EquityQueen
2021-05-11
Wow
Investors are ignoring a ticking-time-bomb stock market, says this money manager<blockquote>这位基金经理表示，投资者正在忽视定时炸弹股市</blockquote>
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The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国交易日的关键信息。</b>随着通胀担忧继续波及整个市场，周二股市，尤其是科技领域的股市看起来充满风险。由于担心通胀上升可能会促使美联储提前结束因 COVID-19 大流行病而采取的宽松立场，该行业一直首当其冲。</blockquote></p><p>After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear Wednesday’s consumer price datacould also deliver a nasty shock. Not helping are fresh Chinese data on Tuesday showingsurgingfactory-gate prices, though the consumer side was subdued. That is as investors continue to monitor fallout from a downed U.S. energy pipeline.</p><p><blockquote>在上周的就业意外下滑之后，一些人担心周三的消费者价格数据也可能带来严重的冲击。周二公布的中国最新数据显示出厂价飙升，但消费者方面却受到抑制，这也无济于事。与此同时，投资者继续关注美国能源管道中断的影响。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is the “worst-case scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors, warns our<b>call of the day</b>from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.</p><p><blockquote>我们的分析师警告说，对于这个充满自满投资者的定时炸弹市场来说，通货膨胀是“最坏的情况”。<b>今日看涨期权</b>来自Thomas H.Kee Jr.，Stock Traders Daily总裁兼首席执行官，Equity Logic投资组合经理。</blockquote></p><p>“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation. If inflation comes back, all of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be able to come back to save the day,” Kee told MarketWatch on Monday in an interview via LinkedIn. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“可以说，刺激措施之所以成为可能，唯一的原因就是没有通货膨胀。如果通货膨胀卷土重来，投资者获得的所有保障措施（刺激措施带来的免费资金）都将消失，无法再挽救局面，”Kee 周一通过 LinkedIn 接受 MarketWatch 采访时表示。他说，最近的就业数据确实表明，物价上涨将 “比之前想象的更严重”。</blockquote></p><p>Investors are disregarding the fact that stocks are very expensive right now, said Kee, wholast Novemberpredicted a 25% drop for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.10%by year-end based on high price/earnings multiples.</p><p><blockquote>Kee 表示，投资者忽视了目前股票非常昂贵的事实，去年 11 月预测道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) 将下跌 25%，由于市盈率较高，到年底将下跌 -0.10%。</blockquote></p><p>Last year, he expected Dow earnings-per-share growth at 32% for 2021, but now sees it surging to 62%, before collapsing to 2.42% in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>去年，他预计道琼斯指数 2021 年每股收益将增长 32%，但现在预计将飙升至 62%，然后在 2022 年暴跌至 2.42%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/365ed838e230cb045d05fffe774347e1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The declines can be much worse than 25% and if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPXSPX,-1.04%is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x.”</p><p><blockquote>“Kee说：”降幅可能比25%严重得多，如果FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）因通货膨胀而被束缚，投资者习以为常的快速反弹也不会发生。“SPXSPX-1.04% 的公允价值倍数不是 30 倍，而是 35 倍。更像是 15 倍。”</blockquote></p><p>And the price/earnings to growth ratio, which adds in future earnings growth, for the Dow next year is “over 7, and normal fair value is 1.5. It is way overvalued based on that,” said Kee.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数明年的市盈率将 “超过 7，正常公允价值为 1.5。基于此，道琼斯指数的市盈率被高估了，”Kee 说。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89bacf663a55cc9456589447184123a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said.</p><p><blockquote>真正让这一切落到实处的是投资者自然风险意识的回归——而目前这种意识严重缺乏。“政府给了他们免费的钱，刺激计划正在全面发挥作用，投资者根本感觉不到任何风险。这才是最危险的!”基说。</blockquote></p><p>He advised investors continue rotating between the SPRD S&P 500 ETF trustSPY,-0.99%and cash. Kee suggested last year staying that course until signs of reversals or that investors were getting worried about central bank stimulus stopping. No signs so far, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他建议投资者继续在 SPRD 标普500 ETF trustSPY,-0.99% 和现金之间轮换。基去年建议维持这一路线，直到出现逆转迹象或投资者开始担心央行刺激措施停止。他说，到目前为止还没有迹象。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors are ignoring a ticking-time-bomb stock market, says this money manager<blockquote>这位基金经理表示，投资者正在忽视定时炸弹股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors are ignoring a ticking-time-bomb stock market, says this money manager<blockquote>这位基金经理表示，投资者正在忽视定时炸弹股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-11 19:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Critical information for the U.S. trading day.</b>Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space, as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国交易日的关键信息。</b>随着通胀担忧继续波及整个市场，周二股市，尤其是科技领域的股市看起来充满风险。由于担心通胀上升可能会促使美联储提前结束因 COVID-19 大流行病而采取的宽松立场，该行业一直首当其冲。</blockquote></p><p>After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear Wednesday’s consumer price datacould also deliver a nasty shock. Not helping are fresh Chinese data on Tuesday showingsurgingfactory-gate prices, though the consumer side was subdued. That is as investors continue to monitor fallout from a downed U.S. energy pipeline.</p><p><blockquote>在上周的就业意外下滑之后，一些人担心周三的消费者价格数据也可能带来严重的冲击。周二公布的中国最新数据显示出厂价飙升，但消费者方面却受到抑制，这也无济于事。与此同时，投资者继续关注美国能源管道中断的影响。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is the “worst-case scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors, warns our<b>call of the day</b>from Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.</p><p><blockquote>我们的分析师警告说，对于这个充满自满投资者的定时炸弹市场来说，通货膨胀是“最坏的情况”。<b>今日看涨期权</b>来自Thomas H.Kee Jr.，Stock Traders Daily总裁兼首席执行官，Equity Logic投资组合经理。</blockquote></p><p>“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation. If inflation comes back, all of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be able to come back to save the day,” Kee told MarketWatch on Monday in an interview via LinkedIn. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought.”</p><p><blockquote>“可以说，刺激措施之所以成为可能，唯一的原因就是没有通货膨胀。如果通货膨胀卷土重来，投资者获得的所有保障措施（刺激措施带来的免费资金）都将消失，无法再挽救局面，”Kee 周一通过 LinkedIn 接受 MarketWatch 采访时表示。他说，最近的就业数据确实表明，物价上涨将 “比之前想象的更严重”。</blockquote></p><p>Investors are disregarding the fact that stocks are very expensive right now, said Kee, wholast Novemberpredicted a 25% drop for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.10%by year-end based on high price/earnings multiples.</p><p><blockquote>Kee 表示，投资者忽视了目前股票非常昂贵的事实，去年 11 月预测道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) 将下跌 25%，由于市盈率较高，到年底将下跌 -0.10%。</blockquote></p><p>Last year, he expected Dow earnings-per-share growth at 32% for 2021, but now sees it surging to 62%, before collapsing to 2.42% in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>去年，他预计道琼斯指数 2021 年每股收益将增长 32%，但现在预计将飙升至 62%，然后在 2022 年暴跌至 2.42%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/365ed838e230cb045d05fffe774347e1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"692\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The declines can be much worse than 25% and if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPXSPX,-1.04%is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x.”</p><p><blockquote>“Kee说：”降幅可能比25%严重得多，如果FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）因通货膨胀而被束缚，投资者习以为常的快速反弹也不会发生。“SPXSPX-1.04% 的公允价值倍数不是 30 倍，而是 35 倍。更像是 15 倍。”</blockquote></p><p>And the price/earnings to growth ratio, which adds in future earnings growth, for the Dow next year is “over 7, and normal fair value is 1.5. It is way overvalued based on that,” said Kee.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数明年的市盈率将 “超过 7，正常公允价值为 1.5。基于此，道琼斯指数的市盈率被高估了，”Kee 说。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89bacf663a55cc9456589447184123a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"688\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said.</p><p><blockquote>真正让这一切落到实处的是投资者自然风险意识的回归——而目前这种意识严重缺乏。“政府给了他们免费的钱，刺激计划正在全面发挥作用，投资者根本感觉不到任何风险。这才是最危险的!”基说。</blockquote></p><p>He advised investors continue rotating between the SPRD S&P 500 ETF trustSPY,-0.99%and cash. Kee suggested last year staying that course until signs of reversals or that investors were getting worried about central bank stimulus stopping. No signs so far, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他建议投资者继续在 SPRD 标普500 ETF trustSPY,-0.99% 和现金之间轮换。基去年建议维持这一路线，直到出现逆转迹象或投资者开始担心央行刺激措施停止。他说，到目前为止还没有迹象。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-ignoring-a-ticking-time-bomb-stock-market-says-this-money-manager-11620731899?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-ignoring-a-ticking-time-bomb-stock-market-says-this-money-manager-11620731899?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146338556","content_text":"Critical information for the U.S. trading day.Tuesday is looking dicey for stocks, notably the technology space, as inflation jitters continue to ripple across markets. The sector has been bearing the brunt of concerns that higher inflation may prompt an early end to the Federal Reserve’s COVID-19 pandemic-driven accommodative stance.After last week’s downside jobs surprise, some fear Wednesday’s consumer price datacould also deliver a nasty shock. Not helping are fresh Chinese data on Tuesday showingsurgingfactory-gate prices, though the consumer side was subdued. That is as investors continue to monitor fallout from a downed U.S. energy pipeline.Inflation is the “worst-case scenario” for this ticking-time-bomb market full of complacent investors, warns ourcall of the dayfrom Thomas H. Kee Jr., president and chief executive of Stock Traders Daily and portfolio manager at Equity Logic.“Arguably, the ONLY reason stimulus has even been possible is because there has been no inflation. If inflation comes back, all of the safeguards investors have been given (free money from stimulus) will be dissolved and won’t be able to come back to save the day,” Kee told MarketWatch on Monday in an interview via LinkedIn. He said recent jobs data indeed suggest price rises will be “more serious than previously thought.”Investors are disregarding the fact that stocks are very expensive right now, said Kee, wholast Novemberpredicted a 25% drop for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.10%by year-end based on high price/earnings multiples.Last year, he expected Dow earnings-per-share growth at 32% for 2021, but now sees it surging to 62%, before collapsing to 2.42% in 2022.“The declines can be much worse than 25% and if the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] is handcuffed because of inflation, the swift bounce back that investors have been used to will not happen either,” said Kee. “The fair value multiple on the SPXSPX,-1.04%is not 30 – [to] 35x. It’s more like 15x.”And the price/earnings to growth ratio, which adds in future earnings growth, for the Dow next year is “over 7, and normal fair value is 1.5. It is way overvalued based on that,” said Kee.What would bring that down to earth is the return of natural-risk perceptions among investors — severely lacking right now. “They have been given free money by the government, stimulus programs are in full effect, and investors don’t perceive any risk at all. That is the most dangerous thing!” Kee said.He advised investors continue rotating between the SPRD S&P 500 ETF trustSPY,-0.99%and cash. Kee suggested last year staying that course until signs of reversals or that investors were getting worried about central bank stimulus stopping. 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