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2021-07-16

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One Bank's Non-Transitory Inflation Meter Just Exploded<blockquote>一家银行的非暂时性通胀指标刚刚爆炸</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":170398625,"tweetId":"170398625","gmtCreate":1626402890767,"gmtModify":1633927057818,"author":{"id":3573639121856550,"idStr":"3573639121856550","authorId":3573639121856550,"authorIdStr":"3573639121856550","name":"pangspurs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aee2873ae7d8332fa137abf68b7a472f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Omg</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Omg</body></html>","text":"Omg","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170398625","repostId":1122107992,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122107992","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626400291,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122107992?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 09:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"One Bank's Non-Transitory Inflation Meter Just Exploded<blockquote>一家银行的非暂时性通胀指标刚刚爆炸</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122107992","media":"zerohedge","summary":"One month ago we reported that Bank of America had released a new proprietary indicator tracking the","content":"One month ago we reported that Bank of America had released a new proprietary indicator tracking the level of transitory inflation, which incidentally was at the highest possible reading of 100.<blockquote>一个月前，我们报道了美国银行发布了一个新的专有指标来跟踪暂时性通胀水平，顺便提一下，该指标的最高读数为100。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff143ecaa5048b85057495194244af83\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Of course, since then it's only gotten worse and the June CPI report released earlier this week revealed another explosion in transitory price pressures. Used cars, new cars, lodging, and transportation services together accounted for 70bp of the 88bp increase in broader core CPI as discussed previously. As a result, core CPI surged 0.9% mom in June: these components primarily reflected the price pressures from goods shortages and the reopening. To no surprise, the BofA US transitory inflation meter (TIM) remained at 100 this month, because it simply couldn't rise any further.<blockquote>当然，自那以后情况只会变得更糟，本周早些时候发布的6月份消费者物价指数报告显示，暂时性价格压力再次爆发。如前所述，二手车、新车、住宿和交通服务合计占更广泛核心CPI上涨88个基点的70个基点。因此，6月份核心CPI环比飙升0.9%：这些组成部分主要反映了商品短缺和重新开放带来的价格压力。毫不奇怪，美国银行美国暂时性通胀指标(TIM)本月保持在100，因为它根本无法进一步上涨。</blockquote> But while the transitory strength in inflation took the spotlight, another development in the June CPI report - which we had discussedextensively before- was a strong 0.32% increase in owners’ equivalent rent (OER) which is a far stickier source of inflation and whichGoldman sees hitting 4% around the end of 2022.<blockquote>不过，尽管通胀的暂时走强引起了人们的关注，但6月份CPI报告中的另一项进展（我们之前曾广泛讨论过）是业主等值租金(OER)强劲增长0.32%，这是通胀的粘性更大的来源，高盛预计到2022年底将达到4%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29e8197cd3b3f73d48338d5b01164364\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> In other words, persistent inflation looks to be rising sharply as well.<blockquote>换句话说，持续的通胀看起来也在急剧上升。</blockquote> This, as Bank of America economist Alex Lin writes today, highlights the importance of being able to track persistent inflation while keeping transitory inflation in perspective.<blockquote>正如美国银行经济学家亚历克斯·林(Alex Lin)今天所写的那样，这凸显了能够跟踪持续通胀同时正确看待暂时性通胀的重要性。</blockquote> So to get a more complete picture of current inflation dynamics, BofA has revised its transitory inflation meter with the BofA US Persistent Inflation Meter (PIM), and here, a shock:it soared to 75 in June from 37 in May, indicating elevatedpersistent, as in non-transitory,&nbsp; inflation.<blockquote>因此，为了更全面地了解当前的通胀动态，美国银行通过美国银行美国持续通胀表（PIM）修订了其暂时性通胀表，这里令人震惊：从5月份的37飙升至6月份的75，表明持续存在的如非暂时性通货膨胀。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc907b44c17cb542b759a78f8c15f76d\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> This confirms that contrary to its best wishes, the Fed already has a major headache on its hands. Furthermore, as Deutsche Bank pointed out earlier this week,Wall Street consensus inflation expectations for 2022 are already well above 2%,which is impossible if inflation is transitory and if there is going to be a deflationary phase after the current burst in transitory inflation ends.<blockquote>这证实，与其最美好的愿望相反，美联储已经有了一个令人头疼的问题。此外，正如德意志银行本周早些时候指出的那样，华尔街对2022年的普遍通胀预期已经远高于2%，如果通胀是暂时性的，并且在当前暂时性通胀爆发结束后将出现通缩阶段，这是不可能的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92086971b86a9511afb50387980e3995\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> In other words, the Fed is again wrong and sooner or later, 10Y yields which continue to pretend that everything is fine, will face a day of very painful reckoning.<blockquote>换句话说，美联储又错了，继续假装一切都很好的10年期国债迟早将面临非常痛苦的清算日。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One Bank's Non-Transitory Inflation Meter Just Exploded<blockquote>一家银行的非暂时性通胀指标刚刚爆炸</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne Bank's Non-Transitory Inflation Meter Just Exploded<blockquote>一家银行的非暂时性通胀指标刚刚爆炸</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-16 09:51\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOne month ago we reported that Bank of America had released a new proprietary indicator tracking the level of transitory inflation, which incidentally was at the highest possible reading of 100.<blockquote>一个月前，我们报道了美国银行发布了一个新的专有指标来跟踪暂时性通胀水平，顺便提一下，该指标的最高读数为100。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff143ecaa5048b85057495194244af83\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Of course, since then it's only gotten worse and the June CPI report released earlier this week revealed another explosion in transitory price pressures. Used cars, new cars, lodging, and transportation services together accounted for 70bp of the 88bp increase in broader core CPI as discussed previously. As a result, core CPI surged 0.9% mom in June: these components primarily reflected the price pressures from goods shortages and the reopening. To no surprise, the BofA US transitory inflation meter (TIM) remained at 100 this month, because it simply couldn't rise any further.<blockquote>当然，自那以后情况只会变得更糟，本周早些时候发布的6月份消费者物价指数报告显示，暂时性价格压力再次爆发。如前所述，二手车、新车、住宿和交通服务合计占更广泛核心CPI上涨88个基点的70个基点。因此，6月份核心CPI环比飙升0.9%：这些组成部分主要反映了商品短缺和重新开放带来的价格压力。毫不奇怪，美国银行美国暂时性通胀指标(TIM)本月保持在100，因为它根本无法进一步上涨。</blockquote> But while the transitory strength in inflation took the spotlight, another development in the June CPI report - which we had discussedextensively before- was a strong 0.32% increase in owners’ equivalent rent (OER) which is a far stickier source of inflation and whichGoldman sees hitting 4% around the end of 2022.<blockquote>不过，尽管通胀的暂时走强引起了人们的关注，但6月份CPI报告中的另一项进展（我们之前曾广泛讨论过）是业主等值租金(OER)强劲增长0.32%，这是通胀的粘性更大的来源，高盛预计到2022年底将达到4%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29e8197cd3b3f73d48338d5b01164364\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> In other words, persistent inflation looks to be rising sharply as well.<blockquote>换句话说，持续的通胀看起来也在急剧上升。</blockquote> This, as Bank of America economist Alex Lin writes today, highlights the importance of being able to track persistent inflation while keeping transitory inflation in perspective.<blockquote>正如美国银行经济学家亚历克斯·林(Alex Lin)今天所写的那样，这凸显了能够跟踪持续通胀同时正确看待暂时性通胀的重要性。</blockquote> So to get a more complete picture of current inflation dynamics, BofA has revised its transitory inflation meter with the BofA US Persistent Inflation Meter (PIM), and here, a shock:it soared to 75 in June from 37 in May, indicating elevatedpersistent, as in non-transitory,&nbsp; inflation.<blockquote>因此，为了更全面地了解当前的通胀动态，美国银行通过美国银行美国持续通胀表（PIM）修订了其暂时性通胀表，这里令人震惊：从5月份的37飙升至6月份的75，表明持续存在的如非暂时性通货膨胀。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc907b44c17cb542b759a78f8c15f76d\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> This confirms that contrary to its best wishes, the Fed already has a major headache on its hands. Furthermore, as Deutsche Bank pointed out earlier this week,Wall Street consensus inflation expectations for 2022 are already well above 2%,which is impossible if inflation is transitory and if there is going to be a deflationary phase after the current burst in transitory inflation ends.<blockquote>这证实，与其最美好的愿望相反，美联储已经有了一个令人头疼的问题。此外，正如德意志银行本周早些时候指出的那样，华尔街对2022年的普遍通胀预期已经远高于2%，如果通胀是暂时性的，并且在当前暂时性通胀爆发结束后将出现通缩阶段，这是不可能的。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92086971b86a9511afb50387980e3995\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> In other words, the Fed is again wrong and sooner or later, 10Y yields which continue to pretend that everything is fine, will face a day of very painful reckoning.<blockquote>换句话说，美联储又错了，继续假装一切都很好的10年期国债迟早将面临非常痛苦的清算日。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/one-banks-non-transitory-inflation-meter-just-exploded\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","BAC":"美国银行","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/one-banks-non-transitory-inflation-meter-just-exploded","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122107992","content_text":"One month ago we reported that Bank of America had released a new proprietary indicator tracking the level of transitory inflation, which incidentally was at the highest possible reading of 100.\n\nOf course, since then it's only gotten worse and the June CPI report released earlier this week revealed another explosion in transitory price pressures. Used cars, new cars, lodging, and transportation services together accounted for 70bp of the 88bp increase in broader core CPI as discussed previously. As a result, core CPI surged 0.9% mom in June: these components primarily reflected the price pressures from goods shortages and the reopening. To no surprise, the BofA US transitory inflation meter (TIM) remained at 100 this month, because it simply couldn't rise any further.\nBut while the transitory strength in inflation took the spotlight, another development in the June CPI report - which we had discussedextensively before- was a strong 0.32% increase in owners’ equivalent rent (OER) which is a far stickier source of inflation and whichGoldman sees hitting 4% around the end of 2022.\n\nIn other words, persistent inflation looks to be rising sharply as well.\nThis, as Bank of America economist Alex Lin writes today, highlights the importance of being able to track persistent inflation while keeping transitory inflation in perspective.\nSo to get a more complete picture of current inflation dynamics, BofA has revised its transitory inflation meter with the BofA US Persistent Inflation Meter (PIM), and here, a shock:it soared to 75 in June from 37 in May, indicating elevatedpersistent, as in non-transitory,  inflation.\n\nThis confirms that contrary to its best wishes, the Fed already has a major headache on its hands. Furthermore, as Deutsche Bank pointed out earlier this week,Wall Street consensus inflation expectations for 2022 are already well above 2%,which is impossible if inflation is transitory and if there is going to be a deflationary phase after the current burst in transitory inflation ends.\n\nIn other words, the Fed is again wrong and sooner or later, 10Y yields which continue to pretend that everything is fine, will face a day of very painful reckoning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"BAC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1479,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/170398625"}