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2021-02-03

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Short-sellers were pulling back even before Reddit’s GameStop squeeze<blockquote>甚至在 Reddit 挤压游戏驿站之前，卖空者就已经撤回了</blockquote>

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Right now, short interest is unusually low, says Matthew Ringgenberg, a finance professor at the University of Utah.<blockquote>根据学术研究，卖空对美国股市随后的 12 个月回报率具有很强的预测能力。犹他大学金融学教授马修·林根伯格表示，目前，空头利息异常低。</blockquote> Ringgenberg is a leading expert on the behavior of short sellers. In an interview, he observed: “Even before the recent short squeezes, short interest in December and January was approaching historically low levels. In fact, with the exception of December 2018, this is the lowest short interest has been since before the 2008 crisis.” The data to which he is referring are plotted in the chart below.<blockquote>林根伯格是研究卖空者行为的权威专家。他在接受采访时指出： “即使在最近的空头挤压之前，12 月和 1 月的空头兴趣也已接近历史最低水平。事实上，除 2018 年 12 月外，这是自 2008 年危机前以来的最低水平。”他所指的数据绘制在下图中。</blockquote> Be wary of contrarian investors who interpret low short interest as bearish. Ringgenberg says the contrarians are wrong; his research has found that the short sellers on balance are more right than not.<blockquote>警惕将低空头利息解释为看跌的逆向投资者。林根伯格说逆向投资者是错误的；他的研究发现，平衡上的卖空者是正确的。</blockquote> Note carefully that the chart focuses on the raw short interest ratio. As I have reported in prior columns about Ringgenberg’s research, he has found that the predictive power of the ratio can be improved by calculating where it stands relative to its underlying trend. This adjusted ratio, he adds, is even more bullish than the raw unadjusted ratio.<blockquote>请注意，该图表重点关注原始空头利率。正如我在之前关于林根伯格研究的专栏中所报道的那样，他发现可以通过计算该比率相对于潜在趋势的位置来提高该比率的预测能力。他补充说，这个调整后的比率甚至比原始的未经调整的比率更乐观。</blockquote> Note also that the investment horizon for which this adjusted ratio has shown explanatory power is 12 months. So even if the current prediction is spot-on, it tells us nothing about the path the market takes along the way. It could be, for example, that the S&amp;P 500SPX,+1.39%is higher in 12 months while suffering a steep decline along the way. That’s what happened over the past year.<blockquote>另请注意，该经调整比率具有解释力的投资期限为12个月。因此，即使目前的预测是准确的，它也没有告诉我们任何关于市场前进道路的信息。例如，标准普尔 500SPX 指数可能在 12 个月内上涨 1.39%，同时一路大幅下跌。这就是过去一年发生的事情。</blockquote> One big caveat<blockquote>一个大警告</blockquote> Ringgenberg says that on rare occasions, short sellers are particularly bearish but nevertheless choose not to aggressively sell short. This occurs most typically when investor sentiment is exuberant, the market is volatile, and when certain stocks are trading without any discernible relationship to their underlying fundamentals. During such times, he said, the already-high risks that short sellers face grow to intolerable levels—and many of them retreat to the sidelines.<blockquote>林根伯格表示，在极少数情况下，卖空者特别悲观，但仍然选择不积极卖空。这种情况最常发生在投资者情绪高涨、市场波动以及某些股票的交易与其基本面没有任何明显关系时。他说，在这样的时期，卖空者面临的本已很高的风险会增长到无法忍受的水平，其中许多人退居幕后。</blockquote> I mentioned this phenomenon, referred to as the “limits to arbitrage,” in acolumn last week about the GameStop saga. Perhaps the most prominent historical example of it came at the end of the internet bubble when a number of dot-com companies with no assets, revenue or business plan were propelled to sky-high valuations. The short interest ratio actually declined from 1998 through 2000 despite ever-rising valuations.<blockquote>我在上周关于游戏驿站事件的专栏中提到了这种被称为 “套利极限 ”的现象。也许最突出的历史例子出现在互联网泡沫末期，当时许多没有资产、收入或商业计划的互联网公司被推向了天价估值。尽管估值不断上升，但从1998年到2000年，空头利率实际上有所下降。</blockquote> There are some who currently believe we’re in a bubble similar to the late 1990s. If they’re right, then we should not make too much of short sellers’ lack of aggressiveness. Absent that possibility, the message of the short-sale ratio is bullish for the next 12 months.<blockquote>目前有些人认为，我们正处于类似于 20 世纪 90 年代末的泡沫之中。如果他们是对的，那么我们就不应该过分夸大卖空者缺乏进取心。如果不存在这种可能性，卖空比率的信息在未来 12 个月内是看涨的。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Short-sellers were pulling back even before Reddit’s GameStop squeeze<blockquote>甚至在 Reddit 挤压游戏驿站之前，卖空者就已经撤回了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShort-sellers were pulling back even before Reddit’s GameStop squeeze<blockquote>甚至在 Reddit 挤压游戏驿站之前，卖空者就已经撤回了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-02-03 10:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nShort-sellers in GameStopGME,-60.00%and other targeted stocks have been beaten up recently, but short-selling may be helping to keep the bull market alive.<blockquote>GameStopGME,-60.00% 和其他目标股票的卖空者最近遭受了打击，但卖空可能有助于维持牛市。</blockquote> Short-selling, according to academic research, has strong predictive power for the U.S. stock market’s subsequent 12-month return. Right now, short interest is unusually low, says Matthew Ringgenberg, a finance professor at the University of Utah.<blockquote>根据学术研究，卖空对美国股市随后的 12 个月回报率具有很强的预测能力。犹他大学金融学教授马修·林根伯格表示，目前，空头利息异常低。</blockquote> Ringgenberg is a leading expert on the behavior of short sellers. In an interview, he observed: “Even before the recent short squeezes, short interest in December and January was approaching historically low levels. In fact, with the exception of December 2018, this is the lowest short interest has been since before the 2008 crisis.” The data to which he is referring are plotted in the chart below.<blockquote>林根伯格是研究卖空者行为的权威专家。他在接受采访时指出： “即使在最近的空头挤压之前，12 月和 1 月的空头兴趣也已接近历史最低水平。事实上，除 2018 年 12 月外，这是自 2008 年危机前以来的最低水平。”他所指的数据绘制在下图中。</blockquote> Be wary of contrarian investors who interpret low short interest as bearish. Ringgenberg says the contrarians are wrong; his research has found that the short sellers on balance are more right than not.<blockquote>警惕将低空头利息解释为看跌的逆向投资者。林根伯格说逆向投资者是错误的；他的研究发现，平衡上的卖空者是正确的。</blockquote> Note carefully that the chart focuses on the raw short interest ratio. As I have reported in prior columns about Ringgenberg’s research, he has found that the predictive power of the ratio can be improved by calculating where it stands relative to its underlying trend. This adjusted ratio, he adds, is even more bullish than the raw unadjusted ratio.<blockquote>请注意，该图表重点关注原始空头利率。正如我在之前关于林根伯格研究的专栏中所报道的那样，他发现可以通过计算该比率相对于潜在趋势的位置来提高该比率的预测能力。他补充说，这个调整后的比率甚至比原始的未经调整的比率更乐观。</blockquote> Note also that the investment horizon for which this adjusted ratio has shown explanatory power is 12 months. So even if the current prediction is spot-on, it tells us nothing about the path the market takes along the way. It could be, for example, that the S&amp;P 500SPX,+1.39%is higher in 12 months while suffering a steep decline along the way. That’s what happened over the past year.<blockquote>另请注意，该经调整比率具有解释力的投资期限为12个月。因此，即使目前的预测是准确的，它也没有告诉我们任何关于市场前进道路的信息。例如，标准普尔 500SPX 指数可能在 12 个月内上涨 1.39%，同时一路大幅下跌。这就是过去一年发生的事情。</blockquote> One big caveat<blockquote>一个大警告</blockquote> Ringgenberg says that on rare occasions, short sellers are particularly bearish but nevertheless choose not to aggressively sell short. This occurs most typically when investor sentiment is exuberant, the market is volatile, and when certain stocks are trading without any discernible relationship to their underlying fundamentals. During such times, he said, the already-high risks that short sellers face grow to intolerable levels—and many of them retreat to the sidelines.<blockquote>林根伯格表示，在极少数情况下，卖空者特别悲观，但仍然选择不积极卖空。这种情况最常发生在投资者情绪高涨、市场波动以及某些股票的交易与其基本面没有任何明显关系时。他说，在这样的时期，卖空者面临的本已很高的风险会增长到无法忍受的水平，其中许多人退居幕后。</blockquote> I mentioned this phenomenon, referred to as the “limits to arbitrage,” in acolumn last week about the GameStop saga. Perhaps the most prominent historical example of it came at the end of the internet bubble when a number of dot-com companies with no assets, revenue or business plan were propelled to sky-high valuations. The short interest ratio actually declined from 1998 through 2000 despite ever-rising valuations.<blockquote>我在上周关于游戏驿站事件的专栏中提到了这种被称为 “套利极限 ”的现象。也许最突出的历史例子出现在互联网泡沫末期，当时许多没有资产、收入或商业计划的互联网公司被推向了天价估值。尽管估值不断上升，但从1998年到2000年，空头利率实际上有所下降。</blockquote> There are some who currently believe we’re in a bubble similar to the late 1990s. If they’re right, then we should not make too much of short sellers’ lack of aggressiveness. Absent that possibility, the message of the short-sale ratio is bullish for the next 12 months.<blockquote>目前有些人认为，我们正处于类似于 20 世纪 90 年代末的泡沫之中。如果他们是对的，那么我们就不应该过分夸大卖空者缺乏进取心。如果不存在这种可能性，卖空比率的信息在未来 12 个月内是看涨的。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/short-sellers-were-pulling-back-even-before-reddits-gamestop-squeeze-11612233719?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f274618dde80cee69492990094f7510","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/short-sellers-were-pulling-back-even-before-reddits-gamestop-squeeze-11612233719?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172237562","content_text":"Short-sellers in GameStopGME,-60.00%and other targeted stocks have been beaten up recently, but short-selling may be helping to keep the bull market alive.\nShort-selling, according to academic research, has strong predictive power for the U.S. stock market’s subsequent 12-month return. Right now, short interest is unusually low, says Matthew Ringgenberg, a finance professor at the University of Utah.\nRinggenberg is a leading expert on the behavior of short sellers. In an interview, he observed: “Even before the recent short squeezes, short interest in December and January was approaching historically low levels. In fact, with the exception of December 2018, this is the lowest short interest has been since before the 2008 crisis.” The data to which he is referring are plotted in the chart below.\nBe wary of contrarian investors who interpret low short interest as bearish. Ringgenberg says the contrarians are wrong; his research has found that the short sellers on balance are more right than not.\nNote carefully that the chart focuses on the raw short interest ratio. As I have reported in prior columns about Ringgenberg’s research, he has found that the predictive power of the ratio can be improved by calculating where it stands relative to its underlying trend. This adjusted ratio, he adds, is even more bullish than the raw unadjusted ratio.\nNote also that the investment horizon for which this adjusted ratio has shown explanatory power is 12 months. So even if the current prediction is spot-on, it tells us nothing about the path the market takes along the way. It could be, for example, that the S&P 500SPX,+1.39%is higher in 12 months while suffering a steep decline along the way. That’s what happened over the past year.\nOne big caveat\nRinggenberg says that on rare occasions, short sellers are particularly bearish but nevertheless choose not to aggressively sell short. This occurs most typically when investor sentiment is exuberant, the market is volatile, and when certain stocks are trading without any discernible relationship to their underlying fundamentals. During such times, he said, the already-high risks that short sellers face grow to intolerable levels—and many of them retreat to the sidelines.\nI mentioned this phenomenon, referred to as the “limits to arbitrage,” in acolumn last week about the GameStop saga. Perhaps the most prominent historical example of it came at the end of the internet bubble when a number of dot-com companies with no assets, revenue or business plan were propelled to sky-high valuations. The short interest ratio actually declined from 1998 through 2000 despite ever-rising valuations.\nThere are some who currently believe we’re in a bubble similar to the late 1990s. If they’re right, then we should not make too much of short sellers’ lack of aggressiveness. Absent that possibility, the message of the short-sale ratio is bullish for the next 12 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3885,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/314853308"}