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2021-05-14

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"No Panic": Markets Surge As "Transitory Inflation" Narrative Reasserts Itself<blockquote>“不要恐慌”：随着“暂时性通胀”的说法再次出现，市场飙升</blockquote>

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The Fed is focused on the labor market, believing that any transitory inflation can be weathered by Consumers.\" Some more from JPM:<blockquote>...隔夜写道，尽管CPI和现在的PPI都非常火爆，但“从美联储的角度来看，一切都没有改变。美联储专注于劳动力市场，相信消费者可以抵御任何暂时的通胀。”摩根大通的更多信息：</blockquote> What is the Fed looking at (BLS)?US Market Intelligence thinks it is a combination of the unemployed (9.8mm; 6.1%), long-term unemployed (4.2mm, +3.1mm from Feb 2020), labor force participation rate (61.7%; -1.6% from Feb 2020), employment-population ratio (57.9%; -3.2% from Feb 2020), number of people not in labor force who want a job (6.6mm; +1.6mm from Feb 2020), and a new category “unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic” (9.4mm, down 2mm MoM, but this did not exist prior to Feb 2020; and, not all of these people are counted in unemployment measure). Finally, you have people “prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic” numbering 2.8mm which is -900k MoM; none of these people are counted in the unemployment measure. Combine these numbers and you see a US labor market that is more fragile than headline numbers suggest. This may be why we continue to see Fed speakers reiterate a data-driven approach.Conversely, this may also be why markets are now seemingly more sensitive to inflation. Commodity-based and COVIDinduced supply chain inflation may overlap with wage inflation, creating a situation where the Fed may have to act more strongly than what investors have witnessed previously. For those asking \"how to monetize this line of thinking\" JPM recommends commodities and commodity-linked Equities, specifically Energy: \"consider both integrates like XOM and CVX, or XLE for general exposure. Further, refiners are a strong long play through 2021Q3, potentially longer, and would view VLO and MPC as the favored ways to play. In addition to that, inflation expectations are likely to pull yields higher, which benefit Banks.\"<blockquote>美联储在看什么（BLS）？美国市场情报认为这是失业者（9.8毫米；6.1%），长期失业者（4.2毫米，比2020年2月+3.1毫米），劳动力参与率（61.7%；-1.6%比2020年2月），就业-人口比率（57.9%；-3.2%比2020年2月），不在劳动力中想要工作的人数（6.6毫米；从2020年2月起+1.6毫米），以及一个新的类别“因为雇主因疫情关闭或失去业务而无法工作”（9.4毫米，环比下降2mm，但这在2020年2月之前并不存在；而且，并非所有这些人都被计算在失业指标中）。最后，你有“由于疫情而无法找工作”的人，人数为2.8毫米，也就是90万妈妈；这些人都没有被计算在失业指标中。综合这些数字，你会发现美国劳动力市场比总体数字显示的更加脆弱。这可能就是为什么我们继续看到美联储发言人重申数据驱动的方法。反过来，这也可能是市场现在似乎对通胀更加敏感的原因。基于大宗商品和新冠疫情引发的供应链通胀可能会与工资通胀重叠，从而造成美联储可能不得不采取比投资者之前目睹的更强有力的行动的情况。对于那些询问“如何将这种思路货币化”的人，摩根大通推荐大宗商品和与大宗商品相关的股票，特别是能源：“考虑XOM和CVX等综合股票，或XLE的一般敞口。此外，炼油厂在2021年第三季度是一个强劲的多头投资，可能会更长，并将VLO和MPC视为受欢迎的投资方式。除此之外，通胀预期可能会推高收益率，这对银行有利。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"No Panic\": Markets Surge As \"Transitory Inflation\" Narrative Reasserts Itself<blockquote>“不要恐慌”：随着“暂时性通胀”的说法再次出现，市场飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"No Panic\": Markets Surge As \"Transitory Inflation\" Narrative Reasserts Itself<blockquote>“不要恐慌”：随着“暂时性通胀”的说法再次出现，市场飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-05-13 22:52\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nIt seems that the \"non-transitory\" inflation panic that gripped markets yesterday, resulting in the biggest one-day drop in the S&amp;P since February, is gradually transitioning to \"transitory\" again, and even though today's y/y PPI print of 6.2%,the highest on record, reaffirmed the soaring prices narrative...<blockquote>昨天困扰市场的“非暂时性”通胀恐慌，导致S&amp;P自2月份以来最大单日跌幅，似乎正逐渐再次过渡到“暂时性”，尽管今天的PPI同比数据为6.2%，创历史新高，重申了价格飙升的说法...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17fb4e9fa1646eb72495711c65580bce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\"><blockquote></blockquote> ...today the \"transitory\" inflation mood is reasserting itself, with Emini futures surging almost 100 points from the overnight lows...<blockquote>...今天，“暂时性”通胀情绪再次显现，Emini期货从隔夜低点飙升近100点...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6070f28b3d5457de2824102b29241962\" tg-width=\"1205\" tg-height=\"644\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and the battered FAAMG sector is solidly in the green as closely watched 5Y breakevens slide and nominals are down to session lows:<blockquote>...随着备受关注的5年期盈亏平衡点下滑且名义价格跌至盘中低点，遭受重创的FAAMG行业稳步上涨：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a23d123d4d54bd6870a532a6dca4a802\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"509\"><blockquote></blockquote> Wall Street traders also find comfort in the latest hot take from Morgan Stanley's QDS desk which notes that the the trading desk noted\"there was no major panic outside the systematic community as the 'transitory inflation' narrative appeared to be adopted\"and furthermore, \"the desk continues to see demand in mega cap tech from the longer term community for the third day in a row.\"<blockquote>华尔街交易员也从摩根士丹利QDS部门的最新热门观点中找到了安慰，该部门指出“由于‘暂时性通胀’的说法似乎被采纳，系统性社区之外并没有出现重大恐慌”此外，“该部门连续第三天继续看到长期社区对大型技术的需求。”</blockquote> Optimism was also fanned by market commentary from JPMorgan which almost verbatim echoed what we said yesterday...<blockquote>摩根大通的市场评论也助长了乐观情绪，这些评论几乎一字不差地呼应了我们昨天所说的……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a886dc7309253045b85fb3bdd52ffabd\" tg-width=\"519\" tg-height=\"264\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and overnight wrote that despite the blistering hot CPI and now PPI, nothing has changed \"from the Fed’s view. The Fed is focused on the labor market, believing that any transitory inflation can be weathered by Consumers.\" Some more from JPM:<blockquote>...隔夜写道，尽管CPI和现在的PPI都非常火爆，但“从美联储的角度来看，一切都没有改变。美联储专注于劳动力市场，相信消费者可以抵御任何暂时的通胀。”摩根大通的更多信息：</blockquote> What is the Fed looking at (BLS)?US Market Intelligence thinks it is a combination of the unemployed (9.8mm; 6.1%), long-term unemployed (4.2mm, +3.1mm from Feb 2020), labor force participation rate (61.7%; -1.6% from Feb 2020), employment-population ratio (57.9%; -3.2% from Feb 2020), number of people not in labor force who want a job (6.6mm; +1.6mm from Feb 2020), and a new category “unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic” (9.4mm, down 2mm MoM, but this did not exist prior to Feb 2020; and, not all of these people are counted in unemployment measure). Finally, you have people “prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic” numbering 2.8mm which is -900k MoM; none of these people are counted in the unemployment measure. Combine these numbers and you see a US labor market that is more fragile than headline numbers suggest. This may be why we continue to see Fed speakers reiterate a data-driven approach.Conversely, this may also be why markets are now seemingly more sensitive to inflation. Commodity-based and COVIDinduced supply chain inflation may overlap with wage inflation, creating a situation where the Fed may have to act more strongly than what investors have witnessed previously. For those asking \"how to monetize this line of thinking\" JPM recommends commodities and commodity-linked Equities, specifically Energy: \"consider both integrates like XOM and CVX, or XLE for general exposure. Further, refiners are a strong long play through 2021Q3, potentially longer, and would view VLO and MPC as the favored ways to play. In addition to that, inflation expectations are likely to pull yields higher, which benefit Banks.\"<blockquote>美联储在看什么（BLS）？美国市场情报认为这是失业者（9.8毫米；6.1%），长期失业者（4.2毫米，比2020年2月+3.1毫米），劳动力参与率（61.7%；-1.6%比2020年2月），就业-人口比率（57.9%；-3.2%比2020年2月），不在劳动力中想要工作的人数（6.6毫米；从2020年2月起+1.6毫米），以及一个新的类别“因为雇主因疫情关闭或失去业务而无法工作”（9.4毫米，环比下降2mm，但这在2020年2月之前并不存在；而且，并非所有这些人都被计算在失业指标中）。最后，你有“由于疫情而无法找工作”的人，人数为2.8毫米，也就是90万妈妈；这些人都没有被计算在失业指标中。综合这些数字，你会发现美国劳动力市场比总体数字显示的更加脆弱。这可能就是为什么我们继续看到美联储发言人重申数据驱动的方法。反过来，这也可能是市场现在似乎对通胀更加敏感的原因。基于大宗商品和新冠疫情引发的供应链通胀可能会与工资通胀重叠，从而造成美联储可能不得不采取比投资者之前目睹的更强有力的行动的情况。对于那些询问“如何将这种思路货币化”的人，摩根大通推荐大宗商品和与大宗商品相关的股票，特别是能源：“考虑XOM和CVX等综合股票，或XLE的一般敞口。此外，炼油厂在2021年第三季度是一个强劲的多头投资，可能会更长，并将VLO和MPC视为受欢迎的投资方式。除此之外，通胀预期可能会推高收益率，这对银行有利。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-panic-markets-surge-transitory-inflation-narrative-reasserts-itself?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-panic-markets-surge-transitory-inflation-narrative-reasserts-itself?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164877086","content_text":"It seems that the \"non-transitory\" inflation panic that gripped markets yesterday, resulting in the biggest one-day drop in the S&P since February, is gradually transitioning to \"transitory\" again, and even though today's y/y PPI print of 6.2%,the highest on record, reaffirmed the soaring prices narrative...\n\n...today the \"transitory\" inflation mood is reasserting itself, with Emini futures surging almost 100 points from the overnight lows...\n\n... and the battered FAAMG sector is solidly in the green as closely watched 5Y breakevens slide and nominals are down to session lows:\n\nWall Street traders also find comfort in the latest hot take from Morgan Stanley's QDS desk which notes that the the trading desk noted\"there was no major panic outside the systematic community as the 'transitory inflation' narrative appeared to be adopted\"and furthermore, \"the desk continues to see demand in mega cap tech from the longer term community for the third day in a row.\"\nOptimism was also fanned by market commentary from JPMorgan which almost verbatim echoed what we said yesterday...\n\n... and overnight wrote that despite the blistering hot CPI and now PPI, nothing has changed \"from the Fed’s view. The Fed is focused on the labor market, believing that any transitory inflation can be weathered by Consumers.\" Some more from JPM:\n\nWhat is the Fed looking at (BLS)?US Market Intelligence thinks it is a combination of the unemployed (9.8mm; 6.1%), long-term unemployed (4.2mm, +3.1mm from Feb 2020), labor force participation rate (61.7%; -1.6% from Feb 2020), employment-population ratio (57.9%; -3.2% from Feb 2020), number of people not in labor force who want a job (6.6mm; +1.6mm from Feb 2020), and a new category “unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic” (9.4mm, down 2mm MoM, but this did not exist prior to Feb 2020; and, not all of these people are counted in unemployment measure). Finally, you have people “prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic” numbering 2.8mm which is -900k MoM; none of these people are counted in the unemployment measure.\n Combine these numbers and you see a US labor market that is more fragile than headline numbers suggest. This may be why we continue to see Fed speakers reiterate a data-driven approach.Conversely, this may also be why markets are now seemingly more sensitive to inflation. Commodity-based and COVIDinduced supply chain inflation may overlap with wage inflation, creating a situation where the Fed may have to act more strongly than what investors have witnessed previously.\n\nFor those asking \"how to monetize this line of thinking\" JPM recommends commodities and commodity-linked Equities, specifically Energy: \"consider both integrates like XOM and CVX, or XLE for general exposure. Further, refiners are a strong long play through 2021Q3, potentially longer, and would view VLO and MPC as the favored ways to play. In addition to that, inflation expectations are likely to pull yields higher, which benefit Banks.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":16,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/198115235"}