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2021-03-16

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"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":325656335,"tweetId":"325656335","gmtCreate":1615897350727,"gmtModify":1703494645261,"author":{"id":3574925934110012,"idStr":"3574925934110012","authorId":3574925934110012,"authorIdStr":"3574925934110012","name":"greynaldum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>\nGreat ariticle, would you like to share it?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>\nGreat ariticle, would you like to share it?</body></html>","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325656335","repostId":1127134490,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127134490","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615889741,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127134490?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 18:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127134490","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 has been pulled lower and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotatio","content":"Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&amp;P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.<blockquote>上周，杰夫·冈拉克(Jeff Gundlach)在他最新的Doubleline网络广播中展示了一张引人注目的图表，其中显示纳斯达克与标普500的比率已被拉低（由于纳斯达克表现不佳加上价值股走强），目前正处于网络泡沫峰值水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4617081a74b98cbab2c1287942cb9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"357\">Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"<blockquote>拉里·麦克唐纳(Larry McDonald)在周末最新的《熊陷阱》报告中看到了这张图表，写道：“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”补充说“全球第一和第二流动性最强、可以说是最重要的股指正在发出重要的轮动信号。我们认为，科技股和成长股的优异表现已经结束，向价值股和大宗商品股的轮动已经开始。”</blockquote> AsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.<blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，虽然最近的单日上涨（周二上涨4%，周四上涨2.4%）将纳斯达克100指数推升至四周以来的首次上涨，但它们并没有安抚人们的神经。毕竟，在下跌趋势中，大幅上涨的日子并不罕见。2000年，当市场开始为期三年的崩盘时，该指数有27个交易日上涨至少4%。相比之下，1999年有六天这样的日子，当时价格翻了一番。</blockquote> “The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"<blockquote>Marketfield Asset Management LLC首席执行官Michael Shaoul表示：“熊市的早期阶段通常会出现猛烈的反弹，最终重要的是反弹会持续多远，而不是它们在单个交易日内的移动速度。”越来越多的证据表明，科技行业最终放弃了其全球关键领导地位。”</blockquote> That’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value.<blockquote>这给任何经历过互联网泡沫破裂的人敲响了警钟。当时，当纳斯达克100指数于2000年3月开始下跌时，等权重标普500不断前进，直到14个月后才见顶——这表明资金正在从互联网泡沫中飙升的科技巨头手中转移。最终，纳斯达克100指数损失了一半的价值.</blockquote> “People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. “If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.” A rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.<blockquote>“人们不应该因为除了科技集团之外几乎所有其他公司都表现良好而感到安慰，”Miller Tabak+Co.首席市场策略师Matt Maley说道。“如果科技集团继续表现不佳，最终将给股市的其他部分带来压力。”根据鲍威尔周四的言论，成长股和科技股的轮动只会加速，特别是如果他听起来不够鸽派并再次惊动市场，引发另一场债券暴跌，这反过来意味着成长股的抛售——正如我们在之前的许多场合指出的那样——久期接近历史最高水平，因此只是对冲基金从未接触过的债券代理。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c176f70232a97f988ba92c84c6836d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"201\">However, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically5-year rates.<blockquote>然而，尽管在2月底的“通货再膨胀恐慌”抛售期间，所有人的目光都集中在10年期债券一旦突破1.50%，债券就会出现清算级联，但国债曲线上下一次清算级联可能开始的地方现在是腹部，因为正如彭博社所写，早在12月份，人们就认为美联储可能会压低长期国债收益率，而现在的问题在于短期国债收益率，特别是5年期利率。</blockquote> Yields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that theFed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.<blockquote>最近几周，该期限的收益率已变得不稳定，飙升至之前0.75%的“红线”之上，因为人们猜测美联储可能需要比官员们表示的提前一整年开始加息周期。这种转变还扰乱了通货再膨胀赌注经典迭代的前景，即5年期和30年期收益率之间的差距不断扩大，尽管刺激推动的复苏的说法才刚刚获得动力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4be02c3e2224fb5edfb0e0ed77bcac\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\">\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.<blockquote>“美联储下周将不得不在违背市场预期或允许市场预期之间徘徊。”巴克莱全球国债交易联席主管凯文·沃尔特表示。如果没有美联储的抵制，“曲线腹部可能会有更多压力”，在这种情况下，最好的陡峭化因素将是2年期国债收益率与5年期和7年期国债收益率之间的利差，随着交易员定价收紧，利差还有上升空间。</blockquote> And while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.<blockquote>尽管大多数投资银行研究部门，当然还有美联储，预计至少要到2023年才会出现任何提振，掉期市场反映出美联储在2022年底左右将利率从接近零的水平上调的可能性约为75%。事实上，沃尔特预计下周不会有重大政策变化，并预计官员们将在2023年之前继续维持利率不变，但在最近一轮通胀飙升的情况下，即使什么都不做也可能迫使另一轮抛售，这被视为市场的推动迫使鲍威尔进行某种形式的收益率曲线控制。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148711c8ea3822a0af209f086802c068\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"263\">On the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.<blockquote>美联储下周确实发出2023年加息信号的可能性很小，瑞穗国际(Mizuho International Plc)多资产策略主管Peter Chatwell表示，市场可能会将加息预期带入2022年上半年，1年期远期5年期利率可能会上调50个基点，在一封电子邮件中说。这还将导致从增长到价值的重新轮动，进一步压低上面显示的纳斯达克到SPX的图表。</blockquote> That said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.<blockquote>也就是说，大多数人预计鲍威尔不会解决长期或最近的腹部持续抛售问题——这位美联储主席只略微提及了推动10年期国债收益率突破1.6%的债券市场暴跌。他强调了金融状况的重要性，尽管随着收益率飙升，科技股周五确实下跌，但金融状况仍然宽松。</blockquote> None of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.<blockquote>这些都无助于缓解通胀担忧，因为市场担心美联储正在迅速落后于曲线。正如我们上周指出的，5年期通胀预期达到2008年以来的最高水平以及强劲的就业数据只会强化人们对美联储需要比预期更快收紧政策的押注。这种猜测挤压了对5年至30年更陡峭曲线的押注，将利差从2月份的6年多高点167个基点缩小至略高于150个基点。5年期国债收益率为0.84%，远低于去年以来的最高水平。但与此同时，由于美联储将在不久的将来将利率维持在接近零的水平，2年期国债仍接近历史低点。这使得人们对广受关注的10年期利率利差以及与5年期和7年期等其他期限利率利差的押注继续发挥作用。</blockquote> And with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.<blockquote>随着前端锚定很长很长一段时间，问题就变成了什么是最有利可图的陡峭交易。Incapital高级交易员兼首席市场策略师帕特里克·利里(Patrick Leary)表示：“有些陡峭化者比其他者更好。”他预计2s10s将继续扩大，但已在陡峭的地方获利了结，并正在寻找更好的重新进入点。其他人则看到了5至30年陡峭时期的潜力。道明证券(TD Securities)建议以146.5个基点入场，目标为170个基点，理由是加息的门槛很高以及息票供应增加的前景。</blockquote> Taking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.<blockquote>退一步说，交易员之所以如此关注曲线的5年期部分，即“腹部”，是因为如果加息投机进一步加剧，它被视为可能首当其冲遭受任何后续抛售的地方，因为大部分起飞制度预计将在现在发行的5年期票据到期后发生。</blockquote> Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.In swaptions,a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis.<blockquote>此外，正如彭博社指出的那样，市场的某些角落已经将注意力转向多次加息的可能性。在掉期期权中，巴克莱银行的分析显示，美联储的目标是到2025年3月加息七到八次.</blockquote> There is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.<blockquote>当然，市场存在超前的风险——这就是美国银行最近发布的RIC报告的全部要点，该报告认为任何地方都没有足够的持续通胀来证明2022年加息是合理的，更不用说到2025年加息7次了：Insight Investment美国交易主管杰米·安德森(Jamie Anderson)表示，“市场可能有点超前了”，导致5年期利率上涨过多。他表示，如果数据疲软或美联储按兵不动的时间长于预期，“腹部应该会反弹，曲线会重新变陡”。</blockquote> For Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.<blockquote>对于Incapital的Leary来说，5s30差距的缩小是因为官员们可能会在下周讨论甚至宣布一个转折。他表示，这种操作涉及出售短期资产并购买长期资产以控制收益率，将给腹部带来更大压力。此前，欧洲央行决定加快债券购买步伐。</blockquote> “All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"<blockquote>Leary表示：“所有这些交易都高度依赖美联储保持观望，不改变政策立场。”“市场肯定是在和美联储玩一场吃鸡的游戏，在收紧金融状况并迫使美联储介入之前，测试收益率能达到多高。”</blockquote> Meanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.<blockquote>与此同时，尽管一些策略师无视成长型股票的收益率风险，声称随着时间的推移，科技股与美国国债的关系变化无常，但Ned Davis Research首席全球宏观策略师Joe Kalish表示，研究发现，自2014年以来，纳斯达克100指数的远期收益率（市盈率的倒数，市盈率越高，股票越便宜）几乎与预测的公司债券利率同步变动。</blockquote> In his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario wherethe Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.<blockquote>在他的模型中，如果10年期美国国债收益率今年升至2%，这反过来可能会将长期Baa评级债券利率推至4.5%，在这种情况下在其他条件相同的情况下，纳斯达克100指数必须下跌20%才能保持吸引力。卡利什表示，如果收益率攀升但纳斯达克没有变动，这将表明估值过高，并补充说他的模型在1987年和2000年正确地发出了警告。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e1270022eb5742b2cf2a7c328a5d897\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"380\">Also keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>另请记住，即使在最近下跌之后，纳斯达克100指数的市盈率（28）相对于其他股票来说也远不便宜，比标普500溢价7%。</blockquote> Finally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&amp;P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.<blockquote>最后，随着航空公司和汽车制造商等遭受大流行打击的公司卷土重来，自2009年以来除一年外一直维持科技股优异表现的增长优势即将消失——至少在未来两年是这样。软件和互联网公司的利润预计今年将增长22%，2022年将增长12%。两者都落后于广泛的标普500，后者的盈利预计分别增长24%和15%。</blockquote> So going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.<blockquote>Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示，回到顶部图表，随着纳斯达克100指数即将达到相对峰值，不考虑下行风险将是一个错误。</blockquote> “New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”<blockquote>“新时代投资正处于一个重要的十字路口，”他说。“在纳斯达克和科技股长期普遍表现出色之后，预计将出现一个表现不佳、整合甚至彻底崩溃的阶段并非没有道理。”</blockquote> If all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:<blockquote>如果这一切听起来不必要地令人费解，我们提醒您荷兰合作银行的迈克尔·埃弗里(Michael Everyevery)一夜之间所说的话，这可能是对美联储选择的最佳总结：</blockquote> \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down). As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\" In short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chairdoesn'tdo anything, and damned if he&nbsp;does...<blockquote>“如果鲍威尔什么都不做，我们可能会处于2013年式的缩减恐慌的边缘。这将给包括东京在内的世界各地的市场带来哥斯拉大小的冲击波。（我现在想起了1970/80年代的英国电视广告，一个模拟zilla会吃掉著名的全球地标，然后决定他更喜欢某种糖果“甚至比Barrow-in-Furness公交车站更有嚼劲。”）“当然，鲍威尔可以说些什么或做些什么：扭曲和呼喊行动；或者YCC。首先，这将表明财政部和美联储之间存在脱节，这并不理想。此外，这些措施将促使市场出现重大扁平化，但有两种不同的类型（短端上升和长端下降；或者只是长端向下）。正如我在这里不断重复的那样，YCC也会为一些全新的史诗冒险打开大门，比如打开神秘的巨门，金刚在他的偏远岛屿上被发现。”简而言之，为周四的波动做好准备，届时鲍威尔（和科技股多头）将受到诅咒，如果美联储主席不是做任何事，如果他是的...</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"We Are Sitting On An Incredibly Important Turning Point\"<blockquote>“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-03-16 18:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nLast week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&amp;P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.<blockquote>上周，杰夫·冈拉克(Jeff Gundlach)在他最新的Doubleline网络广播中展示了一张引人注目的图表，其中显示纳斯达克与标普500的比率已被拉低（由于纳斯达克表现不佳加上价值股走强），目前正处于网络泡沫峰值水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4617081a74b98cbab2c1287942cb9e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"357\">Picking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"<blockquote>拉里·麦克唐纳(Larry McDonald)在周末最新的《熊陷阱》报告中看到了这张图表，写道：“我们正处于一个极其重要的转折点”补充说“全球第一和第二流动性最强、可以说是最重要的股指正在发出重要的轮动信号。我们认为，科技股和成长股的优异表现已经结束，向价值股和大宗商品股的轮动已经开始。”</blockquote> AsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.<blockquote>正如彭博社指出的那样，虽然最近的单日上涨（周二上涨4%，周四上涨2.4%）将纳斯达克100指数推升至四周以来的首次上涨，但它们并没有安抚人们的神经。毕竟，在下跌趋势中，大幅上涨的日子并不罕见。2000年，当市场开始为期三年的崩盘时，该指数有27个交易日上涨至少4%。相比之下，1999年有六天这样的日子，当时价格翻了一番。</blockquote> “The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"<blockquote>Marketfield Asset Management LLC首席执行官Michael Shaoul表示：“熊市的早期阶段通常会出现猛烈的反弹，最终重要的是反弹会持续多远，而不是它们在单个交易日内的移动速度。”越来越多的证据表明，科技行业最终放弃了其全球关键领导地位。”</blockquote> That’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value.<blockquote>这给任何经历过互联网泡沫破裂的人敲响了警钟。当时，当纳斯达克100指数于2000年3月开始下跌时，等权重标普500不断前进，直到14个月后才见顶——这表明资金正在从互联网泡沫中飙升的科技巨头手中转移。最终，纳斯达克100指数损失了一半的价值.</blockquote> “People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. “If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.” A rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.<blockquote>“人们不应该因为除了科技集团之外几乎所有其他公司都表现良好而感到安慰，”Miller Tabak+Co.首席市场策略师Matt Maley说道。“如果科技集团继续表现不佳，最终将给股市的其他部分带来压力。”根据鲍威尔周四的言论，成长股和科技股的轮动只会加速，特别是如果他听起来不够鸽派并再次惊动市场，引发另一场债券暴跌，这反过来意味着成长股的抛售——正如我们在之前的许多场合指出的那样——久期接近历史最高水平，因此只是对冲基金从未接触过的债券代理。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c176f70232a97f988ba92c84c6836d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"201\">However, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically5-year rates.<blockquote>然而，尽管在2月底的“通货再膨胀恐慌”抛售期间，所有人的目光都集中在10年期债券一旦突破1.50%，债券就会出现清算级联，但国债曲线上下一次清算级联可能开始的地方现在是腹部，因为正如彭博社所写，早在12月份，人们就认为美联储可能会压低长期国债收益率，而现在的问题在于短期国债收益率，特别是5年期利率。</blockquote> Yields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that theFed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.<blockquote>最近几周，该期限的收益率已变得不稳定，飙升至之前0.75%的“红线”之上，因为人们猜测美联储可能需要比官员们表示的提前一整年开始加息周期。这种转变还扰乱了通货再膨胀赌注经典迭代的前景，即5年期和30年期收益率之间的差距不断扩大，尽管刺激推动的复苏的说法才刚刚获得动力。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4be02c3e2224fb5edfb0e0ed77bcac\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\">\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.<blockquote>“美联储下周将不得不在违背市场预期或允许市场预期之间徘徊。”巴克莱全球国债交易联席主管凯文·沃尔特表示。如果没有美联储的抵制，“曲线腹部可能会有更多压力”，在这种情况下，最好的陡峭化因素将是2年期国债收益率与5年期和7年期国债收益率之间的利差，随着交易员定价收紧，利差还有上升空间。</blockquote> And while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.<blockquote>尽管大多数投资银行研究部门，当然还有美联储，预计至少要到2023年才会出现任何提振，掉期市场反映出美联储在2022年底左右将利率从接近零的水平上调的可能性约为75%。事实上，沃尔特预计下周不会有重大政策变化，并预计官员们将在2023年之前继续维持利率不变，但在最近一轮通胀飙升的情况下，即使什么都不做也可能迫使另一轮抛售，这被视为市场的推动迫使鲍威尔进行某种形式的收益率曲线控制。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148711c8ea3822a0af209f086802c068\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"263\">On the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.<blockquote>美联储下周确实发出2023年加息信号的可能性很小，瑞穗国际(Mizuho International Plc)多资产策略主管Peter Chatwell表示，市场可能会将加息预期带入2022年上半年，1年期远期5年期利率可能会上调50个基点，在一封电子邮件中说。这还将导致从增长到价值的重新轮动，进一步压低上面显示的纳斯达克到SPX的图表。</blockquote> That said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.<blockquote>也就是说，大多数人预计鲍威尔不会解决长期或最近的腹部持续抛售问题——这位美联储主席只略微提及了推动10年期国债收益率突破1.6%的债券市场暴跌。他强调了金融状况的重要性，尽管随着收益率飙升，科技股周五确实下跌，但金融状况仍然宽松。</blockquote> None of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.<blockquote>这些都无助于缓解通胀担忧，因为市场担心美联储正在迅速落后于曲线。正如我们上周指出的，5年期通胀预期达到2008年以来的最高水平以及强劲的就业数据只会强化人们对美联储需要比预期更快收紧政策的押注。这种猜测挤压了对5年至30年更陡峭曲线的押注，将利差从2月份的6年多高点167个基点缩小至略高于150个基点。5年期国债收益率为0.84%，远低于去年以来的最高水平。但与此同时，由于美联储将在不久的将来将利率维持在接近零的水平，2年期国债仍接近历史低点。这使得人们对广受关注的10年期利率利差以及与5年期和7年期等其他期限利率利差的押注继续发挥作用。</blockquote> And with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.<blockquote>随着前端锚定很长很长一段时间，问题就变成了什么是最有利可图的陡峭交易。Incapital高级交易员兼首席市场策略师帕特里克·利里(Patrick Leary)表示：“有些陡峭化者比其他者更好。”他预计2s10s将继续扩大，但已在陡峭的地方获利了结，并正在寻找更好的重新进入点。其他人则看到了5至30年陡峭时期的潜力。道明证券(TD Securities)建议以146.5个基点入场，目标为170个基点，理由是加息的门槛很高以及息票供应增加的前景。</blockquote> Taking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.<blockquote>退一步说，交易员之所以如此关注曲线的5年期部分，即“腹部”，是因为如果加息投机进一步加剧，它被视为可能首当其冲遭受任何后续抛售的地方，因为大部分起飞制度预计将在现在发行的5年期票据到期后发生。</blockquote> Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.In swaptions,a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis.<blockquote>此外，正如彭博社指出的那样，市场的某些角落已经将注意力转向多次加息的可能性。在掉期期权中，巴克莱银行的分析显示，美联储的目标是到2025年3月加息七到八次.</blockquote> There is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.<blockquote>当然，市场存在超前的风险——这就是美国银行最近发布的RIC报告的全部要点，该报告认为任何地方都没有足够的持续通胀来证明2022年加息是合理的，更不用说到2025年加息7次了：Insight Investment美国交易主管杰米·安德森(Jamie Anderson)表示，“市场可能有点超前了”，导致5年期利率上涨过多。他表示，如果数据疲软或美联储按兵不动的时间长于预期，“腹部应该会反弹，曲线会重新变陡”。</blockquote> For Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.<blockquote>对于Incapital的Leary来说，5s30差距的缩小是因为官员们可能会在下周讨论甚至宣布一个转折。他表示，这种操作涉及出售短期资产并购买长期资产以控制收益率，将给腹部带来更大压力。此前，欧洲央行决定加快债券购买步伐。</blockquote> “All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"<blockquote>Leary表示：“所有这些交易都高度依赖美联储保持观望，不改变政策立场。”“市场肯定是在和美联储玩一场吃鸡的游戏，在收紧金融状况并迫使美联储介入之前，测试收益率能达到多高。”</blockquote> Meanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.<blockquote>与此同时，尽管一些策略师无视成长型股票的收益率风险，声称随着时间的推移，科技股与美国国债的关系变化无常，但Ned Davis Research首席全球宏观策略师Joe Kalish表示，研究发现，自2014年以来，纳斯达克100指数的远期收益率（市盈率的倒数，市盈率越高，股票越便宜）几乎与预测的公司债券利率同步变动。</blockquote> In his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario wherethe Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.<blockquote>在他的模型中，如果10年期美国国债收益率今年升至2%，这反过来可能会将长期Baa评级债券利率推至4.5%，在这种情况下在其他条件相同的情况下，纳斯达克100指数必须下跌20%才能保持吸引力。卡利什表示，如果收益率攀升但纳斯达克没有变动，这将表明估值过高，并补充说他的模型在1987年和2000年正确地发出了警告。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e1270022eb5742b2cf2a7c328a5d897\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"380\">Also keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>另请记住，即使在最近下跌之后，纳斯达克100指数的市盈率（28）相对于其他股票来说也远不便宜，比标普500溢价7%。</blockquote> Finally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&amp;P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.<blockquote>最后，随着航空公司和汽车制造商等遭受大流行打击的公司卷土重来，自2009年以来除一年外一直维持科技股优异表现的增长优势即将消失——至少在未来两年是这样。软件和互联网公司的利润预计今年将增长22%，2022年将增长12%。两者都落后于广泛的标普500，后者的盈利预计分别增长24%和15%。</blockquote> So going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.<blockquote>Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示，回到顶部图表，随着纳斯达克100指数即将达到相对峰值，不考虑下行风险将是一个错误。</blockquote> “New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”<blockquote>“新时代投资正处于一个重要的十字路口，”他说。“在纳斯达克和科技股长期普遍表现出色之后，预计将出现一个表现不佳、整合甚至彻底崩溃的阶段并非没有道理。”</blockquote> If all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:<blockquote>如果这一切听起来不必要地令人费解，我们提醒您荷兰合作银行的迈克尔·埃弗里(Michael Everyevery)一夜之间所说的话，这可能是对美联储选择的最佳总结：</blockquote> \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down). As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\" In short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chairdoesn'tdo anything, and damned if he&nbsp;does...<blockquote>“如果鲍威尔什么都不做，我们可能会处于2013年式的缩减恐慌的边缘。这将给包括东京在内的世界各地的市场带来哥斯拉大小的冲击波。（我现在想起了1970/80年代的英国电视广告，一个模拟zilla会吃掉著名的全球地标，然后决定他更喜欢某种糖果“甚至比Barrow-in-Furness公交车站更有嚼劲。”）“当然，鲍威尔可以说些什么或做些什么：扭曲和呼喊行动；或者YCC。首先，这将表明财政部和美联储之间存在脱节，这并不理想。此外，这些措施将促使市场出现重大扁平化，但有两种不同的类型（短端上升和长端下降；或者只是长端向下）。正如我在这里不断重复的那样，YCC也会为一些全新的史诗冒险打开大门，比如打开神秘的巨门，金刚在他的偏远岛屿上被发现。”简而言之，为周四的波动做好准备，届时鲍威尔（和科技股多头）将受到诅咒，如果美联储主席不是做任何事，如果他是的...</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-sitting-incredibly-important-turning-point\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-sitting-incredibly-important-turning-point","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127134490","content_text":"Last week in hislatest Doubleline webcast, Jeff Gundlach presented a remarkable chart, one showing that the ratio of the Nasdaq to the S&P 500 has been pulled lower (due to Nasdaq underperformance coupled with strength in value stocks) and is now right on its dot com bubble peak levels.\nPicking up on this chart, over the weekend in his latestBear Traps Report, Larry McDonald wrote that \"we are sitting on an incredibly important turning point\"adding that \"the world’s first and second most liquid and arguably most important stock indices are sending important rotation signals.In our view, both tech and growth equities outperformance run is over and the rotation to value and commodity exposed equities has begun.\"\nAsBloomberg notes, while recent single-day rallies (4% on Tuesday and 2.4% on Thursday) lifted the Nasdaq 100 to its first gain in four weeks, they’re not calming nerves. After all, big up days are not uncommon during a downtrend.In 2000, when the market started a three-year crash, the index had 27 sessions where it rose at least 4%. That compared with six such days in 1999, when prices doubled.\n“The early stages of a bear market is typically punctuated by ferocious rallies, and what matters in the end is how far the rallies extend and not how quickly they move within a single session,” said Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC. “Evidence continues to mount that the technology sector has finally relinquished its position as key global leadership.\"\nThat’s raising alarms for anyone who lived through the dot-com crash. Back then, when the Nasdaq 100 started falling in March 2000, the equal-weighted S&P 500 kept marching forward and didn’t peak until 14 months later -- a sign that money was being shifted away from the tech behemoths that soared in the internet bubble.Ultimately, the Nasdaq 100 lost half of its value.\n\n“People should not take solace in the fact that almost everything else besides the tech group is acting well,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.\n “If the tech group continues to underperform, it’s going to weigh on the rest of the stock market eventually.”\n\nA rotation out of growth and tech will only accelerate depending on what Powell says on Thursday, especially if he doesn't sound sufficient dovish and spooks markets again, triggering another bond rout, which by extension means a selloff in growth stocks which - as we have noted on many previous occasions -have near record high duration and are thus merely bond proxies to which hedge funds have never been more exposed.\nHowever, while all eyes were on the 10-Year during the late February \"reflation panic\" selloff which was sparked by a liquidation cascade in bonds once the 10Y breached 1.50%, the place on the Treasury curve where the next liquidation cascade could begin is now the belly, because asBloomberg writeswhereas back in December the thought was that the Federal Reserve might tamp down long-term Treasury yields, the issue now lies with shorter-dated ones, and specifically5-year rates.\nYields on that maturity have become unanchored in recent weeks, surging above the previous \"red line\" of 0.75% amid speculation that theFed will need to start a cycle of rate hikes perhaps a full year earlier than officials have indicated.That shift has also roiled the outlook for a classic iteration of the reflation wager, a widening gap between 5- and 30-year yields, even as the narrative of a stimulus-fueled recovery has only gained momentum.\n\"The Fed next week will have to walk a fine line between either pushing back against market expectations or allowing them to stand,\"said Kevin Walter, co-head of global Treasuries trading for Barclays. Without Fed pushback \"there might be more pressure on the belly of the curve,\" in which case the best steepeners would be the spreads between 2-year yields versus 5- and 7-year rates that have room to rise as traders price in tightening.\nAnd while most investment bank research divisions, and certainly the Fed, do not expect any liftoff until at least 2023,the swaps market has been reflecting a roughly 75% chance the Fed lifts rates from near zero by around the end of 2022.Indeed, Walter expects no major policy changes next week and anticipates that officials will continue to project rates on hold through 2023, however even doing nothing may force another round of selling amid the recent bout of soaring inflation, one seen as a push by the market to force Powell into some form of Yield Curve Control.\nOn the remote chance that the Fed does signal some 2023 hikes next week,the market will probably bring expectations for rate increases into the first half of 2022 and the 1-year-forward 5-year rate could increase 50 basis points, Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy for Mizuho International Plc,said in an emailed note. It would also lead to renewed rotation out of growth and into value, further depressing the Nasdaq to SPX chart shown above.\nThat said, most don't expect Powell to address the continued selling in either the long-end or more recently, the belly - the Fed chair gave only a minor reference to the bond-market slump that drove 10-year yields above 1.6%. He emphasized the importance of financial conditions, which remain accommodative, although tech stocks did sink on Friday as yields surged.\nNone of this will help ease inflation fears as the market fears the Fed is rapidly falling behind the curve. As we noted last week, 5Y inflation expectations at the highest since 2008 and robust jobs data have only reinforced bets that the Fed will need to tighten more quickly than it’s been forecasting. The speculation has squeezed wagers on a steeper curve from 5 to 30 years, shrinking that spread to a bit above 150 basis points, from a more than 6-year high of 167 in February. The 5-year yield at 0.84% isn’t far below its highest level since last year. But at the same time, the 2-year has remained near historic lows on the view that the Fed will hold rates near zero for the immediate future. That’s kept bets on the widely watched spread to the 10-year rate in play, as well as versus other maturities, such as the 5- and 7-year.\nAnd with the front-end anchored for a long, long time, the question then becomes what is the most lucrative steepener trade. “Some steepeners are better than others,” said Patrick Leary, senior trader and chief market strategist for Incapital. He expects the 2s10s to keep widening, but has taken profits on steepeners and is looking for a better point to re-enter. Other see potential in the 5- to 30-year steepener. TD Securities has recommended entering that bet at 146.5 basis points, targeting 170, based on what it said was a high bar for hikes and the prospect of elevated coupon supply.\nTaking a step back, the reason why traders have been so focused on the 5-year part of the curve, i.e., \"the belly\", is because it’s seen as one place that may bear the brunt of any subsequent selloff should rate-hike speculation mount further, since the bulk of the liftoff regime is expected to take place within the maturity of a 5 Year note issued now.\nFurthermore, as Bloomberg notes already certain corners of the market are turning their attention to the potential for multiple rate hikes.In swaptions,a position has emerged targeting the Fed to hike seven to eight times by March 2025, according to a Barclays analysis.\nThere is, of course, the risk that markets have gotten ahead of themselves - the whole point of a recent RIC report from BofA, which does not see anywhere nearly enough sustained inflation to justify a 2022 rate hike, let alone 7 by 2025: “it’s possible the market may have gotten a little ahead of itself in the belly,” causing the 5-year rate to rise too much, said Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment. If the data come in weak or the Fed is on hold for longer than expected, “the belly should rally and the curve re-steepen,” he said.\nFor Incapital’s Leary, the narrowing in the 5s30s gap came on the view that officials may discuss - or even announce - a twist next week. Such an operation, involving the sale of shorter-dated holdings and purchase of longer maturities to control yields, would put more pressure on the belly, he says. That would follow the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its bond-buying pace.\n“All these trades are highly dependent on the Fed being on the sidelines and not changing its policy stance,” Leary said.“The market is definitely playing a game of chicken with the Fed, by testing how high yields can get before tightening financial conditions and forcing the Fed to step in.\"\nMeanwhile, even as some strategists have brushed aside the yield risk for growth stocks, claiming that tech has shown a fickle relationship with Treasuries over time, Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research,found that since 2014, the Nasdaq 100’s forward earnings yield - the inverse of its price-earnings ratio where the higher it is, the cheaper stocks are - has moved almost in lockstep with forecast corporate bond rates.\nIn his model, if 10-year Treasury yields rise to 2% this year, that in turn could drive long-term Baa-rated bond rates to 4.5%, a scenario wherethe Nasdaq 100 would have to drop as much as 20% to stay attractive, all else equal.If yields climbed but the Nasdaq didn’t move, this would indicate over-valuation, Kalish said, adding his model correctly flashed warnings in 1987 and 2000.\nAlso keep in mind that even after the recent drop, the price-earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 - at 28 - is nowhere near cheap relative to other stocks, and is a 7% premium over the S&P 500.\nFinally, the growth advantage that has sustained tech’s outperformance in all but one year since 2009 is poised to disappear - at least for the next two years - as pandemic-beaten firms like airlines and automakers roar back. Profits from software and internet companies are expected to expand 22% this year and 12% in 2022. Both lag behind the broad S&P 500, where earnings are forecast to increase 24% and 15%, respectively.\nSo going back to the top chart, and with Nasdaq 100 knocking on the door of its relative peak, it’d be a mistake not to consider the downside risk, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group.\n“New-era investments are at a significant crossroads,” he said.“After a prolonged period of extensive outperformance by the Nasdaq and tech stocks, it is not unreasonable to foresee a phase of underperformance, consolidation or even an outright collapse.”\nIf all this sounds unnecessarily convoluted, we remind you of what Rabobank's Michael Everysaid overnight, in what may be the best summary of the Fed's options:\n\n \"If Powell does nothing, we could perhaps be on the verge of a 2013-style Taper Tantrum. That would send Godzilla-sized shockwaves through markets everywhere, including Tokyo. (And I now think of 1970/80’s British TV ads where a Mock-zilla would eat famous global landmarks before deciding he preferred a certain candy “even chewier than a Barrow-in-Furness bus depot.”) \"\"Of course, Powell could say something or do something: Operation Twist and Shout; or YCC. First of all, this would then show that there is a disconnect between the Treasury and the Fed, which is hardly ideal. Moreover, such steps would prompt a major market flattening, but of two different kinds (short end up and long end down; or just long end down).\n As I keep repeating here, YCC would also open the door for some seriously new epic adventures, like opening the mysterious giant gate behind which King Kong is found on his remote island.\"\n\nIn short, brace for a burst of volatility on Thursday when Powell (and tech stock bulls) will be damned if the Fed Chairdoesn'tdo anything, and damned if he does...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":36,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/325656335"}