A decade i_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-05-10

A decade is a long time [白眼] [傲娇]

1 Big Reason I Won't Buy Amazon Stock<blockquote>我不会购买亚马逊股票的一个重要原因</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":190216362,"tweetId":"190216362","gmtCreate":1620622856256,"gmtModify":1620622856256,"author":{"id":3577917165320806,"idStr":"3577917165320806","authorId":3577917165320806,"authorIdStr":"3577917165320806","name":"KinKat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a5d7e664c9e14d1097e19f1846ce94","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":548,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>A decade is a long time&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;[傲娇]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>A decade is a long time&nbsp;[白眼]&nbsp;[傲娇]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"A decade is a long time [白眼] [傲娇]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190216362","repostId":1197305785,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197305785","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620614212,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197305785?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-10 10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Big Reason I Won't Buy Amazon Stock<blockquote>我不会购买亚马逊股票的一个重要原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197305785","media":"fool","summary":"Late last month,Amazon.com(NASDAQ:AMZN)reportedblowout earnings resultsfor the first quarter of 2021","content":"Late last month,Amazon.com(NASDAQ:AMZN)reportedblowout earnings resultsfor the first quarter of 2021. Sales surged 44%, reaching $108.5 billion. This surpassed the high end of management's guidance and beat the Wall Street consensus by $4 billion. Operating income more than doubled to $8.9 billion.<blockquote>上月底，亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）公布了2021年第一季度的井喷盈利结果。销售额飙升44%，达到1085亿美元。这超过了管理层指导的高端，比华尔街共识高出40亿美元。营业收入增长了一倍多，达到89亿美元。</blockquote>Amazon expects growth to remain robust in the second quarter, despite facing much tougher year-over-year comparisons. Indeed, the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have accelerated its already-impressive growth.<blockquote>尽管面临着更加严峻的同比比较，亚马逊预计第二季度的增长仍将保持强劲。事实上，COVID-19大流行似乎加速了其本已令人印象深刻的增长。</blockquote>However, one of Amazon's biggest competitive advantages could erode over the next few years. And while that won't halt the company's growth entirely, it's a key reason why I'm not interested in paying nearly 60 times forward earnings to buy Amazon stock.<blockquote>然而，亚马逊最大的竞争优势之一可能会在未来几年受到侵蚀。虽然这不会完全阻止公司的增长，但这是我对支付近60倍预期市盈率购买亚马逊股票不感兴趣的一个关键原因。</blockquote>Understanding Amazon's moat<blockquote>了解亚马逊的护城河</blockquote>In its early years, Amazon made a name for itself by radically undercutting competitors on price. (Hence the famous Jeff Bezos quotation: \"Your margin is my opportunity.\")<blockquote>早年，亚马逊通过大幅降低竞争对手的价格而声名鹊起。（因此杰夫·贝索斯有一句名言：“你的利润就是我的机会。”）</blockquote>Today, while Amazon still has fairly low prices, big-box competitors like&nbsp;Walmart(NYSE:WMT)and&nbsp;Target(NYSE:TGT)often have comparable or lower prices. Instead, convenience is Amazon's big differentiator. Over the past decade, Amazon has invested tens of billions of dollars to build a massive fulfillment network. It has warehouses near virtually every major city, a dedicated air cargo network to move goods between them, and an in-house delivery service to complement traditional parcel carriers.<blockquote>如今，虽然亚马逊的价格仍然相当低，但大型竞争对手喜欢沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所代码：WMT）和目标（纽约证券交易所代码：TGT）通常具有可比或更低的价格。相反，便利性是亚马逊的一大优势。在过去的十年里，亚马逊已经投资了数百亿美元来建立一个庞大的履行网络。它在几乎每个主要城市附近都有仓库，有一个专门的航空货运网络在它们之间运输货物，还有一个内部递送服务来补充传统的包裹承运商。</blockquote>Together, these investments allow Amazon to deliver goods quickly and cheaply. Fast, free package deliveries in turn represent the backbone of Amazon's Prime membership service. Prime has attracted over 200 million members who pay a considerable sum -- the regular price in the U.S. is $119 per year -- for the ability to have most anything delivered within a day or two (and sometimes even faster).<blockquote>总之，这些投资使亚马逊能够快速、廉价地交付货物。快速、免费的包裹递送反过来又代表了亚马逊Prime会员服务的支柱。Prime吸引了超过2亿会员，他们支付了相当多的费用（美国的正常价格是每年119美元），因为他们能够在一两天内（有时甚至更快）交付几乎任何东西。</blockquote>Rivals with smaller e-commerce businesses can't afford to have fulfillment centers in every city. That makes it hard to match Amazon's delivery speeds -- or to offer free delivery with no minimum purchase. Walmart has come the closest with its Walmart+ membership program, but it's still a fraction of Prime's size.<blockquote>电子商务业务规模较小的竞争对手无法在每个城市都设有运营中心。这使得它很难与亚马逊的送货速度相匹配，或者提供没有最低购买量的免费送货。沃尔玛的Walmart+会员计划是最接近的，但它的规模仍然只是Prime的一小部分。</blockquote>Faced with a choice between ordering an item on Amazon and receiving it in a day or two with free Prime shipping versus trying to meet another retailer's order minimum -- and possibly waiting longer anyway -- most consumers stick with Amazon.<blockquote>面对在亚马逊上订购商品并在一两天内通过免费Prime送货收到商品，还是试图满足另一家零售商的最低订单（无论如何可能会等待更长时间）之间的选择，大多数消费者坚持使用亚马逊。</blockquote>A technological game changer<blockquote>技术游戏规则改变者</blockquote>The advent of driverless delivery vehicles could rapidly erode Amazon's competitive advantage over the next decade or so. Most of Amazon's biggest rivals have massive store networks. As a result, they have goods positioned very close to customers. But last-mile delivery remains an expensive challenge.<blockquote>无人驾驶送货车辆的出现可能会在未来十年左右迅速侵蚀亚马逊的竞争优势。亚马逊大多数最大的竞争对手都拥有庞大的商店网络。因此，他们将商品放置在离顾客很近的地方。但最后一英里的交付仍然是一个昂贵的挑战。</blockquote>Many retailers do fulfill some online orders from their brick-and-mortar stores. However, shipping items with a traditional parcel carrier is quite expensive, even over relatively short distances. Same-day delivery with a courier (like Target's Shipt service) is even pricier. Amazon's high volumes and insourced delivery network give it a big cost advantage, particularly for same-day and next-day deliveries.<blockquote>许多零售商确实从他们的实体店完成一些在线订单。然而，用传统的包裹承运商运输物品是相当昂贵的，即使是在相对较短的距离上。快递公司的当天送达（如塔吉特的Shipt服务）甚至更贵。亚马逊的高销量和内包配送网络使其具有很大的成本优势，特别是对于当天和次日配送。</blockquote>Autonomous delivery vehicles will be a game changer by driving down delivery costs. As costs decline, it should become possible for any retailer with a broad store network to offer free same-day or next-day deliveries to most consumers with no membership required and possibly even no order minimum.<blockquote>通过降低送货成本，自动送货车辆将改变游戏规则。随着成本下降，任何拥有广泛商店网络的零售商都应该有可能向大多数消费者提供免费的当天或次日送货服务，无需会员资格，甚至可能没有最低订单量。</blockquote>Late last year, the California DMV approved driverless delivery start-up Nuro to begin parcel deliveries in two Bay Area counties. Last month, Nuro began testingDomino's Pizzadeliveries in Houston. By the end of the decade, driverless deliveries could be ubiquitous, and competition could lower the cost to significantly less than the cost of traditional parcel deliveries.<blockquote>去年年底，加州DMV批准无人驾驶送货初创公司Nuro开始在湾区的两个县进行包裹递送。上个月，Nuro开始测试达美乐披萨休斯顿的送货。到本世纪末，无人驾驶送货可能会无处不在，竞争可能会将成本降低到远低于传统包裹递送的成本。</blockquote>The great equalizer<blockquote>伟大的均衡器</blockquote>Not surprisingly, Amazon is also investing in driverless delivery technology. Last year, it spent over $1 billion to buy Zoox, which is working on an autonomous ride-hailing service for now but could easily pivot to deliveries.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，亚马逊也在投资无人驾驶配送技术。去年，它斥资超过10亿美元收购了Zoox，该公司目前正在开发自动叫车服务，但可以轻松转向送货服务。</blockquote>However, while Amazon will be able to match rivals on delivery cost and speed as driverless delivery vehicles take off, it probably won't be able to replicate its current advantage. If consumers can buy from Walmart, Target,Best Buy,Dick's Sporting Goods, and a wide variety ofother retailersand get free same-day or next-day delivery, Amazon may become less of a \"default\" option for consumers. Plus, if other retailers are essentially giving away the core benefit of Prime, will consumers still be willing to pay $119 a year (or more) for free Amazon deliveries?<blockquote>然而，尽管随着无人驾驶送货车辆的起飞，亚马逊将能够在送货成本和速度上与竞争对手相媲美，但它可能无法复制目前的优势。如果消费者可以从沃尔玛、塔吉特、百思买,迪克体育用品以及各种其他零售商并获得免费的当天或次日送达，亚马逊可能不再是消费者的“默认”选择。此外，如果其他零售商基本上放弃了Prime的核心优势，消费者还愿意每年支付119美元（或更多）来获得免费的亚马逊送货吗？</blockquote>Perhaps Amazon will find a new way to differentiate itself and continue gaining market share. However, Amazon's advantage on delivery speed and cost arguably represents the biggest piece of its moat. With driverless delivery vehicles likely to undermine that moat over the next decade or so, Amazon stock's long run of outperformance could come to an end soon.<blockquote>也许亚马逊会找到一种新的方式来区分自己，并继续获得市场份额。然而，亚马逊在送货速度和成本方面的优势可以说是其最大的护城河。由于无人驾驶送货车辆可能会在未来十年左右破坏这一护城河，亚马逊股票的长期优异表现可能很快就会结束。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Big Reason I Won't Buy Amazon Stock<blockquote>我不会购买亚马逊股票的一个重要原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Big Reason I Won't Buy Amazon Stock<blockquote>我不会购买亚马逊股票的一个重要原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nfool2021-05-10 10:36\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nLate last month,Amazon.com(NASDAQ:AMZN)reportedblowout earnings resultsfor the first quarter of 2021. Sales surged 44%, reaching $108.5 billion. This surpassed the high end of management's guidance and beat the Wall Street consensus by $4 billion. Operating income more than doubled to $8.9 billion.<blockquote>上月底，亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）公布了2021年第一季度的井喷盈利结果。销售额飙升44%，达到1085亿美元。这超过了管理层指导的高端，比华尔街共识高出40亿美元。营业收入增长了一倍多，达到89亿美元。</blockquote>Amazon expects growth to remain robust in the second quarter, despite facing much tougher year-over-year comparisons. Indeed, the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have accelerated its already-impressive growth.<blockquote>尽管面临着更加严峻的同比比较，亚马逊预计第二季度的增长仍将保持强劲。事实上，COVID-19大流行似乎加速了其本已令人印象深刻的增长。</blockquote>However, one of Amazon's biggest competitive advantages could erode over the next few years. And while that won't halt the company's growth entirely, it's a key reason why I'm not interested in paying nearly 60 times forward earnings to buy Amazon stock.<blockquote>然而，亚马逊最大的竞争优势之一可能会在未来几年受到侵蚀。虽然这不会完全阻止公司的增长，但这是我对支付近60倍预期市盈率购买亚马逊股票不感兴趣的一个关键原因。</blockquote>Understanding Amazon's moat<blockquote>了解亚马逊的护城河</blockquote>In its early years, Amazon made a name for itself by radically undercutting competitors on price. (Hence the famous Jeff Bezos quotation: \"Your margin is my opportunity.\")<blockquote>早年，亚马逊通过大幅降低竞争对手的价格而声名鹊起。（因此杰夫·贝索斯有一句名言：“你的利润就是我的机会。”）</blockquote>Today, while Amazon still has fairly low prices, big-box competitors like&nbsp;Walmart(NYSE:WMT)and&nbsp;Target(NYSE:TGT)often have comparable or lower prices. Instead, convenience is Amazon's big differentiator. Over the past decade, Amazon has invested tens of billions of dollars to build a massive fulfillment network. It has warehouses near virtually every major city, a dedicated air cargo network to move goods between them, and an in-house delivery service to complement traditional parcel carriers.<blockquote>如今，虽然亚马逊的价格仍然相当低，但大型竞争对手喜欢沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所代码：WMT）和目标（纽约证券交易所代码：TGT）通常具有可比或更低的价格。相反，便利性是亚马逊的一大优势。在过去的十年里，亚马逊已经投资了数百亿美元来建立一个庞大的履行网络。它在几乎每个主要城市附近都有仓库，有一个专门的航空货运网络在它们之间运输货物，还有一个内部递送服务来补充传统的包裹承运商。</blockquote>Together, these investments allow Amazon to deliver goods quickly and cheaply. Fast, free package deliveries in turn represent the backbone of Amazon's Prime membership service. Prime has attracted over 200 million members who pay a considerable sum -- the regular price in the U.S. is $119 per year -- for the ability to have most anything delivered within a day or two (and sometimes even faster).<blockquote>总之，这些投资使亚马逊能够快速、廉价地交付货物。快速、免费的包裹递送反过来又代表了亚马逊Prime会员服务的支柱。Prime吸引了超过2亿会员，他们支付了相当多的费用（美国的正常价格是每年119美元），因为他们能够在一两天内（有时甚至更快）交付几乎任何东西。</blockquote>Rivals with smaller e-commerce businesses can't afford to have fulfillment centers in every city. That makes it hard to match Amazon's delivery speeds -- or to offer free delivery with no minimum purchase. Walmart has come the closest with its Walmart+ membership program, but it's still a fraction of Prime's size.<blockquote>电子商务业务规模较小的竞争对手无法在每个城市都设有运营中心。这使得它很难与亚马逊的送货速度相匹配，或者提供没有最低购买量的免费送货。沃尔玛的Walmart+会员计划是最接近的，但它的规模仍然只是Prime的一小部分。</blockquote>Faced with a choice between ordering an item on Amazon and receiving it in a day or two with free Prime shipping versus trying to meet another retailer's order minimum -- and possibly waiting longer anyway -- most consumers stick with Amazon.<blockquote>面对在亚马逊上订购商品并在一两天内通过免费Prime送货收到商品，还是试图满足另一家零售商的最低订单（无论如何可能会等待更长时间）之间的选择，大多数消费者坚持使用亚马逊。</blockquote>A technological game changer<blockquote>技术游戏规则改变者</blockquote>The advent of driverless delivery vehicles could rapidly erode Amazon's competitive advantage over the next decade or so. Most of Amazon's biggest rivals have massive store networks. As a result, they have goods positioned very close to customers. But last-mile delivery remains an expensive challenge.<blockquote>无人驾驶送货车辆的出现可能会在未来十年左右迅速侵蚀亚马逊的竞争优势。亚马逊大多数最大的竞争对手都拥有庞大的商店网络。因此，他们将商品放置在离顾客很近的地方。但最后一英里的交付仍然是一个昂贵的挑战。</blockquote>Many retailers do fulfill some online orders from their brick-and-mortar stores. However, shipping items with a traditional parcel carrier is quite expensive, even over relatively short distances. Same-day delivery with a courier (like Target's Shipt service) is even pricier. Amazon's high volumes and insourced delivery network give it a big cost advantage, particularly for same-day and next-day deliveries.<blockquote>许多零售商确实从他们的实体店完成一些在线订单。然而，用传统的包裹承运商运输物品是相当昂贵的，即使是在相对较短的距离上。快递公司的当天送达（如塔吉特的Shipt服务）甚至更贵。亚马逊的高销量和内包配送网络使其具有很大的成本优势，特别是对于当天和次日配送。</blockquote>Autonomous delivery vehicles will be a game changer by driving down delivery costs. As costs decline, it should become possible for any retailer with a broad store network to offer free same-day or next-day deliveries to most consumers with no membership required and possibly even no order minimum.<blockquote>通过降低送货成本，自动送货车辆将改变游戏规则。随着成本下降，任何拥有广泛商店网络的零售商都应该有可能向大多数消费者提供免费的当天或次日送货服务，无需会员资格，甚至可能没有最低订单量。</blockquote>Late last year, the California DMV approved driverless delivery start-up Nuro to begin parcel deliveries in two Bay Area counties. Last month, Nuro began testingDomino's Pizzadeliveries in Houston. By the end of the decade, driverless deliveries could be ubiquitous, and competition could lower the cost to significantly less than the cost of traditional parcel deliveries.<blockquote>去年年底，加州DMV批准无人驾驶送货初创公司Nuro开始在湾区的两个县进行包裹递送。上个月，Nuro开始测试达美乐披萨休斯顿的送货。到本世纪末，无人驾驶送货可能会无处不在，竞争可能会将成本降低到远低于传统包裹递送的成本。</blockquote>The great equalizer<blockquote>伟大的均衡器</blockquote>Not surprisingly, Amazon is also investing in driverless delivery technology. Last year, it spent over $1 billion to buy Zoox, which is working on an autonomous ride-hailing service for now but could easily pivot to deliveries.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，亚马逊也在投资无人驾驶配送技术。去年，它斥资超过10亿美元收购了Zoox，该公司目前正在开发自动叫车服务，但可以轻松转向送货服务。</blockquote>However, while Amazon will be able to match rivals on delivery cost and speed as driverless delivery vehicles take off, it probably won't be able to replicate its current advantage. If consumers can buy from Walmart, Target,Best Buy,Dick's Sporting Goods, and a wide variety ofother retailersand get free same-day or next-day delivery, Amazon may become less of a \"default\" option for consumers. Plus, if other retailers are essentially giving away the core benefit of Prime, will consumers still be willing to pay $119 a year (or more) for free Amazon deliveries?<blockquote>然而，尽管随着无人驾驶送货车辆的起飞，亚马逊将能够在送货成本和速度上与竞争对手相媲美，但它可能无法复制目前的优势。如果消费者可以从沃尔玛、塔吉特、百思买,迪克体育用品以及各种其他零售商并获得免费的当天或次日送达，亚马逊可能不再是消费者的“默认”选择。此外，如果其他零售商基本上放弃了Prime的核心优势，消费者还愿意每年支付119美元（或更多）来获得免费的亚马逊送货吗？</blockquote>Perhaps Amazon will find a new way to differentiate itself and continue gaining market share. However, Amazon's advantage on delivery speed and cost arguably represents the biggest piece of its moat. With driverless delivery vehicles likely to undermine that moat over the next decade or so, Amazon stock's long run of outperformance could come to an end soon.<blockquote>也许亚马逊会找到一种新的方式来区分自己，并继续获得市场份额。然而，亚马逊在送货速度和成本方面的优势可以说是其最大的护城河。由于无人驾驶送货车辆可能会在未来十年左右破坏这一护城河，亚马逊股票的长期优异表现可能很快就会结束。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/09/1-big-reason-i-wont-buy-amazon-stock/\">fool</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TGT":"塔吉特","WMT":"沃尔玛","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/09/1-big-reason-i-wont-buy-amazon-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197305785","content_text":"Late last month,Amazon.com(NASDAQ:AMZN)reportedblowout earnings resultsfor the first quarter of 2021. Sales surged 44%, reaching $108.5 billion. This surpassed the high end of management's guidance and beat the Wall Street consensus by $4 billion. Operating income more than doubled to $8.9 billion.Amazon expects growth to remain robust in the second quarter, despite facing much tougher year-over-year comparisons. Indeed, the COVID-19 pandemic appears to have accelerated its already-impressive growth.However, one of Amazon's biggest competitive advantages could erode over the next few years. And while that won't halt the company's growth entirely, it's a key reason why I'm not interested in paying nearly 60 times forward earnings to buy Amazon stock.Understanding Amazon's moatIn its early years, Amazon made a name for itself by radically undercutting competitors on price. (Hence the famous Jeff Bezos quotation: \"Your margin is my opportunity.\")Today, while Amazon still has fairly low prices, big-box competitors like Walmart(NYSE:WMT)and Target(NYSE:TGT)often have comparable or lower prices. Instead, convenience is Amazon's big differentiator. Over the past decade, Amazon has invested tens of billions of dollars to build a massive fulfillment network. It has warehouses near virtually every major city, a dedicated air cargo network to move goods between them, and an in-house delivery service to complement traditional parcel carriers.Together, these investments allow Amazon to deliver goods quickly and cheaply. Fast, free package deliveries in turn represent the backbone of Amazon's Prime membership service. Prime has attracted over 200 million members who pay a considerable sum -- the regular price in the U.S. is $119 per year -- for the ability to have most anything delivered within a day or two (and sometimes even faster).Rivals with smaller e-commerce businesses can't afford to have fulfillment centers in every city. That makes it hard to match Amazon's delivery speeds -- or to offer free delivery with no minimum purchase. Walmart has come the closest with its Walmart+ membership program, but it's still a fraction of Prime's size.Faced with a choice between ordering an item on Amazon and receiving it in a day or two with free Prime shipping versus trying to meet another retailer's order minimum -- and possibly waiting longer anyway -- most consumers stick with Amazon.A technological game changerThe advent of driverless delivery vehicles could rapidly erode Amazon's competitive advantage over the next decade or so. Most of Amazon's biggest rivals have massive store networks. As a result, they have goods positioned very close to customers. But last-mile delivery remains an expensive challenge.Many retailers do fulfill some online orders from their brick-and-mortar stores. However, shipping items with a traditional parcel carrier is quite expensive, even over relatively short distances. Same-day delivery with a courier (like Target's Shipt service) is even pricier. Amazon's high volumes and insourced delivery network give it a big cost advantage, particularly for same-day and next-day deliveries.Autonomous delivery vehicles will be a game changer by driving down delivery costs. As costs decline, it should become possible for any retailer with a broad store network to offer free same-day or next-day deliveries to most consumers with no membership required and possibly even no order minimum.Late last year, the California DMV approved driverless delivery start-up Nuro to begin parcel deliveries in two Bay Area counties. Last month, Nuro began testingDomino's Pizzadeliveries in Houston. By the end of the decade, driverless deliveries could be ubiquitous, and competition could lower the cost to significantly less than the cost of traditional parcel deliveries.The great equalizerNot surprisingly, Amazon is also investing in driverless delivery technology. Last year, it spent over $1 billion to buy Zoox, which is working on an autonomous ride-hailing service for now but could easily pivot to deliveries.However, while Amazon will be able to match rivals on delivery cost and speed as driverless delivery vehicles take off, it probably won't be able to replicate its current advantage. If consumers can buy from Walmart, Target,Best Buy,Dick's Sporting Goods, and a wide variety ofother retailersand get free same-day or next-day delivery, Amazon may become less of a \"default\" option for consumers. Plus, if other retailers are essentially giving away the core benefit of Prime, will consumers still be willing to pay $119 a year (or more) for free Amazon deliveries?Perhaps Amazon will find a new way to differentiate itself and continue gaining market share. However, Amazon's advantage on delivery speed and cost arguably represents the biggest piece of its moat. With driverless delivery vehicles likely to undermine that moat over the next decade or so, Amazon stock's long run of outperformance could come to an end soon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"TGT":0.9,"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":658,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":30,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/190216362"}