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2021-03-17

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Why the health-care sector — not gold — is the best inflation hedge<blockquote>为什么医疗保健行业——而不是黄金——是最好的通胀对冲工具</blockquote>

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Most investors would say gold and gol","content":"Which industry historically has been the best inflation hedge? Most investors would say gold and gold mining. The correct answer is health care, according to study I conducted on the performance of 49 industry groups since 1926. I relied on&nbsp;data from Dartmouth College professor Ken French.<blockquote>历史上哪个行业是最好的通胀对冲工具？大多数投资者会说黄金和金矿开采。根据我自1926年以来对49个行业团体的表现进行的研究，正确答案是医疗保健。我依赖于达特茅斯学院教授肯·弗伦奇的数据。</blockquote> Consider the extent to which changes in the Consumer Price Index over the trailing 24 months explain or predict contemporaneous changes in an index of health care stocks. (The statistic I calculated is known as the r-squared: A reading of 100% would mean that changes in the CPI explained and predicted all of the changes in the health care industry, while a reading of 0% would mean that the CPI had no explanatory power.) When focusing on all data since 1926, the r-squared is a statistically significant 23.2%. No other industry group comes close.<blockquote>考虑过去24个月消费者价格指数的变化在多大程度上解释或预测了医疗保健股票指数的同期变化。（我计算的统计数据被称为r平方：100%的读数意味着CPI的变化解释并预测了医疗保健行业的所有变化，而0%的读数意味着CPI没有解释力。）当关注1926年以来的所有数据时，r平方是统计上显著的23.2%。没有其他行业团体能与之媲美。</blockquote> Gold&nbsp;is in second place, and its comparable r-squared is 13.6%. (I reached similar results when focusing on just the period since the early 1970s, which is when gold bullion ownership in the U.S. became legal.)<blockquote>黄金位居第二，可比r平方为13.6%。（当我只关注20世纪70年代初以来的时期时，也得出了类似的结果，当时金条所有权在美国变得合法。）</blockquote> You shouldn’t be surprised that health care beats out other industries in hedging inflation. That’s because demand for health care is relatively immune from inflationary pressures. Except for the most elective of procedures you’re not likely to turn down medical care because of increasing price. Consider how fast the&nbsp;CPI for medical care&nbsp;has increased since the late 1940s (the earliest for which data are available): It has increased by a multiple of 40 over the ensuing seven decades. Over the same period, the&nbsp;regular CPI&nbsp;has increased by a factor of 12. (These rates of increase are equivalent to 5.1% and 3.4% on an annualized basis).<blockquote>你不应该对医疗保健在对冲通胀方面击败其他行业感到惊讶。这是因为医疗保健需求相对不受通胀压力的影响。除了最具选择性的手术，你不太可能因为价格上涨而拒绝医疗护理。想想自20世纪40年代末（有数据可查的最早）以来，医疗保健CPI的增长速度有多快：在接下来的70年里，它增长了40倍。同期，常规CPI上涨了12倍。（按年计算，该等增长率相当于5.1%及3.4%）。</blockquote> Nor should you be surprised that gold mining shares have not done as well as health care stocks. The relationship between the CPI and gold’s price has been anything but stable or consistent over time, as you can see from the chart below. That’s another way of saying that sometimes gold greatly outpaces inflation and other times in which it significantly lags.<blockquote>你也不应该对金矿股的表现不如医疗保健股感到惊讶。从下图可以看出，随着时间的推移，CPI和黄金价格之间的关系一点也不稳定或一致。这是另一种说法，有时黄金大大超过通货膨胀，而其他时候则明显滞后。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f65b64d7e3a53ee5648945b538d54382\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"><blockquote></blockquote> You might be interested to know which industry historically has been the worst inflation hedge. The answer: candy; snacks and soda. The reason is that demand for the products sold by these companies are extremely price sensitive — just the opposite of health care services.<blockquote>你可能有兴趣知道哪个行业在历史上是最糟糕的通胀对冲。答案是：糖果；小吃和苏打水。原因是对这些公司销售的产品的需求对价格极其敏感——与医疗保健服务正好相反。</blockquote> What about the overall stock market, as represented by indices such as the S&amp;P 500? I focused on this index’s inflation-hedging abilities in&nbsp;a column several weeks ago, pointing out that most investors fail to appreciate that a stock market index fund is one of the best long-term inflation hedges available. Because of investors’ mistake, however, the broad stock market historically has been a poor inflation hedge over the shorter term of a year or two. It only becomes an excellent hedge when bought and held over periods of several decades.<blockquote>以标普500等指数为代表的整体股市呢？几周前，我在一篇专栏文章中重点讨论了该指数的通胀对冲能力，指出大多数投资者没有意识到股市指数基金是最好的长期通胀对冲工具之一。然而，由于投资者的错误，从历史上看，大盘股市在一两年的短期内对冲通胀的能力很差。只有在购买并持有数十年后，它才会成为绝佳的对冲工具。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the health-care sector — not gold — is the best inflation hedge<blockquote>为什么医疗保健行业——而不是黄金——是最好的通胀对冲工具</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the health-care sector — not gold — is the best inflation hedge<blockquote>为什么医疗保健行业——而不是黄金——是最好的通胀对冲工具</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-03-17 13:50\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWhich industry historically has been the best inflation hedge? Most investors would say gold and gold mining. The correct answer is health care, according to study I conducted on the performance of 49 industry groups since 1926. I relied on&nbsp;data from Dartmouth College professor Ken French.<blockquote>历史上哪个行业是最好的通胀对冲工具？大多数投资者会说黄金和金矿开采。根据我自1926年以来对49个行业团体的表现进行的研究，正确答案是医疗保健。我依赖于达特茅斯学院教授肯·弗伦奇的数据。</blockquote> Consider the extent to which changes in the Consumer Price Index over the trailing 24 months explain or predict contemporaneous changes in an index of health care stocks. (The statistic I calculated is known as the r-squared: A reading of 100% would mean that changes in the CPI explained and predicted all of the changes in the health care industry, while a reading of 0% would mean that the CPI had no explanatory power.) When focusing on all data since 1926, the r-squared is a statistically significant 23.2%. No other industry group comes close.<blockquote>考虑过去24个月消费者价格指数的变化在多大程度上解释或预测了医疗保健股票指数的同期变化。（我计算的统计数据被称为r平方：100%的读数意味着CPI的变化解释并预测了医疗保健行业的所有变化，而0%的读数意味着CPI没有解释力。）当关注1926年以来的所有数据时，r平方是统计上显著的23.2%。没有其他行业团体能与之媲美。</blockquote> Gold&nbsp;is in second place, and its comparable r-squared is 13.6%. (I reached similar results when focusing on just the period since the early 1970s, which is when gold bullion ownership in the U.S. became legal.)<blockquote>黄金位居第二，可比r平方为13.6%。（当我只关注20世纪70年代初以来的时期时，也得出了类似的结果，当时金条所有权在美国变得合法。）</blockquote> You shouldn’t be surprised that health care beats out other industries in hedging inflation. That’s because demand for health care is relatively immune from inflationary pressures. Except for the most elective of procedures you’re not likely to turn down medical care because of increasing price. Consider how fast the&nbsp;CPI for medical care&nbsp;has increased since the late 1940s (the earliest for which data are available): It has increased by a multiple of 40 over the ensuing seven decades. Over the same period, the&nbsp;regular CPI&nbsp;has increased by a factor of 12. (These rates of increase are equivalent to 5.1% and 3.4% on an annualized basis).<blockquote>你不应该对医疗保健在对冲通胀方面击败其他行业感到惊讶。这是因为医疗保健需求相对不受通胀压力的影响。除了最具选择性的手术，你不太可能因为价格上涨而拒绝医疗护理。想想自20世纪40年代末（有数据可查的最早）以来，医疗保健CPI的增长速度有多快：在接下来的70年里，它增长了40倍。同期，常规CPI上涨了12倍。（按年计算，该等增长率相当于5.1%及3.4%）。</blockquote> Nor should you be surprised that gold mining shares have not done as well as health care stocks. The relationship between the CPI and gold’s price has been anything but stable or consistent over time, as you can see from the chart below. That’s another way of saying that sometimes gold greatly outpaces inflation and other times in which it significantly lags.<blockquote>你也不应该对金矿股的表现不如医疗保健股感到惊讶。从下图可以看出，随着时间的推移，CPI和黄金价格之间的关系一点也不稳定或一致。这是另一种说法，有时黄金大大超过通货膨胀，而其他时候则明显滞后。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f65b64d7e3a53ee5648945b538d54382\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"><blockquote></blockquote> You might be interested to know which industry historically has been the worst inflation hedge. The answer: candy; snacks and soda. The reason is that demand for the products sold by these companies are extremely price sensitive — just the opposite of health care services.<blockquote>你可能有兴趣知道哪个行业在历史上是最糟糕的通胀对冲。答案是：糖果；小吃和苏打水。原因是对这些公司销售的产品的需求对价格极其敏感——与医疗保健服务正好相反。</blockquote> What about the overall stock market, as represented by indices such as the S&amp;P 500? I focused on this index’s inflation-hedging abilities in&nbsp;a column several weeks ago, pointing out that most investors fail to appreciate that a stock market index fund is one of the best long-term inflation hedges available. Because of investors’ mistake, however, the broad stock market historically has been a poor inflation hedge over the shorter term of a year or two. It only becomes an excellent hedge when bought and held over periods of several decades.<blockquote>以标普500等指数为代表的整体股市呢？几周前，我在一篇专栏文章中重点讨论了该指数的通胀对冲能力，指出大多数投资者没有意识到股市指数基金是最好的长期通胀对冲工具之一。然而，由于投资者的错误，从历史上看，大盘股市在一两年的短期内对冲通胀的能力很差。只有在购买并持有数十年后，它才会成为绝佳的对冲工具。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-health-care-sector-not-gold-is-the-best-inflation-hedge-11615857353?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-health-care-sector-not-gold-is-the-best-inflation-hedge-11615857353?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1180610235","content_text":"Which industry historically has been the best inflation hedge? Most investors would say gold and gold mining. The correct answer is health care, according to study I conducted on the performance of 49 industry groups since 1926. I relied on data from Dartmouth College professor Ken French.\nConsider the extent to which changes in the Consumer Price Index over the trailing 24 months explain or predict contemporaneous changes in an index of health care stocks. (The statistic I calculated is known as the r-squared: A reading of 100% would mean that changes in the CPI explained and predicted all of the changes in the health care industry, while a reading of 0% would mean that the CPI had no explanatory power.) When focusing on all data since 1926, the r-squared is a statistically significant 23.2%. No other industry group comes close.\nGold is in second place, and its comparable r-squared is 13.6%. (I reached similar results when focusing on just the period since the early 1970s, which is when gold bullion ownership in the U.S. became legal.)\nYou shouldn’t be surprised that health care beats out other industries in hedging inflation. That’s because demand for health care is relatively immune from inflationary pressures. Except for the most elective of procedures you’re not likely to turn down medical care because of increasing price. Consider how fast the CPI for medical care has increased since the late 1940s (the earliest for which data are available): It has increased by a multiple of 40 over the ensuing seven decades. Over the same period, the regular CPI has increased by a factor of 12. (These rates of increase are equivalent to 5.1% and 3.4% on an annualized basis).\nNor should you be surprised that gold mining shares have not done as well as health care stocks. The relationship between the CPI and gold’s price has been anything but stable or consistent over time, as you can see from the chart below. That’s another way of saying that sometimes gold greatly outpaces inflation and other times in which it significantly lags.\n\nYou might be interested to know which industry historically has been the worst inflation hedge. The answer: candy; snacks and soda. The reason is that demand for the products sold by these companies are extremely price sensitive — just the opposite of health care services.\nWhat about the overall stock market, as represented by indices such as the S&P 500? I focused on this index’s inflation-hedging abilities in a column several weeks ago, pointing out that most investors fail to appreciate that a stock market index fund is one of the best long-term inflation hedges available. Because of investors’ mistake, however, the broad stock market historically has been a poor inflation hedge over the shorter term of a year or two. It only becomes an excellent hedge when bought and held over periods of several decades.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"GOLDmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/324330359"}