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2021-05-19

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3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today<blockquote>今天美联储会议纪要中值得关注的 3 件事</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":197163428,"tweetId":"197163428","gmtCreate":1621433985264,"gmtModify":1634189178462,"author":{"id":3566558181992521,"idStr":"3566558181992521","authorId":3566558181992521,"authorIdStr":"3566558181992521","name":"Tlger Buddy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a7042135fd39c322422c2527f88db09","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":51,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like n comment pls</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like n comment pls</body></html>","text":"Like n comment pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197163428","repostId":1103552481,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103552481","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621428667,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1103552481?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-19 20:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today<blockquote>今天美联储会议纪要中值得关注的 3 件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103552481","media":"Barrons","summary":"The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but inv","content":"The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but investors should still keep an eye out for a few different themes.<blockquote>美联储最新的会议纪要预计今天不会引起太大轰动，但投资者仍应关注一些不同的主题。</blockquote> The minutes are due out at 2 p.m. today, and Fed watchers may face a greater challenge than usual in deciphering their significance:&nbsp; A lot has changed in the economy since the April 28-29 meeting. The ensuing weeks have brought a&nbsp;surprisingly weak jobs report&nbsp;and a&nbsp;stronger-than-expected consumer inflation report, for example.<blockquote>会议纪要将于今天下午 2 点公布，美联储观察人士在解读会议纪要的意义时可能会面临比平时更大的挑战：自 4 月 28 日至 29 日会议以来，经济发生了很大变化。例如，接下来的几周带来了令人惊讶的疲软就业报告和强于预期的消费者通胀报告。</blockquote> And unlike&nbsp;last month’s meeting, there wasn’t an attention-grabbing selloff in Treasuries to command officials’ attention. The steep climb in yields abated at the end of March, even as economic data showed and stronger price pressures in April.&nbsp;The 10-year yield has&nbsp;dropped to 1.64%&nbsp;from 1.74% on March 31.<blockquote>与上个月的会议不同的是，没有出现引人注目的国债抛售来引起官员们的注意。尽管经济数据显示4月份价格压力更大，但收益率的急剧攀升在3月底有所减弱。10年期国债收益率已从3月31日的1.74%降至1.64%。</blockquote> Yet the document may still provide some clues about the central bank’s views. And officials have provided more perspective on policy since the latest meeting as well. Notably, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida spoke at a conference on Monday and discussed some recent economic data points as well.<blockquote>然而，这份文件可能仍能提供一些关于央行观点的线索。自上次会议以来，官员们也提供了更多关于政策的观点。值得注意的是，美联储副主席理查德·克拉里达在周一的一次会议上发表讲话，并讨论了最近的一些经济数据点。</blockquote> Here’s what strategists expect out of the meeting today, and what Clarida said about the topics:<blockquote>以下是战略家们对今天会议的期待，以及克拉里达对这些议题的看法：</blockquote> “Attuned and Attentive” to “Transitory” Inflation?<blockquote>“调整并关注” “暂时性 ”通货膨胀？</blockquote> One popular line among Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has been the assurance that this spring is expected to bring a “transitory” rise in inflation, mostly related to the reopening of the U.S. economy after the pandemic brought a sharp deceleration in activity last year.<blockquote>包括美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在内的美联储官员中流行的一句话是，预计今年春季通胀将出现 “暂时性 ”上升，这主要与美国经济在去年大流行病导致经济活动急剧放缓后重新开放有关。</blockquote> Mizuho economists Steven Ricchiuto and Alex Pelle wrote in a May 18 note that they expect “several mentions of ‘transitory’ price pressures” in the minutes. They also highlighted that many of the steepest increases in consumer prices in April were in sectors where demand had been hit most by the pandemic, such as hotels and airfares. “So far [that] validates the Fed’s thinking,” they added.<blockquote>瑞穗经济学家史蒂文-里奇乌托（Steven Ricchiuto）和亚历克斯-佩勒（Alex Pelle）在 5 月 18 日的一份报告中写道，他们预计会议纪要中 “会多次提到'暂时'的价格压力”。他们还强调，4月份消费者价格涨幅最大的许多行业都是需求受疫情打击最大的行业，如酒店和机票。“他们补充说：”到目前为止，[这]证实了美联储的想法。</blockquote> Yet at Monday’s conference, Clarida seemed to be repeating a different type of assurance about inflation:&nbsp; That the central bank would be “attuned and attentive” to any data showing higher price pressures.<blockquote>然而，在周一的会议上，克拉里达似乎在重复一种不同类型的通胀保证：央行将 “调整并关注 ”任何显示物价压力上升的数据。</blockquote> “In the CPI report, [reopening] did clearly put upward pressure on prices. Now our baseline view is that most of this is likely to be transitory, but we have to be attuned and attentive to the incoming data,” he said. “[The] key element of our mandate is price stability and an important component of price stability is well-anchored inflation expectations. If we were to see upward pressure on prices or inflation that threatened to put inflation expectations higher, I have no doubt we would use our tools to address that situation.”<blockquote>“在 CPI 报告中，[重新开放]显然给物价带来了上行压力。现在我们的基线观点是，这大部分可能是暂时的，但我们必须调整并关注即将到来的数据，”他说。“我们任务的关键要素是价格稳定，而价格稳定的一个重要组成部分是稳固的通胀预期。如果我们看到价格或通胀面临上行压力，有可能推高通胀预期，我毫不怀疑我们会利用我们的工具来应对这种情况。”</blockquote> Taper Timeline<blockquote>锥度时间轴</blockquote> Investors will also be looking to see if the central bank provides any additional guidance on when it might start paring back its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases. Powell has said the Fed wants to make “substantial further progress” toward its goals of full employment and a long-term average of 2% inflation before it wants to pare down its purchases, but officials haven’t provided much additional guidance.<blockquote>投资者还将关注央行是否会就何时开始削减每月 1200 亿美元的债券购买规模提供任何额外指导。鲍威尔曾表示，美联储希望在缩减购债规模之前，在实现充分就业和长期平均通胀率2%的目标方面取得 “实质性进一步进展”，但官员们并未提供太多额外指导。</blockquote> Most on Wall Street expect the Fed to discuss longer-term plans to reduce, or taper, its purchases&nbsp;late this summer or during the fall. NatWest Markets said in a Monday note that it expects the Fed to start talking about tapering its purchases in September and actually start to reduce the pace of bond-buying next year.<blockquote>华尔街大多数人预计美联储将在今年夏末或秋季讨论减少或缩减购买量的长期计划。NatWest Markets 在周一的一份报告中表示，预计美联储将在 9 月份开始讨论缩减购买规模，并实际上从明年开始放缓债券购买步伐。</blockquote> So any more detailed discussion in the latest meeting minutes could come as a surprise to investors and potentially matter for markets.<blockquote>因此，最新会议纪要中任何更详细的讨论都可能让投资者感到意外，并可能对市场产生影响。</blockquote> Labor-Market Outlook<blockquote>劳动力市场前景</blockquote> One key factor that will determine the outlook for the Fed’s bond buying (and other accommodation) is the recovery in the labor market. And that remains up in the air, after the disappointing April jobs report.<blockquote>决定美联储购买债券（和其他便利措施）前景的一个关键因素是劳动力市场的复苏。在令人失望的四月份就业报告之后，这仍然悬而未决。</blockquote> Still, there is a chance investors could find more context on one of their questions in the minutes:&nbsp; How much improvement will be enough for the Fed to start withdrawing accommodation? In other words, what does “substantial further progress” mean?<blockquote>尽管如此，投资者还是有机会在会议纪要中找到他们的一个问题的更多背景：多少改善足以让美联储开始撤回宽松政策？换句话说，“实质性的进一步进展”是什么意思？</blockquote> Before the disappointing news on April’s labor market, most of Wall Street expected a strong month for jobs creation, another step toward the “string” of strong months of recovery that Powell had said was needed before the U.S. achieved “substantial further progress” toward the Fed’s goals. That may have prompted officials to discuss just how far along the recovery would need to go before the central bank could start stepping back.<blockquote>在 4 月份劳动力市场传来令人失望的消息之前，华尔街大多数人都预计本月就业岗位创造将强劲增长，这是鲍威尔所说的在美国实现美联储目标 “进一步实质性进展 ”之前，需要实现 “一连串 ”强劲复苏的又一步。这可能促使官员们讨论在央行开始退缩之前，复苏需要走多远。</blockquote> Clarida discussed the April employment report on Monday as well.<blockquote>克拉里达周一还讨论了4月份的就业报告。</blockquote> “What the April employment report said to me is that the way we bring supply and demand into balance in the labor market, especially in the service sector, may take some time and may produce some upward pressure on prices as workers return to employment, so we have to be attuned and attentive to that data flow,” he said. “Per that April employment report, we have not made substantial further progress, but as the data comes in we as a committee will have to evaluate that, and ultimately make a judgment.”<blockquote>“他说：”四月份的就业报告告诉我，我们在劳动力市场，尤其是服务业实现供需平衡的方式可能需要一些时间，而且随着工人重返工作岗位，价格可能会受到一些上行压力，因此我们必须调整并关注这一数据流。“根据 4 月份的就业报告，我们还没有取得实质性的进一步进展，但随着数据的公布，我们作为一个委员会将不得不对此进行评估，并最终做出判断”。</blockquote> Ultimately, the importance of future labor-market data hints at the broader takeaway from the Fed’s meeting minutes:&nbsp; Coming months’ economic data may be the final arbiter of what the Fed does, and its plans to remove accommodation from markets and the economy. And the&nbsp;economic data has been so volatile&nbsp;during the reopening that the picture could change significantly by the time the Fed meets again in June.<blockquote>归根结底，未来劳动力市场数据的重要性暗示着美联储会议纪要的更广泛启示： 未来几个月的经济数据可能是美联储行动及其消除市场和经济宽松计划的最终仲裁者。重新开放期间的经济数据非常不稳定，到美联储 6 月份再次开会时，情况可能会发生重大变化。</blockquote> That means investors will have to hold tight for a while longer to get a sense of when the central bank plans to start stepping back.<blockquote>这意味着投资者将不得不观望一段时间，以了解央行计划何时开始退缩。</blockquote> “We’re reluctant to call this an equilibrium of any sort – rather it’s much more likely to prove a temporary holding pattern as macro expectations are further refined,” wrote Ian Lyngen, strategist with BMO. “Clearly, we have more questions than answers.”<blockquote>“蒙特利尔银行策略师伊恩-林根（Ian Lyngen）写道：”我们不愿将此看涨期权为任何形式的均衡--相反，随着宏观预期的进一步细化，这更有可能证明是一种暂时的持有模式。“显然，我们的问题多于答案”。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today<blockquote>今天美联储会议纪要中值得关注的 3 件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Things to Watch for in the Fed Minutes Today<blockquote>今天美联储会议纪要中值得关注的 3 件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-05-19 20:51\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but investors should still keep an eye out for a few different themes.<blockquote>美联储最新的会议纪要预计今天不会引起太大轰动，但投资者仍应关注一些不同的主题。</blockquote> The minutes are due out at 2 p.m. today, and Fed watchers may face a greater challenge than usual in deciphering their significance:&nbsp; A lot has changed in the economy since the April 28-29 meeting. The ensuing weeks have brought a&nbsp;surprisingly weak jobs report&nbsp;and a&nbsp;stronger-than-expected consumer inflation report, for example.<blockquote>会议纪要将于今天下午 2 点公布，美联储观察人士在解读会议纪要的意义时可能会面临比平时更大的挑战：自 4 月 28 日至 29 日会议以来，经济发生了很大变化。例如，接下来的几周带来了令人惊讶的疲软就业报告和强于预期的消费者通胀报告。</blockquote> And unlike&nbsp;last month’s meeting, there wasn’t an attention-grabbing selloff in Treasuries to command officials’ attention. The steep climb in yields abated at the end of March, even as economic data showed and stronger price pressures in April.&nbsp;The 10-year yield has&nbsp;dropped to 1.64%&nbsp;from 1.74% on March 31.<blockquote>与上个月的会议不同的是，没有出现引人注目的国债抛售来引起官员们的注意。尽管经济数据显示4月份价格压力更大，但收益率的急剧攀升在3月底有所减弱。10年期国债收益率已从3月31日的1.74%降至1.64%。</blockquote> Yet the document may still provide some clues about the central bank’s views. And officials have provided more perspective on policy since the latest meeting as well. Notably, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida spoke at a conference on Monday and discussed some recent economic data points as well.<blockquote>然而，这份文件可能仍能提供一些关于央行观点的线索。自上次会议以来，官员们也提供了更多关于政策的观点。值得注意的是，美联储副主席理查德·克拉里达在周一的一次会议上发表讲话，并讨论了最近的一些经济数据点。</blockquote> Here’s what strategists expect out of the meeting today, and what Clarida said about the topics:<blockquote>以下是战略家们对今天会议的期待，以及克拉里达对这些议题的看法：</blockquote> “Attuned and Attentive” to “Transitory” Inflation?<blockquote>“调整并关注” “暂时性 ”通货膨胀？</blockquote> One popular line among Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has been the assurance that this spring is expected to bring a “transitory” rise in inflation, mostly related to the reopening of the U.S. economy after the pandemic brought a sharp deceleration in activity last year.<blockquote>包括美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在内的美联储官员中流行的一句话是，预计今年春季通胀将出现 “暂时性 ”上升，这主要与美国经济在去年大流行病导致经济活动急剧放缓后重新开放有关。</blockquote> Mizuho economists Steven Ricchiuto and Alex Pelle wrote in a May 18 note that they expect “several mentions of ‘transitory’ price pressures” in the minutes. They also highlighted that many of the steepest increases in consumer prices in April were in sectors where demand had been hit most by the pandemic, such as hotels and airfares. “So far [that] validates the Fed’s thinking,” they added.<blockquote>瑞穗经济学家史蒂文-里奇乌托（Steven Ricchiuto）和亚历克斯-佩勒（Alex Pelle）在 5 月 18 日的一份报告中写道，他们预计会议纪要中 “会多次提到'暂时'的价格压力”。他们还强调，4月份消费者价格涨幅最大的许多行业都是需求受疫情打击最大的行业，如酒店和机票。“他们补充说：”到目前为止，[这]证实了美联储的想法。</blockquote> Yet at Monday’s conference, Clarida seemed to be repeating a different type of assurance about inflation:&nbsp; That the central bank would be “attuned and attentive” to any data showing higher price pressures.<blockquote>然而，在周一的会议上，克拉里达似乎在重复一种不同类型的通胀保证：央行将 “调整并关注 ”任何显示物价压力上升的数据。</blockquote> “In the CPI report, [reopening] did clearly put upward pressure on prices. Now our baseline view is that most of this is likely to be transitory, but we have to be attuned and attentive to the incoming data,” he said. “[The] key element of our mandate is price stability and an important component of price stability is well-anchored inflation expectations. If we were to see upward pressure on prices or inflation that threatened to put inflation expectations higher, I have no doubt we would use our tools to address that situation.”<blockquote>“在 CPI 报告中，[重新开放]显然给物价带来了上行压力。现在我们的基线观点是，这大部分可能是暂时的，但我们必须调整并关注即将到来的数据，”他说。“我们任务的关键要素是价格稳定，而价格稳定的一个重要组成部分是稳固的通胀预期。如果我们看到价格或通胀面临上行压力，有可能推高通胀预期，我毫不怀疑我们会利用我们的工具来应对这种情况。”</blockquote> Taper Timeline<blockquote>锥度时间轴</blockquote> Investors will also be looking to see if the central bank provides any additional guidance on when it might start paring back its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases. Powell has said the Fed wants to make “substantial further progress” toward its goals of full employment and a long-term average of 2% inflation before it wants to pare down its purchases, but officials haven’t provided much additional guidance.<blockquote>投资者还将关注央行是否会就何时开始削减每月 1200 亿美元的债券购买规模提供任何额外指导。鲍威尔曾表示，美联储希望在缩减购债规模之前，在实现充分就业和长期平均通胀率2%的目标方面取得 “实质性进一步进展”，但官员们并未提供太多额外指导。</blockquote> Most on Wall Street expect the Fed to discuss longer-term plans to reduce, or taper, its purchases&nbsp;late this summer or during the fall. NatWest Markets said in a Monday note that it expects the Fed to start talking about tapering its purchases in September and actually start to reduce the pace of bond-buying next year.<blockquote>华尔街大多数人预计美联储将在今年夏末或秋季讨论减少或缩减购买量的长期计划。NatWest Markets 在周一的一份报告中表示，预计美联储将在 9 月份开始讨论缩减购买规模，并实际上从明年开始放缓债券购买步伐。</blockquote> So any more detailed discussion in the latest meeting minutes could come as a surprise to investors and potentially matter for markets.<blockquote>因此，最新会议纪要中任何更详细的讨论都可能让投资者感到意外，并可能对市场产生影响。</blockquote> Labor-Market Outlook<blockquote>劳动力市场前景</blockquote> One key factor that will determine the outlook for the Fed’s bond buying (and other accommodation) is the recovery in the labor market. And that remains up in the air, after the disappointing April jobs report.<blockquote>决定美联储购买债券（和其他便利措施）前景的一个关键因素是劳动力市场的复苏。在令人失望的四月份就业报告之后，这仍然悬而未决。</blockquote> Still, there is a chance investors could find more context on one of their questions in the minutes:&nbsp; How much improvement will be enough for the Fed to start withdrawing accommodation? In other words, what does “substantial further progress” mean?<blockquote>尽管如此，投资者还是有机会在会议纪要中找到他们的一个问题的更多背景：多少改善足以让美联储开始撤回宽松政策？换句话说，“实质性的进一步进展”是什么意思？</blockquote> Before the disappointing news on April’s labor market, most of Wall Street expected a strong month for jobs creation, another step toward the “string” of strong months of recovery that Powell had said was needed before the U.S. achieved “substantial further progress” toward the Fed’s goals. That may have prompted officials to discuss just how far along the recovery would need to go before the central bank could start stepping back.<blockquote>在 4 月份劳动力市场传来令人失望的消息之前，华尔街大多数人都预计本月就业岗位创造将强劲增长，这是鲍威尔所说的在美国实现美联储目标 “进一步实质性进展 ”之前，需要实现 “一连串 ”强劲复苏的又一步。这可能促使官员们讨论在央行开始退缩之前，复苏需要走多远。</blockquote> Clarida discussed the April employment report on Monday as well.<blockquote>克拉里达周一还讨论了4月份的就业报告。</blockquote> “What the April employment report said to me is that the way we bring supply and demand into balance in the labor market, especially in the service sector, may take some time and may produce some upward pressure on prices as workers return to employment, so we have to be attuned and attentive to that data flow,” he said. “Per that April employment report, we have not made substantial further progress, but as the data comes in we as a committee will have to evaluate that, and ultimately make a judgment.”<blockquote>“他说：”四月份的就业报告告诉我，我们在劳动力市场，尤其是服务业实现供需平衡的方式可能需要一些时间，而且随着工人重返工作岗位，价格可能会受到一些上行压力，因此我们必须调整并关注这一数据流。“根据 4 月份的就业报告，我们还没有取得实质性的进一步进展，但随着数据的公布，我们作为一个委员会将不得不对此进行评估，并最终做出判断”。</blockquote> Ultimately, the importance of future labor-market data hints at the broader takeaway from the Fed’s meeting minutes:&nbsp; Coming months’ economic data may be the final arbiter of what the Fed does, and its plans to remove accommodation from markets and the economy. And the&nbsp;economic data has been so volatile&nbsp;during the reopening that the picture could change significantly by the time the Fed meets again in June.<blockquote>归根结底，未来劳动力市场数据的重要性暗示着美联储会议纪要的更广泛启示： 未来几个月的经济数据可能是美联储行动及其消除市场和经济宽松计划的最终仲裁者。重新开放期间的经济数据非常不稳定，到美联储 6 月份再次开会时，情况可能会发生重大变化。</blockquote> That means investors will have to hold tight for a while longer to get a sense of when the central bank plans to start stepping back.<blockquote>这意味着投资者将不得不观望一段时间，以了解央行计划何时开始退缩。</blockquote> “We’re reluctant to call this an equilibrium of any sort – rather it’s much more likely to prove a temporary holding pattern as macro expectations are further refined,” wrote Ian Lyngen, strategist with BMO. “Clearly, we have more questions than answers.”<blockquote>“蒙特利尔银行策略师伊恩-林根（Ian Lyngen）写道：”我们不愿将此看涨期权为任何形式的均衡--相反，随着宏观预期的进一步细化，这更有可能证明是一种暂时的持有模式。“显然，我们的问题多于答案”。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-jobs-and-more-to-watch-for-in-todays-fed-minutes-release-51621421812?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-jobs-and-more-to-watch-for-in-todays-fed-minutes-release-51621421812?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103552481","content_text":"The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes aren’t expected to make much of a splash today, but investors should still keep an eye out for a few different themes.\nThe minutes are due out at 2 p.m. today, and Fed watchers may face a greater challenge than usual in deciphering their significance:  A lot has changed in the economy since the April 28-29 meeting. The ensuing weeks have brought a surprisingly weak jobs report and a stronger-than-expected consumer inflation report, for example.\nAnd unlike last month’s meeting, there wasn’t an attention-grabbing selloff in Treasuries to command officials’ attention. The steep climb in yields abated at the end of March, even as economic data showed and stronger price pressures in April. The 10-year yield has dropped to 1.64% from 1.74% on March 31.\nYet the document may still provide some clues about the central bank’s views. And officials have provided more perspective on policy since the latest meeting as well. Notably, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida spoke at a conference on Monday and discussed some recent economic data points as well.\nHere’s what strategists expect out of the meeting today, and what Clarida said about the topics:\n“Attuned and Attentive” to “Transitory” Inflation?\nOne popular line among Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has been the assurance that this spring is expected to bring a “transitory” rise in inflation, mostly related to the reopening of the U.S. economy after the pandemic brought a sharp deceleration in activity last year.\nMizuho economists Steven Ricchiuto and Alex Pelle wrote in a May 18 note that they expect “several mentions of ‘transitory’ price pressures” in the minutes. They also highlighted that many of the steepest increases in consumer prices in April were in sectors where demand had been hit most by the pandemic, such as hotels and airfares. “So far [that] validates the Fed’s thinking,” they added.\nYet at Monday’s conference, Clarida seemed to be repeating a different type of assurance about inflation:  That the central bank would be “attuned and attentive” to any data showing higher price pressures.\n“In the CPI report, [reopening] did clearly put upward pressure on prices. Now our baseline view is that most of this is likely to be transitory, but we have to be attuned and attentive to the incoming data,” he said. “[The] key element of our mandate is price stability and an important component of price stability is well-anchored inflation expectations. If we were to see upward pressure on prices or inflation that threatened to put inflation expectations higher, I have no doubt we would use our tools to address that situation.”\nTaper Timeline\nInvestors will also be looking to see if the central bank provides any additional guidance on when it might start paring back its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases. Powell has said the Fed wants to make “substantial further progress” toward its goals of full employment and a long-term average of 2% inflation before it wants to pare down its purchases, but officials haven’t provided much additional guidance.\nMost on Wall Street expect the Fed to discuss longer-term plans to reduce, or taper, its purchases late this summer or during the fall. NatWest Markets said in a Monday note that it expects the Fed to start talking about tapering its purchases in September and actually start to reduce the pace of bond-buying next year.\nSo any more detailed discussion in the latest meeting minutes could come as a surprise to investors and potentially matter for markets.\nLabor-Market Outlook\nOne key factor that will determine the outlook for the Fed’s bond buying (and other accommodation) is the recovery in the labor market. And that remains up in the air, after the disappointing April jobs report.\nStill, there is a chance investors could find more context on one of their questions in the minutes:  How much improvement will be enough for the Fed to start withdrawing accommodation? In other words, what does “substantial further progress” mean?\nBefore the disappointing news on April’s labor market, most of Wall Street expected a strong month for jobs creation, another step toward the “string” of strong months of recovery that Powell had said was needed before the U.S. achieved “substantial further progress” toward the Fed’s goals. That may have prompted officials to discuss just how far along the recovery would need to go before the central bank could start stepping back.\nClarida discussed the April employment report on Monday as well.\n“What the April employment report said to me is that the way we bring supply and demand into balance in the labor market, especially in the service sector, may take some time and may produce some upward pressure on prices as workers return to employment, so we have to be attuned and attentive to that data flow,” he said. “Per that April employment report, we have not made substantial further progress, but as the data comes in we as a committee will have to evaluate that, and ultimately make a judgment.”\nUltimately, the importance of future labor-market data hints at the broader takeaway from the Fed’s meeting minutes:  Coming months’ economic data may be the final arbiter of what the Fed does, and its plans to remove accommodation from markets and the economy. And the economic data has been so volatile during the reopening that the picture could change significantly by the time the Fed meets again in June.\nThat means investors will have to hold tight for a while longer to get a sense of when the central bank plans to start stepping back.\n“We’re reluctant to call this an equilibrium of any sort – rather it’s much more likely to prove a temporary holding pattern as macro expectations are further refined,” wrote Ian Lyngen, strategist with BMO. “Clearly, we have more questions than answers.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/197163428"}