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$新东方(EDU)$中概股教育请不要抄底！

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约翰肖
2021-07-23
约翰肖
诚信想问下为什么
- 约翰肖回复童蒙:
  谢谢指点，受益匪浅
- 童蒙:
  近年来k12成为新东方营收的主引擎，占生源总户数的90%以上，而海外培训人员有逐年下滑的趋势。因线下成本大，毛利率低，想业绩好看，只能选择扩大规模，对外尽量拉用户数，对内尽量的压榨老师，导致教师数量上去了质量却跟不上，内部管理混乱不堪。对拉用户也是各种忽悠，前段时间爆出103个老师，76位教龄造假被点名的事情。一旦失去k12市场，跌去90%也是股价真实的反应。但不排除新业务转型成为第二个得到。
- 约翰肖回复童蒙:
  但其实我感觉他有点跌的超过预期了，有点恐慌性抛售的意思，您说的很对，国家政策很大程度上影响了校外培训行业。但我个人看来，新东方相当大的份额是在做成人英语培训以及出国中介，雅思培训，gre辅导。这些科目的培训的话影响可能会比高途好未来之类的要稍微强一点吧，现在暴跌的原因我觉得可能是市场预期下降以及恐慌性杀跌。短期其实我能看到4块以上的
- 童蒙:
  在线教育已经跟国家政策相反了，看不到前景，业绩肯定大受影响，市场变窄，已是过时的产物，未来大概率不温不火火

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