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2021-03-16
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How to Play the Valuation Gap Between Growth and Value Stocks
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":322712588,"tweetId":"322712588","gmtCreate":1615826864944,"gmtModify":1703493745881,"author":{"id":3571888408679376,"idStr":"3571888408679376","authorId":3571888408679376,"authorIdStr":"3571888408679376","name":"DonnaLiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39ed8f97a10f354c3b280f588a8361f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Thx for sharing</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Thx for sharing</p></body></html>","text":"Thx for sharing","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322712588","repostId":1125447158,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125447158","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615814739,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125447158?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 21:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to Play the Valuation Gap Between Growth and Value Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125447158","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and theS&P 500 indexdropped 0.8%, Motamed’sInvenomicfund soared 5.8% because he was betting against the popular tech stocks and for the unpopular value ones.That’s right—beaten-up value stocks arefinally winning. Both theRussell 2000 Value Indexof the smallest, cheapest stocks and theRussell 1000 Value Indexof the largest are beating their Russell gr","content":"<p>Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and theS&P 500 indexdropped 0.8%, Motamed’sInvenomicfund soared 5.8% because he was betting against the popular tech stocks and for the unpopular value ones.</p>\n<p>That’s right—beaten-up value stocks arefinally winning. Both theRussell 2000 Value Indexof the smallest, cheapest stocks and theRussell 1000 Value Indexof the largest are beating their Russell growth counterparts by more than 10 percentage points this year. And this time, afternumerous head-fakes—including a one-day surge among tech stocks this week—the comeback seems for real.</p>\n<p>“We still have among the biggest spreads in valuation between value and growth stocks that we’ve ever had,” says Motamed. That, plus the promise of fiscal stimulus, has driven up value stocks, which are generally weaker, more cyclical, or more economically sensitive than growth stocks. Consequently. Motamed’s value-oriented fund (ticker: BIVRX), is the No. 1 fund this year in Morningstar’s Long-Short Equity category, with a 26% return.</p>\n<p>How wide is the valuation gap? That depends on which metric you use. The most traditional one is price-to-book value, which examines a company’s hard assets. TheRussell 3000 Growth Indexhad aP/B of 11.1at the end of January versus theRussell 3000 Value’sP/B of 2.5. Historically, value managers searched for companies trading below one times book value for bargains. The valuation spread is currently at “the peak of the [2000] tech-bubble levels,” says Rob Arnott, founding chairman of Research Affiliates, which manages $153 billion. “So, I look on this as the first big step in what’s likely to be a long march back for value.”</p>\n<p>Yet book value doesn’t measure technology companies well, as they often have little in the way of physical assets. Another metric is the Shiller price/earnings ratio, which normalizes, or smooths out, earnings for stocks in the ratio by averaging them over the past 10 years. U.S. large-cap stocks overall have a 35.5 Shiller P/E, a valuation not seen since their peak of 44 during the 1999-2000 tech bubble. U.S. value stocks have a Shiller P/E of 21.6, and growth 46.8. “If you look at a Shiller P/E ratio, growth is insanely expensive, and value is cheap, relative to the market,” Arnott says, “but not quite cheap relative to its historic norms.” He says value stocks need to fall 5% and growth 50% to achieve fair value in accordance with historic norms.</p>\n<p>For this reason, Arnott favors foreign stocks, and emerging market stocks especially, which are cheaper overall than U.S. stocks. Emerging markets value stocks have a 10 Shiller P/E. “I have about half of my liquid assets in emerging markets deep value,” he says.</p>\n<p>But someone like Motamed can play the spread in valuation by going long value in gold miner stocks like Kinross Gold(KGC), and short tech stocks likeApple(AAPL) or Shopify(SHOP). “I can buy gold [miner] equities that in many cases are unlevered [zero debt] or becoming unlevered, well below book value, with enormous cash flows,” he says.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, “Apple is just a misrepresentation of a growth company,” Motamed says, pointing to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. “If you look at Apple’s Ebitda, it made $82 billion in 2015. In the last year, it did $86 billion in Ebitda. That’s a 1% growth rate. They’ve saturated their market.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09d27b2c4cadcd6bcc6e57e39b8ffa9b\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"337\"></p>\n<p>Some value-oriented managers have a more nuanced view. Chris Davis, chairman of Davis Advisors and manager ofSelected American(SLADX), says there’s a distinction between what he calls “growth stalwarts” likeAlphabet(GOOGL) and more speculative fare. Google, he says, has “incredible cash-generation ability” and a dominant position in search engines that’s nearly impossible to dislodge.</p>\n<p>What Davis wants in growth stocks is proven cash flow generation, not expected cash flow years down the road. The distinction between current growth and expected growth is a vital one now because it isn’t just the promise of stimulus driving cyclical value stocks up, but rising interest rates driving high-priced growth stocks down. The stimulus Wall Street expects will cause inflation, which makes bonds with low yields less attractive, so rates on 10-year Treasury notes, after hitting a low of 0.5% last year, are now 1.5%.</p>\n<p>Companies with high valuations likeTesla(TSLA), which has a 172 forward P/E, have much of their earnings growth in the future, and consequently have low earnings yields, which is the inverse of their P/E ratios—0.6% in Tesla’s case. Those yields compare more unfavorably to bonds with each increase in rates. “Growth stocks are longer-duration equities,” explains Scott McBride, manager ofHotchkis & Wiley Large Cap Value(HWLAX) “Their cash flows are further out into the future. A move in interest rates has a bigger impact on price, just like it has a bigger impact on the price of long-duration bonds.” Bond prices move inversely with rates, and long-duration ones are more sensitive to rates.</p>\n<p>In addition,traditional value sectorscan benefit from rising rates, especially banks, which can increase profit margins on their loans by charging more for them as rates rise. Meanwhile, inflation should drive up prices of hard-asset-based energy, gold mining, and real estate stocks.</p>\n<p>That said, some managers think the reversal will be temporary. Mitch Rubin, manager of theRiverPark Long/Short Opportunity(RLSFX), which favors growth stocks, says rates were so low to begin with that what is happening now is really a “period of normalizing stable rates.” Long-term bonds rates below 5% are generally good for growth companies that can borrow cheaply and expand, he says.</p>\n<p>Rubin owns Apple and other stocks Motamed is shorting. “We don’t think Apple is done as an innovator,” he says. His fund is up only 1.8% this year, but it has beaten every other long/short fund in the past five years.</p>\n<p>Whether he or Motamed wins in the next five years is the question.They’ve saturated their market.”</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to Play the Valuation Gap Between Growth and Value Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to Play the Valuation Gap Between Growth and Value Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-15 21:25 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=barrons-on-marketwatch><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and theS&P 500 indexdropped 0.8%, Motamed’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=barrons-on-marketwatch\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/value-stocks-are-starting-to-outpace-their-growth-counterparts-51615589128?mod=barrons-on-marketwatch","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1125447158","content_text":"Monday, Feb. 22, was a great day for Ali Motamed, but a bad one for most investors. While the popular, technology-driven Nasdaq 100 index fell 2.6% and theS&P 500 indexdropped 0.8%, Motamed’sInvenomicfund soared 5.8% because he was betting against the popular tech stocks and for the unpopular value ones.\nThat’s right—beaten-up value stocks arefinally winning. Both theRussell 2000 Value Indexof the smallest, cheapest stocks and theRussell 1000 Value Indexof the largest are beating their Russell growth counterparts by more than 10 percentage points this year. And this time, afternumerous head-fakes—including a one-day surge among tech stocks this week—the comeback seems for real.\n“We still have among the biggest spreads in valuation between value and growth stocks that we’ve ever had,” says Motamed. That, plus the promise of fiscal stimulus, has driven up value stocks, which are generally weaker, more cyclical, or more economically sensitive than growth stocks. Consequently. Motamed’s value-oriented fund (ticker: BIVRX), is the No. 1 fund this year in Morningstar’s Long-Short Equity category, with a 26% return.\nHow wide is the valuation gap? That depends on which metric you use. The most traditional one is price-to-book value, which examines a company’s hard assets. TheRussell 3000 Growth Indexhad aP/B of 11.1at the end of January versus theRussell 3000 Value’sP/B of 2.5. Historically, value managers searched for companies trading below one times book value for bargains. The valuation spread is currently at “the peak of the [2000] tech-bubble levels,” says Rob Arnott, founding chairman of Research Affiliates, which manages $153 billion. “So, I look on this as the first big step in what’s likely to be a long march back for value.”\nYet book value doesn’t measure technology companies well, as they often have little in the way of physical assets. Another metric is the Shiller price/earnings ratio, which normalizes, or smooths out, earnings for stocks in the ratio by averaging them over the past 10 years. U.S. large-cap stocks overall have a 35.5 Shiller P/E, a valuation not seen since their peak of 44 during the 1999-2000 tech bubble. U.S. value stocks have a Shiller P/E of 21.6, and growth 46.8. “If you look at a Shiller P/E ratio, growth is insanely expensive, and value is cheap, relative to the market,” Arnott says, “but not quite cheap relative to its historic norms.” He says value stocks need to fall 5% and growth 50% to achieve fair value in accordance with historic norms.\nFor this reason, Arnott favors foreign stocks, and emerging market stocks especially, which are cheaper overall than U.S. stocks. Emerging markets value stocks have a 10 Shiller P/E. “I have about half of my liquid assets in emerging markets deep value,” he says.\nBut someone like Motamed can play the spread in valuation by going long value in gold miner stocks like Kinross Gold(KGC), and short tech stocks likeApple(AAPL) or Shopify(SHOP). “I can buy gold [miner] equities that in many cases are unlevered [zero debt] or becoming unlevered, well below book value, with enormous cash flows,” he says.\nMeanwhile, “Apple is just a misrepresentation of a growth company,” Motamed says, pointing to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. “If you look at Apple’s Ebitda, it made $82 billion in 2015. In the last year, it did $86 billion in Ebitda. That’s a 1% growth rate. They’ve saturated their market.”\n\nSome value-oriented managers have a more nuanced view. Chris Davis, chairman of Davis Advisors and manager ofSelected American(SLADX), says there’s a distinction between what he calls “growth stalwarts” likeAlphabet(GOOGL) and more speculative fare. Google, he says, has “incredible cash-generation ability” and a dominant position in search engines that’s nearly impossible to dislodge.\nWhat Davis wants in growth stocks is proven cash flow generation, not expected cash flow years down the road. The distinction between current growth and expected growth is a vital one now because it isn’t just the promise of stimulus driving cyclical value stocks up, but rising interest rates driving high-priced growth stocks down. The stimulus Wall Street expects will cause inflation, which makes bonds with low yields less attractive, so rates on 10-year Treasury notes, after hitting a low of 0.5% last year, are now 1.5%.\nCompanies with high valuations likeTesla(TSLA), which has a 172 forward P/E, have much of their earnings growth in the future, and consequently have low earnings yields, which is the inverse of their P/E ratios—0.6% in Tesla’s case. Those yields compare more unfavorably to bonds with each increase in rates. “Growth stocks are longer-duration equities,” explains Scott McBride, manager ofHotchkis & Wiley Large Cap Value(HWLAX) “Their cash flows are further out into the future. A move in interest rates has a bigger impact on price, just like it has a bigger impact on the price of long-duration bonds.” Bond prices move inversely with rates, and long-duration ones are more sensitive to rates.\nIn addition,traditional value sectorscan benefit from rising rates, especially banks, which can increase profit margins on their loans by charging more for them as rates rise. Meanwhile, inflation should drive up prices of hard-asset-based energy, gold mining, and real estate stocks.\nThat said, some managers think the reversal will be temporary. Mitch Rubin, manager of theRiverPark Long/Short Opportunity(RLSFX), which favors growth stocks, says rates were so low to begin with that what is happening now is really a “period of normalizing stable rates.” Long-term bonds rates below 5% are generally good for growth companies that can borrow cheaply and expand, he says.\nRubin owns Apple and other stocks Motamed is shorting. “We don’t think Apple is done as an innovator,” he says. His fund is up only 1.8% this year, but it has beaten every other long/short fund in the past five years.\nWhether he or Motamed wins in the next five years is the question.They’ve saturated their market.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":920,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/322712588"}
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