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2021-03-18

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Looking Ahead to Q1 2021 Earnings Season<blockquote>展望2021年第一季度财报季</blockquote>

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We expect this favorable revisions trend to accelerate in the coming months as start looking past the pandemic.</li> <li>The positive revisions trend is broad-based, with Q1 estimates for 10 of the 16 Zacks sectors going up over the last three months, with estimates for the Autos and Energy sectors more than doubling over that time period.</li> <li>Other sectors experiencing positive estimate revisions include Basic Materials, Construction, Industrial Products, Technology and Finance.</li> <li>On the negative side, estimates have come down the most for the Transportation sector, with the Consumer Discretionary and Aerospace sectors also suffering estimate cuts.</li> <li>The sectors with positive earnings growth in Q1 include: Finance (+45.9% earnings growth), Technology (+21.8%), Autos (+200.6%), Retail (+40.1%), Medical (+16.2%), Basic Materials (+65.7%), Construction (+37%), and Industrial Products (+22.4%)</li> <li>The weakest earnings growth in Q1 is expected to come from the Transportation (-161.9% earnings decline), Consumer Discretionary (-36%), and Energy (-7.9%).</li> <li>For the Finance sector, Q1 earnings are expected to be up +45.9% on +1.1% higher revenues, as the group’s year-earlier results were dragged down by big loan-loss reserves at the banks as the pandemic got underway.</li> <li>For the Technology sector, Q1 earnings are expected to be up +21.8% from the same period last year on +17% higher revenues.</li> <li>Looking at the calendar-year picture for the S&amp;P 500 index, earnings are projected to climb +24.3% on +8.7% higher revenues in 2021 and increase +14.9% on +6.5% higher revenues in 2022. This would follow a decline of -13.2% in 2020 on -2.2% lower revenues.</li> <li>The implied ‘EPS’ for the S&amp;P 500 index, calculated using current 2021 P/E of 23.5X and index close, as of March 16th, is $168.98, up from $135.89 in 2020. Using the same methodology, the index ‘EPS’ works out to $194.11 for 2022 (P/E of 20.4X). The multiples have been calculated using the index’s total market cap and aggregate bottom-up earnings for each year.</li> </ul> Favorable Revision Trend<blockquote><ul><li>整体盈利状况继续改善，我们强烈认为，随着夏季的临近以及经济大幅反弹的迹象出现，这一趋势将会加速。</li><li>目前预计2021年第一季度总收益将比去年同期增长+19.3%，收入增长+5.3%，简单的比较和许多行业的强劲增长相结合，使我们实现了增长反弹。</li><li>对当前和未来几个季度的预期稳步上升，这一趋势自去年夏天以来一直存在。我们预计，随着人们开始关注疫情，这种有利的修正趋势将在未来几个月加速。</li><li>积极的修正趋势是广泛的，16个Zacks行业中有10个行业的第一季度预估在过去三个月中有所上升，其中汽车和能源行业的预估在此期间增加了一倍多。</li><li>其他经历积极预估修正的行业包括基础材料、建筑、工业产品、科技和金融。</li><li>不利的一面是，交通运输行业的预期下降幅度最大，非必需消费品和航空航天行业的预期也遭到下调。</li><li>Q1盈利正增长的行业包括：金融（+45.9%盈利增长）、科技（+21.8%）、汽车（+200.6%）、零售（+40.1%）、医疗（+16.2%）、基础材料（+65.7%）、建筑（+37%）和工业产品（+22.4%）</li><li>第一季度盈利增长最弱的预计来自交通运输（盈利下降-161.9%）、非必需消费品（-36%）和能源（-7.9%）。</li><li>对于金融行业，第一季度盈利预计将增长+45.9%，收入增长+1.1%，因为该集团去年同期业绩受到疫情爆发后银行巨额贷款损失准备金的拖累。</li><li>对于科技行业，第一季度盈利预计将比去年同期增长21.8%，收入增长17%。</li><li>从标普500指数的日历年情况来看，预计2021年收入增长+8.7%，盈利增长+24.3%，2022年收入增长+6.5%，盈利增长+14.9%。此前，2020年收入下降了-13.2%，收入下降了-2.2%。</li><li>截至3月16日，使用当前2021年市盈率23.5倍和指数收盘价计算，标普500指数的隐含“每股收益”为168.98美元，高于2020年的135.89美元。使用相同的方法，2022年指数“每股收益”为194.11美元（市盈率为20.4倍）。这些倍数是使用该指数每年的总市值和自下而上的总收益计算的。</li></ul>有利的修订趋势</blockquote> Regular readers of our earnings commentary know that the revisions trend lately has been positive. In fact, we flagged the shift in the revisions trend effectively in real time in July 2020, as the economy started coming out of the pandemic-driven lockdowns.<blockquote>我们收益评论的老读者都知道，最近的修正趋势是积极的。事实上，随着经济开始走出大流行驱动的封锁，我们在2020年7月有效地实时标记了修正趋势的转变。</blockquote> This favorable trend continued with respect to estimates for the first quarter of 2021, as the chart below shows.<blockquote>如下图所示，就2021年第一季度的估计而言，这一有利趋势仍在继续。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85fc864156fa2803570903109ca9dccd\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"413\"><blockquote></blockquote> Estimates have gone up the most the Energy and Autos sectors, with Q1 earnings estimates for these two sectors more than doubling over the last three months. You can see this pronounced positive revisions trend in estimates for Exxon , Chevron , Ford&nbsp;and others from these two sectors.<blockquote>能源和汽车行业的预期增幅最大，这两个行业的第一季度盈利预期在过去三个月中增加了一倍多。您可以在埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、福特和这两个行业的其他公司的预估中看到这种明显的积极修正趋势。</blockquote> We expect the favorable revisions trend to gain pace as companies start reporting Q1 results in mid-April and share what they see as trends in underlying conditions.<blockquote>我们预计，随着公司在4月中旬开始报告第一季度业绩并分享他们所认为的基本状况趋势，有利的修正趋势将会加快。</blockquote> The chart below provides a big-picture view of earnings on a quarterly basis.<blockquote>下图提供了季度收益的概况。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31f8f41b5d28ffebcbedcdfee4543b6d\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"338\"><blockquote></blockquote> We remain positive in our earnings outlook, as we see the full-year 2021 growth picture steadily improving through the first half of the year as more of the population&nbsp;gets vaccinated.<blockquote>我们对盈利前景保持乐观，因为我们看到随着更多人口接种疫苗，2021年全年增长前景将在上半年稳步改善。</blockquote> The chart below shows the overall earnings picture on an annual basis.<blockquote>下图显示了年度整体盈利情况。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e4968cf186742f83f7a3a5937fa912\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"360\"><blockquote></blockquote> The flow of recent economic readings about the retail spending, housing starts, and the factory space suggest that activity levels moderated in February, likely reflecting unusual weather and the lingering effects on the pandemic. But with the extraordinary vaccination effort steadily gaining pace and new stimulus checks heading out, it is reasonable to expect the economic growth trend to turn around meaningfully in the coming days.<blockquote>最近关于零售支出、新屋开工和工厂空间的经济数据表明，2月份的活动水平有所放缓，这可能反映了不寻常的天气和对疫情的挥之不去的影响。但随着非同寻常的疫苗接种工作稳步加快，新的刺激措施出台，有理由预计经济增长趋势将在未来几天出现有意义的转变。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Looking Ahead to Q1 2021 Earnings Season<blockquote>展望2021年第一季度财报季</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLooking Ahead to Q1 2021 Earnings Season<blockquote>展望2021年第一季度财报季</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nZacks2021-03-18 16:13\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nHere are the key points:<blockquote>以下是重点：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The overall earnings picture continues to improve, a trend that we strongly feel will accelerate as we move towards the Summer months and signs of a sharp economic rebound emerge.</li> <li>Total 2021 Q1 earnings are currently expected to be up +19.3% from the same period last year on +5.3% higher revenues, with a combination of easy comparisons and strong gains in a number of sectors giving us the growth rebound.</li> <li>Estimates for the current and coming quarters have steadily gone up, a trend that has been in place since last Summer. We expect this favorable revisions trend to accelerate in the coming months as start looking past the pandemic.</li> <li>The positive revisions trend is broad-based, with Q1 estimates for 10 of the 16 Zacks sectors going up over the last three months, with estimates for the Autos and Energy sectors more than doubling over that time period.</li> <li>Other sectors experiencing positive estimate revisions include Basic Materials, Construction, Industrial Products, Technology and Finance.</li> <li>On the negative side, estimates have come down the most for the Transportation sector, with the Consumer Discretionary and Aerospace sectors also suffering estimate cuts.</li> <li>The sectors with positive earnings growth in Q1 include: Finance (+45.9% earnings growth), Technology (+21.8%), Autos (+200.6%), Retail (+40.1%), Medical (+16.2%), Basic Materials (+65.7%), Construction (+37%), and Industrial Products (+22.4%)</li> <li>The weakest earnings growth in Q1 is expected to come from the Transportation (-161.9% earnings decline), Consumer Discretionary (-36%), and Energy (-7.9%).</li> <li>For the Finance sector, Q1 earnings are expected to be up +45.9% on +1.1% higher revenues, as the group’s year-earlier results were dragged down by big loan-loss reserves at the banks as the pandemic got underway.</li> <li>For the Technology sector, Q1 earnings are expected to be up +21.8% from the same period last year on +17% higher revenues.</li> <li>Looking at the calendar-year picture for the S&amp;P 500 index, earnings are projected to climb +24.3% on +8.7% higher revenues in 2021 and increase +14.9% on +6.5% higher revenues in 2022. This would follow a decline of -13.2% in 2020 on -2.2% lower revenues.</li> <li>The implied ‘EPS’ for the S&amp;P 500 index, calculated using current 2021 P/E of 23.5X and index close, as of March 16th, is $168.98, up from $135.89 in 2020. Using the same methodology, the index ‘EPS’ works out to $194.11 for 2022 (P/E of 20.4X). The multiples have been calculated using the index’s total market cap and aggregate bottom-up earnings for each year.</li> </ul> Favorable Revision Trend<blockquote><ul><li>整体盈利状况继续改善，我们强烈认为，随着夏季的临近以及经济大幅反弹的迹象出现，这一趋势将会加速。</li><li>目前预计2021年第一季度总收益将比去年同期增长+19.3%，收入增长+5.3%，简单的比较和许多行业的强劲增长相结合，使我们实现了增长反弹。</li><li>对当前和未来几个季度的预期稳步上升，这一趋势自去年夏天以来一直存在。我们预计，随着人们开始关注疫情，这种有利的修正趋势将在未来几个月加速。</li><li>积极的修正趋势是广泛的，16个Zacks行业中有10个行业的第一季度预估在过去三个月中有所上升，其中汽车和能源行业的预估在此期间增加了一倍多。</li><li>其他经历积极预估修正的行业包括基础材料、建筑、工业产品、科技和金融。</li><li>不利的一面是，交通运输行业的预期下降幅度最大，非必需消费品和航空航天行业的预期也遭到下调。</li><li>Q1盈利正增长的行业包括：金融（+45.9%盈利增长）、科技（+21.8%）、汽车（+200.6%）、零售（+40.1%）、医疗（+16.2%）、基础材料（+65.7%）、建筑（+37%）和工业产品（+22.4%）</li><li>第一季度盈利增长最弱的预计来自交通运输（盈利下降-161.9%）、非必需消费品（-36%）和能源（-7.9%）。</li><li>对于金融行业，第一季度盈利预计将增长+45.9%，收入增长+1.1%，因为该集团去年同期业绩受到疫情爆发后银行巨额贷款损失准备金的拖累。</li><li>对于科技行业，第一季度盈利预计将比去年同期增长21.8%，收入增长17%。</li><li>从标普500指数的日历年情况来看，预计2021年收入增长+8.7%，盈利增长+24.3%，2022年收入增长+6.5%，盈利增长+14.9%。此前，2020年收入下降了-13.2%，收入下降了-2.2%。</li><li>截至3月16日，使用当前2021年市盈率23.5倍和指数收盘价计算，标普500指数的隐含“每股收益”为168.98美元，高于2020年的135.89美元。使用相同的方法，2022年指数“每股收益”为194.11美元（市盈率为20.4倍）。这些倍数是使用该指数每年的总市值和自下而上的总收益计算的。</li></ul>有利的修订趋势</blockquote> Regular readers of our earnings commentary know that the revisions trend lately has been positive. In fact, we flagged the shift in the revisions trend effectively in real time in July 2020, as the economy started coming out of the pandemic-driven lockdowns.<blockquote>我们收益评论的老读者都知道，最近的修正趋势是积极的。事实上，随着经济开始走出大流行驱动的封锁，我们在2020年7月有效地实时标记了修正趋势的转变。</blockquote> This favorable trend continued with respect to estimates for the first quarter of 2021, as the chart below shows.<blockquote>如下图所示，就2021年第一季度的估计而言，这一有利趋势仍在继续。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85fc864156fa2803570903109ca9dccd\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"413\"><blockquote></blockquote> Estimates have gone up the most the Energy and Autos sectors, with Q1 earnings estimates for these two sectors more than doubling over the last three months. You can see this pronounced positive revisions trend in estimates for Exxon , Chevron , Ford&nbsp;and others from these two sectors.<blockquote>能源和汽车行业的预期增幅最大，这两个行业的第一季度盈利预期在过去三个月中增加了一倍多。您可以在埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、福特和这两个行业的其他公司的预估中看到这种明显的积极修正趋势。</blockquote> We expect the favorable revisions trend to gain pace as companies start reporting Q1 results in mid-April and share what they see as trends in underlying conditions.<blockquote>我们预计，随着公司在4月中旬开始报告第一季度业绩并分享他们所认为的基本状况趋势，有利的修正趋势将会加快。</blockquote> The chart below provides a big-picture view of earnings on a quarterly basis.<blockquote>下图提供了季度收益的概况。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31f8f41b5d28ffebcbedcdfee4543b6d\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"338\"><blockquote></blockquote> We remain positive in our earnings outlook, as we see the full-year 2021 growth picture steadily improving through the first half of the year as more of the population&nbsp;gets vaccinated.<blockquote>我们对盈利前景保持乐观，因为我们看到随着更多人口接种疫苗，2021年全年增长前景将在上半年稳步改善。</blockquote> The chart below shows the overall earnings picture on an annual basis.<blockquote>下图显示了年度整体盈利情况。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e4968cf186742f83f7a3a5937fa912\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"360\"><blockquote></blockquote> The flow of recent economic readings about the retail spending, housing starts, and the factory space suggest that activity levels moderated in February, likely reflecting unusual weather and the lingering effects on the pandemic. But with the extraordinary vaccination effort steadily gaining pace and new stimulus checks heading out, it is reasonable to expect the economic growth trend to turn around meaningfully in the coming days.<blockquote>最近关于零售支出、新屋开工和工厂空间的经济数据表明，2月份的活动水平有所放缓，这可能反映了不寻常的天气和对疫情的挥之不去的影响。但随着非同寻常的疫苗接种工作稳步加快，新的刺激措施出台，有理由预计经济增长趋势将在未来几天出现有意义的转变。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1281663/looking-ahead-to-q1-2021-earnings-season?art_rec=home-home-trending_topics_latest-ID01-txt-1281663\">Zacks</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zacks.com/commentary/1281663/looking-ahead-to-q1-2021-earnings-season?art_rec=home-home-trending_topics_latest-ID01-txt-1281663","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135850467","content_text":"Here are the key points:\n\nThe overall earnings picture continues to improve, a trend that we strongly feel will accelerate as we move towards the Summer months and signs of a sharp economic rebound emerge.\nTotal 2021 Q1 earnings are currently expected to be up +19.3% from the same period last year on +5.3% higher revenues, with a combination of easy comparisons and strong gains in a number of sectors giving us the growth rebound.\nEstimates for the current and coming quarters have steadily gone up, a trend that has been in place since last Summer. We expect this favorable revisions trend to accelerate in the coming months as start looking past the pandemic.\nThe positive revisions trend is broad-based, with Q1 estimates for 10 of the 16 Zacks sectors going up over the last three months, with estimates for the Autos and Energy sectors more than doubling over that time period.\nOther sectors experiencing positive estimate revisions include Basic Materials, Construction, Industrial Products, Technology and Finance.\nOn the negative side, estimates have come down the most for the Transportation sector, with the Consumer Discretionary and Aerospace sectors also suffering estimate cuts.\nThe sectors with positive earnings growth in Q1 include: Finance (+45.9% earnings growth), Technology (+21.8%), Autos (+200.6%), Retail (+40.1%), Medical (+16.2%), Basic Materials (+65.7%), Construction (+37%), and Industrial Products (+22.4%)\nThe weakest earnings growth in Q1 is expected to come from the Transportation (-161.9% earnings decline), Consumer Discretionary (-36%), and Energy (-7.9%).\nFor the Finance sector, Q1 earnings are expected to be up +45.9% on +1.1% higher revenues, as the group’s year-earlier results were dragged down by big loan-loss reserves at the banks as the pandemic got underway.\nFor the Technology sector, Q1 earnings are expected to be up +21.8% from the same period last year on +17% higher revenues.\nLooking at the calendar-year picture for the S&P 500 index, earnings are projected to climb +24.3% on +8.7% higher revenues in 2021 and increase +14.9% on +6.5% higher revenues in 2022. This would follow a decline of -13.2% in 2020 on -2.2% lower revenues.\nThe implied ‘EPS’ for the S&P 500 index, calculated using current 2021 P/E of 23.5X and index close, as of March 16th, is $168.98, up from $135.89 in 2020. Using the same methodology, the index ‘EPS’ works out to $194.11 for 2022 (P/E of 20.4X). The multiples have been calculated using the index’s total market cap and aggregate bottom-up earnings for each year.\n\nFavorable Revision Trend\nRegular readers of our earnings commentary know that the revisions trend lately has been positive. In fact, we flagged the shift in the revisions trend effectively in real time in July 2020, as the economy started coming out of the pandemic-driven lockdowns.\nThis favorable trend continued with respect to estimates for the first quarter of 2021, as the chart below shows.\n\nEstimates have gone up the most the Energy and Autos sectors, with Q1 earnings estimates for these two sectors more than doubling over the last three months. You can see this pronounced positive revisions trend in estimates for Exxon , Chevron , Ford and others from these two sectors.\nWe expect the favorable revisions trend to gain pace as companies start reporting Q1 results in mid-April and share what they see as trends in underlying conditions.\nThe chart below provides a big-picture view of earnings on a quarterly basis.\n\nWe remain positive in our earnings outlook, as we see the full-year 2021 growth picture steadily improving through the first half of the year as more of the population gets vaccinated.\nThe chart below shows the overall earnings picture on an annual basis.\n\nThe flow of recent economic readings about the retail spending, housing starts, and the factory space suggest that activity levels moderated in February, likely reflecting unusual weather and the lingering effects on the pandemic. But with the extraordinary vaccination effort steadily gaining pace and new stimulus checks heading out, it is reasonable to expect the economic growth trend to turn around meaningfully in the coming days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/327389436"}