Reply me pls_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-05-17

Reply me pls

Cryptocurrencies: Bubble Or A New FX Frontier?<blockquote>加密货币：泡沫还是新的外汇前沿？</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":195366524,"tweetId":"195366524","gmtCreate":1621258482068,"gmtModify":1634192985909,"author":{"id":3562077406337898,"idStr":"3562077406337898","authorId":3562077406337898,"authorIdStr":"3562077406337898","name":"52b8d7b","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Reply me pls</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Reply me pls</body></html>","text":"Reply me pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195366524","repostId":1174511572,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174511572","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1621258154,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174511572?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-17 21:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cryptocurrencies: Bubble Or A New FX Frontier?<blockquote>加密货币：泡沫还是新的外汇前沿？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174511572","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"This article was written exclusively for Investing.com.\n\nAre cryptos currencies, commodities, or som","content":"This article was written exclusively for Investing.com.<blockquote>本文专为Investing.com撰写。</blockquote> <ul> <li>Are cryptos currencies, commodities, or something else?</li> <li>Regulators need to answer one key question</li> <li>Blockchain is changing past business notions</li> <li>US SEC likely to take a leadership role, but that might not be sufficient</li> <li>The wild ride is likely to continue; Governments and regulators hold the key to cooling the volatility</li> </ul> As technology stocks exploded to remarkable heights in the 1990s, Fed chief at the time, Alan Greenspan, called the price action “irrational exuberance.” But today, that term seems too mild for the trajectory of the digital currency asset class over the past months and years.<blockquote><ul><li>加密货币是货币、商品还是其他什么？</li><li>监管机构需要回答一个关键问题</li><li>区块链正在改变过去的商业观念</li><li>美国证券交易委员会可能发挥领导作用，但这可能还不够</li><li>狂野之旅可能会继续；政府和监管机构掌握着冷却波动性的关键</li></ul>随着科技股在20世纪90年代飙升至惊人高度，时任美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)将价格走势称为“非理性繁荣.”但如今，对于数字货币资产类别过去几个月和几年的发展轨迹来说，这个词似乎过于温和。</blockquote> In 2010, a&nbsp;Bitcoin&nbsp;token sold for five cents. At the recent high of over $65,500 on Apr. 14, a one-dollar investment back then in the leading cryptocurrency was worth over $1.3 million.<blockquote>2010年，一枚比特币代币售价为5美分。在4月14日超过65,500美元的近期高点时，当时对领先加密货币的1美元投资价值超过130万美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfc7c799fa2caacfca70923fdc777317\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"1094\">Ethereum Daily<blockquote>以太币日报</blockquote> In October 2015,Ethereum&nbsp;was at around 55 cents per coin. A $100 investment at that time was worth over $660,000 at the May 6, $3642.25 peak.<blockquote>2015年10月，以太币的价格约为每枚55美分。当时100美元的投资在5月6日达到3642.25美元的峰值时价值超过66万美元。</blockquote> While incredible returns in cryptocurrencies are more than bubblicious, the asset class’s market cap at the $2.4 trillion level was only slightly higher than the leading publicly traded company, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). As of the end of last week, APPL’s valuation was at the $2.085 trillion level. For an entire asset class, a market cap of $2.29 trillion may not signal bubble territory, according to many of the market’s devotees.<blockquote>尽管加密货币令人难以置信的回报不仅仅是泡沫，但该资产类别2.4万亿美元的市值仅略高于领先的上市公司苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）。截至上周末，APPL的估值处于2.085万亿美元的水平。许多市场爱好者表示，对于整个资产类别来说，2.29万亿美元的市值可能并不意味着泡沫区域。</blockquote> Digital currencies are a libertarian response to government control of the money supply. Many see these tokens as the offspring of our technological era, since cryptocurrencies reflect a shift towards Fintech.<blockquote>数字货币是对政府控制货币供应的自由主义回应。许多人将这些代币视为我们技术时代的产物，因为加密货币反映了向金融科技的转变。</blockquote> When it comes to “irrational exuberance,” the rise in their value has created an environment of greed where market participants are investing in tokens and hoping for Bitcoin-like returns. The latest digital currency success story has beenDogecoin, whichbeganas a joke.<blockquote>当谈到“非理性繁荣，“它们价值的上涨创造了一个贪婪的环境，市场参与者正在投资代币，并希望获得类似比特币的回报。最新的数字货币成功故事是Endogecoin，它最初是一个笑话。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42b9055473613d2667d3ca1aa626b7c4\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"1094\">Dogecoin Daily<blockquote>狗狗币日报</blockquote> After trading at a fraction of a cent in late 2020, the price, at the end of last week, was over the 54 cent level. The digital token's market cap was over $70 billion, making Dogecoin the fourth leading crypto, which is far from a joke.<blockquote>在2020年底交易价格为不到1美分后，上周末价格已超过54美分。这种数字代币的市值超过700亿美元，使Dogecoin成为第四大加密货币，这绝非玩笑。</blockquote> Each day, the cryptocurrency asset class is reaching new levels of acceptance. Regulators in the US and Europe will need to decide if the asset class is a commodity, a currency, or something else. Meanwhile, time will tell if the price appreciation is a bubble or a new frontier that will change the way money flows worldwide.<blockquote>每天，加密货币资产类别的接受度都在达到新的水平。美国和欧洲的监管机构将需要决定该资产类别是商品、货币还是其他资产。与此同时，时间会证明价格上涨是一个泡沫，还是一个将改变全球资金流动方式的新领域。</blockquote> Are cryptos currencies, commodities, or something else?<blockquote>加密货币是货币、商品还是其他什么？</blockquote> In 2017, when the CFTC decided to allow the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and other exchanges to listBitcoin futures, it took the position that the cryptocurrencies were commodities. It is challenging to pigeonhole the burgeoning asset class as they have idiosyncratic characteristics similar to commodities, given their penchant for price volatility.<blockquote>2017年，当CFTC决定允许芝加哥商品交易所（CME）和其他交易所上市比特币期货时，它采取了加密货币是商品的立场。对这一新兴资产类别进行分类具有挑战性，因为鉴于它们对价格波动的偏好，它们具有类似于大宗商品的特殊特征。</blockquote> They are also exchange instruments with many commonalities with foreign exchange instruments. Cryptos are unique, which makes them hard to fathom for market traditionalists.<blockquote>它们也是交换工具，与外汇工具有许多共同点。密码是独一无二的，这使得市场传统主义者很难理解它们。</blockquote> At the same time, there is broad agreement that blockchain technology, the child of Bitcoin, revolutionizes payments and record keeping. The tokens that gave birth to Fintech is another story.<blockquote>与此同时，人们普遍认为，比特币的产物区块链技术彻底改变了支付和记录保存。催生金融科技的代币是另一回事。</blockquote> In 2017, JP Morgan Chase’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, said that Bitcoin and digital currencies were a “fraud.” At the time, he said that anyone at his bank caught trading Bitcoin or the other novel instruments would be fired on the spot.<blockquote>2017年，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示，比特币和数字货币是“诈骗当时，他说，在他的银行里，任何被抓到交易比特币或其他新奇工具的人都会被当场解雇。</blockquote> Warren Buffet, the much-followed value investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa), called Bitcoin financial “rat poison squared.”<blockquote>备受关注的价值投资者、Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE：BRKa)首席执行官Warren Buffet称比特币金融“老鼠药平方.”</blockquote> Four years later, Jamie Dimon is singing a different tune as JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is opening a fund for its high net worth customers to invest in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, Mr. Buffet appears to be sticking to his guns. This month, his partner, Charlie Munger, doubled down by saying that digital currencies are “disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization.”<blockquote>四年后，杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)唱起了不同的曲调，摩根大通(NYSE：JPM)为其高净值客户开设了一只投资加密货币的基金。与此同时，巴菲特似乎坚持自己的立场。本月，他的合伙人查理·芒格加倍表示，数字货币是“令人厌恶且违背文明利益.”</blockquote> There are now futures contracts on BitcoinandEthereumtrading on CME. On May 3, the CME rolled out amicro Bitcoin contractwith lower initial margin requirements to increase the addressable market for trading.<blockquote>比特币现在有期货合约和CME上的以太坊交易。5月3日，芝商所推出了初始保证金要求较低的微型比特币合约，以增加交易的目标市场。</blockquote> Coinbase’s (NASDAQ:COIN) listing on NASDAQ made the platform for over-the-counter digital currency trading, investing, and services, a publicly traded exchange worth nearly $48 billion at $258.37 per share at the end of last week. Meanwhile, the CME and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), two leading traditional exchange platforms, had market caps of $77.92 billion and $63.74 billion, respectively. It took the CME and ICE around two decades to reach these market caps; COIN did it in one month.<blockquote>Coinbase（纳斯达克：COIN）在纳斯达克上市，成为场外数字货币交易、投资和服务平台，截至上周末，该公开交易交易所价值近480亿美元，每股258.37美元。与此同时，CME和洲际交易所（ICE）这两个领先的传统交易所平台的市值分别为779.2亿美元和637.4亿美元。CME和ICE花了大约二十年的时间才达到这些市值；硬币一个月就做到了。</blockquote> On Apr. 14, COIN’s market cap reached an incredible $100 billion on the first day of trading.<blockquote>4月14日，COIN的市值在交易首日就达到了令人难以置信的1000亿美元。</blockquote> Regulators need to answer one key question<blockquote>监管机构需要回答一个关键问题</blockquote> No one is arguing that cryptocurrencies are not a unique asset class. The demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the other over 9,820 coins and growing is rising. The market cap was over the $2.29 trillion level last week as it recently rose above the world’s leading company, Apple.<blockquote>没有人认为加密货币不是一种独特的资产类别。对比特币、以太币和其他超过9820枚硬币的需求正在上升。上周市值超过2.29万亿美元，最近超过了全球领先公司苹果。</blockquote> Regulators need to define this asset class before they can regulate it effectively. One of the global regulatory environment's critical issues is that the philosophy that underlies cryptocurrencies is a libertarian rejection of government involvement in money.<blockquote>监管机构需要对这一资产类别进行定义，然后才能对其进行有效监管。全球监管环境的关键问题之一是，加密货币背后的理念是自由主义拒绝政府参与货币事务。</blockquote> This ideology could be a challenging hump to overcome. Once past that issue, custody and security are issues.<blockquote>这种意识形态可能是一个需要克服的挑战。一旦过了这个问题，监护权和安全就是问题了。</blockquote> On the face of it, the recent hack of the Colonial pipeline that brings gasoline to the US East Coast may have nothing to do with cryptocurrencies. Still, it raises the issue of computer hackers’ ability to crack into energy flows critical to a country’s national security.<blockquote>从表面上看，最近向美国东海岸输送汽油的Colonial管道遭到黑客攻击，可能与加密货币无关。尽管如此，它还是提出了计算机黑客破解对一个国家的国家安全至关重要的能源流的能力问题。</blockquote> Custody and security for computer wallets holding trillions in value is a substantial, and in some ways similar issue facing regulators, who see their job as “protecting the public.” Moreover, it may not be in a government’s best interest to give up control of the money supply as the use of cryptos in the global financial system grows.<blockquote>价值数万亿美元的计算机钱包的保管和安全是监管机构面临的一个重大问题，在某些方面也是类似的问题，他们认为自己的工作是“保护公众.“此外，随着加密货币在全球金融体系中的使用不断增加，放弃对货币供应的控制可能不符合政府的最佳利益。</blockquote> After all, controlling short-term interest rates, influencing rates further out along the yield curve, and the ability to expand or contract the amount of currency in the financial system are critical monetary and fiscal policy tools. Indeed, regulators have their hands full defining the cryptocurrency asset class as it does not fit easily into any existing regulatory verticals.<blockquote>毕竟，控制短期利率、沿着收益率曲线进一步影响利率以及扩大或收缩金融体系中货币数量的能力是关键的货币和财政政策工具。事实上，监管机构正忙着定义加密货币资产类别，因为它不容易适应任何现有的监管垂直领域。</blockquote> Blockchain is changing past business notions<blockquote>区块链正在改变过去的商业观念</blockquote> Blockchain is a complex core component of the digital currency asset class. However, it is a basic and straightforward notion that also drives Fintech. A blockchain is a list of transactions that anyone can view and verify. It is transactional history.<blockquote>区块链是数字货币资产类别的复杂核心组件。然而，这是一个基本而简单的概念，也推动了金融科技的发展。区块链是任何人都可以查看和验证的交易列表。这是交易历史。</blockquote> The Bitcoin blockchain contains a record of every time a party sent or received Bitcoin. Almost all cryptocurrencies are secured via blockchain networks, but blockchain has applications far beyond the cryptos.<blockquote>比特币区块链包含一方每次发送或接收比特币的记录。几乎所有的加密货币都通过区块链网络得到保护，但区块链的应用远远超出了加密货币。</blockquote> Payments via blockchain are more secure than standard debit or credit card transactions. Moreover, accuracy is constantly verified by a massive level of computing power, increasing the speed and efficiency of the payment system.<blockquote>通过区块链支付比标准借记卡或信用卡交易更安全。此外，准确性不断得到海量计算能力的验证，提高了支付系统的速度和效率。</blockquote> The blockchain also eliminates the need for third-party processors. Sensitive information is omitted, providing a level of identity protection. While no system is foolproof, blockchain technology is the core concept of Fintech and improves the antiquated way of doing business.<blockquote>区块链还消除了对第三方处理器的需求。敏感信息被省略，提供了一定程度的身份保护。虽然没有一个系统是万无一失的，但区块链技术是金融科技的核心概念，并改善了过时的做生意方式。</blockquote> US SEC likely to take a leadership role, but that might not be sufficient<blockquote>美国证券交易委员会可能发挥领导作用，但这可能还不够</blockquote> Gary Gensler is now the Biden Administration's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman, and he is no stranger to Fintech. Under his stewardship at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) during the Obama administration, Gensler vetted Bitcoin futures that appeared on the CME in late 2017. During his hiatus from the regulatory community, he was professor Gensler at MIT, teaching a Fintech course.<blockquote>Gary Gensler现在是拜登政府的证券交易委员会（SEC）主席，他对金融科技并不陌生。在奥巴马政府期间，詹斯勒在商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的管理下，审查了2017年底出现在芝加哥商品交易所的比特币期货。在离开监管界期间，他是麻省理工学院的詹斯勒教授，教授金融科技课程。</blockquote> At the SEC, he is not in the hot seat for creating a regulatory protocol for cryptocurrencies. As the interest in the sector expands, more companies now accept cryptos as payments. And Coinbase is now a publicly traded exchange.<blockquote>在美国证券交易委员会，他并没有因为制定加密货币监管协议而陷入困境。随着对该行业兴趣的扩大，越来越多的公司现在接受加密货币作为支付方式。Coinbase现在是一家公开交易的交易所。</blockquote> The SEC is currently vetting applications for cryptocurrency ETF and ETN products. Once approved, they would likely exponentially increase the addressable market for trading and investing.<blockquote>SEC目前正在审查加密货币ETF和ETN产品的申请。一旦获得批准，它们可能会成倍增加交易和投资的潜在市场。</blockquote> The Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell's answer to a question about a digitaldollarwill probably also define the SEC’s approach under Chairman Gensler. In late April, Powell said it is important not to rush but rather to get it “right.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对有关数字美元问题的回答可能也将决定美国证券交易委员会主席詹斯勒领导下的做法。四月下旬，鲍威尔表示，重要的是不要着急，而是要得到它”正确的.”</blockquote> The process for ETFs and ETNs is likely to move at a snail’s pace at the SEC as they attempt to define precisely in what financial vertical cryptos belong. They have characteristics of commodities and currencies but are different as well. We could see the SEC pass the ball with a recommendation to create a Fintech regulator independent from the CFTC and SEC.<blockquote>SEC试图准确定义金融垂直加密货币的归属，因此ETF和ETN的流程可能会进展缓慢。它们具有商品和货币的特征，但也有所不同。我们可能会看到SEC建议创建一个独立于CFTC和SEC的金融科技监管机构。</blockquote> While the US is a leader in the global economy, cryptocurrencies transcend borders. Any regulatory effort would be incomplete if it did not have cross-border coordination and cooperation. Though the US, EU, UK, and Japan would likely cooperate on the regulation of digital currencies, China, Russia, and other countries could pose more than a challenge.<blockquote>虽然美国是全球经济的领导者，但加密货币超越了国界。如果没有跨境协调与合作，任何监管努力都是不完整的。尽管美国、欧盟、英国和日本可能会在数字货币监管方面进行合作，但中国、俄罗斯和其他国家可能带来的挑战不仅仅是挑战。</blockquote> A global regulatory approach would be like herding cats with conflicting interests from vastly different political and economic systems. The potential for global harmony is a pipedream.<blockquote>全球监管方法就像放牧来自截然不同的政治和经济体系的利益冲突的猫。全球和谐的潜力是一个白日梦。</blockquote> The wild ride is likely to continue; Governments and regulators hold the key to cooling the volatility<blockquote>狂野之旅可能会继续；政府和监管机构掌握着冷却波动性的关键</blockquote> If Charlie Munger has his way, governments will outlaw the cryptocurrency asset class. While US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde consistently cite the nefarious aspects of the asset class, their true motivation is likely to retain power through control of the money supply.<blockquote>如果查理·芒格如愿以偿，各国政府将取缔加密货币资产类别。尽管美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）和欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德（Christine Lagarde）一直列举该资产类别的邪恶方面，但他们的真正动机可能是通过控制货币供应来保留权力。</blockquote> Government officials favor the status quo, declining to shift towards a global currency market that transcends their influence and strips power from policymakers. Nonetheless, China is proceeding in rolling out adigital yuan. The US and EU are likely to follow, albeit slowly.<blockquote>政府官员倾向于维持现状，拒绝转向超越他们影响力并剥夺政策制定者权力的全球货币市场。尽管如此，中国正在继续推出数字人民币。美国和欧盟可能会效仿，尽管速度很慢。</blockquote> Meanwhile, governments and regulators hold the key to cooling volatility. The highest the digital currency market cap grows, the greater the pressure to regulate will become.<blockquote>与此同时，政府和监管机构掌握着冷却波动性的关键。数字货币市值增长得越高，监管压力就越大。</blockquote> However, any event that undermines the asset class over the coming weeks or months would give regulators more time. In 2014, the Mount Gox hack slowed down Bitcoin's growth for a few years. Last week’s Colonial pipeline hack in the US is a warning to those holding substantial wealth in computer wallets that they are not secure.<blockquote>然而，未来几周或几个月内任何破坏该资产类别的事件都会给监管机构更多时间。2014年，Mount Gox黑客事件让比特币的增长放缓了几年。上周发生在美国的Colonial pipeline黑客攻击事件向那些在电脑钱包中持有大量财富的人发出了警告，他们并不安全。</blockquote> I see three significant aspects to the Fintech revolution and the rise of cryptocurrencies:<blockquote>我认为金融科技革命和加密货币崛起有三个重要方面：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Blockchain is already widely accepted as financial evolution rather than a revolution.</li> <li>The growing number of companies and services accepting the tokens only adds to the market’s growth and supports the use of cryptos as a means of exchange.</li> <li>Perhaps most significantly, given the parabolic price moves, there's the speculative element.</li> </ol> Human nature drives us to markets that offer fantastic returns and “easy money” whether that seems believable or not.&nbsp;Over my lifetime, few markets have moved to levels where a one-dollar investment could be worth over $1 million in the space of eleven years.<blockquote><ol><li>区块链已经被广泛认为是金融进化而不是革命。</li><li>越来越多的公司和服务接受代币只会增加市场的增长，并支持使用密码作为交换手段。</li><li>也许最重要的是，考虑到抛物线价格走势，存在投机因素。</li></ol>人性驱使我们进入提供丰厚回报的市场，“轻松赚钱“不管这看起来是否可信。在我的一生中，很少有市场能够在11年内达到一美元投资价值超过100万美元的水平。</blockquote> The potential of those types of returns and a market with over 9,800 tokens will continue to fuel a speculative frenzy until the asset class is defined, regulated, and controlled—if that is possible. While cryptocurrencies face more than a few issues, the ideology and philosophy that rejects government control could be a wall too high to scale.<blockquote>这些类型的回报的潜力和拥有超过9,800种代币的市场将继续助长投机狂潮，直到资产类别得到定义、监管和控制——如果可能的话。虽然加密货币面临不少问题，但拒绝政府控制的意识形态和哲学可能是一堵太高而无法扩展的墙。</blockquote> Are cryptocurrencies a bubble or a new currency frontier? They may be a bit of both wrapped in an enigma that questions economic and political conventions.<blockquote>加密货币是泡沫还是新的货币前沿？他们可能两者都笼罩在一个质疑经济和政治惯例的谜中。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cryptocurrencies: Bubble Or A New FX Frontier?<blockquote>加密货币：泡沫还是新的外汇前沿？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCryptocurrencies: Bubble Or A New FX Frontier?<blockquote>加密货币：泡沫还是新的外汇前沿？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n英为财情Investing \n2021-05-17 21:29\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThis article was written exclusively for Investing.com.<blockquote>本文专为Investing.com撰写。</blockquote> <ul> <li>Are cryptos currencies, commodities, or something else?</li> <li>Regulators need to answer one key question</li> <li>Blockchain is changing past business notions</li> <li>US SEC likely to take a leadership role, but that might not be sufficient</li> <li>The wild ride is likely to continue; Governments and regulators hold the key to cooling the volatility</li> </ul> As technology stocks exploded to remarkable heights in the 1990s, Fed chief at the time, Alan Greenspan, called the price action “irrational exuberance.” But today, that term seems too mild for the trajectory of the digital currency asset class over the past months and years.<blockquote><ul><li>加密货币是货币、商品还是其他什么？</li><li>监管机构需要回答一个关键问题</li><li>区块链正在改变过去的商业观念</li><li>美国证券交易委员会可能发挥领导作用，但这可能还不够</li><li>狂野之旅可能会继续；政府和监管机构掌握着冷却波动性的关键</li></ul>随着科技股在20世纪90年代飙升至惊人高度，时任美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)将价格走势称为“非理性繁荣.”但如今，对于数字货币资产类别过去几个月和几年的发展轨迹来说，这个词似乎过于温和。</blockquote> In 2010, a&nbsp;Bitcoin&nbsp;token sold for five cents. At the recent high of over $65,500 on Apr. 14, a one-dollar investment back then in the leading cryptocurrency was worth over $1.3 million.<blockquote>2010年，一枚比特币代币售价为5美分。在4月14日超过65,500美元的近期高点时，当时对领先加密货币的1美元投资价值超过130万美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfc7c799fa2caacfca70923fdc777317\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"1094\">Ethereum Daily<blockquote>以太币日报</blockquote> In October 2015,Ethereum&nbsp;was at around 55 cents per coin. A $100 investment at that time was worth over $660,000 at the May 6, $3642.25 peak.<blockquote>2015年10月，以太币的价格约为每枚55美分。当时100美元的投资在5月6日达到3642.25美元的峰值时价值超过66万美元。</blockquote> While incredible returns in cryptocurrencies are more than bubblicious, the asset class’s market cap at the $2.4 trillion level was only slightly higher than the leading publicly traded company, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). As of the end of last week, APPL’s valuation was at the $2.085 trillion level. For an entire asset class, a market cap of $2.29 trillion may not signal bubble territory, according to many of the market’s devotees.<blockquote>尽管加密货币令人难以置信的回报不仅仅是泡沫，但该资产类别2.4万亿美元的市值仅略高于领先的上市公司苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）。截至上周末，APPL的估值处于2.085万亿美元的水平。许多市场爱好者表示，对于整个资产类别来说，2.29万亿美元的市值可能并不意味着泡沫区域。</blockquote> Digital currencies are a libertarian response to government control of the money supply. Many see these tokens as the offspring of our technological era, since cryptocurrencies reflect a shift towards Fintech.<blockquote>数字货币是对政府控制货币供应的自由主义回应。许多人将这些代币视为我们技术时代的产物，因为加密货币反映了向金融科技的转变。</blockquote> When it comes to “irrational exuberance,” the rise in their value has created an environment of greed where market participants are investing in tokens and hoping for Bitcoin-like returns. The latest digital currency success story has beenDogecoin, whichbeganas a joke.<blockquote>当谈到“非理性繁荣，“它们价值的上涨创造了一个贪婪的环境，市场参与者正在投资代币，并希望获得类似比特币的回报。最新的数字货币成功故事是Endogecoin，它最初是一个笑话。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42b9055473613d2667d3ca1aa626b7c4\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"1094\">Dogecoin Daily<blockquote>狗狗币日报</blockquote> After trading at a fraction of a cent in late 2020, the price, at the end of last week, was over the 54 cent level. The digital token's market cap was over $70 billion, making Dogecoin the fourth leading crypto, which is far from a joke.<blockquote>在2020年底交易价格为不到1美分后，上周末价格已超过54美分。这种数字代币的市值超过700亿美元，使Dogecoin成为第四大加密货币，这绝非玩笑。</blockquote> Each day, the cryptocurrency asset class is reaching new levels of acceptance. Regulators in the US and Europe will need to decide if the asset class is a commodity, a currency, or something else. Meanwhile, time will tell if the price appreciation is a bubble or a new frontier that will change the way money flows worldwide.<blockquote>每天，加密货币资产类别的接受度都在达到新的水平。美国和欧洲的监管机构将需要决定该资产类别是商品、货币还是其他资产。与此同时，时间会证明价格上涨是一个泡沫，还是一个将改变全球资金流动方式的新领域。</blockquote> Are cryptos currencies, commodities, or something else?<blockquote>加密货币是货币、商品还是其他什么？</blockquote> In 2017, when the CFTC decided to allow the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and other exchanges to listBitcoin futures, it took the position that the cryptocurrencies were commodities. It is challenging to pigeonhole the burgeoning asset class as they have idiosyncratic characteristics similar to commodities, given their penchant for price volatility.<blockquote>2017年，当CFTC决定允许芝加哥商品交易所（CME）和其他交易所上市比特币期货时，它采取了加密货币是商品的立场。对这一新兴资产类别进行分类具有挑战性，因为鉴于它们对价格波动的偏好，它们具有类似于大宗商品的特殊特征。</blockquote> They are also exchange instruments with many commonalities with foreign exchange instruments. Cryptos are unique, which makes them hard to fathom for market traditionalists.<blockquote>它们也是交换工具，与外汇工具有许多共同点。密码是独一无二的，这使得市场传统主义者很难理解它们。</blockquote> At the same time, there is broad agreement that blockchain technology, the child of Bitcoin, revolutionizes payments and record keeping. The tokens that gave birth to Fintech is another story.<blockquote>与此同时，人们普遍认为，比特币的产物区块链技术彻底改变了支付和记录保存。催生金融科技的代币是另一回事。</blockquote> In 2017, JP Morgan Chase’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, said that Bitcoin and digital currencies were a “fraud.” At the time, he said that anyone at his bank caught trading Bitcoin or the other novel instruments would be fired on the spot.<blockquote>2017年，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示，比特币和数字货币是“诈骗当时，他说，在他的银行里，任何被抓到交易比特币或其他新奇工具的人都会被当场解雇。</blockquote> Warren Buffet, the much-followed value investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa), called Bitcoin financial “rat poison squared.”<blockquote>备受关注的价值投资者、Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE：BRKa)首席执行官Warren Buffet称比特币金融“老鼠药平方.”</blockquote> Four years later, Jamie Dimon is singing a different tune as JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is opening a fund for its high net worth customers to invest in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, Mr. Buffet appears to be sticking to his guns. This month, his partner, Charlie Munger, doubled down by saying that digital currencies are “disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization.”<blockquote>四年后，杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)唱起了不同的曲调，摩根大通(NYSE：JPM)为其高净值客户开设了一只投资加密货币的基金。与此同时，巴菲特似乎坚持自己的立场。本月，他的合伙人查理·芒格加倍表示，数字货币是“令人厌恶且违背文明利益.”</blockquote> There are now futures contracts on BitcoinandEthereumtrading on CME. On May 3, the CME rolled out amicro Bitcoin contractwith lower initial margin requirements to increase the addressable market for trading.<blockquote>比特币现在有期货合约和CME上的以太坊交易。5月3日，芝商所推出了初始保证金要求较低的微型比特币合约，以增加交易的目标市场。</blockquote> Coinbase’s (NASDAQ:COIN) listing on NASDAQ made the platform for over-the-counter digital currency trading, investing, and services, a publicly traded exchange worth nearly $48 billion at $258.37 per share at the end of last week. Meanwhile, the CME and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), two leading traditional exchange platforms, had market caps of $77.92 billion and $63.74 billion, respectively. It took the CME and ICE around two decades to reach these market caps; COIN did it in one month.<blockquote>Coinbase（纳斯达克：COIN）在纳斯达克上市，成为场外数字货币交易、投资和服务平台，截至上周末，该公开交易交易所价值近480亿美元，每股258.37美元。与此同时，CME和洲际交易所（ICE）这两个领先的传统交易所平台的市值分别为779.2亿美元和637.4亿美元。CME和ICE花了大约二十年的时间才达到这些市值；硬币一个月就做到了。</blockquote> On Apr. 14, COIN’s market cap reached an incredible $100 billion on the first day of trading.<blockquote>4月14日，COIN的市值在交易首日就达到了令人难以置信的1000亿美元。</blockquote> Regulators need to answer one key question<blockquote>监管机构需要回答一个关键问题</blockquote> No one is arguing that cryptocurrencies are not a unique asset class. The demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the other over 9,820 coins and growing is rising. The market cap was over the $2.29 trillion level last week as it recently rose above the world’s leading company, Apple.<blockquote>没有人认为加密货币不是一种独特的资产类别。对比特币、以太币和其他超过9820枚硬币的需求正在上升。上周市值超过2.29万亿美元，最近超过了全球领先公司苹果。</blockquote> Regulators need to define this asset class before they can regulate it effectively. One of the global regulatory environment's critical issues is that the philosophy that underlies cryptocurrencies is a libertarian rejection of government involvement in money.<blockquote>监管机构需要对这一资产类别进行定义，然后才能对其进行有效监管。全球监管环境的关键问题之一是，加密货币背后的理念是自由主义拒绝政府参与货币事务。</blockquote> This ideology could be a challenging hump to overcome. Once past that issue, custody and security are issues.<blockquote>这种意识形态可能是一个需要克服的挑战。一旦过了这个问题，监护权和安全就是问题了。</blockquote> On the face of it, the recent hack of the Colonial pipeline that brings gasoline to the US East Coast may have nothing to do with cryptocurrencies. Still, it raises the issue of computer hackers’ ability to crack into energy flows critical to a country’s national security.<blockquote>从表面上看，最近向美国东海岸输送汽油的Colonial管道遭到黑客攻击，可能与加密货币无关。尽管如此，它还是提出了计算机黑客破解对一个国家的国家安全至关重要的能源流的能力问题。</blockquote> Custody and security for computer wallets holding trillions in value is a substantial, and in some ways similar issue facing regulators, who see their job as “protecting the public.” Moreover, it may not be in a government’s best interest to give up control of the money supply as the use of cryptos in the global financial system grows.<blockquote>价值数万亿美元的计算机钱包的保管和安全是监管机构面临的一个重大问题，在某些方面也是类似的问题，他们认为自己的工作是“保护公众.“此外，随着加密货币在全球金融体系中的使用不断增加，放弃对货币供应的控制可能不符合政府的最佳利益。</blockquote> After all, controlling short-term interest rates, influencing rates further out along the yield curve, and the ability to expand or contract the amount of currency in the financial system are critical monetary and fiscal policy tools. Indeed, regulators have their hands full defining the cryptocurrency asset class as it does not fit easily into any existing regulatory verticals.<blockquote>毕竟，控制短期利率、沿着收益率曲线进一步影响利率以及扩大或收缩金融体系中货币数量的能力是关键的货币和财政政策工具。事实上，监管机构正忙着定义加密货币资产类别，因为它不容易适应任何现有的监管垂直领域。</blockquote> Blockchain is changing past business notions<blockquote>区块链正在改变过去的商业观念</blockquote> Blockchain is a complex core component of the digital currency asset class. However, it is a basic and straightforward notion that also drives Fintech. A blockchain is a list of transactions that anyone can view and verify. It is transactional history.<blockquote>区块链是数字货币资产类别的复杂核心组件。然而，这是一个基本而简单的概念，也推动了金融科技的发展。区块链是任何人都可以查看和验证的交易列表。这是交易历史。</blockquote> The Bitcoin blockchain contains a record of every time a party sent or received Bitcoin. Almost all cryptocurrencies are secured via blockchain networks, but blockchain has applications far beyond the cryptos.<blockquote>比特币区块链包含一方每次发送或接收比特币的记录。几乎所有的加密货币都通过区块链网络得到保护，但区块链的应用远远超出了加密货币。</blockquote> Payments via blockchain are more secure than standard debit or credit card transactions. Moreover, accuracy is constantly verified by a massive level of computing power, increasing the speed and efficiency of the payment system.<blockquote>通过区块链支付比标准借记卡或信用卡交易更安全。此外，准确性不断得到海量计算能力的验证，提高了支付系统的速度和效率。</blockquote> The blockchain also eliminates the need for third-party processors. Sensitive information is omitted, providing a level of identity protection. While no system is foolproof, blockchain technology is the core concept of Fintech and improves the antiquated way of doing business.<blockquote>区块链还消除了对第三方处理器的需求。敏感信息被省略，提供了一定程度的身份保护。虽然没有一个系统是万无一失的，但区块链技术是金融科技的核心概念，并改善了过时的做生意方式。</blockquote> US SEC likely to take a leadership role, but that might not be sufficient<blockquote>美国证券交易委员会可能发挥领导作用，但这可能还不够</blockquote> Gary Gensler is now the Biden Administration's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman, and he is no stranger to Fintech. Under his stewardship at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) during the Obama administration, Gensler vetted Bitcoin futures that appeared on the CME in late 2017. During his hiatus from the regulatory community, he was professor Gensler at MIT, teaching a Fintech course.<blockquote>Gary Gensler现在是拜登政府的证券交易委员会（SEC）主席，他对金融科技并不陌生。在奥巴马政府期间，詹斯勒在商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的管理下，审查了2017年底出现在芝加哥商品交易所的比特币期货。在离开监管界期间，他是麻省理工学院的詹斯勒教授，教授金融科技课程。</blockquote> At the SEC, he is not in the hot seat for creating a regulatory protocol for cryptocurrencies. As the interest in the sector expands, more companies now accept cryptos as payments. And Coinbase is now a publicly traded exchange.<blockquote>在美国证券交易委员会，他并没有因为制定加密货币监管协议而陷入困境。随着对该行业兴趣的扩大，越来越多的公司现在接受加密货币作为支付方式。Coinbase现在是一家公开交易的交易所。</blockquote> The SEC is currently vetting applications for cryptocurrency ETF and ETN products. Once approved, they would likely exponentially increase the addressable market for trading and investing.<blockquote>SEC目前正在审查加密货币ETF和ETN产品的申请。一旦获得批准，它们可能会成倍增加交易和投资的潜在市场。</blockquote> The Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell's answer to a question about a digitaldollarwill probably also define the SEC’s approach under Chairman Gensler. In late April, Powell said it is important not to rush but rather to get it “right.”<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对有关数字美元问题的回答可能也将决定美国证券交易委员会主席詹斯勒领导下的做法。四月下旬，鲍威尔表示，重要的是不要着急，而是要得到它”正确的.”</blockquote> The process for ETFs and ETNs is likely to move at a snail’s pace at the SEC as they attempt to define precisely in what financial vertical cryptos belong. They have characteristics of commodities and currencies but are different as well. We could see the SEC pass the ball with a recommendation to create a Fintech regulator independent from the CFTC and SEC.<blockquote>SEC试图准确定义金融垂直加密货币的归属，因此ETF和ETN的流程可能会进展缓慢。它们具有商品和货币的特征，但也有所不同。我们可能会看到SEC建议创建一个独立于CFTC和SEC的金融科技监管机构。</blockquote> While the US is a leader in the global economy, cryptocurrencies transcend borders. Any regulatory effort would be incomplete if it did not have cross-border coordination and cooperation. Though the US, EU, UK, and Japan would likely cooperate on the regulation of digital currencies, China, Russia, and other countries could pose more than a challenge.<blockquote>虽然美国是全球经济的领导者，但加密货币超越了国界。如果没有跨境协调与合作，任何监管努力都是不完整的。尽管美国、欧盟、英国和日本可能会在数字货币监管方面进行合作，但中国、俄罗斯和其他国家可能带来的挑战不仅仅是挑战。</blockquote> A global regulatory approach would be like herding cats with conflicting interests from vastly different political and economic systems. The potential for global harmony is a pipedream.<blockquote>全球监管方法就像放牧来自截然不同的政治和经济体系的利益冲突的猫。全球和谐的潜力是一个白日梦。</blockquote> The wild ride is likely to continue; Governments and regulators hold the key to cooling the volatility<blockquote>狂野之旅可能会继续；政府和监管机构掌握着冷却波动性的关键</blockquote> If Charlie Munger has his way, governments will outlaw the cryptocurrency asset class. While US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde consistently cite the nefarious aspects of the asset class, their true motivation is likely to retain power through control of the money supply.<blockquote>如果查理·芒格如愿以偿，各国政府将取缔加密货币资产类别。尽管美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）和欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德（Christine Lagarde）一直列举该资产类别的邪恶方面，但他们的真正动机可能是通过控制货币供应来保留权力。</blockquote> Government officials favor the status quo, declining to shift towards a global currency market that transcends their influence and strips power from policymakers. Nonetheless, China is proceeding in rolling out adigital yuan. The US and EU are likely to follow, albeit slowly.<blockquote>政府官员倾向于维持现状，拒绝转向超越他们影响力并剥夺政策制定者权力的全球货币市场。尽管如此，中国正在继续推出数字人民币。美国和欧盟可能会效仿，尽管速度很慢。</blockquote> Meanwhile, governments and regulators hold the key to cooling volatility. The highest the digital currency market cap grows, the greater the pressure to regulate will become.<blockquote>与此同时，政府和监管机构掌握着冷却波动性的关键。数字货币市值增长得越高，监管压力就越大。</blockquote> However, any event that undermines the asset class over the coming weeks or months would give regulators more time. In 2014, the Mount Gox hack slowed down Bitcoin's growth for a few years. Last week’s Colonial pipeline hack in the US is a warning to those holding substantial wealth in computer wallets that they are not secure.<blockquote>然而，未来几周或几个月内任何破坏该资产类别的事件都会给监管机构更多时间。2014年，Mount Gox黑客事件让比特币的增长放缓了几年。上周发生在美国的Colonial pipeline黑客攻击事件向那些在电脑钱包中持有大量财富的人发出了警告，他们并不安全。</blockquote> I see three significant aspects to the Fintech revolution and the rise of cryptocurrencies:<blockquote>我认为金融科技革命和加密货币崛起有三个重要方面：</blockquote> <ol> <li>Blockchain is already widely accepted as financial evolution rather than a revolution.</li> <li>The growing number of companies and services accepting the tokens only adds to the market’s growth and supports the use of cryptos as a means of exchange.</li> <li>Perhaps most significantly, given the parabolic price moves, there's the speculative element.</li> </ol> Human nature drives us to markets that offer fantastic returns and “easy money” whether that seems believable or not.&nbsp;Over my lifetime, few markets have moved to levels where a one-dollar investment could be worth over $1 million in the space of eleven years.<blockquote><ol><li>区块链已经被广泛认为是金融进化而不是革命。</li><li>越来越多的公司和服务接受代币只会增加市场的增长，并支持使用密码作为交换手段。</li><li>也许最重要的是，考虑到抛物线价格走势，存在投机因素。</li></ol>人性驱使我们进入提供丰厚回报的市场，“轻松赚钱“不管这看起来是否可信。在我的一生中，很少有市场能够在11年内达到一美元投资价值超过100万美元的水平。</blockquote> The potential of those types of returns and a market with over 9,800 tokens will continue to fuel a speculative frenzy until the asset class is defined, regulated, and controlled—if that is possible. While cryptocurrencies face more than a few issues, the ideology and philosophy that rejects government control could be a wall too high to scale.<blockquote>这些类型的回报的潜力和拥有超过9,800种代币的市场将继续助长投机狂潮，直到资产类别得到定义、监管和控制——如果可能的话。虽然加密货币面临不少问题，但拒绝政府控制的意识形态和哲学可能是一堵太高而无法扩展的墙。</blockquote> Are cryptocurrencies a bubble or a new currency frontier? They may be a bit of both wrapped in an enigma that questions economic and political conventions.<blockquote>加密货币是泡沫还是新的货币前沿？他们可能两者都笼罩在一个质疑经济和政治惯例的谜中。</blockquote>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174511572","content_text":"This article was written exclusively for Investing.com.\n\nAre cryptos currencies, commodities, or something else?\nRegulators need to answer one key question\nBlockchain is changing past business notions\nUS SEC likely to take a leadership role, but that might not be sufficient\nThe wild ride is likely to continue; Governments and regulators hold the key to cooling the volatility\n\nAs technology stocks exploded to remarkable heights in the 1990s, Fed chief at the time, Alan Greenspan, called the price action “irrational exuberance.” But today, that term seems too mild for the trajectory of the digital currency asset class over the past months and years.\nIn 2010, a Bitcoin token sold for five cents. At the recent high of over $65,500 on Apr. 14, a one-dollar investment back then in the leading cryptocurrency was worth over $1.3 million.\nEthereum Daily\nIn October 2015,Ethereum was at around 55 cents per coin. A $100 investment at that time was worth over $660,000 at the May 6, $3642.25 peak.\nWhile incredible returns in cryptocurrencies are more than bubblicious, the asset class’s market cap at the $2.4 trillion level was only slightly higher than the leading publicly traded company, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). As of the end of last week, APPL’s valuation was at the $2.085 trillion level. For an entire asset class, a market cap of $2.29 trillion may not signal bubble territory, according to many of the market’s devotees.\nDigital currencies are a libertarian response to government control of the money supply. Many see these tokens as the offspring of our technological era, since cryptocurrencies reflect a shift towards Fintech.\nWhen it comes to “irrational exuberance,” the rise in their value has created an environment of greed where market participants are investing in tokens and hoping for Bitcoin-like returns. The latest digital currency success story has beenDogecoin, whichbeganas a joke.\nDogecoin Daily\nAfter trading at a fraction of a cent in late 2020, the price, at the end of last week, was over the 54 cent level. The digital token's market cap was over $70 billion, making Dogecoin the fourth leading crypto, which is far from a joke.\nEach day, the cryptocurrency asset class is reaching new levels of acceptance. Regulators in the US and Europe will need to decide if the asset class is a commodity, a currency, or something else. Meanwhile, time will tell if the price appreciation is a bubble or a new frontier that will change the way money flows worldwide.\nAre cryptos currencies, commodities, or something else?\nIn 2017, when the CFTC decided to allow the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and other exchanges to listBitcoin futures, it took the position that the cryptocurrencies were commodities. It is challenging to pigeonhole the burgeoning asset class as they have idiosyncratic characteristics similar to commodities, given their penchant for price volatility.\nThey are also exchange instruments with many commonalities with foreign exchange instruments. Cryptos are unique, which makes them hard to fathom for market traditionalists.\nAt the same time, there is broad agreement that blockchain technology, the child of Bitcoin, revolutionizes payments and record keeping. The tokens that gave birth to Fintech is another story.\nIn 2017, JP Morgan Chase’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, said that Bitcoin and digital currencies were a “fraud.” At the time, he said that anyone at his bank caught trading Bitcoin or the other novel instruments would be fired on the spot.\nWarren Buffet, the much-followed value investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa), called Bitcoin financial “rat poison squared.”\nFour years later, Jamie Dimon is singing a different tune as JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is opening a fund for its high net worth customers to invest in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, Mr. Buffet appears to be sticking to his guns. This month, his partner, Charlie Munger, doubled down by saying that digital currencies are “disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization.”\nThere are now futures contracts on BitcoinandEthereumtrading on CME. On May 3, the CME rolled out amicro Bitcoin contractwith lower initial margin requirements to increase the addressable market for trading.\nCoinbase’s (NASDAQ:COIN) listing on NASDAQ made the platform for over-the-counter digital currency trading, investing, and services, a publicly traded exchange worth nearly $48 billion at $258.37 per share at the end of last week. Meanwhile, the CME and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), two leading traditional exchange platforms, had market caps of $77.92 billion and $63.74 billion, respectively. It took the CME and ICE around two decades to reach these market caps; COIN did it in one month.\nOn Apr. 14, COIN’s market cap reached an incredible $100 billion on the first day of trading.\nRegulators need to answer one key question\nNo one is arguing that cryptocurrencies are not a unique asset class. The demand for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the other over 9,820 coins and growing is rising. The market cap was over the $2.29 trillion level last week as it recently rose above the world’s leading company, Apple.\nRegulators need to define this asset class before they can regulate it effectively. One of the global regulatory environment's critical issues is that the philosophy that underlies cryptocurrencies is a libertarian rejection of government involvement in money.\nThis ideology could be a challenging hump to overcome. Once past that issue, custody and security are issues.\nOn the face of it, the recent hack of the Colonial pipeline that brings gasoline to the US East Coast may have nothing to do with cryptocurrencies. Still, it raises the issue of computer hackers’ ability to crack into energy flows critical to a country’s national security.\nCustody and security for computer wallets holding trillions in value is a substantial, and in some ways similar issue facing regulators, who see their job as “protecting the public.” Moreover, it may not be in a government’s best interest to give up control of the money supply as the use of cryptos in the global financial system grows.\nAfter all, controlling short-term interest rates, influencing rates further out along the yield curve, and the ability to expand or contract the amount of currency in the financial system are critical monetary and fiscal policy tools. Indeed, regulators have their hands full defining the cryptocurrency asset class as it does not fit easily into any existing regulatory verticals.\nBlockchain is changing past business notions\nBlockchain is a complex core component of the digital currency asset class. However, it is a basic and straightforward notion that also drives Fintech. A blockchain is a list of transactions that anyone can view and verify. It is transactional history.\nThe Bitcoin blockchain contains a record of every time a party sent or received Bitcoin. Almost all cryptocurrencies are secured via blockchain networks, but blockchain has applications far beyond the cryptos.\nPayments via blockchain are more secure than standard debit or credit card transactions. Moreover, accuracy is constantly verified by a massive level of computing power, increasing the speed and efficiency of the payment system.\nThe blockchain also eliminates the need for third-party processors. Sensitive information is omitted, providing a level of identity protection. While no system is foolproof, blockchain technology is the core concept of Fintech and improves the antiquated way of doing business.\nUS SEC likely to take a leadership role, but that might not be sufficient\nGary Gensler is now the Biden Administration's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman, and he is no stranger to Fintech. Under his stewardship at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) during the Obama administration, Gensler vetted Bitcoin futures that appeared on the CME in late 2017. During his hiatus from the regulatory community, he was professor Gensler at MIT, teaching a Fintech course.\nAt the SEC, he is not in the hot seat for creating a regulatory protocol for cryptocurrencies. As the interest in the sector expands, more companies now accept cryptos as payments. And Coinbase is now a publicly traded exchange.\nThe SEC is currently vetting applications for cryptocurrency ETF and ETN products. Once approved, they would likely exponentially increase the addressable market for trading and investing.\nThe Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell's answer to a question about a digitaldollarwill probably also define the SEC’s approach under Chairman Gensler. In late April, Powell said it is important not to rush but rather to get it “right.”\nThe process for ETFs and ETNs is likely to move at a snail’s pace at the SEC as they attempt to define precisely in what financial vertical cryptos belong. They have characteristics of commodities and currencies but are different as well. We could see the SEC pass the ball with a recommendation to create a Fintech regulator independent from the CFTC and SEC.\nWhile the US is a leader in the global economy, cryptocurrencies transcend borders. Any regulatory effort would be incomplete if it did not have cross-border coordination and cooperation. Though the US, EU, UK, and Japan would likely cooperate on the regulation of digital currencies, China, Russia, and other countries could pose more than a challenge.\nA global regulatory approach would be like herding cats with conflicting interests from vastly different political and economic systems. The potential for global harmony is a pipedream.\nThe wild ride is likely to continue; Governments and regulators hold the key to cooling the volatility\nIf Charlie Munger has his way, governments will outlaw the cryptocurrency asset class. While US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde consistently cite the nefarious aspects of the asset class, their true motivation is likely to retain power through control of the money supply.\nGovernment officials favor the status quo, declining to shift towards a global currency market that transcends their influence and strips power from policymakers. Nonetheless, China is proceeding in rolling out adigital yuan. The US and EU are likely to follow, albeit slowly.\nMeanwhile, governments and regulators hold the key to cooling volatility. The highest the digital currency market cap grows, the greater the pressure to regulate will become.\nHowever, any event that undermines the asset class over the coming weeks or months would give regulators more time. In 2014, the Mount Gox hack slowed down Bitcoin's growth for a few years. Last week’s Colonial pipeline hack in the US is a warning to those holding substantial wealth in computer wallets that they are not secure.\nI see three significant aspects to the Fintech revolution and the rise of cryptocurrencies:\n\nBlockchain is already widely accepted as financial evolution rather than a revolution.\nThe growing number of companies and services accepting the tokens only adds to the market’s growth and supports the use of cryptos as a means of exchange.\nPerhaps most significantly, given the parabolic price moves, there's the speculative element.\n\nHuman nature drives us to markets that offer fantastic returns and “easy money” whether that seems believable or not. Over my lifetime, few markets have moved to levels where a one-dollar investment could be worth over $1 million in the space of eleven years.\nThe potential of those types of returns and a market with over 9,800 tokens will continue to fuel a speculative frenzy until the asset class is defined, regulated, and controlled—if that is possible. While cryptocurrencies face more than a few issues, the ideology and philosophy that rejects government control could be a wall too high to scale.\nAre cryptocurrencies a bubble or a new currency frontier? They may be a bit of both wrapped in an enigma that questions economic and political conventions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MBTmain":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":824,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/195366524"}