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Richard1988

2021-03-16

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This Isn't Your Father's Overvalued Market<blockquote>这不是你父亲高估的市场</blockquote>

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You can see it visually ","content":"Many analysts contend that currentstock valuationsresemble the dot-com era. You can see it visually at CurrentMarketValuation.com. Some highlights...<blockquote>许多分析师认为，当前的股票估值类似于互联网时代。你可以在CurrentMarketValuation.com直观地看到它。一些亮点...</blockquote> The classic&nbsp;“Buffett Indicator”&nbsp;certainly seems to be in nosebleed territory. Notice that the valuations in 1966, the beginning of a long-term bear market, were also high.<blockquote>经典“巴菲特指标”看起来肯定是在流鼻血的领域。请注意，1966年（长期熊市的开始）的估值也很高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ead1c8048f2f837b1f849fee01d477\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: CurrentMarketValuation.com<blockquote>资料来源：CurrentMarketValuation.com</blockquote> Then there is the ever-popular&nbsp;price-to-earnings ratio. Notice by this measure that valuations were not all that stretched in 1966. Yet there still followed a 17-year bear market, as measured from the peak back to where it started.<blockquote>然后是一直流行的市盈率请注意，根据这一衡量标准，1966年的估值并没有那么高。然而，从峰值到起点衡量，17年的熊市仍然接踵而至。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad62168f364b6064cebd61dcdba23c5b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"596\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: CurrentMarketValuation.com<blockquote>资料来源：CurrentMarketValuation.com</blockquote> This next one is unusual:&nbsp;valuation as measured by mean reversion.&nbsp;Mean reversion&nbsp;is the fairly unsophisticated concept that \"what goes up must come down.\"<blockquote>下一个很不寻常：按均值回归计量的估值均值回归是一个相当简单的概念，即“上升的必然下降”。</blockquote> While the market’s day-to-day movements are chaotic, long-term stockmarket returnstend to follow somewhat predictable upward trends. But they can also deviate from the trend for years or even decades.<blockquote>虽然市场的日常走势很混乱，但股市的长期回报往往会遵循某种可预测的上升趋势。但它们也可能在数年甚至数十年内偏离趋势。</blockquote> This isn’t a trading strategy. But it's still a useful indicator of overall market valuation relative to the past.<blockquote>这不是交易策略。但相对于过去，它仍然是整体市场估值的有用指标。</blockquote> What's Different Now<blockquote>现在有什么不同</blockquote> This is not your father’s or your grandfather’s (if he was alive in 1929) overvalued market.<blockquote>这不是你父亲或你祖父（如果他在1929年还活着）的高估市场。</blockquote> There are two major differences…<blockquote>有两个主要区别……</blockquote> First, in the dot-com era, the Federal Reserve had let loose the dogs of easymonetary policygoing into the Y2K event. That was appropriate given the uncertainty, but it clearly helped send already overvalued markets to extremes.<blockquote>首先，在互联网时代，美联储在千年虫事件中放松了宽松货币政策。考虑到不确定性，这是适当的，但它显然有助于将已经被高估的市场推向极端。</blockquote> We had day traders piling into anything that looked like an internet stock, speculations, really easy money, and so forth. Then after January 1 passed uneventfully, Greenspan appropriately reversed the Fed’s monetary policy. Oops.<blockquote>我们有日内交易者涌入任何看起来像互联网股票、投机、真正轻松赚钱等等的东西。然后在1月1日平安无事地过去后，格林斯潘适当地扭转了美联储的货币政策。哎呀。</blockquote> And now we have enormous federal government stimulus, soon to be about 25% of GDP in less than a year. That money ends up somewhere, but&nbsp;its impact is still unclear. There is no historical parallel to consider.<blockquote>现在我们有了巨大的联邦政府刺激，在不到一年的时间里将达到GDP的25%左右。这笔钱最终会到达某个地方，但其影响仍不清楚。没有历史相似之处需要考虑。</blockquote> Overvalued Market... But Perhaps Not Overpriced<blockquote>高估的市场...但也许价格并不高</blockquote> Jerome Powell is not Alan Greenspan.<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔不是艾伦·格林斯潘。</blockquote> Powell and his colleagues have made it very clear they will keep monetary policy loose and rates low for a very long time.Inflationis well down their worry list. Their top concern is unemployment,&nbsp;which is indeed a real problem.<blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事已经明确表示，他们将在很长一段时间内保持宽松的货币政策和低利率。通货膨胀在他们的担忧清单上名列前茅。他们最关心的是失业，这确实是一个现实问题。</blockquote> The Fed is telling us it will let inflation get to 3% or more. They are looking at the average inflation over time, which means they can justify doing anything they want.<blockquote>美联储告诉我们，它将让通胀率达到3%或更高。他们正在关注一段时间内的平均通货膨胀率，这意味着他们可以证明做任何他们想做的事情是合理的。</blockquote> What they want is lowrates, even if it overheats the economy, until unemployment returns to where it was before the pandemic.<blockquote>他们想要的是降低利率，即使这会使经济过热，直到失业率回到大流行之前的水平。</blockquote> If they really mean that, then we are going to have low rates for a very long time, as unemployment is a bigger problem than most people think.<blockquote>如果他们真的是这个意思，那么我们将在很长一段时间内保持低利率，因为失业是一个比大多数人想象的更大的问题。</blockquote> It also means, maybe not coincidentally, the US Treasury will find it easier to refinance an&nbsp;ever-increasing federal deficit.<blockquote>这也意味着，也许并非巧合的是，美国财政部将发现为不断增加的联邦赤字再融资变得更加容易。</blockquote> But persistent low rates might mean stock market valuations are actually in the fair value range.<blockquote>但持续的低利率可能意味着股市估值实际上处于公允价值范围内。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cef10f8c196ce434aeffb1b04642aa49\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Look at this chart showing S&amp;P 500 value relative to interest rates. Interest rates are 1.6 standard deviations below the trendline.<blockquote>看看这张显示标普500价值相对于利率的图表。利率比趋势线低1.6个标准差。</blockquote> That suggests that the S&amp;P 500 may not be so overpriced.<blockquote>这表明标普500的价格可能并没有那么高。</blockquote> While valuations tell us nothing about short-term market moves, they are actually pretty good at longer-term returns.<blockquote>虽然估值没有告诉我们任何关于短期市场走势的信息，但它们实际上在长期回报方面非常出色。</blockquote> That being said, some smart people I follow see pockets of undervaluation (at least relative to the US) in more than a few places. If you're looking forvalue, you might want to start there.<blockquote>话虽如此，我关注的一些聪明人在很多地方都看到了低估（至少相对于美国）。如果你在寻找价值，你可能想从那里开始。</blockquote> The Great Reset: The Collapse of the Biggest Bubble in History<blockquote>大重置：历史上最大泡沫的崩溃</blockquote> New York Times&nbsp;best seller and renowned financial expert John Mauldin predicts an unprecedented financial crisis that could be triggered in the next five years. Most investors seem completely unaware of the relentless pressure that’s building right now.&nbsp;<blockquote>纽约时报畅销书、著名金融专家约翰·莫尔丁预测，未来五年可能会引发一场前所未有的金融危机。大多数投资者似乎完全没有意识到目前正在积聚的无情压力。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Isn't Your Father's Overvalued Market<blockquote>这不是你父亲高估的市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Isn't Your Father's Overvalued Market<blockquote>这不是你父亲高估的市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-03-16 20:48\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nMany analysts contend that currentstock valuationsresemble the dot-com era. You can see it visually at CurrentMarketValuation.com. Some highlights...<blockquote>许多分析师认为，当前的股票估值类似于互联网时代。你可以在CurrentMarketValuation.com直观地看到它。一些亮点...</blockquote> The classic&nbsp;“Buffett Indicator”&nbsp;certainly seems to be in nosebleed territory. Notice that the valuations in 1966, the beginning of a long-term bear market, were also high.<blockquote>经典“巴菲特指标”看起来肯定是在流鼻血的领域。请注意，1966年（长期熊市的开始）的估值也很高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ead1c8048f2f837b1f849fee01d477\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"592\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: CurrentMarketValuation.com<blockquote>资料来源：CurrentMarketValuation.com</blockquote> Then there is the ever-popular&nbsp;price-to-earnings ratio. Notice by this measure that valuations were not all that stretched in 1966. Yet there still followed a 17-year bear market, as measured from the peak back to where it started.<blockquote>然后是一直流行的市盈率请注意，根据这一衡量标准，1966年的估值并没有那么高。然而，从峰值到起点衡量，17年的熊市仍然接踵而至。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad62168f364b6064cebd61dcdba23c5b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"596\"><blockquote></blockquote> Source: CurrentMarketValuation.com<blockquote>资料来源：CurrentMarketValuation.com</blockquote> This next one is unusual:&nbsp;valuation as measured by mean reversion.&nbsp;Mean reversion&nbsp;is the fairly unsophisticated concept that \"what goes up must come down.\"<blockquote>下一个很不寻常：按均值回归计量的估值均值回归是一个相当简单的概念，即“上升的必然下降”。</blockquote> While the market’s day-to-day movements are chaotic, long-term stockmarket returnstend to follow somewhat predictable upward trends. But they can also deviate from the trend for years or even decades.<blockquote>虽然市场的日常走势很混乱，但股市的长期回报往往会遵循某种可预测的上升趋势。但它们也可能在数年甚至数十年内偏离趋势。</blockquote> This isn’t a trading strategy. But it's still a useful indicator of overall market valuation relative to the past.<blockquote>这不是交易策略。但相对于过去，它仍然是整体市场估值的有用指标。</blockquote> What's Different Now<blockquote>现在有什么不同</blockquote> This is not your father’s or your grandfather’s (if he was alive in 1929) overvalued market.<blockquote>这不是你父亲或你祖父（如果他在1929年还活着）的高估市场。</blockquote> There are two major differences…<blockquote>有两个主要区别……</blockquote> First, in the dot-com era, the Federal Reserve had let loose the dogs of easymonetary policygoing into the Y2K event. That was appropriate given the uncertainty, but it clearly helped send already overvalued markets to extremes.<blockquote>首先，在互联网时代，美联储在千年虫事件中放松了宽松货币政策。考虑到不确定性，这是适当的，但它显然有助于将已经被高估的市场推向极端。</blockquote> We had day traders piling into anything that looked like an internet stock, speculations, really easy money, and so forth. Then after January 1 passed uneventfully, Greenspan appropriately reversed the Fed’s monetary policy. Oops.<blockquote>我们有日内交易者涌入任何看起来像互联网股票、投机、真正轻松赚钱等等的东西。然后在1月1日平安无事地过去后，格林斯潘适当地扭转了美联储的货币政策。哎呀。</blockquote> And now we have enormous federal government stimulus, soon to be about 25% of GDP in less than a year. That money ends up somewhere, but&nbsp;its impact is still unclear. There is no historical parallel to consider.<blockquote>现在我们有了巨大的联邦政府刺激，在不到一年的时间里将达到GDP的25%左右。这笔钱最终会到达某个地方，但其影响仍不清楚。没有历史相似之处需要考虑。</blockquote> Overvalued Market... But Perhaps Not Overpriced<blockquote>高估的市场...但也许价格并不高</blockquote> Jerome Powell is not Alan Greenspan.<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔不是艾伦·格林斯潘。</blockquote> Powell and his colleagues have made it very clear they will keep monetary policy loose and rates low for a very long time.Inflationis well down their worry list. Their top concern is unemployment,&nbsp;which is indeed a real problem.<blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事已经明确表示，他们将在很长一段时间内保持宽松的货币政策和低利率。通货膨胀在他们的担忧清单上名列前茅。他们最关心的是失业，这确实是一个现实问题。</blockquote> The Fed is telling us it will let inflation get to 3% or more. They are looking at the average inflation over time, which means they can justify doing anything they want.<blockquote>美联储告诉我们，它将让通胀率达到3%或更高。他们正在关注一段时间内的平均通货膨胀率，这意味着他们可以证明做任何他们想做的事情是合理的。</blockquote> What they want is lowrates, even if it overheats the economy, until unemployment returns to where it was before the pandemic.<blockquote>他们想要的是降低利率，即使这会使经济过热，直到失业率回到大流行之前的水平。</blockquote> If they really mean that, then we are going to have low rates for a very long time, as unemployment is a bigger problem than most people think.<blockquote>如果他们真的是这个意思，那么我们将在很长一段时间内保持低利率，因为失业是一个比大多数人想象的更大的问题。</blockquote> It also means, maybe not coincidentally, the US Treasury will find it easier to refinance an&nbsp;ever-increasing federal deficit.<blockquote>这也意味着，也许并非巧合的是，美国财政部将发现为不断增加的联邦赤字再融资变得更加容易。</blockquote> But persistent low rates might mean stock market valuations are actually in the fair value range.<blockquote>但持续的低利率可能意味着股市估值实际上处于公允价值范围内。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cef10f8c196ce434aeffb1b04642aa49\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Look at this chart showing S&amp;P 500 value relative to interest rates. Interest rates are 1.6 standard deviations below the trendline.<blockquote>看看这张显示标普500价值相对于利率的图表。利率比趋势线低1.6个标准差。</blockquote> That suggests that the S&amp;P 500 may not be so overpriced.<blockquote>这表明标普500的价格可能并没有那么高。</blockquote> While valuations tell us nothing about short-term market moves, they are actually pretty good at longer-term returns.<blockquote>虽然估值没有告诉我们任何关于短期市场走势的信息，但它们实际上在长期回报方面非常出色。</blockquote> That being said, some smart people I follow see pockets of undervaluation (at least relative to the US) in more than a few places. If you're looking forvalue, you might want to start there.<blockquote>话虽如此，我关注的一些聪明人在很多地方都看到了低估（至少相对于美国）。如果你在寻找价值，你可能想从那里开始。</blockquote> The Great Reset: The Collapse of the Biggest Bubble in History<blockquote>大重置：历史上最大泡沫的崩溃</blockquote> New York Times&nbsp;best seller and renowned financial expert John Mauldin predicts an unprecedented financial crisis that could be triggered in the next five years. Most investors seem completely unaware of the relentless pressure that’s building right now.&nbsp;<blockquote>纽约时报畅销书、著名金融专家约翰·莫尔丁预测，未来五年可能会引发一场前所未有的金融危机。大多数投资者似乎完全没有意识到目前正在积聚的无情压力。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-03-15/isnt-your-fathers-overvalued-market\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-03-15/isnt-your-fathers-overvalued-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199153511","content_text":"Many analysts contend that currentstock valuationsresemble the dot-com era. You can see it visually at CurrentMarketValuation.com. Some highlights...\nThe classic “Buffett Indicator” certainly seems to be in nosebleed territory. Notice that the valuations in 1966, the beginning of a long-term bear market, were also high.\nSource: CurrentMarketValuation.com\nThen there is the ever-popular price-to-earnings ratio. Notice by this measure that valuations were not all that stretched in 1966. Yet there still followed a 17-year bear market, as measured from the peak back to where it started.\n\nSource: CurrentMarketValuation.com\nThis next one is unusual: valuation as measured by mean reversion. Mean reversion is the fairly unsophisticated concept that \"what goes up must come down.\"\nWhile the market’s day-to-day movements are chaotic, long-term stockmarket returnstend to follow somewhat predictable upward trends. But they can also deviate from the trend for years or even decades.\nThis isn’t a trading strategy. But it's still a useful indicator of overall market valuation relative to the past.\nWhat's Different Now\nThis is not your father’s or your grandfather’s (if he was alive in 1929) overvalued market.\nThere are two major differences…\nFirst, in the dot-com era, the Federal Reserve had let loose the dogs of easymonetary policygoing into the Y2K event. That was appropriate given the uncertainty, but it clearly helped send already overvalued markets to extremes.\nWe had day traders piling into anything that looked like an internet stock, speculations, really easy money, and so forth. Then after January 1 passed uneventfully, Greenspan appropriately reversed the Fed’s monetary policy. Oops.\nAnd now we have enormous federal government stimulus, soon to be about 25% of GDP in less than a year. That money ends up somewhere, but its impact is still unclear. There is no historical parallel to consider.\nOvervalued Market... But Perhaps Not Overpriced\nJerome Powell is not Alan Greenspan.\nPowell and his colleagues have made it very clear they will keep monetary policy loose and rates low for a very long time.Inflationis well down their worry list. Their top concern is unemployment, which is indeed a real problem.\nThe Fed is telling us it will let inflation get to 3% or more. They are looking at the average inflation over time, which means they can justify doing anything they want.\nWhat they want is lowrates, even if it overheats the economy, until unemployment returns to where it was before the pandemic.\nIf they really mean that, then we are going to have low rates for a very long time, as unemployment is a bigger problem than most people think.\nIt also means, maybe not coincidentally, the US Treasury will find it easier to refinance an ever-increasing federal deficit.\nBut persistent low rates might mean stock market valuations are actually in the fair value range.\n\nLook at this chart showing S&P 500 value relative to interest rates. Interest rates are 1.6 standard deviations below the trendline.\nThat suggests that the S&P 500 may not be so overpriced.\nWhile valuations tell us nothing about short-term market moves, they are actually pretty good at longer-term returns.\nThat being said, some smart people I follow see pockets of undervaluation (at least relative to the US) in more than a few places. If you're looking forvalue, you might want to start there.\nThe Great Reset: The Collapse of the Biggest Bubble in History\nNew York Times best seller and renowned financial expert John Mauldin predicts an unprecedented financial crisis that could be triggered in the next five years. Most investors seem completely unaware of the relentless pressure that’s building right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/325285221"}