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2021-05-10

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Inflation: Will It Stay or Will It Go?<blockquote>通货膨胀：它会留下来还是会消失？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":190210805,"tweetId":"190210805","gmtCreate":1620622482307,"gmtModify":1634197601024,"author":{"id":3565498354917609,"idStr":"3565498354917609","authorId":3565498354917609,"authorIdStr":"3565498354917609","name":"小虎仁","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>like and comment</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>like and comment</body></html>","text":"like and comment","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190210805","repostId":1112136236,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112136236","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620616606,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112136236?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-10 11:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation: Will It Stay or Will It Go?<blockquote>通货膨胀：它会留下来还是会消失？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112136236","media":"thestreet","summary":"Will inflation prove a bump in the road of higher economic growth, or will it transform into a monst","content":"Will inflation prove a bump in the road of higher economic growth, or will it transform into a monster that will run out of control, eventually taking rates up with it?<blockquote>通货膨胀会被证明是经济更高增长道路上的一个障碍，还是会变成一个失控的怪物，最终导致利率上升？</blockquote>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powellis saying publicly he views rising prices as \"transitory,\" butothers aren't so sure-- as costs of raw materials like&nbsp;lumberand steel rise, the value of used cars climb, computerchipssee a supply squeeze, restaurants reopen, and oil appears to make a comeback.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔斯公开表示，他认为价格上涨是“暂时的”，但其他人则不太确定——随着木材和钢铁等原材料成本上涨、二手车价值攀升、计算机芯片供应紧张、餐馆重新开业、石油似乎卷土重来。</blockquote>\"These things are all quite distorted by the pandemic and by the reopening following the pandemic,\"Capital Economics' economist Jennifer McKeown&nbsp;toldTheStreetduring a recent phone call.<blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)经济学家詹妮弗·麦基翁(Jennifer McKeown)表示：“这些事情都被大流行和大流行后的重新开放严重扭曲了。”街道在最近的一次电话看涨期权中。</blockquote>TheStreetspoke about inflation with&nbsp;McKeown, who&nbsp;is the head of the Global Economics Service at Capital Economics, and who had previously worked for five years at the Bank of England.<blockquote>街道与凯投宏观(Capital Economics)全球经济服务主管麦克欧文(McKeown)谈论了通货膨胀问题，他此前曾在英格兰银行工作过五年。</blockquote>Here the London-based economist discusses rising prices, how much to expect they will go up and whether they could prove permanent, how the Fed might react, and what to watch as we track&nbsp;the consumer price index, or CPI, that basket of goods that includes costs of a variety of consumer products and services, like energy, food, transportation and medical care. All of these areas are now seeing different price trends, after more than a year of a raging pandemic, lockdowns, social distancing, work-from-home policies, stimulus spending and, now, signs of recovery.<blockquote>在这里，这位伦敦经济学家讨论了价格上涨、预计价格会上涨多少以及价格是否会被证明是永久性的、美联储可能会如何反应，以及在我们跟踪消费者价格指数（CPI）（一篮子商品）时应该注意什么包括各种消费品和服务的成本，如能源、食品、交通和医疗保健。经过一年多的疫情肆虐、封锁、社交距离、在家工作政策、刺激支出以及现在的复苏迹象，所有这些地区现在都出现了不同的价格趋势。</blockquote>The following has been lightly edited for clarity and brevity.<blockquote>为了清晰和简洁，以下内容略有编辑。</blockquote>TheStreet:A big real estate investor,Sam Zell, recently said he sees similarities to inflation of the 1970s. It seems hard to see how that is possible….<blockquote>街道：大型房地产投资者萨姆·泽尔(Sam Zell)最近表示，他认为这与20世纪70年代的通货膨胀有相似之处。似乎很难看出这是怎么可能的…</blockquote>McKeown:So we’re expecting some inflation … but like 2.5% or 3%, not 5% to 10%, not the kind of 1970s-type rates. For that to happen, you probably would need less competition -- less global competition -- and you’d need to have stronger unions -- stronger institutions -- that would bid up wages. Also, demographically, we’re in a very different position now from the one we were in during the 1970s. ... While we are looking at a probable rise in inflation in the U.S., it’s not going to be anything like in the 1970s.<blockquote>麦基翁：所以我们预计会有一些通货膨胀……但像2.5%或3%，而不是5%到10%，不是20世纪70年代那种利率。要做到这一点，你可能需要更少的竞争——更少的全球竞争——你需要更强大的工会——更强大的机构——这将提高工资。此外，从人口统计学上来说，我们现在的处境与20世纪70年代非常不同。...虽然我们看到美国通胀可能会上升，但不会像20世纪70年代那样。</blockquote>TheStreet:Now, there’s a debate over whether inflation is transitory or not. We’ve seen several headlines just this past week arguing one way or the other and some are looking at lumber prices and other raw materials costs. Are you able to give some perspective on that, at least on inflation in the U.S.?<blockquote>街道：现在，关于通货膨胀是否是暂时的存在争论。就在过去的一周，我们已经看到了几个头条新闻，以这样或那样的方式争论，有些人正在关注木材价格和其他原材料成本。你能对此发表一些看法吗，至少是关于美国的通货膨胀？</blockquote>McKeown:The effects related to lumber and to steel, which has risen very sharply, those should prove transient.… They’ve risen so high already, that they should be due to come back a bit. One issue in metals, for instance, is that steel production in the U.S. is still relatively depressed. It takes a very long time for it to come back on stream after the kinds of lockdowns and closures that we’ve had. So, it’s not that surprising that we see increases in prices, but those should come off.<blockquote>麦基翁：与木材和钢铁相关的影响已经大幅上涨，这些应该证明是暂时的。…他们已经涨到这么高了，应该会回来一点。例如，金属领域的一个问题是美国的钢铁产量仍然相对低迷。在经历了各种封锁和关闭之后，它需要很长时间才能恢复正常。因此，我们看到价格上涨并不奇怪，但这些价格应该会下降。</blockquote>The big question, though, is not whether these commodity prices go up and up and up, but their impact on prices and on manufacturers’ costs. We are starting to see in business surveys that show manufacturers are starting to say that they have had a very sharp increase in their costs, and they’re starting to pass that through to consumers. The question is whether those price increases start to generate other price increases, and, in particular, do they start to play a role in wages?<blockquote>然而，最大的问题不是这些大宗商品价格是否会不断上涨，而是它们对价格和制造商成本的影响。我们开始在商业调查中看到，制造商开始表示他们的成本急剧增加，并开始将其转嫁给消费者。问题是这些价格上涨是否开始产生其他价格上涨，特别是它们是否开始在工资中发挥作用？</blockquote>Even a temporary rise in commodity prices can have an effect on wages, if people are seeing those high bills – whether it be on fuel or food&nbsp;–&nbsp;and then demand higher wages because of it. And then, whether the labor market is in a strong enough position to grant those wage increases.<blockquote>如果人们看到这些高额账单——无论是燃料还是食品——然后因此要求更高的工资，即使是大宗商品价格的暂时上涨也会对工资产生影响。然后，劳动力市场是否处于足够强大的地位来批准这些工资增长。</blockquote>So, that is the big question now. What we’re seeing is that in the U.S., there are some signs over growing wage pressure and there are some signs of labor shortages, which would be expected to generate some wage pressure. But outside the U.S. – in Europe, for example – that is not the case. The risk of sustained inflation is much higher in the U.S. than in Europe.<blockquote>所以，这是现在的大问题。我们看到的是，在美国，有一些工资压力不断增长的迹象，也有一些劳动力短缺的迹象，预计这将产生一些工资压力。但在美国以外——例如在欧洲——情况并非如此。美国持续通胀的风险远高于欧洲。</blockquote>TheStreet:Is it possible the pandemic could add to unknowns in employment that could affect inflation? For example, what if a significant number of people who were working in restaurants or retail or even teaching decide they want to change careers after a year of disruption?<blockquote>街道：疫情是否有可能增加就业中可能影响通胀的未知因素？例如，如果相当多在餐馆、零售甚至教学工作的人在经历了一年的混乱后决定转行，该怎么办？</blockquote>McKeown:It could, but it depends really on the extent of mismatch between the jobs people are wanting and the jobs that they are qualified to do – and the jobs that are available. If there are fewer people who want to work in restaurants, for example, then that is going to put further upward pressure on prices at a time when we know that capacity restraints are already boosting prices a bit. ...If there are also labor shortages, it would exacerbate what is already quite a difficult situation.<blockquote>麦基翁：有可能，但这实际上取决于人们想要的工作和他们有资格做的工作以及现有的工作之间的不匹配程度。例如，如果想在餐馆工作的人越来越少，那么在我们知道产能限制已经在一定程度上推高价格的时候，这将给价格带来进一步的上行压力。...如果也出现劳动力短缺，将加剧本已相当困难的局面。</blockquote>TheStreet:On that note, we’ve heard renewed calls to raise the minimum wage not so long ago. Whenever the idea of raising the minimum wage is brought up, you get pushback, with people saying it would raise inflation. Does it?<blockquote>街道：在这一点上，我们不久前听到了提高最低工资的新评级。每当提出提高最低工资的想法时，你都会遭到抵制，人们说这会提高通货膨胀。是吗？</blockquote>McKeown:Raising the minimum wage doesn’t necessarily lead to inflation. It’s a one-off increase. It would boost wages in a one-off way, which then would then drop out of the year-on-year comparisons in a year’s time – unless you’re in an environment where that shift in the minimum wage causes others to call for higher wages as well, and you end up in a wage-price spiral where everyone is bidding up their wages – and prices are going up at the same time. I think that’s the fear that that kind of thing could happen, but I’d say that there is little danger for an aggressive wage-price spiral in the U.S. at that this time. We’re in a very different place than say in the 1970s, when there was a very pronounced wage-price spiral and hyperinflation. That was driven by various factors, but mainly institutional ones: Unions were much stronger and there was much less global competition. An increase in the minimum wage would undoubtedly raise the average wages and boost inflation temporarily.<blockquote>麦基翁：提高最低工资不一定会导致通货膨胀。这是一次性增加。它将以一次性的方式提高工资，然后在一年后从同比比较中消失——除非你所处的环境是最低工资的变化导致其他人看涨期权也要求更高的工资，你最终会陷入工资-价格螺旋，每个人都在提高工资——而价格同时上涨。我认为这是对这种事情可能发生的担忧，但我想说，目前美国工资价格大幅螺旋式上升的危险很小。我们现在的处境与20世纪70年代截然不同，当时工资价格螺旋上升和恶性通货膨胀非常明显。这是由多种因素驱动的，但主要是制度性因素：工会要强大得多，全球竞争也少得多。提高最低工资无疑会提高平均工资，并暂时提振通胀。</blockquote>TheStreet:Let’s shift over to this idea of central banks’ role in what plays out. I saw an opinion piece recently that made the argument that central banks are not as concerned with inflation right now as they were in the past. What are your thoughts on that?<blockquote>街道：让我们转向央行在事态发展中所扮演角色的想法。我最近看到一篇观点文章，认为央行现在不像过去那样关心通胀。你对此有什么想法？</blockquote>McKeown:I do think that their priorities are changing. We’re coming, of course, from a position from where central banks in advanced economies were very single-mindedly focused on inflation – a decade ago it was very much on that one aspect. The Fed’s mandate has ... broadened … it’s now shifted to an average-inflation target from a point-inflation target, which gives it more flexibility and more ability to tolerate higher inflation for a limited period, if it believes it can bring it back down in the future. But it’s also broadened to considering the labor market more explicitly, and looking for an inclusive labor market recovery, which means it’s going to be looking for more than a fall in the unemployment rate, it wants it to affect all parts of the social spectrum. It’s starting to think about inequity a lot more and to consider allowing the economy to run a little hotter for a while in order to get everyone back … into employment. So there’s a lot more going on. So there’s a lot more going on with the Fed, and other central banks, too. The Bank of England is starting to think about climate change and the Reserve Bank of Zealand now has stabilizing house prices as a part of its mandate. There is pretty clear evidence that central banks’ sights are broadening and they may well be prepared to tolerate higher inflation for a period to pursue other goals.<blockquote>麦基翁：我确实认为他们的优先事项正在改变。当然，我们所处的位置是发达经济体的央行非常一心一意地关注通胀——十年前，这主要集中在这一个方面。美联储的任务是...扩大……它现在已从点通胀目标转向平均通胀目标，这使其具有更大的灵活性和更大的能力，可以在有限的时间内容忍较高的通胀，如果它相信未来可以将通胀回落的话。但它也扩大到更明确地考虑劳动力市场，并寻求包容性的劳动力市场复苏，这意味着它将寻求的不仅仅是失业率的下降，它希望它影响社会的所有部分。它开始更多地考虑不平等，并考虑让经济运行一段时间稍微热一点，以让每个人都回到就业岗位。所以还有很多事情要做。因此，美联储和其他央行也发生了更多事情。英格兰银行开始考虑气候变化，新西兰储备银行现在将稳定房价作为其任务的一部分。有相当明显的证据表明，央行的视野正在扩大，他们很可能准备在一段时间内容忍更高的通胀，以追求其他目标。</blockquote>TheStreet:We also have the rise in used car prices in the U.S. and we have other prices, like housing, that seem out of reach for many Americans. But not all of those are factored into current inflation calculations, right?<blockquote>街道：美国二手车价格也在上涨，还有其他价格，比如住房，这对许多美国人来说似乎遥不可及。但并非所有这些都考虑到了当前的通胀计算中，对吗？</blockquote>McKeown:Car prices are in there, as a part of the CPI, but they are a relatively small share. So, for a small family saving up to buy a car, it may seem like a bigger deal – a sharp increase in car prices – than it would appear from the relatively small share they are of the average CPI basket every year.<blockquote>麦基翁：汽车价格是CPI的一部分，但所占份额相对较小。因此，对于一个攒钱买车的小家庭来说，汽车价格大幅上涨似乎比他们每年在平均CPI篮子中所占份额相对较小的情况更重要。</blockquote>But houses, they are not explicitly factored into the CPI. Most statistics agencies will put some measure of rent, some measure … of the cost of housing services into the CPI, but no house costs directly. So, sharp increases in house prices won’t show up, and that’s one of the reasons why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been asked to explicitly target house prices. The government felt that the pure focus on CPI wasn’t enough to be able to help people to afford homes. Therefore it has tasked the central bank with tightening policy if need be, just to keep housing prices under control.<blockquote>但对于房屋，它们并没有明确计入CPI。大多数统计机构会将一定程度的租金、一定程度的住房服务成本纳入CPI，但不会直接计入住房成本。因此，房价的大幅上涨不会出现，这也是新西兰储备银行被要求明确瞄准房价的原因之一。政府认为，仅仅关注消费者物价指数不足以帮助人们买得起房子。因此，它责成央行在必要时收紧政策，只是为了控制房价。</blockquote>TheStreet:There’s seems to be an irony now – that the people who are ringing alarm bells about inflation right now seem to be those with the most, when aren’t they the least likely toreallybe affected by a 2.5% or 3% rise in costs? Someone who’s poorer or on a fixed income would be much more hurt by inflation, right?<blockquote>街道：现在似乎有一个讽刺——现在敲响通胀警钟的人似乎是那些拥有最多通胀的人，而他们不是最不可能拥有通胀的人吗？真的受到成本上涨2.5%或3%的影响？较贫穷或有固定收入的人会受到通货膨胀的伤害更大，对吗？</blockquote>McKeown:I’m sure that’s right. … A relatively small increase in prices in things that are completely essential like fuel could make a really difficult problem. What investors are thinking about when we talk about inflation is the probably that the Fed would respond with a sharp increase in the interest rates, that … could be a good or a bad thing. At this point, it doesn’t look like the Fed is going respond quickly to the rise inflation that we’ve seen. But that’s very much hinged on the idea that it’s transient, and I think that could change very quickly. I we were to see a significant uptick in wage growth, which would signal that the rise in inflation is going to be relatively sustained.<blockquote>麦基翁：我相信这是对的。……像燃料这样完全必需品的价格相对较小的上涨可能会成为一个非常困难的问题。当我们谈论通胀时，投资者想到的是美联储可能会大幅加息，这……可能是好事，也可能是坏事。目前，美联储似乎不会对我们所看到的通胀上升迅速做出反应。但这在很大程度上取决于它是短暂的这一想法，我认为这可能会很快改变。如果我们看到工资增长大幅上升，这将表明通胀上升将相对持续。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation: Will It Stay or Will It Go?<blockquote>通货膨胀：它会留下来还是会消失？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation: Will It Stay or Will It Go?<blockquote>通货膨胀：它会留下来还是会消失？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nthestreet2021-05-10 11:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWill inflation prove a bump in the road of higher economic growth, or will it transform into a monster that will run out of control, eventually taking rates up with it?<blockquote>通货膨胀会被证明是经济更高增长道路上的一个障碍，还是会变成一个失控的怪物，最终导致利率上升？</blockquote>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powellis saying publicly he views rising prices as \"transitory,\" butothers aren't so sure-- as costs of raw materials like&nbsp;lumberand steel rise, the value of used cars climb, computerchipssee a supply squeeze, restaurants reopen, and oil appears to make a comeback.<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔斯公开表示，他认为价格上涨是“暂时的”，但其他人则不太确定——随着木材和钢铁等原材料成本上涨、二手车价值攀升、计算机芯片供应紧张、餐馆重新开业、石油似乎卷土重来。</blockquote>\"These things are all quite distorted by the pandemic and by the reopening following the pandemic,\"Capital Economics' economist Jennifer McKeown&nbsp;toldTheStreetduring a recent phone call.<blockquote>凯投宏观(Capital Economics)经济学家詹妮弗·麦基翁(Jennifer McKeown)表示：“这些事情都被大流行和大流行后的重新开放严重扭曲了。”街道在最近的一次电话看涨期权中。</blockquote>TheStreetspoke about inflation with&nbsp;McKeown, who&nbsp;is the head of the Global Economics Service at Capital Economics, and who had previously worked for five years at the Bank of England.<blockquote>街道与凯投宏观(Capital Economics)全球经济服务主管麦克欧文(McKeown)谈论了通货膨胀问题，他此前曾在英格兰银行工作过五年。</blockquote>Here the London-based economist discusses rising prices, how much to expect they will go up and whether they could prove permanent, how the Fed might react, and what to watch as we track&nbsp;the consumer price index, or CPI, that basket of goods that includes costs of a variety of consumer products and services, like energy, food, transportation and medical care. All of these areas are now seeing different price trends, after more than a year of a raging pandemic, lockdowns, social distancing, work-from-home policies, stimulus spending and, now, signs of recovery.<blockquote>在这里，这位伦敦经济学家讨论了价格上涨、预计价格会上涨多少以及价格是否会被证明是永久性的、美联储可能会如何反应，以及在我们跟踪消费者价格指数（CPI）（一篮子商品）时应该注意什么包括各种消费品和服务的成本，如能源、食品、交通和医疗保健。经过一年多的疫情肆虐、封锁、社交距离、在家工作政策、刺激支出以及现在的复苏迹象，所有这些地区现在都出现了不同的价格趋势。</blockquote>The following has been lightly edited for clarity and brevity.<blockquote>为了清晰和简洁，以下内容略有编辑。</blockquote>TheStreet:A big real estate investor,Sam Zell, recently said he sees similarities to inflation of the 1970s. It seems hard to see how that is possible….<blockquote>街道：大型房地产投资者萨姆·泽尔(Sam Zell)最近表示，他认为这与20世纪70年代的通货膨胀有相似之处。似乎很难看出这是怎么可能的…</blockquote>McKeown:So we’re expecting some inflation … but like 2.5% or 3%, not 5% to 10%, not the kind of 1970s-type rates. For that to happen, you probably would need less competition -- less global competition -- and you’d need to have stronger unions -- stronger institutions -- that would bid up wages. Also, demographically, we’re in a very different position now from the one we were in during the 1970s. ... While we are looking at a probable rise in inflation in the U.S., it’s not going to be anything like in the 1970s.<blockquote>麦基翁：所以我们预计会有一些通货膨胀……但像2.5%或3%，而不是5%到10%，不是20世纪70年代那种利率。要做到这一点，你可能需要更少的竞争——更少的全球竞争——你需要更强大的工会——更强大的机构——这将提高工资。此外，从人口统计学上来说，我们现在的处境与20世纪70年代非常不同。...虽然我们看到美国通胀可能会上升，但不会像20世纪70年代那样。</blockquote>TheStreet:Now, there’s a debate over whether inflation is transitory or not. We’ve seen several headlines just this past week arguing one way or the other and some are looking at lumber prices and other raw materials costs. Are you able to give some perspective on that, at least on inflation in the U.S.?<blockquote>街道：现在，关于通货膨胀是否是暂时的存在争论。就在过去的一周，我们已经看到了几个头条新闻，以这样或那样的方式争论，有些人正在关注木材价格和其他原材料成本。你能对此发表一些看法吗，至少是关于美国的通货膨胀？</blockquote>McKeown:The effects related to lumber and to steel, which has risen very sharply, those should prove transient.… They’ve risen so high already, that they should be due to come back a bit. One issue in metals, for instance, is that steel production in the U.S. is still relatively depressed. It takes a very long time for it to come back on stream after the kinds of lockdowns and closures that we’ve had. So, it’s not that surprising that we see increases in prices, but those should come off.<blockquote>麦基翁：与木材和钢铁相关的影响已经大幅上涨，这些应该证明是暂时的。…他们已经涨到这么高了，应该会回来一点。例如，金属领域的一个问题是美国的钢铁产量仍然相对低迷。在经历了各种封锁和关闭之后，它需要很长时间才能恢复正常。因此，我们看到价格上涨并不奇怪，但这些价格应该会下降。</blockquote>The big question, though, is not whether these commodity prices go up and up and up, but their impact on prices and on manufacturers’ costs. We are starting to see in business surveys that show manufacturers are starting to say that they have had a very sharp increase in their costs, and they’re starting to pass that through to consumers. The question is whether those price increases start to generate other price increases, and, in particular, do they start to play a role in wages?<blockquote>然而，最大的问题不是这些大宗商品价格是否会不断上涨，而是它们对价格和制造商成本的影响。我们开始在商业调查中看到，制造商开始表示他们的成本急剧增加，并开始将其转嫁给消费者。问题是这些价格上涨是否开始产生其他价格上涨，特别是它们是否开始在工资中发挥作用？</blockquote>Even a temporary rise in commodity prices can have an effect on wages, if people are seeing those high bills – whether it be on fuel or food&nbsp;–&nbsp;and then demand higher wages because of it. And then, whether the labor market is in a strong enough position to grant those wage increases.<blockquote>如果人们看到这些高额账单——无论是燃料还是食品——然后因此要求更高的工资，即使是大宗商品价格的暂时上涨也会对工资产生影响。然后，劳动力市场是否处于足够强大的地位来批准这些工资增长。</blockquote>So, that is the big question now. What we’re seeing is that in the U.S., there are some signs over growing wage pressure and there are some signs of labor shortages, which would be expected to generate some wage pressure. But outside the U.S. – in Europe, for example – that is not the case. The risk of sustained inflation is much higher in the U.S. than in Europe.<blockquote>所以，这是现在的大问题。我们看到的是，在美国，有一些工资压力不断增长的迹象，也有一些劳动力短缺的迹象，预计这将产生一些工资压力。但在美国以外——例如在欧洲——情况并非如此。美国持续通胀的风险远高于欧洲。</blockquote>TheStreet:Is it possible the pandemic could add to unknowns in employment that could affect inflation? For example, what if a significant number of people who were working in restaurants or retail or even teaching decide they want to change careers after a year of disruption?<blockquote>街道：疫情是否有可能增加就业中可能影响通胀的未知因素？例如，如果相当多在餐馆、零售甚至教学工作的人在经历了一年的混乱后决定转行，该怎么办？</blockquote>McKeown:It could, but it depends really on the extent of mismatch between the jobs people are wanting and the jobs that they are qualified to do – and the jobs that are available. If there are fewer people who want to work in restaurants, for example, then that is going to put further upward pressure on prices at a time when we know that capacity restraints are already boosting prices a bit. ...If there are also labor shortages, it would exacerbate what is already quite a difficult situation.<blockquote>麦基翁：有可能，但这实际上取决于人们想要的工作和他们有资格做的工作以及现有的工作之间的不匹配程度。例如，如果想在餐馆工作的人越来越少，那么在我们知道产能限制已经在一定程度上推高价格的时候，这将给价格带来进一步的上行压力。...如果也出现劳动力短缺，将加剧本已相当困难的局面。</blockquote>TheStreet:On that note, we’ve heard renewed calls to raise the minimum wage not so long ago. Whenever the idea of raising the minimum wage is brought up, you get pushback, with people saying it would raise inflation. Does it?<blockquote>街道：在这一点上，我们不久前听到了提高最低工资的新评级。每当提出提高最低工资的想法时，你都会遭到抵制，人们说这会提高通货膨胀。是吗？</blockquote>McKeown:Raising the minimum wage doesn’t necessarily lead to inflation. It’s a one-off increase. It would boost wages in a one-off way, which then would then drop out of the year-on-year comparisons in a year’s time – unless you’re in an environment where that shift in the minimum wage causes others to call for higher wages as well, and you end up in a wage-price spiral where everyone is bidding up their wages – and prices are going up at the same time. I think that’s the fear that that kind of thing could happen, but I’d say that there is little danger for an aggressive wage-price spiral in the U.S. at that this time. We’re in a very different place than say in the 1970s, when there was a very pronounced wage-price spiral and hyperinflation. That was driven by various factors, but mainly institutional ones: Unions were much stronger and there was much less global competition. An increase in the minimum wage would undoubtedly raise the average wages and boost inflation temporarily.<blockquote>麦基翁：提高最低工资不一定会导致通货膨胀。这是一次性增加。它将以一次性的方式提高工资，然后在一年后从同比比较中消失——除非你所处的环境是最低工资的变化导致其他人看涨期权也要求更高的工资，你最终会陷入工资-价格螺旋，每个人都在提高工资——而价格同时上涨。我认为这是对这种事情可能发生的担忧，但我想说，目前美国工资价格大幅螺旋式上升的危险很小。我们现在的处境与20世纪70年代截然不同，当时工资价格螺旋上升和恶性通货膨胀非常明显。这是由多种因素驱动的，但主要是制度性因素：工会要强大得多，全球竞争也少得多。提高最低工资无疑会提高平均工资，并暂时提振通胀。</blockquote>TheStreet:Let’s shift over to this idea of central banks’ role in what plays out. I saw an opinion piece recently that made the argument that central banks are not as concerned with inflation right now as they were in the past. What are your thoughts on that?<blockquote>街道：让我们转向央行在事态发展中所扮演角色的想法。我最近看到一篇观点文章，认为央行现在不像过去那样关心通胀。你对此有什么想法？</blockquote>McKeown:I do think that their priorities are changing. We’re coming, of course, from a position from where central banks in advanced economies were very single-mindedly focused on inflation – a decade ago it was very much on that one aspect. The Fed’s mandate has ... broadened … it’s now shifted to an average-inflation target from a point-inflation target, which gives it more flexibility and more ability to tolerate higher inflation for a limited period, if it believes it can bring it back down in the future. But it’s also broadened to considering the labor market more explicitly, and looking for an inclusive labor market recovery, which means it’s going to be looking for more than a fall in the unemployment rate, it wants it to affect all parts of the social spectrum. It’s starting to think about inequity a lot more and to consider allowing the economy to run a little hotter for a while in order to get everyone back … into employment. So there’s a lot more going on. So there’s a lot more going on with the Fed, and other central banks, too. The Bank of England is starting to think about climate change and the Reserve Bank of Zealand now has stabilizing house prices as a part of its mandate. There is pretty clear evidence that central banks’ sights are broadening and they may well be prepared to tolerate higher inflation for a period to pursue other goals.<blockquote>麦基翁：我确实认为他们的优先事项正在改变。当然，我们所处的位置是发达经济体的央行非常一心一意地关注通胀——十年前，这主要集中在这一个方面。美联储的任务是...扩大……它现在已从点通胀目标转向平均通胀目标，这使其具有更大的灵活性和更大的能力，可以在有限的时间内容忍较高的通胀，如果它相信未来可以将通胀回落的话。但它也扩大到更明确地考虑劳动力市场，并寻求包容性的劳动力市场复苏，这意味着它将寻求的不仅仅是失业率的下降，它希望它影响社会的所有部分。它开始更多地考虑不平等，并考虑让经济运行一段时间稍微热一点，以让每个人都回到就业岗位。所以还有很多事情要做。因此，美联储和其他央行也发生了更多事情。英格兰银行开始考虑气候变化，新西兰储备银行现在将稳定房价作为其任务的一部分。有相当明显的证据表明，央行的视野正在扩大，他们很可能准备在一段时间内容忍更高的通胀，以追求其他目标。</blockquote>TheStreet:We also have the rise in used car prices in the U.S. and we have other prices, like housing, that seem out of reach for many Americans. But not all of those are factored into current inflation calculations, right?<blockquote>街道：美国二手车价格也在上涨，还有其他价格，比如住房，这对许多美国人来说似乎遥不可及。但并非所有这些都考虑到了当前的通胀计算中，对吗？</blockquote>McKeown:Car prices are in there, as a part of the CPI, but they are a relatively small share. So, for a small family saving up to buy a car, it may seem like a bigger deal – a sharp increase in car prices – than it would appear from the relatively small share they are of the average CPI basket every year.<blockquote>麦基翁：汽车价格是CPI的一部分，但所占份额相对较小。因此，对于一个攒钱买车的小家庭来说，汽车价格大幅上涨似乎比他们每年在平均CPI篮子中所占份额相对较小的情况更重要。</blockquote>But houses, they are not explicitly factored into the CPI. Most statistics agencies will put some measure of rent, some measure … of the cost of housing services into the CPI, but no house costs directly. So, sharp increases in house prices won’t show up, and that’s one of the reasons why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been asked to explicitly target house prices. The government felt that the pure focus on CPI wasn’t enough to be able to help people to afford homes. Therefore it has tasked the central bank with tightening policy if need be, just to keep housing prices under control.<blockquote>但对于房屋，它们并没有明确计入CPI。大多数统计机构会将一定程度的租金、一定程度的住房服务成本纳入CPI，但不会直接计入住房成本。因此，房价的大幅上涨不会出现，这也是新西兰储备银行被要求明确瞄准房价的原因之一。政府认为，仅仅关注消费者物价指数不足以帮助人们买得起房子。因此，它责成央行在必要时收紧政策，只是为了控制房价。</blockquote>TheStreet:There’s seems to be an irony now – that the people who are ringing alarm bells about inflation right now seem to be those with the most, when aren’t they the least likely toreallybe affected by a 2.5% or 3% rise in costs? Someone who’s poorer or on a fixed income would be much more hurt by inflation, right?<blockquote>街道：现在似乎有一个讽刺——现在敲响通胀警钟的人似乎是那些拥有最多通胀的人，而他们不是最不可能拥有通胀的人吗？真的受到成本上涨2.5%或3%的影响？较贫穷或有固定收入的人会受到通货膨胀的伤害更大，对吗？</blockquote>McKeown:I’m sure that’s right. … A relatively small increase in prices in things that are completely essential like fuel could make a really difficult problem. What investors are thinking about when we talk about inflation is the probably that the Fed would respond with a sharp increase in the interest rates, that … could be a good or a bad thing. At this point, it doesn’t look like the Fed is going respond quickly to the rise inflation that we’ve seen. But that’s very much hinged on the idea that it’s transient, and I think that could change very quickly. I we were to see a significant uptick in wage growth, which would signal that the rise in inflation is going to be relatively sustained.<blockquote>麦基翁：我相信这是对的。……像燃料这样完全必需品的价格相对较小的上涨可能会成为一个非常困难的问题。当我们谈论通胀时，投资者想到的是美联储可能会大幅加息，这……可能是好事，也可能是坏事。目前，美联储似乎不会对我们所看到的通胀上升迅速做出反应。但这在很大程度上取决于它是短暂的这一想法，我认为这可能会很快改变。如果我们看到工资增长大幅上升，这将表明通胀上升将相对持续。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/inflation-should-it-stay-or-it-go-heres-what-a-top-economist-thinks\">thestreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/inflation-should-it-stay-or-it-go-heres-what-a-top-economist-thinks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112136236","content_text":"Will inflation prove a bump in the road of higher economic growth, or will it transform into a monster that will run out of control, eventually taking rates up with it?Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powellis saying publicly he views rising prices as \"transitory,\" butothers aren't so sure-- as costs of raw materials like lumberand steel rise, the value of used cars climb, computerchipssee a supply squeeze, restaurants reopen, and oil appears to make a comeback.\"These things are all quite distorted by the pandemic and by the reopening following the pandemic,\"Capital Economics' economist Jennifer McKeown toldTheStreetduring a recent phone call.TheStreetspoke about inflation with McKeown, who is the head of the Global Economics Service at Capital Economics, and who had previously worked for five years at the Bank of England.Here the London-based economist discusses rising prices, how much to expect they will go up and whether they could prove permanent, how the Fed might react, and what to watch as we track the consumer price index, or CPI, that basket of goods that includes costs of a variety of consumer products and services, like energy, food, transportation and medical care. All of these areas are now seeing different price trends, after more than a year of a raging pandemic, lockdowns, social distancing, work-from-home policies, stimulus spending and, now, signs of recovery.The following has been lightly edited for clarity and brevity.TheStreet:A big real estate investor,Sam Zell, recently said he sees similarities to inflation of the 1970s. It seems hard to see how that is possible….McKeown:So we’re expecting some inflation … but like 2.5% or 3%, not 5% to 10%, not the kind of 1970s-type rates. For that to happen, you probably would need less competition -- less global competition -- and you’d need to have stronger unions -- stronger institutions -- that would bid up wages. Also, demographically, we’re in a very different position now from the one we were in during the 1970s. ... While we are looking at a probable rise in inflation in the U.S., it’s not going to be anything like in the 1970s.TheStreet:Now, there’s a debate over whether inflation is transitory or not. We’ve seen several headlines just this past week arguing one way or the other and some are looking at lumber prices and other raw materials costs. Are you able to give some perspective on that, at least on inflation in the U.S.?McKeown:The effects related to lumber and to steel, which has risen very sharply, those should prove transient.… They’ve risen so high already, that they should be due to come back a bit. One issue in metals, for instance, is that steel production in the U.S. is still relatively depressed. It takes a very long time for it to come back on stream after the kinds of lockdowns and closures that we’ve had. So, it’s not that surprising that we see increases in prices, but those should come off.The big question, though, is not whether these commodity prices go up and up and up, but their impact on prices and on manufacturers’ costs. We are starting to see in business surveys that show manufacturers are starting to say that they have had a very sharp increase in their costs, and they’re starting to pass that through to consumers. The question is whether those price increases start to generate other price increases, and, in particular, do they start to play a role in wages?Even a temporary rise in commodity prices can have an effect on wages, if people are seeing those high bills – whether it be on fuel or food – and then demand higher wages because of it. And then, whether the labor market is in a strong enough position to grant those wage increases.So, that is the big question now. What we’re seeing is that in the U.S., there are some signs over growing wage pressure and there are some signs of labor shortages, which would be expected to generate some wage pressure. But outside the U.S. – in Europe, for example – that is not the case. The risk of sustained inflation is much higher in the U.S. than in Europe.TheStreet:Is it possible the pandemic could add to unknowns in employment that could affect inflation? For example, what if a significant number of people who were working in restaurants or retail or even teaching decide they want to change careers after a year of disruption?McKeown:It could, but it depends really on the extent of mismatch between the jobs people are wanting and the jobs that they are qualified to do – and the jobs that are available. If there are fewer people who want to work in restaurants, for example, then that is going to put further upward pressure on prices at a time when we know that capacity restraints are already boosting prices a bit. ...If there are also labor shortages, it would exacerbate what is already quite a difficult situation.TheStreet:On that note, we’ve heard renewed calls to raise the minimum wage not so long ago. Whenever the idea of raising the minimum wage is brought up, you get pushback, with people saying it would raise inflation. Does it?McKeown:Raising the minimum wage doesn’t necessarily lead to inflation. It’s a one-off increase. It would boost wages in a one-off way, which then would then drop out of the year-on-year comparisons in a year’s time – unless you’re in an environment where that shift in the minimum wage causes others to call for higher wages as well, and you end up in a wage-price spiral where everyone is bidding up their wages – and prices are going up at the same time. I think that’s the fear that that kind of thing could happen, but I’d say that there is little danger for an aggressive wage-price spiral in the U.S. at that this time. We’re in a very different place than say in the 1970s, when there was a very pronounced wage-price spiral and hyperinflation. That was driven by various factors, but mainly institutional ones: Unions were much stronger and there was much less global competition. An increase in the minimum wage would undoubtedly raise the average wages and boost inflation temporarily.TheStreet:Let’s shift over to this idea of central banks’ role in what plays out. I saw an opinion piece recently that made the argument that central banks are not as concerned with inflation right now as they were in the past. What are your thoughts on that?McKeown:I do think that their priorities are changing. We’re coming, of course, from a position from where central banks in advanced economies were very single-mindedly focused on inflation – a decade ago it was very much on that one aspect. The Fed’s mandate has ... broadened … it’s now shifted to an average-inflation target from a point-inflation target, which gives it more flexibility and more ability to tolerate higher inflation for a limited period, if it believes it can bring it back down in the future. But it’s also broadened to considering the labor market more explicitly, and looking for an inclusive labor market recovery, which means it’s going to be looking for more than a fall in the unemployment rate, it wants it to affect all parts of the social spectrum. It’s starting to think about inequity a lot more and to consider allowing the economy to run a little hotter for a while in order to get everyone back … into employment. So there’s a lot more going on. So there’s a lot more going on with the Fed, and other central banks, too. The Bank of England is starting to think about climate change and the Reserve Bank of Zealand now has stabilizing house prices as a part of its mandate. There is pretty clear evidence that central banks’ sights are broadening and they may well be prepared to tolerate higher inflation for a period to pursue other goals.TheStreet:We also have the rise in used car prices in the U.S. and we have other prices, like housing, that seem out of reach for many Americans. But not all of those are factored into current inflation calculations, right?McKeown:Car prices are in there, as a part of the CPI, but they are a relatively small share. So, for a small family saving up to buy a car, it may seem like a bigger deal – a sharp increase in car prices – than it would appear from the relatively small share they are of the average CPI basket every year.But houses, they are not explicitly factored into the CPI. Most statistics agencies will put some measure of rent, some measure … of the cost of housing services into the CPI, but no house costs directly. So, sharp increases in house prices won’t show up, and that’s one of the reasons why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been asked to explicitly target house prices. The government felt that the pure focus on CPI wasn’t enough to be able to help people to afford homes. Therefore it has tasked the central bank with tightening policy if need be, just to keep housing prices under control.TheStreet:There’s seems to be an irony now – that the people who are ringing alarm bells about inflation right now seem to be those with the most, when aren’t they the least likely toreallybe affected by a 2.5% or 3% rise in costs? Someone who’s poorer or on a fixed income would be much more hurt by inflation, right?McKeown:I’m sure that’s right. … A relatively small increase in prices in things that are completely essential like fuel could make a really difficult problem. What investors are thinking about when we talk about inflation is the probably that the Fed would respond with a sharp increase in the interest rates, that … could be a good or a bad thing. At this point, it doesn’t look like the Fed is going respond quickly to the rise inflation that we’ve seen. But that’s very much hinged on the idea that it’s transient, and I think that could change very quickly. I we were to see a significant uptick in wage growth, which would signal that the rise in inflation is going to be relatively sustained.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1744,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/190210805"}