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2021-06-21
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Nomura Warns Of Market "Reversal Risk" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”,美联储发言收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>
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Fed speakers on the calendar ahead......which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already s","content":"<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周市场对美联储 “鹰派惊喜 ”和吉姆-布拉德(Jim Bullard)周五上午发表的 “你认为那是鹰派,拿着我的啤酒 ”的言论之后,野村证券(Nomura)的查理-麦切利戈特(Charlie McElligott)警告说:“政策错误”。<b>交易员现在需要为本周可能出现的 “言论逆转 ”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个惊人的十六(!)美联储发言人在未来的日历上……</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已大幅高于亚洲重新开盘低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b> particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, <i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i> (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>麦克埃利戈特警告说,<b>风险可能会造成逆势逆转,这可能会让许多人再次措手不及。从战术上讲,美联储任何退缩的迹象都可能引发 “再通胀 ”的前景。</b>特别是如果美元在此基础上进一步走弱,实际收益率将再次向负倾斜,UST曲线将在上周引人注目的清算/止损之后再次 “熊市陡峭”--这也可能引发美国股市此前 “周期价值高于长期增长 ”趋势的同时反弹,<i>在上述表达式上周被强烈扣除后</i>(纳斯达克上周+0.4%,罗素-4.1%)</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“再膨胀”:野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%;循环价值因子-3.5%;增长预测-3.1%;LT动量-3.1%;沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%;防御值 -2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股票“持续时间”:IG信用敏感因子+2.7%;高频拥挤+2.2%;低风险+2.0%;尺寸(大-小)+1.3%;股息 +1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, <b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是 “不惜一切代价维持宽松金融环境 ”的不言而喻的 “美联储第三项任务 ”所造成的后果</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环,美联储政策和美国经济实际上会发挥作用,以至于在 “旧 ”央行中,美联储会相应地转向 “鹰派 ”并开始收紧政策;但在 “美联储看跌 ”的世界秩序中,市场力量现在推动了上述 “紧缩 ”的负面经济放缓影响,并产生了 “缩减收缩发脾气 ”,造成了市场波动、<b>如果市场发生变化,最终迫使美联储收回鹰派基调。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下,<b>本周的风险变成了,美联储非常活跃的发言人日程表中的一部分人现在将表达一种 “担忧”,即上周的点阵图和 SEP 将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望,阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期,然后可能会传达这些预测有多 “有条件”的信息。</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力,试图扭转市场对 “金融环境收紧 ”的一些预期,因为美联储认为 “鹰派转向 ”会抵消他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力!</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前无数次看到的那样,如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈服”,那么vol飙升和对风险资产的强制去杠杆化/对冲就会逆转,“丰富的vol”随后被抛售。按照标准的滞后模式,这意味着随着rVol在预期的“美联储回调”之后重置更低,随着vol被打破,大量动态对冲(空头)和/或来自“目标波动性/vol控制”领域的风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将使市场恢复上涨。<b><i>- “崩溃,然后崩溃”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, <b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex </b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步有助于这些潜在的“弹射”(撞击下降,然后撞击)光学器件,<b>在上周异常超额的 Op-Ex 之后,我们现在自然而然地看到了更“干净”的期权定位(当前 ES 为 4167,这是 “Delta 中性与现货”水平)。</b><b><i>(不过值得注意的是,我们现在处于 “短伽马 vs 现货 ”区域,最后 4167 对 4237 “伽马中性 ”线)。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd </b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b> this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>如果 VRP 人群将 “鹰派美联储惊喜 ”的增量飙升卖给了交易商。</b><b><i>(特别是本周任何“美联储回归”的迹象),</i></b><b>此后,这种波动性和伽马的脉冲供应将再次延续一个更加稳定、绝缘的市场,因为交易商的“长伽马”意味着对冲流量将进一步抑制市场波动的潜力</b>-因此,“销量”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”,美联储发言收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周市场对美联储 “鹰派惊喜 ”和吉姆-布拉德(Jim Bullard)周五上午发表的 “你认为那是鹰派,拿着我的啤酒 ”的言论之后,野村证券(Nomura)的查理-麦切利戈特(Charlie McElligott)警告说:“政策错误”。<b>交易员现在需要为本周可能出现的 “言论逆转 ”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个惊人的十六(!)美联储发言人在未来的日历上……</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已大幅高于亚洲重新开盘低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b> particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, <i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i> (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>麦克埃利戈特警告说,<b>风险可能会造成逆势逆转,这可能会让许多人再次措手不及。从战术上讲,美联储任何退缩的迹象都可能引发 “再通胀 ”的前景。</b>特别是如果美元在此基础上进一步走弱,实际收益率将再次向负倾斜,UST曲线将在上周引人注目的清算/止损之后再次 “熊市陡峭”--这也可能引发美国股市此前 “周期价值高于长期增长 ”趋势的同时反弹,<i>在上述表达式上周被强烈扣除后</i>(纳斯达克上周+0.4%,罗素-4.1%)</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“再膨胀”:野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%;循环价值因子-3.5%;增长预测-3.1%;LT动量-3.1%;沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%;防御值 -2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股票“持续时间”:IG信用敏感因子+2.7%;高频拥挤+2.2%;低风险+2.0%;尺寸(大-小)+1.3%;股息 +1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, <b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是 “不惜一切代价维持宽松金融环境 ”的不言而喻的 “美联储第三项任务 ”所造成的后果</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环,美联储政策和美国经济实际上会发挥作用,以至于在 “旧 ”央行中,美联储会相应地转向 “鹰派 ”并开始收紧政策;但在 “美联储看跌 ”的世界秩序中,市场力量现在推动了上述 “紧缩 ”的负面经济放缓影响,并产生了 “缩减收缩发脾气 ”,造成了市场波动、<b>如果市场发生变化,最终迫使美联储收回鹰派基调。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下,<b>本周的风险变成了,美联储非常活跃的发言人日程表中的一部分人现在将表达一种 “担忧”,即上周的点阵图和 SEP 将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望,阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期,然后可能会传达这些预测有多 “有条件”的信息。</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力,试图扭转市场对 “金融环境收紧 ”的一些预期,因为美联储认为 “鹰派转向 ”会抵消他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力!</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们之前无数次看到的那样,如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈服”,那么vol飙升和对风险资产的强制去杠杆化/对冲就会逆转,“丰富的vol”随后被抛售。按照标准的滞后模式,这意味着随着rVol在预期的“美联储回调”之后重置更低,随着vol被打破,大量动态对冲(空头)和/或来自“目标波动性/vol控制”领域的风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将使市场恢复上涨。<b><i>- “崩溃,然后崩溃”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, <b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex </b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步有助于这些潜在的“弹射”(撞击下降,然后撞击)光学器件,<b>在上周异常超额的 Op-Ex 之后,我们现在自然而然地看到了更“干净”的期权定位(当前 ES 为 4167,这是 “Delta 中性与现货”水平)。</b><b><i>(不过值得注意的是,我们现在处于 “短伽马 vs 现货 ”区域,最后 4167 对 4237 “伽马中性 ”线)。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd </b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b> this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>如果 VRP 人群将 “鹰派美联储惊喜 ”的增量飙升卖给了交易商。</b><b><i>(特别是本周任何“美联储回归”的迹象),</i></b><b>此后,这种波动性和伽马的脉冲供应将再次延续一个更加稳定、绝缘的市场,因为交易商的“长伽马”意味着对冲流量将进一步抑制市场波动的潜力</b>-因此,“销量”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133913488","content_text":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...\n...which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows...\nWhich McElligott warns,risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,” particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)\n\nEquities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%\nEquities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%\n\nThis is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought-an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.\nIn this case,the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!\nAnd as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.\nTo further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex (although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).\n\nAnd in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd (particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk), this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3493,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/167715079"}
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