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2021-03-17

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Wall Street's biggest fear isn't Covid. It's inflation<blockquote>华尔街最大的恐惧不是新冠病毒。这是通货膨胀</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":324001851,"tweetId":"324001851","gmtCreate":1615941434873,"gmtModify":1703495253148,"author":{"id":3574750085628633,"idStr":"3574750085628633","authorId":3574750085628633,"authorIdStr":"3574750085628633","name":"needtoberich","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ffed362505ee15ca732ec69ae335a5","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":13,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[惊吓]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[惊吓]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"[惊吓]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324001851","repostId":1119939035,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119939035","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615941183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119939035?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 08:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street's biggest fear isn't Covid. It's inflation<blockquote>华尔街最大的恐惧不是新冠病毒。这是通货膨胀</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119939035","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - Coronavirus fears shook Wall Street to its core last March. The Dow crashe","content":"New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;Coronavirus fears shook Wall Street to its core last March. The Dow&nbsp;crashed nearly 3,000 points— a stunning 13% — a year ago today.<blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）——去年三月，对冠状病毒的担忧彻底动摇了华尔街。一年前的今天，道琼斯指数暴跌近3000点，跌幅惊人的13%。</blockquote> Flash forward 12 months and the&nbsp;health crisis is not over,but investors are increasingly&nbsp;confident it soonwill be.<blockquote>12个月过去了，健康危机还没有结束，但投资者越来越相信它很快就会结束。</blockquote> For the first time since February 2020, Covid-19 is no longer the No. 1 fear among portfolio managers surveyed by Bank of America, the bank said Tuesday.<blockquote>美国银行周二表示，自2020年2月以来，Covid-19首次不再是接受美国银行调查的投资组合经理的头号担忧。</blockquote> If anything, experienced investors are now&nbsp;concerned that the economy could recover so rapidly&nbsp;that it overheats.<blockquote>如果说有什么不同的话，那就是经验丰富的投资者现在担心经济复苏可能会过热。</blockquote> Inflation is now the top risk cited by portfolio managers polled by Bank of America. The second most common concern is&nbsp;taper tantrums, which occur when markets freak out over surging bond yields.<blockquote>通货膨胀现在是美国银行调查的投资组合经理提到的最大风险。第二个最常见的担忧是缩减恐慌，当市场对债券收益率飙升感到恐慌时就会发生这种情况。</blockquote> The findings underscore how drastically the situation has changed during the past year. Confidence is growing because of the rollout of vaccines, easing health safety restrictions and unprecedented support from the federal government.<blockquote>这些发现凸显了过去一年情况发生了多么巨大的变化。由于疫苗的推出、健康安全限制的放松以及联邦政府前所未有的支持，信心正在增强。</blockquote> \"Investor sentiment [is] unambiguously bullish,\" Bank of America strategists wrote in the Tuesday report.<blockquote>美国银行策略师在周二的报告中写道：“投资者情绪明显看涨。”</blockquote> US stocks recovered swiftly from the pandemic. The Dow bottomed at 18,592 on March 23. The index is up a staggering 77% since then. The Nasdaq has doubled over that span.<blockquote>美国股市从疫情中迅速复苏。道指于3月23日触底至18,592点。自那以来，该指数上涨了惊人的77%。纳斯达克在此期间翻了一番。</blockquote> Hottest economy in decades<blockquote>几十年来最热的经济</blockquote> Economists are also very optimistic, especially because Uncle Sam is providing much more support for the economy than many thought was likely just a few months ago. Last week, Congress passed President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Package.<blockquote>经济学家也非常乐观，特别是因为山姆大叔为经济提供的支持比许多人几个月前想象的要多得多。上周，国会通过了乔·拜登总统的1.9万亿美元美国救助计划。</blockquote> Goldman Sachs is now calling for&nbsp;the US economy to register&nbsp;China-like GDP growth&nbsp;of 7% on a full-year basis in 2021. That would be the&nbsp;fastest pace for the United States since 1984. And Goldman Sachs expects the US economy will be 8% larger at the end of 2021, compared with the end of last year. By that measure, it would be the&nbsp;fastest GDP growth since 1965.<blockquote>高盛现在呼吁美国经济在2021年全年GDP增长7%，类似中国。这将是美国自1984年以来最快的速度。高盛预计，与去年年底相比，2021年底美国经济规模将增长8%。按照这一标准，这将是自1965年以来最快的GDP增长。</blockquote> Almost half (48%) of fund managers polled by Bank of America now expect a V-shaped recovery, up from just 10% who predicted that in May 2020.<blockquote>美国银行调查的基金经理中，近一半(48%)现在预计将出现V型复苏，高于2020年5月预测的仅10%。</blockquote> A record 91% of sophisticated investors expect a stronger economy, surpassing the confidence signaled after the Trump tax cuts were passed in late 2017 and during the early stages of the recovery from the Great Recession.<blockquote>创纪录的91%的成熟投资者预计经济将走强，超过了2017年底特朗普减税政策通过后以及从大衰退中复苏的早期阶段所表现出的信心。</blockquote> Inflation fears surge. But are they overdone?<blockquote>通胀担忧激增。但是他们做得太过分了吗？</blockquote> But all of this optimism — on top of unprecedented stimulus from Congress and the Fed — is making some on Wall Street concerned that the economy could overheat.<blockquote>但所有这些乐观情绪——加上国会和美联储前所未有的刺激措施——让华尔街的一些人担心经济可能会过热。</blockquote> The big fear is that resurgent inflation causes the Federal Reserve to rapidly raise interest rates, short-circuiting the economic recovery and the market boom. That's what happened in the 1970s and early 1980s when the Paul Volcker-led central bank tamed inflation with aggressive interest rate hikes.<blockquote>最大的担忧是，通胀死灰复燃导致美联储迅速加息，使经济复苏和市场繁荣短路。这就是20世纪70年代和80年代初发生的情况，当时保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)领导的央行通过大幅加息来抑制通胀。</blockquote> A record 93% of fund managers expect higher global inflation over the next 12 months, according to Bank of America. That's up from 85% who said that in February.<blockquote>美国银行的数据显示，创纪录的93%的基金经理预计未来12个月全球通胀将上升。这一比例高于2月份85%的人。</blockquote> However, US officials have pushed back against inflation fears. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said inflation may move higher, but only temporarily.<blockquote>然而，美国官员对通胀担忧进行了反击。周末，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，通胀可能会走高，但只是暂时的。</blockquote> \"To get a sustained high inflation like we had in the 1970s, I absolutely don't expect that,\"Yellen told ABC.<blockquote>耶伦对美国广播公司表示：“要像20世纪70年代那样出现持续的高通胀，我绝对没有想到会出现这种情况。”</blockquote> Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory Yardeni Research, isn't overly worried about runaway inflation because about 10 million US workers are still unemployed due to the pandemic.<blockquote>投资咨询公司Yardeni Research总裁埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)并不过度担心通胀失控，因为约有1000万美国工人仍因疫情而失业。</blockquote> \"A 1970s-style wage-price spiral now is unlikely, in our opinion, notwithstanding the fiscal and monetary excesses of our government,\" Yardeni wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.<blockquote>亚德尼在周二给客户的一份报告中写道：“我们认为，尽管我们政府在财政和货币上过度扩张，但现在不太可能出现20世纪70年代式的工资价格螺旋式上升。”</blockquote> The tipping point for bond yields<blockquote>债券收益率的临界点</blockquote> A related risk is a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, when Treasury yields spiked after the Fed signaled it would gradually slow bond purchases as the economy recovered. Higher Treasury rates could make stocks look less attractive by comparison.<blockquote>一个相关的风险是2013年缩减恐慌的重演，当时美联储暗示将随着经济复苏逐步放缓债券购买，美国国债收益率飙升。相比之下，较高的国债利率可能会降低股票的吸引力。</blockquote> After crashing to 0.3% last spring, the 10-year Treasury rate recently climbed to 1.6%. The spike in yields unsettled investors, driving US stocks sharply lower before they rebounded.<blockquote>在去年春天暴跌至0.3%后，10年期国债利率最近攀升至1.6%。收益率飙升令投资者不安，导致美股大幅走低，随后反弹。</blockquote> So how high would yields have to climb to derail the bull market?<blockquote>那么，收益率必须攀升到多高才能让牛市脱轨呢？</blockquote> Bank of America said 2% on the 10-year Treasury \"could be the level of reckoning for stocks.\" Almost half of the fund managers surveyed said 2% yields would cause a 10% correction in stocks. Similarly, about half of the investors indicated a 10-year Treasury rate of 2% or 2.5% would make bonds attractive relative to stocks.<blockquote>美国银行表示，10年期国债利率2%“可能是股市的清算水平”。近一半接受调查的基金经理表示，2%的收益率将导致股市出现10%的回调。同样，大约一半的投资者表示，2%或2.5%的10年期国债利率将使债券相对于股票具有吸引力。</blockquote> Recent action in financial markets is also raising concern about bubble-like behavior. Investors are&nbsp;plowing vast sums of cash&nbsp;into&nbsp;shell companies&nbsp;known as SPACs. IPOs have skyrocketed on their first day of trading. And an&nbsp;army of traders on Reddit&nbsp;was able to catapult shares of&nbsp;GameStop(GME),AMC(AMC)&nbsp;and other companies to untenable highs.<blockquote>金融市场最近的行动也引发了人们对泡沫行为的担忧。投资者正在向被称为SPAC的空壳公司投入大量现金。首次公开募股在首日交易中飙升。Reddit上的一大群交易员能够将游戏驿站(GME)、AMC(AMC)和其他公司的股价推升至难以维持的高位。</blockquote> Yet professional investors don't see a bubble, at least not yet. Just 15% of investors think the US stock market is in a bubble, according to the Bank of America survey. A quarter say the stock market is in an early-stage bull market, while 55% say it's in a late-stage bull market.<blockquote>然而，专业投资者并没有看到泡沫，至少现在还没有。美国银行的调查显示，只有15%的投资者认为美国股市存在泡沫。四分之一的人表示股市正处于牛市初期，而55%的人表示股市正处于牛市后期。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street's biggest fear isn't Covid. It's inflation<blockquote>华尔街最大的恐惧不是新冠病毒。这是通货膨胀</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street's biggest fear isn't Covid. It's inflation<blockquote>华尔街最大的恐惧不是新冠病毒。这是通货膨胀</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nCNN Business2021-03-17 08:33\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nNew York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;Coronavirus fears shook Wall Street to its core last March. The Dow&nbsp;crashed nearly 3,000 points— a stunning 13% — a year ago today.<blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）——去年三月，对冠状病毒的担忧彻底动摇了华尔街。一年前的今天，道琼斯指数暴跌近3000点，跌幅惊人的13%。</blockquote> Flash forward 12 months and the&nbsp;health crisis is not over,but investors are increasingly&nbsp;confident it soonwill be.<blockquote>12个月过去了，健康危机还没有结束，但投资者越来越相信它很快就会结束。</blockquote> For the first time since February 2020, Covid-19 is no longer the No. 1 fear among portfolio managers surveyed by Bank of America, the bank said Tuesday.<blockquote>美国银行周二表示，自2020年2月以来，Covid-19首次不再是接受美国银行调查的投资组合经理的头号担忧。</blockquote> If anything, experienced investors are now&nbsp;concerned that the economy could recover so rapidly&nbsp;that it overheats.<blockquote>如果说有什么不同的话，那就是经验丰富的投资者现在担心经济复苏可能会过热。</blockquote> Inflation is now the top risk cited by portfolio managers polled by Bank of America. The second most common concern is&nbsp;taper tantrums, which occur when markets freak out over surging bond yields.<blockquote>通货膨胀现在是美国银行调查的投资组合经理提到的最大风险。第二个最常见的担忧是缩减恐慌，当市场对债券收益率飙升感到恐慌时就会发生这种情况。</blockquote> The findings underscore how drastically the situation has changed during the past year. Confidence is growing because of the rollout of vaccines, easing health safety restrictions and unprecedented support from the federal government.<blockquote>这些发现凸显了过去一年情况发生了多么巨大的变化。由于疫苗的推出、健康安全限制的放松以及联邦政府前所未有的支持，信心正在增强。</blockquote> \"Investor sentiment [is] unambiguously bullish,\" Bank of America strategists wrote in the Tuesday report.<blockquote>美国银行策略师在周二的报告中写道：“投资者情绪明显看涨。”</blockquote> US stocks recovered swiftly from the pandemic. The Dow bottomed at 18,592 on March 23. The index is up a staggering 77% since then. The Nasdaq has doubled over that span.<blockquote>美国股市从疫情中迅速复苏。道指于3月23日触底至18,592点。自那以来，该指数上涨了惊人的77%。纳斯达克在此期间翻了一番。</blockquote> Hottest economy in decades<blockquote>几十年来最热的经济</blockquote> Economists are also very optimistic, especially because Uncle Sam is providing much more support for the economy than many thought was likely just a few months ago. Last week, Congress passed President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Package.<blockquote>经济学家也非常乐观，特别是因为山姆大叔为经济提供的支持比许多人几个月前想象的要多得多。上周，国会通过了乔·拜登总统的1.9万亿美元美国救助计划。</blockquote> Goldman Sachs is now calling for&nbsp;the US economy to register&nbsp;China-like GDP growth&nbsp;of 7% on a full-year basis in 2021. That would be the&nbsp;fastest pace for the United States since 1984. And Goldman Sachs expects the US economy will be 8% larger at the end of 2021, compared with the end of last year. By that measure, it would be the&nbsp;fastest GDP growth since 1965.<blockquote>高盛现在呼吁美国经济在2021年全年GDP增长7%，类似中国。这将是美国自1984年以来最快的速度。高盛预计，与去年年底相比，2021年底美国经济规模将增长8%。按照这一标准，这将是自1965年以来最快的GDP增长。</blockquote> Almost half (48%) of fund managers polled by Bank of America now expect a V-shaped recovery, up from just 10% who predicted that in May 2020.<blockquote>美国银行调查的基金经理中，近一半(48%)现在预计将出现V型复苏，高于2020年5月预测的仅10%。</blockquote> A record 91% of sophisticated investors expect a stronger economy, surpassing the confidence signaled after the Trump tax cuts were passed in late 2017 and during the early stages of the recovery from the Great Recession.<blockquote>创纪录的91%的成熟投资者预计经济将走强，超过了2017年底特朗普减税政策通过后以及从大衰退中复苏的早期阶段所表现出的信心。</blockquote> Inflation fears surge. But are they overdone?<blockquote>通胀担忧激增。但是他们做得太过分了吗？</blockquote> But all of this optimism — on top of unprecedented stimulus from Congress and the Fed — is making some on Wall Street concerned that the economy could overheat.<blockquote>但所有这些乐观情绪——加上国会和美联储前所未有的刺激措施——让华尔街的一些人担心经济可能会过热。</blockquote> The big fear is that resurgent inflation causes the Federal Reserve to rapidly raise interest rates, short-circuiting the economic recovery and the market boom. That's what happened in the 1970s and early 1980s when the Paul Volcker-led central bank tamed inflation with aggressive interest rate hikes.<blockquote>最大的担忧是，通胀死灰复燃导致美联储迅速加息，使经济复苏和市场繁荣短路。这就是20世纪70年代和80年代初发生的情况，当时保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)领导的央行通过大幅加息来抑制通胀。</blockquote> A record 93% of fund managers expect higher global inflation over the next 12 months, according to Bank of America. That's up from 85% who said that in February.<blockquote>美国银行的数据显示，创纪录的93%的基金经理预计未来12个月全球通胀将上升。这一比例高于2月份85%的人。</blockquote> However, US officials have pushed back against inflation fears. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said inflation may move higher, but only temporarily.<blockquote>然而，美国官员对通胀担忧进行了反击。周末，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，通胀可能会走高，但只是暂时的。</blockquote> \"To get a sustained high inflation like we had in the 1970s, I absolutely don't expect that,\"Yellen told ABC.<blockquote>耶伦对美国广播公司表示：“要像20世纪70年代那样出现持续的高通胀，我绝对没有想到会出现这种情况。”</blockquote> Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory Yardeni Research, isn't overly worried about runaway inflation because about 10 million US workers are still unemployed due to the pandemic.<blockquote>投资咨询公司Yardeni Research总裁埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)并不过度担心通胀失控，因为约有1000万美国工人仍因疫情而失业。</blockquote> \"A 1970s-style wage-price spiral now is unlikely, in our opinion, notwithstanding the fiscal and monetary excesses of our government,\" Yardeni wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.<blockquote>亚德尼在周二给客户的一份报告中写道：“我们认为，尽管我们政府在财政和货币上过度扩张，但现在不太可能出现20世纪70年代式的工资价格螺旋式上升。”</blockquote> The tipping point for bond yields<blockquote>债券收益率的临界点</blockquote> A related risk is a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, when Treasury yields spiked after the Fed signaled it would gradually slow bond purchases as the economy recovered. Higher Treasury rates could make stocks look less attractive by comparison.<blockquote>一个相关的风险是2013年缩减恐慌的重演，当时美联储暗示将随着经济复苏逐步放缓债券购买，美国国债收益率飙升。相比之下，较高的国债利率可能会降低股票的吸引力。</blockquote> After crashing to 0.3% last spring, the 10-year Treasury rate recently climbed to 1.6%. The spike in yields unsettled investors, driving US stocks sharply lower before they rebounded.<blockquote>在去年春天暴跌至0.3%后，10年期国债利率最近攀升至1.6%。收益率飙升令投资者不安，导致美股大幅走低，随后反弹。</blockquote> So how high would yields have to climb to derail the bull market?<blockquote>那么，收益率必须攀升到多高才能让牛市脱轨呢？</blockquote> Bank of America said 2% on the 10-year Treasury \"could be the level of reckoning for stocks.\" Almost half of the fund managers surveyed said 2% yields would cause a 10% correction in stocks. Similarly, about half of the investors indicated a 10-year Treasury rate of 2% or 2.5% would make bonds attractive relative to stocks.<blockquote>美国银行表示，10年期国债利率2%“可能是股市的清算水平”。近一半接受调查的基金经理表示，2%的收益率将导致股市出现10%的回调。同样，大约一半的投资者表示，2%或2.5%的10年期国债利率将使债券相对于股票具有吸引力。</blockquote> Recent action in financial markets is also raising concern about bubble-like behavior. Investors are&nbsp;plowing vast sums of cash&nbsp;into&nbsp;shell companies&nbsp;known as SPACs. IPOs have skyrocketed on their first day of trading. And an&nbsp;army of traders on Reddit&nbsp;was able to catapult shares of&nbsp;GameStop(GME),AMC(AMC)&nbsp;and other companies to untenable highs.<blockquote>金融市场最近的行动也引发了人们对泡沫行为的担忧。投资者正在向被称为SPAC的空壳公司投入大量现金。首次公开募股在首日交易中飙升。Reddit上的一大群交易员能够将游戏驿站(GME)、AMC(AMC)和其他公司的股价推升至难以维持的高位。</blockquote> Yet professional investors don't see a bubble, at least not yet. Just 15% of investors think the US stock market is in a bubble, according to the Bank of America survey. A quarter say the stock market is in an early-stage bull market, while 55% say it's in a late-stage bull market.<blockquote>然而，专业投资者并没有看到泡沫，至少现在还没有。美国银行的调查显示，只有15%的投资者认为美国股市存在泡沫。四分之一的人表示股市正处于牛市初期，而55%的人表示股市正处于牛市后期。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/16/investing/wall-street-covid-inflation-economy/index.html\">CNN Business</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/16/investing/wall-street-covid-inflation-economy/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119939035","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - Coronavirus fears shook Wall Street to its core last March. The Dow crashed nearly 3,000 points— a stunning 13% — a year ago today.\nFlash forward 12 months and the health crisis is not over,but investors are increasingly confident it soonwill be.\nFor the first time since February 2020, Covid-19 is no longer the No. 1 fear among portfolio managers surveyed by Bank of America, the bank said Tuesday.\nIf anything, experienced investors are now concerned that the economy could recover so rapidly that it overheats.\nInflation is now the top risk cited by portfolio managers polled by Bank of America. The second most common concern is taper tantrums, which occur when markets freak out over surging bond yields.\nThe findings underscore how drastically the situation has changed during the past year. Confidence is growing because of the rollout of vaccines, easing health safety restrictions and unprecedented support from the federal government.\n\"Investor sentiment [is] unambiguously bullish,\" Bank of America strategists wrote in the Tuesday report.\nUS stocks recovered swiftly from the pandemic. The Dow bottomed at 18,592 on March 23. The index is up a staggering 77% since then. The Nasdaq has doubled over that span.\nHottest economy in decades\nEconomists are also very optimistic, especially because Uncle Sam is providing much more support for the economy than many thought was likely just a few months ago. Last week, Congress passed President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Package.\nGoldman Sachs is now calling for the US economy to register China-like GDP growth of 7% on a full-year basis in 2021. That would be the fastest pace for the United States since 1984. And Goldman Sachs expects the US economy will be 8% larger at the end of 2021, compared with the end of last year. By that measure, it would be the fastest GDP growth since 1965.\nAlmost half (48%) of fund managers polled by Bank of America now expect a V-shaped recovery, up from just 10% who predicted that in May 2020.\nA record 91% of sophisticated investors expect a stronger economy, surpassing the confidence signaled after the Trump tax cuts were passed in late 2017 and during the early stages of the recovery from the Great Recession.\nInflation fears surge. But are they overdone?\nBut all of this optimism — on top of unprecedented stimulus from Congress and the Fed — is making some on Wall Street concerned that the economy could overheat.\nThe big fear is that resurgent inflation causes the Federal Reserve to rapidly raise interest rates, short-circuiting the economic recovery and the market boom. That's what happened in the 1970s and early 1980s when the Paul Volcker-led central bank tamed inflation with aggressive interest rate hikes.\nA record 93% of fund managers expect higher global inflation over the next 12 months, according to Bank of America. That's up from 85% who said that in February.\nHowever, US officials have pushed back against inflation fears. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said inflation may move higher, but only temporarily.\n\"To get a sustained high inflation like we had in the 1970s, I absolutely don't expect that,\"Yellen told ABC.\nEd Yardeni, president of investment advisory Yardeni Research, isn't overly worried about runaway inflation because about 10 million US workers are still unemployed due to the pandemic.\n\"A 1970s-style wage-price spiral now is unlikely, in our opinion, notwithstanding the fiscal and monetary excesses of our government,\" Yardeni wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.\nThe tipping point for bond yields\nA related risk is a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, when Treasury yields spiked after the Fed signaled it would gradually slow bond purchases as the economy recovered. Higher Treasury rates could make stocks look less attractive by comparison.\nAfter crashing to 0.3% last spring, the 10-year Treasury rate recently climbed to 1.6%. The spike in yields unsettled investors, driving US stocks sharply lower before they rebounded.\nSo how high would yields have to climb to derail the bull market?\nBank of America said 2% on the 10-year Treasury \"could be the level of reckoning for stocks.\" Almost half of the fund managers surveyed said 2% yields would cause a 10% correction in stocks. Similarly, about half of the investors indicated a 10-year Treasury rate of 2% or 2.5% would make bonds attractive relative to stocks.\nRecent action in financial markets is also raising concern about bubble-like behavior. Investors are plowing vast sums of cash into shell companies known as SPACs. IPOs have skyrocketed on their first day of trading. And an army of traders on Reddit was able to catapult shares of GameStop(GME),AMC(AMC) and other companies to untenable highs.\nYet professional investors don't see a bubble, at least not yet. Just 15% of investors think the US stock market is in a bubble, according to the Bank of America survey. A quarter say the stock market is in an early-stage bull market, while 55% say it's in a late-stage bull market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":672,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/324001851"}