风中独行
2023-06-04
8'.冖。
。’’Me🔥·’∞
UP Fintech Holding Ltd 1Q23 Review: Fundamentals Improving Despite Rectification<blockquote>老虎证券控股有限公司2023年第一季度回顾：尽管整改，基本面仍在改善</blockquote>
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As of end-1Q23, TIGR had around 48% of paying clients from Singapore with average client assets of US$15,000, up from US$13,000 in 4Q22. CAC was down 37% QoQ to US$171, mainly helped by more moderate marketing campaign amid volatile market. Execution and clearing expenses as a percentage of commission income declined to 9.6% in 1Q23 (vs 16.1% in 4Q22) helped by HK stocks’ self-clearing. TIGR reiterates its 2023 target of 100,000 new paying clients with CAC increased to US$300 in 2Q23 amid increasing marketing campaign in Hong Kong. In 2Q23 QTD, TIGR sees its trading volume, client assets and new paying clients down QoQ, with a flattish MFSL balance, following the weaker market sentiment since 1Q23.</p><p><blockquote><strong>2023年第一季度受益于美国股市反弹。</strong>老虎证券(TIGR)在2023年第一季度获得了30,392名新付费客户，环比增长11.2%，其中新加坡贡献了60%，美国20%，澳大利亚/新西兰15%，香港5%。截至2023年第一季度末，TIGR约48%的付费客户来自新加坡，平均客户资产为15,000美元，高于2022年第四季度的13,000美元。CAC环比下降37%至171美元，主要得益于市场波动中更加温和的营销活动。受惠于港股的自动结算，2023年第一季度的执行及结算开支佔佣金收入的百分比下降至9.6%（2022年第四季度为16.1%）。TIGR重申2023年新增10万付费客户的目标，随着香港营销活动的加强，2023年第二季度CAC增至300美元。在2023年第二季度季度，TIGR预计其交易量、客户资产和新付费客户环比下降，MFSL余额持平，原因是自2023年第一季度以来市场情绪疲软。</blockquote></p><p><strong>China regulatory uncertainties should be close to the end.</strong> Management noted that China regulators clarified some guidelines lately: 1) onshore investors who live or work overseas are allowed to open new accounts with TIGR, 2) onshore investors who prove to have an offshore brokerage account will be considered as existing clients and could open new accounts and transfer their existing securities to TIGR, 3) TIGR is allowed to keep its supporting team and R&D facilities in mainland China to serve existing onshore investors, and 4) TIGR app is removed from China app store to ensure no other onshore clients apart from the aforementioned scenarios. TIGR reiterated that the removal of its app in China does not affect existing clients as it provides detailed instructions on app download and updates. In 1Q23, total client assets of onshore clients increased by 10% QoQ with continued net asset inflows, indicating high client stickiness for TIGR.</p><p><blockquote><strong>中国监管的不确定性应该已接近尾声。</strong>管理层注意到，中国监管机构最近澄清了一些指导方针：1）允许在海外生活或工作的境内投资者在TIGR开设新账户，2）证明拥有离岸经纪账户的境内投资者将被视为现有客户，可以开设新账户并将其现有证券转让给TIGR，3）允许TIGR保留其在中国大陆的支持团队和研发设施，为现有在岸投资者提供服务，4）从中国应用商店中删除TIGR应用程序，以确保除上述情况外没有其他在岸客户。TIGR重申，其在中国的应用程序下架不会影响现有客户，因为它提供了有关应用程序下载和更新的详细说明。在2023年第一季度，在岸客户总资产环比增长10%，净资产持续流入，表明TIGR的客户粘性较高。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Maintain HOLD and lower TP to US$3.26.</strong> We raise our forecasts for 2023E-25E non-GAAP net income by 9%-16% as we: 1) increase MFSL balance by 5%-6%; 2) lower S&M expense by 21%-24%; and 3) increase client assets by 10%; which together offset our 3%-4% cut in stock trading volume. However, we lower our target price to US$3.26 from US$3.46 with a lower target 2023E P/E multiple of 17.0x (previously 20.0x), below -0.5 SD of its past three years’ average 12-month forward P/E, to reflect a slower 2023E-25E earnings CAGR of 16.8% (previously 20.4%), implying 1.0x PEG. We expect TIGR’s share price to be range-bound until it shows strong client acquisition and trading volume in HK.</p><p><blockquote><strong>维持持有并将目标价下调至3.26美元。</strong>我们将2023年至25年非GAAP净利润预测上调9%-16%，因为我们：1)将MFSL余额增加5%-6%；2)S&M费用降低21%-24%；以及3)将客户资产增加10%；这些共同抵消了我们股票交易量3%-4%的下降。然而，我们将目标价从3.46美元下调至3.26美元，2023年目标市盈率较低，为17.0倍（此前为20.0倍），低于过去三年平均12个月远期市盈率的-0.5 SD，以反映2023年至25年盈利复合年增长率放缓至16.8%（之前为20.4%），意味着PEG为1.0倍。我们预计TIGR的股价将保持区间波动，直到其在香港表现出强劲的客户获取和交易量。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Key risks include:</strong> Upside – improved stock market sentiment; faster overseas expansion. Downside – further market downturn and reduced retail investor participation; slower expansion overseas.</p><p><blockquote><strong>主要风险包括：</strong>上行——股市情绪改善；更快的海外扩张。不利因素——市场进一步低迷，散户投资者参与减少；海外扩张放缓。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6c42bbec6e02fdac646386cdba1349f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1146\" tg-height=\"345\"></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>1Q23 results review</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a31b05a3015e5746a1d153d354e18d5a\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"745\"></p><p><blockquote><h2>2023年第一季度结果回顾</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Estimate revisions</h2>We raise our forecasts for 2023E/ 24E/ 25E non-GAAP net income by 16%/ 15%/ 9% as we: 1) increase our forecasts for MFSL balance by 5%-6%; 2) lower marketing and branding expense forecasts by 21%-24%; and 3) increase client assets forecast by 10%; offsetting 4) our 3%-4% cut in stock trading volume forecasts.</p><p><blockquote><h2>估计数订正</h2>我们将2023E/24E/25E非GAAP净利润预测上调16%/15%/9%，因为我们：1)将MFSL余额预测上调5%-6%；2)将营销和品牌费用预测降低21%-24%；以及3)将客户资产预测提高10%；抵消4）我们股票交易量预测下调3%-4%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc64e83933a1f1f55c45283e9f06f05c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"830\"></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Valuation</h2><strong>Maintain HOLD and lower target price to US$3.26.</strong> We lower our target price to US$3.26 from US$3.46 based on a new target 2023E P/E multiple of 17.0x (previously 20.0x), below -0.5 SD of its past three years’ average 12-month forward P/E. We lower our target P/E multiple to reflect a 2023E-25E earnings CAGR of 16.8%, implying 1.0x PEG. We expect TIGR’s share price to be range-bound until it shows strong client acquisition and trading volume in Hong Kong. Thus, we keep our HOLD rating.</p><p><blockquote><h2>估值</h2><strong>维持持有，目标价下调至3.26美元。</strong>基于新的2023年目标市盈率17.0倍（之前为20.0倍），我们将目标价从3.46美元下调至3.26美元，低于过去三年平均12个月远期市盈率的-0.5 SD。我们降低了目标市盈率，以反映2023年至25年16.8%的盈利复合年增长率，这意味着1.0倍PEG。我们预计TIGR的股价将保持区间波动，直到其在香港表现出强劲的客户获取和交易量。因此，我们维持持有评级。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Potential share price catalysts</strong> include: 1) removal of regulatory overhang; 2) higher-than-expected number of new paying customers; and 3) an increase in client assets and trading volume driving up commission income.</p><p><blockquote><strong>潜在的股价催化剂</strong>包括：1)去除调节突出物；2）新增付费客户数量高于预期；以及3）客户资产和交易量的增加推动佣金收入。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc1e26cad07c6c6953fc30fa5c1d17b9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1163\" tg-height=\"555\"></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5531ae32b8efa43bbc8702eef6209e18\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1585\" tg-height=\"609\"></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p>Using paying customer lifetime value (CLV) as a cross-check for TIGR’s valuation, we calculate its fair value at US$13.16 – assuming 892,000 paying customers in 4Q23E, 2% churn rate per quarter, ARPU of US$316 per quarter, gross margin of 72%, customer acquisition costs (CAC) per paying client of US$366, and a discount rate of 13%. As CAC would be a one-time cost, the number of paying customers, ARPU, churn rate and gross margin are the key variables affecting TIGR’s valuation. The difference between the derived fair value and our target price of US$3.26 is that we do not consider operating costs in this approach. Since TIGR has not yet reached a level to benefit from economies of scale, any decline in revenue with less room to save on operating costs would weigh on its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>使用付费客户终身价值(CLV)作为TIGR估值的交叉检查，我们计算出其公允价值为13.16美元——假设2023年第4季度有892,000名付费客户，每季度流失率为2%，每季度ARPU为316美元，毛利率为72%，每个付费客户的客户获取成本(CAC)为366美元，折扣率为13%。由于CAC是一次性成本，付费客户数量、ARPU、流失率和毛利率是影响TIGR估值的关键变量。得出的公允价值与我们的目标价3.26美元之间的差异在于我们在此方法中不考虑运营成本。由于TIGR尚未达到从规模经济中受益的水平，任何收入下降而节省运营成本的空间较小，都会对其盈利造成压力。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/339d650e2f85cb5ccfd191af957cc5f0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"803\"></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Risks</h2>Upside risks include:</p><p><blockquote><h2>风险</h2>上行风险包括：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Improved stock market sentiment. If economic recovery comes faster than we expect, market sentiment could improve, leading to growth in trading turnover and margin finance balances for TIGR. This could lead to faster paying customer growth and increases in commission, financing service and interest income.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股市情绪改善。如果经济复苏快于我们预期，市场情绪可能会改善，从而导致TIGR的交易量和保证金融资余额增长。这可能会导致付费客户更快增长以及佣金、融资服务和利息收入的增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li><li>Faster international business development. If the international expansion of TIGR’s business, especially in HK, is more successful than we expect in terms of growth of the client base, retention and activation rate of current clients, and shorter payback period, TIGR could enjoy above-forecast growth in commission and interest income.</p><p><blockquote><li>更快的国际业务发展。如果TIGR业务的国际扩张（尤其是在香港）在客户群增长、现有客户的保留率和激活率以及较短的投资回收期方面比我们预期的更成功，TIGR的佣金和利息收入可能会有高于预期的增长。</li></blockquote></p><p></li><li>Better-than-expected efficiency improvement in self-clearing HK stocks. We expect self-clearing capabilities in the HK market to help TIGR manage its operating costs in an effective manner. Establishing a smooth and stable self-clearing process in HK could help TIGR to save more costs, leading to a higher profit margin.</p><p><blockquote><li>港股自结算效率改善好于预期。我们预期香港市场的自动结算功能将有助TIGR有效管理其营运成本。在香港建立一个顺畅稳定的自我清算流程可以帮助TIGR节省更多成本，从而提高利润率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li></ul>Downside risks include:</p><p><blockquote>下行风险包括：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Market downturn and reduced participation by retail investors. TIGR’s business is highly correlated with securities market performance and, if the markets in which it is active take a downward turn and retail investors are discouraged from investing, slower paying customer growth, lower trading turnover and lower margin finance balances could be the result.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场低迷，散户参与减少。TIGR的业务与证券市场表现高度相关，如果其活跃的市场出现下滑，散户投资者不愿投资，可能会导致付费客户增长放缓、交易量下降和保证金融资余额下降。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li><li>Slower-than-expected market expansion. If market expansion in Australia and HK does not proceed at the pace expected by management, user growth may be lower than we expect and would negatively affect our earnings growth forecasts for TIGR.</p><p><blockquote><li>市场扩张慢于预期。如果澳大利亚和香港的市场扩张没有按照管理层预期的速度进行，用户增长可能会低于我们的预期，并将对我们对TIGR的盈利增长预测产生负面影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li><li>Intensifying competition. More aggressive pricing competition on commission rates and margin financing rates from other online brokers may affect TIGR’s pricing strategy and impact its market share. This could lead to lower-than-expected user growth and a lower profit margin.</p><p><blockquote><li>竞争加剧。来自其他在线经纪商的佣金率和保证金融资率更激进的定价竞争可能会影响TIGR的定价策略并影响其市场份额。这可能导致用户增长低于预期和利润率下降。</li></blockquote></p><p></li><li>Delisting risk. TIGR’s own ADSs may be prohibited from trading in the over-the-counter market under the US Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA), if the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) is unable to inspect or fully investigate audited accounts of companies headquartered in China for two consecutive years.</p><p><blockquote><li>退市风险。如果上市公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）连续两年无法检查或全面调查总部位于中国的公司的经审计账目，TIGR自己的ADS可能被禁止在美国《外国公司问责法案》（HFCAA）下的场外市场交易。</li></blockquote></p><p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1bca331e0722aabce2f1a67c4c228d62\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"868\"></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UP Fintech Holding Ltd 1Q23 Review: Fundamentals Improving Despite Rectification<blockquote>老虎证券控股有限公司2023年第一季度回顾：尽管整改，基本面仍在改善</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUP Fintech Holding Ltd 1Q23 Review: Fundamentals Improving Despite Rectification<blockquote>老虎证券控股有限公司2023年第一季度回顾：尽管整改，基本面仍在改善</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-31 14:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul><li>Benefitting from US stock market rebound in 1Q23, TIGR enjoyed sequential growth in new paying clients with lower CAC.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>受益于2023年第一季度美股反弹，TIGR新增付费客户环比增长，CAC较低。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li><li>China regulators clarified guideline regarding the definition of onshore investors, suggesting regulatory overhang close to the end.</p><p><blockquote><li>中国监管机构澄清了有关境内投资者定义的指导方针，表明监管悬而未决已接近尾声。</li></blockquote></p><p></li><li>Reiterate HOLD and cut TP to US$3.26 (based on 17.0x 2023E P/E).</p><p><blockquote><li>重申持有并将目标价下调至3.26美元（基于17.0倍2023年预期市盈率）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li></ul><em>Source: China Renaissance</em></p><p><blockquote><em>资料来源：华兴资本</em></blockquote></p><p><strong>Benefit from US stock market rebound in 1Q23.</strong> UP Fintech (TIGR) acquired 30,392 new paying clients in 1Q23, up 11.2% QoQ, with Singapore contributing 60%, US 20%, AUS/NZ 15%, and Hong Kong 5%. As of end-1Q23, TIGR had around 48% of paying clients from Singapore with average client assets of US$15,000, up from US$13,000 in 4Q22. CAC was down 37% QoQ to US$171, mainly helped by more moderate marketing campaign amid volatile market. Execution and clearing expenses as a percentage of commission income declined to 9.6% in 1Q23 (vs 16.1% in 4Q22) helped by HK stocks’ self-clearing. TIGR reiterates its 2023 target of 100,000 new paying clients with CAC increased to US$300 in 2Q23 amid increasing marketing campaign in Hong Kong. In 2Q23 QTD, TIGR sees its trading volume, client assets and new paying clients down QoQ, with a flattish MFSL balance, following the weaker market sentiment since 1Q23.</p><p><blockquote><strong>2023年第一季度受益于美国股市反弹。</strong>老虎证券(TIGR)在2023年第一季度获得了30,392名新付费客户，环比增长11.2%，其中新加坡贡献了60%，美国20%，澳大利亚/新西兰15%，香港5%。截至2023年第一季度末，TIGR约48%的付费客户来自新加坡，平均客户资产为15,000美元，高于2022年第四季度的13,000美元。CAC环比下降37%至171美元，主要得益于市场波动中更加温和的营销活动。受惠于港股的自动结算，2023年第一季度的执行及结算开支佔佣金收入的百分比下降至9.6%（2022年第四季度为16.1%）。TIGR重申2023年新增10万付费客户的目标，随着香港营销活动的加强，2023年第二季度CAC增至300美元。在2023年第二季度季度，TIGR预计其交易量、客户资产和新付费客户环比下降，MFSL余额持平，原因是自2023年第一季度以来市场情绪疲软。</blockquote></p><p><strong>China regulatory uncertainties should be close to the end.</strong> Management noted that China regulators clarified some guidelines lately: 1) onshore investors who live or work overseas are allowed to open new accounts with TIGR, 2) onshore investors who prove to have an offshore brokerage account will be considered as existing clients and could open new accounts and transfer their existing securities to TIGR, 3) TIGR is allowed to keep its supporting team and R&D facilities in mainland China to serve existing onshore investors, and 4) TIGR app is removed from China app store to ensure no other onshore clients apart from the aforementioned scenarios. TIGR reiterated that the removal of its app in China does not affect existing clients as it provides detailed instructions on app download and updates. In 1Q23, total client assets of onshore clients increased by 10% QoQ with continued net asset inflows, indicating high client stickiness for TIGR.</p><p><blockquote><strong>中国监管的不确定性应该已接近尾声。</strong>管理层注意到，中国监管机构最近澄清了一些指导方针：1）允许在海外生活或工作的境内投资者在TIGR开设新账户，2）证明拥有离岸经纪账户的境内投资者将被视为现有客户，可以开设新账户并将其现有证券转让给TIGR，3）允许TIGR保留其在中国大陆的支持团队和研发设施，为现有在岸投资者提供服务，4）从中国应用商店中删除TIGR应用程序，以确保除上述情况外没有其他在岸客户。TIGR重申，其在中国的应用程序下架不会影响现有客户，因为它提供了有关应用程序下载和更新的详细说明。在2023年第一季度，在岸客户总资产环比增长10%，净资产持续流入，表明TIGR的客户粘性较高。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Maintain HOLD and lower TP to US$3.26.</strong> We raise our forecasts for 2023E-25E non-GAAP net income by 9%-16% as we: 1) increase MFSL balance by 5%-6%; 2) lower S&M expense by 21%-24%; and 3) increase client assets by 10%; which together offset our 3%-4% cut in stock trading volume. However, we lower our target price to US$3.26 from US$3.46 with a lower target 2023E P/E multiple of 17.0x (previously 20.0x), below -0.5 SD of its past three years’ average 12-month forward P/E, to reflect a slower 2023E-25E earnings CAGR of 16.8% (previously 20.4%), implying 1.0x PEG. We expect TIGR’s share price to be range-bound until it shows strong client acquisition and trading volume in HK.</p><p><blockquote><strong>维持持有并将目标价下调至3.26美元。</strong>我们将2023年至25年非GAAP净利润预测上调9%-16%，因为我们：1)将MFSL余额增加5%-6%；2)S&M费用降低21%-24%；以及3)将客户资产增加10%；这些共同抵消了我们股票交易量3%-4%的下降。然而，我们将目标价从3.46美元下调至3.26美元，2023年目标市盈率较低，为17.0倍（此前为20.0倍），低于过去三年平均12个月远期市盈率的-0.5 SD，以反映2023年至25年盈利复合年增长率放缓至16.8%（之前为20.4%），意味着PEG为1.0倍。我们预计TIGR的股价将保持区间波动，直到其在香港表现出强劲的客户获取和交易量。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Key risks include:</strong> Upside – improved stock market sentiment; faster overseas expansion. Downside – further market downturn and reduced retail investor participation; slower expansion overseas.</p><p><blockquote><strong>主要风险包括：</strong>上行——股市情绪改善；更快的海外扩张。不利因素——市场进一步低迷，散户投资者参与减少；海外扩张放缓。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e6c42bbec6e02fdac646386cdba1349f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1146\" tg-height=\"345\"></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>1Q23 results review</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a31b05a3015e5746a1d153d354e18d5a\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"745\"></p><p><blockquote><h2>2023年第一季度结果回顾</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Estimate revisions</h2>We raise our forecasts for 2023E/ 24E/ 25E non-GAAP net income by 16%/ 15%/ 9% as we: 1) increase our forecasts for MFSL balance by 5%-6%; 2) lower marketing and branding expense forecasts by 21%-24%; and 3) increase client assets forecast by 10%; offsetting 4) our 3%-4% cut in stock trading volume forecasts.</p><p><blockquote><h2>估计数订正</h2>我们将2023E/24E/25E非GAAP净利润预测上调16%/15%/9%，因为我们：1)将MFSL余额预测上调5%-6%；2)将营销和品牌费用预测降低21%-24%；以及3)将客户资产预测提高10%；抵消4）我们股票交易量预测下调3%-4%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc64e83933a1f1f55c45283e9f06f05c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"830\"></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Valuation</h2><strong>Maintain HOLD and lower target price to US$3.26.</strong> We lower our target price to US$3.26 from US$3.46 based on a new target 2023E P/E multiple of 17.0x (previously 20.0x), below -0.5 SD of its past three years’ average 12-month forward P/E. We lower our target P/E multiple to reflect a 2023E-25E earnings CAGR of 16.8%, implying 1.0x PEG. We expect TIGR’s share price to be range-bound until it shows strong client acquisition and trading volume in Hong Kong. Thus, we keep our HOLD rating.</p><p><blockquote><h2>估值</h2><strong>维持持有，目标价下调至3.26美元。</strong>基于新的2023年目标市盈率17.0倍（之前为20.0倍），我们将目标价从3.46美元下调至3.26美元，低于过去三年平均12个月远期市盈率的-0.5 SD。我们降低了目标市盈率，以反映2023年至25年16.8%的盈利复合年增长率，这意味着1.0倍PEG。我们预计TIGR的股价将保持区间波动，直到其在香港表现出强劲的客户获取和交易量。因此，我们维持持有评级。</blockquote></p><p><strong>Potential share price catalysts</strong> include: 1) removal of regulatory overhang; 2) higher-than-expected number of new paying customers; and 3) an increase in client assets and trading volume driving up commission income.</p><p><blockquote><strong>潜在的股价催化剂</strong>包括：1)去除调节突出物；2）新增付费客户数量高于预期；以及3）客户资产和交易量的增加推动佣金收入。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dc1e26cad07c6c6953fc30fa5c1d17b9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1163\" tg-height=\"555\"></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5531ae32b8efa43bbc8702eef6209e18\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1585\" tg-height=\"609\"></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p>Using paying customer lifetime value (CLV) as a cross-check for TIGR’s valuation, we calculate its fair value at US$13.16 – assuming 892,000 paying customers in 4Q23E, 2% churn rate per quarter, ARPU of US$316 per quarter, gross margin of 72%, customer acquisition costs (CAC) per paying client of US$366, and a discount rate of 13%. As CAC would be a one-time cost, the number of paying customers, ARPU, churn rate and gross margin are the key variables affecting TIGR’s valuation. The difference between the derived fair value and our target price of US$3.26 is that we do not consider operating costs in this approach. Since TIGR has not yet reached a level to benefit from economies of scale, any decline in revenue with less room to save on operating costs would weigh on its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>使用付费客户终身价值(CLV)作为TIGR估值的交叉检查，我们计算出其公允价值为13.16美元——假设2023年第4季度有892,000名付费客户，每季度流失率为2%，每季度ARPU为316美元，毛利率为72%，每个付费客户的客户获取成本(CAC)为366美元，折扣率为13%。由于CAC是一次性成本，付费客户数量、ARPU、流失率和毛利率是影响TIGR估值的关键变量。得出的公允价值与我们的目标价3.26美元之间的差异在于我们在此方法中不考虑运营成本。由于TIGR尚未达到从规模经济中受益的水平，任何收入下降而节省运营成本的空间较小，都会对其盈利造成压力。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/339d650e2f85cb5ccfd191af957cc5f0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"803\"></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Risks</h2>Upside risks include:</p><p><blockquote><h2>风险</h2>上行风险包括：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Improved stock market sentiment. If economic recovery comes faster than we expect, market sentiment could improve, leading to growth in trading turnover and margin finance balances for TIGR. This could lead to faster paying customer growth and increases in commission, financing service and interest income.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股市情绪改善。如果经济复苏快于我们预期，市场情绪可能会改善，从而导致TIGR的交易量和保证金融资余额增长。这可能会导致付费客户更快增长以及佣金、融资服务和利息收入的增加。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li><li>Faster international business development. If the international expansion of TIGR’s business, especially in HK, is more successful than we expect in terms of growth of the client base, retention and activation rate of current clients, and shorter payback period, TIGR could enjoy above-forecast growth in commission and interest income.</p><p><blockquote><li>更快的国际业务发展。如果TIGR业务的国际扩张（尤其是在香港）在客户群增长、现有客户的保留率和激活率以及较短的投资回收期方面比我们预期的更成功，TIGR的佣金和利息收入可能会有高于预期的增长。</li></blockquote></p><p></li><li>Better-than-expected efficiency improvement in self-clearing HK stocks. We expect self-clearing capabilities in the HK market to help TIGR manage its operating costs in an effective manner. Establishing a smooth and stable self-clearing process in HK could help TIGR to save more costs, leading to a higher profit margin.</p><p><blockquote><li>港股自结算效率改善好于预期。我们预期香港市场的自动结算功能将有助TIGR有效管理其营运成本。在香港建立一个顺畅稳定的自我清算流程可以帮助TIGR节省更多成本，从而提高利润率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li></ul>Downside risks include:</p><p><blockquote>下行风险包括：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Market downturn and reduced participation by retail investors. TIGR’s business is highly correlated with securities market performance and, if the markets in which it is active take a downward turn and retail investors are discouraged from investing, slower paying customer growth, lower trading turnover and lower margin finance balances could be the result.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场低迷，散户参与减少。TIGR的业务与证券市场表现高度相关，如果其活跃的市场出现下滑，散户投资者不愿投资，可能会导致付费客户增长放缓、交易量下降和保证金融资余额下降。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li><li>Slower-than-expected market expansion. If market expansion in Australia and HK does not proceed at the pace expected by management, user growth may be lower than we expect and would negatively affect our earnings growth forecasts for TIGR.</p><p><blockquote><li>市场扩张慢于预期。如果澳大利亚和香港的市场扩张没有按照管理层预期的速度进行，用户增长可能会低于我们的预期，并将对我们对TIGR的盈利增长预测产生负面影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li><li>Intensifying competition. More aggressive pricing competition on commission rates and margin financing rates from other online brokers may affect TIGR’s pricing strategy and impact its market share. This could lead to lower-than-expected user growth and a lower profit margin.</p><p><blockquote><li>竞争加剧。来自其他在线经纪商的佣金率和保证金融资率更激进的定价竞争可能会影响TIGR的定价策略并影响其市场份额。这可能导致用户增长低于预期和利润率下降。</li></blockquote></p><p></li><li>Delisting risk. TIGR’s own ADSs may be prohibited from trading in the over-the-counter market under the US Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA), if the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) is unable to inspect or fully investigate audited accounts of companies headquartered in China for two consecutive years.</p><p><blockquote><li>退市风险。如果上市公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）连续两年无法检查或全面调查总部位于中国的公司的经审计账目，TIGR自己的ADS可能被禁止在美国《外国公司问责法案》（HFCAA）下的场外市场交易。</li></blockquote></p><p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1bca331e0722aabce2f1a67c4c228d62\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"868\"></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185032253","content_text":"Benefitting from US stock market rebound in 1Q23, TIGR enjoyed sequential growth in new paying clients with lower CAC.China regulators clarified guideline regarding the definition of onshore investors, suggesting regulatory overhang close to the end.Reiterate HOLD and cut TP to US$3.26 (based on 17.0x 2023E P/E).Source: China RenaissanceBenefit from US stock market rebound in 1Q23. UP Fintech (TIGR) acquired 30,392 new paying clients in 1Q23, up 11.2% QoQ, with Singapore contributing 60%, US 20%, AUS/NZ 15%, and Hong Kong 5%. As of end-1Q23, TIGR had around 48% of paying clients from Singapore with average client assets of US$15,000, up from US$13,000 in 4Q22. CAC was down 37% QoQ to US$171, mainly helped by more moderate marketing campaign amid volatile market. Execution and clearing expenses as a percentage of commission income declined to 9.6% in 1Q23 (vs 16.1% in 4Q22) helped by HK stocks’ self-clearing. TIGR reiterates its 2023 target of 100,000 new paying clients with CAC increased to US$300 in 2Q23 amid increasing marketing campaign in Hong Kong. In 2Q23 QTD, TIGR sees its trading volume, client assets and new paying clients down QoQ, with a flattish MFSL balance, following the weaker market sentiment since 1Q23.China regulatory uncertainties should be close to the end. Management noted that China regulators clarified some guidelines lately: 1) onshore investors who live or work overseas are allowed to open new accounts with TIGR, 2) onshore investors who prove to have an offshore brokerage account will be considered as existing clients and could open new accounts and transfer their existing securities to TIGR, 3) TIGR is allowed to keep its supporting team and R&D facilities in mainland China to serve existing onshore investors, and 4) TIGR app is removed from China app store to ensure no other onshore clients apart from the aforementioned scenarios. TIGR reiterated that the removal of its app in China does not affect existing clients as it provides detailed instructions on app download and updates. In 1Q23, total client assets of onshore clients increased by 10% QoQ with continued net asset inflows, indicating high client stickiness for TIGR.Maintain HOLD and lower TP to US$3.26. We raise our forecasts for 2023E-25E non-GAAP net income by 9%-16% as we: 1) increase MFSL balance by 5%-6%; 2) lower S&M expense by 21%-24%; and 3) increase client assets by 10%; which together offset our 3%-4% cut in stock trading volume. However, we lower our target price to US$3.26 from US$3.46 with a lower target 2023E P/E multiple of 17.0x (previously 20.0x), below -0.5 SD of its past three years’ average 12-month forward P/E, to reflect a slower 2023E-25E earnings CAGR of 16.8% (previously 20.4%), implying 1.0x PEG. We expect TIGR’s share price to be range-bound until it shows strong client acquisition and trading volume in HK.Key risks include: Upside – improved stock market sentiment; faster overseas expansion. Downside – further market downturn and reduced retail investor participation; slower expansion overseas.1Q23 results reviewEstimate revisionsWe raise our forecasts for 2023E/ 24E/ 25E non-GAAP net income by 16%/ 15%/ 9% as we: 1) increase our forecasts for MFSL balance by 5%-6%; 2) lower marketing and branding expense forecasts by 21%-24%; and 3) increase client assets forecast by 10%; offsetting 4) our 3%-4% cut in stock trading volume forecasts.ValuationMaintain HOLD and lower target price to US$3.26. We lower our target price to US$3.26 from US$3.46 based on a new target 2023E P/E multiple of 17.0x (previously 20.0x), below -0.5 SD of its past three years’ average 12-month forward P/E. We lower our target P/E multiple to reflect a 2023E-25E earnings CAGR of 16.8%, implying 1.0x PEG. We expect TIGR’s share price to be range-bound until it shows strong client acquisition and trading volume in Hong Kong. Thus, we keep our HOLD rating.Potential share price catalysts include: 1) removal of regulatory overhang; 2) higher-than-expected number of new paying customers; and 3) an increase in client assets and trading volume driving up commission income.Using paying customer lifetime value (CLV) as a cross-check for TIGR’s valuation, we calculate its fair value at US$13.16 – assuming 892,000 paying customers in 4Q23E, 2% churn rate per quarter, ARPU of US$316 per quarter, gross margin of 72%, customer acquisition costs (CAC) per paying client of US$366, and a discount rate of 13%. As CAC would be a one-time cost, the number of paying customers, ARPU, churn rate and gross margin are the key variables affecting TIGR’s valuation. The difference between the derived fair value and our target price of US$3.26 is that we do not consider operating costs in this approach. Since TIGR has not yet reached a level to benefit from economies of scale, any decline in revenue with less room to save on operating costs would weigh on its earnings.RisksUpside risks include:Improved stock market sentiment. If economic recovery comes faster than we expect, market sentiment could improve, leading to growth in trading turnover and margin finance balances for TIGR. This could lead to faster paying customer growth and increases in commission, financing service and interest income.Faster international business development. If the international expansion of TIGR’s business, especially in HK, is more successful than we expect in terms of growth of the client base, retention and activation rate of current clients, and shorter payback period, TIGR could enjoy above-forecast growth in commission and interest income.Better-than-expected efficiency improvement in self-clearing HK stocks. We expect self-clearing capabilities in the HK market to help TIGR manage its operating costs in an effective manner. Establishing a smooth and stable self-clearing process in HK could help TIGR to save more costs, leading to a higher profit margin.Downside risks include:Market downturn and reduced participation by retail investors. TIGR’s business is highly correlated with securities market performance and, if the markets in which it is active take a downward turn and retail investors are discouraged from investing, slower paying customer growth, lower trading turnover and lower margin finance balances could be the result.Slower-than-expected market expansion. If market expansion in Australia and HK does not proceed at the pace expected by management, user growth may be lower than we expect and would negatively affect our earnings growth forecasts for TIGR.Intensifying competition. More aggressive pricing competition on commission rates and margin financing rates from other online brokers may affect TIGR’s pricing strategy and impact its market share. This could lead to lower-than-expected user growth and a lower profit margin.Delisting risk. TIGR’s own ADSs may be prohibited from trading in the over-the-counter market under the US Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA), if the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) is unable to inspect or fully investigate audited accounts of companies headquartered in China for two consecutive years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3404,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/183620830801976"}
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