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2021-06-16

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4 things to watch for when the Fed meets Wednesday<blockquote>美联储周三会议时需要注意的4件事</blockquote>

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Slowing back asset purchases would be taking the central bank's foot off the gas -- a long way from actually tapping on the brakes with higher interest rates.<blockquote>美联储官员引导市场，在看到实现失业目标的“实质性进一步进展”之前，尤其是在经济从疫情复苏之际，美联储不会缩减资产购买规模。放缓资产购买将使央行松开油门——距离实际踩下更高利率的刹车还有很长的路要走。</blockquote> Economists think markets have been so far surprisingly complacent about inflation. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has fallen to 1.5% from closer to 1.64% just after the Fed's last meeting in late April.<blockquote>经济学家认为，迄今为止，市场对通胀的自满程度令人惊讶。美联储4月底上次会议后，10年期国债收益率已从接近1.64%降至1.5%。</blockquote> Here's a look at what economists and investors will be watching for Wednesday when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting. Fed officials will release a statement at 2pm Eastern followed by a press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m.<blockquote>以下是周三美联储结束为期两天的会议时经济学家和投资者将关注的内容。美联储官员将于东部时间下午2点发布声明，随后美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2点30分召开新闻发布会。</blockquote> Inflation is transitory<blockquote>通货膨胀是暂时的</blockquote> The Fed statement is widely expected to repeat the phrase that the pickup in inflation \"largely reflects transitory factors.\" The Fed may drive this point home in its updated economic forecasts. In March, the Fed had core PCE inflation at 2.2% in 2021, 2% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023. The 2021 forecast of core inflation is likely to rise but the Fed is expected to keep 2023 core inflation unchanged.<blockquote>人们普遍预计美联储声明将重复通胀回升“很大程度上反映了暂时性因素”这句话。美联储可能会在更新的经济预测中强调这一点。3月份，美联储预计2021年核心PCE通胀率为2.2%，2022年为2%，2023年为2.1%。2021年核心通胀预测可能会上升，但预计美联储将维持2023年核心通胀不变。</blockquote> 'Talking about talking about' tapering<blockquote>“谈论谈论”逐渐减少</blockquote> Fed officials are expected to discuss slowing down, or tapering, asset purchases, but only in a preliminary way without laying out any plans. \"We expect Chair Powell to stress that all, or almost all, participants, see tapering action as very premature,\" wrote Steve Englander, head of North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank.<blockquote>预计美联储官员将讨论放缓或缩减资产购买，但只是初步的，没有制定任何计划。渣打银行北美宏观策略主管史蒂夫·英格兰德写道：“我们预计鲍威尔主席将强调，所有或几乎所有参与者都认为缩减行动还为时过早。”</blockquote> Tolerate a rising expectation of higher rates over 2023-2024<blockquote>容忍2023-2024年利率上升的预期不断上升</blockquote> If inflation is more persistent than the Fed now believes, the central bank needs to signal it will do what it needs to do to keep inflation under control. \"In that record, the Fed will, if not encourage, at least tolerate, a rising expectation of [higher] rates over 2023 and 2024,\" said Bruce Kazman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, in an interview on Bloomberg Television.<blockquote>如果通胀比美联储现在认为的更持久，央行需要发出信号，表明它将采取必要措施来控制通胀。摩根大通首席经济学家布鲁斯·卡兹曼(Bruce Kazman)在接受彭博电视台采访时表示：“根据这一记录，美联储即使不鼓励，也至少会容忍2023年和2024年加息的预期上升。”</blockquote> Consequently, the median dot on the chart that signal's the Fed's consensus could signal the first rate hike in 2023. In March, 11 of 18 top Fed officials thought policy would be unchanged. Only four of 18 officials were projecting a rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>因此，图表上表明美联储共识的中点可能预示着2023年首次加息。3月份，18名美联储高级官员中有11人认为政策不会改变。18名官员中只有4名预计2022年加息。</blockquote> Many other economists think it is still unlikely the median projection will change from the current rate close to zero.<blockquote>许多其他经济学家认为，预测中值仍不太可能从目前接近零的利率发生变化。</blockquote> Will Powell repeat that the Fed is 'a long way' from its goals and 'some time' for substantial further progress?<blockquote>鲍威尔是否会重申美联储距离其目标“还有很长的路要走”，并且需要“一些时间”才能取得实质性的进一步进展？</blockquote> Jim O'Sullivan, thinks the Fed has to start getting away from this language, which Powell used to signal that policy would remain unchanged. \"The longer you leave it in place, the bigger deal it is when you drop it,\" he said. So he thinks Powell will no longer say that it will be \"some time\" before the economy reaches the benchmark of \"some further progress\" to allow the Fed to taper asset purchases. This won't be a signal of imminent tapering. \"It is not in the next three months -- it could happen by the end of the year. O'Sullivan thinks the Fed will show patience and not start tapering until next March.<blockquote>吉姆·奥沙利文认为，美联储必须开始摆脱这种语言，鲍威尔用这种语言表示政策将保持不变。“你把它留在原地的时间越长，当你把它扔掉时，它的影响就越大，”他说。所以他认为鲍威尔不会再说经济达到“一些进一步进展”的基准还需要“一段时间”才能允许美联储缩减资产购买。这不会是即将缩减规模的信号。“这不会在未来三个月内发生——可能会在今年年底发生。奥沙利文认为美联储将表现出耐心，直到明年3月才开始缩减规模。”</blockquote> Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote she wouldn't be shocked if Powell set out conditions for \"substantial further progress.\" This would go a long way toward removing uncertainty about when the Fed might reach the threshold, she said.<blockquote>高频经济公司首席美国经济学家鲁比拉·法鲁奇写道，如果鲍威尔为“实质性的进一步进展”设定条件，她不会感到震惊。她表示，这将大大有助于消除美联储何时可能达到门槛的不确定性。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 things to watch for when the Fed meets Wednesday<blockquote>美联储周三会议时需要注意的4件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 things to watch for when the Fed meets Wednesday<blockquote>美联储周三会议时需要注意的4件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-16 14:30\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nDespite the big spike in inflation, the Federal Reserve is set to signal on Wedesday that it is not going to change interest rate policy anytime soon -- at least through the end of 2022, economists say.<blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管通胀大幅飙升，但美联储将于周三发出信号，表示不会很快改变利率政策——至少在2022年底之前是这样。</blockquote> \"The message this week will likely be a heavy dose of 'still a long way to go' sprinkled with concerns about upside risks to inflation,\" wrote Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.<blockquote>巴克莱首席美国经济学家迈克尔·加彭写道：“本周的信息可能是‘还有很长的路要走’，并夹杂着对通胀上行风险的担忧。”</blockquote> The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week against a backdrop of the consumer price index up 5% annual rate.<blockquote>在消费者价格指数年率上涨5%的背景下，美联储将于本周周二和周三召开会议。</blockquote> The Fed is still buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month along with keeping its benchmark rate close to zero, in order to support the economy.<blockquote>美联储仍在每月购买800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准利率保持在接近于零的水平，以支持经济。</blockquote> Fed officials have guided the market that it won't scale back the asset purchases until it sees \"substantial further progress\" towards its unemployment target in particular as the economy recovers from the pandemic. Slowing back asset purchases would be taking the central bank's foot off the gas -- a long way from actually tapping on the brakes with higher interest rates.<blockquote>美联储官员引导市场，在看到实现失业目标的“实质性进一步进展”之前，尤其是在经济从疫情复苏之际，美联储不会缩减资产购买规模。放缓资产购买将使央行松开油门——距离实际踩下更高利率的刹车还有很长的路要走。</blockquote> Economists think markets have been so far surprisingly complacent about inflation. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has fallen to 1.5% from closer to 1.64% just after the Fed's last meeting in late April.<blockquote>经济学家认为，迄今为止，市场对通胀的自满程度令人惊讶。美联储4月底上次会议后，10年期国债收益率已从接近1.64%降至1.5%。</blockquote> Here's a look at what economists and investors will be watching for Wednesday when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting. Fed officials will release a statement at 2pm Eastern followed by a press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m.<blockquote>以下是周三美联储结束为期两天的会议时经济学家和投资者将关注的内容。美联储官员将于东部时间下午2点发布声明，随后美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2点30分召开新闻发布会。</blockquote> Inflation is transitory<blockquote>通货膨胀是暂时的</blockquote> The Fed statement is widely expected to repeat the phrase that the pickup in inflation \"largely reflects transitory factors.\" The Fed may drive this point home in its updated economic forecasts. In March, the Fed had core PCE inflation at 2.2% in 2021, 2% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023. The 2021 forecast of core inflation is likely to rise but the Fed is expected to keep 2023 core inflation unchanged.<blockquote>人们普遍预计美联储声明将重复通胀回升“很大程度上反映了暂时性因素”这句话。美联储可能会在更新的经济预测中强调这一点。3月份，美联储预计2021年核心PCE通胀率为2.2%，2022年为2%，2023年为2.1%。2021年核心通胀预测可能会上升，但预计美联储将维持2023年核心通胀不变。</blockquote> 'Talking about talking about' tapering<blockquote>“谈论谈论”逐渐减少</blockquote> Fed officials are expected to discuss slowing down, or tapering, asset purchases, but only in a preliminary way without laying out any plans. \"We expect Chair Powell to stress that all, or almost all, participants, see tapering action as very premature,\" wrote Steve Englander, head of North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank.<blockquote>预计美联储官员将讨论放缓或缩减资产购买，但只是初步的，没有制定任何计划。渣打银行北美宏观策略主管史蒂夫·英格兰德写道：“我们预计鲍威尔主席将强调，所有或几乎所有参与者都认为缩减行动还为时过早。”</blockquote> Tolerate a rising expectation of higher rates over 2023-2024<blockquote>容忍2023-2024年利率上升的预期不断上升</blockquote> If inflation is more persistent than the Fed now believes, the central bank needs to signal it will do what it needs to do to keep inflation under control. \"In that record, the Fed will, if not encourage, at least tolerate, a rising expectation of [higher] rates over 2023 and 2024,\" said Bruce Kazman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, in an interview on Bloomberg Television.<blockquote>如果通胀比美联储现在认为的更持久，央行需要发出信号，表明它将采取必要措施来控制通胀。摩根大通首席经济学家布鲁斯·卡兹曼(Bruce Kazman)在接受彭博电视台采访时表示：“根据这一记录，美联储即使不鼓励，也至少会容忍2023年和2024年加息的预期上升。”</blockquote> Consequently, the median dot on the chart that signal's the Fed's consensus could signal the first rate hike in 2023. In March, 11 of 18 top Fed officials thought policy would be unchanged. Only four of 18 officials were projecting a rate hike in 2022.<blockquote>因此，图表上表明美联储共识的中点可能预示着2023年首次加息。3月份，18名美联储高级官员中有11人认为政策不会改变。18名官员中只有4名预计2022年加息。</blockquote> Many other economists think it is still unlikely the median projection will change from the current rate close to zero.<blockquote>许多其他经济学家认为，预测中值仍不太可能从目前接近零的利率发生变化。</blockquote> Will Powell repeat that the Fed is 'a long way' from its goals and 'some time' for substantial further progress?<blockquote>鲍威尔是否会重申美联储距离其目标“还有很长的路要走”，并且需要“一些时间”才能取得实质性的进一步进展？</blockquote> Jim O'Sullivan, thinks the Fed has to start getting away from this language, which Powell used to signal that policy would remain unchanged. \"The longer you leave it in place, the bigger deal it is when you drop it,\" he said. So he thinks Powell will no longer say that it will be \"some time\" before the economy reaches the benchmark of \"some further progress\" to allow the Fed to taper asset purchases. This won't be a signal of imminent tapering. \"It is not in the next three months -- it could happen by the end of the year. O'Sullivan thinks the Fed will show patience and not start tapering until next March.<blockquote>吉姆·奥沙利文认为，美联储必须开始摆脱这种语言，鲍威尔用这种语言表示政策将保持不变。“你把它留在原地的时间越长，当你把它扔掉时，它的影响就越大，”他说。所以他认为鲍威尔不会再说经济达到“一些进一步进展”的基准还需要“一段时间”才能允许美联储缩减资产购买。这不会是即将缩减规模的信号。“这不会在未来三个月内发生——可能会在今年年底发生。奥沙利文认为美联储将表现出耐心，直到明年3月才开始缩减规模。”</blockquote> Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote she wouldn't be shocked if Powell set out conditions for \"substantial further progress.\" This would go a long way toward removing uncertainty about when the Fed might reach the threshold, she said.<blockquote>高频经济公司首席美国经济学家鲁比拉·法鲁奇写道，如果鲍威尔为“实质性的进一步进展”设定条件，她不会感到震惊。她表示，这将大大有助于消除美联储何时可能达到门槛的不确定性。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-things-to-watch-for-when-the-fed-meets-wednesday-11623774676?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-things-to-watch-for-when-the-fed-meets-wednesday-11623774676?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143375006","content_text":"Despite the big spike in inflation, the Federal Reserve is set to signal on Wedesday that it is not going to change interest rate policy anytime soon -- at least through the end of 2022, economists say.\n\"The message this week will likely be a heavy dose of 'still a long way to go' sprinkled with concerns about upside risks to inflation,\" wrote Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.\nThe Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week against a backdrop of the consumer price index up 5% annual rate.\nThe Fed is still buying $80 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month along with keeping its benchmark rate close to zero, in order to support the economy.\nFed officials have guided the market that it won't scale back the asset purchases until it sees \"substantial further progress\" towards its unemployment target in particular as the economy recovers from the pandemic. Slowing back asset purchases would be taking the central bank's foot off the gas -- a long way from actually tapping on the brakes with higher interest rates.\nEconomists think markets have been so far surprisingly complacent about inflation. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has fallen to 1.5% from closer to 1.64% just after the Fed's last meeting in late April.\nHere's a look at what economists and investors will be watching for Wednesday when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting. Fed officials will release a statement at 2pm Eastern followed by a press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m.\nInflation is transitory\nThe Fed statement is widely expected to repeat the phrase that the pickup in inflation \"largely reflects transitory factors.\" The Fed may drive this point home in its updated economic forecasts. In March, the Fed had core PCE inflation at 2.2% in 2021, 2% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023. The 2021 forecast of core inflation is likely to rise but the Fed is expected to keep 2023 core inflation unchanged.\n'Talking about talking about' tapering\nFed officials are expected to discuss slowing down, or tapering, asset purchases, but only in a preliminary way without laying out any plans. \"We expect Chair Powell to stress that all, or almost all, participants, see tapering action as very premature,\" wrote Steve Englander, head of North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank.\nTolerate a rising expectation of higher rates over 2023-2024\nIf inflation is more persistent than the Fed now believes, the central bank needs to signal it will do what it needs to do to keep inflation under control. \"In that record, the Fed will, if not encourage, at least tolerate, a rising expectation of [higher] rates over 2023 and 2024,\" said Bruce Kazman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, in an interview on Bloomberg Television.\nConsequently, the median dot on the chart that signal's the Fed's consensus could signal the first rate hike in 2023. In March, 11 of 18 top Fed officials thought policy would be unchanged. Only four of 18 officials were projecting a rate hike in 2022.\nMany other economists think it is still unlikely the median projection will change from the current rate close to zero.\nWill Powell repeat that the Fed is 'a long way' from its goals and 'some time' for substantial further progress?\nJim O'Sullivan, thinks the Fed has to start getting away from this language, which Powell used to signal that policy would remain unchanged. \"The longer you leave it in place, the bigger deal it is when you drop it,\" he said. So he thinks Powell will no longer say that it will be \"some time\" before the economy reaches the benchmark of \"some further progress\" to allow the Fed to taper asset purchases. This won't be a signal of imminent tapering. \"It is not in the next three months -- it could happen by the end of the year. O'Sullivan thinks the Fed will show patience and not start tapering until next March.\nRubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote she wouldn't be shocked if Powell set out conditions for \"substantial further progress.\" This would go a long way toward removing uncertainty about when the Fed might reach the threshold, she said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2696,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/169607943"}