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2024-02-20

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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n107倍的PE！Arm的大问题：持股90%的大股东软银解禁，就在3月\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-20 10:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3708607><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>因高溢价且流通量小，市场担忧Arm的涨势将很快耗尽，使软银套现蒙受风险。芯片设计巨头Arm股价起飞让软银回了一波血，但另一个问题随之浮现：涨势能持续多久？目前，Arm90%的股份由软银持有，价值约1180亿美元。根据IPO条款，软银在3月后可出售Arm的股票，但考虑到Arm上市流通量小，可能会出现大举抛售导致股价下跌的情形。Arm股价大涨一部分缘于其超预期的业绩报告和盈利预期，但不能忽视的另一个...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3708607\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c52270e1c683d550b2e8417288a06d7c","relate_stocks":{"ARM":"ARM Holdings","BK4220":"综合零售","BK4524":"宅经济概念","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4526":"热门中概股","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU1688375341.USD":"贝莱德中国灵活股票基金","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3708607","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2412971711","content_text":"因高溢价且流通量小，市场担忧Arm的涨势将很快耗尽，使软银套现蒙受风险。芯片设计巨头Arm股价起飞让软银回了一波血，但另一个问题随之浮现：涨势能持续多久？目前，Arm90%的股份由软银持有，价值约1180亿美元。根据IPO条款，软银在3月后可出售Arm的股票，但考虑到Arm上市流通量小，可能会出现大举抛售导致股价下跌的情形。Arm股价大涨一部分缘于其超预期的业绩报告和盈利预期，但不能忽视的另一个原因是其仅有10%的股票在市场上流通，股价敏感性强，容易放大任何走势并加剧做空风险。这也是为何，尽管持有大量Arm股份，但软银的股价涨幅却低于理论预期——市场担心在3月软银解禁前，Arm的涨势会耗尽。FactSet的数据显示，Arm目前的预期市盈率为107倍，而芯片“一哥”英伟达的预期市盈率为59倍，远低于Arm，意味着Arm股价目前被显著“高估”。根据Breakingviews的测算，如果要让Arm最新估值达到符合分析师假设的营业利润率为45%的水平，Arm必须在今年财年内实现收入翻番。考虑到作为主要收入来源之一的许可证收入不稳定、难预估，且Arm赖以生存的智能手机市场的增长正在放缓，“收入翻番”的假设可能很难实现。有媒体观点分析认为，软银可以考虑采取两种途径“解困”。一是用Arm股份作抵押，但该方案的风险在于，一旦AI情绪恶化将会带来股价下跌。二是软银可以效仿此前出售阿里巴巴股份的方式，通过预付远期合约，在几年后用股票或现金结算合同，避免直接向市场抛售股票。在AI热潮的助推下，Arm从去年9月上市以来，股价已经翻了一番，自本月公布了超预期的财报以来，股价更是在三天内涨超90%，目前累计涨幅超过66%。软银股价今年以来累涨26%，自Arm公布最新财报来涨幅达到20%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1442,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/275965240586368"}