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2021-06-16
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Why a Hawkish Fed Might Not Spook Emerging Markets<blockquote>为什么鹰派美联储可能不会吓到新兴市场</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":169052998,"tweetId":"169052998","gmtCreate":1623810110814,"gmtModify":1634027766421,"author":{"id":3551841106527913,"idStr":"3551841106527913","authorId":3551841106527913,"authorIdStr":"3551841106527913","name":"hanrong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fb2a89960bce28336c5be280346cff5","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like and comment </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like and comment </p></body></html>","text":"Like and comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169052998","repostId":1178629454,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178629454","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623801608,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178629454?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 08:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why a Hawkish Fed Might Not Spook Emerging Markets<blockquote>为什么鹰派美联储可能不会吓到新兴市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178629454","media":"Barrons","summary":"Emerging markets threw a toddler-worthy tantrum in 2013 when the Federal Reserve suggested it may ta","content":"<p>Emerging markets threw a toddler-worthy tantrum in 2013 when the Federal Reserve suggested it may taper its crisis-era asset purchases. Investors are warily watching the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week and bracing for another painful “taper tantrum” in emerging markets that led to painful losses . But it may not be as bad this time.</p><p><blockquote>2013年，当美联储暗示可能缩减危机时期的资产购买时，新兴市场大发雷霆。投资者正在警惕地关注美联储本周的政策会议，并准备迎接新兴市场另一场导致痛苦损失的痛苦“缩减恐慌”。但这次可能没那么糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Fund managers cited a taper tantrum as the second-biggest risk after inflation in a recent survey by Bank of America. Emerging markets felt the brunt of the last taper tantrum, with the MSCI Emerging Markets index falling roughly 10% in four months as investors yanked money out as higher yields in the U.S. offered them alternatives in 2013. That added pressure to emerging market countries, exacerbating precarious fiscal positions in countries reliant on foreign funding.</p><p><blockquote>在美国银行最近的一项调查中，基金经理将缩减恐慌列为仅次于通胀的第二大风险。新兴市场在上一次缩减恐慌中首当其冲，摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数在四个月内下跌了约10%，因为2013年美国收益率上升为他们提供了替代方案，投资者纷纷撤资。这增加了新兴市场国家的压力，加剧了依赖外国资金的国家岌岌可危的财政状况。</blockquote></p><p> Many emerging market countries have better fiscal positions and stronger reserves to deal this time to deal with the fallout from another Fed taper. Increased demand for commodities should also help insulate non-Asian markets from disruptive outflows, giving policy makers more room to maneuver, according to Gavkeal Research analysts Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui.</p><p><blockquote>许多新兴市场国家有更好的财政状况和更强大的储备来应对这一次美联储再次缩减的影响。Gavkeal Research分析师Udith Sikand和Vincent Tsui表示，大宗商品需求的增加也应有助于使非亚洲市场免受破坏性资金外流的影响，从而为政策制定者提供更多的回旋余地。</blockquote></p><p> The duo expects a less extreme reaction in emerging markets, writing in a note this month that the Fed may also be more attuned to the fragility of the global backdrop and careful to avoid sparking a panic.</p><p><blockquote>两人预计新兴市场的反应不会那么极端，他们在本月的一份报告中写道，美联储也可能更加适应全球背景的脆弱性，并小心避免引发恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, U.S. real yields are already inching up, which could mean any further rise in yields on the back of a Fed tapering could be smaller. As a result, the analysts think several emerging markets could be less vulnerable this time around and even outperform.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国实际收益率已经在小幅上升，这可能意味着美联储缩减规模后收益率的进一步上升可能会更小。因此，分析师认为，这一次几个新兴市场可能不那么脆弱，甚至跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, if a Fed taper triggers the type of outflows seen last time from emerging markets—roughly $30 billion—there will be few places to hide. The growth outlook for emerging markets, especially outside of India and China, is also less exciting and many countries will likely be grappling with higher levels of debt post-Covid. And the most fiscally fragile could still be vulnerable (think Turkey and South Africa).</p><p><blockquote>当然，如果美联储缩减规模引发上次新兴市场的资金外流——大约300亿美元——将无处可藏。新兴市场（尤其是印度和中国以外的市场）的增长前景也不那么令人兴奋，许多国家可能会在新冠疫情后努力应对更高水平的债务。财政最脆弱的国家可能仍然很脆弱（想想土耳其和南非）。</blockquote></p><p> But some money managers see pockets of opportunity in emerging markets. While 2013 is still fresh in the minds of emerging market investors, not all instances of Fed tightening have created such painful periods. Between 2004 to 2006, the MSCI Emerging Markets index returned more than 80% as the Federal Reserve raised the fed-funds rate by 4.25 percentage points, analysts at RockCreek wrote in a note to clients this week. A strong economic recovery led to the tightening in 2004—a period where emerging markets also saw the benefits of a strong commodities market. The RockCreek team highlighted similarities to that period: Commodities are booming again and the U.S. is in the throes of an economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>但一些基金经理在新兴市场看到了一些机会。尽管新兴市场投资者对2013年记忆犹新，但并非所有美联储紧缩政策都造成了如此痛苦的时期。RockCreek分析师本周在给客户的一份报告中写道，2004年至2006年间，随着美联储将联邦基金利率提高4.25个百分点，MSCI新兴市场指数的回报率超过80%。强劲的经济复苏导致了2004年的紧缩——在此期间，新兴市场也看到了强劲的大宗商品市场的好处。RockCreek团队强调了与那个时期的相似之处：大宗商品再次繁荣，而美国正处于经济复苏的阵痛中。</blockquote></p><p> Picking the right spots in emerging markets will be important, as some countries are better-positioned for stronger commodity demand and to withstand volatility from a Fed taper. Others, like China are still grappling with country-specific issues,like antimonopoly measures that loom over not just the e-commerce and internet sectors but also education.</p><p><blockquote>在新兴市场选择正确的地点非常重要，因为一些国家更有能力应对更强劲的大宗商品需求，并抵御美联储缩减规模带来的波动。其他国家，如中国，仍在努力解决特定国家的问题，如不仅笼罩着电子商务和互联网行业，还笼罩着教育领域的反垄断措施。</blockquote></p><p> Oxford Economics strategists favor commodity-oriented beneficiaries in emerging markets in Brazil, for example, where valuations are less stretched than in “new-economy” areas of the market like Chinese technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>例如，牛津经济研究院的策略师看好巴西新兴市场中以大宗商品为导向的受益者，这些市场的估值没有中国科技股等“新经济”领域那么紧张。</blockquote></p><p> Some emerging markets managers are also looking to banks in countries like Brazil as a way to benefit from the commodities boom and broader recovery. Gavekal also recommends overweight emerging-market stocks with a preference for non-Asian commodity exporters, as well as countries with weaker currencies like Brazil and Mexico.</p><p><blockquote>一些新兴市场经理也将目光投向巴西等国的银行，以此从大宗商品繁荣和更广泛的复苏中获益。Gavekal还推荐跑赢大盘新兴市场股票，优先考虑非亚洲大宗商品出口国，以及巴西和墨西哥等货币疲软的国家。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares MSCI Brazilexchange-traded fund (EWZ) is up 26% over the last three months; the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW) is up nearly 13% while the China-heavy iShares MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM) is up just 4% over that period.</p><p><blockquote>iShares MSCI巴西交易所交易基金(EWZ)过去三个月上涨了26%；iShares MSCI墨西哥ETF(EWW)上涨近13%，而以中国为主的iShares MSCI新兴市场指数(EEM)同期仅上涨4%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why a Hawkish Fed Might Not Spook Emerging Markets<blockquote>为什么鹰派美联储可能不会吓到新兴市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy a Hawkish Fed Might Not Spook Emerging Markets<blockquote>为什么鹰派美联储可能不会吓到新兴市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 08:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Emerging markets threw a toddler-worthy tantrum in 2013 when the Federal Reserve suggested it may taper its crisis-era asset purchases. Investors are warily watching the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week and bracing for another painful “taper tantrum” in emerging markets that led to painful losses . But it may not be as bad this time.</p><p><blockquote>2013年，当美联储暗示可能缩减危机时期的资产购买时，新兴市场大发雷霆。投资者正在警惕地关注美联储本周的政策会议，并准备迎接新兴市场另一场导致痛苦损失的痛苦“缩减恐慌”。但这次可能没那么糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Fund managers cited a taper tantrum as the second-biggest risk after inflation in a recent survey by Bank of America. Emerging markets felt the brunt of the last taper tantrum, with the MSCI Emerging Markets index falling roughly 10% in four months as investors yanked money out as higher yields in the U.S. offered them alternatives in 2013. That added pressure to emerging market countries, exacerbating precarious fiscal positions in countries reliant on foreign funding.</p><p><blockquote>在美国银行最近的一项调查中，基金经理将缩减恐慌列为仅次于通胀的第二大风险。新兴市场在上一次缩减恐慌中首当其冲，摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数在四个月内下跌了约10%，因为2013年美国收益率上升为他们提供了替代方案，投资者纷纷撤资。这增加了新兴市场国家的压力，加剧了依赖外国资金的国家岌岌可危的财政状况。</blockquote></p><p> Many emerging market countries have better fiscal positions and stronger reserves to deal this time to deal with the fallout from another Fed taper. Increased demand for commodities should also help insulate non-Asian markets from disruptive outflows, giving policy makers more room to maneuver, according to Gavkeal Research analysts Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui.</p><p><blockquote>许多新兴市场国家有更好的财政状况和更强大的储备来应对这一次美联储再次缩减的影响。Gavkeal Research分析师Udith Sikand和Vincent Tsui表示，大宗商品需求的增加也应有助于使非亚洲市场免受破坏性资金外流的影响，从而为政策制定者提供更多的回旋余地。</blockquote></p><p> The duo expects a less extreme reaction in emerging markets, writing in a note this month that the Fed may also be more attuned to the fragility of the global backdrop and careful to avoid sparking a panic.</p><p><blockquote>两人预计新兴市场的反应不会那么极端，他们在本月的一份报告中写道，美联储也可能更加适应全球背景的脆弱性，并小心避免引发恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, U.S. real yields are already inching up, which could mean any further rise in yields on the back of a Fed tapering could be smaller. As a result, the analysts think several emerging markets could be less vulnerable this time around and even outperform.</p><p><blockquote>此外，美国实际收益率已经在小幅上升，这可能意味着美联储缩减规模后收益率的进一步上升可能会更小。因此，分析师认为，这一次几个新兴市场可能不那么脆弱，甚至跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, if a Fed taper triggers the type of outflows seen last time from emerging markets—roughly $30 billion—there will be few places to hide. The growth outlook for emerging markets, especially outside of India and China, is also less exciting and many countries will likely be grappling with higher levels of debt post-Covid. And the most fiscally fragile could still be vulnerable (think Turkey and South Africa).</p><p><blockquote>当然，如果美联储缩减规模引发上次新兴市场的资金外流——大约300亿美元——将无处可藏。新兴市场（尤其是印度和中国以外的市场）的增长前景也不那么令人兴奋，许多国家可能会在新冠疫情后努力应对更高水平的债务。财政最脆弱的国家可能仍然很脆弱（想想土耳其和南非）。</blockquote></p><p> But some money managers see pockets of opportunity in emerging markets. While 2013 is still fresh in the minds of emerging market investors, not all instances of Fed tightening have created such painful periods. Between 2004 to 2006, the MSCI Emerging Markets index returned more than 80% as the Federal Reserve raised the fed-funds rate by 4.25 percentage points, analysts at RockCreek wrote in a note to clients this week. A strong economic recovery led to the tightening in 2004—a period where emerging markets also saw the benefits of a strong commodities market. The RockCreek team highlighted similarities to that period: Commodities are booming again and the U.S. is in the throes of an economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>但一些基金经理在新兴市场看到了一些机会。尽管新兴市场投资者对2013年记忆犹新，但并非所有美联储紧缩政策都造成了如此痛苦的时期。RockCreek分析师本周在给客户的一份报告中写道，2004年至2006年间，随着美联储将联邦基金利率提高4.25个百分点，MSCI新兴市场指数的回报率超过80%。强劲的经济复苏导致了2004年的紧缩——在此期间，新兴市场也看到了强劲的大宗商品市场的好处。RockCreek团队强调了与那个时期的相似之处：大宗商品再次繁荣，而美国正处于经济复苏的阵痛中。</blockquote></p><p> Picking the right spots in emerging markets will be important, as some countries are better-positioned for stronger commodity demand and to withstand volatility from a Fed taper. Others, like China are still grappling with country-specific issues,like antimonopoly measures that loom over not just the e-commerce and internet sectors but also education.</p><p><blockquote>在新兴市场选择正确的地点非常重要，因为一些国家更有能力应对更强劲的大宗商品需求，并抵御美联储缩减规模带来的波动。其他国家，如中国，仍在努力解决特定国家的问题，如不仅笼罩着电子商务和互联网行业，还笼罩着教育领域的反垄断措施。</blockquote></p><p> Oxford Economics strategists favor commodity-oriented beneficiaries in emerging markets in Brazil, for example, where valuations are less stretched than in “new-economy” areas of the market like Chinese technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>例如，牛津经济研究院的策略师看好巴西新兴市场中以大宗商品为导向的受益者，这些市场的估值没有中国科技股等“新经济”领域那么紧张。</blockquote></p><p> Some emerging markets managers are also looking to banks in countries like Brazil as a way to benefit from the commodities boom and broader recovery. Gavekal also recommends overweight emerging-market stocks with a preference for non-Asian commodity exporters, as well as countries with weaker currencies like Brazil and Mexico.</p><p><blockquote>一些新兴市场经理也将目光投向巴西等国的银行，以此从大宗商品繁荣和更广泛的复苏中获益。Gavekal还推荐跑赢大盘新兴市场股票，优先考虑非亚洲大宗商品出口国，以及巴西和墨西哥等货币疲软的国家。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares MSCI Brazilexchange-traded fund (EWZ) is up 26% over the last three months; the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW) is up nearly 13% while the China-heavy iShares MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM) is up just 4% over that period.</p><p><blockquote>iShares MSCI巴西交易所交易基金(EWZ)过去三个月上涨了26%；iShares MSCI墨西哥ETF(EWW)上涨近13%，而以中国为主的iShares MSCI新兴市场指数(EEM)同期仅上涨4%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/taper-tantrum-why-emerging-markets-may-keep-their-cool-51623796608?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/taper-tantrum-why-emerging-markets-may-keep-their-cool-51623796608?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178629454","content_text":"Emerging markets threw a toddler-worthy tantrum in 2013 when the Federal Reserve suggested it may taper its crisis-era asset purchases. Investors are warily watching the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week and bracing for another painful “taper tantrum” in emerging markets that led to painful losses . But it may not be as bad this time.\nFund managers cited a taper tantrum as the second-biggest risk after inflation in a recent survey by Bank of America. Emerging markets felt the brunt of the last taper tantrum, with the MSCI Emerging Markets index falling roughly 10% in four months as investors yanked money out as higher yields in the U.S. offered them alternatives in 2013. That added pressure to emerging market countries, exacerbating precarious fiscal positions in countries reliant on foreign funding.\nMany emerging market countries have better fiscal positions and stronger reserves to deal this time to deal with the fallout from another Fed taper. Increased demand for commodities should also help insulate non-Asian markets from disruptive outflows, giving policy makers more room to maneuver, according to Gavkeal Research analysts Udith Sikand and Vincent Tsui.\nThe duo expects a less extreme reaction in emerging markets, writing in a note this month that the Fed may also be more attuned to the fragility of the global backdrop and careful to avoid sparking a panic.\nPlus, U.S. real yields are already inching up, which could mean any further rise in yields on the back of a Fed tapering could be smaller. As a result, the analysts think several emerging markets could be less vulnerable this time around and even outperform.\nOf course, if a Fed taper triggers the type of outflows seen last time from emerging markets—roughly $30 billion—there will be few places to hide. The growth outlook for emerging markets, especially outside of India and China, is also less exciting and many countries will likely be grappling with higher levels of debt post-Covid. And the most fiscally fragile could still be vulnerable (think Turkey and South Africa).\nBut some money managers see pockets of opportunity in emerging markets. While 2013 is still fresh in the minds of emerging market investors, not all instances of Fed tightening have created such painful periods. Between 2004 to 2006, the MSCI Emerging Markets index returned more than 80% as the Federal Reserve raised the fed-funds rate by 4.25 percentage points, analysts at RockCreek wrote in a note to clients this week. A strong economic recovery led to the tightening in 2004—a period where emerging markets also saw the benefits of a strong commodities market. The RockCreek team highlighted similarities to that period: Commodities are booming again and the U.S. is in the throes of an economic recovery.\nPicking the right spots in emerging markets will be important, as some countries are better-positioned for stronger commodity demand and to withstand volatility from a Fed taper. Others, like China are still grappling with country-specific issues,like antimonopoly measures that loom over not just the e-commerce and internet sectors but also education.\nOxford Economics strategists favor commodity-oriented beneficiaries in emerging markets in Brazil, for example, where valuations are less stretched than in “new-economy” areas of the market like Chinese technology stocks.\nSome emerging markets managers are also looking to banks in countries like Brazil as a way to benefit from the commodities boom and broader recovery. Gavekal also recommends overweight emerging-market stocks with a preference for non-Asian commodity exporters, as well as countries with weaker currencies like Brazil and Mexico.\nThe iShares MSCI Brazilexchange-traded fund (EWZ) is up 26% over the last three months; the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW) is up nearly 13% while the China-heavy iShares MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM) is up just 4% over that period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/169052998"}
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