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2021-05-12

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Beware heightened risks of ‘fragility shocks’ in a market too dependent on the Fed, BofA warns<blockquote>美国银行警告称，在过于依赖美联储的市场中，谨防“脆弱性冲击”的风险增加</blockquote>

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Fragility risks in the market are at the highest ever, as investors keep looking to the Federal Reserve to extend a massive stock-market rally thatrepeatedly has risen to fresh recordsthis year, according to analysts at Bank of America Corp.<blockquote>美国银行分析师表示，今年夏天投资者可能需要“走钢丝”。美国银行(Bank of America Corp.)分析师表示，市场的脆弱性风险处于历史最高水平，因为投资者一直期待美联储延长股市的大规模涨势，今年股市多次升至新纪录。</blockquote> “Markets remain overly dependent on the Fed and are inherently fragile,” the bank’s equity-linked analysts said in a BofA Global Research note Tuesday. Two of the four biggest “fragility shocks” since 1928 were seen in the S&amp;P 500 index in just the last three and a half years, they said in the equity derivatives report.<blockquote>该行股票相关分析师周二在美国银行全球研究报告中表示：“市场仍然过度依赖美联储，并且本质上很脆弱。”他们在股票衍生品报告中表示，自1928年以来四次最大的“脆弱性冲击”中有两次出现在标普500指数中，仅在过去三年半的时间里。</blockquote> Thestock market is vulnerableafter staging a huge recovery from last year’s trough in the Covid-19-induced selloff — a downturn that prompted the Fed to swoop in with rescue programs designed to support markets and an imperiled economy. The S&amp;P 500 has soared nearly 90% from the Covid low for the second-fastest rally for U.S. equities since 1928, the BofA Global Research report shows.<blockquote>股市在从去年Covid-19引发的抛售中的低谷中大幅复苏后变得脆弱——这场低迷促使美联储采取旨在支持市场和陷入困境的经济的救援计划。美国银行全球研究报告显示，标普500较新冠疫情低点飙升近90%，创1928年以来美股第二快涨幅。</blockquote> Investors have worried thatsigns of rising inflationin the economic rebound could result in the Fed tapering its asset purchases or raising its benchmark interest rate sooner than anticipated. One concern is that a less accommodative Fed couldhurt the valuations of high growth stocks.<blockquote>投资者担心，经济反弹中通胀上升的迹象可能会导致美联储比预期更早缩减资产购买规模或提高基准利率。一个担忧是，美联储不那么宽松可能会损害高增长股票的估值。</blockquote> The market’s reaction to a weaker-than-anticipated jobs report on Friday underscored its reliance on the Fed, as the“bad news” was treated as “good news,”according to the analysts, who pointed to the jump that day in the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index. In other words, stock-market investors took thedisappointing jobs reportas reason for the central bank to remain dovish.<blockquote>分析师表示，市场对周五弱于预期的就业报告的反应凸显了其对美联储的依赖，因为“坏消息”被视为“好消息”，他们指出当天股市上涨以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数。换句话说，股市投资者将令人失望的就业报告视为央行保持鸽派立场的理由。</blockquote> “The Fed has their pedal to the metal trying to restore the pre-Covid labour market,” the analysts wrote. “While the Fed can’t afford to appear uncertain, their dogmatic confidence that inflation won’t become problematic is equally suspect.”<blockquote>分析师写道：“美联储正在全力以赴，试图恢复新冠疫情爆发前的劳动力市场。”“虽然美联储不能表现得不确定，但他们对通胀不会成为问题的教条信心同样值得怀疑。”</blockquote> U.S. stocks fell Monday and extended losses into Tuesday. The Nasdaq Composite indexCOMP,-0.09%was down 0.2% in afternoon trading, while the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.87%fell 1% and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.36%was 1.5% lower.<blockquote>美国股市周一下跌，并将跌幅延续至周二。纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-0.09%在下午交易中下跌0.2%，标准普尔500SPX,-0.87%下跌1%，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,-1.36%下跌1.5%。</blockquote> “Markets will likely need to walk a Goldilocks tightrope over the summer,” the Bank of America analysts said.&nbsp;That means investors will need to navigate increasingly “tricky territory” where they’re avoiding both the upsiderisks of inflationand overheating as well as the downside risk that “herd immunity remains elusive” as the pandemic persists, according to their note.<blockquote>美国银行分析师表示：“今年夏天，市场可能需要走钢丝。”这意味着投资者将需要在日益“棘手的领域”航行，既要避免通胀和过热的上行风险，也要避免下行风险。他们的报告称，随着疫情的持续，“群体免疫仍然难以捉摸”。</blockquote> Risks on both sides of the tightrope could be catalysts for market shocks.<blockquote>走钢丝两边的风险都可能成为市场震荡的催化剂。</blockquote> “Fragility will strike again, as valuations and positioning look stretched,” the analysts warned. “Trading liquidity continues to be poor.”<blockquote>分析师警告称：“随着估值和定位看起来捉襟见肘，脆弱性将再次袭来。”“交易流动性持续不佳。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beware heightened risks of ‘fragility shocks’ in a market too dependent on the Fed, BofA warns<blockquote>美国银行警告称，在过于依赖美联储的市场中，谨防“脆弱性冲击”的风险增加</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeware heightened risks of ‘fragility shocks’ in a market too dependent on the Fed, BofA warns<blockquote>美国银行警告称，在过于依赖美联储的市场中，谨防“脆弱性冲击”的风险增加</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-05-12 18:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n Investors will likely need ‘to walk a Goldilocks tightrope’ this summer, say analysts at Bank of America. Fragility risks in the market are at the highest ever, as investors keep looking to the Federal Reserve to extend a massive stock-market rally thatrepeatedly has risen to fresh recordsthis year, according to analysts at Bank of America Corp.<blockquote>美国银行分析师表示，今年夏天投资者可能需要“走钢丝”。美国银行(Bank of America Corp.)分析师表示，市场的脆弱性风险处于历史最高水平，因为投资者一直期待美联储延长股市的大规模涨势，今年股市多次升至新纪录。</blockquote> “Markets remain overly dependent on the Fed and are inherently fragile,” the bank’s equity-linked analysts said in a BofA Global Research note Tuesday. Two of the four biggest “fragility shocks” since 1928 were seen in the S&amp;P 500 index in just the last three and a half years, they said in the equity derivatives report.<blockquote>该行股票相关分析师周二在美国银行全球研究报告中表示：“市场仍然过度依赖美联储，并且本质上很脆弱。”他们在股票衍生品报告中表示，自1928年以来四次最大的“脆弱性冲击”中有两次出现在标普500指数中，仅在过去三年半的时间里。</blockquote> Thestock market is vulnerableafter staging a huge recovery from last year’s trough in the Covid-19-induced selloff — a downturn that prompted the Fed to swoop in with rescue programs designed to support markets and an imperiled economy. The S&amp;P 500 has soared nearly 90% from the Covid low for the second-fastest rally for U.S. equities since 1928, the BofA Global Research report shows.<blockquote>股市在从去年Covid-19引发的抛售中的低谷中大幅复苏后变得脆弱——这场低迷促使美联储采取旨在支持市场和陷入困境的经济的救援计划。美国银行全球研究报告显示，标普500较新冠疫情低点飙升近90%，创1928年以来美股第二快涨幅。</blockquote> Investors have worried thatsigns of rising inflationin the economic rebound could result in the Fed tapering its asset purchases or raising its benchmark interest rate sooner than anticipated. One concern is that a less accommodative Fed couldhurt the valuations of high growth stocks.<blockquote>投资者担心，经济反弹中通胀上升的迹象可能会导致美联储比预期更早缩减资产购买规模或提高基准利率。一个担忧是，美联储不那么宽松可能会损害高增长股票的估值。</blockquote> The market’s reaction to a weaker-than-anticipated jobs report on Friday underscored its reliance on the Fed, as the“bad news” was treated as “good news,”according to the analysts, who pointed to the jump that day in the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index. In other words, stock-market investors took thedisappointing jobs reportas reason for the central bank to remain dovish.<blockquote>分析师表示，市场对周五弱于预期的就业报告的反应凸显了其对美联储的依赖，因为“坏消息”被视为“好消息”，他们指出当天股市上涨以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数。换句话说，股市投资者将令人失望的就业报告视为央行保持鸽派立场的理由。</blockquote> “The Fed has their pedal to the metal trying to restore the pre-Covid labour market,” the analysts wrote. “While the Fed can’t afford to appear uncertain, their dogmatic confidence that inflation won’t become problematic is equally suspect.”<blockquote>分析师写道：“美联储正在全力以赴，试图恢复新冠疫情爆发前的劳动力市场。”“虽然美联储不能表现得不确定，但他们对通胀不会成为问题的教条信心同样值得怀疑。”</blockquote> U.S. stocks fell Monday and extended losses into Tuesday. The Nasdaq Composite indexCOMP,-0.09%was down 0.2% in afternoon trading, while the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.87%fell 1% and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.36%was 1.5% lower.<blockquote>美国股市周一下跌，并将跌幅延续至周二。纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-0.09%在下午交易中下跌0.2%，标准普尔500SPX,-0.87%下跌1%，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,-1.36%下跌1.5%。</blockquote> “Markets will likely need to walk a Goldilocks tightrope over the summer,” the Bank of America analysts said.&nbsp;That means investors will need to navigate increasingly “tricky territory” where they’re avoiding both the upsiderisks of inflationand overheating as well as the downside risk that “herd immunity remains elusive” as the pandemic persists, according to their note.<blockquote>美国银行分析师表示：“今年夏天，市场可能需要走钢丝。”这意味着投资者将需要在日益“棘手的领域”航行，既要避免通胀和过热的上行风险，也要避免下行风险。他们的报告称，随着疫情的持续，“群体免疫仍然难以捉摸”。</blockquote> Risks on both sides of the tightrope could be catalysts for market shocks.<blockquote>走钢丝两边的风险都可能成为市场震荡的催化剂。</blockquote> “Fragility will strike again, as valuations and positioning look stretched,” the analysts warned. “Trading liquidity continues to be poor.”<blockquote>分析师警告称：“随着估值和定位看起来捉襟见肘，脆弱性将再次袭来。”“交易流动性持续不佳。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beware-heightened-risks-of-fragility-shocks-in-a-market-too-dependent-on-the-fed-bofa-warns-11620758626?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beware-heightened-risks-of-fragility-shocks-in-a-market-too-dependent-on-the-fed-bofa-warns-11620758626?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173522983","content_text":"Investors will likely need ‘to walk a Goldilocks tightrope’ this summer, say analysts at Bank of America.\n\nFragility risks in the market are at the highest ever, as investors keep looking to the Federal Reserve to extend a massive stock-market rally thatrepeatedly has risen to fresh recordsthis year, according to analysts at Bank of America Corp.\n“Markets remain overly dependent on the Fed and are inherently fragile,” the bank’s equity-linked analysts said in a BofA Global Research note Tuesday. Two of the four biggest “fragility shocks” since 1928 were seen in the S&P 500 index in just the last three and a half years, they said in the equity derivatives report.\nThestock market is vulnerableafter staging a huge recovery from last year’s trough in the Covid-19-induced selloff — a downturn that prompted the Fed to swoop in with rescue programs designed to support markets and an imperiled economy. The S&P 500 has soared nearly 90% from the Covid low for the second-fastest rally for U.S. equities since 1928, the BofA Global Research report shows.\nInvestors have worried thatsigns of rising inflationin the economic rebound could result in the Fed tapering its asset purchases or raising its benchmark interest rate sooner than anticipated. One concern is that a less accommodative Fed couldhurt the valuations of high growth stocks.\nThe market’s reaction to a weaker-than-anticipated jobs report on Friday underscored its reliance on the Fed, as the“bad news” was treated as “good news,”according to the analysts, who pointed to the jump that day in the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index. In other words, stock-market investors took thedisappointing jobs reportas reason for the central bank to remain dovish.\n“The Fed has their pedal to the metal trying to restore the pre-Covid labour market,” the analysts wrote. “While the Fed can’t afford to appear uncertain, their dogmatic confidence that inflation won’t become problematic is equally suspect.”\nU.S. stocks fell Monday and extended losses into Tuesday. The Nasdaq Composite indexCOMP,-0.09%was down 0.2% in afternoon trading, while the S&P 500SPX,-0.87%fell 1% and the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-1.36%was 1.5% lower.\n“Markets will likely need to walk a Goldilocks tightrope over the summer,” the Bank of America analysts said. That means investors will need to navigate increasingly “tricky territory” where they’re avoiding both the upsiderisks of inflationand overheating as well as the downside risk that “herd immunity remains elusive” as the pandemic persists, according to their note.\nRisks on both sides of the tightrope could be catalysts for market shocks.\n“Fragility will strike again, as valuations and positioning look stretched,” the analysts warned. “Trading liquidity continues to be poor.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/193716433"}