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2021-07-19
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What happened the last time the economy emerged from a pandemic?<blockquote>上一次经济走出疫情时发生了什么？</blockquote>
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Retirees should continue betting that inflation’s recent spike will be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>通胀飙升是否是暂时的历史视角。退休人员应该继续押注近期通胀飙升将是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> I concede that this is getting harder to do, however. I first made this argument two months ago in response to the report that April’s Consumer Price Index’s 12-month rate of change was the highest in 13 years. Since then the CPI has risen even more, and its latest 12-month rate of change is now higher than it was then.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我承认这越来越难做到。两个月前，我在回应有关4月份消费者物价指数12个月变化率为13年来最高的报道时首次提出这一论点。此后，CPI涨幅更大，最近12个月的变化率现在高于当时。</blockquote></p><p> For this column I’m adding an additional perspective to the arguments I advanced then. As far as I can tell, it hasn’t been included in the myriad discussions that have taken place up until now.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇专栏文章中，我为我当时提出的论点增加了一个额外的视角。据我所知，到目前为止，它还没有被包括在无数的讨论中。</blockquote></p><p> This additional perspective comes from analyzing how inflation responded a century ago when the Spanish-flu pandemic came to an end. This history is relevant, since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this week argued that inflation has spiked upward because of “production bottlenecks” and “supply constraints” caused by the economy opening up after the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>这个额外的视角来自于分析一个世纪前西班牙流感大流行结束时通货膨胀的反应。这段历史是相关的，因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本周认为，由于Covid-19大流行封锁后经济开放造成的“生产瓶颈”和“供应限制”，通胀飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The Spanish Flu pandemic a century ago provides the ideal laboratory for testing Powell’s argument. Did inflation spike upward as the economy emerged from that pandemic? And, if so, was it merely transitory?</p><p><blockquote>一个世纪前的西班牙流感大流行为检验鲍威尔的论点提供了理想的实验室。随着经济走出疫情，通胀是否飙升？如果是这样，这仅仅是暂时的吗？</blockquote></p><p> The accompanying chart provides an answer. It plots the Consumer Price Index from 1917 (before the pandemic started) until 1923 (well after its end). Sure enough, the CPI spiked upward after that pandemic’s third and final wave came to an end. After spiking, however, the CPI’s 12-month rate of change plunged. By mid-1921, in fact, there was double-digit deflation, when the CPI was 15.8% lower than where it stood in mid-1920.</p><p><blockquote>随附的图表提供了答案。它绘制了从1917年（疫情开始前）到1923年（疫情结束后很久）的消费者价格指数。果然，在疫情的第三波也是最后一波结束后，消费者物价指数飙升。然而，在飙升后，CPI的12个月变化率大幅下降。事实上，到1921年中期，出现了两位数的通货紧缩，当时的CPI比1920年中期低了15.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01c46dbd12cff4778f6ee31e1269bdf\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"942\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> To be sure, there was a lot else going on in the world in the early 1920s, which is why history at best only rhymes rather than repeats itself exactly. World War I had just come to an end, for example, and the redirection of the economy from war production to consumer goods no doubt exacerbated supply shortages and bottlenecks.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，20世纪20年代初的世界上还有很多其他的事情发生，这就是为什么历史充其量只是押韵，而不是完全重复自己。例如，第一次世界大战刚刚结束，经济从战争生产转向消费品无疑加剧了供应短缺和瓶颈。</blockquote></p><p> But the overall pattern is clear, and it supports the current “inflation is transitory” argument. In fact, the century-ago experience suggests we might want to be worried about economic weakness, if not an outright recession, in the next year or two.</p><p><blockquote>但总体格局清晰，支持当前“通胀是暂时性的”论调。事实上，一个世纪前的经验表明，我们可能需要担心未来一两年的经济疲软，如果不是彻底的衰退的话。</blockquote></p><p> This perhaps helps to explain why interest rates have come down even as the CPI’s 12-month rate of change has risen. The Treasury’s 10-year yield, for example, is currently 0.4 of a percentage point lower than where it stood in March—even though the CPI’s 12-month rate of change over this same period has risen by 2.6 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>这或许有助于解释为什么尽管CPI的12个月变化率上升，但利率却下降了。例如，10年期国债收益率目前比3月份低0.4个百分点，尽管同期CPI的12个月变化率上升了2.6个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> In an early June column, I mentioned an inflation forecasting model maintained by the Cleveland Federal Reserve that, according to my tracking, has one of the better historical track records. Its latest forecast, updated after this week’s unexpectedly large jump in the CPI, is that inflation over the coming decade will average 1.61% annualized. That’s well below the Fed’s widely-advertised 2% inflation target and well below the CPI’s latest 12-month change of 5.4%.</p><p><blockquote>在六月初的专栏中，我提到了克利夫兰联储维护的通胀预测模型，根据我的跟踪，该模型拥有较好的历史记录之一。在本周CPI意外大幅上涨后，其最新预测是，未来十年的年化通胀率平均为1.61%。这远低于美联储广泛宣传的2%通胀目标，也远低于CPI最新12个月变化5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, many monetary experts and academic researchers disagree, insisting that inflation’s recent spike is more than just transitory. So there are no guarantees. Still, I think it is relevant that the last time our economy emerged from a pandemic, inflation spiked only temporarily and then plunged.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，许多货币专家和学术研究人员不同意这一观点，他们坚称近期通胀飙升不仅仅是暂时的。所以没有保证。尽管如此，我认为上次我们的经济摆脱疫情时，通胀只是暂时飙升，然后暴跌，这是相关的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What happened the last time the economy emerged from a pandemic?<blockquote>上一次经济走出疫情时发生了什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat happened the last time the economy emerged from a pandemic?<blockquote>上一次经济走出疫情时发生了什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 21:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> A historical perspective on whether inflation’s spike is temporary. Retirees should continue betting that inflation’s recent spike will be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>通胀飙升是否是暂时的历史视角。退休人员应该继续押注近期通胀飙升将是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> I concede that this is getting harder to do, however. I first made this argument two months ago in response to the report that April’s Consumer Price Index’s 12-month rate of change was the highest in 13 years. Since then the CPI has risen even more, and its latest 12-month rate of change is now higher than it was then.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我承认这越来越难做到。两个月前，我在回应有关4月份消费者物价指数12个月变化率为13年来最高的报道时首次提出这一论点。此后，CPI涨幅更大，最近12个月的变化率现在高于当时。</blockquote></p><p> For this column I’m adding an additional perspective to the arguments I advanced then. As far as I can tell, it hasn’t been included in the myriad discussions that have taken place up until now.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇专栏文章中，我为我当时提出的论点增加了一个额外的视角。据我所知，到目前为止，它还没有被包括在无数的讨论中。</blockquote></p><p> This additional perspective comes from analyzing how inflation responded a century ago when the Spanish-flu pandemic came to an end. This history is relevant, since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this week argued that inflation has spiked upward because of “production bottlenecks” and “supply constraints” caused by the economy opening up after the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>这个额外的视角来自于分析一个世纪前西班牙流感大流行结束时通货膨胀的反应。这段历史是相关的，因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔本周认为，由于Covid-19大流行封锁后经济开放造成的“生产瓶颈”和“供应限制”，通胀飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The Spanish Flu pandemic a century ago provides the ideal laboratory for testing Powell’s argument. Did inflation spike upward as the economy emerged from that pandemic? And, if so, was it merely transitory?</p><p><blockquote>一个世纪前的西班牙流感大流行为检验鲍威尔的论点提供了理想的实验室。随着经济走出疫情，通胀是否飙升？如果是这样，这仅仅是暂时的吗？</blockquote></p><p> The accompanying chart provides an answer. It plots the Consumer Price Index from 1917 (before the pandemic started) until 1923 (well after its end). Sure enough, the CPI spiked upward after that pandemic’s third and final wave came to an end. After spiking, however, the CPI’s 12-month rate of change plunged. By mid-1921, in fact, there was double-digit deflation, when the CPI was 15.8% lower than where it stood in mid-1920.</p><p><blockquote>随附的图表提供了答案。它绘制了从1917年（疫情开始前）到1923年（疫情结束后很久）的消费者价格指数。果然，在疫情的第三波也是最后一波结束后，消费者物价指数飙升。然而，在飙升后，CPI的12个月变化率大幅下降。事实上，到1921年中期，出现了两位数的通货紧缩，当时的CPI比1920年中期低了15.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01c46dbd12cff4778f6ee31e1269bdf\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"942\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> To be sure, there was a lot else going on in the world in the early 1920s, which is why history at best only rhymes rather than repeats itself exactly. World War I had just come to an end, for example, and the redirection of the economy from war production to consumer goods no doubt exacerbated supply shortages and bottlenecks.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，20世纪20年代初的世界上还有很多其他的事情发生，这就是为什么历史充其量只是押韵，而不是完全重复自己。例如，第一次世界大战刚刚结束，经济从战争生产转向消费品无疑加剧了供应短缺和瓶颈。</blockquote></p><p> But the overall pattern is clear, and it supports the current “inflation is transitory” argument. In fact, the century-ago experience suggests we might want to be worried about economic weakness, if not an outright recession, in the next year or two.</p><p><blockquote>但总体格局清晰，支持当前“通胀是暂时性的”论调。事实上，一个世纪前的经验表明，我们可能需要担心未来一两年的经济疲软，如果不是彻底的衰退的话。</blockquote></p><p> This perhaps helps to explain why interest rates have come down even as the CPI’s 12-month rate of change has risen. The Treasury’s 10-year yield, for example, is currently 0.4 of a percentage point lower than where it stood in March—even though the CPI’s 12-month rate of change over this same period has risen by 2.6 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>这或许有助于解释为什么尽管CPI的12个月变化率上升，但利率却下降了。例如，10年期国债收益率目前比3月份低0.4个百分点，尽管同期CPI的12个月变化率上升了2.6个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> In an early June column, I mentioned an inflation forecasting model maintained by the Cleveland Federal Reserve that, according to my tracking, has one of the better historical track records. Its latest forecast, updated after this week’s unexpectedly large jump in the CPI, is that inflation over the coming decade will average 1.61% annualized. That’s well below the Fed’s widely-advertised 2% inflation target and well below the CPI’s latest 12-month change of 5.4%.</p><p><blockquote>在六月初的专栏中，我提到了克利夫兰联储维护的通胀预测模型，根据我的跟踪，该模型拥有较好的历史记录之一。在本周CPI意外大幅上涨后，其最新预测是，未来十年的年化通胀率平均为1.61%。这远低于美联储广泛宣传的2%通胀目标，也远低于CPI最新12个月变化5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, many monetary experts and academic researchers disagree, insisting that inflation’s recent spike is more than just transitory. So there are no guarantees. Still, I think it is relevant that the last time our economy emerged from a pandemic, inflation spiked only temporarily and then plunged.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，许多货币专家和学术研究人员不同意这一观点，他们坚称近期通胀飙升不仅仅是暂时的。所以没有保证。尽管如此，我认为上次我们的经济摆脱疫情时，通胀只是暂时飙升，然后暴跌，这是相关的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-happened-the-last-time-the-economy-emerged-from-a-pandemic-11626453948?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-happened-the-last-time-the-economy-emerged-from-a-pandemic-11626453948?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187372175","content_text":"A historical perspective on whether inflation’s spike is temporary.\n\nRetirees should continue betting that inflation’s recent spike will be transitory.\nI concede that this is getting harder to do, however. I first made this argument two months ago in response to the report that April’s Consumer Price Index’s 12-month rate of change was the highest in 13 years. Since then the CPI has risen even more, and its latest 12-month rate of change is now higher than it was then.\nFor this column I’m adding an additional perspective to the arguments I advanced then. As far as I can tell, it hasn’t been included in the myriad discussions that have taken place up until now.\nThis additional perspective comes from analyzing how inflation responded a century ago when the Spanish-flu pandemic came to an end. This history is relevant, since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this week argued that inflation has spiked upward because of “production bottlenecks” and “supply constraints” caused by the economy opening up after the Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns.\nThe Spanish Flu pandemic a century ago provides the ideal laboratory for testing Powell’s argument. Did inflation spike upward as the economy emerged from that pandemic? And, if so, was it merely transitory?\nThe accompanying chart provides an answer. It plots the Consumer Price Index from 1917 (before the pandemic started) until 1923 (well after its end). Sure enough, the CPI spiked upward after that pandemic’s third and final wave came to an end. After spiking, however, the CPI’s 12-month rate of change plunged. By mid-1921, in fact, there was double-digit deflation, when the CPI was 15.8% lower than where it stood in mid-1920.\n\nTo be sure, there was a lot else going on in the world in the early 1920s, which is why history at best only rhymes rather than repeats itself exactly. World War I had just come to an end, for example, and the redirection of the economy from war production to consumer goods no doubt exacerbated supply shortages and bottlenecks.\nBut the overall pattern is clear, and it supports the current “inflation is transitory” argument. In fact, the century-ago experience suggests we might want to be worried about economic weakness, if not an outright recession, in the next year or two.\nThis perhaps helps to explain why interest rates have come down even as the CPI’s 12-month rate of change has risen. The Treasury’s 10-year yield, for example, is currently 0.4 of a percentage point lower than where it stood in March—even though the CPI’s 12-month rate of change over this same period has risen by 2.6 percentage points.\nIn an early June column, I mentioned an inflation forecasting model maintained by the Cleveland Federal Reserve that, according to my tracking, has one of the better historical track records. Its latest forecast, updated after this week’s unexpectedly large jump in the CPI, is that inflation over the coming decade will average 1.61% annualized. That’s well below the Fed’s widely-advertised 2% inflation target and well below the CPI’s latest 12-month change of 5.4%.\nTo be sure, many monetary experts and academic researchers disagree, insisting that inflation’s recent spike is more than just transitory. So there are no guarantees. Still, I think it is relevant that the last time our economy emerged from a pandemic, inflation spiked only temporarily and then plunged.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/171901295"}
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