Jeffrey159
2021-05-16
Nice
Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在任何股市反弹都会很快</blockquote>
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Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为这些市场计时器，尤其是那些关注纳斯达克NDX,1.07%市场的市场计时器，已经变得足够看跌，阻力最小的短期路径已经出现。不过，目前还不清楚任何新的反弹是否会有持久的力量。不排除未来几个月美国市场会出现更严重的下滑。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.</p><p><blockquote>就目前而言，以历史标准衡量，最近的跌幅似乎相当温和，甚至小于半官方定义的10%的跌幅。在周四的大幅反弹之前，道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%）已从之前的历史高点3.4%下跌了约1200点。标准普尔 500SPX，0.98%，比高点低 4.0%，纳斯达克综合指数 1.13%，下跌 7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Consider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下专注于纳斯达克的市场计时器对这些下跌的反应。从下图可以看出，他们的平均推荐股票敞口（以赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）表示）降至负10.7%。这意味着专注于纳斯达克的市场计时器现在建议他们的客户将平均 10.7% 的股票交易投资组合分配给做空。就在4月29日，这一平均暴露水平为正83.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550f647619d600d419397967f7bb778\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"928\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.</p><p><blockquote>这反映出退出的速度非常快——短短 10 个交易日就下跌了 94.3 个百分点。事实上，在 2000 年以来的 5000 多个交易日中，只有 18 个交易日（0.3%）HNNSI 在过去 10 天的跌幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.</p><p><blockquote>要理解这一点的逆向意义，请考虑一下，在过去几次 HNNSI 下跌幅度如此之大、速度如此之快之后，纳斯达克综合指数在一个月内平均上涨了 5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Why, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么逆向投资者没有变得更加看涨呢？答案在图表中也很明显： HNNSI 在过去 10 天里的暴跌远远低于过度看跌区域，该区域被定义为历史分布的底部 10%。该区域由图表底部的米色阴影框表示。</blockquote></p><p> The last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.</p><p><blockquote>HNNSI上一次陷入该区域是在2020年3月。就在那时，市场的 “担忧之墙 ”变得异常坚固，并能够支撑令人印象深刻的反弹。今天的墙没有那么坚固了。</blockquote></p><p> The sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据描绘的情绪图景表明，市场计时器很乐意触发。当市场上涨时，他们会迅速加入看涨行列，然后当市场下跌时，他们会迅速加入看跌行列。因此，上涨和下跌往往都是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> A longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.</p><p><blockquote>要想持续更长时间的反弹，市场计时器需要更加极端的看跌情绪，并在反弹初期上涨后顽固地保持看跌情绪。除非发生这种情况，否则市场本身很可能会遭受比我们最近几天经历的更严重的下跌。与此同时，享受这场集会吧——趁它还在继续。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在任何股市反弹都会很快</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Why any stock market rally right now will be quick<blockquote>观点：为什么现在任何股市反弹都会很快</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.</b> Contrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场计时器与多头一起运行，但很快就会转为看跌。</b>反向投资者怀疑，目前股市近期的下跌已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为这些市场计时器，尤其是那些关注纳斯达克NDX,1.07%市场的市场计时器，已经变得足够看跌，阻力最小的短期路径已经出现。不过，目前还不清楚任何新的反弹是否会有持久的力量。不排除未来几个月美国市场会出现更严重的下滑。</blockquote></p><p> For now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.</p><p><blockquote>就目前而言，以历史标准衡量，最近的跌幅似乎相当温和，甚至小于半官方定义的10%的跌幅。在周四的大幅反弹之前，道琼斯工业平均指数（Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%）已从之前的历史高点3.4%下跌了约1200点。标准普尔 500SPX，0.98%，比高点低 4.0%，纳斯达克综合指数 1.13%，下跌 7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Consider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下专注于纳斯达克的市场计时器对这些下跌的反应。从下图可以看出，他们的平均推荐股票敞口（以赫伯特·纳斯达克时事通讯情绪指数（HNNSI）表示）降至负10.7%。这意味着专注于纳斯达克的市场计时器现在建议他们的客户将平均 10.7% 的股票交易投资组合分配给做空。就在4月29日，这一平均暴露水平为正83.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550f647619d600d419397967f7bb778\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"928\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> That reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.</p><p><blockquote>这反映出退出的速度非常快——短短 10 个交易日就下跌了 94.3 个百分点。事实上，在 2000 年以来的 5000 多个交易日中，只有 18 个交易日（0.3%）HNNSI 在过去 10 天的跌幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> To appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.</p><p><blockquote>要理解这一点的逆向意义，请考虑一下，在过去几次 HNNSI 下跌幅度如此之大、速度如此之快之后，纳斯达克综合指数在一个月内平均上涨了 5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Why, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么逆向投资者没有变得更加看涨呢？答案在图表中也很明显： HNNSI 在过去 10 天里的暴跌远远低于过度看跌区域，该区域被定义为历史分布的底部 10%。该区域由图表底部的米色阴影框表示。</blockquote></p><p> The last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.</p><p><blockquote>HNNSI上一次陷入该区域是在2020年3月。就在那时，市场的 “担忧之墙 ”变得异常坚固，并能够支撑令人印象深刻的反弹。今天的墙没有那么坚固了。</blockquote></p><p> The sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.</p><p><blockquote>最近的数据描绘的情绪图景表明，市场计时器很乐意触发。当市场上涨时，他们会迅速加入看涨行列，然后当市场下跌时，他们会迅速加入看跌行列。因此，上涨和下跌往往都是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> A longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.</p><p><blockquote>要想持续更长时间的反弹，市场计时器需要更加极端的看跌情绪，并在反弹初期上涨后顽固地保持看跌情绪。除非发生这种情况，否则市场本身很可能会遭受比我们最近几天经历的更严重的下跌。与此同时，享受这场集会吧——趁它还在继续。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick-11620958836?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-any-stock-market-rally-right-now-will-be-quick-11620958836?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111018641","content_text":"Market-timers are running with the bulls but quick to turn bearish.\n\nContrarian investors suspect that the stock market’s recent decline has run its course — for now.\nThat’s because these market timers, especially those who focus on the NasdaqNDX,1.07%market in particular, have become sufficiently bearish that the short-term path of least resistance has turned up. Still, it’s not clear that any new rally will have much lasting power. An even more serious U.S. market decline cannot be ruled out over the coming couple of months.\nFor now, the recent decline appears to have been quite modest by historical standards, smaller even than what satisfies the semi-official definition of a correction as a 10% decline. Before Thursday’s big rally, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,0.85%had fallen around 1,200 points from its previous all-time high, or 3.4%. The S&P 500SPX,0.98%was 4.0% below its high, and the Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,1.13%was down 7.8%.\nConsider how the Nasdaq-focused market timers reacted to these declines. As you can see from the chart below, their average recommended equity exposure (as represented by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI) fell to minus 10.7%. That means that the Nasdaq-focused market timers are now recommending that their clients allocate an average of 10.7% of their equity trading portfolios to going short. As recently as April 29, this average exposure level stood at plus 83.6%.\n\nThat reflects a remarkably quick rush for the exits — 94.3 percentage points in just 10 trading sessions. In fact, out of the 5,000+ trading days since 2000, there have been only 18 — 0.3% — in which the HNNSI’s decline over the trailing 10 days was greater.\nTo appreciate the contrarian significance of this, consider that, on average following those past few occasions when the HNNSI declined by this much and this fast, the Nasdaq Composite was 5.3% higher in one month’s time.\nWhy, then, haven’t the contrarians become more bullish? The answer is also evident in the chart: The HNNSI’s plunge over the past 10 days stopped well short of the excessive bearish zone, defined as being in the bottom 10% of the historical distribution. That zone is represented by the beige-shaded box at the bottom of the chart.\nThe last time the HNNSI fell into that zone was in March 2020. That was when the market’s “wall of worry” became incredibly strong and was able to support an impressive rally. That wall today is not as strong.\nThe sentiment picture that the recent data are painting shows the market timers to be trigger-happy. They are quick to jump on the bullish bandwagon when the market rallies, and then jump on the bearish bandwagon when the market declines. As a result, both rallies and declines tend to be short-lived.\nA longer-lasting rally will require more extreme bearishness among the market timers, and for them to stubbornly hold onto their bearishness in the wake of the rally’s initial liftoff. Except for that to happen, the market to itself most likely would have to suffer a worse decline than we’ve experienced in recent days. In the meantime, enjoy this rally — while it lasts.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2365,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/192830042"}
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