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@凤凰网港股：【金融启示录】标指短期被拉回的压力愈来愈大

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style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，年初至上周四，标指和纳指累计升幅分别高达18.1%和41.4%，表现异常强势，且相对道指只有6.3%进账，走势明显领先。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自去年第四季开始，标指便进入连绵的升浪，尤其踏入今年3月下旬后，美国银行倒闭危机逐步得到缓解，升势更趋明显且持续。<strong>事实上，标指已有超过103个交易日，没有出现单日跌幅达2%或以上。</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">正因如此，投资者对后市发展更应审慎；因为根据同类的统计，可见自金融海啸后，标指往往持续稍多于100个交易日后（一般情况在130个交易日以内）便随时出现“断揽”（即出现单日跌幅多于2%）。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>换言之，目前标指已进入这警戒水平范围内（图1）；</strong>且须留意的是，以往当这记录“断揽”后，标指往往有很大机率（八成以上），在随后约半个月内出现较具深度的回调。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78a5a647cd452b657e0f66ec41e1e9bb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"705\"><span>图1</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">再者，若从技术走势角度看，经历持续的升浪后，标指已过度延伸（Over-extended），现水平已远远抛离50天和200天移动平均线，幅度达20年平均加1个标准差以上（图2）；短期走势被拉回（即调整）的压力已不轻。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5067946bf5edf56da71affeb1a493b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"627\"><span>图2：标指明显高于200天移动平均线</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">无论如何，本周联储局将举行今年第五次的议息会议，市场普遍预期将进一步加息；惟会后声明会否发表更“鹰”的评论，影响市场气氛，进而推动股市借势出现较具深度的回落，值得关注。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">文/财智坊</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>上周四 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 和 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 均出现回吐，其中，后者跌幅较少有地达2%以上；反而， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 表现则仍可力保不失，微升约0.5%。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，年初至上周四，标指和纳指累计升幅分别高达18.1%和41.4%，表现异常强势，且相对道指只有6.3%进账，走势明显领先。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自去年第四季开始，标指便进入连绵的升浪，尤其踏入今年3月下旬后，美国银行倒闭危机逐步得到缓解，升势更趋明显且持续。<strong>事实上，标指已有超过103个交易日，没有出现单日跌幅达2%或以上。</strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">正因如此，投资者对后市发展更应审慎；因为根据同类的统计，可见自金融海啸后，标指往往持续稍多于100个交易日后（一般情况在130个交易日以内）便随时出现“断揽”（即出现单日跌幅多于2%）。</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: 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自去年第四季开始，标指便进入连绵的升浪，尤其踏入今年3月下旬后，美国银行倒闭危机逐步得到缓解，升势更趋明显且持续。事实上，标指已有超过103个交易日，没有出现单日跌幅达2%或以上。 正因如此，投资者对后市发展更应审慎；因为根据同类的统计，可见自金融海啸后，标指往往持续稍多于100个交易日后（一般情况在130个交易日以内）便随时出现“断揽”（即出现单日跌幅多于2%）。 换言之，目前标指已进入这警戒水平范围内（图1）；且须留意的是，以往当这记录“断揽”后，标指往往有很大机率（八成以上），在随后约半个月内出现较具深度的回调。 图1 再者，若从技术走势角度看，经历持续的升浪后，标指已过度延伸（Over-extended），现水平已远远抛离50天和200天移动平均线，幅度达20年平均加1个标准差以上（图2）；短期走势被拉回（即调整）的压力已不轻。 图2：标指明显高于200天移动平均线 无论如何，本周联储局将举行今年第五次的议息会议，市场普遍预期将进一步加息；惟会后声明会否发表更“鹰”的评论，影响市场气氛，进而推动股市借势出现较具深度的回落，值得关注。 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