Mysterious n Confused_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-03-12

Mysterious n Confused

The stock market is behaving in mysterious ways — is it bullish, bearish or something else?<blockquote>股市正以神秘的方式表现——是看涨、看跌还是其他？</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":328517294,"tweetId":"328517294","gmtCreate":1615540127118,"gmtModify":1703490639694,"author":{"id":3574312720176101,"idStr":"3574312720176101","authorId":3574312720176101,"authorIdStr":"3574312720176101","name":"TohKokMeng79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09aad76a158a443465cacafe0bebb97","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Mysterious n Confused</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Mysterious n Confused</body></html>","text":"Mysterious n Confused","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328517294","repostId":1175382688,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175382688","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615539427,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175382688?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-12 16:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market is behaving in mysterious ways — is it bullish, bearish or something else?<blockquote>股市正以神秘的方式表现——是看涨、看跌还是其他？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175382688","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The “stodgy” side of the market is leading, while volatility is unusually high.\nThe stock market is ","content":"The “stodgy” side of the market is leading, while volatility is unusually high.<blockquote>市场“乏味”的一面处于领先地位，而波动性异常高。</blockquote> The stock market is doing something unusual, especially in these volatile times: It’s being led by the “old” and “stodgy” stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.<blockquote>股市正在做一些不寻常的事情，尤其是在这个动荡的时期：它由道琼斯工业平均指数中“老”和“乏味”的股票引领。</blockquote> The Dow has hit record highs for three days, up about 1,400 points in the past four trading days to over 32,000.&nbsp; No other major index has followed along, although the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and the Russell 2000&nbsp;are not far away from new all-time highs of their own.&nbsp; The Nasdaq&nbsp;is lagging.<blockquote>道指已连续三天创下历史新高，过去四个交易日上涨约1400点，至32,000点上方。没有其他主要指数紧随其后，尽管标普500和罗素2000指数距离自己的历史新高也不远。纳斯达克落后了。</blockquote> So, is this bullish, bearish or indifferent? It probably depends on the situation, but there is an old saying that when the generals are leading the advance, it’s not a good sign for the stock market.<blockquote>那么，这是看涨、看跌还是无动于衷？这可能取决于情况，但有一句老话，当将军们领先时，这对股市来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote> That saying refers to a time when General Electric,General Motors&nbsp;and other “generals” were the mainstays of the Dow, so you can see how old it is.&nbsp; It is really just a way of saying that when the majority of stocks are weakening andnotmaking new highs, it’s not a good sign when only 30 stocks are leading the way.<blockquote>这句话指的是通用电气、通用汽车和其他“将军”是道琼斯指数的中流砥柱的时期，所以你可以看到它有多老。这实际上只是一种说法，当大多数股票都在疲软和不创出新高，当只有30只股票领先时，这并不是一个好兆头。</blockquote> Institutional investors pile into stocks<blockquote>机构投资者涌入股票</blockquote> We have different (hopefully better) ways of measuring divergence these days — specifically,cumulativebreadth indicators, new highs vs. new lows, etc., so we don’t have to “stretch” to draw a conclusion about the Dow today.<blockquote>如今，我们有不同的（希望更好的）方法来衡量分歧——具体来说，积累的广度指标、新高vs新低等，所以我们不必“拉长”就能对今天的道指下结论。</blockquote> I&nbsp;will&nbsp;say that the buyers of these Dow stocks are not the Robinhood crowd but are the “big boys” — institutional investors — and they are piling in like mad.<blockquote>我将会假设这些道琼斯指数股票的买家不是罗宾汉人群，而是“大男孩”——机构投资者——他们正在疯狂涌入。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff6c28bda1e0871bca1038e3ff2794f\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"694\"><blockquote></blockquote> In any case, we usually use the S&amp;P 500 as the measure of the broad stock market.&nbsp;The index is being dragged somewhat higher by the Dow stocks, as they are all big components of the S&amp;P 500.&nbsp; Even so, the S&amp;P 500 continues to run into resistance in the same area: 3,870 to 3,950 points.<blockquote>无论如何，我们通常用标普500来衡量整个股市。该指数被道琼斯指数拉高，因为它们都是标普500的重要组成部分。即便如此，标普500继续在同一区域遇到阻力：3870至3950点。</blockquote> A move above 3,950 — it’s close today — would be a new all-time high and bullish, requiring a “reset” of all the indicators.<blockquote>突破3,950点（今天接近）将是一个新的历史高点和看涨，需要“重置”所有指标。</blockquote> Lacking that, the bears still have a chance to gain some leverage. It would not be surprising to see the S&amp;P 500 remain in the broad trading range of 3,630 to 3,950.&nbsp; There is also support within that range, in the 3,700-3,725 area, where the S&amp;P 500 bottomed out in both late January and early March.&nbsp; A move below 3,630 would be extremely bearish.<blockquote>如果没有这一点，空头仍然有机会获得一些杠杆。看到标普500保持在3,630至3,950的广泛交易区间并不奇怪。在该区间内也有支撑，在3,700-3,725区域，标普500在1月底和3月初都见底。跌破3,630将是极其看跌的。</blockquote> Volatility off the charts<blockquote>波动性爆表</blockquote> Finally, it should be noted that intraday volatility has been very extreme in the past couple of weeks. The Market Insight segment of this newsletter has some views on that subject.<blockquote>最后，应该指出的是，过去几周盘中波动非常剧烈。这份时事通讯的市场洞察部分对这个主题有一些看法。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios are moving steadily higher and that puts them solidly on sell signals. Even so, they are still at very low levels on their charts, meaning that they are overbought.&nbsp;They are trying to work off this overbought condition, which will eventually lead to a healthier market. But they have plenty of room to move higher and will remain on these sell signals as long as they are rising.<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率正在稳步上升，这使它们坚定地发出卖出信号。即便如此，它们在图表上仍然处于非常低的水平，这意味着它们已经超买。他们正试图摆脱这种超买状态，这最终将导致一个更健康的市场。但他们有足够的空间走高，只要价格上涨，他们就会保持这些卖出信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7846c518e23ce749856330f13a70330e\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"694\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906c4724fbba47f1f91965cf90a4f39\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\"><blockquote></blockquote> Market breadth has improved tremendously over the past four trading days. At the market’s recent lows March 4, “stocks only” breadth had descended into a true oversold condition.&nbsp;Thus, the improvement in breadth this week has produced a solid buy signal. Both breadth oscillators are now back into modestly overbought territory (and on buy signals). Thecumulativebreadth indicators are improving but have not recovered enough to reach new all-time highs.<blockquote>在过去的四个交易日里，市场广度有了巨大的改善。在3月4日市场的近期低点，“仅股票”广度已经陷入真正的超卖状态。因此，本周广度的改善产生了一个坚实的买入信号。两个宽度振荡器现在都回到了适度超买的区域（并且是买入信号）。The积累的广度指标正在改善，但尚未恢复到足以达到历史新高的程度。</blockquote> New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows remains a bullish indicator.&nbsp;There was a close call about a week ago, when the NYSE data almost produced a sell signal. But it did not, and now the number of new lows on the NYSE has descended back into single digits, while the number of new highs is exploding on this rally.<blockquote>52周新高vs 52周新低仍是看涨指标，大约一周前曾出现过接近看涨期权，当时纽交所数据几乎产生卖出信号。但事实并非如此，现在纽约证券交易所的新低数量已回落至个位数，而新高数量在这次反弹中呈爆炸式增长。</blockquote> Volatility remains high, as VIX&nbsp;continues to trade well above 20. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place and will continue to do so until early April, unless it is stopped out by VIX spiking higher once again. VIX is back below its 200-day moving average. Also, the 20-day moving average is below the 200-day.&nbsp; Thus, the&nbsp;trend&nbsp;of VIX remains downward, and that is bullish for stocks too.<blockquote>波动性仍然很高，VIX继续远高于20。3月4日的VIX“峰值”买入信号仍然存在，并将持续到4月初，除非它被VIX再次飙升所阻止。VIX回到200日移动均线下方。此外，20日移动平均线低于200日移动平均线。因此，VIX的趋势仍然向下，这对股市也有利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81c77cbb812456c7d2d68174489bc29\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\"><blockquote></blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained solidly bullish for some time. In the last couple of weeks, when other indicators were (are) weakening, this construct — along with the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator — remained the bulls’ best friend.<blockquote>一段时间以来，波动性衍生品的结构一直保持坚定看涨。在过去几周，当其他指标走弱时，这一结构以及“新高与新低”指标仍然是多头最好的朋友。</blockquote> The April VIX futures are now trading with a large premium over the March VIX futures. As long as that remains the case, it is a bullish sign for stocks. The March futures expire next week — on March16 — so the “torch” will pass to April as the front month.<blockquote>4月VIX期货目前的交易价格较3月VIX期货大幅溢价。只要情况仍然如此，这对股市来说就是一个看涨信号。3月份期货将于下周（3月16日）到期，因此“火炬”将传递到4月份。</blockquote> At that time, we will begin looking at the relationship between April and May futures. It is bullish as well, as May futures are trading about 1.50 over the price of April futures. The term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too.&nbsp; All of these are currently bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>届时，我们将开始看4月和5月期货之间的关系。这也是看涨的，因为5月份期货的交易价格比4月份期货的价格高出约1.50。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也向上倾斜。所有这些目前都是股市看涨的迹象。</blockquote> In summary, the S&amp;P 500 is still running into resistance and, as long as that is the case, there is a chance that it’s still in its trading range and could retest the lows of the range.&nbsp;A breakout above 3,950 would be bullish (and likewise, a breakdownbelow3,630 would be bearish).<blockquote>总而言之，标普500仍在遇到阻力，只要是这种情况，它就有可能仍处于交易区间，并可能重新测试该区间的低点。突破3,950点将是看涨的（同样，突破以下3,630将是看跌的）。</blockquote> Market Insight: Intraday volatility explodes<blockquote>市场洞察：盘中波动爆发</blockquote> Over the past 12 trading days, intraday volatility has been extreme in the major averages. That is unusual in a market that is moving sideways or even up. Yes, in a bear market, such as we saw a year ago, extreme volatility is to be expected. But over these past 12 days, the S&amp;P 500 is up 22 points — not much, but up nonetheless.<blockquote>在过去的12个交易日中，主要平均指数的盘中波动非常剧烈。这在横盘整理甚至上涨的市场中是不寻常的。是的，在熊市中，就像我们一年前看到的那样，极端的波动是可以预料的。但在过去的12天里，标普500上涨了22点——虽然不多，但还是上涨了。</blockquote> However, the average true range is 80 points per day. “True range” measures not just the trading day’s difference between its high and its low, but if the market gapped higher, for example, it includes that gap.<blockquote>然而，平均真实范围是每天80点。“真实区间”不仅衡量交易日高点和低点之间的差异，例如，如果市场跳空走高，它也包括该跳空。</blockquote> Suppose the S&amp;P 500 closed at 3,800 one day.&nbsp;Then, suppose it opens on a gap higher at 3,850 the next day, and continues on to 3,900 on that same day.&nbsp;The true range would be 100 points (3,900–3,800) because that’s how much the market moved from its previous close to the next day’s high.<blockquote>假设标普500有一天收于3800点。然后，假设第二天它在3850点的缺口高开，并在同一天继续上涨到3900点。真实的区间应该是100点（3900-3800），因为这是市场从前一收盘到第二天高点的移动幅度。</blockquote> We have seen three such upside gaps in the past 12 days, along with plenty of intraday volatility in stocks, and that makes the average true range (ATR) 80 points — or 2% per day.&nbsp;For the S&amp;P 500 to move 80 points on any day is a big move, and for it toaveragethat much over 12 consecutive trading days is unheard of.<blockquote>在过去的12天里，我们已经看到了三个这样的上行缺口，以及股票的大量盘中波动，这使得平均真实区间(ATR)为80点，即每天2%。对于标普500来说，任何一天移动80点都是一个很大的移动，对于它来说均值连续超过12个交易日是闻所未闻的。</blockquote> Some analysts are fearful that this is a sign of over-speculation and “gambling” in the stock market.&nbsp;Others accept it for what it is and deal with it. Short-term traders love it. Fundamental analysts trying to assess the worth of a company hate it, because if a company’s stock is “worth” $X, how can it move large percentages in the blink of an eye?<blockquote>一些分析师担心这是股市过度投机和“赌博”的迹象。其他人接受它的本来面目，并处理它。短线交易者喜欢它。试图评估一家公司价值的基本面分析师讨厌它，因为如果一家公司的股票“价值”X美元，它怎么能在眨眼之间大幅波动呢？</blockquote> That question alone should lead one to be wary of fundamental analysis. As options traders, it should work to our benefit. This is a major reason why VIX has remained so high, even though most indices have been making new all-time highs with great frequency since last November.<blockquote>仅这个问题就应该让人们对基本面分析保持警惕。作为期权交易者，这应该对我们有利。这是VIX保持如此高的主要原因，尽管自去年11月以来，大多数指数都在频繁地创下历史新高。</blockquote> New recommendation: MagnaChip Semi<blockquote>新推荐：MagnaChip Semi</blockquote> MagnaChip Semiconductor&nbsp;is a takeover rumor. Stock volume patterns are extremely strong and improving rapidly. Moreover, options implied volatility has increased sharply. There is support at $20. The stock has broken out to a nearly eight-year high.<blockquote>MagnaChip半导体是收购传闻。存量模式极其强劲，并且正在迅速改善。而且，期权隐含波动率大幅上升。20美元有支撑。该股已突破近八年高点。</blockquote> Buy 3 MX Apr (16th) 20 calls at a price of 3.25 or less.<blockquote>以3.25或更低的价格购买3 MX Apr（16日）20评级。</blockquote> MX: 21.20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; April (16th) 20 calls: 3.10 bid, 3.40 asked<blockquote>MX：21.20 4月（16日）20评级：3.10买价，3.40卖价</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49fc77fdc0a57a5d3bb7f7c557a1dc1\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"690\"><blockquote></blockquote> Previous recommendation:we are going to withdraw the recommendation of a “new highs vs. new lows” sell signal.&nbsp; New lows are back to single digits, while new highs are multitudinous.&nbsp; So, the recommendation – while technically still a valid one – is canceled because the chances of it occurring now are too small.&nbsp; We will reinstate it when it becomes more viable.<blockquote>以前的建议：我们将撤回“新高对新低”卖出信号的建议。新低回到个位数，而新高众多。因此，这个建议——尽管从技术上来说仍然是有效的——被取消了，因为它现在发生的可能性太小了。当它变得更加可行时，我们将恢复它。</blockquote> Follow-up action:<blockquote>后续行动：</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote> Long 500 CLIR common stock:the stop remains at 4.13.<blockquote>多头500 CLIR普通股：止损点仍为4.13。</blockquote> Long 5 IVZ Mar (19th) 22 calls:the stop remains at 22.50.<blockquote>龙5 IVZ 3月（19日）22日评级：止损点仍为22.50。</blockquote> undefinedthis trade is based on the 20-day Historical Volatility sell signal.&nbsp; This trade will be stopped out if the 20-day HV of SPX falls back below 9%.<blockquote>未定义此交易基于20天历史波动率卖出信号。如果SPX的20天HV回落到9%以下，则该交易将被停止。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY Mar (19th) 390 put and Short 1 SPY Mar (19th) 360 put:This trade was established in line with the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 3月（19日）390看跌和空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 3月（19日）360看跌：该交易是根据麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号建立的</blockquote> January 15th.It would be stopped out if SPX were to once again closeabovethe +4σ Band.&nbsp; Of course, that would then set up another potential MVB sell signal down the road.<blockquote>1月15日。如果SPX再次关闭，它将被阻止上面+4 σ波段。当然，这将在未来建立另一个潜在的MVB卖出信号。</blockquote> Long 0 ZNGA Mar (19th) 11 calls:these call were stopped out on March 5th.<blockquote>长0 ZNGA 3月（19日）11评级：这些看涨期权在3月5日被叫停。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY Mar (12th) 391 put and Short 1 SPY Mar (12th) 361 put:this position was bought at the close of trading on February 18th, when the number of declining issues outnumbered advancing issues on the NYSE by 1200 total issues:&nbsp; Close it out if SPX closesabove3950.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 3月（12日）391看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 3月（12日）361看跌：该头寸是在2月18日收盘时买入的，当时纽约证券交易所下跌股数量比上涨股数量多1200股：如果SPX收盘，则平仓上面3950.</blockquote> Long 4 AJRD1 Mar (19th) 50 calls:hold without a stop initially, to see how LMT handles the potential FTC problem. AJRD has declared a special dividend of $5.00 per share. The ex-date for this special dividend was March 9th.&nbsp; Option holders will be kept intact for the dividend.&nbsp; That is, on March 9th, the symbol for an AJRD option will change to AJRD1, and it will be exercisable into the strike price (which will remain unchanged) plus $500 in cash.&nbsp; The stock price itself will drop by $5 on March 9th, and therefore the net effect to an option holder is zero change. The takeover price that Lockheed-Martin (LMT) will pay will be reduced from the current $56 to $51.<blockquote>龙4 AJRD1 Mar(19日)50评级：一开始不要停下来，看看LMT如何处理潜在的FTC问题。AJRD宣布派发每股5.00美元的特别股息。这次特别股息的除息日是3月9日。期权持有人的股息将保持不变。也就是说，在3月9日，AJRD期权的符号将更改为AJRD1，它将可行使为执行价格（将保持不变）加上500美元现金。股价本身将在3月9日下跌5美元，因此对期权持有人的净影响为零变化。洛克希德-马丁公司（LMT）将支付的收购价格将从目前的56美元降至51美元。</blockquote> If that all seems confusing, this might help: with AJRD trading at 46, after the special dividend, theintrinsic valueof the AJRD1 Mar (19th) 50 call is equal to the price of AJRD minus 50 (the strike) + 5 (the dividend).&nbsp; In this case, with ADJRD = 46, the intrinsic value is 1 (46 – 50 +5).<blockquote>如果这一切看起来令人困惑，这可能会有所帮助：特别股息后，AJRD的交易价格为46美元，内在价值AJRD1 3月（19日）50看涨期权等于AJRD的价格减去50（执行）+5（股息）。在这种情况下，ADJRD=46，内在值为1（46-50+5）。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY Mar (26th) 382 puts and Short 2 SPY Mar (26th) 340 puts:this position was established at the close of trading on February 25th, when SPX closed below 3870.&nbsp; Also, note that there were no 341 or 342 strikes for this expiration, so the 340 puts were sold instead. Stop yourself out SPX closesabove3950.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 3月（26日）382看跌期权和空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 3月（26日）340看跌期权：该头寸是在2月25日收盘时建立的，当时SPX收于3870以下。另外，请注意，本次到期没有341或342次行使，因此340看跌期权被出售。阻止自己退出SPX收盘上面3950.</blockquote> Long 2 SPY April (9th) 377.5 calls and Short 2 SPY April (9th) 392.5 calls:this position was taken in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of March 4th.&nbsp; It will remain in place for 22 days, unless stopped out by a return to “spiking mode” by VIX (a gain of at least 3.00 points by VIX – usingclosingprices – over any 1-, 2-, or 3-day period).&nbsp; If it stopped out in that manner, then prepare to take the next buy signal, according to the rules that were laid out in last week’s newsletter.<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 4月（9日）377.5评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 4月（9日）392.5评级：这个位置是根据3月4日VIX“尖峰”买入信号建立的。它将保持22天，除非VIX恢复到“尖峰模式”（VIX至少上涨3.00点-使用关闭价格-任何1天、2天或3天）。如果它以这种方式停止，那么根据上周时事通讯中列出的规则，准备接受下一个买入信号。</blockquote>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market is behaving in mysterious ways — is it bullish, bearish or something else?<blockquote>股市正以神秘的方式表现——是看涨、看跌还是其他？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market is behaving in mysterious ways — is it bullish, bearish or something else?<blockquote>股市正以神秘的方式表现——是看涨、看跌还是其他？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-03-12 16:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe “stodgy” side of the market is leading, while volatility is unusually high.<blockquote>市场“乏味”的一面处于领先地位，而波动性异常高。</blockquote> The stock market is doing something unusual, especially in these volatile times: It’s being led by the “old” and “stodgy” stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.<blockquote>股市正在做一些不寻常的事情，尤其是在这个动荡的时期：它由道琼斯工业平均指数中“老”和“乏味”的股票引领。</blockquote> The Dow has hit record highs for three days, up about 1,400 points in the past four trading days to over 32,000.&nbsp; No other major index has followed along, although the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and the Russell 2000&nbsp;are not far away from new all-time highs of their own.&nbsp; The Nasdaq&nbsp;is lagging.<blockquote>道指已连续三天创下历史新高，过去四个交易日上涨约1400点，至32,000点上方。没有其他主要指数紧随其后，尽管标普500和罗素2000指数距离自己的历史新高也不远。纳斯达克落后了。</blockquote> So, is this bullish, bearish or indifferent? It probably depends on the situation, but there is an old saying that when the generals are leading the advance, it’s not a good sign for the stock market.<blockquote>那么，这是看涨、看跌还是无动于衷？这可能取决于情况，但有一句老话，当将军们领先时，这对股市来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote> That saying refers to a time when General Electric,General Motors&nbsp;and other “generals” were the mainstays of the Dow, so you can see how old it is.&nbsp; It is really just a way of saying that when the majority of stocks are weakening andnotmaking new highs, it’s not a good sign when only 30 stocks are leading the way.<blockquote>这句话指的是通用电气、通用汽车和其他“将军”是道琼斯指数的中流砥柱的时期，所以你可以看到它有多老。这实际上只是一种说法，当大多数股票都在疲软和不创出新高，当只有30只股票领先时，这并不是一个好兆头。</blockquote> Institutional investors pile into stocks<blockquote>机构投资者涌入股票</blockquote> We have different (hopefully better) ways of measuring divergence these days — specifically,cumulativebreadth indicators, new highs vs. new lows, etc., so we don’t have to “stretch” to draw a conclusion about the Dow today.<blockquote>如今，我们有不同的（希望更好的）方法来衡量分歧——具体来说，积累的广度指标、新高vs新低等，所以我们不必“拉长”就能对今天的道指下结论。</blockquote> I&nbsp;will&nbsp;say that the buyers of these Dow stocks are not the Robinhood crowd but are the “big boys” — institutional investors — and they are piling in like mad.<blockquote>我将会假设这些道琼斯指数股票的买家不是罗宾汉人群，而是“大男孩”——机构投资者——他们正在疯狂涌入。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff6c28bda1e0871bca1038e3ff2794f\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"694\"><blockquote></blockquote> In any case, we usually use the S&amp;P 500 as the measure of the broad stock market.&nbsp;The index is being dragged somewhat higher by the Dow stocks, as they are all big components of the S&amp;P 500.&nbsp; Even so, the S&amp;P 500 continues to run into resistance in the same area: 3,870 to 3,950 points.<blockquote>无论如何，我们通常用标普500来衡量整个股市。该指数被道琼斯指数拉高，因为它们都是标普500的重要组成部分。即便如此，标普500继续在同一区域遇到阻力：3870至3950点。</blockquote> A move above 3,950 — it’s close today — would be a new all-time high and bullish, requiring a “reset” of all the indicators.<blockquote>突破3,950点（今天接近）将是一个新的历史高点和看涨，需要“重置”所有指标。</blockquote> Lacking that, the bears still have a chance to gain some leverage. It would not be surprising to see the S&amp;P 500 remain in the broad trading range of 3,630 to 3,950.&nbsp; There is also support within that range, in the 3,700-3,725 area, where the S&amp;P 500 bottomed out in both late January and early March.&nbsp; A move below 3,630 would be extremely bearish.<blockquote>如果没有这一点，空头仍然有机会获得一些杠杆。看到标普500保持在3,630至3,950的广泛交易区间并不奇怪。在该区间内也有支撑，在3,700-3,725区域，标普500在1月底和3月初都见底。跌破3,630将是极其看跌的。</blockquote> Volatility off the charts<blockquote>波动性爆表</blockquote> Finally, it should be noted that intraday volatility has been very extreme in the past couple of weeks. The Market Insight segment of this newsletter has some views on that subject.<blockquote>最后，应该指出的是，过去几周盘中波动非常剧烈。这份时事通讯的市场洞察部分对这个主题有一些看法。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios are moving steadily higher and that puts them solidly on sell signals. Even so, they are still at very low levels on their charts, meaning that they are overbought.&nbsp;They are trying to work off this overbought condition, which will eventually lead to a healthier market. But they have plenty of room to move higher and will remain on these sell signals as long as they are rising.<blockquote>仅股票的看跌看涨期权比率正在稳步上升，这使它们坚定地发出卖出信号。即便如此，它们在图表上仍然处于非常低的水平，这意味着它们已经超买。他们正试图摆脱这种超买状态，这最终将导致一个更健康的市场。但他们有足够的空间走高，只要价格上涨，他们就会保持这些卖出信号。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7846c518e23ce749856330f13a70330e\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"694\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906c4724fbba47f1f91965cf90a4f39\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\"><blockquote></blockquote> Market breadth has improved tremendously over the past four trading days. At the market’s recent lows March 4, “stocks only” breadth had descended into a true oversold condition.&nbsp;Thus, the improvement in breadth this week has produced a solid buy signal. Both breadth oscillators are now back into modestly overbought territory (and on buy signals). Thecumulativebreadth indicators are improving but have not recovered enough to reach new all-time highs.<blockquote>在过去的四个交易日里，市场广度有了巨大的改善。在3月4日市场的近期低点，“仅股票”广度已经陷入真正的超卖状态。因此，本周广度的改善产生了一个坚实的买入信号。两个宽度振荡器现在都回到了适度超买的区域（并且是买入信号）。The积累的广度指标正在改善，但尚未恢复到足以达到历史新高的程度。</blockquote> New 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows remains a bullish indicator.&nbsp;There was a close call about a week ago, when the NYSE data almost produced a sell signal. But it did not, and now the number of new lows on the NYSE has descended back into single digits, while the number of new highs is exploding on this rally.<blockquote>52周新高vs 52周新低仍是看涨指标，大约一周前曾出现过接近看涨期权，当时纽交所数据几乎产生卖出信号。但事实并非如此，现在纽约证券交易所的新低数量已回落至个位数，而新高数量在这次反弹中呈爆炸式增长。</blockquote> Volatility remains high, as VIX&nbsp;continues to trade well above 20. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place and will continue to do so until early April, unless it is stopped out by VIX spiking higher once again. VIX is back below its 200-day moving average. Also, the 20-day moving average is below the 200-day.&nbsp; Thus, the&nbsp;trend&nbsp;of VIX remains downward, and that is bullish for stocks too.<blockquote>波动性仍然很高，VIX继续远高于20。3月4日的VIX“峰值”买入信号仍然存在，并将持续到4月初，除非它被VIX再次飙升所阻止。VIX回到200日移动均线下方。此外，20日移动平均线低于200日移动平均线。因此，VIX的趋势仍然向下，这对股市也有利。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d81c77cbb812456c7d2d68174489bc29\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"690\"><blockquote></blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives has remained solidly bullish for some time. In the last couple of weeks, when other indicators were (are) weakening, this construct — along with the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator — remained the bulls’ best friend.<blockquote>一段时间以来，波动性衍生品的结构一直保持坚定看涨。在过去几周，当其他指标走弱时，这一结构以及“新高与新低”指标仍然是多头最好的朋友。</blockquote> The April VIX futures are now trading with a large premium over the March VIX futures. As long as that remains the case, it is a bullish sign for stocks. The March futures expire next week — on March16 — so the “torch” will pass to April as the front month.<blockquote>4月VIX期货目前的交易价格较3月VIX期货大幅溢价。只要情况仍然如此，这对股市来说就是一个看涨信号。3月份期货将于下周（3月16日）到期，因此“火炬”将传递到4月份。</blockquote> At that time, we will begin looking at the relationship between April and May futures. It is bullish as well, as May futures are trading about 1.50 over the price of April futures. The term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too.&nbsp; All of these are currently bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>届时，我们将开始看4月和5月期货之间的关系。这也是看涨的，因为5月份期货的交易价格比4月份期货的价格高出约1.50。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也向上倾斜。所有这些目前都是股市看涨的迹象。</blockquote> In summary, the S&amp;P 500 is still running into resistance and, as long as that is the case, there is a chance that it’s still in its trading range and could retest the lows of the range.&nbsp;A breakout above 3,950 would be bullish (and likewise, a breakdownbelow3,630 would be bearish).<blockquote>总而言之，标普500仍在遇到阻力，只要是这种情况，它就有可能仍处于交易区间，并可能重新测试该区间的低点。突破3,950点将是看涨的（同样，突破以下3,630将是看跌的）。</blockquote> Market Insight: Intraday volatility explodes<blockquote>市场洞察：盘中波动爆发</blockquote> Over the past 12 trading days, intraday volatility has been extreme in the major averages. That is unusual in a market that is moving sideways or even up. Yes, in a bear market, such as we saw a year ago, extreme volatility is to be expected. But over these past 12 days, the S&amp;P 500 is up 22 points — not much, but up nonetheless.<blockquote>在过去的12个交易日中，主要平均指数的盘中波动非常剧烈。这在横盘整理甚至上涨的市场中是不寻常的。是的，在熊市中，就像我们一年前看到的那样，极端的波动是可以预料的。但在过去的12天里，标普500上涨了22点——虽然不多，但还是上涨了。</blockquote> However, the average true range is 80 points per day. “True range” measures not just the trading day’s difference between its high and its low, but if the market gapped higher, for example, it includes that gap.<blockquote>然而，平均真实范围是每天80点。“真实区间”不仅衡量交易日高点和低点之间的差异，例如，如果市场跳空走高，它也包括该跳空。</blockquote> Suppose the S&amp;P 500 closed at 3,800 one day.&nbsp;Then, suppose it opens on a gap higher at 3,850 the next day, and continues on to 3,900 on that same day.&nbsp;The true range would be 100 points (3,900–3,800) because that’s how much the market moved from its previous close to the next day’s high.<blockquote>假设标普500有一天收于3800点。然后，假设第二天它在3850点的缺口高开，并在同一天继续上涨到3900点。真实的区间应该是100点（3900-3800），因为这是市场从前一收盘到第二天高点的移动幅度。</blockquote> We have seen three such upside gaps in the past 12 days, along with plenty of intraday volatility in stocks, and that makes the average true range (ATR) 80 points — or 2% per day.&nbsp;For the S&amp;P 500 to move 80 points on any day is a big move, and for it toaveragethat much over 12 consecutive trading days is unheard of.<blockquote>在过去的12天里，我们已经看到了三个这样的上行缺口，以及股票的大量盘中波动，这使得平均真实区间(ATR)为80点，即每天2%。对于标普500来说，任何一天移动80点都是一个很大的移动，对于它来说均值连续超过12个交易日是闻所未闻的。</blockquote> Some analysts are fearful that this is a sign of over-speculation and “gambling” in the stock market.&nbsp;Others accept it for what it is and deal with it. Short-term traders love it. Fundamental analysts trying to assess the worth of a company hate it, because if a company’s stock is “worth” $X, how can it move large percentages in the blink of an eye?<blockquote>一些分析师担心这是股市过度投机和“赌博”的迹象。其他人接受它的本来面目，并处理它。短线交易者喜欢它。试图评估一家公司价值的基本面分析师讨厌它，因为如果一家公司的股票“价值”X美元，它怎么能在眨眼之间大幅波动呢？</blockquote> That question alone should lead one to be wary of fundamental analysis. As options traders, it should work to our benefit. This is a major reason why VIX has remained so high, even though most indices have been making new all-time highs with great frequency since last November.<blockquote>仅这个问题就应该让人们对基本面分析保持警惕。作为期权交易者，这应该对我们有利。这是VIX保持如此高的主要原因，尽管自去年11月以来，大多数指数都在频繁地创下历史新高。</blockquote> New recommendation: MagnaChip Semi<blockquote>新推荐：MagnaChip Semi</blockquote> MagnaChip Semiconductor&nbsp;is a takeover rumor. Stock volume patterns are extremely strong and improving rapidly. Moreover, options implied volatility has increased sharply. There is support at $20. The stock has broken out to a nearly eight-year high.<blockquote>MagnaChip半导体是收购传闻。存量模式极其强劲，并且正在迅速改善。而且，期权隐含波动率大幅上升。20美元有支撑。该股已突破近八年高点。</blockquote> Buy 3 MX Apr (16th) 20 calls at a price of 3.25 or less.<blockquote>以3.25或更低的价格购买3 MX Apr（16日）20评级。</blockquote> MX: 21.20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; April (16th) 20 calls: 3.10 bid, 3.40 asked<blockquote>MX：21.20 4月（16日）20评级：3.10买价，3.40卖价</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49fc77fdc0a57a5d3bb7f7c557a1dc1\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"690\"><blockquote></blockquote> Previous recommendation:we are going to withdraw the recommendation of a “new highs vs. new lows” sell signal.&nbsp; New lows are back to single digits, while new highs are multitudinous.&nbsp; So, the recommendation – while technically still a valid one – is canceled because the chances of it occurring now are too small.&nbsp; We will reinstate it when it becomes more viable.<blockquote>以前的建议：我们将撤回“新高对新低”卖出信号的建议。新低回到个位数，而新高众多。因此，这个建议——尽管从技术上来说仍然是有效的——被取消了，因为它现在发生的可能性太小了。当它变得更加可行时，我们将恢复它。</blockquote> Follow-up action:<blockquote>后续行动：</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有停止都是精神关闭停止。</blockquote> Long 500 CLIR common stock:the stop remains at 4.13.<blockquote>多头500 CLIR普通股：止损点仍为4.13。</blockquote> Long 5 IVZ Mar (19th) 22 calls:the stop remains at 22.50.<blockquote>龙5 IVZ 3月（19日）22日评级：止损点仍为22.50。</blockquote> undefinedthis trade is based on the 20-day Historical Volatility sell signal.&nbsp; This trade will be stopped out if the 20-day HV of SPX falls back below 9%.<blockquote>未定义此交易基于20天历史波动率卖出信号。如果SPX的20天HV回落到9%以下，则该交易将被停止。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY Mar (19th) 390 put and Short 1 SPY Mar (19th) 360 put:This trade was established in line with the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 3月（19日）390看跌和空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 3月（19日）360看跌：该交易是根据麦克米兰波动带(MVB)卖出信号建立的</blockquote> January 15th.It would be stopped out if SPX were to once again closeabovethe +4σ Band.&nbsp; Of course, that would then set up another potential MVB sell signal down the road.<blockquote>1月15日。如果SPX再次关闭，它将被阻止上面+4 σ波段。当然，这将在未来建立另一个潜在的MVB卖出信号。</blockquote> Long 0 ZNGA Mar (19th) 11 calls:these call were stopped out on March 5th.<blockquote>长0 ZNGA 3月（19日）11评级：这些看涨期权在3月5日被叫停。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY Mar (12th) 391 put and Short 1 SPY Mar (12th) 361 put:this position was bought at the close of trading on February 18th, when the number of declining issues outnumbered advancing issues on the NYSE by 1200 total issues:&nbsp; Close it out if SPX closesabove3950.<blockquote>多头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 3月（12日）391看跌空头1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 3月（12日）361看跌：该头寸是在2月18日收盘时买入的，当时纽约证券交易所下跌股数量比上涨股数量多1200股：如果SPX收盘，则平仓上面3950.</blockquote> Long 4 AJRD1 Mar (19th) 50 calls:hold without a stop initially, to see how LMT handles the potential FTC problem. AJRD has declared a special dividend of $5.00 per share. The ex-date for this special dividend was March 9th.&nbsp; Option holders will be kept intact for the dividend.&nbsp; That is, on March 9th, the symbol for an AJRD option will change to AJRD1, and it will be exercisable into the strike price (which will remain unchanged) plus $500 in cash.&nbsp; The stock price itself will drop by $5 on March 9th, and therefore the net effect to an option holder is zero change. The takeover price that Lockheed-Martin (LMT) will pay will be reduced from the current $56 to $51.<blockquote>龙4 AJRD1 Mar(19日)50评级：一开始不要停下来，看看LMT如何处理潜在的FTC问题。AJRD宣布派发每股5.00美元的特别股息。这次特别股息的除息日是3月9日。期权持有人的股息将保持不变。也就是说，在3月9日，AJRD期权的符号将更改为AJRD1，它将可行使为执行价格（将保持不变）加上500美元现金。股价本身将在3月9日下跌5美元，因此对期权持有人的净影响为零变化。洛克希德-马丁公司（LMT）将支付的收购价格将从目前的56美元降至51美元。</blockquote> If that all seems confusing, this might help: with AJRD trading at 46, after the special dividend, theintrinsic valueof the AJRD1 Mar (19th) 50 call is equal to the price of AJRD minus 50 (the strike) + 5 (the dividend).&nbsp; In this case, with ADJRD = 46, the intrinsic value is 1 (46 – 50 +5).<blockquote>如果这一切看起来令人困惑，这可能会有所帮助：特别股息后，AJRD的交易价格为46美元，内在价值AJRD1 3月（19日）50看涨期权等于AJRD的价格减去50（执行）+5（股息）。在这种情况下，ADJRD=46，内在值为1（46-50+5）。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY Mar (26th) 382 puts and Short 2 SPY Mar (26th) 340 puts:this position was established at the close of trading on February 25th, when SPX closed below 3870.&nbsp; Also, note that there were no 341 or 342 strikes for this expiration, so the 340 puts were sold instead. Stop yourself out SPX closesabove3950.<blockquote>多头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 3月（26日）382看跌期权和空头2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 3月（26日）340看跌期权：该头寸是在2月25日收盘时建立的，当时SPX收于3870以下。另外，请注意，本次到期没有341或342次行使，因此340看跌期权被出售。阻止自己退出SPX收盘上面3950.</blockquote> Long 2 SPY April (9th) 377.5 calls and Short 2 SPY April (9th) 392.5 calls:this position was taken in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of March 4th.&nbsp; It will remain in place for 22 days, unless stopped out by a return to “spiking mode” by VIX (a gain of at least 3.00 points by VIX – usingclosingprices – over any 1-, 2-, or 3-day period).&nbsp; If it stopped out in that manner, then prepare to take the next buy signal, according to the rules that were laid out in last week’s newsletter.<blockquote>多2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 4月（9日）377.5评级空2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 4月（9日）392.5评级：这个位置是根据3月4日VIX“尖峰”买入信号建立的。它将保持22天，除非VIX恢复到“尖峰模式”（VIX至少上涨3.00点-使用关闭价格-任何1天、2天或3天）。如果它以这种方式停止，那么根据上周时事通讯中列出的规则，准备接受下一个买入信号。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-behaving-in-mysterious-ways-is-it-bullish-bearish-or-something-else-11615496401?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VIX":"标普500波动率指数","MX":"Magnachip Semiconductor",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-behaving-in-mysterious-ways-is-it-bullish-bearish-or-something-else-11615496401?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1175382688","content_text":"The “stodgy” side of the market is leading, while volatility is unusually high.\nThe stock market is doing something unusual, especially in these volatile times: It’s being led by the “old” and “stodgy” stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nThe Dow has hit record highs for three days, up about 1,400 points in the past four trading days to over 32,000.  No other major index has followed along, although the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are not far away from new all-time highs of their own.  The Nasdaq is lagging.\nSo, is this bullish, bearish or indifferent? It probably depends on the situation, but there is an old saying that when the generals are leading the advance, it’s not a good sign for the stock market.\nThat saying refers to a time when General Electric,General Motors and other “generals” were the mainstays of the Dow, so you can see how old it is.  It is really just a way of saying that when the majority of stocks are weakening andnotmaking new highs, it’s not a good sign when only 30 stocks are leading the way.\nInstitutional investors pile into stocks\nWe have different (hopefully better) ways of measuring divergence these days — specifically,cumulativebreadth indicators, new highs vs. new lows, etc., so we don’t have to “stretch” to draw a conclusion about the Dow today.\nI will say that the buyers of these Dow stocks are not the Robinhood crowd but are the “big boys” — institutional investors — and they are piling in like mad.\n\nIn any case, we usually use the S&P 500 as the measure of the broad stock market. The index is being dragged somewhat higher by the Dow stocks, as they are all big components of the S&P 500.  Even so, the S&P 500 continues to run into resistance in the same area: 3,870 to 3,950 points.\nA move above 3,950 — it’s close today — would be a new all-time high and bullish, requiring a “reset” of all the indicators.\nLacking that, the bears still have a chance to gain some leverage. It would not be surprising to see the S&P 500 remain in the broad trading range of 3,630 to 3,950.  There is also support within that range, in the 3,700-3,725 area, where the S&P 500 bottomed out in both late January and early March.  A move below 3,630 would be extremely bearish.\nVolatility off the charts\nFinally, it should be noted that intraday volatility has been very extreme in the past couple of weeks. The Market Insight segment of this newsletter has some views on that subject.\nEquity-only put-call ratios are moving steadily higher and that puts them solidly on sell signals. Even so, they are still at very low levels on their charts, meaning that they are overbought. They are trying to work off this overbought condition, which will eventually lead to a healthier market. But they have plenty of room to move higher and will remain on these sell signals as long as they are rising.\n\nMarket breadth has improved tremendously over the past four trading days. At the market’s recent lows March 4, “stocks only” breadth had descended into a true oversold condition. Thus, the improvement in breadth this week has produced a solid buy signal. Both breadth oscillators are now back into modestly overbought territory (and on buy signals). Thecumulativebreadth indicators are improving but have not recovered enough to reach new all-time highs.\nNew 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows remains a bullish indicator. There was a close call about a week ago, when the NYSE data almost produced a sell signal. But it did not, and now the number of new lows on the NYSE has descended back into single digits, while the number of new highs is exploding on this rally.\nVolatility remains high, as VIX continues to trade well above 20. The VIX “spike peak” buy signal of March 4 remains in place and will continue to do so until early April, unless it is stopped out by VIX spiking higher once again. VIX is back below its 200-day moving average. Also, the 20-day moving average is below the 200-day.  Thus, the trend of VIX remains downward, and that is bullish for stocks too.\n\nThe construct of volatility derivatives has remained solidly bullish for some time. In the last couple of weeks, when other indicators were (are) weakening, this construct — along with the “new highs vs. new lows” indicator — remained the bulls’ best friend.\nThe April VIX futures are now trading with a large premium over the March VIX futures. As long as that remains the case, it is a bullish sign for stocks. The March futures expire next week — on March16 — so the “torch” will pass to April as the front month.\nAt that time, we will begin looking at the relationship between April and May futures. It is bullish as well, as May futures are trading about 1.50 over the price of April futures. The term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too.  All of these are currently bullish signs for stocks.\nIn summary, the S&P 500 is still running into resistance and, as long as that is the case, there is a chance that it’s still in its trading range and could retest the lows of the range. A breakout above 3,950 would be bullish (and likewise, a breakdownbelow3,630 would be bearish).\nMarket Insight: Intraday volatility explodes\nOver the past 12 trading days, intraday volatility has been extreme in the major averages. That is unusual in a market that is moving sideways or even up. Yes, in a bear market, such as we saw a year ago, extreme volatility is to be expected. But over these past 12 days, the S&P 500 is up 22 points — not much, but up nonetheless.\nHowever, the average true range is 80 points per day. “True range” measures not just the trading day’s difference between its high and its low, but if the market gapped higher, for example, it includes that gap.\nSuppose the S&P 500 closed at 3,800 one day. Then, suppose it opens on a gap higher at 3,850 the next day, and continues on to 3,900 on that same day. The true range would be 100 points (3,900–3,800) because that’s how much the market moved from its previous close to the next day’s high.\nWe have seen three such upside gaps in the past 12 days, along with plenty of intraday volatility in stocks, and that makes the average true range (ATR) 80 points — or 2% per day. For the S&P 500 to move 80 points on any day is a big move, and for it toaveragethat much over 12 consecutive trading days is unheard of.\nSome analysts are fearful that this is a sign of over-speculation and “gambling” in the stock market. Others accept it for what it is and deal with it. Short-term traders love it. Fundamental analysts trying to assess the worth of a company hate it, because if a company’s stock is “worth” $X, how can it move large percentages in the blink of an eye?\nThat question alone should lead one to be wary of fundamental analysis. As options traders, it should work to our benefit. This is a major reason why VIX has remained so high, even though most indices have been making new all-time highs with great frequency since last November.\nNew recommendation: MagnaChip Semi\nMagnaChip Semiconductor is a takeover rumor. Stock volume patterns are extremely strong and improving rapidly. Moreover, options implied volatility has increased sharply. There is support at $20. The stock has broken out to a nearly eight-year high.\nBuy 3 MX Apr (16th) 20 calls at a price of 3.25 or less.\nMX: 21.20                   April (16th) 20 calls: 3.10 bid, 3.40 asked\n\nPrevious recommendation:we are going to withdraw the recommendation of a “new highs vs. new lows” sell signal.  New lows are back to single digits, while new highs are multitudinous.  So, the recommendation – while technically still a valid one – is canceled because the chances of it occurring now are too small.  We will reinstate it when it becomes more viable.\nFollow-up action:\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 500 CLIR common stock:the stop remains at 4.13.\nLong 5 IVZ Mar (19th) 22 calls:the stop remains at 22.50.\nundefinedthis trade is based on the 20-day Historical Volatility sell signal.  This trade will be stopped out if the 20-day HV of SPX falls back below 9%.\nLong 1 SPY Mar (19th) 390 put and Short 1 SPY Mar (19th) 360 put:This trade was established in line with the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of\nJanuary 15th.It would be stopped out if SPX were to once again closeabovethe +4σ Band.  Of course, that would then set up another potential MVB sell signal down the road.\nLong 0 ZNGA Mar (19th) 11 calls:these call were stopped out on March 5th.\nLong 1 SPY Mar (12th) 391 put and Short 1 SPY Mar (12th) 361 put:this position was bought at the close of trading on February 18th, when the number of declining issues outnumbered advancing issues on the NYSE by 1200 total issues:  Close it out if SPX closesabove3950.\nLong 4 AJRD1 Mar (19th) 50 calls:hold without a stop initially, to see how LMT handles the potential FTC problem. AJRD has declared a special dividend of $5.00 per share. The ex-date for this special dividend was March 9th.  Option holders will be kept intact for the dividend.  That is, on March 9th, the symbol for an AJRD option will change to AJRD1, and it will be exercisable into the strike price (which will remain unchanged) plus $500 in cash.  The stock price itself will drop by $5 on March 9th, and therefore the net effect to an option holder is zero change. The takeover price that Lockheed-Martin (LMT) will pay will be reduced from the current $56 to $51.\nIf that all seems confusing, this might help: with AJRD trading at 46, after the special dividend, theintrinsic valueof the AJRD1 Mar (19th) 50 call is equal to the price of AJRD minus 50 (the strike) + 5 (the dividend).  In this case, with ADJRD = 46, the intrinsic value is 1 (46 – 50 +5).\nLong 2 SPY Mar (26th) 382 puts and Short 2 SPY Mar (26th) 340 puts:this position was established at the close of trading on February 25th, when SPX closed below 3870.  Also, note that there were no 341 or 342 strikes for this expiration, so the 340 puts were sold instead. Stop yourself out SPX closesabove3950.\nLong 2 SPY April (9th) 377.5 calls and Short 2 SPY April (9th) 392.5 calls:this position was taken in line with the VIX “spike peak” buy signal of March 4th.  It will remain in place for 22 days, unless stopped out by a return to “spiking mode” by VIX (a gain of at least 3.00 points by VIX – usingclosingprices – over any 1-, 2-, or 3-day period).  If it stopped out in that manner, then prepare to take the next buy signal, according to the rules that were laid out in last week’s newsletter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"VIX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":19,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/328517294"}