$哔哩哔哩(BILI_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$$百度(BIDU)$$蔚来(NIO)$我就是那个从八倍到爆仓的稳健君，少帅老师分析的很到位！我是个互联网创业者，我最大的错误是用做生意的思维来做股票，创业讲究在对的时机ALL IN讲究人定天胜，但投资股票不是做生意，要敬畏市场先生，尊重趋势。认真看了每一个评论，感谢各位虎友关注

@少帅Pro：是什么，让一个人不到一年，从8倍收益到亏损80%？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

板上之云阿龙
2021-03-16
板上之云阿龙
慢慢来，千万不要气馁[握手][抱拳][比心]
- 稳健君:
  从不气馁，继续新的征途[握手][握手]
chaoshu
2021-03-16
chaoshu
你这个名字真是应景啊……
- 稳健君:
  相比下你的名字更让我胆寒[捂脸]
老当益壮铁树开花
2021-03-16
老当益壮铁树开花
讲真，稳健君这个头衔对于你的激进操作而言是不是有点讽刺？
- 老当益壮铁树开花回复稳健君:
  嘿嘿
- 稳健君:
  一般自己缺什么就会取什么样的名字
断水流师兄
2021-03-17
断水流师兄
思维惯性这方面纠正起来不那么容易，仓位控制是最后一道保险。
吐达洪
2021-03-17
吐达洪
🌹

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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3445338441498553\">@稳健君</a>&nbsp;老baby分享的他的故事：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/321747601?invite=WIQAS\" target=\"_blank\">从8倍的收益率到现在本金亏损80%</a>。我简述下过程：这位朋友研究了论坛里“动辄翻了10倍20倍的牛人”，结果找到了致富答案：期权。</p><p>于是，从2020年下半年开始，他开始买入<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>&nbsp;、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>&nbsp;和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;的看涨期权。接着，百度起飞，“手中的期权一个晚上就是100%的收益，当时感觉简直就是来股市捡钱来着。从此走上了一条不归路，我不再做正股，期权做久了感觉正股的收益太小了，<strong>于是全仓期权！</strong>”于是，创造了不到一年，盈利8倍的神话。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ae4f470c1a4063dbc5b57503019e24\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"386\"></p><p>接下来的故事你们大概猜到了，纳指进入3月份后连续几个大跌，在3月8号，纳指又一个暴跌后，他清仓了手中的看涨期权，转为买入看跌期权，结果，3月9日纳指反弹了3.69%，最终他亏损了80%多。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718bdfdba2c1e647c0d3a5d6fd3769ac\" tg-width=\"688\" 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target=\"_blank\">隔壁的老王</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;）。</p><p><strong>所以，他后来寻找了之前他学习的那些论坛“牛人”：“动辄10倍20倍的帖子，现在基本已经不发声了”。没错，你们会在论坛上看到很多神话，但是，他们绝大多数无法摆脱大脑形成的路径依赖，一段时间后，归为沉寂。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace8f00b45a12effd27833b2152ba062\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"352\"></p><p>现在最火爆的基金经理是谁？张坤。可能新股民们不知道当年如日中天的“公募一哥”王亚伟了，如果张坤是蔡徐坤的话，那么王亚伟就是张学友——前者只是现在火，后者是封了神的。为什么王亚伟创立了自己的私募后业绩平平？因为市场逻辑变了，而王亚伟形成了思维的路径依赖。</p><h2>三、如何行稳致远？</h2><p>其实就是不断地去学习，提升我们对市场的认知能力，以适应不断变化的形势，如此而已。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><h2>一、简述下这位老baby的过程</h2><p>看了<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3445338441498553\">@稳健君</a>&nbsp;老baby分享的他的故事：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/321747601?invite=WIQAS\" target=\"_blank\">从8倍的收益率到现在本金亏损80%</a>。我简述下过程：这位朋友研究了论坛里“动辄翻了10倍20倍的牛人”，结果找到了致富答案：期权。</p><p>于是，从2020年下半年开始，他开始买入<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>&nbsp;、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>&nbsp;和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;的看涨期权。接着，百度起飞，“手中的期权一个晚上就是100%的收益，当时感觉简直就是来股市捡钱来着。从此走上了一条不归路，我不再做正股，期权做久了感觉正股的收益太小了，<strong>于是全仓期权！</strong>”于是，创造了不到一年，盈利8倍的神话。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ae4f470c1a4063dbc5b57503019e24\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"386\"></p><p>接下来的故事你们大概猜到了，纳指进入3月份后连续几个大跌，在3月8号，纳指又一个暴跌后，他清仓了手中的看涨期权，转为买入看跌期权，结果，3月9日纳指反弹了3.69%，最终他亏损了80%多。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718bdfdba2c1e647c0d3a5d6fd3769ac\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"386\"></p><h2>二、我来分析分析，背后的原因是什么？</h2><p>首先，我不认为他是一个笨蛋。相反，看了原帖和他回复别人的话后，我觉得这是一位聪明、谦逊的朋友。有人说问题出在全仓了期权，买正股安全，他自己也认为是期权仓位的控制问题，但我觉得也不全是这个原因。<strong>真正的背后的原因是：思维的路径依赖。</strong></p><p>路径依赖（Path dependence）是指：因为人们过去做了某种选择，因此进入了某一路径，即便现在的情况可能已经发生了变化，但人们做决策时，仍然受制于其初始的选择。这个理论被很多经济学家来解释社会制度和经济制度的演进，其中就包括了诺贝尔经济学奖的获得者道格拉斯·诺斯于。</p><p>举个两个例子：</p><ol>\n <li>有的同学上学的时候成绩很好，是学霸。可是工作几年之后没有得到升职加薪。他想要改变，然而他选择的方法是：盲目地考证！什么CFA、剑桥商务英语、各种职业资格考试，他从一个学霸变为了盲学。结果是他大概率不会因为考证而发生大的变化，因为能够让一个人升职加薪的是综合能力，不再是考试能力。为什么他会继续考证？是他笨吗？不，是因为他当年靠着考试爬上人生巅峰的，形成了思维的路径依赖。</li>\n <li>有时候，我们看到纪委通报某个贪官的时候，会有这样一句描述：“十八大后仍不收手”。是这些官员蠢吗？他们在体制内难道感受不到十八大后政治风向变了吗？他们只是大脑产生了“过去就是这么贪腐没事”的路径依赖。</li>\n</ol><p>回到上文帖子作者的例子：当他买入看涨期权获得8倍收益的时候，大脑已经形成了路径依赖，在纳指一路下跌的情况下，他的行为是“一路跌一路买看涨期权”，此时他的大脑已经不可能接受别的思路了。最终在他情绪崩溃的那个晚上，选择了买入看跌期权，当时他已经完全被情绪左右，判断力为负值，自然没有好的结果（推荐看看被情绪左右，以至于做出极度不理智行为的的经典视频：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/326658072\" target=\"_blank\">隔壁的老王</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;）。</p><p><strong>所以，他后来寻找了之前他学习的那些论坛“牛人”：“动辄10倍20倍的帖子，现在基本已经不发声了”。没错，你们会在论坛上看到很多神话，但是，他们绝大多数无法摆脱大脑形成的路径依赖，一段时间后，归为沉寂。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace8f00b45a12effd27833b2152ba062\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"352\"></p><p>现在最火爆的基金经理是谁？张坤。可能新股民们不知道当年如日中天的“公募一哥”王亚伟了，如果张坤是蔡徐坤的话，那么王亚伟就是张学友——前者只是现在火，后者是封了神的。为什么王亚伟创立了自己的私募后业绩平平？因为市场逻辑变了，而王亚伟形成了思维的路径依赖。</p><h2>三、如何行稳致远？</h2><p>其实就是不断地去学习，提升我们对市场的认知能力，以适应不断变化的形势，如此而已。</p></body></html>","text":"一、简述下这位老baby的过程 看了@稳健君 老baby分享的他的故事：从8倍的收益率到现在本金亏损80%。我简述下过程：这位朋友研究了论坛里“动辄翻了10倍20倍的牛人”，结果找到了致富答案：期权。 于是，从2020年下半年开始，他开始买入$百度(BIDU)$ 、$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 和$蔚来(NIO)$ 的看涨期权。接着，百度起飞，“手中的期权一个晚上就是100%的收益，当时感觉简直就是来股市捡钱来着。从此走上了一条不归路，我不再做正股，期权做久了感觉正股的收益太小了，于是全仓期权！”于是，创造了不到一年，盈利8倍的神话。 接下来的故事你们大概猜到了，纳指进入3月份后连续几个大跌，在3月8号，纳指又一个暴跌后，他清仓了手中的看涨期权，转为买入看跌期权，结果，3月9日纳指反弹了3.69%，最终他亏损了80%多。 二、我来分析分析，背后的原因是什么？ 首先，我不认为他是一个笨蛋。相反，看了原帖和他回复别人的话后，我觉得这是一位聪明、谦逊的朋友。有人说问题出在全仓了期权，买正股安全，他自己也认为是期权仓位的控制问题，但我觉得也不全是这个原因。真正的背后的原因是：思维的路径依赖。 路径依赖（Path dependence）是指：因为人们过去做了某种选择，因此进入了某一路径，即便现在的情况可能已经发生了变化，但人们做决策时，仍然受制于其初始的选择。这个理论被很多经济学家来解释社会制度和经济制度的演进，其中就包括了诺贝尔经济学奖的获得者道格拉斯·诺斯于。 举个两个例子： 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