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2021-02-03

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Short-sellers were pulling back even before Reddit’s GameStop squeeze<blockquote>甚至在Reddit的游戏驿站挤压之前，卖空者就已经撤退了</blockquote>

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Right now, short interest is unusually low, says Matthew Ringgenberg, a finance professor at the University of Utah.<blockquote>做空，根据学术研究，对美国股市随后12个月的回报有很强的预测力。犹他大学金融学教授马修·林根伯格表示，目前空头兴趣异常低。</blockquote> Ringgenberg is a leading expert on the behavior of short sellers. In an interview, he observed: “Even before the recent short squeezes, short interest in December and January was approaching historically low levels. In fact, with the exception of December 2018, this is the lowest short interest has been since before the 2008 crisis.” The data to which he is referring are plotted in the chart below.<blockquote>林根伯格是卖空者行为方面的领先专家。他在接受采访时观察到：“即使在最近的空头挤压之前，12月和1月的空头兴趣也接近历史低位。事实上，除了2018年12月，这是自2008年危机前以来空头兴趣的最低水平。”他所指的数据绘制在下图中。</blockquote> Be wary of contrarian investors who interpret low short interest as bearish. Ringgenberg says the contrarians are wrong; his research has found that the short sellers on balance are more right than not.<blockquote>警惕将空头兴趣低解读为看跌的逆向投资者。林根伯格表示，逆向投资者是错误的；他的研究发现，总的来说，卖空者是正确的。</blockquote> Note carefully that the chart focuses on the raw short interest ratio. As I have reported in prior columns about Ringgenberg’s research, he has found that the predictive power of the ratio can be improved by calculating where it stands relative to its underlying trend. This adjusted ratio, he adds, is even more bullish than the raw unadjusted ratio.<blockquote>请仔细注意，该图表重点关注原始空头利率。正如我在之前关于林根伯格研究的专栏中报道的那样，他发现可以通过计算该比率相对于其潜在趋势的位置来提高该比率的预测能力。他补充说，这一调整后的比率甚至比未经调整的原始比率更加乐观。</blockquote> Note also that the investment horizon for which this adjusted ratio has shown explanatory power is 12 months. So even if the current prediction is spot-on, it tells us nothing about the path the market takes along the way. It could be, for example, that the S&amp;P 500SPX,+1.39%is higher in 12 months while suffering a steep decline along the way. That’s what happened over the past year.<blockquote>另请注意，该调整后比率显示出解释力的投资期限为12个月。因此，即使当前的预测是准确的，它也没有告诉我们任何关于市场前进道路的信息。例如，标准普尔500SPX指数可能会在12个月内上涨+1.39%，同时在此过程中大幅下跌。这就是过去一年发生的事情。</blockquote> One big caveat<blockquote>一个大警告</blockquote> Ringgenberg says that on rare occasions, short sellers are particularly bearish but nevertheless choose not to aggressively sell short. This occurs most typically when investor sentiment is exuberant, the market is volatile, and when certain stocks are trading without any discernible relationship to their underlying fundamentals. During such times, he said, the already-high risks that short sellers face grow to intolerable levels—and many of them retreat to the sidelines.<blockquote>林根伯格表示，在极少数情况下，卖空者特别看跌，但仍然选择不大幅卖空。当投资者情绪旺盛、市场波动以及某些股票的交易与其基本面没有任何明显关系时，这种情况最常见。他说，在这种时候，卖空者面临的本已很高的风险会增长到无法忍受的水平，他们中的许多人会退缩到观望状态。</blockquote> I mentioned this phenomenon, referred to as the “limits to arbitrage,” in acolumn last week about the GameStop saga. Perhaps the most prominent historical example of it came at the end of the internet bubble when a number of dot-com companies with no assets, revenue or business plan were propelled to sky-high valuations. The short interest ratio actually declined from 1998 through 2000 despite ever-rising valuations.<blockquote>我在上周关于游戏驿站传奇的专栏中提到了这种被称为“套利极限”的现象。也许最突出的历史例子出现在互联网泡沫结束时，当时许多没有资产、收入或商业计划的互联网公司被推到了天价估值。尽管估值不断上升，但从1998年到2000年，空头利率实际上有所下降。</blockquote> There are some who currently believe we’re in a bubble similar to the late 1990s. If they’re right, then we should not make too much of short sellers’ lack of aggressiveness. Absent that possibility, the message of the short-sale ratio is bullish for the next 12 months.<blockquote>目前有些人认为我们正处于类似于20世纪90年代末的泡沫之中。如果他们是对的，那么我们不应该过分强调卖空者缺乏侵略性。如果没有这种可能性，卖空比率的信息在未来12个月是看涨的。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Short-sellers were pulling back even before Reddit’s GameStop squeeze<blockquote>甚至在Reddit的游戏驿站挤压之前，卖空者就已经撤退了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShort-sellers were pulling back even before Reddit’s GameStop squeeze<blockquote>甚至在Reddit的游戏驿站挤压之前，卖空者就已经撤退了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nmarketwatch2021-02-03 10:46\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nShort-sellers in GameStopGME,-60.00%and other targeted stocks have been beaten up recently, but short-selling may be helping to keep the bull market alive.<blockquote>GameStopGME、-60.00%和其他目标股票的卖空者最近受到了打击，但卖空可能有助于保持牛市的活力。</blockquote> Short-selling, according to academic research, has strong predictive power for the U.S. stock market’s subsequent 12-month return. Right now, short interest is unusually low, says Matthew Ringgenberg, a finance professor at the University of Utah.<blockquote>做空，根据学术研究，对美国股市随后12个月的回报有很强的预测力。犹他大学金融学教授马修·林根伯格表示，目前空头兴趣异常低。</blockquote> Ringgenberg is a leading expert on the behavior of short sellers. In an interview, he observed: “Even before the recent short squeezes, short interest in December and January was approaching historically low levels. In fact, with the exception of December 2018, this is the lowest short interest has been since before the 2008 crisis.” The data to which he is referring are plotted in the chart below.<blockquote>林根伯格是卖空者行为方面的领先专家。他在接受采访时观察到：“即使在最近的空头挤压之前，12月和1月的空头兴趣也接近历史低位。事实上，除了2018年12月，这是自2008年危机前以来空头兴趣的最低水平。”他所指的数据绘制在下图中。</blockquote> Be wary of contrarian investors who interpret low short interest as bearish. Ringgenberg says the contrarians are wrong; his research has found that the short sellers on balance are more right than not.<blockquote>警惕将空头兴趣低解读为看跌的逆向投资者。林根伯格表示，逆向投资者是错误的；他的研究发现，总的来说，卖空者是正确的。</blockquote> Note carefully that the chart focuses on the raw short interest ratio. As I have reported in prior columns about Ringgenberg’s research, he has found that the predictive power of the ratio can be improved by calculating where it stands relative to its underlying trend. This adjusted ratio, he adds, is even more bullish than the raw unadjusted ratio.<blockquote>请仔细注意，该图表重点关注原始空头利率。正如我在之前关于林根伯格研究的专栏中报道的那样，他发现可以通过计算该比率相对于其潜在趋势的位置来提高该比率的预测能力。他补充说，这一调整后的比率甚至比未经调整的原始比率更加乐观。</blockquote> Note also that the investment horizon for which this adjusted ratio has shown explanatory power is 12 months. So even if the current prediction is spot-on, it tells us nothing about the path the market takes along the way. It could be, for example, that the S&amp;P 500SPX,+1.39%is higher in 12 months while suffering a steep decline along the way. That’s what happened over the past year.<blockquote>另请注意，该调整后比率显示出解释力的投资期限为12个月。因此，即使当前的预测是准确的，它也没有告诉我们任何关于市场前进道路的信息。例如，标准普尔500SPX指数可能会在12个月内上涨+1.39%，同时在此过程中大幅下跌。这就是过去一年发生的事情。</blockquote> One big caveat<blockquote>一个大警告</blockquote> Ringgenberg says that on rare occasions, short sellers are particularly bearish but nevertheless choose not to aggressively sell short. This occurs most typically when investor sentiment is exuberant, the market is volatile, and when certain stocks are trading without any discernible relationship to their underlying fundamentals. During such times, he said, the already-high risks that short sellers face grow to intolerable levels—and many of them retreat to the sidelines.<blockquote>林根伯格表示，在极少数情况下，卖空者特别看跌，但仍然选择不大幅卖空。当投资者情绪旺盛、市场波动以及某些股票的交易与其基本面没有任何明显关系时，这种情况最常见。他说，在这种时候，卖空者面临的本已很高的风险会增长到无法忍受的水平，他们中的许多人会退缩到观望状态。</blockquote> I mentioned this phenomenon, referred to as the “limits to arbitrage,” in acolumn last week about the GameStop saga. Perhaps the most prominent historical example of it came at the end of the internet bubble when a number of dot-com companies with no assets, revenue or business plan were propelled to sky-high valuations. The short interest ratio actually declined from 1998 through 2000 despite ever-rising valuations.<blockquote>我在上周关于游戏驿站传奇的专栏中提到了这种被称为“套利极限”的现象。也许最突出的历史例子出现在互联网泡沫结束时，当时许多没有资产、收入或商业计划的互联网公司被推到了天价估值。尽管估值不断上升，但从1998年到2000年，空头利率实际上有所下降。</blockquote> There are some who currently believe we’re in a bubble similar to the late 1990s. If they’re right, then we should not make too much of short sellers’ lack of aggressiveness. Absent that possibility, the message of the short-sale ratio is bullish for the next 12 months.<blockquote>目前有些人认为我们正处于类似于20世纪90年代末的泡沫之中。如果他们是对的，那么我们不应该过分强调卖空者缺乏侵略性。如果没有这种可能性，卖空比率的信息在未来12个月是看涨的。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/short-sellers-were-pulling-back-even-before-reddits-gamestop-squeeze-11612233719?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f274618dde80cee69492990094f7510","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/short-sellers-were-pulling-back-even-before-reddits-gamestop-squeeze-11612233719?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172237562","content_text":"Short-sellers in GameStopGME,-60.00%and other targeted stocks have been beaten up recently, but short-selling may be helping to keep the bull market alive.\nShort-selling, according to academic research, has strong predictive power for the U.S. stock market’s subsequent 12-month return. Right now, short interest is unusually low, says Matthew Ringgenberg, a finance professor at the University of Utah.\nRinggenberg is a leading expert on the behavior of short sellers. In an interview, he observed: “Even before the recent short squeezes, short interest in December and January was approaching historically low levels. In fact, with the exception of December 2018, this is the lowest short interest has been since before the 2008 crisis.” The data to which he is referring are plotted in the chart below.\nBe wary of contrarian investors who interpret low short interest as bearish. Ringgenberg says the contrarians are wrong; his research has found that the short sellers on balance are more right than not.\nNote carefully that the chart focuses on the raw short interest ratio. As I have reported in prior columns about Ringgenberg’s research, he has found that the predictive power of the ratio can be improved by calculating where it stands relative to its underlying trend. This adjusted ratio, he adds, is even more bullish than the raw unadjusted ratio.\nNote also that the investment horizon for which this adjusted ratio has shown explanatory power is 12 months. So even if the current prediction is spot-on, it tells us nothing about the path the market takes along the way. It could be, for example, that the S&P 500SPX,+1.39%is higher in 12 months while suffering a steep decline along the way. That’s what happened over the past year.\nOne big caveat\nRinggenberg says that on rare occasions, short sellers are particularly bearish but nevertheless choose not to aggressively sell short. This occurs most typically when investor sentiment is exuberant, the market is volatile, and when certain stocks are trading without any discernible relationship to their underlying fundamentals. During such times, he said, the already-high risks that short sellers face grow to intolerable levels—and many of them retreat to the sidelines.\nI mentioned this phenomenon, referred to as the “limits to arbitrage,” in acolumn last week about the GameStop saga. Perhaps the most prominent historical example of it came at the end of the internet bubble when a number of dot-com companies with no assets, revenue or business plan were propelled to sky-high valuations. The short interest ratio actually declined from 1998 through 2000 despite ever-rising valuations.\nThere are some who currently believe we’re in a bubble similar to the late 1990s. If they’re right, then we should not make too much of short sellers’ lack of aggressiveness. Absent that possibility, the message of the short-sale ratio is bullish for the next 12 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3120,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/314853308"}