JoshTan
2021-06-15
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Here’s what the market wants — and doesn’t want — to hear from Powell at this week’s Fed meeting<blockquote>以下是市场在本周美联储会议上希望和不希望听到鲍威尔的言论</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":187261786,"tweetId":"187261786","gmtCreate":1623755719145,"gmtModify":1634028953206,"author":{"id":3566284087239794,"idStr":"3566284087239794","authorId":3566284087239794,"authorIdStr":"3566284087239794","name":"JoshTan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fe467cbf014ef28af269640392df91a","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Pls like and comment</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Pls like and comment</p></body></html>","text":"Pls like and comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187261786","repostId":2142788371,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142788371","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623627985,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2142788371?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s what the market wants — and doesn’t want — to hear from Powell at this week’s Fed meeting<blockquote>以下是市场在本周美联储会议上希望和不希望听到鲍威尔的言论</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142788371","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"All eyes on the Fed!\n\"Alas, poor inflation! I knew him, Horatio.\" MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/GET","content":"<p>All eyes on the Fed!</p><p><blockquote>所有的目光都集中在美联储身上!</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c83a98ead1e0406f6e21bde6e1f550\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"><span>\"Alas, poor inflation! I knew him, Horatio.\" MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/GETTY IMAGES, EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>“唉，可怜的通货膨胀!我认识他，霍雷肖。”MARKETWATCH 照片插图/GETTY IMAGES，EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You couldn’t fault Wall Street for envisaging a bit of Hamlet in Jerome Powell at the Federal Open Market Committee’s June policy meeting this coming week:</p><p><blockquote>在下周举行的联邦公开市场委员会 6 月份政策会议上，华尔街设想了杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的一点哈姆雷特（Hamlet）：</blockquote></p><p> Transitory, or not transitory?</p><p><blockquote>短暂的，还是不短暂的？</blockquote></p><p> Therein lies the question that the interest rate-setting Fed committee needs to answer for financial markets on Wednesday, at the conclusion of the FOMC’s two-day gathering.</p><p><blockquote>这就是美联储利率制定委员会周三在为期两天的联邦公开市场委员会会议结束时需要为金融市场回答的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous inflation or to take arms against a sea of troubles, as Hamlet might have said if he had been a central bank governor.</p><p><blockquote>如果哈姆雷特是央行行长，他可能会说的那样，无论是忍受令人发指的通货膨胀的箭矢，还是拿起武器对抗麻烦的海洋，哪个更高尚。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one is expecting fireworks at this coming meeting but it could still proof a pivotal point for stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人预计即将到来的会议会有烟火，但它仍然可能证明股票和债券的关键点。</blockquote></p><p> That is especially true with the S&P 500 index,the Dow Jones Industrial Average,and the Nasdaq Composite Index,hovering at, or near, record closing highs.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数尤其如此，它们徘徊在或接近历史收盘高点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed meeting comes against the backdrop of growing evidence of pricing pressures building in the economy as it recovers from the COVID pandemic of the past year and vaccination rollouts allow businesses to return to some semblance of normality.</p><p><blockquote>美联储会议召开的背景是，越来越多的证据表明，随着经济从去年的新冠疫情中复苏，定价压力正在加大，疫苗接种的推出使企业恢复了某种正常状态。</blockquote></p><p> Last Thursday’s consumer-price index report from the U.S. Labor Department showed that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%, reflecting a broad increase in prices confronting Americans.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部上周四发布的消费者价格指数报告显示，5 月份生活成本飙升，将通胀率推至 5% 的 13 年来新高，反映出美国人面临的物价普遍上涨。</blockquote></p><p> “The critical question now is whether this elevated rate of inflation is ‘transitory’ or whether higher prices risk becoming psychologically entrenched,” wrote Matt Weller, global head of market research at Forex.com in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“Forex.com 全球市场研究主管马特-韦勒（Matt Weller）在周五的一份研究报告中写道：”现在的关键问题是，通货膨胀率的上升是'暂时的'，还是物价上涨有可能在心理上根深蒂固。</blockquote></p><p> The fixed-income market may already have had its say on inflation, with the yields on the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury bond hanging around their lowest levels since at least early March.</p><p><blockquote>固定收益市场可能已经对通胀有了发言权，10年期国债和30年期国债收益率徘徊在至少3月初以来的最低水平附近。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury and stock-market investors are viewing the surge in inflation as fostered by supply chain distortions as consumers splurge after the pandemic, along with statistical base effects as last year’s falling prices drop out of the annual calculations, and therefore likely to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>美国国债和股市投资者认为，通胀飙升是由于大流行病过后消费者挥霍无度，导致供应链扭曲，以及去年物价下跌从年度计算中剔除的统计基数效应，因此很可能转瞬即逝。</blockquote></p><p> Is isn’t clear exactly however what transitory means — months, years ? How long are elevated levels of inflation to be tolerated before market participants and the Fed lose patience with inflation that undermines asset prices?</p><p><blockquote>然而，暂时性究竟是什么意思--几个月、几年？在市场参与者和美联储对破坏资产价格的通胀失去耐心之前，还要容忍高通胀水平多久？</blockquote></p><p> “Going forward to the end of 2021 and into 2022, policy makers continue to expect inflation to subside back down nearer their 2% objective, is a message the Committee is likely to reiterate at next week’s meeting,” wrote Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>“展望 2021 年底和 2022 年，政策制定者继续预计通胀率将回落至接近 2% 的目标，委员会可能会在下周的会议上重申这一信息，”Stifel 首席经济学家林赛-皮耶扎（Lindsey Piegza）在周五的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> “That being said, the U.S. economy is clearly gaining momentum, with the labor market adding more than 500,000 jobs a month. Therefore, while no policy adjustment is expected in June, nor an announcement of a timeline for an eventual adjustment to policy, at least some Fed members are expected to push for a discussion in the coming months regarding an eventual rollback of emergency measures,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管如此，美国经济的势头显然正在增强，劳动力市场每月新增就业岗位超过 50 万个。因此，虽然预计 6 月份不会进行政策调整，也不会宣布最终调整政策的时间表，但预计至少一些美联储成员将在未来几个月内推动讨论最终撤销紧急措施的问题，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> Some traders, analysts and economists are betting the Fed will aim to articulate the view that the tapering of its $120 billion a month purchase of assets, implemented during the worst of the pandemic, will begin by towards the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>一些交易员、分析师和经济学家押注，美联储将致力于阐明这样一种观点，即在疫情最严重时期实施的每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买将于 2021 年底开始缩减。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed may talk about talking about tapering in June and by August or September begin the work toward a roll back.</p><p><blockquote>美联储可能会在6月份讨论缩减规模，并在8月或9月开始缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> In the face of rising inflation, the timing of any tapering looks tricky for the U.S. central bank since the recovery in the labor market still looks shaky, relative to the the demand for workers, and is reflected in the weaker-than-expected May nonfarm payrolls report and the job openings data from last week which hit a record 9.3 million.</p><p><blockquote>面对不断上升的通胀，美国央行任何缩减规模的时机看起来都很棘手，因为相对于工人需求，劳动力市场的复苏看起来仍然不稳定，这反映在弱于预期的5月份非农就业报告和上周的职位空缺数据中。创纪录的930万个。</blockquote></p><p> Lawrence Gillum, fixed-income strategist for LPL Financial, said that the key thing the market wants to here is the timing of the Fed’s tapering. He also noted the tapering of the central bank’s $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities in particular will be important because the housing market is widely viewed as overheated.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial 的固定收益策略师劳伦斯-吉勒姆（Lawrence Gillum）说，市场希望看到的关键在于美联储缩减规模的时机。他还指出，中央银行缩减 400 亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券尤为重要，因为人们普遍认为房地产市场过热。</blockquote></p><p> “The main thing we’d like to hear next week is how and when the Fed plans to reduce its bond purchase programs,” Gillum said.</p><p><blockquote>“吉勒姆说：”下周我们最希望听到的是美联储计划如何以及何时减少债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> “Additionally, why the Fed continues to buy $40 billion in mortgage securities every month when the housing market, by all accounts, doesn’t need that support. Will we get that clarity? Probably not,” he offered.</p><p><blockquote>“此外，为什么美联储每月继续购买 400 亿美元的抵押贷款证券，而从各方面来看，房地产市场并不需要这种支持？我们会明白吗？可能不会，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday report, said that in that context, he still expects policy makers to convey a go-slow approach to any scaling back of monetary accommodation.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)美国高级经济学家安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunter)在周五的一份报告中表示，在这种背景下，他仍然预计政策制定者将对任何缩减货币宽松措施采取缓慢的态度。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “While we suspect that Fed officials may finally begin ‘talking about talking about’ tapering their asset purchases at next week’s FOMC meeting, they are likely to emphasize that the economy is still some way from making ‘substantial further progress’ towards their goals,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”虽然我们怀疑美联储官员可能最终会在下周的联邦公开市场委员会会议上开始'谈论'缩减资产购买规模，但他们很可能会强调，经济距离实现他们的目标'取得实质性进一步进展'还有一段距离。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Peter Essele, head of investment management for Commonwealth Financial Network said the market may need to hear more dovishness from Fed officials, even as they circumnavigate the notion of scaling back easy-money policies.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，联邦金融网络投资管理主管彼得·埃塞尔表示，市场可能需要听到美联储官员更多鸽派言论，即使他们绕过缩减宽松货币政策的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “Market participants are clearly expecting a dovish tone from the Fed next week, as evidenced by the recent path of interest rates,” Essele told MarketWatch in emailed comments.</p><p><blockquote>“埃塞尔在电子邮件评论中告诉 MarketWatch：”市场参与者显然预计美联储下周将采取鸽派基调，最近的利率走势就证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect the Fed will keep its foot on the accommodative pedal next week, which won’t change until inflation is no longer transitory and the economy is back to full employment,” Essele said.</p><p><blockquote>“埃塞尔说：”我们预计美联储下周将继续采取宽松政策，在通胀不再是暂时性的、经济恢复充分就业之前，这一政策不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> “Until then, Treasury rates should remain range-bound on the long end and anchored on the short end, offering bond investors little to worry about in the near term,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”在此之前，国债利率应保持在长端区间，短端锚定，债券投资者在短期内无需担心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else is on investors’ radar?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者还关注什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the only other main item on the docket for next week is U.S. May retail sales on Tuesday, while investors continue to watch negotiations between the Biden administration and Republicans on an infrastructure spending plan, given it has implications for economic growth and debt issuance.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，下周唯一的另一个主要项目是周二的美国5月份零售销售，而投资者继续关注拜登政府和共和党人之间关于基础设施支出计划的谈判，因为该计划对经济增长和债务发行有影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s what the market wants — and doesn’t want — to hear from Powell at this week’s Fed meeting<blockquote>以下是市场在本周美联储会议上希望和不希望听到鲍威尔的言论</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 07:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>All eyes on the Fed!</p><p><blockquote>所有的目光都集中在美联储身上!</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c83a98ead1e0406f6e21bde6e1f550\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"><span>\"Alas, poor inflation! I knew him, Horatio.\" MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/GETTY IMAGES, EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>“唉，可怜的通货膨胀!我认识他，霍雷肖。”MARKETWATCH 照片插图/GETTY IMAGES，EVERETT COLLECTION</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You couldn’t fault Wall Street for envisaging a bit of Hamlet in Jerome Powell at the Federal Open Market Committee’s June policy meeting this coming week:</p><p><blockquote>在下周举行的联邦公开市场委员会 6 月份政策会议上，华尔街设想了杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的一点哈姆雷特（Hamlet）：</blockquote></p><p> Transitory, or not transitory?</p><p><blockquote>短暂的，还是不短暂的？</blockquote></p><p> Therein lies the question that the interest rate-setting Fed committee needs to answer for financial markets on Wednesday, at the conclusion of the FOMC’s two-day gathering.</p><p><blockquote>这就是美联储利率制定委员会周三在为期两天的联邦公开市场委员会会议结束时需要为金融市场回答的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous inflation or to take arms against a sea of troubles, as Hamlet might have said if he had been a central bank governor.</p><p><blockquote>如果哈姆雷特是央行行长，他可能会说的那样，无论是忍受令人发指的通货膨胀的箭矢，还是拿起武器对抗麻烦的海洋，哪个更高尚。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, no one is expecting fireworks at this coming meeting but it could still proof a pivotal point for stocks and bonds.</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有人预计即将到来的会议会有烟火，但它仍然可能证明股票和债券的关键点。</blockquote></p><p> That is especially true with the S&P 500 index,the Dow Jones Industrial Average,and the Nasdaq Composite Index,hovering at, or near, record closing highs.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数尤其如此，它们徘徊在或接近历史收盘高点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed meeting comes against the backdrop of growing evidence of pricing pressures building in the economy as it recovers from the COVID pandemic of the past year and vaccination rollouts allow businesses to return to some semblance of normality.</p><p><blockquote>美联储会议召开的背景是，越来越多的证据表明，随着经济从去年的新冠疫情中复苏，定价压力正在加大，疫苗接种的推出使企业恢复了某种正常状态。</blockquote></p><p> Last Thursday’s consumer-price index report from the U.S. Labor Department showed that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%, reflecting a broad increase in prices confronting Americans.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部上周四发布的消费者价格指数报告显示，5 月份生活成本飙升，将通胀率推至 5% 的 13 年来新高，反映出美国人面临的物价普遍上涨。</blockquote></p><p> “The critical question now is whether this elevated rate of inflation is ‘transitory’ or whether higher prices risk becoming psychologically entrenched,” wrote Matt Weller, global head of market research at Forex.com in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“Forex.com 全球市场研究主管马特-韦勒（Matt Weller）在周五的一份研究报告中写道：”现在的关键问题是，通货膨胀率的上升是'暂时的'，还是物价上涨有可能在心理上根深蒂固。</blockquote></p><p> The fixed-income market may already have had its say on inflation, with the yields on the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury bond hanging around their lowest levels since at least early March.</p><p><blockquote>固定收益市场可能已经对通胀有了发言权，10年期国债和30年期国债收益率徘徊在至少3月初以来的最低水平附近。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury and stock-market investors are viewing the surge in inflation as fostered by supply chain distortions as consumers splurge after the pandemic, along with statistical base effects as last year’s falling prices drop out of the annual calculations, and therefore likely to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>美国国债和股市投资者认为，通胀飙升是由于大流行病过后消费者挥霍无度，导致供应链扭曲，以及去年物价下跌从年度计算中剔除的统计基数效应，因此很可能转瞬即逝。</blockquote></p><p> Is isn’t clear exactly however what transitory means — months, years ? How long are elevated levels of inflation to be tolerated before market participants and the Fed lose patience with inflation that undermines asset prices?</p><p><blockquote>然而，暂时性究竟是什么意思--几个月、几年？在市场参与者和美联储对破坏资产价格的通胀失去耐心之前，还要容忍高通胀水平多久？</blockquote></p><p> “Going forward to the end of 2021 and into 2022, policy makers continue to expect inflation to subside back down nearer their 2% objective, is a message the Committee is likely to reiterate at next week’s meeting,” wrote Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>“展望 2021 年底和 2022 年，政策制定者继续预计通胀率将回落至接近 2% 的目标，委员会可能会在下周的会议上重申这一信息，”Stifel 首席经济学家林赛-皮耶扎（Lindsey Piegza）在周五的一份报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> “That being said, the U.S. economy is clearly gaining momentum, with the labor market adding more than 500,000 jobs a month. Therefore, while no policy adjustment is expected in June, nor an announcement of a timeline for an eventual adjustment to policy, at least some Fed members are expected to push for a discussion in the coming months regarding an eventual rollback of emergency measures,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管如此，美国经济的势头显然正在增强，劳动力市场每月新增就业岗位超过 50 万个。因此，虽然预计 6 月份不会进行政策调整，也不会宣布最终调整政策的时间表，但预计至少一些美联储成员将在未来几个月内推动讨论最终撤销紧急措施的问题，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> Some traders, analysts and economists are betting the Fed will aim to articulate the view that the tapering of its $120 billion a month purchase of assets, implemented during the worst of the pandemic, will begin by towards the end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>一些交易员、分析师和经济学家押注，美联储将致力于阐明这样一种观点，即在疫情最严重时期实施的每月 1200 亿美元的资产购买将于 2021 年底开始缩减。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed may talk about talking about tapering in June and by August or September begin the work toward a roll back.</p><p><blockquote>美联储可能会在6月份讨论缩减规模，并在8月或9月开始缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> In the face of rising inflation, the timing of any tapering looks tricky for the U.S. central bank since the recovery in the labor market still looks shaky, relative to the the demand for workers, and is reflected in the weaker-than-expected May nonfarm payrolls report and the job openings data from last week which hit a record 9.3 million.</p><p><blockquote>面对不断上升的通胀，美国央行任何缩减规模的时机看起来都很棘手，因为相对于工人需求，劳动力市场的复苏看起来仍然不稳定，这反映在弱于预期的5月份非农就业报告和上周的职位空缺数据中。创纪录的930万个。</blockquote></p><p> Lawrence Gillum, fixed-income strategist for LPL Financial, said that the key thing the market wants to here is the timing of the Fed’s tapering. He also noted the tapering of the central bank’s $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities in particular will be important because the housing market is widely viewed as overheated.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial 的固定收益策略师劳伦斯-吉勒姆（Lawrence Gillum）说，市场希望看到的关键在于美联储缩减规模的时机。他还指出，中央银行缩减 400 亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券尤为重要，因为人们普遍认为房地产市场过热。</blockquote></p><p> “The main thing we’d like to hear next week is how and when the Fed plans to reduce its bond purchase programs,” Gillum said.</p><p><blockquote>“吉勒姆说：”下周我们最希望听到的是美联储计划如何以及何时减少债券购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> “Additionally, why the Fed continues to buy $40 billion in mortgage securities every month when the housing market, by all accounts, doesn’t need that support. Will we get that clarity? Probably not,” he offered.</p><p><blockquote>“此外，为什么美联储每月继续购买 400 亿美元的抵押贷款证券，而从各方面来看，房地产市场并不需要这种支持？我们会明白吗？可能不会，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday report, said that in that context, he still expects policy makers to convey a go-slow approach to any scaling back of monetary accommodation.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)美国高级经济学家安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunter)在周五的一份报告中表示，在这种背景下，他仍然预计政策制定者将对任何缩减货币宽松措施采取缓慢的态度。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “While we suspect that Fed officials may finally begin ‘talking about talking about’ tapering their asset purchases at next week’s FOMC meeting, they are likely to emphasize that the economy is still some way from making ‘substantial further progress’ towards their goals,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”虽然我们怀疑美联储官员可能最终会在下周的联邦公开市场委员会会议上开始'谈论'缩减资产购买规模，但他们很可能会强调，经济距离实现他们的目标'取得实质性进一步进展'还有一段距离。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Peter Essele, head of investment management for Commonwealth Financial Network said the market may need to hear more dovishness from Fed officials, even as they circumnavigate the notion of scaling back easy-money policies.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，联邦金融网络投资管理主管彼得·埃塞尔表示，市场可能需要听到美联储官员更多鸽派言论，即使他们绕过缩减宽松货币政策的想法。</blockquote></p><p> “Market participants are clearly expecting a dovish tone from the Fed next week, as evidenced by the recent path of interest rates,” Essele told MarketWatch in emailed comments.</p><p><blockquote>“埃塞尔在电子邮件评论中告诉 MarketWatch：”市场参与者显然预计美联储下周将采取鸽派基调，最近的利率走势就证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect the Fed will keep its foot on the accommodative pedal next week, which won’t change until inflation is no longer transitory and the economy is back to full employment,” Essele said.</p><p><blockquote>“埃塞尔说：”我们预计美联储下周将继续采取宽松政策，在通胀不再是暂时性的、经济恢复充分就业之前，这一政策不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> “Until then, Treasury rates should remain range-bound on the long end and anchored on the short end, offering bond investors little to worry about in the near term,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”在此之前，国债利率应保持在长端区间，短端锚定，债券投资者在短期内无需担心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else is on investors’ radar?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者还关注什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the only other main item on the docket for next week is U.S. May retail sales on Tuesday, while investors continue to watch negotiations between the Biden administration and Republicans on an infrastructure spending plan, given it has implications for economic growth and debt issuance.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，下周唯一的另一个主要项目是周二的美国5月份零售销售，而投资者继续关注拜登政府和共和党人之间关于基础设施支出计划的谈判，因为该计划对经济增长和债务发行有影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-market-wants-and-doesnt-want-to-hear-from-powell-at-next-weeks-fed-meeting-11623452360?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-market-wants-and-doesnt-want-to-hear-from-powell-at-next-weeks-fed-meeting-11623452360?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142788371","content_text":"All eyes on the Fed!\n\"Alas, poor inflation! I knew him, Horatio.\" MARKETWATCH PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/GETTY IMAGES, EVERETT COLLECTION\nYou couldn’t fault Wall Street for envisaging a bit of Hamlet in Jerome Powell at the Federal Open Market Committee’s June policy meeting this coming week:\nTransitory, or not transitory?\nTherein lies the question that the interest rate-setting Fed committee needs to answer for financial markets on Wednesday, at the conclusion of the FOMC’s two-day gathering.\nWhether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous inflation or to take arms against a sea of troubles, as Hamlet might have said if he had been a central bank governor.\nOf course, no one is expecting fireworks at this coming meeting but it could still proof a pivotal point for stocks and bonds.\nThat is especially true with the S&P 500 index,the Dow Jones Industrial Average,and the Nasdaq Composite Index,hovering at, or near, record closing highs.\nThe Fed meeting comes against the backdrop of growing evidence of pricing pressures building in the economy as it recovers from the COVID pandemic of the past year and vaccination rollouts allow businesses to return to some semblance of normality.\nLast Thursday’s consumer-price index report from the U.S. Labor Department showed that the cost of living surged in May and drove the pace of inflation to a 13-year high of 5%, reflecting a broad increase in prices confronting Americans.\n“The critical question now is whether this elevated rate of inflation is ‘transitory’ or whether higher prices risk becoming psychologically entrenched,” wrote Matt Weller, global head of market research at Forex.com in a Friday research note.\nThe fixed-income market may already have had its say on inflation, with the yields on the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury bond hanging around their lowest levels since at least early March.\nTreasury and stock-market investors are viewing the surge in inflation as fostered by supply chain distortions as consumers splurge after the pandemic, along with statistical base effects as last year’s falling prices drop out of the annual calculations, and therefore likely to be fleeting.\nIs isn’t clear exactly however what transitory means — months, years ? How long are elevated levels of inflation to be tolerated before market participants and the Fed lose patience with inflation that undermines asset prices?\n“Going forward to the end of 2021 and into 2022, policy makers continue to expect inflation to subside back down nearer their 2% objective, is a message the Committee is likely to reiterate at next week’s meeting,” wrote Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel in a Friday note.\n“That being said, the U.S. economy is clearly gaining momentum, with the labor market adding more than 500,000 jobs a month. Therefore, while no policy adjustment is expected in June, nor an announcement of a timeline for an eventual adjustment to policy, at least some Fed members are expected to push for a discussion in the coming months regarding an eventual rollback of emergency measures,” she said.\nSome traders, analysts and economists are betting the Fed will aim to articulate the view that the tapering of its $120 billion a month purchase of assets, implemented during the worst of the pandemic, will begin by towards the end of 2021.\nThe Fed may talk about talking about tapering in June and by August or September begin the work toward a roll back.\nIn the face of rising inflation, the timing of any tapering looks tricky for the U.S. central bank since the recovery in the labor market still looks shaky, relative to the the demand for workers, and is reflected in the weaker-than-expected May nonfarm payrolls report and the job openings data from last week which hit a record 9.3 million.\nLawrence Gillum, fixed-income strategist for LPL Financial, said that the key thing the market wants to here is the timing of the Fed’s tapering. He also noted the tapering of the central bank’s $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities in particular will be important because the housing market is widely viewed as overheated.\n“The main thing we’d like to hear next week is how and when the Fed plans to reduce its bond purchase programs,” Gillum said.\n“Additionally, why the Fed continues to buy $40 billion in mortgage securities every month when the housing market, by all accounts, doesn’t need that support. Will we get that clarity? Probably not,” he offered.\nAndrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday report, said that in that context, he still expects policy makers to convey a go-slow approach to any scaling back of monetary accommodation.\n“While we suspect that Fed officials may finally begin ‘talking about talking about’ tapering their asset purchases at next week’s FOMC meeting, they are likely to emphasize that the economy is still some way from making ‘substantial further progress’ towards their goals,” he said.\nIndeed, Peter Essele, head of investment management for Commonwealth Financial Network said the market may need to hear more dovishness from Fed officials, even as they circumnavigate the notion of scaling back easy-money policies.\n“Market participants are clearly expecting a dovish tone from the Fed next week, as evidenced by the recent path of interest rates,” Essele told MarketWatch in emailed comments.\n“We expect the Fed will keep its foot on the accommodative pedal next week, which won’t change until inflation is no longer transitory and the economy is back to full employment,” Essele said.\n“Until then, Treasury rates should remain range-bound on the long end and anchored on the short end, offering bond investors little to worry about in the near term,” he said.\nWhat else is on investors’ radar?\nMeanwhile, the only other main item on the docket for next week is U.S. May retail sales on Tuesday, while investors continue to watch negotiations between the Biden administration and Republicans on an infrastructure spending plan, given it has implications for economic growth and debt issuance.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/187261786"}
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