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2021-03-14

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Is there a new commodity supercycle? Maybe not, these analysts say.<blockquote>是否出现新的大宗商品超级周期？这些分析师说，也许不会。</blockquote>

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Maybe not, these analysts say.<blockquote>是否出现新的大宗商品超级周期？这些分析师说，也许不会。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170039440","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Commodity prices — across food, energy and metals — are undeniably rising.\nOil is up 95% from its Ma","content":"Commodity prices — across food, energy and metals — are undeniably rising.<blockquote>不可否认，包括食品、能源和金属在内的大宗商品价格正在上涨。</blockquote> Oil&nbsp;is up 95% from its March 2020 lows, and copper&nbsp;has surged 91% from its depths. Corn futures&nbsp;have gained 47% over the last 12 months.<blockquote>油价较2020年3月低点上涨95%，铜价较低点飙升91%。玉米期货在过去12个月中上涨了47%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5a59c1e1676673dbdf8f33209e137\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"658\"><blockquote></blockquote> That has led to talk of a supercycle, an upward price cycle of commodities lasting decades, and outlasting the typical economic cycle. There have generally been thought to have been four supercycles in the last 100 years, with the last one starting in 1996 and ending in 2008.<blockquote>这导致了超级周期的讨论，即持续数十年的大宗商品价格上涨周期，持续时间超过了典型的经济周期。一般认为在过去的100年里有四次超级周期，最后一次从1996年开始，到2008年结束。</blockquote> There have been analysts, including highly regarded JPMorgan quantitative strategist Marko Kolanovic,who say the beginning of a fifth supercycle has started.<blockquote>包括备受尊敬的摩根大通量化策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇在内的分析师表示，第五个超级周期已经开始。</blockquote> A few broker notes this week have pushed back on that idea. Analysts at Liberum Capital led by Tom Price aren’t buying the supercycle idea. “Rising consumption rates across Asia, the Americas and Europe are probably only normalizing from their lockdown lows. There is no evidence that they are now exceeding levels reported pre-virus,” said Price.<blockquote>本周的一些经纪人报告反驳了这一想法。以白梓轩为首的Liberum Capital分析师并不认同超级周期的想法。普莱斯表示：“亚洲、美洲和欧洲的消费率上升可能只是从封锁低点恢复正常。没有证据表明它们现在超过了病毒爆发前报告的水平。”</blockquote> Importantly, there aren’t reports of major materials-intensive projects being rolled out in any of the major economies. Fast-growing China, in fact,is talking of withdrawing stimulus.<blockquote>重要的是，没有任何主要经济体正在推出重大材料密集型项目的报道。事实上，快速增长的中国正在谈论撤回刺激措施。</blockquote> HSBC’s Paul Bloxham, the chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities, also isn’t buying the supercycle talk.<blockquote>汇丰银行澳大利亚、新西兰和全球大宗商品首席经济学家保罗·布洛克瑟姆(Paul Bloxham)也不相信超级周期的说法。</blockquote> Bloxham points out that as economies reopen, spending may shift back to services from the goods — like personal electronics — that require metals. He also noted that China is in a different stage of development.<blockquote>布洛克瑟姆指出，随着经济重新开放，支出可能会从需要金属的商品（如个人电子产品）转向服务业。他还指出，中国正处于一个不同的发展阶段。</blockquote> But what of infrastructure spending plans from the European Union, and proposals from the Biden administration? “Both of these are substantial and could clearly underpin demand for metals,” he said. But, much of the demand for metals used in developed-market construction comes from recycled materials.<blockquote>但欧盟的基础设施支出计划和拜登政府的提议又如何呢？“这两者都很重要，显然可以支撑对金属的需求，”他表示。但是，发达市场建筑中使用的金属需求大部分来自回收材料。</blockquote> “The key exception to this is likely to be increased electrification, particularly of motor vehicles, which requires new electrical networks. We see the battery-related commodities, including copper, as likely to benefit,” he said.<blockquote>“其中的主要例外可能是电气化程度的提高，特别是机动车辆，这需要新的电网。我们认为包括铜在内的电池相关商品可能会受益，”他说。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is there a new commodity supercycle? Maybe not, these analysts say.<blockquote>是否出现新的大宗商品超级周期？这些分析师说，也许不会。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs there a new commodity supercycle? Maybe not, these analysts say.<blockquote>是否出现新的大宗商品超级周期？这些分析师说，也许不会。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-03-12 21:16\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nCommodity prices — across food, energy and metals — are undeniably rising.<blockquote>不可否认，包括食品、能源和金属在内的大宗商品价格正在上涨。</blockquote> Oil&nbsp;is up 95% from its March 2020 lows, and copper&nbsp;has surged 91% from its depths. Corn futures&nbsp;have gained 47% over the last 12 months.<blockquote>油价较2020年3月低点上涨95%，铜价较低点飙升91%。玉米期货在过去12个月中上涨了47%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a5a59c1e1676673dbdf8f33209e137\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"658\"><blockquote></blockquote> That has led to talk of a supercycle, an upward price cycle of commodities lasting decades, and outlasting the typical economic cycle. There have generally been thought to have been four supercycles in the last 100 years, with the last one starting in 1996 and ending in 2008.<blockquote>这导致了超级周期的讨论，即持续数十年的大宗商品价格上涨周期，持续时间超过了典型的经济周期。一般认为在过去的100年里有四次超级周期，最后一次从1996年开始，到2008年结束。</blockquote> There have been analysts, including highly regarded JPMorgan quantitative strategist Marko Kolanovic,who say the beginning of a fifth supercycle has started.<blockquote>包括备受尊敬的摩根大通量化策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇在内的分析师表示，第五个超级周期已经开始。</blockquote> A few broker notes this week have pushed back on that idea. Analysts at Liberum Capital led by Tom Price aren’t buying the supercycle idea. “Rising consumption rates across Asia, the Americas and Europe are probably only normalizing from their lockdown lows. There is no evidence that they are now exceeding levels reported pre-virus,” said Price.<blockquote>本周的一些经纪人报告反驳了这一想法。以白梓轩为首的Liberum Capital分析师并不认同超级周期的想法。普莱斯表示：“亚洲、美洲和欧洲的消费率上升可能只是从封锁低点恢复正常。没有证据表明它们现在超过了病毒爆发前报告的水平。”</blockquote> Importantly, there aren’t reports of major materials-intensive projects being rolled out in any of the major economies. Fast-growing China, in fact,is talking of withdrawing stimulus.<blockquote>重要的是，没有任何主要经济体正在推出重大材料密集型项目的报道。事实上，快速增长的中国正在谈论撤回刺激措施。</blockquote> HSBC’s Paul Bloxham, the chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities, also isn’t buying the supercycle talk.<blockquote>汇丰银行澳大利亚、新西兰和全球大宗商品首席经济学家保罗·布洛克瑟姆(Paul Bloxham)也不相信超级周期的说法。</blockquote> Bloxham points out that as economies reopen, spending may shift back to services from the goods — like personal electronics — that require metals. He also noted that China is in a different stage of development.<blockquote>布洛克瑟姆指出，随着经济重新开放，支出可能会从需要金属的商品（如个人电子产品）转向服务业。他还指出，中国正处于一个不同的发展阶段。</blockquote> But what of infrastructure spending plans from the European Union, and proposals from the Biden administration? “Both of these are substantial and could clearly underpin demand for metals,” he said. But, much of the demand for metals used in developed-market construction comes from recycled materials.<blockquote>但欧盟的基础设施支出计划和拜登政府的提议又如何呢？“这两者都很重要，显然可以支撑对金属的需求，”他表示。但是，发达市场建筑中使用的金属需求大部分来自回收材料。</blockquote> “The key exception to this is likely to be increased electrification, particularly of motor vehicles, which requires new electrical networks. We see the battery-related commodities, including copper, as likely to benefit,” he said.<blockquote>“其中的主要例外可能是电气化程度的提高，特别是机动车辆，这需要新的电网。我们认为包括铜在内的电池相关商品可能会受益，”他说。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-there-a-new-commodity-supercycle-why-2-analysts-say-no-11615467520?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-there-a-new-commodity-supercycle-why-2-analysts-say-no-11615467520?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1170039440","content_text":"Commodity prices — across food, energy and metals — are undeniably rising.\nOil is up 95% from its March 2020 lows, and copper has surged 91% from its depths. Corn futures have gained 47% over the last 12 months.\n\nThat has led to talk of a supercycle, an upward price cycle of commodities lasting decades, and outlasting the typical economic cycle. There have generally been thought to have been four supercycles in the last 100 years, with the last one starting in 1996 and ending in 2008.\nThere have been analysts, including highly regarded JPMorgan quantitative strategist Marko Kolanovic,who say the beginning of a fifth supercycle has started.\nA few broker notes this week have pushed back on that idea. Analysts at Liberum Capital led by Tom Price aren’t buying the supercycle idea. “Rising consumption rates across Asia, the Americas and Europe are probably only normalizing from their lockdown lows. There is no evidence that they are now exceeding levels reported pre-virus,” said Price.\nImportantly, there aren’t reports of major materials-intensive projects being rolled out in any of the major economies. Fast-growing China, in fact,is talking of withdrawing stimulus.\nHSBC’s Paul Bloxham, the chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities, also isn’t buying the supercycle talk.\nBloxham points out that as economies reopen, spending may shift back to services from the goods — like personal electronics — that require metals. He also noted that China is in a different stage of development.\nBut what of infrastructure spending plans from the European Union, and proposals from the Biden administration? “Both of these are substantial and could clearly underpin demand for metals,” he said. But, much of the demand for metals used in developed-market construction comes from recycled materials.\n“The key exception to this is likely to be increased electrification, particularly of motor vehicles, which requires new electrical networks. We see the battery-related commodities, including copper, as likely to benefit,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1327,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":24,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/326418321"}