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2021-05-16
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John Authers: Watching For "Unrest" Over EM Food Prices And Whether Elon Musk Has "Jumped The Shark"<blockquote>约翰·奥瑟斯：关注新兴市场食品价格的“动荡”以及埃隆·马斯克是否“跳过了鲨鱼”</blockquote>
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In apiece publishedon Friday, Authers lays out two key market themes heading into the end of Q2:</p><p><blockquote>我们读过的对当前市场环境的更好分析之一来自彭博观点作家约翰·奥瑟斯。在周五发布的每篇文章中，Authers列出了进入第二季度末的两个关键市场主题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>The developing problem of inflation, especially as it relates to the cost of food, in emerging markets.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>新兴市场日益严重的通货膨胀问题，尤其是与食品成本有关的问题。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>How Elon Musk has, alongside of all of his devotees and disciples, placed himself firmly on the wrongside of what could be a serious coming market correction.</p><p><blockquote><li>埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)与他所有的信徒和弟子一起，在即将到来的市场严重调整中坚定地站在了错误的一边。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> <b>Rising Food Prices In Emerging Markets Could Eventually Lead To Civil Unrest</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新兴市场食品价格上涨最终可能导致内乱</b></blockquote></p><p> First, Authers points out the obvious: commodity prices have blown through the roof. Producer price inflation came in at \"its highest in four decades, bar a brief peak in the summer of 2008,\" he notes of this week's data.</p><p><blockquote>首先，Authers指出了一个显而易见的事实：大宗商品价格已经飙升。他在本周的数据中指出，生产者价格通胀达到了“四十年来的最高水平，除了2008年夏天的短暂峰值”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98060691179ff7adf11e5b2e9a2b4e9\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\">He notes that while the 2008 price spike was driver by oil, there's no such pressure now. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 48.4% over the last 12 months, a stunning rise. Authers also points out that \"in developed markets at least, the contribution of core goods — excluding oil and agricultural products — to inflation isn’t very significant\".</p><p><blockquote>他指出，虽然2008年的价格飙升是由石油推动的，但现在没有这样的压力。彭博大宗商品指数在过去12个月上涨了48.4%，涨幅惊人。奥瑟斯还指出，“至少在发达市场，核心商品（不包括石油和农产品）对通胀的贡献并不是很大”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9725f82d084f2cbb6023f2dd901d260d\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"296\">He notes that commodity inflation isn't a major problem for the products and services that dominate the developed world...</p><p><blockquote>他指出，对于在发达国家占主导地位的产品和服务来说，大宗商品通胀并不是一个主要问题...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36fe7942e94d8a3157acdf66cad8ae2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"384\">...but that they still play a crucial role in emerging markets. For example, places like Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are far more affected by commodity prices than places like Europe and North America.</p><p><blockquote>但它们在新兴市场仍扮演着至关重要的角色。例如，撒哈拉以南非洲和亚洲等地受大宗商品价格的影响远远大于欧洲和北美等地。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b26f54f61cad2329e73e3ef717fdc7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"393\">And when these moves happen in emerging markets, they tend to be sustained. The last such move in commodity prices came during the Global Financial Crisis and lasted for \"a couple years\", Auther notes.</p><p><blockquote>当这些走势发生在新兴市场时，它们往往会持续下去。Auther指出，大宗商品价格上一次出现此类波动是在全球金融危机期间，并持续了“几年”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5387ffa7b5c1bb11134ba9a21c6eceb9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\">The rising prices can beget social unrest, he notes, citing that the spark that lit the Arab Spring revolts of 2011 was protests in Tunisia over high food prices.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，价格上涨可能会引发社会动荡，并指出引发2011年阿拉伯之春起义的火花是突尼斯对高食品价格的抗议。</blockquote></p><p> \"Only in a rich nation could one exclude nourishment and staying warm as anything other than 'core.' Commodity price inflation can thus be very politically destabilizing, especially in countries without strong and flexible systems of governance,\" wrote Jason DeSenna Trennert of Strategas Research Partners.</p><p><blockquote>Strategas Research的Jason DeSenna Trennert写道：“只有在富裕国家，人们才能将营养和保暖排除在‘核心’之外。因此，大宗商品价格上涨可能会非常破坏政治稳定，特别是在没有强大而灵活的治理体系的国家。”合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> He continued: \"Sadly, riots for food in countries like India, Egypt, and Indonesia became commonplace. With America’s twin deficits approaching 20% of GDP, it is difficult to get bullish about the U.S. dollar, especially against commodities and hard assets. In this way, the dollar is, as Treasury Secretary John Connally once said, “our currency and your problem.”</p><p><blockquote>他继续说道：“可悲的是，在印度、埃及和印度尼西亚等国家，为食物而发生的骚乱变得司空见惯。随着美国的双赤字接近GDP的20%，很难看好美元，尤其是对大宗商品和硬资产。这样一来，美元就像财政部长约翰·康纳利曾经说过的那样，“我们的货币和你们的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> The risk is real, Authers notes. He makes the case that food makes up 29.8% of consumer expenditures in India, as much as 59% in Nigeria, while only accounting for 6.4% in the U.S. As a result, headline inflation in emerging markets will rise, he argues.</p><p><blockquote>作者指出，风险是真实存在的。他指出，食品占印度消费者支出的29.8%，尼日利亚高达59%，而美国仅占6.4%。他认为，因此，新兴市场的总体通胀将会上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e6af99e955d78417e7ffd94b23ca6a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"347\">At that point, countries could consider interest rate hikes when their economies \"aren't ready\" for them, Authers says.</p><p><blockquote>奥瑟斯表示，届时，当各国经济“尚未准备好”加息时，各国可以考虑加息。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1617d35cca2c25dbac59aa284fef441a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"414\">These rising rates would be largely unexpected, as noted in the BNP chart above. Authers concludes his argument by noting that the combination of expensive food and rising rates are both \"unpopular\" trends in emerging markets - especially during a pandemic. This, obviously, would raise the risk for unrest.</p><p><blockquote>正如上面BNP图表所指出的，这些利率上升在很大程度上是出乎意料的。奥瑟斯在结束他的论点时指出，昂贵的食品和不断上升的利率在新兴市场都是“不受欢迎”的趋势——尤其是在疫情期间。显然，这将增加动乱的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Elon Musk's Crypto Advocacy Has Taken A \"Dark Turn\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>埃隆·马斯克的加密货币倡导发生了“黑暗转变”</b></blockquote></p><p> Shifting gears, Auther also approaches the subject of one of the most well known beneficiaries of the market over the last 18 months, Elon Musk. Musk has seen his net worth rise over $100 billion in the last 18 months as the result of Tesla's astronomical (and mysteriously timed) rise.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，Auther还谈到了过去18个月市场上最著名的受益者之一埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的话题。由于特斯拉天文数字（且时间神秘）的上涨，马斯克的净资产在过去18个月里增长了超过1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Authers introduces how Musk advocating for cryptocurrencies became a mutually reinforcing theme for both Bitcoin and Tesla. \"The narrative involving Musk and cryptocurrencies has taken a much darker turn,\" Authers writes.</p><p><blockquote>Authers介绍了Musk倡导加密货币如何成为比特币和特斯拉相辅相成的主题。“涉及马斯克和加密货币的叙述已经发生了更加黑暗的转变，”奥瑟斯写道。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Questioning whether or not Musk's statements about dogecoin and bitcoin have been jokes or not, Authers points out the very real effect Musk has had on the price of the coins, noting the dip on Sunday and the rise yesterday, after Musk tweeted positively about dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>Authers质疑马斯克关于狗狗币和比特币的言论是否是笑话，指出马斯克对代币价格产生了非常真实的影响，并指出在马斯克在推特上积极评价狗狗币后，周日的下跌和昨天的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc5c47e5094ddd3f91f786f46c06c99\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"418\">But he also notes that Musk's involvement in coins means he \"might be in danger of turning himself into an unserious figure, which isn’t a great narrative for the CEO of one of the world's largest companies.\"</p><p><blockquote>但他也指出，马斯克涉足代币意味着他“可能有把自己变成一个不严肃的人物的危险，这对于世界上最大公司之一的首席执行官来说不是一个好故事。”</blockquote></p><p> We'd argue Musk <i>already</i>isn't a serious figure - but that's what makes a market, we guess.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为马斯克<i>已经</i>不是一个严肃的数字——但我们猜测，这就是市场的构成。</blockquote></p><p> Authers can't help but align Musk's comments about coins and the recent drop in Tesla shares, noting that its down 35% from its peak.</p><p><blockquote>Authers不禁将马斯克对代币的评论与特斯拉股价最近的下跌联系起来，指出其股价较峰值下跌了35%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb2c325086d2174df717ae392bc60ad\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\">\"Charts like this don’t look good,\" he writes, before going on to conclude that Musk has \"jumped the shark\":</p><p><blockquote>“这样的图表看起来不太好，”他写道，然后得出马斯克“跳过了鲨鱼”的结论：</blockquote></p><p> After years of triumphantly and cheekily proving the doubters and short sellers wrong, Musk is now on the wrong end of a nasty correction, and <b>vulnerable to a new narrative that he has “jumped the shark” — taken his eye off the ball of his business, and enjoyed a second career as an entertainer.</b>Hubris, or “pride comes before a fall” is one of the oldest human narratives. He doesn’t want to play to it. And as there have been plenty of signs of investment bubbles, particularly in crypto but also in the range of growth and “meme” stocks that support them, a burst bubble looms as another potentially self-fulfilling narrative. While we think Authers' timing may be a little late in recognizing Musk for the carnival barker he is, we can't help but feel as though he finally has his finger on the pulse.</p><p><blockquote>在多年胜利而厚颜无耻地证明怀疑者和卖空者是错误的之后，马斯克现在正处于一场令人讨厌的调整的错误一端，并且<b>他很容易受到一种新的说法的影响，即他已经“跳过了鲨鱼”——把目光从他的生意上移开，享受着作为艺人的第二职业。</b>傲慢，或“骄傲先于跌倒”是人类最古老的叙事之一。他不想玩它。由于有很多投资泡沫的迹象，特别是在加密货币领域，但也在支持它们的增长和“模因”股票领域，泡沫破裂迫在眉睫，成为另一种潜在的自我实现叙事。虽然我们认为Authers认识到马斯克是嘉年华巴克的时机可能有点晚，但我们不禁觉得他终于掌握了脉搏。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>John Authers: Watching For \"Unrest\" Over EM Food Prices And Whether Elon Musk Has \"Jumped The Shark\"<blockquote>约翰·奥瑟斯：关注新兴市场食品价格的“动荡”以及埃隆·马斯克是否“跳过了鲨鱼”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJohn Authers: Watching For \"Unrest\" Over EM Food Prices And Whether Elon Musk Has \"Jumped The Shark\"<blockquote>约翰·奥瑟斯：关注新兴市场食品价格的“动荡”以及埃隆·马斯克是否“跳过了鲨鱼”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 20:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Among the difficulties of entering uncharted macroeconomic territory, where daily \"transitory\" changes cause wild volatility in all corners of the market, is documenting key themes as they emerge.</p><p><blockquote>进入未知的宏观经济领域的困难之一是记录出现的关键主题。在这个领域，每天的“短暂”变化都会导致市场各个角落的剧烈波动。</blockquote></p><p> One of the better analyses of the current market environment that we have read has come from Bloomberg Opinion writer John Authers. In apiece publishedon Friday, Authers lays out two key market themes heading into the end of Q2:</p><p><blockquote>我们读过的对当前市场环境的更好分析之一来自彭博观点作家约翰·奥瑟斯。在周五发布的每篇文章中，Authers列出了进入第二季度末的两个关键市场主题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>The developing problem of inflation, especially as it relates to the cost of food, in emerging markets.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>新兴市场日益严重的通货膨胀问题，尤其是与食品成本有关的问题。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>How Elon Musk has, alongside of all of his devotees and disciples, placed himself firmly on the wrongside of what could be a serious coming market correction.</p><p><blockquote><li>埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)与他所有的信徒和弟子一起，在即将到来的市场严重调整中坚定地站在了错误的一边。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> <b>Rising Food Prices In Emerging Markets Could Eventually Lead To Civil Unrest</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新兴市场食品价格上涨最终可能导致内乱</b></blockquote></p><p> First, Authers points out the obvious: commodity prices have blown through the roof. Producer price inflation came in at \"its highest in four decades, bar a brief peak in the summer of 2008,\" he notes of this week's data.</p><p><blockquote>首先，Authers指出了一个显而易见的事实：大宗商品价格已经飙升。他在本周的数据中指出，生产者价格通胀达到了“四十年来的最高水平，除了2008年夏天的短暂峰值”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98060691179ff7adf11e5b2e9a2b4e9\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\">He notes that while the 2008 price spike was driver by oil, there's no such pressure now. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 48.4% over the last 12 months, a stunning rise. Authers also points out that \"in developed markets at least, the contribution of core goods — excluding oil and agricultural products — to inflation isn’t very significant\".</p><p><blockquote>他指出，虽然2008年的价格飙升是由石油推动的，但现在没有这样的压力。彭博大宗商品指数在过去12个月上涨了48.4%，涨幅惊人。奥瑟斯还指出，“至少在发达市场，核心商品（不包括石油和农产品）对通胀的贡献并不是很大”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9725f82d084f2cbb6023f2dd901d260d\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"296\">He notes that commodity inflation isn't a major problem for the products and services that dominate the developed world...</p><p><blockquote>他指出，对于在发达国家占主导地位的产品和服务来说，大宗商品通胀并不是一个主要问题...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36fe7942e94d8a3157acdf66cad8ae2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"384\">...but that they still play a crucial role in emerging markets. For example, places like Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are far more affected by commodity prices than places like Europe and North America.</p><p><blockquote>但它们在新兴市场仍扮演着至关重要的角色。例如，撒哈拉以南非洲和亚洲等地受大宗商品价格的影响远远大于欧洲和北美等地。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b26f54f61cad2329e73e3ef717fdc7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"393\">And when these moves happen in emerging markets, they tend to be sustained. The last such move in commodity prices came during the Global Financial Crisis and lasted for \"a couple years\", Auther notes.</p><p><blockquote>当这些走势发生在新兴市场时，它们往往会持续下去。Auther指出，大宗商品价格上一次出现此类波动是在全球金融危机期间，并持续了“几年”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5387ffa7b5c1bb11134ba9a21c6eceb9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\">The rising prices can beget social unrest, he notes, citing that the spark that lit the Arab Spring revolts of 2011 was protests in Tunisia over high food prices.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，价格上涨可能会引发社会动荡，并指出引发2011年阿拉伯之春起义的火花是突尼斯对高食品价格的抗议。</blockquote></p><p> \"Only in a rich nation could one exclude nourishment and staying warm as anything other than 'core.' Commodity price inflation can thus be very politically destabilizing, especially in countries without strong and flexible systems of governance,\" wrote Jason DeSenna Trennert of Strategas Research Partners.</p><p><blockquote>Strategas Research的Jason DeSenna Trennert写道：“只有在富裕国家，人们才能将营养和保暖排除在‘核心’之外。因此，大宗商品价格上涨可能会非常破坏政治稳定，特别是在没有强大而灵活的治理体系的国家。”合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p> He continued: \"Sadly, riots for food in countries like India, Egypt, and Indonesia became commonplace. With America’s twin deficits approaching 20% of GDP, it is difficult to get bullish about the U.S. dollar, especially against commodities and hard assets. In this way, the dollar is, as Treasury Secretary John Connally once said, “our currency and your problem.”</p><p><blockquote>他继续说道：“可悲的是，在印度、埃及和印度尼西亚等国家，为食物而发生的骚乱变得司空见惯。随着美国的双赤字接近GDP的20%，很难看好美元，尤其是对大宗商品和硬资产。这样一来，美元就像财政部长约翰·康纳利曾经说过的那样，“我们的货币和你们的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> The risk is real, Authers notes. He makes the case that food makes up 29.8% of consumer expenditures in India, as much as 59% in Nigeria, while only accounting for 6.4% in the U.S. As a result, headline inflation in emerging markets will rise, he argues.</p><p><blockquote>作者指出，风险是真实存在的。他指出，食品占印度消费者支出的29.8%，尼日利亚高达59%，而美国仅占6.4%。他认为，因此，新兴市场的总体通胀将会上升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e6af99e955d78417e7ffd94b23ca6a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"347\">At that point, countries could consider interest rate hikes when their economies \"aren't ready\" for them, Authers says.</p><p><blockquote>奥瑟斯表示，届时，当各国经济“尚未准备好”加息时，各国可以考虑加息。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1617d35cca2c25dbac59aa284fef441a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"414\">These rising rates would be largely unexpected, as noted in the BNP chart above. Authers concludes his argument by noting that the combination of expensive food and rising rates are both \"unpopular\" trends in emerging markets - especially during a pandemic. This, obviously, would raise the risk for unrest.</p><p><blockquote>正如上面BNP图表所指出的，这些利率上升在很大程度上是出乎意料的。奥瑟斯在结束他的论点时指出，昂贵的食品和不断上升的利率在新兴市场都是“不受欢迎”的趋势——尤其是在疫情期间。显然，这将增加动乱的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Elon Musk's Crypto Advocacy Has Taken A \"Dark Turn\"</b></p><p><blockquote><b>埃隆·马斯克的加密货币倡导发生了“黑暗转变”</b></blockquote></p><p> Shifting gears, Auther also approaches the subject of one of the most well known beneficiaries of the market over the last 18 months, Elon Musk. Musk has seen his net worth rise over $100 billion in the last 18 months as the result of Tesla's astronomical (and mysteriously timed) rise.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，Auther还谈到了过去18个月市场上最著名的受益者之一埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的话题。由于特斯拉天文数字（且时间神秘）的上涨，马斯克的净资产在过去18个月里增长了超过1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Authers introduces how Musk advocating for cryptocurrencies became a mutually reinforcing theme for both Bitcoin and Tesla. \"The narrative involving Musk and cryptocurrencies has taken a much darker turn,\" Authers writes.</p><p><blockquote>Authers介绍了Musk倡导加密货币如何成为比特币和特斯拉相辅相成的主题。“涉及马斯克和加密货币的叙述已经发生了更加黑暗的转变，”奥瑟斯写道。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Questioning whether or not Musk's statements about dogecoin and bitcoin have been jokes or not, Authers points out the very real effect Musk has had on the price of the coins, noting the dip on Sunday and the rise yesterday, after Musk tweeted positively about dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>Authers质疑马斯克关于狗狗币和比特币的言论是否是笑话，指出马斯克对代币价格产生了非常真实的影响，并指出在马斯克在推特上积极评价狗狗币后，周日的下跌和昨天的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc5c47e5094ddd3f91f786f46c06c99\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"418\">But he also notes that Musk's involvement in coins means he \"might be in danger of turning himself into an unserious figure, which isn’t a great narrative for the CEO of one of the world's largest companies.\"</p><p><blockquote>但他也指出，马斯克涉足代币意味着他“可能有把自己变成一个不严肃的人物的危险，这对于世界上最大公司之一的首席执行官来说不是一个好故事。”</blockquote></p><p> We'd argue Musk <i>already</i>isn't a serious figure - but that's what makes a market, we guess.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为马斯克<i>已经</i>不是一个严肃的数字——但我们猜测，这就是市场的构成。</blockquote></p><p> Authers can't help but align Musk's comments about coins and the recent drop in Tesla shares, noting that its down 35% from its peak.</p><p><blockquote>Authers不禁将马斯克对代币的评论与特斯拉股价最近的下跌联系起来，指出其股价较峰值下跌了35%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbb2c325086d2174df717ae392bc60ad\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\">\"Charts like this don’t look good,\" he writes, before going on to conclude that Musk has \"jumped the shark\":</p><p><blockquote>“这样的图表看起来不太好，”他写道，然后得出马斯克“跳过了鲨鱼”的结论：</blockquote></p><p> After years of triumphantly and cheekily proving the doubters and short sellers wrong, Musk is now on the wrong end of a nasty correction, and <b>vulnerable to a new narrative that he has “jumped the shark” — taken his eye off the ball of his business, and enjoyed a second career as an entertainer.</b>Hubris, or “pride comes before a fall” is one of the oldest human narratives. He doesn’t want to play to it. And as there have been plenty of signs of investment bubbles, particularly in crypto but also in the range of growth and “meme” stocks that support them, a burst bubble looms as another potentially self-fulfilling narrative. While we think Authers' timing may be a little late in recognizing Musk for the carnival barker he is, we can't help but feel as though he finally has his finger on the pulse.</p><p><blockquote>在多年胜利而厚颜无耻地证明怀疑者和卖空者是错误的之后，马斯克现在正处于一场令人讨厌的调整的错误一端，并且<b>他很容易受到一种新的说法的影响，即他已经“跳过了鲨鱼”——把目光从他的生意上移开，享受着作为艺人的第二职业。</b>傲慢，或“骄傲先于跌倒”是人类最古老的叙事之一。他不想玩它。由于有很多投资泡沫的迹象，特别是在加密货币领域，但也在支持它们的增长和“模因”股票领域，泡沫破裂迫在眉睫，成为另一种潜在的自我实现叙事。虽然我们认为Authers认识到马斯克是嘉年华巴克的时机可能有点晚，但我们不禁觉得他终于掌握了脉搏。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/john-authers-op-ed-talks-emerging-market-unrest-over-food-prices-and-elon-musk-jumping?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/john-authers-op-ed-talks-emerging-market-unrest-over-food-prices-and-elon-musk-jumping?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199905706","content_text":"Among the difficulties of entering uncharted macroeconomic territory, where daily \"transitory\" changes cause wild volatility in all corners of the market, is documenting key themes as they emerge.\nOne of the better analyses of the current market environment that we have read has come from Bloomberg Opinion writer John Authers. In apiece publishedon Friday, Authers lays out two key market themes heading into the end of Q2:\n\nThe developing problem of inflation, especially as it relates to the cost of food, in emerging markets.\nHow Elon Musk has, alongside of all of his devotees and disciples, placed himself firmly on the wrongside of what could be a serious coming market correction.\n\nRising Food Prices In Emerging Markets Could Eventually Lead To Civil Unrest\nFirst, Authers points out the obvious: commodity prices have blown through the roof. Producer price inflation came in at \"its highest in four decades, bar a brief peak in the summer of 2008,\" he notes of this week's data.\nHe notes that while the 2008 price spike was driver by oil, there's no such pressure now. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 48.4% over the last 12 months, a stunning rise. Authers also points out that \"in developed markets at least, the contribution of core goods — excluding oil and agricultural products — to inflation isn’t very significant\".\nHe notes that commodity inflation isn't a major problem for the products and services that dominate the developed world...\n...but that they still play a crucial role in emerging markets. For example, places like Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are far more affected by commodity prices than places like Europe and North America.\nAnd when these moves happen in emerging markets, they tend to be sustained. The last such move in commodity prices came during the Global Financial Crisis and lasted for \"a couple years\", Auther notes.\nThe rising prices can beget social unrest, he notes, citing that the spark that lit the Arab Spring revolts of 2011 was protests in Tunisia over high food prices.\n\"Only in a rich nation could one exclude nourishment and staying warm as anything other than 'core.' Commodity price inflation can thus be very politically destabilizing, especially in countries without strong and flexible systems of governance,\" wrote Jason DeSenna Trennert of Strategas Research Partners.\nHe continued: \"Sadly, riots for food in countries like India, Egypt, and Indonesia became commonplace. With America’s twin deficits approaching 20% of GDP, it is difficult to get bullish about the U.S. dollar, especially against commodities and hard assets. In this way, the dollar is, as Treasury Secretary John Connally once said, “our currency and your problem.”\nThe risk is real, Authers notes. He makes the case that food makes up 29.8% of consumer expenditures in India, as much as 59% in Nigeria, while only accounting for 6.4% in the U.S. As a result, headline inflation in emerging markets will rise, he argues.\nAt that point, countries could consider interest rate hikes when their economies \"aren't ready\" for them, Authers says.\nThese rising rates would be largely unexpected, as noted in the BNP chart above. Authers concludes his argument by noting that the combination of expensive food and rising rates are both \"unpopular\" trends in emerging markets - especially during a pandemic. This, obviously, would raise the risk for unrest.\nElon Musk's Crypto Advocacy Has Taken A \"Dark Turn\"\nShifting gears, Auther also approaches the subject of one of the most well known beneficiaries of the market over the last 18 months, Elon Musk. Musk has seen his net worth rise over $100 billion in the last 18 months as the result of Tesla's astronomical (and mysteriously timed) rise.\nAuthers introduces how Musk advocating for cryptocurrencies became a mutually reinforcing theme for both Bitcoin and Tesla. \"The narrative involving Musk and cryptocurrencies has taken a much darker turn,\" Authers writes.\nQuestioning whether or not Musk's statements about dogecoin and bitcoin have been jokes or not, Authers points out the very real effect Musk has had on the price of the coins, noting the dip on Sunday and the rise yesterday, after Musk tweeted positively about dogecoin.\nBut he also notes that Musk's involvement in coins means he \"might be in danger of turning himself into an unserious figure, which isn’t a great narrative for the CEO of one of the world's largest companies.\"\nWe'd argue Musk alreadyisn't a serious figure - but that's what makes a market, we guess.\nAuthers can't help but align Musk's comments about coins and the recent drop in Tesla shares, noting that its down 35% from its peak.\n\"Charts like this don’t look good,\" he writes, before going on to conclude that Musk has \"jumped the shark\":\n\n After years of triumphantly and cheekily proving the doubters and short sellers wrong, Musk is now on the wrong end of a nasty correction, and\n vulnerable to a new narrative that he has “jumped the shark” — taken his eye off the ball of his business, and enjoyed a second career as an entertainer.Hubris, or “pride comes before a fall” is one of the oldest human narratives. He doesn’t want to play to it. And as there have been plenty of signs of investment bubbles, particularly in crypto but also in the range of growth and “meme” stocks that support them, a burst bubble looms as another potentially self-fulfilling narrative.\n\nWhile we think Authers' timing may be a little late in recognizing Musk for the carnival barker he is, we can't help but feel as though he finally has his finger on the pulse.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1003,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/192085447"}
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