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2021-07-21

Oh no…

Netflix Slides After Subscriber Guidance Misses Estimates<blockquote>订户指引未达预期后Netflix股价下滑</blockquote>

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This reversedtwo qu","content":"Recent earnings reports from streaming giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> have been a mixed bag: the stock tumbled three quarters ago when the company reported earnings for its first full \"post Corona\" quarter and warned that\"growth is slowing\",before againplunging three quarters agowhen the company reported a huge miss in both EPS and new subs, which at 2.2 million was tied for the worst quarter in the past five years, while also reporting a worse than expected outlook for the current quarter. This reversedtwo quarters agowhen Netflix reported a blowout subscriber beat and projected it would soon be cash flow positive, sending its stock soaring to an all time high - if only briefly before again reversing and then tumblinglast quarterwhen Netflix again disappointed when it reported a huge subscriber miss and giving dismal guidance.<blockquote>流媒体巨头最近的收益报告<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>情况好坏参半：三个季度前，当该公司公布第一个完整的“后电晕”季度收益时，该股暴跌，并警告称“增长放缓”，在三个季度前再次暴跌之前，该公司报告每股收益和新潜艇均大幅下滑，为220万辆，并列过去五年来最糟糕的季度，同时还报告了本季度的前景差于预期。两个季度前，这种情况发生了逆转，当时Netflix报告订户数量井喷，并预计很快就会实现正现金流，导致其股价飙升至历史新高——即使只是短暂的，然后再次逆转，然后暴跌。上个季度，Netflix报告订户数量巨大，再次感到失望。错过并给出令人沮丧的指导。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fe65be48d8a2ae27f38c5f2f476d77\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which brings us to today, when investors are on edge today to find out not whether the company would beat or miss expectations, but rather if the slowdown CEO Reed Hastings warned about is for real and has pulled forward even more subscribers due to covid? After all, Netflix has been warning for months that growth would slow in 2021 compared to the phenomenal signup rate at the start of the pandemic lockdown last year. And yes, brace for a huge base effect hit:in the second quarter of 2020, the service added 10 million new customers, second only to the 15.77 million it added in the record first quarter of 2020.<blockquote>这就把我们带到了今天，投资者今天紧张地想知道的不是该公司是否会超出或低于预期，而是首席执行官里德·黑斯廷斯警告的经济放缓是否是真的，并且由于新冠疫情而吸引了更多的订户？毕竟，Netflix几个月来一直警告称，与去年大流行封锁开始时惊人的注册率相比，2021年的增长将放缓。是的，准备好迎接巨大的基础效应吧：2020年第二季度，该服务新增客户1000万，仅次于创纪录的2020年第一季度新增的1577万。</blockquote> To be sure, despite a series of hit or miss earnings, the company has been riding a wave of optimism, its stock soaring in early 2021. Still, after hitting to a record high in January, the stock has traded rangbeound, unable to break out to a new high, for the past seven months. And while there’s no doubt that viewership has surged during the Covid-19 lockdowns in the U.S. and much of the world, there are complications: the virus has brought TV and film production to a halt, a situation that may only get more dire for Netflix as the months wear on. But the biggest question remainshow many future subs has covid brought to the present, and tied to that - will the panic over the Delta strain lead to another mini burst in subscribers in the coming quater(s)?<blockquote>可以肯定的是，尽管盈利出现了一系列时好时坏的情况，但该公司一直在乘着乐观情绪的浪潮，其股价在2021年初飙升。尽管如此，在一月份创下历史新高后，该股在过去七个月里一直徘徊不前，未能突破新高。尽管毫无疑问，在美国和世界大部分地区的Covid-19封锁期间，收视率激增，但也存在复杂情况：病毒导致电视和电影制作停止，随着时间的推移，这种情况对Netflix来说可能只会变得更加可怕。但最大的问题依然存在covid为现在带来了多少未来的subs，与此相关的是，对Delta菌株的恐慌会导致未来几个季度用户的另一次小爆发吗？</blockquote> Indicatively, consensus expects just 1.12 million new subscribers to be added in the second quarter, just above the company's own projection of 1 million new subs. Revenue are expected to come in at $7.32 billion, up from $7.16 billion last quarter, and resulting in EPS of $3.36, down slightly from last quarter's $3.75. This, as streaming video remains on a hot streak since the pandemic struck.<blockquote>值得注意的是，市场普遍预计第二季度仅新增112万新用户，略高于该公司自己预测的100万新用户。收入预计为73.2亿美元，高于上季度的71.6亿美元，每股收益为3.36美元，略低于上季度的3.75美元。这是因为自疫情袭击以来，流媒体视频一直保持火爆势头。</blockquote> Previewing the quarterly result, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Geetha Ranganathan and Amine Bensaid cautioned that Netflix’s massive 2020 is leading to more muted subscriber gains this year: \"Netflix will continue to feel the aftereffects of a super-charged 1H20, with a massive pull-forward of demand prompting tempered expectations for 1 million additions in 2Q, its lowest quarterly level since 4Q11. The pull-forward may have also been amplified by price increases and pent-up demand for outdoor entertainment leading to uncertainty in 3Q guidance, though the return of several high-profile titles (‘Witcher,’ ‘Cobra Kai,’ ‘You’ and ‘Money Heist’) will be a clear catalyst for normalizing subscriber gains from 4Q and into 2022.\"<blockquote>彭博资讯(Bloomberg Intelligence)分析师Geetha Ranganathan和Amine Bensaid在预览季度业绩时警告称，Netflix 2020年的大规模增长将导致今年的订户增长更加疲软：Netflix, Inc.将继续感受到1H20超负荷的后遗症，需求将大幅拉动第二季度新增100万人的预期，这是自2011年第四季度以来的最低季度水平。价格上涨和户外娱乐需求被压抑，导致第三季度指引的不确定性，尽管几部备受瞩目的游戏（《巫师》、《眼镜蛇凯》、《你》和《金钱大劫案》）的回归将成为第四季度至2022年订户增长正常化的明显催化剂。”</blockquote> LightShed Partners media analyst Rich Greenfield published what he sees as the key questions Netflix investors should ask management after its earnings report. Among them are when Netflix’s subscriber growth will normalize, whether India can be a meaningful driver of profitability, and where the company sees opportunities in video games. Greenfield asks: “Is the goal to leverage IP you create for TV/film or create original video game IP that can be leveraged into TV/film production?”<blockquote>LightShed Partners媒体分析师Rich Greenfield发表了他认为Netflix投资者在财报发布后应该向管理层提出的关键问题。其中包括Netflix的用户增长何时会正常化，印度是否可以成为盈利的有意义的驱动力，以及该公司在视频游戏领域看到了哪些机会。格林菲尔德问道：“目标是利用你为电视/电影创作的IP，还是创造可以用于电视/电影制作的原创视频游戏IP？”</blockquote> Another thing to watch out for is how a slowdown in production last year is affecting the service. The filming of new shows and movies basically came to a standstill in early 2020, which curbed output in the following months.<blockquote>另一件需要注意的事情是去年生产放缓如何影响服务。新节目和电影的拍摄在2020年初基本陷入停滞，这抑制了随后几个月的产量。</blockquote> * * *<blockquote>***</blockquote> So with all that in mind, was <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> the quarter that would finally unleash another repricing higher for Netflix stock?Alas, it would again not be this time because despite beating on the top line, and adding more subscribers than expected, the company missed on EPS andagainreported another dismal quarterly guidance which came in well below expectations (full letter to shareholders).<blockquote>考虑到这一点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>这个季度最终会引发Netflix股票的另一次重新定价？唉，这次又不会了，因为尽管营收超出预期，订户数量也超出预期，但该公司未能实现每股收益和再一次报告了另一份惨淡的季度指引，远低于预期（致股东的完整信）。</blockquote> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a>, the good news:<blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>好消息是：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Q2 revenue $7.34B,beatingEst. $7.32B</li> <li>Q2 Streaming Paid Net Change +1.54M,beatingEst. +1.12M</li> <li>Operating margin of 25.2% came in on top of estiamtes of 25.2%</li> </ul> And then the bad news:<blockquote><ul><li>第二季度收入$7.34 B，殴打估计数。$7.32 B</li><li>第二季度流媒体付费净变化+154万，殴打估计数。+1.12 m</li><li>营业利润率为25.2%，高于预期的25.2%</li></ul>然后是坏消息：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Q2 EPS $2.97 missing consensus Est. $3.14</li> <li>Company sees Q3 Streaming Paid Net Change +3.50M, far below the Wall Street estimate of +5.86M</li> </ul> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> as bad,the company reported its first decline in US/Canada paid subscribers, which shrank by 430K to 73.95MM. This was the first time NFLX lost customers domestically since 2019.<blockquote><ul><li>第二季度每股收益2.97美元，未达到共识预期。$3.14</li><li>公司预计第三季度流媒体付费净变化+350万，远低于华尔街预期的+586万</li></ul><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>同样糟糕，该公司报告称，美国/加拿大付费用户首次下降，减少43万至7395万。这是NFLX自2019年以来首次在国内失去客户。</blockquote> In other words, while q2 revenue rose 19% and operating income rose 36%,shares tumbled after its third-quarter subscriber forecast missed estimates.<blockquote>也就是说，在q2营收增长19%、营业收入增长36%的同时，第三季度订户预测未达到预期后，股价暴跌。</blockquote> Here is the full breakdown of Q2 subs which saw a drop in US/Canada paid subs:<blockquote>以下是第二季度美国/加拿大付费潜艇数量下降的潜艇的完整明细：</blockquote> <ul> <li>UCAN streaming paid net change -430,000, estimate +52,190</li> <li>EMEA streaming paid net change +190,000, estimate +429,335</li> <li>LATAM streaming paid net change +760,000, estimate +128,719</li> <li>APAC streaming paid net change +1.02 million, estimate +524,900</li> <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSS\">Total</a> Streaming paid net change +1.54 million, estimate +1.12 million (Bloomberg Consensus)</li> </ul> And visually:<blockquote><ul><li>UCAN streaming付费净变化-430,000，估计+52,190</li><li>EMEA流媒体付费净变化+190,000，预估+429,335</li><li>LATAM streaming付费净变化+760,000，预估+128,719</li><li>亚太地区流媒体付费净变化+102万，预估+524,900</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSS\">总的</a>流媒体付费净变化+154万，预估+112万（彭博共识）</li></ul>视觉上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85f0ab057ffe490df75bde4db70226d4\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"842\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commenting on the Q2 results, NFLX said that revenue growth was driven by an 11% increase in average paid streaming memberships and 8% growth in average revenue per membership (ARM). “COVID has created some lumpiness in our membership growth (higher growth in 2020, slower growth this year), which is working its way through.”<blockquote>NFLX在评论第二季度业绩时表示，收入增长是由平均付费流媒体会员数量增长11%和平均每位会员收入(ARM)增长8%推动的。“新冠疫情给我们的会员增长带来了一些波动（2020年增长较高，今年增长较慢），但这种情况正在得到解决。”</blockquote> A more detailed breakdown of why the company continues to see \"choppiness\" in its earnings:<blockquote>更详细地分析了该公司盈利持续“波动”的原因：</blockquote> \"The pandemic has created unusual choppiness in our growth and distorts year-over-year comparisons as acquisition and engagement per member household spiked in the early months of COVID. In Q2’21, our engagement per member household was, as expected, down vs. those unprecedented levels but was still up 17% compared with a more comparable Q2’19. Similarly, retention continues to be strong and better than pre-COVID Q2’19 levels, even as average revenue per membership has grown 8% over this two-year period, demonstrating how much our members value Netflix and that as we improve our service we can charge a bit more. \" NFLX also said that it added 1.5m paid memberships in Q2, \"slightly ahead of our 1.0m guidance forecast\"with the APAC region representing about two-thirds of global paid net adds in the quarter. Meanwhile, as noted above,Q2 paid memberships in the UCAN region were down sequentially (-0.4m paid net adds):\"We believe our large membership base in UCAN coupled with a seasonally smaller quarter for acquisition is the main reason for this dynamic. This is similar to what we experienced in Q2’19 when our UCAN paid net adds were -0.1m; since then we’ve added nearly 7.5m paid net adds in UCAN\"<blockquote>“疫情给我们的增长带来了异常波动，并扭曲了同比比较，因为在新冠疫情爆发的最初几个月，每个成员家庭的收购和参与度激增。在21年第二季度，我们每个成员家庭的参与度正如预期的那样有所下降。这些前所未有的水平，但与更具可比性的2019年第二季度相比仍增长了17%。同样，尽管每位会员的平均收入在这两年期间增长了8%，但保留率仍然强劲，并且好于2019年第二季度新冠疫情爆发前的水平，这表明我们的会员对Netflix的重视程度以及我们改进我们的服务我们可以多收一点钱。”NFLX还表示，第二季度付费会员数量增加了150万，“略高于我们100万的指导预测”亚太地区约占本季度全球付费净增额的三分之二同时，如上所述，UCAN地区第二季度付费会员数量环比下降（付费净增-40万）：\"我们认为，我们在UCAN的庞大会员基础加上季节性较小的季度收购是这种动态的主要原因。这与我们在2019年第二季度经历的情况类似，当时我们的UCAN付费净增额为-0.1 M；从那时起，我们在UCAN中增加了近750万付费净添加量”</blockquote> This means that the covid pandemic in 2020 pulled forward so many subs that 2021 is shaping up to be the wirst year since at least 2016.<blockquote>这意味着2020年的covid疫情号推进了如此多的潜艇，以至于2021年将成为至少自2016年以来的第一年。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1a78edf8126b85753fd3218713aba96\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Understandably, now that companies are comping to 2019 not to 2020 (for the dismal base effect), Netflix is urging investors to compare this year to 2019 and not to the same quarter a year ago (when the pandemic boosted subscriber growth). Oddly the company had no problem comparing 2020 to 2019 when the numbers were in its favor, but we digress... The company points out that user engagement per member household was down in the second quarter compared with “those unprecedented levels” of 2020, but it was up 17% “compared with a more comparable Q2’19.”<blockquote>可以理解的是，现在公司正在与2019年而不是2020年竞争（由于惨淡的基数效应），Netflix敦促投资者将今年与2019年进行比较，而不是与一年前的同一季度（当时大流行促进了用户增长）进行比较。奇怪的是，当数字对其有利时，该公司在比较2020年和2019年时没有问题，但我们跑题了...该公司指出，与2020年“前所未有的水平”相比，第二季度每个成员家庭的用户参与度有所下降，但“与更具可比性的2019年第二季度相比”增长了17%。</blockquote> Perhaps in an attempt to divert attention from (lack of) subscriber growth, Netflix said it was making good on its promise back in 2016 to steadily grow its operating margin. The streaming giant is targeting a 20% operating margin for 2021.<blockquote>或许是为了转移人们对（缺乏）用户增长的注意力，Netflix表示，它正在兑现2016年的承诺，稳步提高营业利润率。这家流媒体巨头的目标是2021年营业利润率达到20%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f26d1f9fee9dc38cc58bff5bdc43c73\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Some more details here:<blockquote>更多详情请点击此处：</blockquote> “Assuming we achieve our margin target this year, we will have quintupled our operating margin in the last five years and are tracking ahead of this average annual three percentage point pace.. .. With revenue and margin both increasing, our operating profit dollars have risen dramatically as well (even as we have been investing heavily), from about $100 million per quarter in 2016 to nearly $2 billion per quarter so far in 2021. But while shareholders may excuse the decline in US subs, they were not happy with the company's overall guidance,where it now sees just 3.5 million new subs in Q3, far below the 5.86 million expected.<blockquote>“假设我们今年实现利润率目标，我们的营业利润率将在过去五年中增长五倍，并且领先于年均三个百分点的速度。..随着收入和利润率的增长，我们的营业利润也大幅增长（尽管我们一直在大力投资），从2016年的每季度约1亿美元增加到2021年迄今为止的每季度近20亿美元。但是，尽管股东可能会原谅美国潜艇的下降，但他们对公司的整体指导并不满意，目前第三季度新增潜艇数量仅为350万艘，远低于预期的586万艘。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23205a0bb2f7fde61b3ef2da7b7a56bb\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">* * *<blockquote>***</blockquote> Looking at its content slate, Netflix said it would be light in the first half due to Covid. The company is now playing catch-up, with spending on new TV shows and movies up 41% to $8 billion in the first half. The company is targeting $12 billion in content spending for the year, a 12% bump, to wit:<blockquote>从其内容清单来看，Netflix表示，由于新冠疫情，上半年的内容将会清淡。该公司现在正在迎头赶上，上半年在新电视节目和电影上的支出增长了41%，达到80亿美元。该公司今年的内容支出目标为120亿美元，增长12%，即：</blockquote> Through the first half of 2021 we’ve already spent $8 billion in cash on content (up 41% yr-over-yr and 1.4x our content amortization) and we expect content amortization to be around $12 billion for the full year (+12% year over year). Our Q3 slate will include new seasons of fan favorites La Casa de Papel (aka Money Heist), Sex Education, Virgin River and Never Have I Ever as well as live action films including Sweet Girl (starring Jason Momoa), Kissing Booth 3, and Kate (starring Mary Elizabeth Winstead) and the animated feature film Vivo, featuring all-new songs from Lin-Manuel Miranda. Netflix offers shared some more details on its upcoming entrance into the gaming arena:<blockquote>截至2021年上半年，我们已在内容上花费了80亿美元现金（同比增长41%，内容摊销是1.4倍）我们预计全年内容摊销约为120亿美元（同比增长12%）。我们的第三季度名单将包括粉丝最爱的《La Casa de Papel》（又名《金钱大劫案》）、《性教育》、《处女河》和《从未有过我》的新一季，以及真人电影，包括《甜蜜的女孩》（由杰森·莫玛主演）、《接吻亭3》和《凯特》（由玛丽·伊丽莎白·温斯蒂德主演）和动画故事片《Vivo》，其中收录了林·曼努尔·米兰达的全新歌曲。Netflix offers分享了有关其即将进入游戏领域的更多细节：</blockquote> “We’re also in the early stages of further expanding into games, building on our earlier efforts around interactivity (e.g., Black Mirror Bandersnatch) and our Stranger Things games. We view gaming as another new content category for us, similar to our expansion into original films, animation and unscripted TV. Games will be included in members’ Netflix subscription at no additional cost, similar to films and series . Initially, we’ll be primarily focused on games for mobile devices. We’re excited as ever about our movies and TV series offering and we expect a long runway of increasing investment and growth across all of our existing content categories, but since we are nearly a decade into our push into original programming, we think the time is right to learn more about how our members value games.” In its cursory overview of the competitive landscape, Netflix pointed out mergers like WarnerMedia/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DISCA\">Discovery</a>, saying they “don’t believe this consolidation has affected our growth much, if at all.” The company also noted that while it’s always evaluating merger opportunities: “We don’t view any assets as ‘must-have’ and we haven’t yet found any large scale ones to be sufficiently compelling to act upon.”<blockquote>“我们还处于进一步向游戏领域扩张的早期阶段，建立在我们早期围绕交互性（例如Black Mirror Bandersnatch）和Stranger Things游戏的基础上。我们将游戏视为我们的另一个新内容类别，类似于我们向原创电影、动画和无脚本电视的扩张。游戏将免费包含在会员的Netflix订阅中，类似于电影和连续剧最初，我们将主要关注移动设备上的游戏。我们一如既往地对我们的电影和电视剧产品感到兴奋，我们预计我们所有现有内容类别的投资和增长将会有很长的路要走，但由于我们进军原创节目已近十年，我们认为是时候了解更多有关我们的会员如何重视游戏的信息了。”在对竞争格局的粗略概述中，Netflix指出了像华纳媒体/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DISCA\">发现</a>，表示他们“不认为这次整合对我们的增长有太大影响，如果有的话。”该公司还指出，虽然它一直在评估合并机会：“我们不认为任何资产是‘必须拥有的’，而且我们还没有发现任何足以令人信服地采取行动的大规模资产。”</blockquote> There was more bad news in NFLX cash flow, which after last quarter's surge reversed again, and dropped by $175 million, vs a positive cash flow of $899 million a year ago. NFLX notes that it is \"still expecting full year 2021 free cash flow to be approximately break even.\" The company also believes it no longer needs to raise external financing to fund our day-to-day operations. We'll see if at least that promise pans out.<blockquote>NFLX现金流方面有更多坏消息，继上季度激增后再次逆转，下降了1.75亿美元，而一年前现金流为正8.99亿美元。NFLX指出，“仍预计2021年全年自由现金流将接近收支平衡。”该公司还认为，不再需要筹集外部融资来为我们的日常运营提供资金。我们将看看至少这个承诺是否会实现。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ceb3aed0130e94558eb4acfb4ed6369\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other news, during Q2, NFLX increased its revolving credit facility (which remains undrawn) to $1 billion from $750 million and extended the maturity from 2024 to 2026. The company also repurchased 1 million shares for $500 million (at an average per share price of about $500) under our $5 billion share authorization: the company said its \"main priority is to invest in the organic growth of our business while maintaining strong liquidity and retaining financial flexibility for strategic investments.\"<blockquote>其他消息方面，第二季度，NFLX将其循环信贷额度（仍未提取）从7.5亿美元增加到10亿美元，并将期限从2024年延长至2026年。该公司还根据我们50亿美元的股票授权，以5亿美元（平均每股价格约为500美元）回购了100万股股票：该公司表示，其“主要优先事项是投资于我们业务的有机增长，同时保持强劲的流动性并保留战略投资的财务灵活性。”</blockquote> After all that, the market was unimpressed but it could have been worse: after initially plunging below $500 briefly, the stock has since stabilized down 2% around $515. Among stocks that are down in sympathy, video-streaming platform Roku falls 1.4%.<blockquote>毕竟，市场并不为所动，但情况可能会更糟：在最初短暂跌破500美元后，该股此后稳定下跌2%，约为515美元。在同情下跌的股票中，视频流媒体平台Roku下跌1.4%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7e85e2830bd58f17652f92dedb29b4\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Netflix Slides&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<blockquote>Netflix在盘前交易中下滑。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/304dae8666ce15371c9686fbd96d32bb\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix Slides After Subscriber Guidance Misses Estimates<blockquote>订户指引未达预期后Netflix股价下滑</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix Slides After Subscriber Guidance Misses Estimates<blockquote>订户指引未达预期后Netflix股价下滑</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-21 15:52\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nRecent earnings reports from streaming giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> have been a mixed bag: the stock tumbled three quarters ago when the company reported earnings for its first full \"post Corona\" quarter and warned that\"growth is slowing\",before againplunging three quarters agowhen the company reported a huge miss in both EPS and new subs, which at 2.2 million was tied for the worst quarter in the past five years, while also reporting a worse than expected outlook for the current quarter. This reversedtwo quarters agowhen Netflix reported a blowout subscriber beat and projected it would soon be cash flow positive, sending its stock soaring to an all time high - if only briefly before again reversing and then tumblinglast quarterwhen Netflix again disappointed when it reported a huge subscriber miss and giving dismal guidance.<blockquote>流媒体巨头最近的收益报告<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>情况好坏参半：三个季度前，当该公司公布第一个完整的“后电晕”季度收益时，该股暴跌，并警告称“增长放缓”，在三个季度前再次暴跌之前，该公司报告每股收益和新潜艇均大幅下滑，为220万辆，并列过去五年来最糟糕的季度，同时还报告了本季度的前景差于预期。两个季度前，这种情况发生了逆转，当时Netflix报告订户数量井喷，并预计很快就会实现正现金流，导致其股价飙升至历史新高——即使只是短暂的，然后再次逆转，然后暴跌。上个季度，Netflix报告订户数量巨大，再次感到失望。错过并给出令人沮丧的指导。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fe65be48d8a2ae27f38c5f2f476d77\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which brings us to today, when investors are on edge today to find out not whether the company would beat or miss expectations, but rather if the slowdown CEO Reed Hastings warned about is for real and has pulled forward even more subscribers due to covid? After all, Netflix has been warning for months that growth would slow in 2021 compared to the phenomenal signup rate at the start of the pandemic lockdown last year. And yes, brace for a huge base effect hit:in the second quarter of 2020, the service added 10 million new customers, second only to the 15.77 million it added in the record first quarter of 2020.<blockquote>这就把我们带到了今天，投资者今天紧张地想知道的不是该公司是否会超出或低于预期，而是首席执行官里德·黑斯廷斯警告的经济放缓是否是真的，并且由于新冠疫情而吸引了更多的订户？毕竟，Netflix几个月来一直警告称，与去年大流行封锁开始时惊人的注册率相比，2021年的增长将放缓。是的，准备好迎接巨大的基础效应吧：2020年第二季度，该服务新增客户1000万，仅次于创纪录的2020年第一季度新增的1577万。</blockquote> To be sure, despite a series of hit or miss earnings, the company has been riding a wave of optimism, its stock soaring in early 2021. Still, after hitting to a record high in January, the stock has traded rangbeound, unable to break out to a new high, for the past seven months. And while there’s no doubt that viewership has surged during the Covid-19 lockdowns in the U.S. and much of the world, there are complications: the virus has brought TV and film production to a halt, a situation that may only get more dire for Netflix as the months wear on. But the biggest question remainshow many future subs has covid brought to the present, and tied to that - will the panic over the Delta strain lead to another mini burst in subscribers in the coming quater(s)?<blockquote>可以肯定的是，尽管盈利出现了一系列时好时坏的情况，但该公司一直在乘着乐观情绪的浪潮，其股价在2021年初飙升。尽管如此，在一月份创下历史新高后，该股在过去七个月里一直徘徊不前，未能突破新高。尽管毫无疑问，在美国和世界大部分地区的Covid-19封锁期间，收视率激增，但也存在复杂情况：病毒导致电视和电影制作停止，随着时间的推移，这种情况对Netflix来说可能只会变得更加可怕。但最大的问题依然存在covid为现在带来了多少未来的subs，与此相关的是，对Delta菌株的恐慌会导致未来几个季度用户的另一次小爆发吗？</blockquote> Indicatively, consensus expects just 1.12 million new subscribers to be added in the second quarter, just above the company's own projection of 1 million new subs. Revenue are expected to come in at $7.32 billion, up from $7.16 billion last quarter, and resulting in EPS of $3.36, down slightly from last quarter's $3.75. This, as streaming video remains on a hot streak since the pandemic struck.<blockquote>值得注意的是，市场普遍预计第二季度仅新增112万新用户，略高于该公司自己预测的100万新用户。收入预计为73.2亿美元，高于上季度的71.6亿美元，每股收益为3.36美元，略低于上季度的3.75美元。这是因为自疫情袭击以来，流媒体视频一直保持火爆势头。</blockquote> Previewing the quarterly result, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Geetha Ranganathan and Amine Bensaid cautioned that Netflix’s massive 2020 is leading to more muted subscriber gains this year: \"Netflix will continue to feel the aftereffects of a super-charged 1H20, with a massive pull-forward of demand prompting tempered expectations for 1 million additions in 2Q, its lowest quarterly level since 4Q11. The pull-forward may have also been amplified by price increases and pent-up demand for outdoor entertainment leading to uncertainty in 3Q guidance, though the return of several high-profile titles (‘Witcher,’ ‘Cobra Kai,’ ‘You’ and ‘Money Heist’) will be a clear catalyst for normalizing subscriber gains from 4Q and into 2022.\"<blockquote>彭博资讯(Bloomberg Intelligence)分析师Geetha Ranganathan和Amine Bensaid在预览季度业绩时警告称，Netflix 2020年的大规模增长将导致今年的订户增长更加疲软：Netflix, Inc.将继续感受到1H20超负荷的后遗症，需求将大幅拉动第二季度新增100万人的预期，这是自2011年第四季度以来的最低季度水平。价格上涨和户外娱乐需求被压抑，导致第三季度指引的不确定性，尽管几部备受瞩目的游戏（《巫师》、《眼镜蛇凯》、《你》和《金钱大劫案》）的回归将成为第四季度至2022年订户增长正常化的明显催化剂。”</blockquote> LightShed Partners media analyst Rich Greenfield published what he sees as the key questions Netflix investors should ask management after its earnings report. Among them are when Netflix’s subscriber growth will normalize, whether India can be a meaningful driver of profitability, and where the company sees opportunities in video games. Greenfield asks: “Is the goal to leverage IP you create for TV/film or create original video game IP that can be leveraged into TV/film production?”<blockquote>LightShed Partners媒体分析师Rich Greenfield发表了他认为Netflix投资者在财报发布后应该向管理层提出的关键问题。其中包括Netflix的用户增长何时会正常化，印度是否可以成为盈利的有意义的驱动力，以及该公司在视频游戏领域看到了哪些机会。格林菲尔德问道：“目标是利用你为电视/电影创作的IP，还是创造可以用于电视/电影制作的原创视频游戏IP？”</blockquote> Another thing to watch out for is how a slowdown in production last year is affecting the service. The filming of new shows and movies basically came to a standstill in early 2020, which curbed output in the following months.<blockquote>另一件需要注意的事情是去年生产放缓如何影响服务。新节目和电影的拍摄在2020年初基本陷入停滞，这抑制了随后几个月的产量。</blockquote> * * *<blockquote>***</blockquote> So with all that in mind, was <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a> the quarter that would finally unleash another repricing higher for Netflix stock?Alas, it would again not be this time because despite beating on the top line, and adding more subscribers than expected, the company missed on EPS andagainreported another dismal quarterly guidance which came in well below expectations (full letter to shareholders).<blockquote>考虑到这一点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>这个季度最终会引发Netflix股票的另一次重新定价？唉，这次又不会了，因为尽管营收超出预期，订户数量也超出预期，但该公司未能实现每股收益和再一次报告了另一份惨淡的季度指引，远低于预期（致股东的完整信）。</blockquote> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a>, the good news:<blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>好消息是：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Q2 revenue $7.34B,beatingEst. $7.32B</li> <li>Q2 Streaming Paid Net Change +1.54M,beatingEst. +1.12M</li> <li>Operating margin of 25.2% came in on top of estiamtes of 25.2%</li> </ul> And then the bad news:<blockquote><ul><li>第二季度收入$7.34 B，殴打估计数。$7.32 B</li><li>第二季度流媒体付费净变化+154万，殴打估计数。+1.12 m</li><li>营业利润率为25.2%，高于预期的25.2%</li></ul>然后是坏消息：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Q2 EPS $2.97 missing consensus Est. $3.14</li> <li>Company sees Q3 Streaming Paid Net Change +3.50M, far below the Wall Street estimate of +5.86M</li> </ul> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> as bad,the company reported its first decline in US/Canada paid subscribers, which shrank by 430K to 73.95MM. This was the first time NFLX lost customers domestically since 2019.<blockquote><ul><li>第二季度每股收益2.97美元，未达到共识预期。$3.14</li><li>公司预计第三季度流媒体付费净变化+350万，远低于华尔街预期的+586万</li></ul><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>同样糟糕，该公司报告称，美国/加拿大付费用户首次下降，减少43万至7395万。这是NFLX自2019年以来首次在国内失去客户。</blockquote> In other words, while q2 revenue rose 19% and operating income rose 36%,shares tumbled after its third-quarter subscriber forecast missed estimates.<blockquote>也就是说，在q2营收增长19%、营业收入增长36%的同时，第三季度订户预测未达到预期后，股价暴跌。</blockquote> Here is the full breakdown of Q2 subs which saw a drop in US/Canada paid subs:<blockquote>以下是第二季度美国/加拿大付费潜艇数量下降的潜艇的完整明细：</blockquote> <ul> <li>UCAN streaming paid net change -430,000, estimate +52,190</li> <li>EMEA streaming paid net change +190,000, estimate +429,335</li> <li>LATAM streaming paid net change +760,000, estimate +128,719</li> <li>APAC streaming paid net change +1.02 million, estimate +524,900</li> <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSS\">Total</a> Streaming paid net change +1.54 million, estimate +1.12 million (Bloomberg Consensus)</li> </ul> And visually:<blockquote><ul><li>UCAN streaming付费净变化-430,000，估计+52,190</li><li>EMEA流媒体付费净变化+190,000，预估+429,335</li><li>LATAM streaming付费净变化+760,000，预估+128,719</li><li>亚太地区流媒体付费净变化+102万，预估+524,900</li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSS\">总的</a>流媒体付费净变化+154万，预估+112万（彭博共识）</li></ul>视觉上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85f0ab057ffe490df75bde4db70226d4\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"842\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Commenting on the Q2 results, NFLX said that revenue growth was driven by an 11% increase in average paid streaming memberships and 8% growth in average revenue per membership (ARM). “COVID has created some lumpiness in our membership growth (higher growth in 2020, slower growth this year), which is working its way through.”<blockquote>NFLX在评论第二季度业绩时表示，收入增长是由平均付费流媒体会员数量增长11%和平均每位会员收入(ARM)增长8%推动的。“新冠疫情给我们的会员增长带来了一些波动（2020年增长较高，今年增长较慢），但这种情况正在得到解决。”</blockquote> A more detailed breakdown of why the company continues to see \"choppiness\" in its earnings:<blockquote>更详细地分析了该公司盈利持续“波动”的原因：</blockquote> \"The pandemic has created unusual choppiness in our growth and distorts year-over-year comparisons as acquisition and engagement per member household spiked in the early months of COVID. In Q2’21, our engagement per member household was, as expected, down vs. those unprecedented levels but was still up 17% compared with a more comparable Q2’19. Similarly, retention continues to be strong and better than pre-COVID Q2’19 levels, even as average revenue per membership has grown 8% over this two-year period, demonstrating how much our members value Netflix and that as we improve our service we can charge a bit more. \" NFLX also said that it added 1.5m paid memberships in Q2, \"slightly ahead of our 1.0m guidance forecast\"with the APAC region representing about two-thirds of global paid net adds in the quarter. Meanwhile, as noted above,Q2 paid memberships in the UCAN region were down sequentially (-0.4m paid net adds):\"We believe our large membership base in UCAN coupled with a seasonally smaller quarter for acquisition is the main reason for this dynamic. This is similar to what we experienced in Q2’19 when our UCAN paid net adds were -0.1m; since then we’ve added nearly 7.5m paid net adds in UCAN\"<blockquote>“疫情给我们的增长带来了异常波动，并扭曲了同比比较，因为在新冠疫情爆发的最初几个月，每个成员家庭的收购和参与度激增。在21年第二季度，我们每个成员家庭的参与度正如预期的那样有所下降。这些前所未有的水平，但与更具可比性的2019年第二季度相比仍增长了17%。同样，尽管每位会员的平均收入在这两年期间增长了8%，但保留率仍然强劲，并且好于2019年第二季度新冠疫情爆发前的水平，这表明我们的会员对Netflix的重视程度以及我们改进我们的服务我们可以多收一点钱。”NFLX还表示，第二季度付费会员数量增加了150万，“略高于我们100万的指导预测”亚太地区约占本季度全球付费净增额的三分之二同时，如上所述，UCAN地区第二季度付费会员数量环比下降（付费净增-40万）：\"我们认为，我们在UCAN的庞大会员基础加上季节性较小的季度收购是这种动态的主要原因。这与我们在2019年第二季度经历的情况类似，当时我们的UCAN付费净增额为-0.1 M；从那时起，我们在UCAN中增加了近750万付费净添加量”</blockquote> This means that the covid pandemic in 2020 pulled forward so many subs that 2021 is shaping up to be the wirst year since at least 2016.<blockquote>这意味着2020年的covid疫情号推进了如此多的潜艇，以至于2021年将成为至少自2016年以来的第一年。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1a78edf8126b85753fd3218713aba96\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Understandably, now that companies are comping to 2019 not to 2020 (for the dismal base effect), Netflix is urging investors to compare this year to 2019 and not to the same quarter a year ago (when the pandemic boosted subscriber growth). Oddly the company had no problem comparing 2020 to 2019 when the numbers were in its favor, but we digress... The company points out that user engagement per member household was down in the second quarter compared with “those unprecedented levels” of 2020, but it was up 17% “compared with a more comparable Q2’19.”<blockquote>可以理解的是，现在公司正在与2019年而不是2020年竞争（由于惨淡的基数效应），Netflix敦促投资者将今年与2019年进行比较，而不是与一年前的同一季度（当时大流行促进了用户增长）进行比较。奇怪的是，当数字对其有利时，该公司在比较2020年和2019年时没有问题，但我们跑题了...该公司指出，与2020年“前所未有的水平”相比，第二季度每个成员家庭的用户参与度有所下降，但“与更具可比性的2019年第二季度相比”增长了17%。</blockquote> Perhaps in an attempt to divert attention from (lack of) subscriber growth, Netflix said it was making good on its promise back in 2016 to steadily grow its operating margin. The streaming giant is targeting a 20% operating margin for 2021.<blockquote>或许是为了转移人们对（缺乏）用户增长的注意力，Netflix表示，它正在兑现2016年的承诺，稳步提高营业利润率。这家流媒体巨头的目标是2021年营业利润率达到20%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f26d1f9fee9dc38cc58bff5bdc43c73\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Some more details here:<blockquote>更多详情请点击此处：</blockquote> “Assuming we achieve our margin target this year, we will have quintupled our operating margin in the last five years and are tracking ahead of this average annual three percentage point pace.. .. With revenue and margin both increasing, our operating profit dollars have risen dramatically as well (even as we have been investing heavily), from about $100 million per quarter in 2016 to nearly $2 billion per quarter so far in 2021. But while shareholders may excuse the decline in US subs, they were not happy with the company's overall guidance,where it now sees just 3.5 million new subs in Q3, far below the 5.86 million expected.<blockquote>“假设我们今年实现利润率目标，我们的营业利润率将在过去五年中增长五倍，并且领先于年均三个百分点的速度。..随着收入和利润率的增长，我们的营业利润也大幅增长（尽管我们一直在大力投资），从2016年的每季度约1亿美元增加到2021年迄今为止的每季度近20亿美元。但是，尽管股东可能会原谅美国潜艇的下降，但他们对公司的整体指导并不满意，目前第三季度新增潜艇数量仅为350万艘，远低于预期的586万艘。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23205a0bb2f7fde61b3ef2da7b7a56bb\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">* * *<blockquote>***</blockquote> Looking at its content slate, Netflix said it would be light in the first half due to Covid. The company is now playing catch-up, with spending on new TV shows and movies up 41% to $8 billion in the first half. The company is targeting $12 billion in content spending for the year, a 12% bump, to wit:<blockquote>从其内容清单来看，Netflix表示，由于新冠疫情，上半年的内容将会清淡。该公司现在正在迎头赶上，上半年在新电视节目和电影上的支出增长了41%，达到80亿美元。该公司今年的内容支出目标为120亿美元，增长12%，即：</blockquote> Through the first half of 2021 we’ve already spent $8 billion in cash on content (up 41% yr-over-yr and 1.4x our content amortization) and we expect content amortization to be around $12 billion for the full year (+12% year over year). Our Q3 slate will include new seasons of fan favorites La Casa de Papel (aka Money Heist), Sex Education, Virgin River and Never Have I Ever as well as live action films including Sweet Girl (starring Jason Momoa), Kissing Booth 3, and Kate (starring Mary Elizabeth Winstead) and the animated feature film Vivo, featuring all-new songs from Lin-Manuel Miranda. Netflix offers shared some more details on its upcoming entrance into the gaming arena:<blockquote>截至2021年上半年，我们已在内容上花费了80亿美元现金（同比增长41%，内容摊销是1.4倍）我们预计全年内容摊销约为120亿美元（同比增长12%）。我们的第三季度名单将包括粉丝最爱的《La Casa de Papel》（又名《金钱大劫案》）、《性教育》、《处女河》和《从未有过我》的新一季，以及真人电影，包括《甜蜜的女孩》（由杰森·莫玛主演）、《接吻亭3》和《凯特》（由玛丽·伊丽莎白·温斯蒂德主演）和动画故事片《Vivo》，其中收录了林·曼努尔·米兰达的全新歌曲。Netflix offers分享了有关其即将进入游戏领域的更多细节：</blockquote> “We’re also in the early stages of further expanding into games, building on our earlier efforts around interactivity (e.g., Black Mirror Bandersnatch) and our Stranger Things games. We view gaming as another new content category for us, similar to our expansion into original films, animation and unscripted TV. Games will be included in members’ Netflix subscription at no additional cost, similar to films and series . Initially, we’ll be primarily focused on games for mobile devices. We’re excited as ever about our movies and TV series offering and we expect a long runway of increasing investment and growth across all of our existing content categories, but since we are nearly a decade into our push into original programming, we think the time is right to learn more about how our members value games.” In its cursory overview of the competitive landscape, Netflix pointed out mergers like WarnerMedia/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DISCA\">Discovery</a>, saying they “don’t believe this consolidation has affected our growth much, if at all.” The company also noted that while it’s always evaluating merger opportunities: “We don’t view any assets as ‘must-have’ and we haven’t yet found any large scale ones to be sufficiently compelling to act upon.”<blockquote>“我们还处于进一步向游戏领域扩张的早期阶段，建立在我们早期围绕交互性（例如Black Mirror Bandersnatch）和Stranger Things游戏的基础上。我们将游戏视为我们的另一个新内容类别，类似于我们向原创电影、动画和无脚本电视的扩张。游戏将免费包含在会员的Netflix订阅中，类似于电影和连续剧最初，我们将主要关注移动设备上的游戏。我们一如既往地对我们的电影和电视剧产品感到兴奋，我们预计我们所有现有内容类别的投资和增长将会有很长的路要走，但由于我们进军原创节目已近十年，我们认为是时候了解更多有关我们的会员如何重视游戏的信息了。”在对竞争格局的粗略概述中，Netflix指出了像华纳媒体/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DISCA\">发现</a>，表示他们“不认为这次整合对我们的增长有太大影响，如果有的话。”该公司还指出，虽然它一直在评估合并机会：“我们不认为任何资产是‘必须拥有的’，而且我们还没有发现任何足以令人信服地采取行动的大规模资产。”</blockquote> There was more bad news in NFLX cash flow, which after last quarter's surge reversed again, and dropped by $175 million, vs a positive cash flow of $899 million a year ago. NFLX notes that it is \"still expecting full year 2021 free cash flow to be approximately break even.\" The company also believes it no longer needs to raise external financing to fund our day-to-day operations. We'll see if at least that promise pans out.<blockquote>NFLX现金流方面有更多坏消息，继上季度激增后再次逆转，下降了1.75亿美元，而一年前现金流为正8.99亿美元。NFLX指出，“仍预计2021年全年自由现金流将接近收支平衡。”该公司还认为，不再需要筹集外部融资来为我们的日常运营提供资金。我们将看看至少这个承诺是否会实现。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ceb3aed0130e94558eb4acfb4ed6369\" tg-width=\"1022\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other news, during Q2, NFLX increased its revolving credit facility (which remains undrawn) to $1 billion from $750 million and extended the maturity from 2024 to 2026. The company also repurchased 1 million shares for $500 million (at an average per share price of about $500) under our $5 billion share authorization: the company said its \"main priority is to invest in the organic growth of our business while maintaining strong liquidity and retaining financial flexibility for strategic investments.\"<blockquote>其他消息方面，第二季度，NFLX将其循环信贷额度（仍未提取）从7.5亿美元增加到10亿美元，并将期限从2024年延长至2026年。该公司还根据我们50亿美元的股票授权，以5亿美元（平均每股价格约为500美元）回购了100万股股票：该公司表示，其“主要优先事项是投资于我们业务的有机增长，同时保持强劲的流动性并保留战略投资的财务灵活性。”</blockquote> After all that, the market was unimpressed but it could have been worse: after initially plunging below $500 briefly, the stock has since stabilized down 2% around $515. Among stocks that are down in sympathy, video-streaming platform Roku falls 1.4%.<blockquote>毕竟，市场并不为所动，但情况可能会更糟：在最初短暂跌破500美元后，该股此后稳定下跌2%，约为515美元。在同情下跌的股票中，视频流媒体平台Roku下跌1.4%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7e85e2830bd58f17652f92dedb29b4\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Netflix Slides&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<blockquote>Netflix在盘前交易中下滑。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/304dae8666ce15371c9686fbd96d32bb\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/netflix-slides-after-subscriber-guidance-misses-estimates\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/netflix-slides-after-subscriber-guidance-misses-estimates","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183563723","content_text":"Recent earnings reports from streaming giant Netflix have been a mixed bag: the stock tumbled three quarters ago when the company reported earnings for its first full \"post Corona\" quarter and warned that\"growth is slowing\",before againplunging three quarters agowhen the company reported a huge miss in both EPS and new subs, which at 2.2 million was tied for the worst quarter in the past five years, while also reporting a worse than expected outlook for the current quarter. This reversedtwo quarters agowhen Netflix reported a blowout subscriber beat and projected it would soon be cash flow positive, sending its stock soaring to an all time high - if only briefly before again reversing and then tumblinglast quarterwhen Netflix again disappointed when it reported a huge subscriber miss and giving dismal guidance.\nWhich brings us to today, when investors are on edge today to find out not whether the company would beat or miss expectations, but rather if the slowdown CEO Reed Hastings warned about is for real and has pulled forward even more subscribers due to covid? After all, Netflix has been warning for months that growth would slow in 2021 compared to the phenomenal signup rate at the start of the pandemic lockdown last year. And yes, brace for a huge base effect hit:in the second quarter of 2020, the service added 10 million new customers, second only to the 15.77 million it added in the record first quarter of 2020.\nTo be sure, despite a series of hit or miss earnings, the company has been riding a wave of optimism, its stock soaring in early 2021. Still, after hitting to a record high in January, the stock has traded rangbeound, unable to break out to a new high, for the past seven months. And while there’s no doubt that viewership has surged during the Covid-19 lockdowns in the U.S. and much of the world, there are complications: the virus has brought TV and film production to a halt, a situation that may only get more dire for Netflix as the months wear on. But the biggest question remainshow many future subs has covid brought to the present, and tied to that - will the panic over the Delta strain lead to another mini burst in subscribers in the coming quater(s)?\nIndicatively, consensus expects just 1.12 million new subscribers to be added in the second quarter, just above the company's own projection of 1 million new subs. Revenue are expected to come in at $7.32 billion, up from $7.16 billion last quarter, and resulting in EPS of $3.36, down slightly from last quarter's $3.75. This, as streaming video remains on a hot streak since the pandemic struck.\nPreviewing the quarterly result, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Geetha Ranganathan and Amine Bensaid cautioned that Netflix’s massive 2020 is leading to more muted subscriber gains this year: \"Netflix will continue to feel the aftereffects of a super-charged 1H20, with a massive pull-forward of demand prompting tempered expectations for 1 million additions in 2Q, its lowest quarterly level since 4Q11. The pull-forward may have also been amplified by price increases and pent-up demand for outdoor entertainment leading to uncertainty in 3Q guidance, though the return of several high-profile titles (‘Witcher,’ ‘Cobra Kai,’ ‘You’ and ‘Money Heist’) will be a clear catalyst for normalizing subscriber gains from 4Q and into 2022.\"\nLightShed Partners media analyst Rich Greenfield published what he sees as the key questions Netflix investors should ask management after its earnings report. Among them are when Netflix’s subscriber growth will normalize, whether India can be a meaningful driver of profitability, and where the company sees opportunities in video games. Greenfield asks: “Is the goal to leverage IP you create for TV/film or create original video game IP that can be leveraged into TV/film production?”\nAnother thing to watch out for is how a slowdown in production last year is affecting the service. The filming of new shows and movies basically came to a standstill in early 2020, which curbed output in the following months.\n* * *\nSo with all that in mind, was Q2 the quarter that would finally unleash another repricing higher for Netflix stock?Alas, it would again not be this time because despite beating on the top line, and adding more subscribers than expected, the company missed on EPS andagainreported another dismal quarterly guidance which came in well below expectations (full letter to shareholders).\nFirst, the good news:\n\nQ2 revenue $7.34B,beatingEst. $7.32B\nQ2 Streaming Paid Net Change +1.54M,beatingEst. +1.12M\nOperating margin of 25.2% came in on top of estiamtes of 25.2%\n\nAnd then the bad news:\n\nQ2 EPS $2.97 missing consensus Est. $3.14\nCompany sees Q3 Streaming Paid Net Change +3.50M, far below the Wall Street estimate of +5.86M\n\nJust as bad,the company reported its first decline in US/Canada paid subscribers, which shrank by 430K to 73.95MM. This was the first time NFLX lost customers domestically since 2019.\nIn other words, while q2 revenue rose 19% and operating income rose 36%,shares tumbled after its third-quarter subscriber forecast missed estimates.\nHere is the full breakdown of Q2 subs which saw a drop in US/Canada paid subs:\n\nUCAN streaming paid net change -430,000, estimate +52,190\nEMEA streaming paid net change +190,000, estimate +429,335\nLATAM streaming paid net change +760,000, estimate +128,719\nAPAC streaming paid net change +1.02 million, estimate +524,900\nTotal Streaming paid net change +1.54 million, estimate +1.12 million (Bloomberg Consensus)\n\nAnd visually:\nCommenting on the Q2 results, NFLX said that revenue growth was driven by an 11% increase in average paid streaming memberships and 8% growth in average revenue per membership (ARM). “COVID has created some lumpiness in our membership growth (higher growth in 2020, slower growth this year), which is working its way through.”\nA more detailed breakdown of why the company continues to see \"choppiness\" in its earnings:\n\n\"The pandemic has created unusual choppiness in our growth and distorts year-over-year comparisons as acquisition and engagement per member household spiked in the early months of COVID. In Q2’21, our engagement per member household was, as expected, down vs. those unprecedented levels but was still up 17% compared with a more comparable Q2’19. Similarly, retention continues to be strong and better than pre-COVID Q2’19 levels, even as average revenue per membership has grown 8% over this two-year period, demonstrating how much our members value Netflix and that as we improve our service we can charge a bit more. \"\n\nNFLX also said that it added 1.5m paid memberships in Q2, \"slightly ahead of our 1.0m guidance forecast\"with the APAC region representing about two-thirds of global paid net adds in the quarter. Meanwhile, as noted above,Q2 paid memberships in the UCAN region were down sequentially (-0.4m paid net adds):\"We believe our large membership base in UCAN coupled with a seasonally smaller quarter for acquisition is the main reason for this dynamic. This is similar to what we experienced in Q2’19 when our UCAN paid net adds were -0.1m; since then we’ve added nearly 7.5m paid net adds in UCAN\"\nThis means that the covid pandemic in 2020 pulled forward so many subs that 2021 is shaping up to be the wirst year since at least 2016.\nUnderstandably, now that companies are comping to 2019 not to 2020 (for the dismal base effect), Netflix is urging investors to compare this year to 2019 and not to the same quarter a year ago (when the pandemic boosted subscriber growth). Oddly the company had no problem comparing 2020 to 2019 when the numbers were in its favor, but we digress... The company points out that user engagement per member household was down in the second quarter compared with “those unprecedented levels” of 2020, but it was up 17% “compared with a more comparable Q2’19.”\nPerhaps in an attempt to divert attention from (lack of) subscriber growth, Netflix said it was making good on its promise back in 2016 to steadily grow its operating margin. The streaming giant is targeting a 20% operating margin for 2021.\nSome more details here:\n\n“Assuming we achieve our margin target this year, we will have quintupled our operating margin in the last five years and are tracking ahead of this average annual three percentage point pace..\n.. With revenue and margin both increasing, our operating profit dollars have risen dramatically as well (even as we have been investing heavily), from about $100 million per quarter in 2016 to nearly $2 billion per quarter so far in 2021.\n\nBut while shareholders may excuse the decline in US subs, they were not happy with the company's overall guidance,where it now sees just 3.5 million new subs in Q3, far below the 5.86 million expected.\n* * *\nLooking at its content slate, Netflix said it would be light in the first half due to Covid. The company is now playing catch-up, with spending on new TV shows and movies up 41% to $8 billion in the first half. The company is targeting $12 billion in content spending for the year, a 12% bump, to wit:\n\nThrough the first half of 2021 we’ve already spent $8 billion in cash on content (up 41% yr-over-yr and 1.4x our content amortization)\nand we expect content amortization to be around $12 billion for the full year (+12% year over year). Our Q3 slate will include new seasons of fan favorites La Casa de Papel (aka Money Heist), Sex Education, Virgin River and Never Have I Ever as well as live action films including Sweet Girl (starring Jason Momoa), Kissing Booth 3, and Kate (starring Mary Elizabeth Winstead) and the animated feature film Vivo, featuring all-new songs from Lin-Manuel Miranda.\n\nNetflix offers shared some more details on its upcoming entrance into the gaming arena:\n\n“We’re also in the early stages of further expanding into games, building on our earlier efforts around interactivity (e.g., Black Mirror Bandersnatch) and our Stranger Things games. We view gaming as another new content category for us, similar to our expansion into original films, animation and unscripted TV.\nGames will be included in members’ Netflix subscription at no additional cost, similar to films and series\n. Initially, we’ll be primarily focused on games for mobile devices. We’re excited as ever about our movies and TV series offering and we expect a long runway of increasing investment and growth across all of our existing content categories, but since we are nearly a decade into our push into original programming, we think the time is right to learn more about how our members value games.”\n\nIn its cursory overview of the competitive landscape, Netflix pointed out mergers like WarnerMedia/Discovery, saying they “don’t believe this consolidation has affected our growth much, if at all.” The company also noted that while it’s always evaluating merger opportunities: “We don’t view any assets as ‘must-have’ and we haven’t yet found any large scale ones to be sufficiently compelling to act upon.”\nThere was more bad news in NFLX cash flow, which after last quarter's surge reversed again, and dropped by $175 million, vs a positive cash flow of $899 million a year ago. NFLX notes that it is \"still expecting full year 2021 free cash flow to be approximately break even.\" The company also believes it no longer needs to raise external financing to fund our day-to-day operations. We'll see if at least that promise pans out.\nIn other news, during Q2, NFLX increased its revolving credit facility (which remains undrawn) to $1 billion from $750 million and extended the maturity from 2024 to 2026. The company also repurchased 1 million shares for $500 million (at an average per share price of about $500) under our $5 billion share authorization: the company said its \"main priority is to invest in the organic growth of our business while maintaining strong liquidity and retaining financial flexibility for strategic investments.\"\nAfter all that, the market was unimpressed but it could have been worse: after initially plunging below $500 briefly, the stock has since stabilized down 2% around $515. Among stocks that are down in sympathy, video-streaming platform Roku falls 1.4%.\nNetflix Slides in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"GUID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/176982671"}