egp
2021-03-17
Moon
Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>轻松赚钱、点阵图和美联储的困境： 重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
2
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":324991473,"tweetId":"324991473","gmtCreate":1615948985892,"gmtModify":1703495411775,"author":{"id":3578401675475466,"idStr":"3578401675475466","authorId":3578401675475466,"authorIdStr":"3578401675475466","name":"egp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2097a2bb202d6059687baec5a24ee8","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Moon</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Moon</p></body></html>","text":"Moon","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324991473","repostId":1103121082,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103121082","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615948559,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1103121082?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 10:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>轻松赚钱、点阵图和美联储的困境： 重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103121082","media":"Barrons","summary":"The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter ec","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking about” lifting interest rates—and that it doesn’t need to.</p><p><blockquote>美联储本周采取了一个尴尬的平衡行动：它很可能会立即发布更乐观的经济预测，同时试图向投资者保证，美联储仍然 “没有考虑 ”加息，而且也不需要加息。</blockquote></p><p> More-optimistic estimates for gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation would typically prompt an acknowledgement that monetary policy would, in turn, begin to tighten. For a data-dependent Fed, the message that the economy is improving much faster than expected is at odds with the message that rates will remain near zero through 2023. How the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy arm, tries to square those conflicting dynamics will be in focus as investors take in new economic forecasts, the dot plot showing updated rate predictions, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.</p><p><blockquote>对国内生产总值、失业率和通货膨胀的更乐观的估计通常会促使人们承认货币政策将反过来开始收紧。对于依赖数据的美联储来说，经济改善速度远超预期的信息与利率将在 2023 年之前保持接近于零的信息不一致。随着投资者对新的经济预测、显示最新利率预测的点阵图以及主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的新闻发布会的关注，美联储的政策机构联邦公开市场委员会将如何试图平衡这些相互矛盾的动态。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a fine line for them to walk,” says Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, as the bond market prices in more tightening amid improving economic data, Covid-19 vaccinations, and building inflation concerns, while the Fed reiterates its dovish stance. “How do you telegraph patience while conveying you won’t be behind the curve?”</p><p><blockquote>“牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）首席美国金融经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”这对他们来说是一条微妙的路线，因为在经济数据改善、Covid-19 疫苗接种和通胀担忧加剧的情况下，债券市场价格进一步收紧，而美联储则重申了其鸽派立场。“你如何在传达你不会落后于时代的同时传达耐心？”</blockquote></p><p> The rate decision and updated materials will be released this Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell’s question-and-answer session following. Here is a run down of what Wall Street is watching.</p><p><blockquote>费率决定和更新材料将于本周三下午2点发布东部时间，鲍威尔将进行问答环节。以下是华尔街正在关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Updated economic forecasts:</b>In the December Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC projected 4.2% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, bringing its inflation expectation to 2% by the end of 2023 and thus implying rates would begin to rise in 2024.</p><p><blockquote><b>更新的经济预测：</b>在 12 月份的经济预测摘要中，FOMC 预计 2021 年 GDP 增长率为 4.2%，2022 年为 3.2%，到 2023 年底通胀预期将达到 2%，从而意味着利率将在 2024 年开始上升。</blockquote></p><p> Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, thinks the FOMC will raise GDP forecasts for the next two years to about 6% and 4%, respectively. This should push the unemployment rate below the natural rate (the lowest unemployment rate an economy can sustain with inflation remaining stable) by the second half of 2022, she says, meaning the 2% inflation forecast would be pulled forward to the end of 2022—and the first rate hike therefore pulled forward to 2023. (In December, the Fed projected inflation at a 1.8% rate at the end of this year.)</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies首席经济学家Aneta Markowska认为，FOMC将把未来两年的GDP预测分别上调至6%和4%左右。她表示，到 2022 年下半年，这应该会将失业率推至自然率以下（在通胀保持稳定的情况下，一个经济体可以维持的最低失业率），这意味着 2% 的通胀预测将被提前至 2022 年底——因此，第一次加息被提前至 2023 年。（12月，美联储预计今年年底通胀率为1.8%。）</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials have expressed comfort in letting inflation run hotter than the 2% target. The question is by how much. Even though the FOMC will likely repeat that the recovery will slow after this year, new forecasts may show inflation of over 2% in both 2022 and 2023 alongside an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2023, thereby meeting the Fed’s criteria of inflation above 2% and “maximum employment,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员对让通胀率高于 2% 的目标表示欣慰。问题是多少。摩根大通基金（J.P. Morgan Funds）首席全球策略师大卫-凯利（David Kelly）表示，尽管联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）可能会重申今年之后经济复苏将放缓，但新的预测可能会显示，2022 年和 2023 年的通胀率都将超过 2%，到 2023 年底失业率将达到 3.5%，从而满足美联储关于通胀率高于 2% 和 “最大就业 ”的标准。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists, however, say the Fed may focus more on a broader unemployment rate, known as the U-6 rate, that includes discouraged workers plus those who are working part time but would prefer to work full time, among others. That would give policy makers more breathing room given how much higher U-6 stands (11.1%) compared with the “official” U-3 rate (6.2%).</p><p><blockquote>然而，一些经济学家表示，美联储可能会更多地关注更广泛的失业率，即所谓的U-6失业率，其中包括沮丧的工人以及那些从事兼职工作但更愿意全职工作的工人等。鉴于 U-6 的比率（11.1%）远高于 “官方 ”U-3 的比率（6.2%），这将给政策制定者更多的喘息空间。</blockquote></p><p> Given the Fed’s new policy framework defines maximum employment as consisting of ‘broad-based and inclusive’ employment, investors looking to handicap the Fed’s next rate move should monitor the U-6 unemployment rate, says Bostjancic of Oxford Economics.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）的博斯特扬西奇（Bostjancic）表示，鉴于美联储的新政策框架将最大就业定义为 “基础广泛、包容性 ”就业，希望阻碍美联储下一次利率走势的投资者应关注 U-6 失业率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The dot plot:</b>In December, only one of 17 FOMC members submitting forecasts saw a rate hike by the end of 2022 and five saw a rate hike by the end of 2023. While some economists say Fed officials may be wary of lifting their dots, or appearing more hawkish and thereby adding fuel to a surge in long-term interest rates that has been under way, others say the Fed has to show some change in its rate outlook.</p><p><blockquote><b>点阵图：</b>12 月，提交预测的 17 名 FOMC 成员中只有 1 名成员预计到 2022 年底加息，5 名成员预计到 2023 年底加息。尽管一些经济学家表示，美联储官员可能对提高他们的点数或显得更加鹰派持谨慎态度，从而加剧正在进行的长期利率飙升，但其他人表示，美联储必须在其利率前景中表现出一些变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the magnitude of the likely forecast revisions, it would be hard to justify no change in the policy outlook,” says Markowska. “Not doing so would be inconsistent with data-dependency and would strongly suggest that the Fed is calendar dependent (which the Fed insists it isn’t).” At the same time, she says, the Fed hasn’t pushed back against the recent repricing of rate expectations, which is an implicit endorsement of what’s already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>“马尔科夫斯卡说：”鉴于预测可能修正的幅度，很难证明政策前景不改变是合理的。“不这样做将不符合数据依赖性，并将强烈表明美联储依赖于日历（美联储坚称它不是）。”她说，与此同时，美联储并没有反击最近对利率预期的重新定价，这是对已经定价的隐性认可。</blockquote></p><p> Bostjancic expects the median forecast to show at least one 0.25% rate hike during 2023, while Markowska thinks the median 2023 dot could rise to 0.375% (she notes only 4 members need to lift their dots—or signal a higher expected Fed funds rate by the end of 2023—to move the median rate projection. The bond market has priced in three quarter-point increases by the end of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Bostjancic 预计预测中值将显示 2023 年至少加息一次 0.25%，而 Markowska 则认为 2023 年 dot 中值可能会升至 0.375%（她指出，只有 4 名成员需要提高 dot，或在 2023 年底前发出更高预期联邦基金利率的信号），即可移动利率预测中值。债券市场已预计到 2023 年底将加息三个四分之一点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Bond market action:</b>How the Treasury market reacts to the new Fed information will be at least as interesting as the information itself. Instead of the Fed potentially catching up to where the market already is in terms of rate expectations, Bostjancic says even a whiff of the Fed pulling forward rate hike expectations could spur the bond market to price in more tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>债券市场行动：</b>国债市场对美联储新信息的反应至少与信息本身一样有趣。Bostjancic表示，即使美联储稍微提前加息预期，也可能刺激债券市场消化更多紧缩政策，而不是美联储在利率预期方面可能赶上市场已经处于的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Ian Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital, says chances are low Powell will meaningfully alter his stance on the recent yield action, maintaining that as long as the move is driven by an improving economic outlook and inflation expectations, the repricing is for the right reasons. “Needless to say, higher yields are good until they are not and it’s just such an inflection point that represents the more significant policy risk for the Fed,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>BMO Capital 利率策略主管伊恩·林根 (Ian Lyngen) 表示，鲍威尔不太可能有意义地改变他对最近收益率行动的立场，他坚持认为，只要此举是由经济前景和通胀预期改善推动的，重新定价就是出于正确的原因。“他说：”不用说，更高的收益率是好事，直到它们不好，而这正是美联储面临的更大政策风险的拐点。</blockquote></p><p> Lyngen is watching the 1.64% level on the 10-year (it was last week’s yield peak as well as the highest for the benchmark since early-February 2020) and has a 1.75% target on the note.</p><p><blockquote>林根正在关注 10 年期国债 1.64% 的水平（这是上周的收益率峰值，也是该基准自 2020 年 2 月初以来的最高收益率），并将该票据的目标定为 1.75%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SLR exemption extension:</b>Potentially contributing to bond market action on Wednesday will be any signal around the Fed’s plan for a popular program launched last April, as pandemic-driven shutdowns cascaded.</p><p><blockquote><b>SLR豁免延期：</b>随着大流行病导致的停摆接踵而至，围绕美联储去年 4 月推出的一项广受欢迎的计划的任何信号都可能导致周三债券市场的走势。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is hoping for an extension of a temporary exemption of Treasuries and bank deposits at the Fed Reserve Banks from the banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which requires financial institutions hold a minimum ratio of at least 3% in capital measured against their total leverage exposure. The exemption is set to expire at the end of March.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街希望延长美联储银行对国债和银行存款的临时豁免期限，该期限要求金融机构持有至少 3% 的最低资本比率，以其总杠杆敞口衡量。该豁免将于三月底到期。</blockquote></p><p> The exemption’s fate has big implications. Over the past year, banks have increased their purchases of Treasuries by a large $854 billion, while bank reserves have ballooned by $1.8 trillion, Bostjancic notes. Economists say the lack of an extension could significantly lessen banks’ appetite for Treasuries, putting even more upward pressure on yields.</p><p><blockquote>豁免的命运影响重大。Bostjancic 指出，过去一年，银行增加了 8,540 亿美元的国债购买量，而银行准备金则激增了 1.8 万亿美元。经济学家表示，缺乏延期可能会大大降低银行对美国国债的兴趣，从而给收益率带来更大的上行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Further easing watch:</b>Wall Street generally doesn’t expect more easing unless yields stage a more disorderly surge and financial conditions meaningfully tighten. For now, the FOMC “is reasonably well positioned to stay the course for the time being,” Lyngen says, “even if such an outcome involves the risk of tacitly endorsing a further Treasury selloff at stage when investors are wary, if not worried.”</p><p><blockquote><b>进一步放松观察：</b>除非收益率出现更无序的飙升，金融状况有意义地收紧，否则华尔街普遍预计不会出现更多宽松政策。林根说，就目前而言，联邦公开市场委员会 “处于相当有利的位置，可以暂时坚持到底”，“即使这样的结果涉及在投资者谨慎甚至担忧的情况下，默许进一步抛售美国国债的风险”。</blockquote></p><p> As for potential responses to any disorderly jump in yields, economists say the Fed has a few options. Most immediately, the Fed could opt to lengthen the duration of its current asset purchases, says Bostjancic. As of December, the average maturity under the current program was 7.4 years, she says, adding that policy makers could start buying 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Doing so would effectively be one part of a new “operation twist,” with the other leg involving the sale of short-date Treasury bills, Bostjancic says.</p><p><blockquote>至于对收益率无序飙升的潜在反应，经济学家表示，美联储有几个选择。Bostjancic 表示，最直接的是，美联储可能会选择延长当前资产购买的期限。她表示，截至 12 月，当前计划的平均期限为 7.4 年，并补充说政策制定者可以开始购买 10 至 30 年期国债。Bostjancic 说，这样做实际上将是新的 “扭曲行动 ”的一部分，另一部分涉及出售短期国库券。</blockquote></p><p> If financial conditions tighten much more sharply and buying further out on the yield curve proves insufficient, Bostjancic and others say the Fed could attempt yield curve control.</p><p><blockquote>Bostjancic和其他人表示，如果金融状况进一步收紧，并且在收益率曲线上进一步买入被证明是不够的，美联储可能会尝试控制收益率曲线。</blockquote></p><p> YCC, undertaken by the Fed after World War II, the Bank of Japan in 2016, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2020, aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve, targeting longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities.As economists at the St. Louis Fed put it, because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities: if bond prices (yields) of targeted maturities remain above (below) the floor, the central bank does nothing. But if prices fall (rise) below (above) the floor, the central bank buys targeted-maturity bonds—increasing the demand and thus the price of those bonds.</p><p><blockquote>YCC由美联储在二战后、日本央行在2016年和澳大利亚储备银行在2020年实施，旨在控制收益率曲线的某些部分的利率，通过对特定期限施加利率上限来直接瞄准长期利率。正如圣路易斯联储的经济学家所说，由于债券价格和收益率成反比关系，这也意味着目标期限的价格下限：如果目标期限的债券价格（收益率）保持在下限之上（低于），央行什么也不做。但如果价格跌至（上涨）下限以下（高于），央行就会购买目标期限债券——增加需求，从而提高这些债券的价格。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>轻松赚钱、点阵图和美联储的困境： 重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEasy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>轻松赚钱、点阵图和美联储的困境： 重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-17 10:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking about” lifting interest rates—and that it doesn’t need to.</p><p><blockquote>美联储本周采取了一个尴尬的平衡行动：它很可能会立即发布更乐观的经济预测，同时试图向投资者保证，美联储仍然 “没有考虑 ”加息，而且也不需要加息。</blockquote></p><p> More-optimistic estimates for gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation would typically prompt an acknowledgement that monetary policy would, in turn, begin to tighten. For a data-dependent Fed, the message that the economy is improving much faster than expected is at odds with the message that rates will remain near zero through 2023. How the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy arm, tries to square those conflicting dynamics will be in focus as investors take in new economic forecasts, the dot plot showing updated rate predictions, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.</p><p><blockquote>对国内生产总值、失业率和通货膨胀的更乐观的估计通常会促使人们承认货币政策将反过来开始收紧。对于依赖数据的美联储来说，经济改善速度远超预期的信息与利率将在 2023 年之前保持接近于零的信息不一致。随着投资者对新的经济预测、显示最新利率预测的点阵图以及主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的新闻发布会的关注，美联储的政策机构联邦公开市场委员会将如何试图平衡这些相互矛盾的动态。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a fine line for them to walk,” says Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, as the bond market prices in more tightening amid improving economic data, Covid-19 vaccinations, and building inflation concerns, while the Fed reiterates its dovish stance. “How do you telegraph patience while conveying you won’t be behind the curve?”</p><p><blockquote>“牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）首席美国金融经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”这对他们来说是一条微妙的路线，因为在经济数据改善、Covid-19 疫苗接种和通胀担忧加剧的情况下，债券市场价格进一步收紧，而美联储则重申了其鸽派立场。“你如何在传达你不会落后于时代的同时传达耐心？”</blockquote></p><p> The rate decision and updated materials will be released this Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell’s question-and-answer session following. Here is a run down of what Wall Street is watching.</p><p><blockquote>费率决定和更新材料将于本周三下午2点发布东部时间，鲍威尔将进行问答环节。以下是华尔街正在关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Updated economic forecasts:</b>In the December Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC projected 4.2% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, bringing its inflation expectation to 2% by the end of 2023 and thus implying rates would begin to rise in 2024.</p><p><blockquote><b>更新的经济预测：</b>在 12 月份的经济预测摘要中，FOMC 预计 2021 年 GDP 增长率为 4.2%，2022 年为 3.2%，到 2023 年底通胀预期将达到 2%，从而意味着利率将在 2024 年开始上升。</blockquote></p><p> Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, thinks the FOMC will raise GDP forecasts for the next two years to about 6% and 4%, respectively. This should push the unemployment rate below the natural rate (the lowest unemployment rate an economy can sustain with inflation remaining stable) by the second half of 2022, she says, meaning the 2% inflation forecast would be pulled forward to the end of 2022—and the first rate hike therefore pulled forward to 2023. (In December, the Fed projected inflation at a 1.8% rate at the end of this year.)</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies首席经济学家Aneta Markowska认为，FOMC将把未来两年的GDP预测分别上调至6%和4%左右。她表示，到 2022 年下半年，这应该会将失业率推至自然率以下（在通胀保持稳定的情况下，一个经济体可以维持的最低失业率），这意味着 2% 的通胀预测将被提前至 2022 年底——因此，第一次加息被提前至 2023 年。（12月，美联储预计今年年底通胀率为1.8%。）</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials have expressed comfort in letting inflation run hotter than the 2% target. The question is by how much. Even though the FOMC will likely repeat that the recovery will slow after this year, new forecasts may show inflation of over 2% in both 2022 and 2023 alongside an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2023, thereby meeting the Fed’s criteria of inflation above 2% and “maximum employment,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员对让通胀率高于 2% 的目标表示欣慰。问题是多少。摩根大通基金（J.P. Morgan Funds）首席全球策略师大卫-凯利（David Kelly）表示，尽管联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）可能会重申今年之后经济复苏将放缓，但新的预测可能会显示，2022 年和 2023 年的通胀率都将超过 2%，到 2023 年底失业率将达到 3.5%，从而满足美联储关于通胀率高于 2% 和 “最大就业 ”的标准。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists, however, say the Fed may focus more on a broader unemployment rate, known as the U-6 rate, that includes discouraged workers plus those who are working part time but would prefer to work full time, among others. That would give policy makers more breathing room given how much higher U-6 stands (11.1%) compared with the “official” U-3 rate (6.2%).</p><p><blockquote>然而，一些经济学家表示，美联储可能会更多地关注更广泛的失业率，即所谓的U-6失业率，其中包括沮丧的工人以及那些从事兼职工作但更愿意全职工作的工人等。鉴于 U-6 的比率（11.1%）远高于 “官方 ”U-3 的比率（6.2%），这将给政策制定者更多的喘息空间。</blockquote></p><p> Given the Fed’s new policy framework defines maximum employment as consisting of ‘broad-based and inclusive’ employment, investors looking to handicap the Fed’s next rate move should monitor the U-6 unemployment rate, says Bostjancic of Oxford Economics.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）的博斯特扬西奇（Bostjancic）表示，鉴于美联储的新政策框架将最大就业定义为 “基础广泛、包容性 ”就业，希望阻碍美联储下一次利率走势的投资者应关注 U-6 失业率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The dot plot:</b>In December, only one of 17 FOMC members submitting forecasts saw a rate hike by the end of 2022 and five saw a rate hike by the end of 2023. While some economists say Fed officials may be wary of lifting their dots, or appearing more hawkish and thereby adding fuel to a surge in long-term interest rates that has been under way, others say the Fed has to show some change in its rate outlook.</p><p><blockquote><b>点阵图：</b>12 月，提交预测的 17 名 FOMC 成员中只有 1 名成员预计到 2022 年底加息，5 名成员预计到 2023 年底加息。尽管一些经济学家表示，美联储官员可能对提高他们的点数或显得更加鹰派持谨慎态度，从而加剧正在进行的长期利率飙升，但其他人表示，美联储必须在其利率前景中表现出一些变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the magnitude of the likely forecast revisions, it would be hard to justify no change in the policy outlook,” says Markowska. “Not doing so would be inconsistent with data-dependency and would strongly suggest that the Fed is calendar dependent (which the Fed insists it isn’t).” At the same time, she says, the Fed hasn’t pushed back against the recent repricing of rate expectations, which is an implicit endorsement of what’s already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>“马尔科夫斯卡说：”鉴于预测可能修正的幅度，很难证明政策前景不改变是合理的。“不这样做将不符合数据依赖性，并将强烈表明美联储依赖于日历（美联储坚称它不是）。”她说，与此同时，美联储并没有反击最近对利率预期的重新定价，这是对已经定价的隐性认可。</blockquote></p><p> Bostjancic expects the median forecast to show at least one 0.25% rate hike during 2023, while Markowska thinks the median 2023 dot could rise to 0.375% (she notes only 4 members need to lift their dots—or signal a higher expected Fed funds rate by the end of 2023—to move the median rate projection. The bond market has priced in three quarter-point increases by the end of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Bostjancic 预计预测中值将显示 2023 年至少加息一次 0.25%，而 Markowska 则认为 2023 年 dot 中值可能会升至 0.375%（她指出，只有 4 名成员需要提高 dot，或在 2023 年底前发出更高预期联邦基金利率的信号），即可移动利率预测中值。债券市场已预计到 2023 年底将加息三个四分之一点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Bond market action:</b>How the Treasury market reacts to the new Fed information will be at least as interesting as the information itself. Instead of the Fed potentially catching up to where the market already is in terms of rate expectations, Bostjancic says even a whiff of the Fed pulling forward rate hike expectations could spur the bond market to price in more tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>债券市场行动：</b>国债市场对美联储新信息的反应至少与信息本身一样有趣。Bostjancic表示，即使美联储稍微提前加息预期，也可能刺激债券市场消化更多紧缩政策，而不是美联储在利率预期方面可能赶上市场已经处于的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Ian Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital, says chances are low Powell will meaningfully alter his stance on the recent yield action, maintaining that as long as the move is driven by an improving economic outlook and inflation expectations, the repricing is for the right reasons. “Needless to say, higher yields are good until they are not and it’s just such an inflection point that represents the more significant policy risk for the Fed,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>BMO Capital 利率策略主管伊恩·林根 (Ian Lyngen) 表示，鲍威尔不太可能有意义地改变他对最近收益率行动的立场，他坚持认为，只要此举是由经济前景和通胀预期改善推动的，重新定价就是出于正确的原因。“他说：”不用说，更高的收益率是好事，直到它们不好，而这正是美联储面临的更大政策风险的拐点。</blockquote></p><p> Lyngen is watching the 1.64% level on the 10-year (it was last week’s yield peak as well as the highest for the benchmark since early-February 2020) and has a 1.75% target on the note.</p><p><blockquote>林根正在关注 10 年期国债 1.64% 的水平（这是上周的收益率峰值，也是该基准自 2020 年 2 月初以来的最高收益率），并将该票据的目标定为 1.75%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SLR exemption extension:</b>Potentially contributing to bond market action on Wednesday will be any signal around the Fed’s plan for a popular program launched last April, as pandemic-driven shutdowns cascaded.</p><p><blockquote><b>SLR豁免延期：</b>随着大流行病导致的停摆接踵而至，围绕美联储去年 4 月推出的一项广受欢迎的计划的任何信号都可能导致周三债券市场的走势。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is hoping for an extension of a temporary exemption of Treasuries and bank deposits at the Fed Reserve Banks from the banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which requires financial institutions hold a minimum ratio of at least 3% in capital measured against their total leverage exposure. The exemption is set to expire at the end of March.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街希望延长美联储银行对国债和银行存款的临时豁免期限，该期限要求金融机构持有至少 3% 的最低资本比率，以其总杠杆敞口衡量。该豁免将于三月底到期。</blockquote></p><p> The exemption’s fate has big implications. Over the past year, banks have increased their purchases of Treasuries by a large $854 billion, while bank reserves have ballooned by $1.8 trillion, Bostjancic notes. Economists say the lack of an extension could significantly lessen banks’ appetite for Treasuries, putting even more upward pressure on yields.</p><p><blockquote>豁免的命运影响重大。Bostjancic 指出，过去一年，银行增加了 8,540 亿美元的国债购买量，而银行准备金则激增了 1.8 万亿美元。经济学家表示，缺乏延期可能会大大降低银行对美国国债的兴趣，从而给收益率带来更大的上行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Further easing watch:</b>Wall Street generally doesn’t expect more easing unless yields stage a more disorderly surge and financial conditions meaningfully tighten. For now, the FOMC “is reasonably well positioned to stay the course for the time being,” Lyngen says, “even if such an outcome involves the risk of tacitly endorsing a further Treasury selloff at stage when investors are wary, if not worried.”</p><p><blockquote><b>进一步放松观察：</b>除非收益率出现更无序的飙升，金融状况有意义地收紧，否则华尔街普遍预计不会出现更多宽松政策。林根说，就目前而言，联邦公开市场委员会 “处于相当有利的位置，可以暂时坚持到底”，“即使这样的结果涉及在投资者谨慎甚至担忧的情况下，默许进一步抛售美国国债的风险”。</blockquote></p><p> As for potential responses to any disorderly jump in yields, economists say the Fed has a few options. Most immediately, the Fed could opt to lengthen the duration of its current asset purchases, says Bostjancic. As of December, the average maturity under the current program was 7.4 years, she says, adding that policy makers could start buying 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Doing so would effectively be one part of a new “operation twist,” with the other leg involving the sale of short-date Treasury bills, Bostjancic says.</p><p><blockquote>至于对收益率无序飙升的潜在反应，经济学家表示，美联储有几个选择。Bostjancic 表示，最直接的是，美联储可能会选择延长当前资产购买的期限。她表示，截至 12 月，当前计划的平均期限为 7.4 年，并补充说政策制定者可以开始购买 10 至 30 年期国债。Bostjancic 说，这样做实际上将是新的 “扭曲行动 ”的一部分，另一部分涉及出售短期国库券。</blockquote></p><p> If financial conditions tighten much more sharply and buying further out on the yield curve proves insufficient, Bostjancic and others say the Fed could attempt yield curve control.</p><p><blockquote>Bostjancic和其他人表示，如果金融状况进一步收紧，并且在收益率曲线上进一步买入被证明是不够的，美联储可能会尝试控制收益率曲线。</blockquote></p><p> YCC, undertaken by the Fed after World War II, the Bank of Japan in 2016, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2020, aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve, targeting longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities.As economists at the St. Louis Fed put it, because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities: if bond prices (yields) of targeted maturities remain above (below) the floor, the central bank does nothing. But if prices fall (rise) below (above) the floor, the central bank buys targeted-maturity bonds—increasing the demand and thus the price of those bonds.</p><p><blockquote>YCC由美联储在二战后、日本央行在2016年和澳大利亚储备银行在2020年实施，旨在控制收益率曲线的某些部分的利率，通过对特定期限施加利率上限来直接瞄准长期利率。正如圣路易斯联储的经济学家所说，由于债券价格和收益率成反比关系，这也意味着目标期限的价格下限：如果目标期限的债券价格（收益率）保持在下限之上（低于），央行什么也不做。但如果价格跌至（上涨）下限以下（高于），央行就会购买目标期限债券——增加需求，从而提高这些债券的价格。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/easy-money-the-dot-plot-and-the-feds-dilemma-an-investor-guide-to-a-key-meeting-51615905001?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/easy-money-the-dot-plot-and-the-feds-dilemma-an-investor-guide-to-a-key-meeting-51615905001?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103121082","content_text":"The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking about” lifting interest rates—and that it doesn’t need to.\nMore-optimistic estimates for gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation would typically prompt an acknowledgement that monetary policy would, in turn, begin to tighten. For a data-dependent Fed, the message that the economy is improving much faster than expected is at odds with the message that rates will remain near zero through 2023. How the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy arm, tries to square those conflicting dynamics will be in focus as investors take in new economic forecasts, the dot plot showing updated rate predictions, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.\n“It’s a fine line for them to walk,” says Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, as the bond market prices in more tightening amid improving economic data, Covid-19 vaccinations, and building inflation concerns, while the Fed reiterates its dovish stance. “How do you telegraph patience while conveying you won’t be behind the curve?”\nThe rate decision and updated materials will be released this Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell’s question-and-answer session following. Here is a run down of what Wall Street is watching.\nUpdated economic forecasts:In the December Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC projected 4.2% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, bringing its inflation expectation to 2% by the end of 2023 and thus implying rates would begin to rise in 2024.\nAneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, thinks the FOMC will raise GDP forecasts for the next two years to about 6% and 4%, respectively. This should push the unemployment rate below the natural rate (the lowest unemployment rate an economy can sustain with inflation remaining stable) by the second half of 2022, she says, meaning the 2% inflation forecast would be pulled forward to the end of 2022—and the first rate hike therefore pulled forward to 2023. (In December, the Fed projected inflation at a 1.8% rate at the end of this year.)\nFed officials have expressed comfort in letting inflation run hotter than the 2% target. The question is by how much. Even though the FOMC will likely repeat that the recovery will slow after this year, new forecasts may show inflation of over 2% in both 2022 and 2023 alongside an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2023, thereby meeting the Fed’s criteria of inflation above 2% and “maximum employment,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.\nSome economists, however, say the Fed may focus more on a broader unemployment rate, known as the U-6 rate, that includes discouraged workers plus those who are working part time but would prefer to work full time, among others. That would give policy makers more breathing room given how much higher U-6 stands (11.1%) compared with the “official” U-3 rate (6.2%).\nGiven the Fed’s new policy framework defines maximum employment as consisting of ‘broad-based and inclusive’ employment, investors looking to handicap the Fed’s next rate move should monitor the U-6 unemployment rate, says Bostjancic of Oxford Economics.\nThe dot plot:In December, only one of 17 FOMC members submitting forecasts saw a rate hike by the end of 2022 and five saw a rate hike by the end of 2023. While some economists say Fed officials may be wary of lifting their dots, or appearing more hawkish and thereby adding fuel to a surge in long-term interest rates that has been under way, others say the Fed has to show some change in its rate outlook.\n“Given the magnitude of the likely forecast revisions, it would be hard to justify no change in the policy outlook,” says Markowska. “Not doing so would be inconsistent with data-dependency and would strongly suggest that the Fed is calendar dependent (which the Fed insists it isn’t).” At the same time, she says, the Fed hasn’t pushed back against the recent repricing of rate expectations, which is an implicit endorsement of what’s already priced in.\nBostjancic expects the median forecast to show at least one 0.25% rate hike during 2023, while Markowska thinks the median 2023 dot could rise to 0.375% (she notes only 4 members need to lift their dots—or signal a higher expected Fed funds rate by the end of 2023—to move the median rate projection. The bond market has priced in three quarter-point increases by the end of 2023.\nBond market action:How the Treasury market reacts to the new Fed information will be at least as interesting as the information itself. Instead of the Fed potentially catching up to where the market already is in terms of rate expectations, Bostjancic says even a whiff of the Fed pulling forward rate hike expectations could spur the bond market to price in more tightening.\nIan Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital, says chances are low Powell will meaningfully alter his stance on the recent yield action, maintaining that as long as the move is driven by an improving economic outlook and inflation expectations, the repricing is for the right reasons. “Needless to say, higher yields are good until they are not and it’s just such an inflection point that represents the more significant policy risk for the Fed,” he says.\nLyngen is watching the 1.64% level on the 10-year (it was last week’s yield peak as well as the highest for the benchmark since early-February 2020) and has a 1.75% target on the note.\nSLR exemption extension:Potentially contributing to bond market action on Wednesday will be any signal around the Fed’s plan for a popular program launched last April, as pandemic-driven shutdowns cascaded.\nWall Street is hoping for an extension of a temporary exemption of Treasuries and bank deposits at the Fed Reserve Banks from the banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which requires financial institutions hold a minimum ratio of at least 3% in capital measured against their total leverage exposure. The exemption is set to expire at the end of March.\nThe exemption’s fate has big implications. Over the past year, banks have increased their purchases of Treasuries by a large $854 billion, while bank reserves have ballooned by $1.8 trillion, Bostjancic notes. Economists say the lack of an extension could significantly lessen banks’ appetite for Treasuries, putting even more upward pressure on yields.\nFurther easing watch:Wall Street generally doesn’t expect more easing unless yields stage a more disorderly surge and financial conditions meaningfully tighten. For now, the FOMC “is reasonably well positioned to stay the course for the time being,” Lyngen says, “even if such an outcome involves the risk of tacitly endorsing a further Treasury selloff at stage when investors are wary, if not worried.”\nAs for potential responses to any disorderly jump in yields, economists say the Fed has a few options. Most immediately, the Fed could opt to lengthen the duration of its current asset purchases, says Bostjancic. As of December, the average maturity under the current program was 7.4 years, she says, adding that policy makers could start buying 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Doing so would effectively be one part of a new “operation twist,” with the other leg involving the sale of short-date Treasury bills, Bostjancic says.\nIf financial conditions tighten much more sharply and buying further out on the yield curve proves insufficient, Bostjancic and others say the Fed could attempt yield curve control.\nYCC, undertaken by the Fed after World War II, the Bank of Japan in 2016, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2020, aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve, targeting longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities.As economists at the St. Louis Fed put it, because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities: if bond prices (yields) of targeted maturities remain above (below) the floor, the central bank does nothing. But if prices fall (rise) below (above) the floor, the central bank buys targeted-maturity bonds—increasing the demand and thus the price of those bonds.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1007,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/324991473"}
精彩评论