KCNG
2021-03-17
Yes
Why One Analyst Thinks Apple Shares Still Look Cheap<blockquote>为什么一位分析师认为苹果股价看起来仍然便宜</blockquote>
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But he thinks the concern is misplaced.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师指出，苹果股价在2020年表现强劲，上涨了81%，是标准普尔500指数回报率的五倍，引发了人们对该股2021年潜力的担忧，特别是在iPhone 12周期结束之际。但他认为这种担忧是错误的。</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani projects Apple can reach more than $7 a share in profits by the September 2025 fiscal year, up from a Wall Street analyst consensus view of $4.45 a share for fiscal 2021—driven by a combination of better monetization of the installed base with services and wearables, gross margin expansion, stock buybacks, and new products.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani预计，到2025年9月财年，苹果的每股利润将超过7美元，高于华尔街分析师普遍认为的2021财年每股4.45美元——这是由服务和可穿戴设备的安装基础更好货币化共同推动的、毛利率扩张、股票回购和新产品。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has a path to $100 billion in revenue from services by fiscal 2025, he argues, driving margin expansion and smoothing out the more cyclical hardware business.Apple had fiscal-2020 services revenue of about $54 billion.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，到2025财年，苹果的服务收入有望达到1000亿美元，从而推动利润率扩张并平滑周期性更强的硬件业务。苹果2020财年的服务收入约为540亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani thinks the wearables business can expand to $70 billion, up from $31 billion in fiscal 2020, given relatively low penetration of Apple Watch and AirPods among iPhone users.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani认为，鉴于苹果手表和AirPods在iPhone用户中的渗透率相对较低，可穿戴设备业务可以从2020财年的310亿美元扩大到700亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Evercore analyst sees four important potential new sources of growth in healthcare, advertising, cars, and augmented and virtual reality.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore分析师认为医疗保健、广告、汽车以及增强和虚拟现实领域有四个重要的潜在新增长来源。</blockquote></p><p> Not least, he thinks Apple will buy back close to $500 billion more of its stock through fiscal 2025—close to 25% of the company’s current market valuation. He notes that Apple has repurchased $253 billion of stock since it announced an intention to reach a net neutral cash position—about 94% of free cash flow. Given the company’s interest in reducing its cash position, he sees the pace of buybacks accelerating to 112% of free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，他认为苹果将在2025财年回购近5000亿美元的股票，接近该公司当前市场估值的25%。他指出，自宣布打算实现净中性现金头寸（约占自由现金流的94%）以来，苹果已回购了2530亿美元的股票。鉴于该公司有兴趣减少现金头寸，他预计回购步伐将加快至自由现金流的112%。</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani asserts that looking at historical valuations isn’t the best method for valuing Apple shares as the story shifts more to services and capital allocation. “While the rapid rerating has led to calls that Apple is overvalued, we think a multiple in the mid-to-high 30s will be the new normal as investors come to appreciate Apple’s ability to monetize its install base while continuing to release category-defining products and services,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani断言，随着故事更多地转向服务和资本配置，查看历史估值并不是评估苹果股票的最佳方法。“虽然快速重新评级导致评级认为苹果被高估，但我们认为，随着投资者开始欣赏苹果在继续发布类别的同时将其安装基础货币化的能力，30多岁的市盈率将成为新常态。定义产品和服务，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p> His view is that the stock should trade like a consumer-goods company—and that it makes more sense to value the business as a multiple of free cash flow rather than earnings. On that basis, Daryanani writes, the stock trades at a “notable discount” to both consumer-goods companies like Coca-Cola(KO) and PepsiCo(PEP), and luxury-goods companies like LVMH(MC.France),Hermès International(RMS.France), and Estee Lauder(EL). </p><p><blockquote>他的观点是，该股应该像消费品公司一样交易，并且将业务估值为自由现金流而不是收益的倍数更有意义。达里亚纳尼写道，在此基础上，该股的交易价格相对于可口可乐(KO)和百事可乐(PEP)等消费品公司以及路威酩轩集团(MC.France)、爱马仕国际(RMS.France)等奢侈品公司都有“显着折扣”。（RMS.France）和雅诗兰黛（EL）。</blockquote></p><p> Apple shares are up 1.3%, at $125.57, in recent trading. </p><p><blockquote>在最近的交易中，苹果股价上涨1.3%，至125.57美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why One Analyst Thinks Apple Shares Still Look Cheap<blockquote>为什么一位分析师认为苹果股价看起来仍然便宜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy One Analyst Thinks Apple Shares Still Look Cheap<blockquote>为什么一位分析师认为苹果股价看起来仍然便宜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-17 13:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple shares are getting a boost Tuesday from Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani, who repeated his Outperform rating on the stock while lifting his price target to $175 from $163.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani周二提振了苹果股价，他重申了对该股跑赢大盘的评级，同时将目标价从163美元上调至175美元。</blockquote></p><p> In an exhaustive 126-page report, Daryanani asserts that Apple (ticker: AAPL) “remains positioned to sustain mid-single digit sales and mid-teens total return over the next several years.”</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani在一份长达126页的详尽报告中断言，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）“仍有能力在未来几年维持中个位数的销售额和中位数的总回报率。”</blockquote></p><p> The analyst notes that Apple shares had a strong year in 2020, rallying 81%—five times the return of theS&P 500—creating concerns about the stock’s potential for 2021, in particular as the iPhone 12 cycle plays out. But he thinks the concern is misplaced.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师指出，苹果股价在2020年表现强劲，上涨了81%，是标准普尔500指数回报率的五倍，引发了人们对该股2021年潜力的担忧，特别是在iPhone 12周期结束之际。但他认为这种担忧是错误的。</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani projects Apple can reach more than $7 a share in profits by the September 2025 fiscal year, up from a Wall Street analyst consensus view of $4.45 a share for fiscal 2021—driven by a combination of better monetization of the installed base with services and wearables, gross margin expansion, stock buybacks, and new products.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani预计，到2025年9月财年，苹果的每股利润将超过7美元，高于华尔街分析师普遍认为的2021财年每股4.45美元——这是由服务和可穿戴设备的安装基础更好货币化共同推动的、毛利率扩张、股票回购和新产品。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has a path to $100 billion in revenue from services by fiscal 2025, he argues, driving margin expansion and smoothing out the more cyclical hardware business.Apple had fiscal-2020 services revenue of about $54 billion.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，到2025财年，苹果的服务收入有望达到1000亿美元，从而推动利润率扩张并平滑周期性更强的硬件业务。苹果2020财年的服务收入约为540亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani thinks the wearables business can expand to $70 billion, up from $31 billion in fiscal 2020, given relatively low penetration of Apple Watch and AirPods among iPhone users.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani认为，鉴于苹果手表和AirPods在iPhone用户中的渗透率相对较低，可穿戴设备业务可以从2020财年的310亿美元扩大到700亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Evercore analyst sees four important potential new sources of growth in healthcare, advertising, cars, and augmented and virtual reality.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore分析师认为医疗保健、广告、汽车以及增强和虚拟现实领域有四个重要的潜在新增长来源。</blockquote></p><p> Not least, he thinks Apple will buy back close to $500 billion more of its stock through fiscal 2025—close to 25% of the company’s current market valuation. He notes that Apple has repurchased $253 billion of stock since it announced an intention to reach a net neutral cash position—about 94% of free cash flow. Given the company’s interest in reducing its cash position, he sees the pace of buybacks accelerating to 112% of free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，他认为苹果将在2025财年回购近5000亿美元的股票，接近该公司当前市场估值的25%。他指出，自宣布打算实现净中性现金头寸（约占自由现金流的94%）以来，苹果已回购了2530亿美元的股票。鉴于该公司有兴趣减少现金头寸，他预计回购步伐将加快至自由现金流的112%。</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani asserts that looking at historical valuations isn’t the best method for valuing Apple shares as the story shifts more to services and capital allocation. “While the rapid rerating has led to calls that Apple is overvalued, we think a multiple in the mid-to-high 30s will be the new normal as investors come to appreciate Apple’s ability to monetize its install base while continuing to release category-defining products and services,” he writes.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani断言，随着故事更多地转向服务和资本配置，查看历史估值并不是评估苹果股票的最佳方法。“虽然快速重新评级导致评级认为苹果被高估，但我们认为，随着投资者开始欣赏苹果在继续发布类别的同时将其安装基础货币化的能力，30多岁的市盈率将成为新常态。定义产品和服务，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p> His view is that the stock should trade like a consumer-goods company—and that it makes more sense to value the business as a multiple of free cash flow rather than earnings. On that basis, Daryanani writes, the stock trades at a “notable discount” to both consumer-goods companies like Coca-Cola(KO) and PepsiCo(PEP), and luxury-goods companies like LVMH(MC.France),Hermès International(RMS.France), and Estee Lauder(EL). </p><p><blockquote>他的观点是，该股应该像消费品公司一样交易，并且将业务估值为自由现金流而不是收益的倍数更有意义。达里亚纳尼写道，在此基础上，该股的交易价格相对于可口可乐(KO)和百事可乐(PEP)等消费品公司以及路威酩轩集团(MC.France)、爱马仕国际(RMS.France)等奢侈品公司都有“显着折扣”。（RMS.France）和雅诗兰黛（EL）。</blockquote></p><p> Apple shares are up 1.3%, at $125.57, in recent trading. </p><p><blockquote>在最近的交易中，苹果股价上涨1.3%，至125.57美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-one-analyst-thinks-apple-shares-still-look-cheap-51615912098?mod=hp_DAY_14\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-one-analyst-thinks-apple-shares-still-look-cheap-51615912098?mod=hp_DAY_14","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128610365","content_text":"Apple shares are getting a boost Tuesday from Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani, who repeated his Outperform rating on the stock while lifting his price target to $175 from $163.\nIn an exhaustive 126-page report, Daryanani asserts that Apple (ticker: AAPL) “remains positioned to sustain mid-single digit sales and mid-teens total return over the next several years.”\nThe analyst notes that Apple shares had a strong year in 2020, rallying 81%—five times the return of theS&P 500—creating concerns about the stock’s potential for 2021, in particular as the iPhone 12 cycle plays out. But he thinks the concern is misplaced.\nDaryanani projects Apple can reach more than $7 a share in profits by the September 2025 fiscal year, up from a Wall Street analyst consensus view of $4.45 a share for fiscal 2021—driven by a combination of better monetization of the installed base with services and wearables, gross margin expansion, stock buybacks, and new products.\nApple has a path to $100 billion in revenue from services by fiscal 2025, he argues, driving margin expansion and smoothing out the more cyclical hardware business.Apple had fiscal-2020 services revenue of about $54 billion.\nDaryanani thinks the wearables business can expand to $70 billion, up from $31 billion in fiscal 2020, given relatively low penetration of Apple Watch and AirPods among iPhone users.\nThe Evercore analyst sees four important potential new sources of growth in healthcare, advertising, cars, and augmented and virtual reality.\nNot least, he thinks Apple will buy back close to $500 billion more of its stock through fiscal 2025—close to 25% of the company’s current market valuation. He notes that Apple has repurchased $253 billion of stock since it announced an intention to reach a net neutral cash position—about 94% of free cash flow. Given the company’s interest in reducing its cash position, he sees the pace of buybacks accelerating to 112% of free cash flow.\nDaryanani asserts that looking at historical valuations isn’t the best method for valuing Apple shares as the story shifts more to services and capital allocation. “While the rapid rerating has led to calls that Apple is overvalued, we think a multiple in the mid-to-high 30s will be the new normal as investors come to appreciate Apple’s ability to monetize its install base while continuing to release category-defining products and services,” he writes.\nHis view is that the stock should trade like a consumer-goods company—and that it makes more sense to value the business as a multiple of free cash flow rather than earnings. On that basis, Daryanani writes, the stock trades at a “notable discount” to both consumer-goods companies like Coca-Cola(KO) and PepsiCo(PEP), and luxury-goods companies like LVMH(MC.France),Hermès International(RMS.France), and Estee Lauder(EL). \nApple shares are up 1.3%, at $125.57, in recent trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/324399448"}
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