moJoe
2021-03-18
Genius.
9 Times Warren Buffett Predicted the Stock Market Accurately<blockquote>9倍股神巴菲特准确预测股市</blockquote>
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He is, after all, one of the most successful investors of all time and the No. 4 richest person in the world. After earning more than $1 billion in 10 weeks on a bet on Chevron, Buffett briefly became one of only six people ever to grow their net worths to 12 figures, although he’s currently back down under $100 billion. He’s the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, a holding company that Buffett runs with his investment partner, Charles Munger.</p><p><blockquote>当沃伦·巴菲特讲话时，全世界都会倾听——他们应该倾听。毕竟，他是有史以来最成功的投资者之一，也是世界上第四富有的人。在押注雪佛龙10周内赚了超过10亿美元后，巴菲特短暂地成为仅有的6名净资产增长到12位数的人之一，尽管他目前的净资产已回落到1000亿美元以下。他是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的首席执行官，该公司是巴菲特和他的投资伙伴查尔斯·芒格共同经营的控股公司。</blockquote></p><p> His prescient calls about stocks and the market, in general, have earned him the nickname “The Oracle of Omaha,” in honor of the Nebraska city where he resides. Buffett offered one of his most dramatic market predictions in September 2017, when he predicted that by 2117, the Dow Jones industrial average would hit 1,000,000.</p><p><blockquote>他对股票和市场有先见之明的评级为他赢得了“奥马哈先知”的绰号，以纪念他居住的内布拉斯加城市。巴菲特在2017年9月做出了他最引人注目的市场预测之一，当时他预测到2117年，道琼斯工业平均指数将达到100万点。</blockquote></p><p> While Buffett won’t be around to see if his prediction will come true, it reflects his lifelong belief in the strength of the American economy and the long-term resilience of the U.S. stock market. Here’s a look at some of his most successful andbiggest investment predictions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然巴菲特不会亲眼目睹他的预测是否会成真，但这反映了他对美国经济实力和美国股市长期韧性的终生信念。以下是他的一些最成功和最大的投资预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America Will Rise Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行将再次崛起</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2011, Bank of America was suffering from the aftershocks of the subprime mortgage crisis. With the stock trading below $7 per share compared to $19 the year before, Buffett smelled a bargain and bought $5 billion in preferred shares in Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>2011年，美国银行正遭受次贷危机的余震。由于股票交易价格低于每股7美元，而前一年为19美元，巴菲特嗅到了便宜货，购买了价值50亿美元的美国银行优先股。</blockquote></p><p> The preferred shares paid a hefty 6 percent yield, resulting in $336 million in annual dividend payments to the company. Even better, the preferred stock came with warrants that allowed Buffett to buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at $7.14 per share.</p><p><blockquote>优先股支付了6%的高额收益率，为公司带来了3.36亿美元的年度股息。更好的是，优先股附带认股权证，允许巴菲特以每股7.14美元的价格购买7亿股美国银行股票。</blockquote></p><p> At the time, Buffett made this prediction in his annual investment letter: “Our warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares will likely be of great value before they expire.” When Buffett exercised the warrants in 2017, he earned $12 billion.Today, Bank of America is trading at around $37.40 a share, and Buffett purchased Berkshire’s more than 1.03 billion shares—the second-largest holding in his portfolio—at an average price of $24.24 per share.</p><p><blockquote>当时，巴菲特在年度投资信中做出了这样的预测：“我们购买7亿股美国银行股票的认股权证在到期前很可能具有巨大的价值。”当巴菲特在2017年行使认股权证时，他赚了120亿美元。如今，美国银行的交易价格约为每股37.40美元，巴菲特以每股24.24美元的平均价格购买了伯克希尔超过10.3亿股股票——这是他投资组合中的第二大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Time to Start Investing is Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在是开始投资的时候了</b></blockquote></p><p> Buffett told Forbes magazine in late 1974, when the Dow was below 600, that he viewed the market “…like an oversexed guy in a harem. This is the time to start investing.”</p><p><blockquote>1974年末，当道琼斯指数低于600点时，巴菲特告诉《福布斯》杂志，他认为市场“……就像后宫里性欲过剩的男人。现在是开始投资的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> By the time that interview was published, the Dow had climbed by almost 15 percent to 660. Buffett’s prediction came after a notorious bear market from 1973 to 1974. Perhaps more than any other prediction, this prognostication highlights Buffett’s philosophy to “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”</p><p><blockquote>到采访发表时，道琼斯指数已经上涨了近15%，达到660点。巴菲特的预测是在1973年至1974年臭名昭著的熊市之后做出的。也许比其他任何预测都更突出了巴菲特“在别人贪婪时恐惧，在别人恐惧时贪婪”的哲学。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock Market Returns Will Be 6 Percent</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股市回报率将为6%</b></blockquote></p><p> In 1999, stocks were near the end of an incredible run. The market began a big upswing starting in 1982, and returns for 1995 to 1999 were 37.58 percent, 22.96 percent, 33.36 percent, 28.58 percent, and 21.04 percent, respectively. The Oracle of Omaha made a dramatic, long-term, counter-trend prediction in the midst of all of this ebullience.</p><p><blockquote>1999年，股市即将结束一场令人难以置信的上涨。从1982年开始，市场开始大幅上涨，1995年至1999年的回报率分别为37.58%、22.96%、33.36%、28.58%和21.04%。在所有这些热情中，奥马哈先知做出了一个戏剧性的、长期的、反趋势的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett confidently predicted that stock market returns for the following 17 years would be nothing like the previous 17 years. In fact, he suggested that the “most probable return” for the next 17 years would be 6 percent.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特自信地预测，接下来17年的股市回报将与前17年完全不同。事实上，他认为未来17年“最有可能的回报”是6%。</blockquote></p><p> By 2016, at the end of the 17-year period, stocks had returned 5.9 percent — an amazingly accurate prediction over such a long time period.</p><p><blockquote>到2016年，在17年期间结束时，股票回报率为5.9%——在如此长的时间内，这是一个令人惊讶的准确预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Index Funds Will Outperform Hedge Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指数基金将跑赢对冲基金</b></blockquote></p><p> What might have been Buffett’s most dramatic prediction came in 2007, when he offered to bet $500,000 that over the following 10 years, the S&P 500 index would outperform a portfolio of hedge funds when fees were included. Hedge fund manager Ted Seides, of Protege Partners, took the bet.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特最引人注目的预测出现在2007年，当时巴菲特提出以50万美元打赌，在接下来的10年里，如果计入费用，标普500指数的表现将优于对冲基金投资组合。Protege Partners的对冲基金经理泰德·塞德斯(Ted Seides)接受了这一赌注。</blockquote></p><p> When 2017 rolled around, Seides was the one who had to pay up. In fact, the bet was so lopsided that Seides conceded the wager before the entire 10 years had expired. At that point, Seides’ collection of funds had earned just 2.2 percent per year, while the S&P 500 index had earned more than 7 percent per year, thus supporting Buffett’s point that indexing typically can beat actively managed funds.</p><p><blockquote>当2017年到来时，塞德斯是必须付钱的人。事实上，这个赌注是如此不平衡，以至于塞德斯在整个10年到期前就认输了。当时，Seides收集的基金年收益仅为2.2%，而标普500指数的年收益超过7%，因此支持了Buffett的观点，即指数化通常可以击败主动管理型基金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs is Down But Not Out</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛陷入困境但并未出局</b></blockquote></p><p> In late September 2008, investment bank Goldman Sachs was a wounded giant caught in the vortex of the financial implosion it helped create. Predicting that Goldman Sachs would not only survive but thrive, Buffett invested $5 billion in the company. In exchange, Goldman Sachs gave Buffett preferred shares that paid an amazing 10 percent per year in income.</p><p><blockquote>2008年9月下旬，投资银行高盛是一个受伤的巨人，陷入了它帮助制造的金融内爆的漩涡。巴菲特预测高盛不仅会生存下来，而且会蓬勃发展，因此向该公司投资了50亿美元。作为交换，高盛给了巴菲特优先股，每年的收益高达10%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, Buffett was granted $5 billion in warrants, allowing him to buy the stock at $115 per share. By 2013, Buffett’s prediction had come true with remarkable accuracy — he walked away with a profit of $3.2 billion after investing when the market was low.You and your 401k, of course, will likely not be receiving preferred warrant status like Buffett, but you still would have cashed in big time had you pulled the trigger when Buffett did. Goldman was trading below $80 in November 2008 and is now riding high around $344.</p><p><blockquote>此外，巴菲特还获得了50亿美元的认股权证，允许他以每股115美元的价格购买该股票。到2013年，巴菲特的预测以惊人的准确性实现了——他在市场低迷时投资后获利32亿美元。当然，你和你的401k可能不会像巴菲特那样获得优先认股权证地位，但如果你在巴菲特的时候扣动扳机，你仍然会赚很多钱。2008年11月，高盛的交易价格低于80美元，目前正飙升至344美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Coca-Cola Is A Long-Term Buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>可口可乐是长期买入</b></blockquote></p><p> One of Buffett’s biggest stock market wins can be traced to an investment that started in 1988, the year he first bought into Coca-Cola.Today, Berkshire Hathaway owns 400 million shares, more than 9 percent of the company. On Jan. 1, 1988, Coca-Cola was trading at $2.39. While the stock has seen its ups and downs, it’s trading above $50 per share today.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特最大的股市胜利之一可以追溯到1988年开始的一项投资，那一年他首次买入可口可乐。如今，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司拥有4亿股股票，超过该公司的9%。1988年1月1日，可口可乐的交易价格为2.39美元。虽然该股经历了起起落落，但今天的交易价格仍高于每股50美元。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Coca-Cola epitomizes the entire Warren Buffett investment approach— to take long-term positions in big, established companies that perform well and whose business models you understand.Buffett’s love of Cherry Coke is the stuff of legend—he switched after nearly 50 years of chugging Pepsi. He drinks an average of five cans of the stuff — the nutritional equivalent of junk bonds — every day for a total of 25 percent of his daily caloric intake. He famously told Fortune in 2015, “I’m one-quarter Coca-Cola.”</p><p><blockquote>从很多方面来说，可口可乐是沃伦·巴菲特整个投资方法的缩影——在表现良好且您了解其商业模式的大型老牌公司中持有长期头寸。巴菲特对樱桃可乐的热爱是传奇——他在饮用百事可乐近50年后改变了。他平均每天喝五罐这种东西——营养相当于垃圾债券——总共占他每日热量摄入的25%。2015年，他对《财富》杂志说过一句名言：“我是四分之一的可口可乐。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks Are Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票很便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Another one of Buffett’s more famous predictions came to fruition despite the obstacle of a virus</p><p><blockquote>尽管有病毒的阻碍，巴菲特的另一个更著名的预测还是实现了</blockquote></p><p> On Feb. 27, 2017, Buffett told CNBC’s Becky Quick that “…we are not in bubble territory, or anything of the sort,” despite many market observers saying that the current bull run was getting frothy. In fact, Buffett continued, “measured against interest rates, stocks are actually on the cheap side compared to historic valuations.” In other words, Buffett was predicting that stocks were undervalued and that it was time to buy again.</p><p><blockquote>2017年2月27日，巴菲特对CNBC的贝基·奎克(Becky Quick)表示，“……我们并没有处于泡沫区域或类似的区域”，尽管许多市场观察人士表示当前的牛市正在变得泡沫。事实上，巴菲特继续说道，“以利率来衡量，与历史估值相比，股票实际上是便宜的。”换句话说，巴菲特预测股票被低估了，是时候再次买入了。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones industrial average closed at a price of 20,837.44 on the day Buffett made that prediction. Just a little over seven months later, the Dow was at 22,773.67 for a gain of 9.29 percent.Fast-forward to March 10, 2020, and the Dow soared past yet another record close of 32,297.02 in wake of the passage of new COVID relief. That’s a gain of more than 50 percent of the index’s closing price on the day Buffett made his gamble.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特做出这一预测的当天，道琼斯工业平均指数收于20,837.44点。仅仅七个多月后，道琼斯指数收于22,773.67点，涨幅为9.29%。快进到2020年3月10日，随着新冠疫情的缓解，道琼斯指数飙升至创纪录的收盘价32,297.02点。这比巴菲特下注当天该指数收盘价上涨了50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Home Capital Group Is Undervalued</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Home Capital Group被低估</b></blockquote></p><p> In mid-2017, Buffett extended his reach beyond the United States to invest in Canadian lender Home Capital Group. As with many other Buffett transactions, he got a sweet deal in this purchase right from the outset.</p><p><blockquote>2017年年中，巴菲特将触角伸向美国以外，投资了加拿大银行Home Capital Group。与巴菲特的许多其他交易一样，他从一开始就在这次购买中获得了一笔不错的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett lent $1.5 billion to the company at interest rates of 9 to 9.5 percent. Buffett also enjoyed the right to buy up to 20 percent of the company’s stock at a 20 percent discount to its market price, predicting that the stock would rise after his purchase.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特以9%至9.5%的利率借给该公司15亿美元。巴菲特还享有以低于市价20%的价格购买最多20%的公司股票的权利，并预测股票在他购买后会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The stock deal allowed him to purchase Home Capital at $10 per share.On March 15, 2020, it was trading at $32.50, which means Buffett would have tripled his investment plus change.</p><p><blockquote>股票交易使他能够以每股10美元的价格收购Home Capital。2020年3月15日，其交易价格为32.50美元，这意味着巴菲特的投资加上变化将增加两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy and Hold Berkshire Hathaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买并持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b></blockquote></p><p> One of Buffett’s best investments of all time was in the company that he now runs, Berkshire Hathaway. In 1964, the company offered to buy Buffett’s shares for $11.50 each, to which he agreed. Later, the company reduced the amount of their offer, and this compelled Buffett to not only cancel his sale but to buy enough stock to control the company and fire the manager who lowered his original offer. Buffett had made the prediction again with his wallet that shares in Berkshire Hathaway would rise over time.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特有史以来最好的投资之一是他现在经营的公司伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。1964年，该公司提出以每股11.50美元的价格购买巴菲特的股票，他同意了。后来，公司降低了报价，这迫使巴菲特不仅取消了出售，还购买了足够的股票来控制公司，并解雇了降低最初报价的经理。巴菲特再次用他的钱包预测伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股价会随着时间的推移而上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Buffett’s prediction came true in spades. Now, just one share of Berkshire Hathaway sells for about $281,000. As Buffett’s longest-held investment, Berkshire Hathaway is a reminder to investors that “buy and hold” can indeed result in tremendous gains.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特的预言再次成真。现在，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的一股售价约为28.1万美元。作为巴菲特持有时间最长的投资，伯克希尔哈撒韦提醒投资者，“买入并持有”确实可以带来巨大收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616052142951","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>9 Times Warren Buffett Predicted the Stock Market Accurately<blockquote>9倍股神巴菲特准确预测股市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n9 Times Warren Buffett Predicted the Stock Market Accurately<blockquote>9倍股神巴菲特准确预测股市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">GoBankingRates</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 15:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This is why you should take Warren Buffett's advice.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么你应该接受沃伦·巴菲特的建议。</blockquote></p><p> When Warren Buffett talks, the world listens—and they should. He is, after all, one of the most successful investors of all time and the No. 4 richest person in the world. After earning more than $1 billion in 10 weeks on a bet on Chevron, Buffett briefly became one of only six people ever to grow their net worths to 12 figures, although he’s currently back down under $100 billion. He’s the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, a holding company that Buffett runs with his investment partner, Charles Munger.</p><p><blockquote>当沃伦·巴菲特讲话时，全世界都会倾听——他们应该倾听。毕竟，他是有史以来最成功的投资者之一，也是世界上第四富有的人。在押注雪佛龙10周内赚了超过10亿美元后，巴菲特短暂地成为仅有的6名净资产增长到12位数的人之一，尽管他目前的净资产已回落到1000亿美元以下。他是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的首席执行官，该公司是巴菲特和他的投资伙伴查尔斯·芒格共同经营的控股公司。</blockquote></p><p> His prescient calls about stocks and the market, in general, have earned him the nickname “The Oracle of Omaha,” in honor of the Nebraska city where he resides. Buffett offered one of his most dramatic market predictions in September 2017, when he predicted that by 2117, the Dow Jones industrial average would hit 1,000,000.</p><p><blockquote>他对股票和市场有先见之明的评级为他赢得了“奥马哈先知”的绰号，以纪念他居住的内布拉斯加城市。巴菲特在2017年9月做出了他最引人注目的市场预测之一，当时他预测到2117年，道琼斯工业平均指数将达到100万点。</blockquote></p><p> While Buffett won’t be around to see if his prediction will come true, it reflects his lifelong belief in the strength of the American economy and the long-term resilience of the U.S. stock market. Here’s a look at some of his most successful andbiggest investment predictions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然巴菲特不会亲眼目睹他的预测是否会成真，但这反映了他对美国经济实力和美国股市长期韧性的终生信念。以下是他的一些最成功和最大的投资预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bank of America Will Rise Again</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国银行将再次崛起</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2011, Bank of America was suffering from the aftershocks of the subprime mortgage crisis. With the stock trading below $7 per share compared to $19 the year before, Buffett smelled a bargain and bought $5 billion in preferred shares in Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>2011年，美国银行正遭受次贷危机的余震。由于股票交易价格低于每股7美元，而前一年为19美元，巴菲特嗅到了便宜货，购买了价值50亿美元的美国银行优先股。</blockquote></p><p> The preferred shares paid a hefty 6 percent yield, resulting in $336 million in annual dividend payments to the company. Even better, the preferred stock came with warrants that allowed Buffett to buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at $7.14 per share.</p><p><blockquote>优先股支付了6%的高额收益率，为公司带来了3.36亿美元的年度股息。更好的是，优先股附带认股权证，允许巴菲特以每股7.14美元的价格购买7亿股美国银行股票。</blockquote></p><p> At the time, Buffett made this prediction in his annual investment letter: “Our warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares will likely be of great value before they expire.” When Buffett exercised the warrants in 2017, he earned $12 billion.Today, Bank of America is trading at around $37.40 a share, and Buffett purchased Berkshire’s more than 1.03 billion shares—the second-largest holding in his portfolio—at an average price of $24.24 per share.</p><p><blockquote>当时，巴菲特在年度投资信中做出了这样的预测：“我们购买7亿股美国银行股票的认股权证在到期前很可能具有巨大的价值。”当巴菲特在2017年行使认股权证时，他赚了120亿美元。如今，美国银行的交易价格约为每股37.40美元，巴菲特以每股24.24美元的平均价格购买了伯克希尔超过10.3亿股股票——这是他投资组合中的第二大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Time to Start Investing is Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在是开始投资的时候了</b></blockquote></p><p> Buffett told Forbes magazine in late 1974, when the Dow was below 600, that he viewed the market “…like an oversexed guy in a harem. This is the time to start investing.”</p><p><blockquote>1974年末，当道琼斯指数低于600点时，巴菲特告诉《福布斯》杂志，他认为市场“……就像后宫里性欲过剩的男人。现在是开始投资的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> By the time that interview was published, the Dow had climbed by almost 15 percent to 660. Buffett’s prediction came after a notorious bear market from 1973 to 1974. Perhaps more than any other prediction, this prognostication highlights Buffett’s philosophy to “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”</p><p><blockquote>到采访发表时，道琼斯指数已经上涨了近15%，达到660点。巴菲特的预测是在1973年至1974年臭名昭著的熊市之后做出的。也许比其他任何预测都更突出了巴菲特“在别人贪婪时恐惧，在别人恐惧时贪婪”的哲学。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock Market Returns Will Be 6 Percent</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股市回报率将为6%</b></blockquote></p><p> In 1999, stocks were near the end of an incredible run. The market began a big upswing starting in 1982, and returns for 1995 to 1999 were 37.58 percent, 22.96 percent, 33.36 percent, 28.58 percent, and 21.04 percent, respectively. The Oracle of Omaha made a dramatic, long-term, counter-trend prediction in the midst of all of this ebullience.</p><p><blockquote>1999年，股市即将结束一场令人难以置信的上涨。从1982年开始，市场开始大幅上涨，1995年至1999年的回报率分别为37.58%、22.96%、33.36%、28.58%和21.04%。在所有这些热情中，奥马哈先知做出了一个戏剧性的、长期的、反趋势的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett confidently predicted that stock market returns for the following 17 years would be nothing like the previous 17 years. In fact, he suggested that the “most probable return” for the next 17 years would be 6 percent.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特自信地预测，接下来17年的股市回报将与前17年完全不同。事实上，他认为未来17年“最有可能的回报”是6%。</blockquote></p><p> By 2016, at the end of the 17-year period, stocks had returned 5.9 percent — an amazingly accurate prediction over such a long time period.</p><p><blockquote>到2016年，在17年期间结束时，股票回报率为5.9%——在如此长的时间内，这是一个令人惊讶的准确预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Index Funds Will Outperform Hedge Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>指数基金将跑赢对冲基金</b></blockquote></p><p> What might have been Buffett’s most dramatic prediction came in 2007, when he offered to bet $500,000 that over the following 10 years, the S&P 500 index would outperform a portfolio of hedge funds when fees were included. Hedge fund manager Ted Seides, of Protege Partners, took the bet.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特最引人注目的预测出现在2007年，当时巴菲特提出以50万美元打赌，在接下来的10年里，如果计入费用，标普500指数的表现将优于对冲基金投资组合。Protege Partners的对冲基金经理泰德·塞德斯(Ted Seides)接受了这一赌注。</blockquote></p><p> When 2017 rolled around, Seides was the one who had to pay up. In fact, the bet was so lopsided that Seides conceded the wager before the entire 10 years had expired. At that point, Seides’ collection of funds had earned just 2.2 percent per year, while the S&P 500 index had earned more than 7 percent per year, thus supporting Buffett’s point that indexing typically can beat actively managed funds.</p><p><blockquote>当2017年到来时，塞德斯是必须付钱的人。事实上，这个赌注是如此不平衡，以至于塞德斯在整个10年到期前就认输了。当时，Seides收集的基金年收益仅为2.2%，而标普500指数的年收益超过7%，因此支持了Buffett的观点，即指数化通常可以击败主动管理型基金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Goldman Sachs is Down But Not Out</b></p><p><blockquote><b>高盛陷入困境但并未出局</b></blockquote></p><p> In late September 2008, investment bank Goldman Sachs was a wounded giant caught in the vortex of the financial implosion it helped create. Predicting that Goldman Sachs would not only survive but thrive, Buffett invested $5 billion in the company. In exchange, Goldman Sachs gave Buffett preferred shares that paid an amazing 10 percent per year in income.</p><p><blockquote>2008年9月下旬，投资银行高盛是一个受伤的巨人，陷入了它帮助制造的金融内爆的漩涡。巴菲特预测高盛不仅会生存下来，而且会蓬勃发展，因此向该公司投资了50亿美元。作为交换，高盛给了巴菲特优先股，每年的收益高达10%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, Buffett was granted $5 billion in warrants, allowing him to buy the stock at $115 per share. By 2013, Buffett’s prediction had come true with remarkable accuracy — he walked away with a profit of $3.2 billion after investing when the market was low.You and your 401k, of course, will likely not be receiving preferred warrant status like Buffett, but you still would have cashed in big time had you pulled the trigger when Buffett did. Goldman was trading below $80 in November 2008 and is now riding high around $344.</p><p><blockquote>此外，巴菲特还获得了50亿美元的认股权证，允许他以每股115美元的价格购买该股票。到2013年，巴菲特的预测以惊人的准确性实现了——他在市场低迷时投资后获利32亿美元。当然，你和你的401k可能不会像巴菲特那样获得优先认股权证地位，但如果你在巴菲特的时候扣动扳机，你仍然会赚很多钱。2008年11月，高盛的交易价格低于80美元，目前正飙升至344美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Coca-Cola Is A Long-Term Buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>可口可乐是长期买入</b></blockquote></p><p> One of Buffett’s biggest stock market wins can be traced to an investment that started in 1988, the year he first bought into Coca-Cola.Today, Berkshire Hathaway owns 400 million shares, more than 9 percent of the company. On Jan. 1, 1988, Coca-Cola was trading at $2.39. While the stock has seen its ups and downs, it’s trading above $50 per share today.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特最大的股市胜利之一可以追溯到1988年开始的一项投资，那一年他首次买入可口可乐。如今，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司拥有4亿股股票，超过该公司的9%。1988年1月1日，可口可乐的交易价格为2.39美元。虽然该股经历了起起落落，但今天的交易价格仍高于每股50美元。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Coca-Cola epitomizes the entire Warren Buffett investment approach— to take long-term positions in big, established companies that perform well and whose business models you understand.Buffett’s love of Cherry Coke is the stuff of legend—he switched after nearly 50 years of chugging Pepsi. He drinks an average of five cans of the stuff — the nutritional equivalent of junk bonds — every day for a total of 25 percent of his daily caloric intake. He famously told Fortune in 2015, “I’m one-quarter Coca-Cola.”</p><p><blockquote>从很多方面来说，可口可乐是沃伦·巴菲特整个投资方法的缩影——在表现良好且您了解其商业模式的大型老牌公司中持有长期头寸。巴菲特对樱桃可乐的热爱是传奇——他在饮用百事可乐近50年后改变了。他平均每天喝五罐这种东西——营养相当于垃圾债券——总共占他每日热量摄入的25%。2015年，他对《财富》杂志说过一句名言：“我是四分之一的可口可乐。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks Are Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票很便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Another one of Buffett’s more famous predictions came to fruition despite the obstacle of a virus</p><p><blockquote>尽管有病毒的阻碍，巴菲特的另一个更著名的预测还是实现了</blockquote></p><p> On Feb. 27, 2017, Buffett told CNBC’s Becky Quick that “…we are not in bubble territory, or anything of the sort,” despite many market observers saying that the current bull run was getting frothy. In fact, Buffett continued, “measured against interest rates, stocks are actually on the cheap side compared to historic valuations.” In other words, Buffett was predicting that stocks were undervalued and that it was time to buy again.</p><p><blockquote>2017年2月27日，巴菲特对CNBC的贝基·奎克(Becky Quick)表示，“……我们并没有处于泡沫区域或类似的区域”，尽管许多市场观察人士表示当前的牛市正在变得泡沫。事实上，巴菲特继续说道，“以利率来衡量，与历史估值相比，股票实际上是便宜的。”换句话说，巴菲特预测股票被低估了，是时候再次买入了。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones industrial average closed at a price of 20,837.44 on the day Buffett made that prediction. Just a little over seven months later, the Dow was at 22,773.67 for a gain of 9.29 percent.Fast-forward to March 10, 2020, and the Dow soared past yet another record close of 32,297.02 in wake of the passage of new COVID relief. That’s a gain of more than 50 percent of the index’s closing price on the day Buffett made his gamble.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特做出这一预测的当天，道琼斯工业平均指数收于20,837.44点。仅仅七个多月后，道琼斯指数收于22,773.67点，涨幅为9.29%。快进到2020年3月10日，随着新冠疫情的缓解，道琼斯指数飙升至创纪录的收盘价32,297.02点。这比巴菲特下注当天该指数收盘价上涨了50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Home Capital Group Is Undervalued</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Home Capital Group被低估</b></blockquote></p><p> In mid-2017, Buffett extended his reach beyond the United States to invest in Canadian lender Home Capital Group. As with many other Buffett transactions, he got a sweet deal in this purchase right from the outset.</p><p><blockquote>2017年年中，巴菲特将触角伸向美国以外，投资了加拿大银行Home Capital Group。与巴菲特的许多其他交易一样，他从一开始就在这次购买中获得了一笔不错的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett lent $1.5 billion to the company at interest rates of 9 to 9.5 percent. Buffett also enjoyed the right to buy up to 20 percent of the company’s stock at a 20 percent discount to its market price, predicting that the stock would rise after his purchase.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特以9%至9.5%的利率借给该公司15亿美元。巴菲特还享有以低于市价20%的价格购买最多20%的公司股票的权利，并预测股票在他购买后会上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The stock deal allowed him to purchase Home Capital at $10 per share.On March 15, 2020, it was trading at $32.50, which means Buffett would have tripled his investment plus change.</p><p><blockquote>股票交易使他能够以每股10美元的价格收购Home Capital。2020年3月15日，其交易价格为32.50美元，这意味着巴菲特的投资加上变化将增加两倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buy and Hold Berkshire Hathaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>购买并持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司</b></blockquote></p><p> One of Buffett’s best investments of all time was in the company that he now runs, Berkshire Hathaway. In 1964, the company offered to buy Buffett’s shares for $11.50 each, to which he agreed. Later, the company reduced the amount of their offer, and this compelled Buffett to not only cancel his sale but to buy enough stock to control the company and fire the manager who lowered his original offer. Buffett had made the prediction again with his wallet that shares in Berkshire Hathaway would rise over time.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特有史以来最好的投资之一是他现在经营的公司伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。1964年，该公司提出以每股11.50美元的价格购买巴菲特的股票，他同意了。后来，公司降低了报价，这迫使巴菲特不仅取消了出售，还购买了足够的股票来控制公司，并解雇了降低最初报价的经理。巴菲特再次用他的钱包预测伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股价会随着时间的推移而上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, Buffett’s prediction came true in spades. Now, just one share of Berkshire Hathaway sells for about $281,000. As Buffett’s longest-held investment, Berkshire Hathaway is a reminder to investors that “buy and hold” can indeed result in tremendous gains.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特的预言再次成真。现在，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的一股售价约为28.1万美元。作为巴菲特持有时间最长的投资，伯克希尔哈撒韦提醒投资者，“买入并持有”确实可以带来巨大收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.gobankingrates.com/investing/stocks/times-warren-buffett-predicted-stock-market-accurately/#10\">GoBankingRates</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KO":"可口可乐","HMCBF":"Home Capital Group Inc.","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","GS":"高盛","BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"https://www.gobankingrates.com/investing/stocks/times-warren-buffett-predicted-stock-market-accurately/#10","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144305771","content_text":"This is why you should take Warren Buffett's advice.\nWhen Warren Buffett talks, the world listens—and they should. He is, after all, one of the most successful investors of all time and the No. 4 richest person in the world. After earning more than $1 billion in 10 weeks on a bet on Chevron, Buffett briefly became one of only six people ever to grow their net worths to 12 figures, although he’s currently back down under $100 billion. He’s the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, a holding company that Buffett runs with his investment partner, Charles Munger.\nHis prescient calls about stocks and the market, in general, have earned him the nickname “The Oracle of Omaha,” in honor of the Nebraska city where he resides. Buffett offered one of his most dramatic market predictions in September 2017, when he predicted that by 2117, the Dow Jones industrial average would hit 1,000,000.\nWhile Buffett won’t be around to see if his prediction will come true, it reflects his lifelong belief in the strength of the American economy and the long-term resilience of the U.S. stock market. Here’s a look at some of his most successful andbiggest investment predictions.\nBank of America Will Rise Again\nIn 2011, Bank of America was suffering from the aftershocks of the subprime mortgage crisis. With the stock trading below $7 per share compared to $19 the year before, Buffett smelled a bargain and bought $5 billion in preferred shares in Bank of America.\nThe preferred shares paid a hefty 6 percent yield, resulting in $336 million in annual dividend payments to the company. Even better, the preferred stock came with warrants that allowed Buffett to buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at $7.14 per share.\nAt the time, Buffett made this prediction in his annual investment letter: “Our warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares will likely be of great value before they expire.” When Buffett exercised the warrants in 2017, he earned $12 billion.Today, Bank of America is trading at around $37.40 a share, and Buffett purchased Berkshire’s more than 1.03 billion shares—the second-largest holding in his portfolio—at an average price of $24.24 per share.\nThe Time to Start Investing is Now\nBuffett told Forbes magazine in late 1974, when the Dow was below 600, that he viewed the market “…like an oversexed guy in a harem. This is the time to start investing.”\nBy the time that interview was published, the Dow had climbed by almost 15 percent to 660. Buffett’s prediction came after a notorious bear market from 1973 to 1974. Perhaps more than any other prediction, this prognostication highlights Buffett’s philosophy to “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”\nStock Market Returns Will Be 6 Percent\nIn 1999, stocks were near the end of an incredible run. The market began a big upswing starting in 1982, and returns for 1995 to 1999 were 37.58 percent, 22.96 percent, 33.36 percent, 28.58 percent, and 21.04 percent, respectively. The Oracle of Omaha made a dramatic, long-term, counter-trend prediction in the midst of all of this ebullience.\nBuffett confidently predicted that stock market returns for the following 17 years would be nothing like the previous 17 years. In fact, he suggested that the “most probable return” for the next 17 years would be 6 percent.\nBy 2016, at the end of the 17-year period, stocks had returned 5.9 percent — an amazingly accurate prediction over such a long time period.\nIndex Funds Will Outperform Hedge Funds\nWhat might have been Buffett’s most dramatic prediction came in 2007, when he offered to bet $500,000 that over the following 10 years, the S&P 500 index would outperform a portfolio of hedge funds when fees were included. Hedge fund manager Ted Seides, of Protege Partners, took the bet.\nWhen 2017 rolled around, Seides was the one who had to pay up. In fact, the bet was so lopsided that Seides conceded the wager before the entire 10 years had expired. At that point, Seides’ collection of funds had earned just 2.2 percent per year, while the S&P 500 index had earned more than 7 percent per year, thus supporting Buffett’s point that indexing typically can beat actively managed funds.\nGoldman Sachs is Down But Not Out\nIn late September 2008, investment bank Goldman Sachs was a wounded giant caught in the vortex of the financial implosion it helped create. Predicting that Goldman Sachs would not only survive but thrive, Buffett invested $5 billion in the company. In exchange, Goldman Sachs gave Buffett preferred shares that paid an amazing 10 percent per year in income.\nAdditionally, Buffett was granted $5 billion in warrants, allowing him to buy the stock at $115 per share. By 2013, Buffett’s prediction had come true with remarkable accuracy — he walked away with a profit of $3.2 billion after investing when the market was low.You and your 401k, of course, will likely not be receiving preferred warrant status like Buffett, but you still would have cashed in big time had you pulled the trigger when Buffett did. Goldman was trading below $80 in November 2008 and is now riding high around $344.\nCoca-Cola Is A Long-Term Buy\nOne of Buffett’s biggest stock market wins can be traced to an investment that started in 1988, the year he first bought into Coca-Cola.Today, Berkshire Hathaway owns 400 million shares, more than 9 percent of the company. On Jan. 1, 1988, Coca-Cola was trading at $2.39. While the stock has seen its ups and downs, it’s trading above $50 per share today.\nIn many ways, Coca-Cola epitomizes the entire Warren Buffett investment approach— to take long-term positions in big, established companies that perform well and whose business models you understand.Buffett’s love of Cherry Coke is the stuff of legend—he switched after nearly 50 years of chugging Pepsi. He drinks an average of five cans of the stuff — the nutritional equivalent of junk bonds — every day for a total of 25 percent of his daily caloric intake. He famously told Fortune in 2015, “I’m one-quarter Coca-Cola.”\nStocks Are Cheap\nAnother one of Buffett’s more famous predictions came to fruition despite the obstacle of a virus\nOn Feb. 27, 2017, Buffett told CNBC’s Becky Quick that “…we are not in bubble territory, or anything of the sort,” despite many market observers saying that the current bull run was getting frothy. In fact, Buffett continued, “measured against interest rates, stocks are actually on the cheap side compared to historic valuations.” In other words, Buffett was predicting that stocks were undervalued and that it was time to buy again.\nThe Dow Jones industrial average closed at a price of 20,837.44 on the day Buffett made that prediction. Just a little over seven months later, the Dow was at 22,773.67 for a gain of 9.29 percent.Fast-forward to March 10, 2020, and the Dow soared past yet another record close of 32,297.02 in wake of the passage of new COVID relief. That’s a gain of more than 50 percent of the index’s closing price on the day Buffett made his gamble.\nHome Capital Group Is Undervalued\nIn mid-2017, Buffett extended his reach beyond the United States to invest in Canadian lender Home Capital Group. As with many other Buffett transactions, he got a sweet deal in this purchase right from the outset.\nBuffett lent $1.5 billion to the company at interest rates of 9 to 9.5 percent. Buffett also enjoyed the right to buy up to 20 percent of the company’s stock at a 20 percent discount to its market price, predicting that the stock would rise after his purchase.\nThe stock deal allowed him to purchase Home Capital at $10 per share.On March 15, 2020, it was trading at $32.50, which means Buffett would have tripled his investment plus change.\nBuy and Hold Berkshire Hathaway\nOne of Buffett’s best investments of all time was in the company that he now runs, Berkshire Hathaway. In 1964, the company offered to buy Buffett’s shares for $11.50 each, to which he agreed. Later, the company reduced the amount of their offer, and this compelled Buffett to not only cancel his sale but to buy enough stock to control the company and fire the manager who lowered his original offer. Buffett had made the prediction again with his wallet that shares in Berkshire Hathaway would rise over time.\nOnce again, Buffett’s prediction came true in spades. Now, just one share of Berkshire Hathaway sells for about $281,000. As Buffett’s longest-held investment, Berkshire Hathaway is a reminder to investors that “buy and hold” can indeed result in tremendous gains.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"GS":0.9,"HMCBF":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"KO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":900,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/327967582"}
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