If bubble bursts then we can b_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-03-16

If bubble bursts then we can buy more. Prepare ur cash

The Tesla bubble: Bets on electric cars and the rise of SPACs have led to a new version of the dot-com boom<blockquote>特斯拉泡沫：对电动汽车的押注和SPAC的崛起导致了新版本的互联网繁荣</blockquote>

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Prepare ur cash","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325361974","repostId":1104334279,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104334279","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615865048,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104334279?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Tesla bubble: Bets on electric cars and the rise of SPACs have led to a new version of the dot-com boom<blockquote>特斯拉泡沫：对电动汽车的押注和SPAC的崛起导致了新版本的互联网繁荣</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104334279","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors take on the role of venture capitalists as they look for the next big thing, overvaluing y","content":"Investors take on the role of venture capitalists as they look for the next big thing, overvaluing young companies years before they could even begin to show the type of returns that would validate the valuation — sound familiar?<blockquote>投资者在寻找下一件大事时扮演了风险资本家的角色，在年轻公司开始展示验证估值的回报类型之前几年就高估了它们——听起来很熟悉吗？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f34bbf738000822f7553253aaaa88b3\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\">MARKETWATCH ILLUSTRATION/ISTOCKPHOTO<blockquote>MARKETWATCH插图/ISTOCKPHOTO</blockquote> In the 1990s, after seeing young tech stocks surge, investors wildly bet on young companies with little to no revenue on promises that a huge sea change was on the horizon for the global economy.<blockquote>20世纪90年代，在看到年轻的科技股飙升后，投资者疯狂押注于收入很少甚至没有收入的年轻公司，因为他们承诺全球经济即将发生巨大的变化。</blockquote> In the 2020s,something similar is happening: Young electric-vehicle and autonomous-vehicle stocks have been surging following the meteoric rise of Tesla Inc.&nbsp;and Chinese rivals like Nio Inc.,even though a fully electrified future for the automotive industry is years, or even decades, away.<blockquote>在2020年代，类似的事情正在发生：随着特斯拉公司和蔚来等中国竞争对手的迅速崛起，年轻的电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车股票一直在飙升，尽管汽车行业完全电气化的未来还需要数年甚至几十年的时间。</blockquote> This current unique bubble has been forming from a combination of a lot of cash looking for a home; the record number of special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, going public; and investors looking for the next Tesla. The most crucial ingredient in that recipe is blank-check companies focused on buying electric-vehicle makers, which give both seasoned institutional and individual investors the chance to role-play as venture capitalists.<blockquote>这个当前独特的泡沫是由大量寻找家园的现金组合而成的；上市的特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）数量创历史新高；以及寻找下一个特斯拉的投资者。该配方中最关键的成分是专注于收购电动汽车制造商的空白支票公司，这为经验丰富的机构和个人投资者提供了扮演风险投资家角色的机会。</blockquote> “SPAC investors have been much more willing to speculate with the aim of buying ‘the next Tesla,'” said Matt Kennedy, senior IPO market strategist at Renaissance Capital, adding that the soaring returns in SPAC-land&nbsp;have attracted institutional buyers as well.<blockquote>Renaissance Capital高级IPO市场策略师Matt Kennedy表示：“SPAC投资者更愿意进行投机，目的是购买‘下一个特斯拉’。”他补充说，SPAC-land的飙升回报也吸引了机构买家。</blockquote> Some air may be leaking from the bubble, though. Tesla’s shares succumbed to the law of gravity in late February and early March, tumbling from their stratospheric heights and&nbsp;losing a stunning $277 billion in market value in a month. Those losses reversed, however, and as of Monday Tesla was worth basically the same as at the end of 2020 — eight times its valuation at the beginning of last year. Chinese rivals such as Nio, Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;and Xpeng Inc.&nbsp;were still down on the year, but had also bounced back from lows.<blockquote>不过，一些空气可能会从气泡中泄漏出来。特斯拉的股价在2月底和3月初屈服于万有引力定律，从平流层的高度暴跌，一个月内市值损失了惊人的2770亿美元。然而，这些损失得到了扭转，截至周一，特斯拉的市值与2020年底基本持平——是去年初估值的八倍。蔚来、理想汽车和小鹏汽车等中国竞争对手今年仍处于下滑状态，但也已从低点反弹。</blockquote> SPACs have continued to show rampant speculation throughout, as investors looked for the types of gains those stocks enjoyed in 2020.<blockquote>SPAC自始至终继续表现出猖獗的投机行为，因为投资者正在寻找这些股票在2020年享有的收益类型。</blockquote> “I think the electric-vehicle space is something where investors are chasing past returns,” said University of Florida Professor Jay Ritter, who has both invested in SPACs and shorted Tesla shares of late. “As with all bubbles, it’s hard to know where the turning point is going to be.”<blockquote>佛罗里达大学教授Jay Ritter表示：“我认为电动汽车领域是投资者追逐过去回报的领域。”他最近投资了SPAC并做空了特斯拉股票。“与所有泡沫一样，很难知道转折点会在哪里。”</blockquote> Two cautionary examples of EV hype<blockquote>电动汽车炒作的两个警示例子</blockquote> Two EV companies are good examples of the caution needed by investors and the problems that exist in these early-stage ventures. Nikola Corp.&nbsp;was one of the early EV makers to get swept up and purchased by a SPAC, which then attracted an army of investors who drove prices sky high. But a short seller, Hindenburg Research, helped deflate that bubble.In September, Hindenburg published a detailed report, calling Nikola an “intricate fraud”&nbsp;and pointed out the company staged a deceiving video of a truck running on its hydrogen fuel-cell technology, when it was actually filmed slowly rolling down a hill, not running on its own power.<blockquote>两家电动汽车公司很好地说明了投资者需要谨慎以及这些早期企业存在的问题。Nikola Corp.是最早被SPAC收购的电动汽车制造商之一，随后吸引了大批投资者，将价格推高。但卖空者兴登堡研究公司帮助缩小了泡沫。9月，兴登堡发表了一份详细报告，称尼古拉是一个“错综复杂的欺诈行为”，并指出该公司制作了一段欺骗性视频，视频中一辆卡车使用其氢燃料电池技术行驶，而实际上它被拍摄到慢慢滚下山坡，而不是行驶靠自己的力量。</blockquote> Nikola, which surged to a peak of around $66 last July, before Hindenburg’s report, closed at $15.85 Tuesday.<blockquote>去年7月，在兴登堡报告发布之前，尼古拉股价飙升至66美元左右的峰值，周二收于15.85美元。</blockquote> While Nikola could be in the vaporware camp, Lucid Motors Inc., is another story. It is seen as a legitimate potential Tesla rival, based in Newark, Calif., not far from Tesla’s Silicon Valley manufacturing site in Fremont. Lucid was founded by Peter Rawlinson, the chief engineer of the Tesla Model S, and is developing an electric luxury sedan that is expected to launch this year, as well as an electric SUV.<blockquote>虽然Nikola可能属于vaporware阵营，但Lucid Motors Inc.则是另一回事。它被视为特斯拉合法的潜在竞争对手，总部位于加州纽瓦克，距离特斯拉位于硅谷的生产基地Fremont不远。Lucid由特斯拉Model S的首席工程师Peter Rawlinson创立，正在开发一款预计今年推出的电动豪华轿车，以及一款电动SUV。</blockquote> The mania around SPACs struck Lucid as well. After news leaked in January that Lucid was about to be acquired by a SPAC called Churchill Capital Group,shares in the SPAC surged to unreasonable levels as speculators jumped in. When the merger was actually announced in late February, it included an investment from Wall Street that valued the company far less than the public had,and its shares plunged.<blockquote>围绕SPAC的狂热也让Lucid感到震惊。在1月份Lucid即将被一家名为Churchill Capital Group的SPAC收购的消息泄露后，随着投机者的涌入，SPAC的股价飙升至不合理的水平。当合并在二月底真正宣布时，其中包括华尔街的一项投资，该投资对该公司的估值远低于公众，其股价暴跌。</blockquote> There could be plenty more pain for speculators looking to get in on EV companies. In January alone, according to Dealogic, 90 SPACs filed to go public. While only a handful of those companies actually said they plan to focus on electric vehicles or batteries, many did not identify a target industry or market for acquisitions but did mention a sustainable focus — for example, Switchback II&nbsp;of Dallas, which raised $275 million in its January IPO, said it intends to focus on companies in the “broad energy transition or sustainability arena targeting industries that require innovative solutions to decarbonize in order to meet critical emission reduction objectives.”<blockquote>对于希望进入电动汽车公司的投机者来说，可能会面临更多痛苦。根据Dealogic的数据，仅在1月份，就有90家SPAC申请上市。虽然其中只有少数公司实际上表示计划专注于电动汽车或电池，但许多公司没有确定收购的目标行业或市场，但确实提到了可持续重点——例如，达拉斯的Switchback II在一月份的首次公开募股中筹集了2.75亿美元，表示打算专注于“广泛的能源转型或可持续发展领域的公司，目标是需要创新解决方案脱碳以实现关键减排目标的行业”。</blockquote> “Never underestimate the market’s ability to find products for people who have money. The market has more money than product right now. The shelf of near-ready IPOs was pretty bare, and laid more barren with COVID-19,” said Scott Galloway, a professor of marketing at New York University’s Stern School of Business, in an interview late last year. “So all of a sudden, there is good money looking for public companies. It’s incredible how fast this submarket has reformed around SPACS.”<blockquote>“永远不要低估市场为有钱人寻找产品的能力。现在市场上的钱比产品还多。几乎准备好的IPO货架上空空如也，新冠肺炎让它们变得更加贫瘠，”斯科特·加洛韦（Scott Galloway）是纽约大学斯特恩商学院（Stern School of Business）营销学教授，去年年底在接受采访时表示。“所以突然之间，有很多资金在寻找上市公司。这个子市场围绕SPAC的改革速度之快令人难以置信。”</blockquote> Typical IPO buyers like Fidelity and Franklin Templeton are making large investments in SPACs through private investment in public equities, or PIPEs, the type of investment that pumped into Lucid as its SPAC traded much higher.<blockquote>富达(Fidelity)和富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)等典型IPO买家正在通过对公共股票(PIPE)的私人投资对SPAC进行大量投资，这种投资类型在Lucid的SPAC交易大幅上涨时注入了Lucid。</blockquote> SPACs represent an unusual investment opportunity, because they take place in two phases. In the first phase, the blank-check company raises money in its IPO, the pre-acquisition phase, which can offer investors a good return. They also offer investors the ability to exit, with original funds intact, if a proposed acquisition is not to the liking of the investors.<blockquote>SPAC代表了一个不同寻常的投资机会，因为它们分两个阶段进行。在第一阶段，空白支票公司在首次公开募股（收购前阶段）筹集资金，这可以为投资者提供良好的回报。如果拟议的收购不符合投资者的喜好，它们还为投资者提供了退出的能力，原始资金完好无损。</blockquote> So far investors have had an excellent run in SPACs in general, especially hedge funds, or the SPAC mafia, Ritter said. According to Dealogic, a total of 262 blank-check companies went public in U.S. markets in 2020, with a current average performance of 21.3% for those 2020 deals. So far for 2021 IPO SPACs, though, the current average performance is 1.95%.<blockquote>里特表示，到目前为止，投资者总体上在SPAC中表现出色，尤其是对冲基金或SPAC黑手党。根据Dealogic的数据，2020年共有262家空白支票公司在美国市场上市，目前这些2020年交易的平均表现为21.3%。不过，到目前为止，2021年IPO SPAC的平均表现为1.95%。</blockquote> Ritter was so impressed with the returns that he invested in a few SPACs himself in the aftermarket, after seeing his funds in an investment account earn barely anything in interest.<blockquote>里特对回报印象深刻，在看到自己投资账户中的资金几乎没有赚取任何利息后，他自己在售后市场投资了一些SPAC。</blockquote> “There is investor enthusiasm. Even though supply has been exploding, investor demand has been growing even faster,” Ritter said, adding that most of the electric-vehicle companies have chosen to go public via a SPAC and not the standard, more costly, IPO process.<blockquote>里特表示：“投资者热情高涨。尽管供应呈爆炸式增长，但投资者需求增长更快。”他补充说，大多数电动汽车公司都选择通过SPAC上市，而不是标准的、成本更高的IPO流程。</blockquote> SPACs are typically a better investment in the pre-acquisition phase, which can go as long as two years, the time limit set for companies to make an acquisition. Only early investors, though, are often able to receive the biggest security for their investment in SPACs. They usually receive a warrant with each share of the IPO, that entitles them to buy a share at a prearranged price. Public investors in the aftermarket deal don’t get this option,which is why hedge funds have zeroed in on SPACs as a sure thing.<blockquote>SPAC通常是收购前阶段更好的投资，收购前阶段可能长达两年，这是公司进行收购的时间限制。然而，通常只有早期投资者才能从SPAC的投资中获得最大的保障。他们通常会收到每股IPO股票的认股权证，使他们有权以预先安排的价格购买股票。售后交易的公共投资者没有这个选择，这就是为什么对冲基金肯定会将SPAC作为一件事。</blockquote> Ritter noted that even though he drives a Tesla himself, he has been short the stock.<blockquote>里特指出，尽管他自己驾驶特斯拉，但他一直做空该股。</blockquote> “When it got added to the S&amp;P 500, I shorted more shares. So far it’s been a wealth-losing activity for me,” Ritter said, adding that he also believes many investors are hoping for a repeat performance of Tesla. “Investors tend to chase past returns. Fifteen years ago it was investing in real estate, which ended badly; 21 years ago the internet bubble was about to peak.”<blockquote>里特表示：“当它被添加到标普500时，我做空了更多股票。到目前为止，这对我来说是一项财富损失活动。”他补充说，他还相信许多投资者都希望特斯拉的表现能够重演。“投资者倾向于追逐过去的回报。15年前是投资房地产，结局很糟糕；21年前互联网泡沫即将见顶。”</blockquote> EV SPACs as the new dot-com bubble<blockquote>电动汽车SPAC成为新的互联网泡沫</blockquote> Just as the dot-com boom and bust of 1999-2000 was often compared with the tulip mania in the 17th century of the then-Dutch Republic, it is worth asking the same question about some of the different bubbles in the market today, from the GameStop Corp.&nbsp;insanity to the electric-vehicle hype.<blockquote>正如人们经常将1999-2000年的互联网繁荣和萧条与17世纪当时荷兰共和国的郁金香狂热进行比较一样，对于当今市场上的一些不同泡沫，也值得提出同样的问题，从游戏驿站公司的疯狂到电动汽车的炒作。</blockquote> During both the tulip boom and the dot-com boom, new and relatively unknown products were introduced, and prices (in futures contracts for tulips, stock prices for dot-com companies) reached staggering levels based on hype for potential demand that was not sustainable. Many companies like Pets.com and Webvan ultimately collapsed, with business ideas that were ahead of their time, while others took advantage of the market mania, such as WorldCom, which deceived investors with one of the biggest accounting frauds in history. Others survived and thrived, such as Amazon.com Inc.,which has soared to unbelievable heights of over $1.6 trillion in market value.<blockquote>在郁金香繁荣和互联网繁荣期间，新的和相对未知的产品被推出，价格（郁金香的期货合约，互联网公司的股票价格）达到了惊人的水平，这是基于对不可持续的潜在需求的炒作。许多像Pets.com和Webvan这样的公司最终倒闭了，它们的商业理念走在了时代的前面，而其他公司则利用了市场的狂热，比如世通公司，它用历史上最大的会计欺诈之一欺骗了投资者。其他公司幸存下来并蓬勃发展，例如亚马逊公司，其市值已飙升至超过1.6万亿美元的令人难以置信的高度。</blockquote> As the global automotive industry goes through a similar seismic shift, investors are banking on a similar phenomenon, but with electric cars, and autonomous vehicles replacing gas-fueled combustion engines. This includes companies in China, where another crop of EV companies seek to unseat Tesla in the most populated country in the world. Currently, though, electric cars currently make up only approximately 2% of global auto sales. Estimates for the future vary broadly, from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market in the same time frame.<blockquote>随着全球汽车行业经历类似的翻天覆地的转变，投资者也寄希望于类似的现象，但电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车将取代燃气内燃机。这包括中国的公司，在中国，另一批电动汽车公司试图在世界上人口最多的国家取代特斯拉。但目前，电动汽车仅占全球汽车销量的2%左右。对未来的预测差异很大，从到2030年占汽车销量10%至20%的低端预测到同一时间内占市场的三分之二。</blockquote> With those predicted changes on the horizon, combined with Tesla’s gigantic stock gains in 2020, including its addition to the S&amp;P 500,have led to some crazy bets on unproven or early-stage technologies once again.<blockquote>随着这些预测的变化即将到来，再加上特斯拉在2020年股价的巨大上涨，包括加入标普500，再次导致了一些对未经证实或早期技术的疯狂押注。</blockquote> In 2020, 15 private electric-vehicle companies were purchased by blank-check companies and are now publicly traded, according to Renaissance Capital, which tracks IPOS and has its own IPO ETF.But most of them don’t have a proven technology or business model, little or no revenue and no profits in sight.<blockquote>据跟踪IPO并拥有自己的IPO ETF的Renaissance Capital称，2020年，有15家私营电动汽车公司被空白支票公司收购，目前已公开交易。但他们中的大多数没有经过验证的技术或商业模式，收入很少或没有，也看不到利润。</blockquote> “While this is an area with enormous potential, many of these companies are completely unproven,&nbsp;and investors have very little to go on in terms of their ability to win customers or scale manufacturing,” said Kennedy of Renaissance Capital.<blockquote>Renaissance Capital的肯尼迪表示：“虽然这是一个潜力巨大的领域，但其中许多公司完全未经证实，投资者在赢得客户或扩大制造规模的能力方面几乎没有什么可做的。”</blockquote> The U.S. EV targets of the blank check companies, such as Nikola, Lucid and Fisker Inc.,an electric-car startup in Los Angeles, have not manufactured a single electric vehicle for sale, or collected any revenue yet. But their market caps have soared, and&nbsp;the companies are promising huge gains in revenue in a short time period.<blockquote>空白支票公司的美国电动汽车目标，如Nikola、Lucid和洛杉矶电动汽车初创公司Fisker Inc.，尚未生产一辆电动汽车进行销售，也尚未获得任何收入。但它们的市值飙升，并且这些公司承诺在短时间内收入将大幅增长。</blockquote> These stocks have not traded on profit or revenue, but on pure speculation. Fisker saw its shares soar nearly 40% after&nbsp;a memo of understanding with Foxconn Technology Group,the manufacturer of Apple Inc.’s&nbsp;iPhones, to jointly produce more than 250,000 electric SUVs, possibly at FoxConn’s new factory in Wisconsin. The deal is for Fisker’s second model, and manufacturing would begin at the end of 2023, as it adopts a sort of Uber-like approach to contracting out high costs.<blockquote>这些股票的交易不是基于利润或收入，而是纯粹的投机。在与苹果公司iPhone制造商富士康科技集团签署谅解备忘录，共同生产超过25万辆电动SUV（可能在富士康位于威斯康辛州的新工厂）后，菲斯克股价飙升近40%。这笔交易是针对菲斯克的第二款车型，生产将于2023年底开始，因为它采用了一种类似Uber的方法来外包高成本。</blockquote> The history of Fisker shows why investors should be concerned. The original company, Fisker Automotive, went bankrupt in 2013, and its assets were purchased by a Chinese auto-parts company that has retained some brand rights and started up Fisker Inc. while saying goodbye to the founder who gave the company its name. Fisker’s first product, an electric SUV called the Ocean, is expected to be launched in late 2022.<blockquote>菲斯克的历史表明了投资者应该担心的原因。原公司Fisker Automotive于2013年破产，其资产被一家中国汽车零部件公司收购，该公司保留了部分品牌权，并在告别以该公司命名的创始人的同时创办了Fisker Inc.。菲斯克的首款产品是一款名为Ocean的电动SUV，预计将于2022年底推出。</blockquote> These are the types of investments that are more appropriate for venture capitalists, who are used to betting on companies without revenue or profits or even a product. The list of companies targeted by SPACs looking at the EV market or the sustainable-energy arena also includes companies making electric batteries, charging-station makers, and other components for EVs and AVs, such as Lidar.<blockquote>这些是更适合风险投资家的投资类型，他们习惯于押注于没有收入或利润甚至没有产品的公司。着眼于电动汽车市场或可持续能源领域的SPAC瞄准的公司名单还包括制造电池、充电站制造商以及电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车其他组件（例如激光雷达）的公司。</blockquote> Velodyne Lidar Inc.,makes technology that is used as part of the vision system in autonomous vehicles, and is now in the middle of a post-SPAC war. David Hall, who founded the Morgan Hill, Calif.-based company, and his wife are sparring with the investors&nbsp;who purchased Velodyne Lidar,and took the company public via a SPAC late last year. But since then, the Halls and Velodyne’s acquirers had a falling out.<blockquote>威力登激光雷达公司生产的技术被用作自动驾驶汽车视觉系统的一部分，目前正处于特殊目的收购公司后的战争中。大卫·霍尔(David Hall)创立了这家总部位于加利福尼亚州摩根山的公司，他和他的妻子正在与购买Velodyne Lidar的投资者争论，并于去年年底通过SPAC将该公司上市。但从那以后，霍尔夫妇和威力登的收购者闹翻了。</blockquote> Last month, the company named a new chairman and chief marketing officer following an investigation into the conduct of David Hall and Marta Thoma Hall, who held those positions, respectively, and terminated Marta Hall’s employment.<blockquote>上个月，在对分别担任这些职位的David Hall和Marta Thoma Hall的行为进行调查后，该公司任命了新的董事长和首席营销官，并终止了Marta Hall的雇佣关系。</blockquote> “The investigation concluded that Mr.&nbsp;Hall and Ms.&nbsp;Hall each behaved inappropriately with regard to board and company processes, and failed to operate with respect, honesty, integrity, and candor in their dealings with company officers and directors,”Velodyne said in a statement&nbsp;and regulatory filing in late February.<blockquote>威力登在一份声明中表示：“调查得出的结论是，霍尔先生和霍尔女士在董事会和公司流程方面的行为都不恰当，并且在与公司高管和董事打交道时未能尊重、诚实、正直和坦率。”二月底的声明和监管文件。</blockquote> The two remain directors of the company that ousted them, as well as majority owners, with a 58.4% ownership of common stock in Velodyne.<blockquote>这两人仍然是驱逐他们的公司的董事，也是大股东，拥有威力登58.4%的普通股所有权。</blockquote> “To be completely clear: I chose to resign from the board because I had numerous concerns about the strategic direction and current leadership of Velodyne Lidar,” David Hall said in a statement last week. “I firmly believe that the board has fostered an anti-stockholder culture and that Velodyne Lidar’s corporate governance is broken. Perhaps most unsettling was the board’s decision to rubber-stamp an increased compensation package for Mr. [Anand] Gopalan despite the Company releasing weak Q4 2020 earnings and missing year-end forecasts.”<blockquote>David Hall在上周的一份声明中表示：“完全明确的是：我选择辞去董事会职务，因为我对Velodyne Lidar的战略方向和当前领导层有很多担忧。”“我坚信董事会营造了一种反股东文化，Velodyne Lidar的公司治理被打破。也许最令人不安的是董事会决定批准增加[Anand]Gopalan先生的薪酬方案，尽管该公司发布了疲软的2020年第四季度收益且未达到年终预测。”</blockquote> Gopalan is Veloydyne’s chief executive.<blockquote>戈帕兰是Veloydyne的首席执行官。</blockquote> A few weeks ago, Hall told The Wall Street Journal that the moves were a “well-played-out plan to hijack the corporation by the SPAC guys.” The Halls were not immediately available for an interview, their spokesman said.<blockquote>几周前，霍尔告诉《华尔街日报》，这些举措是“SPAC人员精心策划的劫持公司的计划”。他们的发言人说，大厅不能立即接受采访。</blockquote> The Velodyne saga is one that can often happen at startup companies that are not yet ready for prime time, when entrenched founders spar with their investors. One high-profile example that did made its way into the press in recent years was when VC investors&nbsp;pushed for the ouster of co-founder Travis Kalanick&nbsp;at Uber Technologies,long before the company went public.<blockquote>威力登传奇经常发生在尚未准备好迎接黄金时间的初创公司，当根深蒂固的创始人与投资者发生争执时。近年来，一个引人注目的例子确实出现在媒体上，那就是早在Uber Technologies上市之前，风险投资者就推动该公司联合创始人特拉维斯·卡兰尼克(Travis Kalanick)下台。</blockquote> So while SPACs may represent the democratization of venture-capital investing, where average retail investors have a more even playing field with Silicon Valley venture capitalists, getting in at the very early stages of young companies, it is also the democratizing the huge amounts of risk that are typically borne by professional investors. But unlike venture capitalists, who spread out their investments across a group of at least 10 various young or high-risk companies, knowing that most will fail as they hope to hit one big winner, individuals have a lot more to lose.<blockquote>因此，虽然SPAC可能代表着风险资本投资的民主化，普通散户投资者与硅谷风险资本家有一个更加公平的竞争环境，在年轻公司的早期阶段进入，但这也是通常由专业投资者承担的巨额风险的民主化。但与风险投资家不同的是，风险投资家将投资分散到至少10家不同的年轻或高风险公司，他们知道大多数公司都会失败，因为他们希望获得一个大赢家，而个人会损失更多。</blockquote> “The SPACs we are seeing now are focused on somewhat VC-like companies. Many of these companies don’t have revenue, they don’t have positive cash flow or earnings. It’s kind of like a VC in a liquid form, via a SPAC,” said Robert Davis, a partner and chief investment officer of Round Table Wealth Management. “Not all these SPACs are going to be great.”<blockquote>“我们现在看到的SPAC专注于有点类似VC的公司。其中许多公司没有收入，没有正现金流或收益。这有点像流动形式的VC，通过SPAC，”Round Table Wealth Management合伙人兼首席投资官罗伯特·戴维斯(Robert Davis)表示。“并非所有这些SPAC都会很棒。”</blockquote> There is a lot of risk in many of these deals, especially in the “pre-revenue” bunch.<blockquote>这些交易中有很多风险，尤其是在“收入前”交易中。</blockquote> “This is a little bit like in the Middle Ages, alchemists would take base metal and turn it into gold,” said Sandeep Dahiya, associate professor of entrepreneurship at&nbsp;Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business.“SPACs are like that: ‘Here, give us your money and we will try to make you rich.’ Let’s see how that plays out.”<blockquote>“这有点像中世纪，炼金术士会把贱金属变成黄金，”乔治敦大学麦克多诺商学院创业学副教授Sandeep Dahiya说，“SPAC就像这样：‘在这里，把你的钱给我们，我们会努力让你变得富有。’让我们看看结果如何。”</blockquote> For most investors, especially the average retail investor who did not get in early like the hedge funds, it will likely not end well in the short term. Anyone who is betting on long-term returns will need to choose wisely, and be wary of the SPAC flavor of the day.<blockquote>对于大多数投资者，尤其是没有像对冲基金那样提前入场的普通散户投资者来说，短期内可能不会有好结果。任何押注长期回报的人都需要做出明智的选择，并警惕当时的特殊目的收购公司风格。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Tesla bubble: Bets on electric cars and the rise of SPACs have led to a new version of the dot-com boom<blockquote>特斯拉泡沫：对电动汽车的押注和SPAC的崛起导致了新版本的互联网繁荣</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Tesla bubble: Bets on electric cars and the rise of SPACs have led to a new version of the dot-com boom<blockquote>特斯拉泡沫：对电动汽车的押注和SPAC的崛起导致了新版本的互联网繁荣</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-03-16 11:24\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors take on the role of venture capitalists as they look for the next big thing, overvaluing young companies years before they could even begin to show the type of returns that would validate the valuation — sound familiar?<blockquote>投资者在寻找下一件大事时扮演了风险资本家的角色，在年轻公司开始展示验证估值的回报类型之前几年就高估了它们——听起来很熟悉吗？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f34bbf738000822f7553253aaaa88b3\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\">MARKETWATCH ILLUSTRATION/ISTOCKPHOTO<blockquote>MARKETWATCH插图/ISTOCKPHOTO</blockquote> In the 1990s, after seeing young tech stocks surge, investors wildly bet on young companies with little to no revenue on promises that a huge sea change was on the horizon for the global economy.<blockquote>20世纪90年代，在看到年轻的科技股飙升后，投资者疯狂押注于收入很少甚至没有收入的年轻公司，因为他们承诺全球经济即将发生巨大的变化。</blockquote> In the 2020s,something similar is happening: Young electric-vehicle and autonomous-vehicle stocks have been surging following the meteoric rise of Tesla Inc.&nbsp;and Chinese rivals like Nio Inc.,even though a fully electrified future for the automotive industry is years, or even decades, away.<blockquote>在2020年代，类似的事情正在发生：随着特斯拉公司和蔚来等中国竞争对手的迅速崛起，年轻的电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车股票一直在飙升，尽管汽车行业完全电气化的未来还需要数年甚至几十年的时间。</blockquote> This current unique bubble has been forming from a combination of a lot of cash looking for a home; the record number of special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, going public; and investors looking for the next Tesla. The most crucial ingredient in that recipe is blank-check companies focused on buying electric-vehicle makers, which give both seasoned institutional and individual investors the chance to role-play as venture capitalists.<blockquote>这个当前独特的泡沫是由大量寻找家园的现金组合而成的；上市的特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）数量创历史新高；以及寻找下一个特斯拉的投资者。该配方中最关键的成分是专注于收购电动汽车制造商的空白支票公司，这为经验丰富的机构和个人投资者提供了扮演风险投资家角色的机会。</blockquote> “SPAC investors have been much more willing to speculate with the aim of buying ‘the next Tesla,'” said Matt Kennedy, senior IPO market strategist at Renaissance Capital, adding that the soaring returns in SPAC-land&nbsp;have attracted institutional buyers as well.<blockquote>Renaissance Capital高级IPO市场策略师Matt Kennedy表示：“SPAC投资者更愿意进行投机，目的是购买‘下一个特斯拉’。”他补充说，SPAC-land的飙升回报也吸引了机构买家。</blockquote> Some air may be leaking from the bubble, though. Tesla’s shares succumbed to the law of gravity in late February and early March, tumbling from their stratospheric heights and&nbsp;losing a stunning $277 billion in market value in a month. Those losses reversed, however, and as of Monday Tesla was worth basically the same as at the end of 2020 — eight times its valuation at the beginning of last year. Chinese rivals such as Nio, Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;and Xpeng Inc.&nbsp;were still down on the year, but had also bounced back from lows.<blockquote>不过，一些空气可能会从气泡中泄漏出来。特斯拉的股价在2月底和3月初屈服于万有引力定律，从平流层的高度暴跌，一个月内市值损失了惊人的2770亿美元。然而，这些损失得到了扭转，截至周一，特斯拉的市值与2020年底基本持平——是去年初估值的八倍。蔚来、理想汽车和小鹏汽车等中国竞争对手今年仍处于下滑状态，但也已从低点反弹。</blockquote> SPACs have continued to show rampant speculation throughout, as investors looked for the types of gains those stocks enjoyed in 2020.<blockquote>SPAC自始至终继续表现出猖獗的投机行为，因为投资者正在寻找这些股票在2020年享有的收益类型。</blockquote> “I think the electric-vehicle space is something where investors are chasing past returns,” said University of Florida Professor Jay Ritter, who has both invested in SPACs and shorted Tesla shares of late. “As with all bubbles, it’s hard to know where the turning point is going to be.”<blockquote>佛罗里达大学教授Jay Ritter表示：“我认为电动汽车领域是投资者追逐过去回报的领域。”他最近投资了SPAC并做空了特斯拉股票。“与所有泡沫一样，很难知道转折点会在哪里。”</blockquote> Two cautionary examples of EV hype<blockquote>电动汽车炒作的两个警示例子</blockquote> Two EV companies are good examples of the caution needed by investors and the problems that exist in these early-stage ventures. Nikola Corp.&nbsp;was one of the early EV makers to get swept up and purchased by a SPAC, which then attracted an army of investors who drove prices sky high. But a short seller, Hindenburg Research, helped deflate that bubble.In September, Hindenburg published a detailed report, calling Nikola an “intricate fraud”&nbsp;and pointed out the company staged a deceiving video of a truck running on its hydrogen fuel-cell technology, when it was actually filmed slowly rolling down a hill, not running on its own power.<blockquote>两家电动汽车公司很好地说明了投资者需要谨慎以及这些早期企业存在的问题。Nikola Corp.是最早被SPAC收购的电动汽车制造商之一，随后吸引了大批投资者，将价格推高。但卖空者兴登堡研究公司帮助缩小了泡沫。9月，兴登堡发表了一份详细报告，称尼古拉是一个“错综复杂的欺诈行为”，并指出该公司制作了一段欺骗性视频，视频中一辆卡车使用其氢燃料电池技术行驶，而实际上它被拍摄到慢慢滚下山坡，而不是行驶靠自己的力量。</blockquote> Nikola, which surged to a peak of around $66 last July, before Hindenburg’s report, closed at $15.85 Tuesday.<blockquote>去年7月，在兴登堡报告发布之前，尼古拉股价飙升至66美元左右的峰值，周二收于15.85美元。</blockquote> While Nikola could be in the vaporware camp, Lucid Motors Inc., is another story. It is seen as a legitimate potential Tesla rival, based in Newark, Calif., not far from Tesla’s Silicon Valley manufacturing site in Fremont. Lucid was founded by Peter Rawlinson, the chief engineer of the Tesla Model S, and is developing an electric luxury sedan that is expected to launch this year, as well as an electric SUV.<blockquote>虽然Nikola可能属于vaporware阵营，但Lucid Motors Inc.则是另一回事。它被视为特斯拉合法的潜在竞争对手，总部位于加州纽瓦克，距离特斯拉位于硅谷的生产基地Fremont不远。Lucid由特斯拉Model S的首席工程师Peter Rawlinson创立，正在开发一款预计今年推出的电动豪华轿车，以及一款电动SUV。</blockquote> The mania around SPACs struck Lucid as well. After news leaked in January that Lucid was about to be acquired by a SPAC called Churchill Capital Group,shares in the SPAC surged to unreasonable levels as speculators jumped in. When the merger was actually announced in late February, it included an investment from Wall Street that valued the company far less than the public had,and its shares plunged.<blockquote>围绕SPAC的狂热也让Lucid感到震惊。在1月份Lucid即将被一家名为Churchill Capital Group的SPAC收购的消息泄露后，随着投机者的涌入，SPAC的股价飙升至不合理的水平。当合并在二月底真正宣布时，其中包括华尔街的一项投资，该投资对该公司的估值远低于公众，其股价暴跌。</blockquote> There could be plenty more pain for speculators looking to get in on EV companies. In January alone, according to Dealogic, 90 SPACs filed to go public. While only a handful of those companies actually said they plan to focus on electric vehicles or batteries, many did not identify a target industry or market for acquisitions but did mention a sustainable focus — for example, Switchback II&nbsp;of Dallas, which raised $275 million in its January IPO, said it intends to focus on companies in the “broad energy transition or sustainability arena targeting industries that require innovative solutions to decarbonize in order to meet critical emission reduction objectives.”<blockquote>对于希望进入电动汽车公司的投机者来说，可能会面临更多痛苦。根据Dealogic的数据，仅在1月份，就有90家SPAC申请上市。虽然其中只有少数公司实际上表示计划专注于电动汽车或电池，但许多公司没有确定收购的目标行业或市场，但确实提到了可持续重点——例如，达拉斯的Switchback II在一月份的首次公开募股中筹集了2.75亿美元，表示打算专注于“广泛的能源转型或可持续发展领域的公司，目标是需要创新解决方案脱碳以实现关键减排目标的行业”。</blockquote> “Never underestimate the market’s ability to find products for people who have money. The market has more money than product right now. The shelf of near-ready IPOs was pretty bare, and laid more barren with COVID-19,” said Scott Galloway, a professor of marketing at New York University’s Stern School of Business, in an interview late last year. “So all of a sudden, there is good money looking for public companies. It’s incredible how fast this submarket has reformed around SPACS.”<blockquote>“永远不要低估市场为有钱人寻找产品的能力。现在市场上的钱比产品还多。几乎准备好的IPO货架上空空如也，新冠肺炎让它们变得更加贫瘠，”斯科特·加洛韦（Scott Galloway）是纽约大学斯特恩商学院（Stern School of Business）营销学教授，去年年底在接受采访时表示。“所以突然之间，有很多资金在寻找上市公司。这个子市场围绕SPAC的改革速度之快令人难以置信。”</blockquote> Typical IPO buyers like Fidelity and Franklin Templeton are making large investments in SPACs through private investment in public equities, or PIPEs, the type of investment that pumped into Lucid as its SPAC traded much higher.<blockquote>富达(Fidelity)和富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)等典型IPO买家正在通过对公共股票(PIPE)的私人投资对SPAC进行大量投资，这种投资类型在Lucid的SPAC交易大幅上涨时注入了Lucid。</blockquote> SPACs represent an unusual investment opportunity, because they take place in two phases. In the first phase, the blank-check company raises money in its IPO, the pre-acquisition phase, which can offer investors a good return. They also offer investors the ability to exit, with original funds intact, if a proposed acquisition is not to the liking of the investors.<blockquote>SPAC代表了一个不同寻常的投资机会，因为它们分两个阶段进行。在第一阶段，空白支票公司在首次公开募股（收购前阶段）筹集资金，这可以为投资者提供良好的回报。如果拟议的收购不符合投资者的喜好，它们还为投资者提供了退出的能力，原始资金完好无损。</blockquote> So far investors have had an excellent run in SPACs in general, especially hedge funds, or the SPAC mafia, Ritter said. According to Dealogic, a total of 262 blank-check companies went public in U.S. markets in 2020, with a current average performance of 21.3% for those 2020 deals. So far for 2021 IPO SPACs, though, the current average performance is 1.95%.<blockquote>里特表示，到目前为止，投资者总体上在SPAC中表现出色，尤其是对冲基金或SPAC黑手党。根据Dealogic的数据，2020年共有262家空白支票公司在美国市场上市，目前这些2020年交易的平均表现为21.3%。不过，到目前为止，2021年IPO SPAC的平均表现为1.95%。</blockquote> Ritter was so impressed with the returns that he invested in a few SPACs himself in the aftermarket, after seeing his funds in an investment account earn barely anything in interest.<blockquote>里特对回报印象深刻，在看到自己投资账户中的资金几乎没有赚取任何利息后，他自己在售后市场投资了一些SPAC。</blockquote> “There is investor enthusiasm. Even though supply has been exploding, investor demand has been growing even faster,” Ritter said, adding that most of the electric-vehicle companies have chosen to go public via a SPAC and not the standard, more costly, IPO process.<blockquote>里特表示：“投资者热情高涨。尽管供应呈爆炸式增长，但投资者需求增长更快。”他补充说，大多数电动汽车公司都选择通过SPAC上市，而不是标准的、成本更高的IPO流程。</blockquote> SPACs are typically a better investment in the pre-acquisition phase, which can go as long as two years, the time limit set for companies to make an acquisition. Only early investors, though, are often able to receive the biggest security for their investment in SPACs. They usually receive a warrant with each share of the IPO, that entitles them to buy a share at a prearranged price. Public investors in the aftermarket deal don’t get this option,which is why hedge funds have zeroed in on SPACs as a sure thing.<blockquote>SPAC通常是收购前阶段更好的投资，收购前阶段可能长达两年，这是公司进行收购的时间限制。然而，通常只有早期投资者才能从SPAC的投资中获得最大的保障。他们通常会收到每股IPO股票的认股权证，使他们有权以预先安排的价格购买股票。售后交易的公共投资者没有这个选择，这就是为什么对冲基金肯定会将SPAC作为一件事。</blockquote> Ritter noted that even though he drives a Tesla himself, he has been short the stock.<blockquote>里特指出，尽管他自己驾驶特斯拉，但他一直做空该股。</blockquote> “When it got added to the S&amp;P 500, I shorted more shares. So far it’s been a wealth-losing activity for me,” Ritter said, adding that he also believes many investors are hoping for a repeat performance of Tesla. “Investors tend to chase past returns. Fifteen years ago it was investing in real estate, which ended badly; 21 years ago the internet bubble was about to peak.”<blockquote>里特表示：“当它被添加到标普500时，我做空了更多股票。到目前为止，这对我来说是一项财富损失活动。”他补充说，他还相信许多投资者都希望特斯拉的表现能够重演。“投资者倾向于追逐过去的回报。15年前是投资房地产，结局很糟糕；21年前互联网泡沫即将见顶。”</blockquote> EV SPACs as the new dot-com bubble<blockquote>电动汽车SPAC成为新的互联网泡沫</blockquote> Just as the dot-com boom and bust of 1999-2000 was often compared with the tulip mania in the 17th century of the then-Dutch Republic, it is worth asking the same question about some of the different bubbles in the market today, from the GameStop Corp.&nbsp;insanity to the electric-vehicle hype.<blockquote>正如人们经常将1999-2000年的互联网繁荣和萧条与17世纪当时荷兰共和国的郁金香狂热进行比较一样，对于当今市场上的一些不同泡沫，也值得提出同样的问题，从游戏驿站公司的疯狂到电动汽车的炒作。</blockquote> During both the tulip boom and the dot-com boom, new and relatively unknown products were introduced, and prices (in futures contracts for tulips, stock prices for dot-com companies) reached staggering levels based on hype for potential demand that was not sustainable. Many companies like Pets.com and Webvan ultimately collapsed, with business ideas that were ahead of their time, while others took advantage of the market mania, such as WorldCom, which deceived investors with one of the biggest accounting frauds in history. Others survived and thrived, such as Amazon.com Inc.,which has soared to unbelievable heights of over $1.6 trillion in market value.<blockquote>在郁金香繁荣和互联网繁荣期间，新的和相对未知的产品被推出，价格（郁金香的期货合约，互联网公司的股票价格）达到了惊人的水平，这是基于对不可持续的潜在需求的炒作。许多像Pets.com和Webvan这样的公司最终倒闭了，它们的商业理念走在了时代的前面，而其他公司则利用了市场的狂热，比如世通公司，它用历史上最大的会计欺诈之一欺骗了投资者。其他公司幸存下来并蓬勃发展，例如亚马逊公司，其市值已飙升至超过1.6万亿美元的令人难以置信的高度。</blockquote> As the global automotive industry goes through a similar seismic shift, investors are banking on a similar phenomenon, but with electric cars, and autonomous vehicles replacing gas-fueled combustion engines. This includes companies in China, where another crop of EV companies seek to unseat Tesla in the most populated country in the world. Currently, though, electric cars currently make up only approximately 2% of global auto sales. Estimates for the future vary broadly, from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market in the same time frame.<blockquote>随着全球汽车行业经历类似的翻天覆地的转变，投资者也寄希望于类似的现象，但电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车将取代燃气内燃机。这包括中国的公司，在中国，另一批电动汽车公司试图在世界上人口最多的国家取代特斯拉。但目前，电动汽车仅占全球汽车销量的2%左右。对未来的预测差异很大，从到2030年占汽车销量10%至20%的低端预测到同一时间内占市场的三分之二。</blockquote> With those predicted changes on the horizon, combined with Tesla’s gigantic stock gains in 2020, including its addition to the S&amp;P 500,have led to some crazy bets on unproven or early-stage technologies once again.<blockquote>随着这些预测的变化即将到来，再加上特斯拉在2020年股价的巨大上涨，包括加入标普500，再次导致了一些对未经证实或早期技术的疯狂押注。</blockquote> In 2020, 15 private electric-vehicle companies were purchased by blank-check companies and are now publicly traded, according to Renaissance Capital, which tracks IPOS and has its own IPO ETF.But most of them don’t have a proven technology or business model, little or no revenue and no profits in sight.<blockquote>据跟踪IPO并拥有自己的IPO ETF的Renaissance Capital称，2020年，有15家私营电动汽车公司被空白支票公司收购，目前已公开交易。但他们中的大多数没有经过验证的技术或商业模式，收入很少或没有，也看不到利润。</blockquote> “While this is an area with enormous potential, many of these companies are completely unproven,&nbsp;and investors have very little to go on in terms of their ability to win customers or scale manufacturing,” said Kennedy of Renaissance Capital.<blockquote>Renaissance Capital的肯尼迪表示：“虽然这是一个潜力巨大的领域，但其中许多公司完全未经证实，投资者在赢得客户或扩大制造规模的能力方面几乎没有什么可做的。”</blockquote> The U.S. EV targets of the blank check companies, such as Nikola, Lucid and Fisker Inc.,an electric-car startup in Los Angeles, have not manufactured a single electric vehicle for sale, or collected any revenue yet. But their market caps have soared, and&nbsp;the companies are promising huge gains in revenue in a short time period.<blockquote>空白支票公司的美国电动汽车目标，如Nikola、Lucid和洛杉矶电动汽车初创公司Fisker Inc.，尚未生产一辆电动汽车进行销售，也尚未获得任何收入。但它们的市值飙升，并且这些公司承诺在短时间内收入将大幅增长。</blockquote> These stocks have not traded on profit or revenue, but on pure speculation. Fisker saw its shares soar nearly 40% after&nbsp;a memo of understanding with Foxconn Technology Group,the manufacturer of Apple Inc.’s&nbsp;iPhones, to jointly produce more than 250,000 electric SUVs, possibly at FoxConn’s new factory in Wisconsin. The deal is for Fisker’s second model, and manufacturing would begin at the end of 2023, as it adopts a sort of Uber-like approach to contracting out high costs.<blockquote>这些股票的交易不是基于利润或收入，而是纯粹的投机。在与苹果公司iPhone制造商富士康科技集团签署谅解备忘录，共同生产超过25万辆电动SUV（可能在富士康位于威斯康辛州的新工厂）后，菲斯克股价飙升近40%。这笔交易是针对菲斯克的第二款车型，生产将于2023年底开始，因为它采用了一种类似Uber的方法来外包高成本。</blockquote> The history of Fisker shows why investors should be concerned. The original company, Fisker Automotive, went bankrupt in 2013, and its assets were purchased by a Chinese auto-parts company that has retained some brand rights and started up Fisker Inc. while saying goodbye to the founder who gave the company its name. Fisker’s first product, an electric SUV called the Ocean, is expected to be launched in late 2022.<blockquote>菲斯克的历史表明了投资者应该担心的原因。原公司Fisker Automotive于2013年破产，其资产被一家中国汽车零部件公司收购，该公司保留了部分品牌权，并在告别以该公司命名的创始人的同时创办了Fisker Inc.。菲斯克的首款产品是一款名为Ocean的电动SUV，预计将于2022年底推出。</blockquote> These are the types of investments that are more appropriate for venture capitalists, who are used to betting on companies without revenue or profits or even a product. The list of companies targeted by SPACs looking at the EV market or the sustainable-energy arena also includes companies making electric batteries, charging-station makers, and other components for EVs and AVs, such as Lidar.<blockquote>这些是更适合风险投资家的投资类型，他们习惯于押注于没有收入或利润甚至没有产品的公司。着眼于电动汽车市场或可持续能源领域的SPAC瞄准的公司名单还包括制造电池、充电站制造商以及电动汽车和自动驾驶汽车其他组件（例如激光雷达）的公司。</blockquote> Velodyne Lidar Inc.,makes technology that is used as part of the vision system in autonomous vehicles, and is now in the middle of a post-SPAC war. David Hall, who founded the Morgan Hill, Calif.-based company, and his wife are sparring with the investors&nbsp;who purchased Velodyne Lidar,and took the company public via a SPAC late last year. But since then, the Halls and Velodyne’s acquirers had a falling out.<blockquote>威力登激光雷达公司生产的技术被用作自动驾驶汽车视觉系统的一部分，目前正处于特殊目的收购公司后的战争中。大卫·霍尔(David Hall)创立了这家总部位于加利福尼亚州摩根山的公司，他和他的妻子正在与购买Velodyne Lidar的投资者争论，并于去年年底通过SPAC将该公司上市。但从那以后，霍尔夫妇和威力登的收购者闹翻了。</blockquote> Last month, the company named a new chairman and chief marketing officer following an investigation into the conduct of David Hall and Marta Thoma Hall, who held those positions, respectively, and terminated Marta Hall’s employment.<blockquote>上个月，在对分别担任这些职位的David Hall和Marta Thoma Hall的行为进行调查后，该公司任命了新的董事长和首席营销官，并终止了Marta Hall的雇佣关系。</blockquote> “The investigation concluded that Mr.&nbsp;Hall and Ms.&nbsp;Hall each behaved inappropriately with regard to board and company processes, and failed to operate with respect, honesty, integrity, and candor in their dealings with company officers and directors,”Velodyne said in a statement&nbsp;and regulatory filing in late February.<blockquote>威力登在一份声明中表示：“调查得出的结论是，霍尔先生和霍尔女士在董事会和公司流程方面的行为都不恰当，并且在与公司高管和董事打交道时未能尊重、诚实、正直和坦率。”二月底的声明和监管文件。</blockquote> The two remain directors of the company that ousted them, as well as majority owners, with a 58.4% ownership of common stock in Velodyne.<blockquote>这两人仍然是驱逐他们的公司的董事，也是大股东，拥有威力登58.4%的普通股所有权。</blockquote> “To be completely clear: I chose to resign from the board because I had numerous concerns about the strategic direction and current leadership of Velodyne Lidar,” David Hall said in a statement last week. “I firmly believe that the board has fostered an anti-stockholder culture and that Velodyne Lidar’s corporate governance is broken. Perhaps most unsettling was the board’s decision to rubber-stamp an increased compensation package for Mr. [Anand] Gopalan despite the Company releasing weak Q4 2020 earnings and missing year-end forecasts.”<blockquote>David Hall在上周的一份声明中表示：“完全明确的是：我选择辞去董事会职务，因为我对Velodyne Lidar的战略方向和当前领导层有很多担忧。”“我坚信董事会营造了一种反股东文化，Velodyne Lidar的公司治理被打破。也许最令人不安的是董事会决定批准增加[Anand]Gopalan先生的薪酬方案，尽管该公司发布了疲软的2020年第四季度收益且未达到年终预测。”</blockquote> Gopalan is Veloydyne’s chief executive.<blockquote>戈帕兰是Veloydyne的首席执行官。</blockquote> A few weeks ago, Hall told The Wall Street Journal that the moves were a “well-played-out plan to hijack the corporation by the SPAC guys.” The Halls were not immediately available for an interview, their spokesman said.<blockquote>几周前，霍尔告诉《华尔街日报》，这些举措是“SPAC人员精心策划的劫持公司的计划”。他们的发言人说，大厅不能立即接受采访。</blockquote> The Velodyne saga is one that can often happen at startup companies that are not yet ready for prime time, when entrenched founders spar with their investors. One high-profile example that did made its way into the press in recent years was when VC investors&nbsp;pushed for the ouster of co-founder Travis Kalanick&nbsp;at Uber Technologies,long before the company went public.<blockquote>威力登传奇经常发生在尚未准备好迎接黄金时间的初创公司，当根深蒂固的创始人与投资者发生争执时。近年来，一个引人注目的例子确实出现在媒体上，那就是早在Uber Technologies上市之前，风险投资者就推动该公司联合创始人特拉维斯·卡兰尼克(Travis Kalanick)下台。</blockquote> So while SPACs may represent the democratization of venture-capital investing, where average retail investors have a more even playing field with Silicon Valley venture capitalists, getting in at the very early stages of young companies, it is also the democratizing the huge amounts of risk that are typically borne by professional investors. But unlike venture capitalists, who spread out their investments across a group of at least 10 various young or high-risk companies, knowing that most will fail as they hope to hit one big winner, individuals have a lot more to lose.<blockquote>因此，虽然SPAC可能代表着风险资本投资的民主化，普通散户投资者与硅谷风险资本家有一个更加公平的竞争环境，在年轻公司的早期阶段进入，但这也是通常由专业投资者承担的巨额风险的民主化。但与风险投资家不同的是，风险投资家将投资分散到至少10家不同的年轻或高风险公司，他们知道大多数公司都会失败，因为他们希望获得一个大赢家，而个人会损失更多。</blockquote> “The SPACs we are seeing now are focused on somewhat VC-like companies. Many of these companies don’t have revenue, they don’t have positive cash flow or earnings. It’s kind of like a VC in a liquid form, via a SPAC,” said Robert Davis, a partner and chief investment officer of Round Table Wealth Management. “Not all these SPACs are going to be great.”<blockquote>“我们现在看到的SPAC专注于有点类似VC的公司。其中许多公司没有收入，没有正现金流或收益。这有点像流动形式的VC，通过SPAC，”Round Table Wealth Management合伙人兼首席投资官罗伯特·戴维斯(Robert Davis)表示。“并非所有这些SPAC都会很棒。”</blockquote> There is a lot of risk in many of these deals, especially in the “pre-revenue” bunch.<blockquote>这些交易中有很多风险，尤其是在“收入前”交易中。</blockquote> “This is a little bit like in the Middle Ages, alchemists would take base metal and turn it into gold,” said Sandeep Dahiya, associate professor of entrepreneurship at&nbsp;Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business.“SPACs are like that: ‘Here, give us your money and we will try to make you rich.’ Let’s see how that plays out.”<blockquote>“这有点像中世纪，炼金术士会把贱金属变成黄金，”乔治敦大学麦克多诺商学院创业学副教授Sandeep Dahiya说，“SPAC就像这样：‘在这里，把你的钱给我们，我们会努力让你变得富有。’让我们看看结果如何。”</blockquote> For most investors, especially the average retail investor who did not get in early like the hedge funds, it will likely not end well in the short term. Anyone who is betting on long-term returns will need to choose wisely, and be wary of the SPAC flavor of the day.<blockquote>对于大多数投资者，尤其是没有像对冲基金那样提前入场的普通散户投资者来说，短期内可能不会有好结果。任何押注长期回报的人都需要做出明智的选择，并警惕当时的特殊目的收购公司风格。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-tesla-bubble-bets-on-electric-cars-and-the-rise-of-spacs-have-led-to-a-new-version-of-the-dot-com-boom-11615836310?mod=mw_latestnews&mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMAT":"应用材料","LI":"理想汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LRCX":"拉姆研究"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-tesla-bubble-bets-on-electric-cars-and-the-rise-of-spacs-have-led-to-a-new-version-of-the-dot-com-boom-11615836310?mod=mw_latestnews&mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1104334279","content_text":"Investors take on the role of venture capitalists as they look for the next big thing, overvaluing young companies years before they could even begin to show the type of returns that would validate the valuation — sound familiar?\nMARKETWATCH ILLUSTRATION/ISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the 1990s, after seeing young tech stocks surge, investors wildly bet on young companies with little to no revenue on promises that a huge sea change was on the horizon for the global economy.\nIn the 2020s,something similar is happening: Young electric-vehicle and autonomous-vehicle stocks have been surging following the meteoric rise of Tesla Inc. and Chinese rivals like Nio Inc.,even though a fully electrified future for the automotive industry is years, or even decades, away.\nThis current unique bubble has been forming from a combination of a lot of cash looking for a home; the record number of special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, going public; and investors looking for the next Tesla. The most crucial ingredient in that recipe is blank-check companies focused on buying electric-vehicle makers, which give both seasoned institutional and individual investors the chance to role-play as venture capitalists.\n“SPAC investors have been much more willing to speculate with the aim of buying ‘the next Tesla,'” said Matt Kennedy, senior IPO market strategist at Renaissance Capital, adding that the soaring returns in SPAC-land have attracted institutional buyers as well.\nSome air may be leaking from the bubble, though. Tesla’s shares succumbed to the law of gravity in late February and early March, tumbling from their stratospheric heights and losing a stunning $277 billion in market value in a month. Those losses reversed, however, and as of Monday Tesla was worth basically the same as at the end of 2020 — eight times its valuation at the beginning of last year. Chinese rivals such as Nio, Li Auto Inc. and Xpeng Inc. were still down on the year, but had also bounced back from lows.\nSPACs have continued to show rampant speculation throughout, as investors looked for the types of gains those stocks enjoyed in 2020.\n“I think the electric-vehicle space is something where investors are chasing past returns,” said University of Florida Professor Jay Ritter, who has both invested in SPACs and shorted Tesla shares of late. “As with all bubbles, it’s hard to know where the turning point is going to be.”\nTwo cautionary examples of EV hype\nTwo EV companies are good examples of the caution needed by investors and the problems that exist in these early-stage ventures. Nikola Corp. was one of the early EV makers to get swept up and purchased by a SPAC, which then attracted an army of investors who drove prices sky high. But a short seller, Hindenburg Research, helped deflate that bubble.In September, Hindenburg published a detailed report, calling Nikola an “intricate fraud” and pointed out the company staged a deceiving video of a truck running on its hydrogen fuel-cell technology, when it was actually filmed slowly rolling down a hill, not running on its own power.\nNikola, which surged to a peak of around $66 last July, before Hindenburg’s report, closed at $15.85 Tuesday.\nWhile Nikola could be in the vaporware camp, Lucid Motors Inc., is another story. It is seen as a legitimate potential Tesla rival, based in Newark, Calif., not far from Tesla’s Silicon Valley manufacturing site in Fremont. Lucid was founded by Peter Rawlinson, the chief engineer of the Tesla Model S, and is developing an electric luxury sedan that is expected to launch this year, as well as an electric SUV.\nThe mania around SPACs struck Lucid as well. After news leaked in January that Lucid was about to be acquired by a SPAC called Churchill Capital Group,shares in the SPAC surged to unreasonable levels as speculators jumped in. When the merger was actually announced in late February, it included an investment from Wall Street that valued the company far less than the public had,and its shares plunged.\nThere could be plenty more pain for speculators looking to get in on EV companies. In January alone, according to Dealogic, 90 SPACs filed to go public. While only a handful of those companies actually said they plan to focus on electric vehicles or batteries, many did not identify a target industry or market for acquisitions but did mention a sustainable focus — for example, Switchback II of Dallas, which raised $275 million in its January IPO, said it intends to focus on companies in the “broad energy transition or sustainability arena targeting industries that require innovative solutions to decarbonize in order to meet critical emission reduction objectives.”\n“Never underestimate the market’s ability to find products for people who have money. The market has more money than product right now. The shelf of near-ready IPOs was pretty bare, and laid more barren with COVID-19,” said Scott Galloway, a professor of marketing at New York University’s Stern School of Business, in an interview late last year. “So all of a sudden, there is good money looking for public companies. It’s incredible how fast this submarket has reformed around SPACS.”\nTypical IPO buyers like Fidelity and Franklin Templeton are making large investments in SPACs through private investment in public equities, or PIPEs, the type of investment that pumped into Lucid as its SPAC traded much higher.\nSPACs represent an unusual investment opportunity, because they take place in two phases. In the first phase, the blank-check company raises money in its IPO, the pre-acquisition phase, which can offer investors a good return. They also offer investors the ability to exit, with original funds intact, if a proposed acquisition is not to the liking of the investors.\nSo far investors have had an excellent run in SPACs in general, especially hedge funds, or the SPAC mafia, Ritter said. According to Dealogic, a total of 262 blank-check companies went public in U.S. markets in 2020, with a current average performance of 21.3% for those 2020 deals. So far for 2021 IPO SPACs, though, the current average performance is 1.95%.\nRitter was so impressed with the returns that he invested in a few SPACs himself in the aftermarket, after seeing his funds in an investment account earn barely anything in interest.\n“There is investor enthusiasm. Even though supply has been exploding, investor demand has been growing even faster,” Ritter said, adding that most of the electric-vehicle companies have chosen to go public via a SPAC and not the standard, more costly, IPO process.\nSPACs are typically a better investment in the pre-acquisition phase, which can go as long as two years, the time limit set for companies to make an acquisition. Only early investors, though, are often able to receive the biggest security for their investment in SPACs. They usually receive a warrant with each share of the IPO, that entitles them to buy a share at a prearranged price. Public investors in the aftermarket deal don’t get this option,which is why hedge funds have zeroed in on SPACs as a sure thing.\nRitter noted that even though he drives a Tesla himself, he has been short the stock.\n“When it got added to the S&P 500, I shorted more shares. So far it’s been a wealth-losing activity for me,” Ritter said, adding that he also believes many investors are hoping for a repeat performance of Tesla. “Investors tend to chase past returns. Fifteen years ago it was investing in real estate, which ended badly; 21 years ago the internet bubble was about to peak.”\nEV SPACs as the new dot-com bubble\nJust as the dot-com boom and bust of 1999-2000 was often compared with the tulip mania in the 17th century of the then-Dutch Republic, it is worth asking the same question about some of the different bubbles in the market today, from the GameStop Corp. insanity to the electric-vehicle hype.\nDuring both the tulip boom and the dot-com boom, new and relatively unknown products were introduced, and prices (in futures contracts for tulips, stock prices for dot-com companies) reached staggering levels based on hype for potential demand that was not sustainable. Many companies like Pets.com and Webvan ultimately collapsed, with business ideas that were ahead of their time, while others took advantage of the market mania, such as WorldCom, which deceived investors with one of the biggest accounting frauds in history. Others survived and thrived, such as Amazon.com Inc.,which has soared to unbelievable heights of over $1.6 trillion in market value.\nAs the global automotive industry goes through a similar seismic shift, investors are banking on a similar phenomenon, but with electric cars, and autonomous vehicles replacing gas-fueled combustion engines. This includes companies in China, where another crop of EV companies seek to unseat Tesla in the most populated country in the world. Currently, though, electric cars currently make up only approximately 2% of global auto sales. Estimates for the future vary broadly, from a low-end forecast of 10% to 20% of cars sold by 2030 to as much as two-thirds of the market in the same time frame.\nWith those predicted changes on the horizon, combined with Tesla’s gigantic stock gains in 2020, including its addition to the S&P 500,have led to some crazy bets on unproven or early-stage technologies once again.\nIn 2020, 15 private electric-vehicle companies were purchased by blank-check companies and are now publicly traded, according to Renaissance Capital, which tracks IPOS and has its own IPO ETF.But most of them don’t have a proven technology or business model, little or no revenue and no profits in sight.\n“While this is an area with enormous potential, many of these companies are completely unproven, and investors have very little to go on in terms of their ability to win customers or scale manufacturing,” said Kennedy of Renaissance Capital.\nThe U.S. EV targets of the blank check companies, such as Nikola, Lucid and Fisker Inc.,an electric-car startup in Los Angeles, have not manufactured a single electric vehicle for sale, or collected any revenue yet. But their market caps have soared, and the companies are promising huge gains in revenue in a short time period.\nThese stocks have not traded on profit or revenue, but on pure speculation. Fisker saw its shares soar nearly 40% after a memo of understanding with Foxconn Technology Group,the manufacturer of Apple Inc.’s iPhones, to jointly produce more than 250,000 electric SUVs, possibly at FoxConn’s new factory in Wisconsin. The deal is for Fisker’s second model, and manufacturing would begin at the end of 2023, as it adopts a sort of Uber-like approach to contracting out high costs.\nThe history of Fisker shows why investors should be concerned. The original company, Fisker Automotive, went bankrupt in 2013, and its assets were purchased by a Chinese auto-parts company that has retained some brand rights and started up Fisker Inc. while saying goodbye to the founder who gave the company its name. Fisker’s first product, an electric SUV called the Ocean, is expected to be launched in late 2022.\nThese are the types of investments that are more appropriate for venture capitalists, who are used to betting on companies without revenue or profits or even a product. The list of companies targeted by SPACs looking at the EV market or the sustainable-energy arena also includes companies making electric batteries, charging-station makers, and other components for EVs and AVs, such as Lidar.\nVelodyne Lidar Inc.,makes technology that is used as part of the vision system in autonomous vehicles, and is now in the middle of a post-SPAC war. David Hall, who founded the Morgan Hill, Calif.-based company, and his wife are sparring with the investors who purchased Velodyne Lidar,and took the company public via a SPAC late last year. But since then, the Halls and Velodyne’s acquirers had a falling out.\nLast month, the company named a new chairman and chief marketing officer following an investigation into the conduct of David Hall and Marta Thoma Hall, who held those positions, respectively, and terminated Marta Hall’s employment.\n“The investigation concluded that Mr. Hall and Ms. Hall each behaved inappropriately with regard to board and company processes, and failed to operate with respect, honesty, integrity, and candor in their dealings with company officers and directors,”Velodyne said in a statement and regulatory filing in late February.\nThe two remain directors of the company that ousted them, as well as majority owners, with a 58.4% ownership of common stock in Velodyne.\n“To be completely clear: I chose to resign from the board because I had numerous concerns about the strategic direction and current leadership of Velodyne Lidar,” David Hall said in a statement last week. “I firmly believe that the board has fostered an anti-stockholder culture and that Velodyne Lidar’s corporate governance is broken. Perhaps most unsettling was the board’s decision to rubber-stamp an increased compensation package for Mr. [Anand] Gopalan despite the Company releasing weak Q4 2020 earnings and missing year-end forecasts.”\nGopalan is Veloydyne’s chief executive.\nA few weeks ago, Hall told The Wall Street Journal that the moves were a “well-played-out plan to hijack the corporation by the SPAC guys.” The Halls were not immediately available for an interview, their spokesman said.\nThe Velodyne saga is one that can often happen at startup companies that are not yet ready for prime time, when entrenched founders spar with their investors. One high-profile example that did made its way into the press in recent years was when VC investors pushed for the ouster of co-founder Travis Kalanick at Uber Technologies,long before the company went public.\nSo while SPACs may represent the democratization of venture-capital investing, where average retail investors have a more even playing field with Silicon Valley venture capitalists, getting in at the very early stages of young companies, it is also the democratizing the huge amounts of risk that are typically borne by professional investors. But unlike venture capitalists, who spread out their investments across a group of at least 10 various young or high-risk companies, knowing that most will fail as they hope to hit one big winner, individuals have a lot more to lose.\n“The SPACs we are seeing now are focused on somewhat VC-like companies. Many of these companies don’t have revenue, they don’t have positive cash flow or earnings. It’s kind of like a VC in a liquid form, via a SPAC,” said Robert Davis, a partner and chief investment officer of Round Table Wealth Management. “Not all these SPACs are going to be great.”\nThere is a lot of risk in many of these deals, especially in the “pre-revenue” bunch.\n“This is a little bit like in the Middle Ages, alchemists would take base metal and turn it into gold,” said Sandeep Dahiya, associate professor of entrepreneurship at Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business.“SPACs are like that: ‘Here, give us your money and we will try to make you rich.’ Let’s see how that plays out.”\nFor most investors, especially the average retail investor who did not get in early like the hedge funds, it will likely not end well in the short term. Anyone who is betting on long-term returns will need to choose wisely, and be wary of the SPAC flavor of the day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"AMAT":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"LRCX":0.9,"NKLA":0.9,"CCIV":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":44,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/325361974"}