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2021-05-13

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Here Is The Heatmap From Today's "Eye-Popping" CPI Report<blockquote>这是今天“令人瞠目结舌”的 CPI 报告的热图</blockquote>

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Despite this historic increase, there is likely further upside in the pipeline with Manheim wholesale used cars rising another 8.2% in April, which builds on the 11% increase from Jan through March.</li><li>Household furnishings &amp; supplies also jumped 0.9% mom, with strength in other goods like recreation (+1.2%) and education &amp; communication (+3.1%).</li><li>Related to the reopening, lodging away from home rose 7.6% mom and transportation services jumped 2.9%.</li><li>In transportation services, airline fares leapt 10.2% mom and car &amp; truck rental leasing surged 16.2% mom, which follows an already impressive 11.7% gain in March.</li><li>The gains in lodging and airfares were both record highs,but prices remain 17.7% and 4.9% lower than pre-pandemic levels which means scope for further significant price increases in coming months.</li><li>In leasing, rental car companies have been impacted by the production cuts in the auto sector as well, which has forced them to build back their fleets with used cars as travel recovers.</li><li>Motor vehicle insurance prices also rose 2.5% mom, which could reflect more people getting back on the roads.</li></ul>Meanwhile, Lin argues that more persistent sources of inflation were tamer. Rents and OER both came in at 0.2% mom, which while in line with the recent trend, is about to change as we discussed in \"And Now Rents Are Soaring Too.\" Furthermore, as Joseph Carson notes, housing prices are up 18% in the past 12 months, a record increase andnine times the increase in owners' rent. \"The old CPI included house prices. Inserting house prices in place of non-market owner rents,reported inflation would have been twice the 4.2% gain.\"<blockquote><ul><li>首先是短缺问题，汽车价格环比上涨 4.3%，其中二手车价格尤其强劲，环比上涨 10.0%，创下历史新高。尽管出现了历史性的增长，但曼海姆二手车批发商在 1 月至 3 月 11% 的增长基础上，4 月份可能还会有进一步的上涨空间。</li><li>家居用品和用品也上涨了0.9%，娱乐（+1.2%）和教育和通信（+3.1%）等其他商品也表现强劲。</li><li>与重新开放相关，外出住宿环比增长 7.6%，交通服务增长 2.9%。</li><li>在运输服务领域，机票价格环比上涨 10.2%，汽车和卡车租赁租赁环比上涨 16.2%，此前 3 月份已实现了令人印象深刻的 11.7% 涨幅。</li><li>住宿和机票的涨幅均创历史新高，但价格仍比大流行前的水平低 17.7% 和 4.9%，这意味着未来几个月价格还有进一步大幅上涨的空间。</li><li>在租赁方面，租车公司也受到了汽车行业减产的影响，随着旅游业的复苏，这迫使它们用二手车重建车队。</li><li>机动车辆保险价格也环比上涨 2.5%，这可能反映出更多的人重新上路。</li></ul>与此同时，林认为，更持久的通胀来源较为温和。租金和 OER 环比均为 0.2%，虽然符合最近的趋势，但正如我们在“现在租金也在飙升”中讨论的那样，这一趋势即将发生变化。此外，正如约瑟夫·卡森指出的那样，房价在过去 12 个月中上涨了 18%，创下了历史新高。业主租金上涨的九倍。”旧的CPI包括房价。用房价代替非市场业主租金，报告的通货膨胀率将是 4.2% 涨幅的两倍.\"</blockquote>Meanwhile, medical care inflation was flat as the boost from stimulus around the turn of the year faded. Within healthcare, insurance was a big drag, contracting 1.0% mom. Professional services also inched down -0.2% mom, while hospital rose 0.3% mom.<blockquote>与此同时，随着年初刺激措施的提振作用消退，医疗保健通胀持平。在医疗保健领域，保险是一大拖累，环比收缩 1.0%。专业服务环比也小幅下降-0.2%，而医院环比上涨0.3%。</blockquote>A visual summary of the data looks like this, first on a M/M basis, where the base effect has no impact as it is sequential...<blockquote>数据的可视化摘要如下所示，首先是在M/M的基础上，其中基本效应没有影响，因为它是顺序的……</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae18376e78b4cca392db3a4a3ac3e393\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and then the YoY CPI print which is less relevant due to the collapse last March.<blockquote>...然后是同比 CPI 数据，由于去年 3 月的崩溃，该数据的相关性较小。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63fb5677bd66ef2a9464cd05c551b8b7\" tg-width=\"1139\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>So with inflation soaring, will anything change and will the Fed be forced to tighten sooner? According to BofA, not at all: \"the Fed is likely to continue to reiterate the message of transitory one-off price increases versus more persistent inflation, with this report a shining example of these dynamics. However, a key question going forward is whether this transitory strength will ultimately feed into the latter. This would be accomplished through rising long term inflation expectations—keep an eye out on survey- and market-based measures.\"<blockquote>那么，随着通胀飙升，情况会改变吗？美联储会被迫更快地收紧货币政策吗？美国银行表示，根本不是：“美联储可能会继续重申短暂的一次性价格上涨与更持久的通胀的信息，这份报告就是这些动态的一个光辉例子。然而，未来的一个关键问题是，这种短暂的力量最终是否会反哺后者。这将通过提高长期通胀预期来实现——密切关注基于调查和市场的衡量标准。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Is The Heatmap From Today's \"Eye-Popping\" CPI Report<blockquote>这是今天“令人瞠目结舌”的 CPI 报告的热图</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Is The Heatmap From Today's \"Eye-Popping\" CPI Report<blockquote>这是今天“令人瞠目结舌”的 CPI 报告的热图</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-05-12 23:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAs BOfA economist Alexander Lin writes, the \"eye-popping\" April CPI report was a \"massive surprise\" as core CPI strongly rose 0.9% (0.92% unrounded) sequentially, which was the largest gain since 1981 and blew away consensus forecasts of 0.3% (for a full range of shocked reactions from traders and strategistssee this).<blockquote>正如美国银行经济学家亚历山大·林（Alexander Lin）所写，“令人瞠目结舌”的 4 月份 CPI 报告是一个“巨大的惊喜”，核心 CPI 连续强劲上涨 0.9%（0.92% 未四舍五入），这是自 1981 年以来的最大涨幅，并打破了 0.3% 的普遍预测（有关交易员和策略师的全方位震惊反应，请参阅此处）。</blockquote>However, in some potentially mitigating details, BofA reveals that near-term inflation pressures were driven bygoods shortages and the reopening \"and that was certainly the case this month as these two themes accounted for at least 70bp of the rise in core.\"<blockquote>然而，在一些潜在的缓解细节中，美国银行透露，近期通胀压力是由商品短缺和重新开放“本月的情况确实如此，因为这两个主题占核心价格上涨的至少 70 个基点。”</blockquote><ul><li>First on&nbsp; shortages, auto prices jumped 4.3% mom with particular strength in used cars, which posted a record increase of 10.0% mom. Despite this historic increase, there is likely further upside in the pipeline with Manheim wholesale used cars rising another 8.2% in April, which builds on the 11% increase from Jan through March.</li><li>Household furnishings &amp; supplies also jumped 0.9% mom, with strength in other goods like recreation (+1.2%) and education &amp; communication (+3.1%).</li><li>Related to the reopening, lodging away from home rose 7.6% mom and transportation services jumped 2.9%.</li><li>In transportation services, airline fares leapt 10.2% mom and car &amp; truck rental leasing surged 16.2% mom, which follows an already impressive 11.7% gain in March.</li><li>The gains in lodging and airfares were both record highs,but prices remain 17.7% and 4.9% lower than pre-pandemic levels which means scope for further significant price increases in coming months.</li><li>In leasing, rental car companies have been impacted by the production cuts in the auto sector as well, which has forced them to build back their fleets with used cars as travel recovers.</li><li>Motor vehicle insurance prices also rose 2.5% mom, which could reflect more people getting back on the roads.</li></ul>Meanwhile, Lin argues that more persistent sources of inflation were tamer. Rents and OER both came in at 0.2% mom, which while in line with the recent trend, is about to change as we discussed in \"And Now Rents Are Soaring Too.\" Furthermore, as Joseph Carson notes, housing prices are up 18% in the past 12 months, a record increase andnine times the increase in owners' rent. \"The old CPI included house prices. Inserting house prices in place of non-market owner rents,reported inflation would have been twice the 4.2% gain.\"<blockquote><ul><li>首先是短缺问题，汽车价格环比上涨 4.3%，其中二手车价格尤其强劲，环比上涨 10.0%，创下历史新高。尽管出现了历史性的增长，但曼海姆二手车批发商在 1 月至 3 月 11% 的增长基础上，4 月份可能还会有进一步的上涨空间。</li><li>家居用品和用品也上涨了0.9%，娱乐（+1.2%）和教育和通信（+3.1%）等其他商品也表现强劲。</li><li>与重新开放相关，外出住宿环比增长 7.6%，交通服务增长 2.9%。</li><li>在运输服务领域，机票价格环比上涨 10.2%，汽车和卡车租赁租赁环比上涨 16.2%，此前 3 月份已实现了令人印象深刻的 11.7% 涨幅。</li><li>住宿和机票的涨幅均创历史新高，但价格仍比大流行前的水平低 17.7% 和 4.9%，这意味着未来几个月价格还有进一步大幅上涨的空间。</li><li>在租赁方面，租车公司也受到了汽车行业减产的影响，随着旅游业的复苏，这迫使它们用二手车重建车队。</li><li>机动车辆保险价格也环比上涨 2.5%，这可能反映出更多的人重新上路。</li></ul>与此同时，林认为，更持久的通胀来源较为温和。租金和 OER 环比均为 0.2%，虽然符合最近的趋势，但正如我们在“现在租金也在飙升”中讨论的那样，这一趋势即将发生变化。此外，正如约瑟夫·卡森指出的那样，房价在过去 12 个月中上涨了 18%，创下了历史新高。业主租金上涨的九倍。”旧的CPI包括房价。用房价代替非市场业主租金，报告的通货膨胀率将是 4.2% 涨幅的两倍.\"</blockquote>Meanwhile, medical care inflation was flat as the boost from stimulus around the turn of the year faded. Within healthcare, insurance was a big drag, contracting 1.0% mom. Professional services also inched down -0.2% mom, while hospital rose 0.3% mom.<blockquote>与此同时，随着年初刺激措施的提振作用消退，医疗保健通胀持平。在医疗保健领域，保险是一大拖累，环比收缩 1.0%。专业服务环比也小幅下降-0.2%，而医院环比上涨0.3%。</blockquote>A visual summary of the data looks like this, first on a M/M basis, where the base effect has no impact as it is sequential...<blockquote>数据的可视化摘要如下所示，首先是在M/M的基础上，其中基本效应没有影响，因为它是顺序的……</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae18376e78b4cca392db3a4a3ac3e393\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... and then the YoY CPI print which is less relevant due to the collapse last March.<blockquote>...然后是同比 CPI 数据，由于去年 3 月的崩溃，该数据的相关性较小。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63fb5677bd66ef2a9464cd05c551b8b7\" tg-width=\"1139\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>So with inflation soaring, will anything change and will the Fed be forced to tighten sooner? According to BofA, not at all: \"the Fed is likely to continue to reiterate the message of transitory one-off price increases versus more persistent inflation, with this report a shining example of these dynamics. However, a key question going forward is whether this transitory strength will ultimately feed into the latter. This would be accomplished through rising long term inflation expectations—keep an eye out on survey- and market-based measures.\"<blockquote>那么，随着通胀飙升，情况会改变吗？美联储会被迫更快地收紧货币政策吗？美国银行表示，根本不是：“美联储可能会继续重申短暂的一次性价格上涨与更持久的通胀的信息，这份报告就是这些动态的一个光辉例子。然而，未来的一个关键问题是，这种短暂的力量最终是否会反哺后者。这将通过提高长期通胀预期来实现——密切关注基于调查和市场的衡量标准。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-heatmap-todays-eye-popping-cpi-report\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-heatmap-todays-eye-popping-cpi-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170539751","content_text":"As BOfA economist Alexander Lin writes, the \"eye-popping\" April CPI report was a \"massive surprise\" as core CPI strongly rose 0.9% (0.92% unrounded) sequentially, which was the largest gain since 1981 and blew away consensus forecasts of 0.3% (for a full range of shocked reactions from traders and strategistssee this).However, in some potentially mitigating details, BofA reveals that near-term inflation pressures were driven bygoods shortages and the reopening \"and that was certainly the case this month as these two themes accounted for at least 70bp of the rise in core.\"First on  shortages, auto prices jumped 4.3% mom with particular strength in used cars, which posted a record increase of 10.0% mom. Despite this historic increase, there is likely further upside in the pipeline with Manheim wholesale used cars rising another 8.2% in April, which builds on the 11% increase from Jan through March.Household furnishings & supplies also jumped 0.9% mom, with strength in other goods like recreation (+1.2%) and education & communication (+3.1%).Related to the reopening, lodging away from home rose 7.6% mom and transportation services jumped 2.9%.In transportation services, airline fares leapt 10.2% mom and car & truck rental leasing surged 16.2% mom, which follows an already impressive 11.7% gain in March.The gains in lodging and airfares were both record highs,but prices remain 17.7% and 4.9% lower than pre-pandemic levels which means scope for further significant price increases in coming months.In leasing, rental car companies have been impacted by the production cuts in the auto sector as well, which has forced them to build back their fleets with used cars as travel recovers.Motor vehicle insurance prices also rose 2.5% mom, which could reflect more people getting back on the roads.Meanwhile, Lin argues that more persistent sources of inflation were tamer. Rents and OER both came in at 0.2% mom, which while in line with the recent trend, is about to change as we discussed in \"And Now Rents Are Soaring Too.\" Furthermore, as Joseph Carson notes, housing prices are up 18% in the past 12 months, a record increase andnine times the increase in owners' rent. \"The old CPI included house prices. Inserting house prices in place of non-market owner rents,reported inflation would have been twice the 4.2% gain.\"Meanwhile, medical care inflation was flat as the boost from stimulus around the turn of the year faded. Within healthcare, insurance was a big drag, contracting 1.0% mom. Professional services also inched down -0.2% mom, while hospital rose 0.3% mom.A visual summary of the data looks like this, first on a M/M basis, where the base effect has no impact as it is sequential...... and then the YoY CPI print which is less relevant due to the collapse last March.So with inflation soaring, will anything change and will the Fed be forced to tighten sooner? According to BofA, not at all: \"the Fed is likely to continue to reiterate the message of transitory one-off price increases versus more persistent inflation, with this report a shining example of these dynamics. However, a key question going forward is whether this transitory strength will ultimately feed into the latter. This would be accomplished through rising long term inflation expectations—keep an eye out on survey- and market-based measures.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":906,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":18,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/191306197"}