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2021-07-25

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GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over<blockquote>游戏驿站：比赛远未结束</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":177882229,"tweetId":"177882229","gmtCreate":1627195740161,"gmtModify":1631891347014,"author":{"id":3582623610923489,"idStr":"3582623610923489","authorId":3582623610923489,"authorIdStr":"3582623610923489","name":"Jcbduck","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b312b4fd97df52da46b59506df7179","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Great</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Great</body></html>","text":"Great","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177882229","repostId":1107345366,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107345366","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627176839,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107345366?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 09:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop: The Game Is Far From Over<blockquote>游戏驿站：比赛远未结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107345366","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce pla","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>GameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.</li> <li>We think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.</li> <li>In addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.</li> <li>While we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.</li> </ul> Investment Thesis<blockquote><ul><li>游戏驿站已经进行了自我改造，逐步成为一个主要的电子商务公司。</li><li>我们认为，如果管理团队能够成功执行其新的电子商务支点，该公司可能正处于拐点。</li><li>此外，鉴于 Reddit 社区不断增长的用户群及其对投资者决策过程的影响力，我们建议空头特别关注该社区。</li><li>虽然我们在游戏驿站没有立足之地，但我们认为公司的游戏还没有结束。</li></ul>投资论文</blockquote> The speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.<blockquote>游戏驿站（GME）在 1 月份飙升至每股 480 美元的平流层水平，其背后的投机热情已大大消退，因为该股最后一次交易价格为 178 美元，比 1 月份狂热期间的 ATH 下跌了 63%。</blockquote> While we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.<blockquote>虽然我们在很大程度上同意华尔街的估值意见，即这只股票似乎被严重高估了（华尔街的平均目标价为 37.5 美元），但我们也想强调的是，我们认为目前还没有一个能够全面纳入推动公司股价的潜在因素的估值模型，因此不会大胆地向对 meme 股票感兴趣的投资者宣布远离 GME。</blockquote> We thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:<blockquote>我们认为 Marketer 在 6 月份最近的一篇文章中概述了他们认为哪些因素可能推动了 GME 等 Reddit 论坛上 meme 股票背后的潜在需求：</blockquote> Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early. We think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.<blockquote>惩罚卖空者。Clover Health (CLOV) 卖空者认为该股被高估，按市值计算损失减少了 4.38 亿美元。游戏驿站卖空者损失了超过 50 亿美元。让市场感到困惑 “迷惑”--也就是说，这只是有趣的。r/WallStreetBets 上的 Reddit 帖子强调了会员如何为了杜平金融机构的喜悦而做出看似非理性的投资决策。人为膨胀的股价可以让早期投资的少数幸运儿实现利润最大化。我们认为，接受过基本面分析培训的投资者永远无法开发出能够充分考虑上述因素的模型，因为这些投资者认为股票的长期价值是由其基础业务的长期实力和竞争护城河驱动的，但不是Redditors在分析股票时采用的“可笑”方法。</blockquote> In this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.<blockquote>在本文中，我们将更深入地了解支撑 GME 业务的关键基本驱动因素，以及我们认为 Reddit 社区对 GME 等模因股票的参与和影响将如何继续扰乱该公司未来的估值前景。</blockquote> What Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?<blockquote>自一月狂热以来，游戏驿站发生了什么变化？</blockquote> GME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"<blockquote>GME 最近任命了亚马逊 (AMZN) 的两名资深高管：Matt Furlong 和 Mike Recupero 分别担任首席执行官和首席财务官，这是董事长 Ryan Cohen 对 GME 商业模式进行战略改造的一部分，旨在转向成为主要的“电子商务巨头”。</blockquote> While the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.<blockquote>虽然到目前为止，新管理层的指导可能很少，但团队肯定已经迅速着手工作，建立必要的基础，逐步将GME转变为主要的电子商务公司，因为他们已经开始扩大其履行中心，最近在内华达州里诺和宾夕法尼亚州约克新建了两个设施，使该公司的总产能超过120万平方英尺。</blockquote> Ryan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:<blockquote>瑞安·科恩 (Ryan Cohen) 还明确表示，公司不会向竞争对手详细说明其检修计划的复杂细节，而是呼吁投资者根据团队的行动来评判团队，他强调：</blockquote> You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words. However, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”<blockquote>你不会发现我们在谈论一个大游戏，做出一堆崇高的承诺，或者向竞争对手传达我们的战略....我们面前有很多工作要做。展望未来，我们希望你们根据我们的行动而不是我们的言语来评判游戏驿站。然而，正如 WedBush Securities 最近所阐述的那样，华尔街几乎不相信瑞安-科恩或公司的战略： “我认为这已经从他身上溜走了。我认为他的自尊心挡住了去路，现在他要向所有人证明（他）知道自己在做什么。如果说有什么策略，那他竟然没有告诉我们，真是令人震惊。我们五个月前就应该听说了。这是什么秘密？”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/213a840d218039b67bebc984532ecf5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarterly revenues. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>季度收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46f7322b39c6468f6929c1fd414921b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LTM revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>LTM收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> We could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.<blockquote>我们可以观察到，该公司似乎已经能够在 21 年第四季度和 22 年第一季度阻止收入下降的趋势（GME 对其财年的定义与其 CY 不同），这发生在新管理层到位之前很久。该公司 21 年第四季度的收入为 $2.12B，是过去 3 年的强劲季度，而 22 年第一季度的收入同比增长 25%。因此，当我们在 LTM 基础上绘制它时，我们认为在地平线上有希望，也许新的管理团队在公司寻求成为重要的电子商务竞争对手的过程中可能会有一个令人鼓舞的开端。我们认为投资者应继续密切关注这一领域，特别是该公司履行中心的建设，这对于其电子商务雄心至关重要。</blockquote> LTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>LTM EBIT 利润率趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> While the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.<blockquote>虽然该公司的息税前利润率趋势无疑是一个值得关注的领域，但我们认为这是一个值得关注的领域，因为我们再次观察到 LTM 趋势有所改善，因为该公司公布的 LTM 息税前利润率为 -3.5% 2022 年第一季度，而 LTM 息税前利润率为 -4.9%。虽然我们认为该公司还没有走出困境，但我们认为该公司可能已经停止了腐烂，至少目前是这样。</blockquote> Debt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St<blockquote>债务股本比率。来源：Simply Wall St</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaacbe2d43de887038c30e9ab4bcfa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>LTM 杠杆 FCF 保证金。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> The company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.<blockquote>该公司还巧妙地利用其股价完成了两次股权发行，以支撑其资产负债表。因此，该公司的债务股本比率已显着改善至5.5%，债务余额仅为4810万美元，而现金和ST投资余额为6.947亿美元（截至21年5月1日，在两次股权发行之前，共筹集了1.677亿美元，在削减债务之前）。此外，该公司也从未真正流失过现金，因为其杠杆自由现金流利润率趋势一直相对健康，同时最近一个季度还将其 LTM 杠杆自由现金流利润率提高到 1.6%。</blockquote> Therefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:<blockquote>因此，我们认为，如果管理层能够成功推进，GME 看起来处于有利地位，可以利用其新的电子商务支点的战略改革。虽然我们目前对 GME 的未来路线图还不太确定，但 Reddit 社区似乎已准备好继续支持这家公司，因为我们将详细介绍 Reddit 社区如何继续成为一股非常重要的力量，在他们寻求提振公司股价的过程中，甚至连 Ryan Cohen 都特意向 Reddit 社区致敬：</blockquote> We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day. The Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020<blockquote>我们很幸运有这样一群特殊的投资者持有公司股票，你们每天都激励我们想得更远、更努力、更长时间。Reddit社区在2020年增长了25.9%</blockquote> US social network user growth, by platform 2020 &amp; 2021. Source:eMarketer<blockquote>2020年和2021年美国社交网络用户增长。来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Investors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.<blockquote>投资者应该能够观察到 Reddit 在 2020 年实现了非常显着的增长，其平台上的用户同比增长 25.9%，Marketer 还预计 Reddit 社区在 2021 年将增长 14.4%，达到 4330 万用户。我们认为，Reddit 越来越受欢迎，这将继续维持投资者对 GME 等模因股票的兴趣。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f886ecf993efe35532771c132d94a6a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Population distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau<blockquote>2019年美国人口分布，按世代划分。数据来源：美国人口普查局</blockquote> We believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.<blockquote>我们相信，Reddit 无疑受益于支撑数字化的长期驱动因素，这也导致了 Robinhood (HOOD) 等交易平台的显着增长和受欢迎程度，该平台 2020 年的平均年龄为 31 岁。根据2019年的人口普查，这使得Robinhood用户的平均年龄正好在千禧一代的年龄组内，千禧一代出生于1981年至1996年之间（25至40岁），占美国人口的21.97%。</blockquote> Importantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.<blockquote>重要的是，我们还可以观察到，千禧一代投资者对股票感兴趣，而这些股票并不是典型投资者应该持有的 “安全稳定 ”股票。从上文可以看出，我们认为估值并不是这些投资者最重要的考虑因素。</blockquote> According to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.<blockquote>根据 Apex Clearing 的一份报告，特斯拉（TSLA）在 21 年第一季度的千禧一代投资组合中持股最多，持股比例为 28.3%，我们认为投资者通常不会说这只股票便宜。AAPL 以 14.5% 的份额位居第二，而 GME 也以 5.2% 的份额位居前四，这支持了我们的观点，即千禧一代投资者的动机不仅仅是基本面和估值。</blockquote> Among the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.<blockquote>在千禧一代投资组合中的持股中，我们可以观察到许多其他例子，这些例子证实了这些投资者对优质股票的兴趣，例如英伟达 (NVDA)、AMC院线 (AMC) 等另一只模因股票、丘吉尔资本公司 (CCIV)，其第三大持股；蔚来（蔚来）、Palantir（PLTR），甚至 Square（SQ），我们认为投资者通常不会将这些股票归类为价值股。</blockquote> Therefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.<blockquote>因此，我们认为广大投资者群体需要明白，有大量且不断增长的投资者群体，他们对基本面和估值的理解和期望肯定与我们典型的估值模型所能解释的大相径庭。</blockquote> We think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.<blockquote>我们认为，这个市场肯定比我们所知道的要大得多，也复杂得多，只是不可能用同样的基本面分析和估值方法对 GME 这样的 meme 股票进行估值，然后说它们被高估了，老实说，我们认为这个过程在 meme 股票投资领域毫无意义。</blockquote> Analyzing the Reddit Opinion<blockquote>分析 Reddit 意见</blockquote> Individual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick<blockquote>截至 2 月 21 日，游戏驿站在美国、英国和加拿大做空后，Reddit 上个人投资者的看法（按年龄划分）。数据来源：布伦瑞克</blockquote> According to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.<blockquote>根据Brunswick的一项调查，我们可以观察到Reddit论坛作为投资者投资工具的重要性，尤其是在18-29岁年龄组的年轻投资者中。约 14% 的投资者 “相信 Reddit 是一种媒体替代品”，在年轻投资者中，这一比例甚至飙升至 31%。此外，相当比例（25%）的年轻投资者也参加了 GME 机会，而 20% 的年轻投资者认为 GME 活动 “代表了市场力量的根本性转移”。虽然这些观点可能属于少数投资者，但我们认为投资者的比例肯定大到足以引起一般投资界的惊讶，因此我们认为Reddit论坛的力量肯定是前进中不可忽视的力量。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3108c1a56bc4c6221a4d8297e018d3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Share of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick<blockquote>使用 Reddit 调查美国、英国和加拿大问题的机构投资者比例。数据来源：布伦瑞克</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72f250f4fe70ca9af575b6828bace0d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Average trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick<blockquote>美国、英国和加拿大机构投资者对 Reddit 的平均信任得分。数据来源：布伦瑞克</blockquote> We could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.<blockquote>即使在机构投资者中，我们也可以观察到 Reddit 的影响力越来越大，因为 27% 的机构投资者使用 Reddit 来 “调查问题”，尽管他们对该平台的信任度从 2019 年的平均得分 3.5 分明显下降到 2021 年的 2.0 分，但这一比例比前几年有了明显增加。我们认为，这表明机构投资者认为 Reddit 在一般投资界决策过程中的影响力越来越大，但与前面显示的个人投资者相比，他们并不认为这些论坛上发生的事情对他们 “发达 ”的过程有足够的意义。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87f8665c27d127566189bd21a035158\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Institutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick<blockquote>机构投资者对 Reddit wallstreetbets 社区成员的态度。数据来源：布伦瑞克</blockquote> While 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.<blockquote>虽然 48% 的机构投资者认为 Redditors “可能会有短期影响力，但他们无法维持”，但 27% 的机构投资者对 Redditors 在投资者群体中的影响力产生了一些好奇，13% 的机构投资者对 Redditors 能够组建一支军队，击败华尔街一些最聪明的头脑的方式产生了某种形式的尊重。因此，我们毫不奇怪地发现，这些机构投资者中有 20% 对 Redditors 的 “市场操纵 ”感到沮丧。</blockquote> Looking Ahead<blockquote>展望未来</blockquote> Ownership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St<blockquote>所有权分解。来源：Simply Wall St</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1dd4930d00083121d28ea6d57285bc5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Institutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat<blockquote>机构所有权变更。资料来源：Marketbeat</blockquote> Moving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.<blockquote>展望未来，我们认为像 GME 这样的备忘录股票将继续在 Reddit 论坛上占据重要地位，并继续成为他们与街头抗争的 “旗舰 ”股票之一。散户投资者目前持有 GME 股票的最大份额，占总持股量的 45.1%。有趣的是，仍有相当一部分（36.4%）的机构投资者仍然持有 GME，其中包括 GME 的最大股东：贝莱德（Blackrock），该公司拥有 GME 12.36% 的股票。虽然 GME 在 21 年第二季度的机构资本大量流出 19.3 亿美元，但其股价仍远高于 2021 年第一个交易日 17.25 美元的收盘价。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a708e62291662e5d4e2bce79492dc93a\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Percentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat<blockquote>随着时间的推移做空的流通量百分比。资料来源：Marketbeat</blockquote> Importantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.<blockquote>重要的是，尽管空头流通量百分比已从 1 月份的 41.96% 大幅下降至 6 月底的 “仅 ”14.18%，这是 2021 年两周以来最低的记录，但价格仍在持续。</blockquote> Other than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.<blockquote>除了 45.1% 的散户投资者持有 GME 股票外，瑞安-科恩（Ryan Cohen）还持有 12.13% 的股份，这使他成为 GME 股票的第二大股东，仅次于贝莱德（Blackrock），尽管他在 12 月 20 日购买的最后一批 127.4 万股股票的价格约为 14.24 美元，如果考虑到 GME 的最新收盘价 178.85 美元，这无疑给了他巨大的安全边际。</blockquote> Price Action and Trend Analysis<blockquote>价格行为和趋势分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5e54ac5cfe6504ec07c334a8c52668\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView<blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote> Ever since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.<blockquote>自从我们在年初目睹的狂热以来，GME 已经稳定下来，似乎已经形成了上升趋势，支撑位在之前的 130 美元至 160 美元价格水平之间吸引了强烈的买入兴趣。根据我们的价格行为分析，我们预计买家将继续强力捍卫这一水平。对于热衷于持有 GME 头寸的投资者，我们认为他们可能会考虑在我们强调的买入范围内进行入场。</blockquote> While we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:<blockquote>斯坦汉姆资产管理公司（Stenham Asset Management）表示，虽然我们确信游戏驿站的价格波动可能会继续下去，但我们认为该股在零售社区中引起了难以置信的巨大购买兴趣，这动摇了机构投资者的基础：</blockquote> \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.” In GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.<blockquote>“在当前环境下，如果你不衡量和管理你在人群和散户兴趣方面的空头风险，你就是在疏忽，”我们认为，一家价值数十亿美元的美国对冲基金也简洁地总结了 Reddit 社区日益增长的影响力： “[我们]绝对会关注 WSB 等论坛，我们正在密切关注。”在游戏驿站，我们认为这场比赛肯定还远未结束。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early. We think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.<blockquote>惩罚卖空者。Clover Health (CLOV) 卖空者认为该股被高估，按市值计算损失减少了 4.38 亿美元。游戏驿站卖空者损失了超过 50 亿美元。让市场感到困惑 “迷惑”--也就是说，这只是有趣的。r/WallStreetBets 上的 Reddit 帖子强调了会员如何为了杜平金融机构的喜悦而做出看似非理性的投资决策。人为膨胀的股价可以让早期投资的少数幸运儿实现利润最大化。我们认为，接受过基本面分析培训的投资者永远无法开发出能够充分考虑上述因素的模型，因为这些投资者认为股票的长期价值是由其基础业务的长期实力和竞争护城河驱动的，但不是Redditors在分析股票时采用的“可笑”方法。</blockquote> In this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.<blockquote>在本文中，我们将更深入地了解支撑 GME 业务的关键基本驱动因素，以及我们认为 Reddit 社区对 GME 等模因股票的参与和影响将如何继续扰乱该公司未来的估值前景。</blockquote> What Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?<blockquote>自一月狂热以来，游戏驿站发生了什么变化？</blockquote> GME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"<blockquote>GME 最近任命了亚马逊 (AMZN) 的两名资深高管：Matt Furlong 和 Mike Recupero 分别担任首席执行官和首席财务官，这是董事长 Ryan Cohen 对 GME 商业模式进行战略改造的一部分，旨在转向成为主要的“电子商务巨头”。</blockquote> While the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.<blockquote>虽然到目前为止，新管理层的指导可能很少，但团队肯定已经迅速着手工作，建立必要的基础，逐步将GME转变为主要的电子商务公司，因为他们已经开始扩大其履行中心，最近在内华达州里诺和宾夕法尼亚州约克新建了两个设施，使该公司的总产能超过120万平方英尺。</blockquote> Ryan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:<blockquote>瑞安·科恩 (Ryan Cohen) 还明确表示，公司不会向竞争对手详细说明其检修计划的复杂细节，而是呼吁投资者根据团队的行动来评判团队，他强调：</blockquote> You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words. However, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”<blockquote>你不会发现我们在谈论一个大游戏，做出一堆崇高的承诺，或者向竞争对手传达我们的战略....我们面前有很多工作要做。展望未来，我们希望你们根据我们的行动而不是我们的言语来评判游戏驿站。然而，正如 WedBush Securities 最近所阐述的那样，华尔街几乎不相信瑞安-科恩或公司的战略： “我认为这已经从他身上溜走了。我认为他的自尊心挡住了去路，现在他要向所有人证明（他）知道自己在做什么。如果说有什么策略，那他竟然没有告诉我们，真是令人震惊。我们五个月前就应该听说了。这是什么秘密？”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/213a840d218039b67bebc984532ecf5f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Quarterly revenues. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>季度收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c46f7322b39c6468f6929c1fd414921b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LTM revenue. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>LTM收入。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> We could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.<blockquote>我们可以观察到，该公司似乎已经能够在 21 年第四季度和 22 年第一季度阻止收入下降的趋势（GME 对其财年的定义与其 CY 不同），这发生在新管理层到位之前很久。该公司 21 年第四季度的收入为 $2.12B，是过去 3 年的强劲季度，而 22 年第一季度的收入同比增长 25%。因此，当我们在 LTM 基础上绘制它时，我们认为在地平线上有希望，也许新的管理团队在公司寻求成为重要的电子商务竞争对手的过程中可能会有一个令人鼓舞的开端。我们认为投资者应继续密切关注这一领域，特别是该公司履行中心的建设，这对于其电子商务雄心至关重要。</blockquote> LTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>LTM EBIT 利润率趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> While the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.<blockquote>虽然该公司的息税前利润率趋势无疑是一个值得关注的领域，但我们认为这是一个值得关注的领域，因为我们再次观察到 LTM 趋势有所改善，因为该公司公布的 LTM 息税前利润率为 -3.5% 2022 年第一季度，而 LTM 息税前利润率为 -4.9%。虽然我们认为该公司还没有走出困境，但我们认为该公司可能已经停止了腐烂，至少目前是这样。</blockquote> Debt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St<blockquote>债务股本比率。来源：Simply Wall St</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaacbe2d43de887038c30e9ab4bcfa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">LTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>LTM 杠杆 FCF 保证金。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> The company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.<blockquote>该公司还巧妙地利用其股价完成了两次股权发行，以支撑其资产负债表。因此，该公司的债务股本比率已显着改善至5.5%，债务余额仅为4810万美元，而现金和ST投资余额为6.947亿美元（截至21年5月1日，在两次股权发行之前，共筹集了1.677亿美元，在削减债务之前）。此外，该公司也从未真正流失过现金，因为其杠杆自由现金流利润率趋势一直相对健康，同时最近一个季度还将其 LTM 杠杆自由现金流利润率提高到 1.6%。</blockquote> Therefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:<blockquote>因此，我们认为，如果管理层能够成功推进，GME 看起来处于有利地位，可以利用其新的电子商务支点的战略改革。虽然我们目前对 GME 的未来路线图还不太确定，但 Reddit 社区似乎已准备好继续支持这家公司，因为我们将详细介绍 Reddit 社区如何继续成为一股非常重要的力量，在他们寻求提振公司股价的过程中，甚至连 Ryan Cohen 都特意向 Reddit 社区致敬：</blockquote> We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day. The Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020<blockquote>我们很幸运有这样一群特殊的投资者持有公司股票，你们每天都激励我们想得更远、更努力、更长时间。Reddit社区在2020年增长了25.9%</blockquote> US social network user growth, by platform 2020 &amp; 2021. Source:eMarketer<blockquote>2020年和2021年美国社交网络用户增长。来源：eMarketer</blockquote> Investors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.<blockquote>投资者应该能够观察到 Reddit 在 2020 年实现了非常显着的增长，其平台上的用户同比增长 25.9%，Marketer 还预计 Reddit 社区在 2021 年将增长 14.4%，达到 4330 万用户。我们认为，Reddit 越来越受欢迎，这将继续维持投资者对 GME 等模因股票的兴趣。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f886ecf993efe35532771c132d94a6a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Population distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau<blockquote>2019年美国人口分布，按世代划分。数据来源：美国人口普查局</blockquote> We believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.<blockquote>我们相信，Reddit 无疑受益于支撑数字化的长期驱动因素，这也导致了 Robinhood (HOOD) 等交易平台的显着增长和受欢迎程度，该平台 2020 年的平均年龄为 31 岁。根据2019年的人口普查，这使得Robinhood用户的平均年龄正好在千禧一代的年龄组内，千禧一代出生于1981年至1996年之间（25至40岁），占美国人口的21.97%。</blockquote> Importantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.<blockquote>重要的是，我们还可以观察到，千禧一代投资者对股票感兴趣，而这些股票并不是典型投资者应该持有的 “安全稳定 ”股票。从上文可以看出，我们认为估值并不是这些投资者最重要的考虑因素。</blockquote> According to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.<blockquote>根据 Apex Clearing 的一份报告，特斯拉（TSLA）在 21 年第一季度的千禧一代投资组合中持股最多，持股比例为 28.3%，我们认为投资者通常不会说这只股票便宜。AAPL 以 14.5% 的份额位居第二，而 GME 也以 5.2% 的份额位居前四，这支持了我们的观点，即千禧一代投资者的动机不仅仅是基本面和估值。</blockquote> Among the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.<blockquote>在千禧一代投资组合中的持股中，我们可以观察到许多其他例子，这些例子证实了这些投资者对优质股票的兴趣，例如英伟达 (NVDA)、AMC院线 (AMC) 等另一只模因股票、丘吉尔资本公司 (CCIV)，其第三大持股；蔚来（蔚来）、Palantir（PLTR），甚至 Square（SQ），我们认为投资者通常不会将这些股票归类为价值股。</blockquote> Therefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.<blockquote>因此，我们认为广大投资者群体需要明白，有大量且不断增长的投资者群体，他们对基本面和估值的理解和期望肯定与我们典型的估值模型所能解释的大相径庭。</blockquote> We think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.<blockquote>我们认为，这个市场肯定比我们所知道的要大得多，也复杂得多，只是不可能用同样的基本面分析和估值方法对 GME 这样的 meme 股票进行估值，然后说它们被高估了，老实说，我们认为这个过程在 meme 股票投资领域毫无意义。</blockquote> Analyzing the Reddit Opinion<blockquote>分析 Reddit 意见</blockquote> Individual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick<blockquote>截至 2 月 21 日，游戏驿站在美国、英国和加拿大做空后，Reddit 上个人投资者的看法（按年龄划分）。数据来源：布伦瑞克</blockquote> According to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.<blockquote>根据Brunswick的一项调查，我们可以观察到Reddit论坛作为投资者投资工具的重要性，尤其是在18-29岁年龄组的年轻投资者中。约 14% 的投资者 “相信 Reddit 是一种媒体替代品”，在年轻投资者中，这一比例甚至飙升至 31%。此外，相当比例（25%）的年轻投资者也参加了 GME 机会，而 20% 的年轻投资者认为 GME 活动 “代表了市场力量的根本性转移”。虽然这些观点可能属于少数投资者，但我们认为投资者的比例肯定大到足以引起一般投资界的惊讶，因此我们认为Reddit论坛的力量肯定是前进中不可忽视的力量。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3108c1a56bc4c6221a4d8297e018d3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Share of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick<blockquote>使用 Reddit 调查美国、英国和加拿大问题的机构投资者比例。数据来源：布伦瑞克</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72f250f4fe70ca9af575b6828bace0d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Average trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick<blockquote>美国、英国和加拿大机构投资者对 Reddit 的平均信任得分。数据来源：布伦瑞克</blockquote> We could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.<blockquote>即使在机构投资者中，我们也可以观察到 Reddit 的影响力越来越大，因为 27% 的机构投资者使用 Reddit 来 “调查问题”，尽管他们对该平台的信任度从 2019 年的平均得分 3.5 分明显下降到 2021 年的 2.0 分，但这一比例比前几年有了明显增加。我们认为，这表明机构投资者认为 Reddit 在一般投资界决策过程中的影响力越来越大，但与前面显示的个人投资者相比，他们并不认为这些论坛上发生的事情对他们 “发达 ”的过程有足够的意义。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a87f8665c27d127566189bd21a035158\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"591\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Institutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick<blockquote>机构投资者对 Reddit wallstreetbets 社区成员的态度。数据来源：布伦瑞克</blockquote> While 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.<blockquote>虽然 48% 的机构投资者认为 Redditors “可能会有短期影响力，但他们无法维持”，但 27% 的机构投资者对 Redditors 在投资者群体中的影响力产生了一些好奇，13% 的机构投资者对 Redditors 能够组建一支军队，击败华尔街一些最聪明的头脑的方式产生了某种形式的尊重。因此，我们毫不奇怪地发现，这些机构投资者中有 20% 对 Redditors 的 “市场操纵 ”感到沮丧。</blockquote> Looking Ahead<blockquote>展望未来</blockquote> Ownership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St<blockquote>所有权分解。来源：Simply Wall St</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1dd4930d00083121d28ea6d57285bc5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Institutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat<blockquote>机构所有权变更。资料来源：Marketbeat</blockquote> Moving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.<blockquote>展望未来，我们认为像 GME 这样的备忘录股票将继续在 Reddit 论坛上占据重要地位，并继续成为他们与街头抗争的 “旗舰 ”股票之一。散户投资者目前持有 GME 股票的最大份额，占总持股量的 45.1%。有趣的是，仍有相当一部分（36.4%）的机构投资者仍然持有 GME，其中包括 GME 的最大股东：贝莱德（Blackrock），该公司拥有 GME 12.36% 的股票。虽然 GME 在 21 年第二季度的机构资本大量流出 19.3 亿美元，但其股价仍远高于 2021 年第一个交易日 17.25 美元的收盘价。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a708e62291662e5d4e2bce79492dc93a\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"656\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Percentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat<blockquote>随着时间的推移做空的流通量百分比。资料来源：Marketbeat</blockquote> Importantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.<blockquote>重要的是，尽管空头流通量百分比已从 1 月份的 41.96% 大幅下降至 6 月底的 “仅 ”14.18%，这是 2021 年两周以来最低的记录，但价格仍在持续。</blockquote> Other than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.<blockquote>除了 45.1% 的散户投资者持有 GME 股票外，瑞安-科恩（Ryan Cohen）还持有 12.13% 的股份，这使他成为 GME 股票的第二大股东，仅次于贝莱德（Blackrock），尽管他在 12 月 20 日购买的最后一批 127.4 万股股票的价格约为 14.24 美元，如果考虑到 GME 的最新收盘价 178.85 美元，这无疑给了他巨大的安全边际。</blockquote> Price Action and Trend Analysis<blockquote>价格行为和趋势分析</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5e54ac5cfe6504ec07c334a8c52668\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView<blockquote>来源：TradingView</blockquote> Ever since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.<blockquote>自从我们在年初目睹的狂热以来，GME 已经稳定下来，似乎已经形成了上升趋势，支撑位在之前的 130 美元至 160 美元价格水平之间吸引了强烈的买入兴趣。根据我们的价格行为分析，我们预计买家将继续强力捍卫这一水平。对于热衷于持有 GME 头寸的投资者，我们认为他们可能会考虑在我们强调的买入范围内进行入场。</blockquote> While we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:<blockquote>斯坦汉姆资产管理公司（Stenham Asset Management）表示，虽然我们确信游戏驿站的价格波动可能会继续下去，但我们认为该股在零售社区中引起了难以置信的巨大购买兴趣，这动摇了机构投资者的基础：</blockquote> \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.” In GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.<blockquote>“在当前环境下，如果你不衡量和管理你在人群和散户兴趣方面的空头风险，你就是在疏忽，”我们认为，一家价值数十亿美元的美国对冲基金也简洁地总结了 Reddit 社区日益增长的影响力： “[我们]绝对会关注 WSB 等论坛，我们正在密切关注。”在游戏驿站，我们认为这场比赛肯定还远未结束。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441170-gamestop-the-game-is-far-from-over","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107345366","content_text":"Summary\n\nGameStop has revamped itself to progressively move towards to become a major e-commerce player.\nWe think the company may possibly be at an inflection point, if the management team is able to successfully execute its new e-commerce pivot.\nIn addition, we exhort the bears to pay special attention to the Reddit community, given its growing user base and influence in their investors' decision-making process.\nWhile we don't have a position in GameStop, we don't think the game is over for the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nThe speculation fervor behind GameStop’s (GME) meteoric rise to the stratospheric levels of $480 per share last seen in Jan has subsided significantly, as the stock last traded at the $178 price level, a 63% decline from the ATH reached during the January mania.\nWhile we agree to a large extent with the Street’s valuation opinion, that this stock seems to be significantly overvalued (The Street’s mean target price is $37.5), we would also like to highlight that we don’t think we presently have a valuation model that can comprehensively incorporate the underlying factors driving the company’s stock price, and therefore would not boldly proclaim to investors who have an interest in meme stocks, to stay away from GME.\nWe thinkeMarketerdelineated in this recent piece in June, what factors they thought could have driven the underlying demand behind meme stocks in Reddit forums like GME:\n\n Punishing short sellers. Clover Health (CLOV) short-sellers, who believed the stock was overvalued, were down $438 million in mark-to-market losses. GameStop short sellers lost over $5 billion.Perplexing the markets “for the memes”—i.e., it’s just funny. Reddit posts on r/WallStreetBets highlight how members make seemingly irrational investment decisions for the joy of duping financial institutions.Pump and dump. The artificially inflated share prices can maximize profit for the lucky few who invest early.\n\nWe think investors who have been schooled in fundamental analysis would never be able to develop models that could fully factor in the above, as these investors think the long term value of stocks are driven by the long term strength and the competitive moat of their underlying businesses, but not with the \"ludicrous\" methods adopted by the Redditors in the way they analyze stocks.\nIn this article, we dive deeper to look at the key fundamental drivers underpinning GME's business, and how we think the Reddit community's participation and influence in meme stocks like GME would continue to disrupt the valuation outlook for the company moving forward.\nWhat Has Changed for GameStop since the January Mania?\nGME recently appointed2 key veteranexecutives from Amazon (AMZN): Matt Furlong and Mike Recupero as its CEO and CFO, respectively, as part of Chairman Ryan Cohen's strategic revamp of GME's business model to pivot towards becoming a major \"e-commerce powerhouse.\"\nWhile the guidance from the new management may have been sparse so far, the team has certainly gotten down to work quickly, to put in place the necessary building blocks to gradually move GME into a major e-commerce player, as they have started to expand itsfulfillment centers, with two new recent facilities in Reno, Nevada and York, Pennsylvania, that have given the company a total capacity of more than 1.2M square feet.\nRyan Cohen has also made it clear that the company wouldn't be specifying intricate details on its overhaul plans to its competitors, but instead appealing to investors to judge the team on their actions, as he emphasized:\n\n You won’t find ustalking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition...We have a lot of work in front of us. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions -- not our words.\n\nHowever, the Street was hardly convinced with Ryan Cohen or the company’s strategy, asWedbush Securitiesarticulated recently: “I think it got away from him. I think his ego’s gotten in the way and now he's going to prove [to] everybody [that he] knows what he's doing. If there [was] a strategy, it's shocking that he hasn't told us. We were supposed to hear about this five months ago. What is such a secret?”\nQuarterly revenues. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nLTM revenue. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe that the company seems to have been able to arrest the declining trend in its revenue in Q4'21 and Q1'22 (GME defines its FY differently from its CY), which took place well before the new management was in place. The company's Q4'21 revenue of $2.12B was its strong quarter over the last 3 years, while Q1'22's revenue grew 25% YoY. Therefore, when we plotted it over an LTM basis, we think that there's hope over the horizon, that perhaps the new management team may have an encouraging start, in the company's quest to become an important e-commerce competitor. We think investors should continue monitoring this space closely, especially on the build-up of the company's fulfillment centers, which is highly integral towards its e-commerce ambitions.\nLTM EBIT margins trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhile the company's EBIT margin trend has certainly been of major concern, we think this is an area certainly worth watching, as yet again we observed an improvement in the LTM trend, as the company posted an LTM EBIT margin of -3.5% in Q1'22, as compared to its LTM EBIT margin of -4.9% in Q4'21. While we don't think the company is out of the woods yet, but we think the company may have stopped the rot, at least for now.\nDebt to Equity Ratio. Source:Simply Wall St\nLTM Levered FCF margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nThe company has also astutely capitalized on its share price to completetwo equity offeringsto buttress its balance sheet. As a result, the company's debt to equity ratio has improved significantly to 5.5%, with a debt balance of just $48.1M, while having a cash and ST investments balance of $694.7M (as of 1 May 21, before both equity offerings which raised a total of $1.677B, and before paring down of debt). In addition, the company has also never really been bleeding cash, as its levered FCF margins trend has always been relatively healthy while having also improved its LTM levered FCF margin at the recent quarter to 1.6%.\nTherefore, we think GME looks well-positioned to take advantage of its strategic overhaul towards its new e-commerce pivot if the management can successfully execute moving forward. While we are not too sure at this point on the roadmap ahead for GME, the Reddit community seems to be ready to continue supporting this company, as we shall go into detail how the Reddit community would continue to be a highly important force to be reckoned with, in their quest to bolster the stock price of the company, such that even Ryan Cohen made it a point to pay a special tribute to the Reddit community:\n\n We’re fortunateto have such a special group of investors holding the company’s shares, you guys inspire us to think bigger, fight harder and work longer each day.\n\nThe Reddit Community Grew by 25.9% in 2020\nUS social network user growth, by platform 2020 & 2021. Source:eMarketer\nInvestors should be able to observe that Reddit posted highly remarkable growth in 2020, as users on its platform grew by 25.9% YoY, andeMarketeralso expects the Reddit community to grow by 14.4% in 2021, to reach 43.3M users. We think the increasing popularity towards the adoption of Reddit would continue to sustain investors' interest in meme stocks like GME, moving forward.\nPopulation distribution in the US in 2019, by generation. Data source: US Census Bureau\nWe believe that Reddit has certainly benefited from the secular drivers underpinning digitization, which has also led to significant growth and popularity in trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), where theaverage agein 2020 is 31 years old. This puts the average age of Robinhood users right within the age group of the Millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996 (25 to 40 years old), and accounted for 21.97% of the US population, based on the 2019 census.\nImportantly, we could also observe that Millennial investors are interested in stocks that are not the “safe and steady” stocks that a typical investor is expected to hold if I could put it that way. We don’t think valuations form the most important considerations to these investors as we could observe from the above.\nAccording to a report byApex Clearing, Tesla (TSLA) formed the largest holdings of their Millennials portfolio in Q1’21, with a 28.3% share, a stock that we think investors would not typically say it’s cheap. While AAPL was the second-largest holding with a 14.5% share, GME also rounded up the top 4 with a 5.2% share, lending support to our opinion that Millennial investors’ motivations are driven by factors beyond just fundamentals and valuations.\nAmong the holdings in the Millennials portfolio, we could observe many other examples that corroborate these investors' interests in premium stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA), another meme stock like AMC Entertainment (AMC), Churchill Capital Corp (CCIV), its third-largest holding; Nio (NIO), Palantir (PLTR), and even Square (SQ), stocks we think investors would not typically ascribe as value stocks.\nTherefore, we think the general investor community needs to understand that there’s a huge and growing base of investors whose understanding and expectations of fundamentals and valuations are certainly quite different from what our typical valuation models could account for.\nWe think the market is definitely bigger and much more complex than what we know, and it’s just not possible to use the same fundamental analysis and valuation methods to value meme stocks like GME and say that they are way overvalued, a process that we honestly think is quite meaningless in the world of meme stocks investment.\nAnalyzing the Reddit Opinion\nIndividual investors’ opinion on Reddit after GameStop short squeeze in the US, UK, and Canada as of Feb 21, by age. Data source:Brunswick\nAccording to a survey by Brunswick, we could observe the importance of the Reddit forums as an investment tool for investors, especially among the younger investors within the age group of 18-29 years old. About 14% of all investors “trust Reddit as a media alternative,” and the share even shot up to 31% among the younger investors. In addition, a good proportion (25%) of the younger investors also took part in the GME opportunities, while 20% of them think that the GME events “represent a fundamental shift of power in the market.” While these opinions may belong within the minority of investors, we think the proportion of investors is certainly large enough to raise the eyebrows of the general investment community, and therefore we think the power of the Reddit forums is certainly a force to be reckoned with moving ahead.\nShare of institutional investors using Reddit to investigate an issue in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nAverage trust score assigned by institutional investors to Reddit in the US, UK, and Canada. Data source: Brunswick\nWe could observe Reddit’s increasing influence even among institutional investors, as 27% of them used Reddit to “investigate an issue”, which increased discernibly from the previous years, even though their trust in the platform dropped markedly from an average score of 3.5 in 2019 to 2.0 in 2021. We think this shows that institutional investors consider Reddit’s increasing influence in the general investment community’s decision-making process, but they don’t trust those things going on in those forums as meaningful enough for their \"well-developed\" processes, as compared to individual investors shown earlier.\nInstitutional investors' attitude towards members of the Reddit wallstreetbets community. Data source: Brunswick\nWhile 48% of institutional investors think that the Redditors “might have a short term influence, but they won’t be able to sustain it,” 27% developed some curiosity regarding Reddit influence among the investors’ community, and 13% of them developed some form of respect for the way the Redditors were able to amass an army to outgun some of Wall Street’s brightest minds. We were therefore not surprised to find that 20% of these institutional investors were frustrated with what they considered as “market manipulation” by the Redditors.\nLooking Ahead\nOwnership breakdown. Source:Simply Wall St\nInstitutional ownership changes. Source:Marketbeat\nMoving forward, we think meme stocks like GME would continue to feature prominently within the Reddit forums and remain one of their “flagship” stocks in their fight against the Street. Retail investors now hold the largest share of ownership of GME stock, accounting for 45.1% of total ownership. Interestingly, there’s still a sizable proportion (36.4%) of institutional investors that remain vested in GME, which includes GME’s largest shareholder: Blackrock, which owns 12.36% of GME stock. While GME witnessed a significant outflow of $1.93B of institutional capital in Q2’21, the stock price remained well above the closing price of $17.25, on the first trading day of 2021.\nPercentage of float shorted over time. Source:Marketbeat\nImportantly, the price continues to be sustained even though the short percentage of float has dropped significantly from 41.96% in Jan, to “just” 14.18% at the end of June, its lowest recorded two-week period in 2021.\nOther than the 45.1% of retail investors who are vested in GME, the stock is also supported by Ryan Cohen’s 12.13% share, which makes him the second-largest shareholder of GME stock, behind Blackrock, even though the purchase price for his last batch of 1.274M shares in Dec 20 is about $14.24, which certainly gives him a huge margin of safety if we consider GME’s last closing price of $178.85.\nPrice Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nEver since the mania we witnessed at the start of the year, GME has settled down and seems to have developed an uptrend bias, with a support level that has attracted strong buying interest between the $130 and $160 price level previously. It is a level that we expect the buyers to continue defending strongly, based on our price action analysis. For investors who are keen to take a position in GME, we think they may consider an entry within that buy range that we highlighted.\nWhile we are convinced that the volatility in GameStop’s price is likely to continue moving ahead, we think the stock has incredibly found huge buying interest among the retail community that has shaken the foundations of the institutional investors, asStenham Asset Managementarticulated:\n\n \"In the current environment, you are being negligent if you don’t measure and manage your exposure on the short side to both crowding and retail interest,\" and we think one of the multibillion-dollar US hedge fund also succinctly summed up the rising influence of the Reddit community: “[We] are absolutely looking at forums such as WSB, we are monitoring that extremely closely.”\n\nIn GameStop, we think the game is certainly far from being over.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":770,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/177882229"}