灯片强调了他们对年收入增长惊人的预测，年销售额将达到12亿美元，营业EBITDA将达到2500亿美元。这一令人印象深刻的增长将受到现有业务扩张和新细分市场开发的推动，例如氢发电厂、加油站、重型电动汽车、飞机甚至“超级工厂”。</blockquote> The coining of a phrase synonymous with Tesla, via their gigafactory plans, may have whet the appetite of some investors. However, we are firmly in the let’s wait and see camp here. Firstly, on the revenue side, even excluding the 2020 annual loss and writing off to the restatement issues mentioned earlier, it’s hard to gather where the $1 billion figure comes from. That would be an approximate 6.5-fold increase on the 2019 annual revenues ($150 million) in a two and a half year period; pretty ambitious? Not quite as ambitious as doing so while increasing EBITDA to $250 million from a historic loss-making position, while presumably also increasing capital expenditure to fund their gigafactory, hydrogen plant, plane and truck expansions? Unfortunately, we are struggling to see the math.<blockquote>通过他们的超级工厂计划，创造了一个与特斯拉同义的短语，可能激起了一些投资者的兴趣。然而，我们在这里坚定地站在让我们拭目以待的阵营。首先，在收入方面，即使排除2020年年度亏损并冲销前面提到的重述问题，也很难收集10亿美元的数字从何而来。这将在两年半内比2019年年收入（1.5亿美元）增长约6.5倍；很有野心？没有那么雄心勃勃，同时将EBITDA从历史性的亏损状况增加到2.5亿美元，同时可能还增加资本支出来资助他们的超级工厂、制氢厂、飞机和卡车扩张？不幸的是，我们很难看到数学。</blockquote> Our conclusions on Plug Power<blockquote>我们对普拉格能源的结论</blockquote> In a global environment currently shifting toward a greener and cleaner world, fuelled by more carbon efficient vehicles, it is no surprise that investors have high hopes for a stock such as PLUG. It is easy to read their marketing material and fall in love with the story and the projections. It's encouraging to see the bold plans that management have for the company; however, we would like to see more results before assuming that these can be executed.<blockquote>在目前全球环境正在向更绿色、更清洁的世界转变的情况下，在碳效率更高的车辆的推动下，投资者对PLUG这样的股票寄予厚望也就不足为奇了。很容易阅读他们的营销材料，并爱上故事和预测。看到管理层为公司制定的大胆计划令人鼓舞；然而，在假设这些可以执行之前，我们希望看到更多的结果。</blockquote> From the research we have undertaken, we believe that the total addressable market for PLUG is smaller than currently perceived by the bulls. Long-term trends suggest that lithium batteries will be the clear leader in fuelling our greener future and we believe the hydrogen market will be considerably smaller, impacting PLUG's ability to grow. When considering this, alongside the strong competition within their subsector, the accounting and litigation red flags we noted earlier, we believe that PLUG may continue to see multiple contraction and a reduction in market cap - hence our bearish outlook at this point in time.<blockquote>根据我们进行的研究，我们认为PLUG的总潜在市场比多头目前认为的要小。长期趋势表明，锂电池将成为推动我们绿色未来的明显领导者，我们相信氢市场将会小得多，从而影响PLUG的增长能力。考虑到这一点，以及我们之前提到的其子行业内的激烈竞争、会计和诉讼危险信号，我们认为PLUG可能会继续出现多重收缩和市值减少，因此我们目前对前景持悲观态度。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Plug Power: This Stock Fails To Get Us Charged Up<blockquote>普拉格能源：这只股票未能让我们充电</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPlug Power: This Stock Fails To Get Us Charged Up<blockquote>普拉格能源：这只股票未能让我们充电</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-06-21 17:37\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Plug Power, the producer of hydrogen fuel cell solutions, has had a turbulent history, with the stock trading at just a fraction of its 1999 tech boom price.</li> <li>Despite experiencing a renaissance in the 2020 tech and growth surge, the stock appears to be re-rating back to its earlier valuation multiple as investor optimism falters.</li> <li>Management has high hopes for the future, with an impressive slide-deck published in the fall of 2020 laying out how they see the company developing in the near future.</li> <li>While forecasts are impressive to read, investors should consider whether there is enough substance in the numbers to back them up.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd52b10176701b73dd7d557921bfd29e\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"480\">3alexd/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>氢燃料电池解决方案生产商普拉格能源的历史动荡，其股价仅为1999年科技繁荣时期价格的一小部分。</li><li>尽管经历了2020年科技和增长激增的复兴，但随着投资者乐观情绪动摇，该股似乎正在重新评级至之前的估值倍数。</li><li>管理层对未来寄予厚望，2020年秋季发布了一份令人印象深刻的幻灯片，阐述了他们对公司在不久的将来发展的看法。</li><li>虽然预测令人印象深刻，但投资者应该考虑这些数字是否有足够的实质内容来支持它们。</li></ul>3alexd/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Despite a strong end to 2020, fuelled by investor optimism for all things linked to our clean and green future, this stock appears to be re-rating back to its former valuation multiple.While there are many factors investors will point towards to support a bull thesis, in our opinion many forward-looking projections are overly ambitious and may ultimately be out of reach. We question whether the total addressable market is significant enough for Plug to prosper, particularly in the light of strong competition.<blockquote>尽管2020年底表现强劲，但在投资者对与我们清洁和绿色未来相关的所有事物的乐观情绪的推动下，该股似乎正在重新评级至之前的估值倍数。虽然投资者会指出许多因素来支持牛市论点，但我们认为许多前瞻性预测过于雄心勃勃，最终可能遥不可及。我们质疑整个潜在市场是否足以让Plug繁荣，特别是在竞争激烈的情况下。</blockquote> The Background to our thesis<blockquote>我们论文的背景</blockquote> Plug Power (PLUG) was a roaring success in the latter part of 2020, increasing by over 400% to its January 2021 peak, before crashing back down to earth as the stock was hit by an&nbsp;accounting scandal.<blockquote>普拉格能源(PLUG)在2020年下半年取得了巨大成功，股价上涨了400%以上，达到2021年1月的峰值，随后因该股受到会计丑闻的打击而暴跌。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c03000d0db7000dd850fad52fdd9068\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> The accounting issues have been covered in detail in the article linked above, so we won’t pore over them in too much detail here, except to say we are big believers in the old adage - “if in doubt, get out.\" An accounting scandal and a restatement of prior year figures is perhaps not the wisest foundations with which to build an investment decision in our opinion.<blockquote>上面链接的文章已经详细介绍了会计问题，所以我们不会在这里详细讨论它们，只是说我们非常相信这句古老的格言——“如果有疑问，就滚出去。”在我们看来，会计丑闻和对上一年数据的重述可能不是做出投资决策的最明智的基础。</blockquote> Whether an accounting scandal is considered a red flag from an investment thesis or not, most investors would baulk at the thought of investing in a firm with legal concerns and unknown liabilities. Unfortunately, for PLUG stockholders, that is exactly what is laid out in the company’s most recent&nbsp;annual report, with a flurry of legal proceedings being filed in early 2021 off the back of the accounting scandal, adding to earlier proceedings from staff involved in an accident which is yet to be resolved. For many investors, these flags would be enough to deter them from an investment. However, a contrary argument may be that these factors are already priced in and the company's future may be rosier. Let's consider what the future holds for Plug Power.<blockquote>无论会计丑闻是否被视为投资论文中的危险信号，大多数投资者都会拒绝投资一家存在法律问题和未知负债的公司。不幸的是，对于PLUG股东来说，这正是该公司最新年度报告中所阐述的内容，由于会计丑闻，2021年初提起了一系列法律诉讼，增加了参与事故的员工早些时候提起的诉讼尚未解决。对于许多投资者来说，这些标志足以阻止他们投资。然而，相反的论点可能是，这些因素已经被定价，公司的未来可能会更加乐观。让我们考虑一下普拉格能源的未来。</blockquote> Considering Plug Power's Valuation<blockquote>考虑到普拉格能源的估值</blockquote> As long-term growth investors, the consideration of valuation is not normally the first port of call when considering an investment decision. We’ve previously laid out our belief that what seems expensive, often is so for good reason, when laying out a bull thesis for other stocks. However, in this case we think it paints a very different story. When considering the valuation of Plug Power, we note a current enterprise value of $16.1 billion, being a $16.8 billion market cap, deducting $1.3 billion cash and adding $0.6 billion in debt. This gives us a forward looking EV/Sales figure for the next twelve months of 36.<blockquote>作为长期成长型投资者，在考虑投资决策时，通常不会首先考虑估值。我们之前曾阐述过我们的信念，即在为其他股票制定牛市论点时，看似昂贵的东西往往是有充分理由的。然而，在这种情况下，我们认为它描绘了一个非常不同的故事。在考虑普拉格能源的估值时，我们注意到目前的企业价值为161亿美元，即168亿美元的市值，扣除13亿美元的现金并增加6亿美元的债务。这为我们提供了未来12个月36的前瞻性EV/销售数据。</blockquote> While the multiple itself is high by most gauges, as we’ve outlined, the number itself is not really our primary concern. If we delve a little deeper into the valuation story, what we can see is a company that traded at 3.8 times its next twelve-month revenues in September 2019 (using the same metrics outlined above). This multiple increased gradually to 12.3 by June 2020, before exploding as high as 56 times next twelve-month sales in December 2020.<blockquote>正如我们所概述的，虽然从大多数标准来看，倍数本身都很高，但数字本身并不是我们真正关心的主要问题。如果我们更深入地研究估值故事，我们可以看到一家公司在2019年9月的交易价格是其未来12个月收入的3.8倍（使用上述相同的指标）。到2020年6月，这一倍数逐渐增加至12.3，然后在2020年12月的未来12个月销售额中飙升至56倍。</blockquote> This incredible volatility in valuation multiple does not appear to have been triggered by developing sales or profitability. PLUG's quarter-on-quarter last twelve-month sales increased a modest 50% between September 2019 and September 2020 ($198 million September 2019 and $308 million September 2020). Thereafter a large decline, caused by their accounting irregularities, led to a December 2020 loss of $94 million.<blockquote>估值倍数的这种令人难以置信的波动似乎并不是由销售或盈利能力的发展引发的。2019年9月至2020年9月期间，PLUG过去12个月的季度销售额小幅增长了50%（2019年9月为1.98亿美元，2020年9月为3.08亿美元）。此后，由于会计违规行为导致大幅下降，导致2020年12月亏损9400万美元。</blockquote> It's our thesis that the stock price surge was not built on any solid financial foundation, more likely linked to investor appetite for exposure to companies that may benefit from future environmental trends, and potentially the strong forecasts from management. As the projections have not yet played out in the numbers, the share price has suffered and this is a trend we expect to continue to see.<blockquote>我们的论点是，股价飙升并非建立在任何坚实的财务基础之上，更有可能与投资者对可能受益于未来环境趋势的公司的投资兴趣以及管理层潜在的强劲预测有关。由于预测尚未体现在数字上，股价受到了影响，我们预计这一趋势将继续出现。</blockquote> One positive case that can be made for PLUG's future from a valuation perspective is that despite negatively trending income statement features, the company appears to have a strong balance sheet. The considerable cash and cash equivalent balance ($1.3 billion) by far surpasses their current and long-term liabilities ($784 million), meaning PLUG should have no issues in withstanding short-term poor performance.<blockquote>从估值角度来看，PLUG未来的一个积极案例是，尽管损益表特征呈负面趋势，但该公司似乎拥有强劲的资产负债表。可观的现金和现金等价物余额（13亿美元）远远超过了其当前和长期负债（7.84亿美元），这意味着PLUG在承受短期业绩不佳方面应该没有问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02d2db1e6065bc1e3501e02da38a16a\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"229\">(Source: PLUG's 2020 Annual report)<blockquote>（来源：普拉格2020年年报）</blockquote> The company's current ratio of 7.21, being current assets divided by current liabilities, suggests a company more than able to continue operations despite being in a loss-making position.While this is encouraging from a bull thesis perspective, our core investment strategy is more revenue and growth orientated. PLUG certainly appears to be well capitalized, yet that alone will not enable the company to drive returns for investors. One obvious option for PLUG would be to deploy their cash into projects that would develop new revenue streams and enhance their earnings position.<blockquote>该公司的流动比率为7.21，即流动资产除以流动负债，表明该公司尽管处于亏损状态，但仍有能力继续运营。虽然从牛市论点的角度来看，这是令人鼓舞的，但我们的核心投资策略更加以收入和增长为导向。PLUG看起来资本充足，但仅此一点并不能使该公司为投资者带来回报。对于PLUG来说，一个显而易见的选择是将现金部署到开发新收入来源并提高盈利状况的项目中。</blockquote> Consideration of growth opportunities<blockquote>考虑增长机会</blockquote> Since we deviated from our normal order of assessment, let’s now return to where the thesis normally begins, that is the story of the company itself. Do we consider this investment story to paint a positive picture of future growth, with products that will change the company fortunes and lead to a prosperous future? If we’re honest, right now, no. Let’s assess why that is the case.<blockquote>由于我们偏离了正常的评估顺序，现在让我们回到论文通常开始的地方，那就是公司本身的故事。我们是否认为这个投资故事描绘了未来增长的积极图景，其产品将改变公司的命运并带来繁荣的未来？如果我们诚实的话，现在，不。让我们评估一下为什么会这样。</blockquote> Firstly, PLUG is a producer of hydrogen powered fuel cell solutions, outlining in their recent&nbsp;annual report&nbsp;that they see their products in “material handling vehicles and industrial trucks.\" This is the first factor that investors should be acutely aware of. The hype of 2020 may have gotten some investors carried away with this “battery producer” for electric vehicles, without understanding its position in the market.<blockquote>首先，PLUG是氢动力燃料电池解决方案的生产商，在他们最近的年度报告中概述了他们在“物料搬运车辆和工业卡车”中看到的产品这是投资者应该敏锐意识到的第一个因素。2020年的炒作可能让一些投资者被这家电动汽车的“电池生产商”冲昏了头脑，没有了解它在市场上的地位。</blockquote> The vehicle battery market is well laid out by this&nbsp;IHS Markit report, which considers the future prospects for hydrogen fuel cells. If you’re bullish on PLUG, this report will give some encouragement, showing that there is a strong increase expected in both vehicles and charging stations in the coming years.<blockquote>这份IHS Markit报告很好地布局了车用电池市场，该报告考虑了氢燃料电池的未来前景。如果您看好PLUG，这份报告将会给您一些鼓励，表明未来几年车辆和充电站预计都会强劲增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c627200e94e6301508a5f09d5381a43b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\">(Source:IHS Markit)<blockquote>（来源：IHS Markit）</blockquote> However, it’s not the headline numbers that caught our eye in this report, but the description of where exactly hydrogen-powered batteries sit within the marketplace. According to the report, while there are clear benefits of hydrogen over the lithium batteries used by Tesla and others, the downside is that they use “more complex processes” and have “about half the wheel to wheel efficiency of battery electric,” concluding that they are more suitable for vehicles with heavier weights and longer trip times – think industrial vehicles and buses.<blockquote>然而，在这份报告中引起我们注意的并不是标题数字，而是对氢动力电池在市场中的确切位置的描述。根据该报告，虽然氢比特斯拉和其他公司使用的锂电池有明显的好处，但缺点是它们使用“更复杂的工艺”，并且“轮对轮效率约为电池电动的一半”，得出的结论是它们更适合重量较重和行程时间较长的车辆——想想工业车辆和公共汽车。</blockquote> In our consideration of the story, this dramatically reduces the total addressable market (\"TAM\"). Yes, there are a lot of industrial vehicles in the world, but there is a significantly larger market for standard lighter automobiles, boats, light-aircraft and drones.<blockquote>在我们对这个故事的考虑中，这极大地减少了总目标市场（“TAM”）。是的，世界上有很多工业车辆，但标准轻型汽车、船只、轻型飞机和无人机的市场要大得多。</blockquote> Our assessment of the story is enhanced further by reporting from the International Energy Agency, who lay out their future projections for electric light duty vehicles (“LDV”) in the graph below – electric cars essentially. With projections for up to 200 million units expected to be on the road in 2030, up from 22 million today. In our opinion, if investing in the clean and green future of electric vehicles, the LDV space is far more appealing, and the smaller TAM in the hydrogen fuel cell space is a concern to the company's long-term prospects.<blockquote>国际能源署的报告进一步增强了我们对这一情况的评估，该机构在下图中列出了他们对电动轻型汽车（“LDV”）的未来预测——主要是电动汽车。预计2030年将有多达2亿辆上路，高于目前的2200万辆。我们认为，如果投资电动汽车的清洁和绿色未来，LDV领域更具吸引力，而氢燃料电池领域较小的TAM是对公司长期前景的担忧。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59bfbab3f6732c318b381f6832adfd3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\">(Source :IEA 2021 Report)<blockquote>（来源：IEA 2021年报告）</blockquote> The contrary thesis for PLUG<blockquote>插头的相反论点</blockquote> We should also consider the counter argument to our thesis on the PLUG story. The bulls will be screaming that despite the smaller market, many companies have been highly profitable while cornering a certain segment of a larger market. That would undoubtedly be a fair assessment to make overall; however, do we consider that PLUG is best placed to do so?<blockquote>我们还应该考虑对我们关于插头故事的论点的反驳。看多者会尖叫，尽管市场较小，但许多公司在垄断更大市场的某一部分的同时获得了高额利润。总体而言，这无疑是一个公平的评估；然而，我们认为插头的最佳位置是这样做的吗？</blockquote> In the heavy duty vehicle and hydrogen power market, there are already firms such as Proterra (PTRA), who have proof of concept and regular sales in electric buses. Plus it has become apparent that heavyweight competitors are entering the space, with General Motors' (GM&nbsp;)plans to supply&nbsp;fuel cells for locomotive trains. With this in mind, it is difficult to see PLUG capturing a significant portion of the smaller TAM that we defined earlier. Our thesis is that they may get squeezed out by this competition in the longer term.<blockquote>在重型汽车和氢动力市场，已经有Proterra(PTRA)等公司在电动公交车方面进行了概念验证和定期销售。此外，很明显，重量级竞争对手正在进入这一领域，通用汽车(GM)计划为机车列车提供燃料电池。考虑到这一点，很难看到PLUG捕获我们之前定义的较小TAM的很大一部分。我们的论点是，从长远来看，他们可能会被这场竞争挤出市场。</blockquote> That being said, the company management clearly forecasts a bright future. Their impressive September 2020&nbsp;slide deck&nbsp;highlights their forecasts of an incredible surge in revenue growth to $1.2 billion in annual sales and $250 billion in operating EBITDA. This impressive growth will be fuelled by expansion of their existing operations and development of new market segments, such as hydrogen power plants, refueling stations, heavy duty electric vehicles, airplanes and even a \"gigafactory.\"<blockquote>话虽如此，公司管理层清楚地预测了光明的未来。他们令人印象深刻的2020年9月幻灯片强调了他们对年收入增长惊人的预测，年销售额将达到12亿美元，营业EBITDA将达到2500亿美元。这一令人印象深刻的增长将受到现有业务扩张和新细分市场开发的推动，例如氢发电厂、加油站、重型电动汽车、飞机甚至“超级工厂”。</blockquote> The coining of a phrase synonymous with Tesla, via their gigafactory plans, may have whet the appetite of some investors. However, we are firmly in the let’s wait and see camp here. Firstly, on the revenue side, even excluding the 2020 annual loss and writing off to the restatement issues mentioned earlier, it’s hard to gather where the $1 billion figure comes from. That would be an approximate 6.5-fold increase on the 2019 annual revenues ($150 million) in a two and a half year period; pretty ambitious? Not quite as ambitious as doing so while increasing EBITDA to $250 million from a historic loss-making position, while presumably also increasing capital expenditure to fund their gigafactory, hydrogen plant, plane and truck expansions? Unfortunately, we are struggling to see the math.<blockquote>通过他们的超级工厂计划，创造了一个与特斯拉同义的短语，可能激起了一些投资者的兴趣。然而，我们在这里坚定地站在让我们拭目以待的阵营。首先，在收入方面，即使排除2020年年度亏损并冲销前面提到的重述问题，也很难收集10亿美元的数字从何而来。这将在两年半内比2019年年收入（1.5亿美元）增长约6.5倍；很有野心？没有那么雄心勃勃，同时将EBITDA从历史性的亏损状况增加到2.5亿美元，同时可能还增加资本支出来资助他们的超级工厂、制氢厂、飞机和卡车扩张？不幸的是，我们很难看到数学。</blockquote> Our conclusions on Plug Power<blockquote>我们对普拉格能源的结论</blockquote> In a global environment currently shifting toward a greener and cleaner world, fuelled by more carbon efficient vehicles, it is no surprise that investors have high hopes for a stock such as PLUG. It is easy to read their marketing material and fall in love with the story and the projections. It's encouraging to see the bold plans that management have for the company; however, we would like to see more results before assuming that these can be executed.<blockquote>在目前全球环境正在向更绿色、更清洁的世界转变的情况下，在碳效率更高的车辆的推动下，投资者对PLUG这样的股票寄予厚望也就不足为奇了。很容易阅读他们的营销材料，并爱上故事和预测。看到管理层为公司制定的大胆计划令人鼓舞；然而，在假设这些可以执行之前，我们希望看到更多的结果。</blockquote> From the research we have undertaken, we believe that the total addressable market for PLUG is smaller than currently perceived by the bulls. Long-term trends suggest that lithium batteries will be the clear leader in fuelling our greener future and we believe the hydrogen market will be considerably smaller, impacting PLUG's ability to grow. When considering this, alongside the strong competition within their subsector, the accounting and litigation red flags we noted earlier, we believe that PLUG may continue to see multiple contraction and a reduction in market cap - hence our bearish outlook at this point in time.<blockquote>根据我们进行的研究，我们认为PLUG的总潜在市场比多头目前认为的要小。长期趋势表明，锂电池将成为推动我们绿色未来的明显领导者，我们相信氢市场将会小得多，从而影响PLUG的增长能力。考虑到这一点，以及我们之前提到的其子行业内的激烈竞争、会计和诉讼危险信号，我们认为PLUG可能会继续出现多重收缩和市值减少，因此我们目前对前景持悲观态度。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435786-plug-power-this-stock-fails-to-get-us-charged-up\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435786-plug-power-this-stock-fails-to-get-us-charged-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196746626","content_text":"Summary\n\nPlug Power, the producer of hydrogen fuel cell solutions, has had a turbulent history, with the stock trading at just a fraction of its 1999 tech boom price.\nDespite experiencing a renaissance in the 2020 tech and growth surge, the stock appears to be re-rating back to its earlier valuation multiple as investor optimism falters.\nManagement has high hopes for the future, with an impressive slide-deck published in the fall of 2020 laying out how they see the company developing in the near future.\nWhile forecasts are impressive to read, investors should consider whether there is enough substance in the numbers to back them up.\n\n3alexd/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nDespite a strong end to 2020, fuelled by investor optimism for all things linked to our clean and green future, this stock appears to be re-rating back to its former valuation multiple.While there are many factors investors will point towards to support a bull thesis, in our opinion many forward-looking projections are overly ambitious and may ultimately be out of reach. We question whether the total addressable market is significant enough for Plug to prosper, particularly in the light of strong competition.\nThe Background to our thesis\nPlug Power (PLUG) was a roaring success in the latter part of 2020, increasing by over 400% to its January 2021 peak, before crashing back down to earth as the stock was hit by an accounting scandal.\nData by YCharts\nThe accounting issues have been covered in detail in the article linked above, so we won’t pore over them in too much detail here, except to say we are big believers in the old adage - “if in doubt, get out.\" An accounting scandal and a restatement of prior year figures is perhaps not the wisest foundations with which to build an investment decision in our opinion.\nWhether an accounting scandal is considered a red flag from an investment thesis or not, most investors would baulk at the thought of investing in a firm with legal concerns and unknown liabilities. Unfortunately, for PLUG stockholders, that is exactly what is laid out in the company’s most recent annual report, with a flurry of legal proceedings being filed in early 2021 off the back of the accounting scandal, adding to earlier proceedings from staff involved in an accident which is yet to be resolved. For many investors, these flags would be enough to deter them from an investment. However, a contrary argument may be that these factors are already priced in and the company's future may be rosier. Let's consider what the future holds for Plug Power.\nConsidering Plug Power's Valuation\nAs long-term growth investors, the consideration of valuation is not normally the first port of call when considering an investment decision. We’ve previously laid out our belief that what seems expensive, often is so for good reason, when laying out a bull thesis for other stocks. However, in this case we think it paints a very different story. When considering the valuation of Plug Power, we note a current enterprise value of $16.1 billion, being a $16.8 billion market cap, deducting $1.3 billion cash and adding $0.6 billion in debt. This gives us a forward looking EV/Sales figure for the next twelve months of 36.\nWhile the multiple itself is high by most gauges, as we’ve outlined, the number itself is not really our primary concern. If we delve a little deeper into the valuation story, what we can see is a company that traded at 3.8 times its next twelve-month revenues in September 2019 (using the same metrics outlined above). This multiple increased gradually to 12.3 by June 2020, before exploding as high as 56 times next twelve-month sales in December 2020.\nThis incredible volatility in valuation multiple does not appear to have been triggered by developing sales or profitability. PLUG's quarter-on-quarter last twelve-month sales increased a modest 50% between September 2019 and September 2020 ($198 million September 2019 and $308 million September 2020). Thereafter a large decline, caused by their accounting irregularities, led to a December 2020 loss of $94 million.\nIt's our thesis that the stock price surge was not built on any solid financial foundation, more likely linked to investor appetite for exposure to companies that may benefit from future environmental trends, and potentially the strong forecasts from management. As the projections have not yet played out in the numbers, the share price has suffered and this is a trend we expect to continue to see.\nOne positive case that can be made for PLUG's future from a valuation perspective is that despite negatively trending income statement features, the company appears to have a strong balance sheet. The considerable cash and cash equivalent balance ($1.3 billion) by far surpasses their current and long-term liabilities ($784 million), meaning PLUG should have no issues in withstanding short-term poor performance.\n(Source: PLUG's 2020 Annual report)\nThe company's current ratio of 7.21, being current assets divided by current liabilities, suggests a company more than able to continue operations despite being in a loss-making position.While this is encouraging from a bull thesis perspective, our core investment strategy is more revenue and growth orientated. PLUG certainly appears to be well capitalized, yet that alone will not enable the company to drive returns for investors. One obvious option for PLUG would be to deploy their cash into projects that would develop new revenue streams and enhance their earnings position.\nConsideration of growth opportunities\nSince we deviated from our normal order of assessment, let’s now return to where the thesis normally begins, that is the story of the company itself. Do we consider this investment story to paint a positive picture of future growth, with products that will change the company fortunes and lead to a prosperous future? If we’re honest, right now, no. Let’s assess why that is the case.\nFirstly, PLUG is a producer of hydrogen powered fuel cell solutions, outlining in their recent annual report that they see their products in “material handling vehicles and industrial trucks.\" This is the first factor that investors should be acutely aware of. The hype of 2020 may have gotten some investors carried away with this “battery producer” for electric vehicles, without understanding its position in the market.\nThe vehicle battery market is well laid out by this IHS Markit report, which considers the future prospects for hydrogen fuel cells. If you’re bullish on PLUG, this report will give some encouragement, showing that there is a strong increase expected in both vehicles and charging stations in the coming years.\n(Source:IHS Markit)\nHowever, it’s not the headline numbers that caught our eye in this report, but the description of where exactly hydrogen-powered batteries sit within the marketplace. According to the report, while there are clear benefits of hydrogen over the lithium batteries used by Tesla and others, the downside is that they use “more complex processes” and have “about half the wheel to wheel efficiency of battery electric,” concluding that they are more suitable for vehicles with heavier weights and longer trip times – think industrial vehicles and buses.\nIn our consideration of the story, this dramatically reduces the total addressable market (\"TAM\"). Yes, there are a lot of industrial vehicles in the world, but there is a significantly larger market for standard lighter automobiles, boats, light-aircraft and drones.\nOur assessment of the story is enhanced further by reporting from the International Energy Agency, who lay out their future projections for electric light duty vehicles (“LDV”) in the graph below – electric cars essentially. With projections for up to 200 million units expected to be on the road in 2030, up from 22 million today. In our opinion, if investing in the clean and green future of electric vehicles, the LDV space is far more appealing, and the smaller TAM in the hydrogen fuel cell space is a concern to the company's long-term prospects.\n(Source :IEA 2021 Report)\nThe contrary thesis for PLUG\nWe should also consider the counter argument to our thesis on the PLUG story. The bulls will be screaming that despite the smaller market, many companies have been highly profitable while cornering a certain segment of a larger market. That would undoubtedly be a fair assessment to make overall; however, do we consider that PLUG is best placed to do so?\nIn the heavy duty vehicle and hydrogen power market, there are already firms such as Proterra (PTRA), who have proof of concept and regular sales in electric buses. Plus it has become apparent that heavyweight competitors are entering the space, with General Motors' (GM )plans to supply fuel cells for locomotive trains. With this in mind, it is difficult to see PLUG capturing a significant portion of the smaller TAM that we defined earlier. Our thesis is that they may get squeezed out by this competition in the longer term.\nThat being said, the company management clearly forecasts a bright future. Their impressive September 2020 slide deck highlights their forecasts of an incredible surge in revenue growth to $1.2 billion in annual sales and $250 billion in operating EBITDA. This impressive growth will be fuelled by expansion of their existing operations and development of new market segments, such as hydrogen power plants, refueling stations, heavy duty electric vehicles, airplanes and even a \"gigafactory.\"\nThe coining of a phrase synonymous with Tesla, via their gigafactory plans, may have whet the appetite of some investors. However, we are firmly in the let’s wait and see camp here. Firstly, on the revenue side, even excluding the 2020 annual loss and writing off to the restatement issues mentioned earlier, it’s hard to gather where the $1 billion figure comes from. That would be an approximate 6.5-fold increase on the 2019 annual revenues ($150 million) in a two and a half year period; pretty ambitious? Not quite as ambitious as doing so while increasing EBITDA to $250 million from a historic loss-making position, while presumably also increasing capital expenditure to fund their gigafactory, hydrogen plant, plane and truck expansions? Unfortunately, we are struggling to see the math.\nOur conclusions on Plug Power\nIn a global environment currently shifting toward a greener and cleaner world, fuelled by more carbon efficient vehicles, it is no surprise that investors have high hopes for a stock such as PLUG. It is easy to read their marketing material and fall in love with the story and the projections. It's encouraging to see the bold plans that management have for the company; however, we would like to see more results before assuming that these can be executed.\nFrom the research we have undertaken, we believe that the total addressable market for PLUG is smaller than currently perceived by the bulls. Long-term trends suggest that lithium batteries will be the clear leader in fuelling our greener future and we believe the hydrogen market will be considerably smaller, impacting PLUG's ability to grow. When considering this, alongside the strong competition within their subsector, the accounting and litigation red flags we noted earlier, we believe that PLUG may continue to see multiple contraction and a reduction in market cap - hence our bearish outlook at this point in time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2461,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/167563499"}