Crash and burn_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-03-17

Crash and burn

What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":324640640,"tweetId":"324640640","gmtCreate":1615991108080,"gmtModify":1703496083732,"author":{"id":3572665963519262,"idStr":"3572665963519262","authorId":3572665963519262,"authorIdStr":"3572665963519262","name":"WSS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98dcc1b399a8448c581410f2da052f7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Crash and burn</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Crash and burn</body></html>","text":"Crash and burn","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324640640","repostId":1139863038,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139863038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615985802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139863038?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 20:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139863038","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.The ra","content":"<ul><li>The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.</li><li>10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.</li><li>The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.</li></ul>Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows. &nbsp;We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.<blockquote><ul><li>十年期美国国债收益率为1.61%。</li><li>10年期优质公司债收益率2.09%。</li><li>30年期抵押贷款利率为3.05%。</li></ul>尽管最近有所上升，但利率仍徘徊在历史低点附近。我们不会轻易使用“历史性”这个词。我们所说的“历史性”是指自1776年美国诞生以来的最低水平。</blockquote>The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.<blockquote>下图由视觉资本家提供，强调了我们的观点。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a42c6bf59aeb11becd8e9ebc5ebcbdc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.<blockquote>尽管利率处于300年来的低点，但投资者正变得焦虑，因为利率正在上升。最近的历史表明他们应该担心。对过去40年的回顾表明，利率突然飙升和金融问题是齐头并进的。</blockquote>The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?<blockquote>所有投资者面临的问题是，在谚语再次击中风扇之前，峰值会有多大？</blockquote>Debt-Driven Economy<blockquote>债务驱动型经济</blockquote>Over the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.<blockquote>在过去的40年里，债务越来越多地推动了经济增长。</blockquote>That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.<blockquote>这种说法本身并没有告诉我们任何关于经济健康状况的信息。为了更好地量化债务的好处或后果，我们需要了解它是如何被使用的。</blockquote>When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.<blockquote>当债务得到有效利用时，利息和本金就会被更高的利润和持续的经济活动所覆盖。更好的是，超过债务成本的收入使国家更加繁荣。</blockquote>Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.<blockquote>相反，非生产性债务可能会为经济活动提供一次性火花，但它几乎不会产生甚至没有剩余收入来为未来服务。最终，它会造成经济阻力，因为未来的偿债取代了生产性投资和/或消费。</blockquote>The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.<blockquote>下图显示了未偿债务总额与GDP的比率稳步上升。如果债务总体上是生产性的，那么无论债务金额多少，该比率都会下降。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94098681db0a5b7f7f636d502f8bb5b1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>U.S. Economic Fragility<blockquote>美国经济脆弱性</blockquote>As shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.<blockquote>如上所示，美国经济过度依赖非生产性债务。毫不奇怪，三十年来，长期增长率一直呈下降趋势。去年增加的大量不良债务只会进一步降低未来的增长率。</blockquote>The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.<blockquote>美联储敏锐地意识到这一弱点，但拒绝承认问题或激励生产性债务。相反，他们以极低的利率吹捧更多债务的暂时经济效益。这样做，他们助长了投机和消费，而不是生产性债务。</blockquote>In&nbsp;Wicksell’s Elegant Model&nbsp;we stated:&nbsp;“On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”<blockquote>在Wicksell的优雅模型中，我们指出：“另一方面，如果市场利率异常地保持在自然利率以下，那么资本配置决策就不是基于边际效率而是根据投资资本的平均回报率来做出的。这就解释了为什么在那些时期，股票和房地产等投机性资产会蓬勃发展。”</blockquote>“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”<blockquote>“但当短期市场利率低于自然利率时，聪明的投资者会做出适当的反应。他们以低利率大量借贷，购买回报可预测、期限较短的现有资产。金融资产价值飙升，而长期、现金流驱动、风险较高的投资则萎靡不振。”</blockquote>Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.<blockquote>简单地说，美联储的政策是让派对继续进行，而不用担心明天的宿醉。正如他们所展示的，狗的毛发——更多的债务——有助于明天的派对继续进行。不幸的是，这种鲁莽政策的代价是国家的财政脆弱性。</blockquote>Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.<blockquote>这种情况的证据非常明显。目前，投资者对利率上升感到担忧，尽管利率仅升至过去300年来的最低水平。</blockquote>Measuring Fragility<blockquote>测量脆性</blockquote>Looking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.<blockquote>回顾过去的40年，揭示了一个令人不安的问题。每当利率达到下降趋势的上限时，就会发生某种金融危机。下图显示了利率和GDP的稳步下降，以及利率暂时上升时发生的各种危机。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3e6cab01875fa2adb0d0b76e8921c2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.<blockquote>鉴于利率急剧上升时经常发生危机，我们应该考虑在下一次危机之前利率可以上升到多高请注意，随着时间的推移，产生问题的速率增加越来越少。如前所述，原因是债务的增长超过了偿还能力。</blockquote>To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.<blockquote>为了量化利率还能上升多少，我们展示了下图。图表中的红色阴影区域是所有债务利息支出变化的代理计算。我们使用未偿债务、一年期利率变化和GDP来计算变化。我们将数据归一化到经济规模。</blockquote>The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.<blockquote>目前代理利息支出的一年变化比一年前增长了3.50%。如图所示，最近两次重大危机（2000年和2008年）以及一些小危机都发生在代理指数上涨3%到4%的时候。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a7414aad88e5ed6269e7910d64ee0c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.<blockquote>如果10年期UST收益率到5月份升至2.0%（目前为1.60%），该指标将升至5.25%，远高于互联网和房地产泡沫破裂时的4.0%。</blockquote>Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote>The proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.<blockquote>代理利息支出模型远非完美，但它提供了承受更高利率的痛苦阈值很小的证据。</blockquote>If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.&nbsp; However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.<blockquote>如果10年期UST利率到4月份升至1.75%，代理利息支出将超过1990年以来的所有峰值水平。然而，这一次，大规模的财政刺激、货币操作和经济重新开放可能会暂时掩盖利率的上升，使其进一步上升。</blockquote>Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.<blockquote>就像其他时候利率上升“太多”一样，如果利率继续上升，就会发生危机。似乎唯一的问题是美联储何时会像往常一样出手救援。</blockquote>Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.<blockquote>系好安全带，数学表明危机可能比任何人想象的都要近。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-03-17 20:56\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul><li>The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.</li><li>10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.</li><li>The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.</li></ul>Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows. &nbsp;We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.<blockquote><ul><li>十年期美国国债收益率为1.61%。</li><li>10年期优质公司债收益率2.09%。</li><li>30年期抵押贷款利率为3.05%。</li></ul>尽管最近有所上升，但利率仍徘徊在历史低点附近。我们不会轻易使用“历史性”这个词。我们所说的“历史性”是指自1776年美国诞生以来的最低水平。</blockquote>The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.<blockquote>下图由视觉资本家提供，强调了我们的观点。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a42c6bf59aeb11becd8e9ebc5ebcbdc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.<blockquote>尽管利率处于300年来的低点，但投资者正变得焦虑，因为利率正在上升。最近的历史表明他们应该担心。对过去40年的回顾表明，利率突然飙升和金融问题是齐头并进的。</blockquote>The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?<blockquote>所有投资者面临的问题是，在谚语再次击中风扇之前，峰值会有多大？</blockquote>Debt-Driven Economy<blockquote>债务驱动型经济</blockquote>Over the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.<blockquote>在过去的40年里，债务越来越多地推动了经济增长。</blockquote>That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.<blockquote>这种说法本身并没有告诉我们任何关于经济健康状况的信息。为了更好地量化债务的好处或后果，我们需要了解它是如何被使用的。</blockquote>When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.<blockquote>当债务得到有效利用时，利息和本金就会被更高的利润和持续的经济活动所覆盖。更好的是，超过债务成本的收入使国家更加繁荣。</blockquote>Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.<blockquote>相反，非生产性债务可能会为经济活动提供一次性火花，但它几乎不会产生甚至没有剩余收入来为未来服务。最终，它会造成经济阻力，因为未来的偿债取代了生产性投资和/或消费。</blockquote>The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.<blockquote>下图显示了未偿债务总额与GDP的比率稳步上升。如果债务总体上是生产性的，那么无论债务金额多少，该比率都会下降。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94098681db0a5b7f7f636d502f8bb5b1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>U.S. Economic Fragility<blockquote>美国经济脆弱性</blockquote>As shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.<blockquote>如上所示，美国经济过度依赖非生产性债务。毫不奇怪，三十年来，长期增长率一直呈下降趋势。去年增加的大量不良债务只会进一步降低未来的增长率。</blockquote>The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.<blockquote>美联储敏锐地意识到这一弱点，但拒绝承认问题或激励生产性债务。相反，他们以极低的利率吹捧更多债务的暂时经济效益。这样做，他们助长了投机和消费，而不是生产性债务。</blockquote>In&nbsp;Wicksell’s Elegant Model&nbsp;we stated:&nbsp;“On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”<blockquote>在Wicksell的优雅模型中，我们指出：“另一方面，如果市场利率异常地保持在自然利率以下，那么资本配置决策就不是基于边际效率而是根据投资资本的平均回报率来做出的。这就解释了为什么在那些时期，股票和房地产等投机性资产会蓬勃发展。”</blockquote>“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”<blockquote>“但当短期市场利率低于自然利率时，聪明的投资者会做出适当的反应。他们以低利率大量借贷，购买回报可预测、期限较短的现有资产。金融资产价值飙升，而长期、现金流驱动、风险较高的投资则萎靡不振。”</blockquote>Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.<blockquote>简单地说，美联储的政策是让派对继续进行，而不用担心明天的宿醉。正如他们所展示的，狗的毛发——更多的债务——有助于明天的派对继续进行。不幸的是，这种鲁莽政策的代价是国家的财政脆弱性。</blockquote>Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.<blockquote>这种情况的证据非常明显。目前，投资者对利率上升感到担忧，尽管利率仅升至过去300年来的最低水平。</blockquote>Measuring Fragility<blockquote>测量脆性</blockquote>Looking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.<blockquote>回顾过去的40年，揭示了一个令人不安的问题。每当利率达到下降趋势的上限时，就会发生某种金融危机。下图显示了利率和GDP的稳步下降，以及利率暂时上升时发生的各种危机。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3e6cab01875fa2adb0d0b76e8921c2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.<blockquote>鉴于利率急剧上升时经常发生危机，我们应该考虑在下一次危机之前利率可以上升到多高请注意，随着时间的推移，产生问题的速率增加越来越少。如前所述，原因是债务的增长超过了偿还能力。</blockquote>To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.<blockquote>为了量化利率还能上升多少，我们展示了下图。图表中的红色阴影区域是所有债务利息支出变化的代理计算。我们使用未偿债务、一年期利率变化和GDP来计算变化。我们将数据归一化到经济规模。</blockquote>The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.<blockquote>目前代理利息支出的一年变化比一年前增长了3.50%。如图所示，最近两次重大危机（2000年和2008年）以及一些小危机都发生在代理指数上涨3%到4%的时候。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a7414aad88e5ed6269e7910d64ee0c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote>If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.<blockquote>如果10年期UST收益率到5月份升至2.0%（目前为1.60%），该指标将升至5.25%，远高于互联网和房地产泡沫破裂时的4.0%。</blockquote>Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote>The proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.<blockquote>代理利息支出模型远非完美，但它提供了承受更高利率的痛苦阈值很小的证据。</blockquote>If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.&nbsp; However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.<blockquote>如果10年期UST利率到4月份升至1.75%，代理利息支出将超过1990年以来的所有峰值水平。然而，这一次，大规模的财政刺激、货币操作和经济重新开放可能会暂时掩盖利率的上升，使其进一步上升。</blockquote>Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.<blockquote>就像其他时候利率上升“太多”一样，如果利率继续上升，就会发生危机。似乎唯一的问题是美联储何时会像往常一样出手救援。</blockquote>Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.<blockquote>系好安全带，数学表明危机可能比任何人想象的都要近。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-interest-rate-triggers-next-crisis?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-interest-rate-triggers-next-crisis?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139863038","content_text":"The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows.  We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?Debt-Driven EconomyOver the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.U.S. Economic FragilityAs shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.In Wicksell’s Elegant Model we stated: “On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.Measuring FragilityLooking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.SummaryThe proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.  However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1374,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/324640640"}