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2021-03-09
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This clear signal says the big tech unwind isn’t done yet, according to strategist<blockquote>策略师表示，这一明确信号表明大型科技股的放松尚未完成</blockquote>
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Futures are also pointing to a sharp rebound for technology stocks after the Nasdaq Composite fell into correction territory on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>随着债券市场的压力继续缓解，庆祝超过1.9万亿美元的刺激计划仍在继续，为周二的道琼斯指数32,000点做好准备。期货还表明，在纳斯达克综合指数周一跌入回调区域后，科技股将大幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> One valid question to ask right now is, how much more of a pullback for techs will we see? “Our work on positioning suggests that the big tech unwind may be at least halfway done, but isn’t finished,” said Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital’s head of U.S. equity strategy, in our <b>call of the day</b>.</p><p><blockquote>现在要问的一个有效问题是，我们会看到科技股进一步回调多少？加拿大皇家银行资本(RBC Capital)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)在我们的报告中表示：“我们的定位工作表明，大型科技股的平仓可能至少已经完成了一半，但还没有结束。”<b>今日看涨期权</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina based this on a tracking of weekly Nasdaq futures contracts, provided by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The data are used by some on Wall Street as a measure of sentiment of how hedge funds and institutional investors are positioning in the U.S. equity markets.</p><p><blockquote>Calvasina基于美国商品期货交易委员会提供的每周纳斯达克期货合约跟踪。华尔街的一些人使用这些数据来衡量对冲基金和机构投资者在美国股市的定位。</blockquote></p><p> “This indicator…returned to 2013-2014 peaks on a dollar value basis [left image] earlier this year, and to levels that have marked the peak several times since then in terms of the number of contracts owned [right image],” she said. “While U.S. equity futures positioning generally has been highlighting risk of a pullback in stocks in recent months, that signal has been the most clear in Nasdaq positioning.”</p><p><blockquote>“今年早些时候，该指标……以美元价值计算回到了2013-2014年的峰值[左图]，并在拥有的合约数量方面多次达到峰值的水平[右图]，”她说。“虽然近几个月来美国股指期货仓位普遍凸显了股市回调的风险，但这一信号在纳斯达克仓位中最为明显。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6281c4e4ef83849068bf0c3a1e1adfbe\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"636\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As of the last update (last Tuesday’s close), the decline in Nasdaq futures positioning was roughly halfway back to the lows of 2018 in terms of dollar value and contracts, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，截至上次更新（上周二收盘），就美元价值和合约而言，纳斯达克期货头寸的跌幅约为2018年低点的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina also suggested investors keep an eye on valuations for the tech + internet + media + telecom (TIMT) space, based on where those levels were in the bubble of 2000.</p><p><blockquote>Calvasina还建议投资者根据2000年泡沫中的水平，密切关注科技+互联网+媒体+电信(TIMT)领域的估值。</blockquote></p><p> “Our work here also suggests that big tech underperformance hasn’t run its course,” she said, even with sharp falls seen early this year, the weighted median forward price/earnings measure of TIMT sits at 26.2 times, well above a long-term average of 18.3 times. It is also elevated on a forward price/earnings relative to the S&P 500.</p><p><blockquote>她表示：“我们在这里的工作还表明，大型科技公司的表现不佳还没有结束。”尽管今年早些时候出现了大幅下跌，但TIMT的加权预期市盈率中位数仍为26.2倍，远高于长期平均水平18.3倍。相对于标普500，它的远期市盈率也有所提高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7306c8462ecd9679fb16c08ac3a469c7\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"646\"><span>UNCREDITED</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>未记入</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As for what investors should do now, Calvasina has been telling clients that small-caps look cheap versus large-caps, and financials, energy and material don’t look expensive yet.</p><p><blockquote>至于投资者现在应该做什么，卡尔瓦西纳一直告诉客户，与大盘股相比，小盘股看起来很便宜，而金融、能源和材料股看起来还不贵。</blockquote></p><p> She is also eyeing the midcap space for a few reasons. Firstly, the Russell Midcap and S&P 400 MidCap benchmark indexes are more exposed to cyclical sectors than TIMT, futures positioning on those smaller stocks isn’t looking stretched (see chart below) and valuations look attractive versus large-caps, and reasonable versus smaller companies, she argues.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，她也关注中型股领域。首先，罗素中型股和标准普尔400中型股基准指数比TIMT更容易受到周期性行业的影响，这些小型股票的期货头寸看起来并不紧张（见下图），估值与大盘股相比看起来很有吸引力，与小型股相比也很合理。她认为，公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/750d414832524e7c7c6e718db9a1d110\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"653\"><span>UNCREDITED</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>未记入</span></p></blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been advising managers to move down market cap, given the tendency of low market cap to outperform within the Russell 1000 coming out of recessions and over time,” said Calvasina.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“我们一直建议管理者降低市值，因为随着时间的推移，低市值往往会跑赢罗素1000指数。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock futures are pointing to gains across the board, led by beaten-down techs,up 2%. European markets are rising. That is as pressure on bonds ease up, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note down 7 basis points to 1.52%.</p><p><blockquote>股指期货全线上涨，其中科技股上涨2%。欧洲市场正在上涨。与此同时，债券压力有所缓解，10年期美国国债收益率下跌7个基点至1.52%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表</b></blockquote></p><p> It was a bumpy ride on Tuesday for China’s CSI 3000,which lost 2.1%, evenamid a reportthat Chinese state funds were buying stocks.</p><p><blockquote>周二，中国沪深3000指数经历了坎坷，尽管有报道称中国国家基金正在购买股票，但该指数仍下跌2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2dd0668688161c84ab8c9e5a6d520a8\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"482\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The quote</b></p><p><blockquote><b>引用</b></blockquote></p><p> “I’m happy that the market is broadening out.” That was Cathie Wood, founder of the popular ARK Investment Management and exchange-traded funds like ARK Innovation,speaking in aBloomberg interviewlate on Monday. She says she’s finding opportunities in the recent tech selloff.</p><p><blockquote>“我很高兴市场正在扩大。”这是广受欢迎的ARK Investment Management和ARK Innovation等交易所交易基金的创始人凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)周一在彭博社采访中发表的讲话。她表示，她正在最近的科技股抛售中寻找机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The buzz</b></p><p><blockquote><b>嗡嗡声</b></blockquote></p><p> One stock that several ARK ETFs are exposed to is electric-car maker Tesla.The tech selloff has erasedmore than a quarter of a trillion dollarsoff the electric-car maker’s market cap in just over a month. But shares are up about 5% in premarket.</p><p><blockquote>多只ARK ETF投资的一只股票是电动汽车制造商特斯拉。在短短一个多月的时间里，科技股的抛售使这家电动汽车制造商的市值蒸发了超过25万亿美元。但盘前股价上涨约5%。</blockquote></p><p> Small businesses are less anxious, but wrestling with an uneven recovery, the latest data compiled by the National Federation of Independent Business showed.</p><p><blockquote>全国独立企业联合会汇编的最新数据显示，小企业不那么焦虑，但正在努力应对不均衡的复苏。</blockquote></p><p> The COVID-19 vaccine from drug company Pfizer and its partner BioNTech neutralized a fast-spreading Brazilian variant of coronavirus,according to a new study.And Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine will soon beproduced in Europe.</p><p><blockquote>根据一项新的研究，制药公司辉瑞及其合作伙伴BioNTech的新冠肺炎疫苗中和了一种快速传播的巴西冠状病毒变种。俄国的“卫星-V”疫苗也将很快在欧洲生产。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Shares of videogames retailer GameStop,the poster child of the retail frenzy from earlier this year, aresurging in premarketafter the company said it has createda new strategy committee to identify ways to accelerate its transformation. The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the GameStop saga on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>视频游戏零售商游戏驿站是今年早些时候零售狂潮的典型代表，该公司表示已成立新的战略委员会来确定加速转型的方法，该公司的股价在盘前上涨。参议院银行委员会将于周二就游戏驿站事件举行听证会。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix shares are tumbling, after the retailer’s sales numbersfell short of Wall Street hopes.</p><p><blockquote>在零售商Stitch Fix的销售数据低于华尔街的希望后，该公司股价暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> Zoom founder Eric Yuan transferred $6 billion worth of his shares to unspecified beneficiaries last week,says a regulatory filing.</p><p><blockquote>一份监管文件称，Zoom创始人Eric Yuan上周将价值60亿美元的股票转让给了未指明的受益人。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This clear signal says the big tech unwind isn’t done yet, according to strategist<blockquote>策略师表示，这一明确信号表明大型科技股的放松尚未完成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis clear signal says the big tech unwind isn’t done yet, according to strategist<blockquote>策略师表示，这一明确信号表明大型科技股的放松尚未完成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-09 20:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Critical information for the U.S. trading day</p><p><blockquote>美国交易日关键信息</blockquote></p><p> Get that Dow 32,000 beanie hat ready for Tuesday, as pressure in the bond market continues to ease and celebrating over a $1.9 trillion stimulus package carries on a bit. Futures are also pointing to a sharp rebound for technology stocks after the Nasdaq Composite fell into correction territory on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>随着债券市场的压力继续缓解，庆祝超过1.9万亿美元的刺激计划仍在继续，为周二的道琼斯指数32,000点做好准备。期货还表明，在纳斯达克综合指数周一跌入回调区域后，科技股将大幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> One valid question to ask right now is, how much more of a pullback for techs will we see? “Our work on positioning suggests that the big tech unwind may be at least halfway done, but isn’t finished,” said Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital’s head of U.S. equity strategy, in our <b>call of the day</b>.</p><p><blockquote>现在要问的一个有效问题是，我们会看到科技股进一步回调多少？加拿大皇家银行资本(RBC Capital)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)在我们的报告中表示：“我们的定位工作表明，大型科技股的平仓可能至少已经完成了一半，但还没有结束。”<b>今日看涨期权</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina based this on a tracking of weekly Nasdaq futures contracts, provided by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The data are used by some on Wall Street as a measure of sentiment of how hedge funds and institutional investors are positioning in the U.S. equity markets.</p><p><blockquote>Calvasina基于美国商品期货交易委员会提供的每周纳斯达克期货合约跟踪。华尔街的一些人使用这些数据来衡量对冲基金和机构投资者在美国股市的定位。</blockquote></p><p> “This indicator…returned to 2013-2014 peaks on a dollar value basis [left image] earlier this year, and to levels that have marked the peak several times since then in terms of the number of contracts owned [right image],” she said. “While U.S. equity futures positioning generally has been highlighting risk of a pullback in stocks in recent months, that signal has been the most clear in Nasdaq positioning.”</p><p><blockquote>“今年早些时候，该指标……以美元价值计算回到了2013-2014年的峰值[左图]，并在拥有的合约数量方面多次达到峰值的水平[右图]，”她说。“虽然近几个月来美国股指期货仓位普遍凸显了股市回调的风险，但这一信号在纳斯达克仓位中最为明显。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6281c4e4ef83849068bf0c3a1e1adfbe\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"636\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As of the last update (last Tuesday’s close), the decline in Nasdaq futures positioning was roughly halfway back to the lows of 2018 in terms of dollar value and contracts, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，截至上次更新（上周二收盘），就美元价值和合约而言，纳斯达克期货头寸的跌幅约为2018年低点的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina also suggested investors keep an eye on valuations for the tech + internet + media + telecom (TIMT) space, based on where those levels were in the bubble of 2000.</p><p><blockquote>Calvasina还建议投资者根据2000年泡沫中的水平，密切关注科技+互联网+媒体+电信(TIMT)领域的估值。</blockquote></p><p> “Our work here also suggests that big tech underperformance hasn’t run its course,” she said, even with sharp falls seen early this year, the weighted median forward price/earnings measure of TIMT sits at 26.2 times, well above a long-term average of 18.3 times. It is also elevated on a forward price/earnings relative to the S&P 500.</p><p><blockquote>她表示：“我们在这里的工作还表明，大型科技公司的表现不佳还没有结束。”尽管今年早些时候出现了大幅下跌，但TIMT的加权预期市盈率中位数仍为26.2倍，远高于长期平均水平18.3倍。相对于标普500，它的远期市盈率也有所提高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7306c8462ecd9679fb16c08ac3a469c7\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"646\"><span>UNCREDITED</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>未记入</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As for what investors should do now, Calvasina has been telling clients that small-caps look cheap versus large-caps, and financials, energy and material don’t look expensive yet.</p><p><blockquote>至于投资者现在应该做什么，卡尔瓦西纳一直告诉客户，与大盘股相比，小盘股看起来很便宜，而金融、能源和材料股看起来还不贵。</blockquote></p><p> She is also eyeing the midcap space for a few reasons. Firstly, the Russell Midcap and S&P 400 MidCap benchmark indexes are more exposed to cyclical sectors than TIMT, futures positioning on those smaller stocks isn’t looking stretched (see chart below) and valuations look attractive versus large-caps, and reasonable versus smaller companies, she argues.</p><p><blockquote>出于几个原因，她也关注中型股领域。首先，罗素中型股和标准普尔400中型股基准指数比TIMT更容易受到周期性行业的影响，这些小型股票的期货头寸看起来并不紧张（见下图），估值与大盘股相比看起来很有吸引力，与小型股相比也很合理。她认为，公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/750d414832524e7c7c6e718db9a1d110\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"653\"><span>UNCREDITED</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>未记入</span></p></blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been advising managers to move down market cap, given the tendency of low market cap to outperform within the Russell 1000 coming out of recessions and over time,” said Calvasina.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“我们一直建议管理者降低市值，因为随着时间的推移，低市值往往会跑赢罗素1000指数。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock futures are pointing to gains across the board, led by beaten-down techs,up 2%. European markets are rising. That is as pressure on bonds ease up, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note down 7 basis points to 1.52%.</p><p><blockquote>股指期货全线上涨，其中科技股上涨2%。欧洲市场正在上涨。与此同时，债券压力有所缓解，10年期美国国债收益率下跌7个基点至1.52%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The chart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表</b></blockquote></p><p> It was a bumpy ride on Tuesday for China’s CSI 3000,which lost 2.1%, evenamid a reportthat Chinese state funds were buying stocks.</p><p><blockquote>周二，中国沪深3000指数经历了坎坷，尽管有报道称中国国家基金正在购买股票，但该指数仍下跌2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2dd0668688161c84ab8c9e5a6d520a8\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"482\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The quote</b></p><p><blockquote><b>引用</b></blockquote></p><p> “I’m happy that the market is broadening out.” That was Cathie Wood, founder of the popular ARK Investment Management and exchange-traded funds like ARK Innovation,speaking in aBloomberg interviewlate on Monday. She says she’s finding opportunities in the recent tech selloff.</p><p><blockquote>“我很高兴市场正在扩大。”这是广受欢迎的ARK Investment Management和ARK Innovation等交易所交易基金的创始人凯西·伍德(Cathie Wood)周一在彭博社采访中发表的讲话。她表示，她正在最近的科技股抛售中寻找机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The buzz</b></p><p><blockquote><b>嗡嗡声</b></blockquote></p><p> One stock that several ARK ETFs are exposed to is electric-car maker Tesla.The tech selloff has erasedmore than a quarter of a trillion dollarsoff the electric-car maker’s market cap in just over a month. But shares are up about 5% in premarket.</p><p><blockquote>多只ARK ETF投资的一只股票是电动汽车制造商特斯拉。在短短一个多月的时间里，科技股的抛售使这家电动汽车制造商的市值蒸发了超过25万亿美元。但盘前股价上涨约5%。</blockquote></p><p> Small businesses are less anxious, but wrestling with an uneven recovery, the latest data compiled by the National Federation of Independent Business showed.</p><p><blockquote>全国独立企业联合会汇编的最新数据显示，小企业不那么焦虑，但正在努力应对不均衡的复苏。</blockquote></p><p> The COVID-19 vaccine from drug company Pfizer and its partner BioNTech neutralized a fast-spreading Brazilian variant of coronavirus,according to a new study.And Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine will soon beproduced in Europe.</p><p><blockquote>根据一项新的研究，制药公司辉瑞及其合作伙伴BioNTech的新冠肺炎疫苗中和了一种快速传播的巴西冠状病毒变种。俄国的“卫星-V”疫苗也将很快在欧洲生产。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Shares of videogames retailer GameStop,the poster child of the retail frenzy from earlier this year, aresurging in premarketafter the company said it has createda new strategy committee to identify ways to accelerate its transformation. The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the GameStop saga on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>视频游戏零售商游戏驿站是今年早些时候零售狂潮的典型代表，该公司表示已成立新的战略委员会来确定加速转型的方法，该公司的股价在盘前上涨。参议院银行委员会将于周二就游戏驿站事件举行听证会。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix shares are tumbling, after the retailer’s sales numbersfell short of Wall Street hopes.</p><p><blockquote>在零售商Stitch Fix的销售数据低于华尔街的希望后，该公司股价暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> Zoom founder Eric Yuan transferred $6 billion worth of his shares to unspecified beneficiaries last week,says a regulatory filing.</p><p><blockquote>一份监管文件称，Zoom创始人Eric Yuan上周将价值60亿美元的股票转让给了未指明的受益人。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-clear-signal-says-the-big-tech-unwind-isnt-done-yet-according-to-strategist-11615292077?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-clear-signal-says-the-big-tech-unwind-isnt-done-yet-according-to-strategist-11615292077?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1111423037","content_text":"Critical information for the U.S. trading day\nGet that Dow 32,000 beanie hat ready for Tuesday, as pressure in the bond market continues to ease and celebrating over a $1.9 trillion stimulus package carries on a bit. Futures are also pointing to a sharp rebound for technology stocks after the Nasdaq Composite fell into correction territory on Monday.\nOne valid question to ask right now is, how much more of a pullback for techs will we see? “Our work on positioning suggests that the big tech unwind may be at least halfway done, but isn’t finished,” said Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital’s head of U.S. equity strategy, in our call of the day.\nCalvasina based this on a tracking of weekly Nasdaq futures contracts, provided by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The data are used by some on Wall Street as a measure of sentiment of how hedge funds and institutional investors are positioning in the U.S. equity markets.\n“This indicator…returned to 2013-2014 peaks on a dollar value basis [left image] earlier this year, and to levels that have marked the peak several times since then in terms of the number of contracts owned [right image],” she said. “While U.S. equity futures positioning generally has been highlighting risk of a pullback in stocks in recent months, that signal has been the most clear in Nasdaq positioning.”\n\nAs of the last update (last Tuesday’s close), the decline in Nasdaq futures positioning was roughly halfway back to the lows of 2018 in terms of dollar value and contracts, she said.\nCalvasina also suggested investors keep an eye on valuations for the tech + internet + media + telecom (TIMT) space, based on where those levels were in the bubble of 2000.\n“Our work here also suggests that big tech underperformance hasn’t run its course,” she said, even with sharp falls seen early this year, the weighted median forward price/earnings measure of TIMT sits at 26.2 times, well above a long-term average of 18.3 times. It is also elevated on a forward price/earnings relative to the S&P 500.\nUNCREDITED\nAs for what investors should do now, Calvasina has been telling clients that small-caps look cheap versus large-caps, and financials, energy and material don’t look expensive yet.\nShe is also eyeing the midcap space for a few reasons. Firstly, the Russell Midcap and S&P 400 MidCap benchmark indexes are more exposed to cyclical sectors than TIMT, futures positioning on those smaller stocks isn’t looking stretched (see chart below) and valuations look attractive versus large-caps, and reasonable versus smaller companies, she argues.\nUNCREDITED\n“We’ve been advising managers to move down market cap, given the tendency of low market cap to outperform within the Russell 1000 coming out of recessions and over time,” said Calvasina.\nThe markets\nStock futures are pointing to gains across the board, led by beaten-down techs,up 2%. European markets are rising. That is as pressure on bonds ease up, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note down 7 basis points to 1.52%.\nThe chart\nIt was a bumpy ride on Tuesday for China’s CSI 3000,which lost 2.1%, evenamid a reportthat Chinese state funds were buying stocks.\n\nThe quote\n“I’m happy that the market is broadening out.” That was Cathie Wood, founder of the popular ARK Investment Management and exchange-traded funds like ARK Innovation,speaking in aBloomberg interviewlate on Monday. She says she’s finding opportunities in the recent tech selloff.\nThe buzz\nOne stock that several ARK ETFs are exposed to is electric-car maker Tesla.The tech selloff has erasedmore than a quarter of a trillion dollarsoff the electric-car maker’s market cap in just over a month. But shares are up about 5% in premarket.\nSmall businesses are less anxious, but wrestling with an uneven recovery, the latest data compiled by the National Federation of Independent Business showed.\nThe COVID-19 vaccine from drug company Pfizer and its partner BioNTech neutralized a fast-spreading Brazilian variant of coronavirus,according to a new study.And Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine will soon beproduced in Europe.\nShares of videogames retailer GameStop,the poster child of the retail frenzy from earlier this year, aresurging in premarketafter the company said it has createda new strategy committee to identify ways to accelerate its transformation. The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the GameStop saga on Tuesday.\nStitch Fix shares are tumbling, after the retailer’s sales numbersfell short of Wall Street hopes.\nZoom founder Eric Yuan transferred $6 billion worth of his shares to unspecified beneficiaries last week,says a regulatory filing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/323042591"}
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