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2021-03-08
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A Stock Market Crash May Be Coming: 6 Metrics You'll Want to Know<blockquote>股市崩盘可能即将到来：您想了解的 6 个指标</blockquote>
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But make no mistake about it, crashes and corrections are an inevitable part of the investing cycle, and some would say the price of admission to the greatest wealth-creating tool on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>由于情绪是短期价格变动的主要驱动因素，我们永远无法准确知道崩盘或调整何时到来。但毫无疑问，崩溃和调整是投资周期不可避免的一部分，有人会说这是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造工具的代价。</blockquote></p><p> With this in mind, here are six stock market crash metrics every investor should have in mind.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，以下是每个投资者都应该记住的六个股市崩盘指标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. A Shiller P/E greater than 30 leads to a bear market, historically</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 历史上，席勒市盈率大于 30 会导致熊市</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted, the market doesn't often give us telltale signs that a crash is coming. One of the very few indicators that, thus far, has apretty immaculate track record of calling crashesis the Shiller S&P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. It's a P/E ratio based on inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，市场并不经常给我们带来崩盘即将到来的明显迹象。到目前为止，席勒·标普500市盈率（P/E）是极少数几个拥有完美记录的指标之一。这是基于过去 10 年通胀调整后收益的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past 150 years, the average Shiller P/E reading is 16.79. As of March 3, 2021, the Shiller P/E stood at 34.59 --more than double the historic average.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的150年里，席勒的平均市盈率为16.79。截至2021年3月3日，席勒市盈率为34.59，是历史平均水平的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Here's where it gets interesting. There have been only five bull market rallies in history where the Shiller P/E for the S&P 500 surpassed 30 and held for a period of time. A few of these periods might ring a bell, such as the Great Depression, the dot-com bubble, and the coronavirus crash. Admittedly, the March 2020 crash had nothing to do with valuations and was purely a response to a once-in-a-generation pandemic. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the fact that the four previous instances of the Shiller P/E surpassing 30 have led to declines in the S&P 500 ranging between 20% and 89%.</p><p><blockquote>这就是有趣的地方。历史上只有五次牛市反弹标普500的席勒市盈率超过30并持续一段时间。其中一些时期可能会敲响警钟，例如大萧条、互联网泡沫和冠状病毒崩溃。诚然，2020 年 3 月的崩盘与估值无关，纯粹是对百年一遇的疫情的回应。然而，这并不能改变这样一个事实，即之前四次席勒市盈率超过30导致标普500下降20%至89%。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, history suggests that when the Shiller P/E heads above 30, a decline or a full-on bear market soon follows.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，历史表明，当席勒市盈率高于30时，下跌或全面熊市很快就会随之而来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Corrections occur every 1.87 years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 每1.87年进行一次修正</b></blockquote></p><p> No matter what sort of decline awaits investors in the future, it's important to recognize just how common these downward moves in the stock market are.</p><p><blockquote>无论未来等待投资者的是什么样的下跌，重要的是要认识到股市的这些下跌趋势有多普遍。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from market analytics company Yardeni Research, there have been 38 declines of at least 10% in the widely followedS&P 500since the beginning of 1950. Over this 71-year span, we're talking about a double-digit decline every 1.87 years, on average.</p><p><blockquote>根据市场分析公司 Yardeni Research 的数据，自 1950 年初以来，广受关注的标准普尔 500 指数已经出现了 38 次至少 10% 的下跌。在这 71 年的时间里，我们平均每 1.87 年就会出现两位数的下降。</blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind that averages are exactly that -- averages. There have been long periods in which corrections were few and far between. For example, there wasn't a single double-digit crash or correction between 1991 and 1996. By comparison, there have been seven double-digit percentage declines in the past 11 years, with at least eight other drops ranging from 5.8% to 9.9%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，平均值就是平均值。在很长一段时间里，修正很少。例如，1991 年至 1996 年间没有一次两位数的崩盘或修正。相比之下，过去 11 年中有 7 次两位数百分比下降，至少还有 8 次下降，范围从 5.8% 到 9.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Corrections are a healthy and normal occurrence.</p><p><blockquote>矫正是一种健康和正常的现象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. The average correction is six months long</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.平均修正长达六个月</b></blockquote></p><p> Although corrections tend to bum out optimists, here's some good news: Most crashes and corrections don't last very long.</p><p><blockquote>尽管调整往往会让乐观主义者失望，但这里有一些好消息：大多数崩溃和调整不会持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Dating back to 1950, 24 of the S&P 500's 38 double-digit percentage corrections have found their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days (about 3.5 months). It took another seven between 157 and 288 calendar days to hit their trough. This means only seven significant declines in the market lasted longer than a year over the past seven-plus decades.</p><p><blockquote>追溯到 1950 年，标准普尔 500 指数 38 次两位数百分比修正中有 24 次在 104 个或更短的日历日（约 3.5 个月）内触底。又花了157到288个日历日的7个日历日才达到低谷。这意味着在过去七十多年里，只有七次市场大幅下跌持续时间超过一年。</blockquote></p><p> When we add those up, the S&P 500 has spent 7,168 days in correction since 1950. This works out to an average correction length of 188 days, orjust over six months. Compare this figure to the 11-year bull market we just exited, and you can see why it pays to be an optimist.</p><p><blockquote>当我们把这些加起来时，自1950年以来，标普500已经花了7168天进行调整。这意味着平均修正时间为 188 天，也就是六个多月。将这个数字与我们刚刚退出的 11 年牛市进行比较，你就会明白为什么做一个乐观主义者是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Modern-era corrections are a month shorter, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 现代矫正平均缩短一个月</b></blockquote></p><p> Cue the \"but wait -- there's more\" music.</p><p><blockquote>播放“但是等等，还有更多”的音乐。</blockquote></p><p> Even though corrections and crashes have been relatively short-lived over the past 71 years, they're even shorter in the modern era. I'm defining \"modern era\" as the rise of computers, which have assisted immensely with trading and providing supply-demand balance to equities. I'm arbitrarily using 1985 as the beginning of this modern era.</p><p><blockquote>尽管在过去的71年里，修正和崩溃的寿命相对较短，但在现代，它们的寿命甚至更短。我把“现代”定义为计算机的兴起，它极大地帮助了交易，并为股票提供了供需平衡。我武断地把1985年作为这个现代时代的开始。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1985, the S&P 500 has undergone 16 double-digit declines. These include the dot-com bubble, which at 929 calendar days is the longest decline in the benchmark index's history. Even with this outlier, the average length of a crash or correction in the modern era is only 155 days. That's a full month shorter than the historical average for the broad-based index.</p><p><blockquote>自1985年以来，标普500经历了16次两位数的下跌。其中包括互联网泡沫，929个日历日是基准指数历史上最长的下跌。即使有这个异常值，现代崩溃或修正的平均持续时间也只有155天。这比基础广泛的指数的历史平均水平短了整整一个月。</blockquote></p><p> With the internet giving retail investors instant access to information, the barriers that once existed between Wall Street and Main Streethave been torn down. This has played a key role in shortening the length of corrections and crashes.</p><p><blockquote>随着互联网让散户投资者即时获取信息，华尔街和大街之间曾经存在的壁垒已经被打破。这在缩短修正和崩溃的时间方面发挥了关键作用。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>5. 70% of the market's worst days are followed by its best gains</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 70% 的市场最糟糕的日子之后是最好的收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting statistic that's bound to raise an eyebrow or two is the correlation between the stock market's best and worst days. While some folks might be tempted to run for cover at the first sign of trouble, history shows that this isthe worst possible thing to do.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的统计数据肯定会引起一两个人的注意，那就是股市最好的日子和最坏的日子之间的相关性。虽然有些人可能会在遇到麻烦的第一个迹象时就想逃跑，但历史表明，这是最糟糕的做法。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, J.P. Morgan Asset Management released what's become an annual report that examines the rolling 20-year returns of the S&P 500. In particular, J.P. Morgan Asset Management looked at how investors' returns would differ if they missed only a handful of the market's best days over a 20-year period. Between Jan. 3, 2000, and Dec. 31, 2019, missing just the 20 best days would have effectively wiped out a 6% annual average return.</p><p><blockquote>去年，摩根大通资产管理公司发布了一份年度报告，研究了标普500 20 年滚动回报。特别是，摩根大通资产管理公司研究了如果投资者在 20 年内只错过了市场最好的几天，他们的回报会有何不同。在 2000 年 1 月 3 日至 2019 年 12 月 31 日期间，仅仅错过 20 天就会有效地抹去 6% 的年平均回报率。</blockquote></p><p> But what really stands out is how close the S&P 500's best and worst days occur to each other. According to the \"Impact of Being Out of the Market\" report, from Jan. 3, 2000, through April 19, 2020, \"Seven of the ten worst days were followed the NEXT DAY [emphasis by J.P. Morgan Asset Management] by either top 10 returns over the 20 years or top 10 returns for their respective years.\"</p><p><blockquote>但真正引人注目的是标准普尔 500 指数最好的日子和最坏的日子是如何接近的。根据《退出市场的影响》报告，从 2000 年 1 月 3 日到 2020 年 4 月 19 日，“十个最糟糕的日子中有七个是第二天[摩根大通资产管理公司强调] 20 年内的前 10 名回报率或各自年份的前 10 名回报率。”</blockquote></p><p> If you try to game the market, you're the one that gets played.</p><p><blockquote>如果你试图玩弄市场，你就是被玩弄的人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Long-term investors are batting 1.000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6. 长期投资者的目标是 1.000</b></blockquote></p><p> I saved thebest stock market crash metric for last.</p><p><blockquote>我把最好的股市崩盘指标留到了最后。</blockquote></p><p> A bull market rally has eventually put each and every one of these 38 declines in the rearview mirror. And in many instances, it took just weeks or months to erase the declines. For practical purposes, it doesn't matter when you buy during a correction or crash. As long as you buy stakes in an assortment of high-quality, innovative businesses, and you hold those stocks for long periods of time, you have an exceptionally good chance of making money.</p><p><blockquote>牛市反弹最终将这 38 次下跌中的每一次都抛在了后视镜中。在许多情况下，只需要几周或几个月的时间就可以消除下降。出于实际目的，您在回调或崩盘期间买入并不重要。只要你购买各种高质量、创新企业的股份，并长期持有这些股票，你就有非常好的赚钱机会。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further proof, data from Crestmont Research on the S&P 500 shows thatat no pointbetween 1919 and 2019 have rolling 20-year returns on the index ever been negative. In fact, only two ending years out of this 101-year period yielded average annual total returns (that is, including dividends) of less than 5%. If you buy with the intent of holding for a really long time, historical data suggests you're going to do very well.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要进一步的证据，Crestmont Research 对标普500的数据显示，1919 年至 2019 年间，该指数的 20 年滚动回报率从未为负。事实上，在这101年期间中，只有两个年末的平均年总回报率（即包括股息）低于5%。如果你买入的目的是长期持有，历史数据表明你会做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10 stocks that could be the biggest winners of the stock market crash</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10只可能成为股市崩盘最大赢家的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> When investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have an investing tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade,<i>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</i>, has quadrupled the market.*</p><p><blockquote>当投资天才大卫和汤姆·加德纳有投资建议时，倾听是值得的。毕竟，他们办了十多年的时事通讯，<i>Motley Fool 股票顾问</i>，市场翻了两番。*</blockquote></p><p> David and Tom just revealed what they believe are the<b>ten best buys</b>for investors right now… And while timing isn't everything, the history of Tom and David's stock picks shows that it pays to get in early on their best ideas.</p><p><blockquote>大卫和汤姆刚刚透露了他们认为是<b>十大百思买</b>对于现在的投资者来说……虽然时机不是一切，但汤姆和大卫选股的历史表明，尽早提出他们的最佳想法是值得的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Stock Market Crash May Be Coming: 6 Metrics You'll Want to Know<blockquote>股市崩盘可能即将到来：您想了解的 6 个指标</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Stock Market Crash May Be Coming: 6 Metrics You'll Want to Know<blockquote>股市崩盘可能即将到来：您想了解的 6 个指标</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-08 13:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Over the past three weeks, the stock market has sent investors a stern warning: Equities can go down, too.</p><p><blockquote>过去三周，股市向投资者发出严厉警告：股市也可能下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the benchmark<b>S&P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC), iconic<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI), and growth-oriented<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)reveling in record-breaking bounce-back rallies from the March 23, 2020, bear market low, the conditions areripe for a stock market crash.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有基准<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC），图标<b>道琼斯工业指数</b>（DJINDICES:^DJI），以及以增长为导向的<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）自 2020 年 3 月 23 日熊市低点以来，股市崩盘的条件已经成熟。</blockquote></p><p> Since emotion is the primary driver of very short-term price movements, we're never going to know precisely when a crash or correction is coming. But make no mistake about it, crashes and corrections are an inevitable part of the investing cycle, and some would say the price of admission to the greatest wealth-creating tool on the planet.</p><p><blockquote>由于情绪是短期价格变动的主要驱动因素，我们永远无法准确知道崩盘或调整何时到来。但毫无疑问，崩溃和调整是投资周期不可避免的一部分，有人会说这是进入这个星球上最伟大的财富创造工具的代价。</blockquote></p><p> With this in mind, here are six stock market crash metrics every investor should have in mind.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，以下是每个投资者都应该记住的六个股市崩盘指标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. A Shiller P/E greater than 30 leads to a bear market, historically</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 历史上，席勒市盈率大于 30 会导致熊市</b></blockquote></p><p> As noted, the market doesn't often give us telltale signs that a crash is coming. One of the very few indicators that, thus far, has apretty immaculate track record of calling crashesis the Shiller S&P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. It's a P/E ratio based on inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>如前所述，市场并不经常给我们带来崩盘即将到来的明显迹象。到目前为止，席勒·标普500市盈率（P/E）是极少数几个拥有完美记录的指标之一。这是基于过去 10 年通胀调整后收益的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past 150 years, the average Shiller P/E reading is 16.79. As of March 3, 2021, the Shiller P/E stood at 34.59 --more than double the historic average.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的150年里，席勒的平均市盈率为16.79。截至2021年3月3日，席勒市盈率为34.59，是历史平均水平的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Here's where it gets interesting. There have been only five bull market rallies in history where the Shiller P/E for the S&P 500 surpassed 30 and held for a period of time. A few of these periods might ring a bell, such as the Great Depression, the dot-com bubble, and the coronavirus crash. Admittedly, the March 2020 crash had nothing to do with valuations and was purely a response to a once-in-a-generation pandemic. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the fact that the four previous instances of the Shiller P/E surpassing 30 have led to declines in the S&P 500 ranging between 20% and 89%.</p><p><blockquote>这就是有趣的地方。历史上只有五次牛市反弹标普500的席勒市盈率超过30并持续一段时间。其中一些时期可能会敲响警钟，例如大萧条、互联网泡沫和冠状病毒崩溃。诚然，2020 年 3 月的崩盘与估值无关，纯粹是对百年一遇的疫情的回应。然而，这并不能改变这样一个事实，即之前四次席勒市盈率超过30导致标普500下降20%至89%。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, history suggests that when the Shiller P/E heads above 30, a decline or a full-on bear market soon follows.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，历史表明，当席勒市盈率高于30时，下跌或全面熊市很快就会随之而来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Corrections occur every 1.87 years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 每1.87年进行一次修正</b></blockquote></p><p> No matter what sort of decline awaits investors in the future, it's important to recognize just how common these downward moves in the stock market are.</p><p><blockquote>无论未来等待投资者的是什么样的下跌，重要的是要认识到股市的这些下跌趋势有多普遍。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from market analytics company Yardeni Research, there have been 38 declines of at least 10% in the widely followedS&P 500since the beginning of 1950. Over this 71-year span, we're talking about a double-digit decline every 1.87 years, on average.</p><p><blockquote>根据市场分析公司 Yardeni Research 的数据，自 1950 年初以来，广受关注的标准普尔 500 指数已经出现了 38 次至少 10% 的下跌。在这 71 年的时间里，我们平均每 1.87 年就会出现两位数的下降。</blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind that averages are exactly that -- averages. There have been long periods in which corrections were few and far between. For example, there wasn't a single double-digit crash or correction between 1991 and 1996. By comparison, there have been seven double-digit percentage declines in the past 11 years, with at least eight other drops ranging from 5.8% to 9.9%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，平均值就是平均值。在很长一段时间里，修正很少。例如，1991 年至 1996 年间没有一次两位数的崩盘或修正。相比之下，过去 11 年中有 7 次两位数百分比下降，至少还有 8 次下降，范围从 5.8% 到 9.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Corrections are a healthy and normal occurrence.</p><p><blockquote>矫正是一种健康和正常的现象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. The average correction is six months long</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.平均修正长达六个月</b></blockquote></p><p> Although corrections tend to bum out optimists, here's some good news: Most crashes and corrections don't last very long.</p><p><blockquote>尽管调整往往会让乐观主义者失望，但这里有一些好消息：大多数崩溃和调整不会持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> Dating back to 1950, 24 of the S&P 500's 38 double-digit percentage corrections have found their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days (about 3.5 months). It took another seven between 157 and 288 calendar days to hit their trough. This means only seven significant declines in the market lasted longer than a year over the past seven-plus decades.</p><p><blockquote>追溯到 1950 年，标准普尔 500 指数 38 次两位数百分比修正中有 24 次在 104 个或更短的日历日（约 3.5 个月）内触底。又花了157到288个日历日的7个日历日才达到低谷。这意味着在过去七十多年里，只有七次市场大幅下跌持续时间超过一年。</blockquote></p><p> When we add those up, the S&P 500 has spent 7,168 days in correction since 1950. This works out to an average correction length of 188 days, orjust over six months. Compare this figure to the 11-year bull market we just exited, and you can see why it pays to be an optimist.</p><p><blockquote>当我们把这些加起来时，自1950年以来，标普500已经花了7168天进行调整。这意味着平均修正时间为 188 天，也就是六个多月。将这个数字与我们刚刚退出的 11 年牛市进行比较，你就会明白为什么做一个乐观主义者是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Modern-era corrections are a month shorter, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 现代矫正平均缩短一个月</b></blockquote></p><p> Cue the \"but wait -- there's more\" music.</p><p><blockquote>播放“但是等等，还有更多”的音乐。</blockquote></p><p> Even though corrections and crashes have been relatively short-lived over the past 71 years, they're even shorter in the modern era. I'm defining \"modern era\" as the rise of computers, which have assisted immensely with trading and providing supply-demand balance to equities. I'm arbitrarily using 1985 as the beginning of this modern era.</p><p><blockquote>尽管在过去的71年里，修正和崩溃的寿命相对较短，但在现代，它们的寿命甚至更短。我把“现代”定义为计算机的兴起，它极大地帮助了交易，并为股票提供了供需平衡。我武断地把1985年作为这个现代时代的开始。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1985, the S&P 500 has undergone 16 double-digit declines. These include the dot-com bubble, which at 929 calendar days is the longest decline in the benchmark index's history. Even with this outlier, the average length of a crash or correction in the modern era is only 155 days. That's a full month shorter than the historical average for the broad-based index.</p><p><blockquote>自1985年以来，标普500经历了16次两位数的下跌。其中包括互联网泡沫，929个日历日是基准指数历史上最长的下跌。即使有这个异常值，现代崩溃或修正的平均持续时间也只有155天。这比基础广泛的指数的历史平均水平短了整整一个月。</blockquote></p><p> With the internet giving retail investors instant access to information, the barriers that once existed between Wall Street and Main Streethave been torn down. This has played a key role in shortening the length of corrections and crashes.</p><p><blockquote>随着互联网让散户投资者即时获取信息，华尔街和大街之间曾经存在的壁垒已经被打破。这在缩短修正和崩溃的时间方面发挥了关键作用。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>5. 70% of the market's worst days are followed by its best gains</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5. 70% 的市场最糟糕的日子之后是最好的收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting statistic that's bound to raise an eyebrow or two is the correlation between the stock market's best and worst days. While some folks might be tempted to run for cover at the first sign of trouble, history shows that this isthe worst possible thing to do.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的统计数据肯定会引起一两个人的注意，那就是股市最好的日子和最坏的日子之间的相关性。虽然有些人可能会在遇到麻烦的第一个迹象时就想逃跑，但历史表明，这是最糟糕的做法。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, J.P. Morgan Asset Management released what's become an annual report that examines the rolling 20-year returns of the S&P 500. In particular, J.P. Morgan Asset Management looked at how investors' returns would differ if they missed only a handful of the market's best days over a 20-year period. Between Jan. 3, 2000, and Dec. 31, 2019, missing just the 20 best days would have effectively wiped out a 6% annual average return.</p><p><blockquote>去年，摩根大通资产管理公司发布了一份年度报告，研究了标普500 20 年滚动回报。特别是，摩根大通资产管理公司研究了如果投资者在 20 年内只错过了市场最好的几天，他们的回报会有何不同。在 2000 年 1 月 3 日至 2019 年 12 月 31 日期间，仅仅错过 20 天就会有效地抹去 6% 的年平均回报率。</blockquote></p><p> But what really stands out is how close the S&P 500's best and worst days occur to each other. According to the \"Impact of Being Out of the Market\" report, from Jan. 3, 2000, through April 19, 2020, \"Seven of the ten worst days were followed the NEXT DAY [emphasis by J.P. Morgan Asset Management] by either top 10 returns over the 20 years or top 10 returns for their respective years.\"</p><p><blockquote>但真正引人注目的是标准普尔 500 指数最好的日子和最坏的日子是如何接近的。根据《退出市场的影响》报告，从 2000 年 1 月 3 日到 2020 年 4 月 19 日，“十个最糟糕的日子中有七个是第二天[摩根大通资产管理公司强调] 20 年内的前 10 名回报率或各自年份的前 10 名回报率。”</blockquote></p><p> If you try to game the market, you're the one that gets played.</p><p><blockquote>如果你试图玩弄市场，你就是被玩弄的人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Long-term investors are batting 1.000</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6. 长期投资者的目标是 1.000</b></blockquote></p><p> I saved thebest stock market crash metric for last.</p><p><blockquote>我把最好的股市崩盘指标留到了最后。</blockquote></p><p> A bull market rally has eventually put each and every one of these 38 declines in the rearview mirror. And in many instances, it took just weeks or months to erase the declines. For practical purposes, it doesn't matter when you buy during a correction or crash. As long as you buy stakes in an assortment of high-quality, innovative businesses, and you hold those stocks for long periods of time, you have an exceptionally good chance of making money.</p><p><blockquote>牛市反弹最终将这 38 次下跌中的每一次都抛在了后视镜中。在许多情况下，只需要几周或几个月的时间就可以消除下降。出于实际目的，您在回调或崩盘期间买入并不重要。只要你购买各种高质量、创新企业的股份，并长期持有这些股票，你就有非常好的赚钱机会。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further proof, data from Crestmont Research on the S&P 500 shows thatat no pointbetween 1919 and 2019 have rolling 20-year returns on the index ever been negative. In fact, only two ending years out of this 101-year period yielded average annual total returns (that is, including dividends) of less than 5%. If you buy with the intent of holding for a really long time, historical data suggests you're going to do very well.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要进一步的证据，Crestmont Research 对标普500的数据显示，1919 年至 2019 年间，该指数的 20 年滚动回报率从未为负。事实上，在这101年期间中，只有两个年末的平均年总回报率（即包括股息）低于5%。如果你买入的目的是长期持有，历史数据表明你会做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10 stocks that could be the biggest winners of the stock market crash</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10只可能成为股市崩盘最大赢家的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> When investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have an investing tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade,<i>Motley Fool Stock Advisor</i>, has quadrupled the market.*</p><p><blockquote>当投资天才大卫和汤姆·加德纳有投资建议时，倾听是值得的。毕竟，他们办了十多年的时事通讯，<i>Motley Fool 股票顾问</i>，市场翻了两番。*</blockquote></p><p> David and Tom just revealed what they believe are the<b>ten best buys</b>for investors right now… And while timing isn't everything, the history of Tom and David's stock picks shows that it pays to get in early on their best ideas.</p><p><blockquote>大卫和汤姆刚刚透露了他们认为是<b>十大百思买</b>对于现在的投资者来说……虽然时机不是一切，但汤姆和大卫选股的历史表明，尽早提出他们的最佳想法是值得的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/07/stock-market-crash-coming-6-metrics-want-to-know/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/07/stock-market-crash-coming-6-metrics-want-to-know/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174323549","content_text":"Over the past three weeks, the stock market has sent investors a stern warning: Equities can go down, too.\nDespite the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC), iconicDow Jones Industrial Average(DJINDICES:^DJI), and growth-orientedNasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)reveling in record-breaking bounce-back rallies from the March 23, 2020, bear market low, the conditions areripe for a stock market crash.\nSince emotion is the primary driver of very short-term price movements, we're never going to know precisely when a crash or correction is coming. But make no mistake about it, crashes and corrections are an inevitable part of the investing cycle, and some would say the price of admission to the greatest wealth-creating tool on the planet.\nWith this in mind, here are six stock market crash metrics every investor should have in mind.\n1. A Shiller P/E greater than 30 leads to a bear market, historically\nAs noted, the market doesn't often give us telltale signs that a crash is coming. One of the very few indicators that, thus far, has apretty immaculate track record of calling crashesis the Shiller S&P 500 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. It's a P/E ratio based on inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.\nOver the past 150 years, the average Shiller P/E reading is 16.79. As of March 3, 2021, the Shiller P/E stood at 34.59 --more than double the historic average.\nHere's where it gets interesting. There have been only five bull market rallies in history where the Shiller P/E for the S&P 500 surpassed 30 and held for a period of time. A few of these periods might ring a bell, such as the Great Depression, the dot-com bubble, and the coronavirus crash. Admittedly, the March 2020 crash had nothing to do with valuations and was purely a response to a once-in-a-generation pandemic. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the fact that the four previous instances of the Shiller P/E surpassing 30 have led to declines in the S&P 500 ranging between 20% and 89%.\nIn other words, history suggests that when the Shiller P/E heads above 30, a decline or a full-on bear market soon follows.\n2. Corrections occur every 1.87 years\nNo matter what sort of decline awaits investors in the future, it's important to recognize just how common these downward moves in the stock market are.\nAccording to data from market analytics company Yardeni Research, there have been 38 declines of at least 10% in the widely followedS&P 500since the beginning of 1950. Over this 71-year span, we're talking about a double-digit decline every 1.87 years, on average.\nKeep in mind that averages are exactly that -- averages. There have been long periods in which corrections were few and far between. For example, there wasn't a single double-digit crash or correction between 1991 and 1996. By comparison, there have been seven double-digit percentage declines in the past 11 years, with at least eight other drops ranging from 5.8% to 9.9%.\nCorrections are a healthy and normal occurrence.\n3. The average correction is six months long\nAlthough corrections tend to bum out optimists, here's some good news: Most crashes and corrections don't last very long.\nDating back to 1950, 24 of the S&P 500's 38 double-digit percentage corrections have found their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days (about 3.5 months). It took another seven between 157 and 288 calendar days to hit their trough. This means only seven significant declines in the market lasted longer than a year over the past seven-plus decades.\nWhen we add those up, the S&P 500 has spent 7,168 days in correction since 1950. This works out to an average correction length of 188 days, orjust over six months. Compare this figure to the 11-year bull market we just exited, and you can see why it pays to be an optimist.\n4. Modern-era corrections are a month shorter, on average\nCue the \"but wait -- there's more\" music.\nEven though corrections and crashes have been relatively short-lived over the past 71 years, they're even shorter in the modern era. I'm defining \"modern era\" as the rise of computers, which have assisted immensely with trading and providing supply-demand balance to equities. I'm arbitrarily using 1985 as the beginning of this modern era.\nSince 1985, the S&P 500 has undergone 16 double-digit declines. These include the dot-com bubble, which at 929 calendar days is the longest decline in the benchmark index's history. Even with this outlier, the average length of a crash or correction in the modern era is only 155 days. That's a full month shorter than the historical average for the broad-based index.\nWith the internet giving retail investors instant access to information, the barriers that once existed between Wall Street and Main Streethave been torn down. This has played a key role in shortening the length of corrections and crashes.\n5. 70% of the market's worst days are followed by its best gains\nAnother interesting statistic that's bound to raise an eyebrow or two is the correlation between the stock market's best and worst days. While some folks might be tempted to run for cover at the first sign of trouble, history shows that this isthe worst possible thing to do.\nLast year, J.P. Morgan Asset Management released what's become an annual report that examines the rolling 20-year returns of the S&P 500. In particular, J.P. Morgan Asset Management looked at how investors' returns would differ if they missed only a handful of the market's best days over a 20-year period. Between Jan. 3, 2000, and Dec. 31, 2019, missing just the 20 best days would have effectively wiped out a 6% annual average return.\nBut what really stands out is how close the S&P 500's best and worst days occur to each other. According to the \"Impact of Being Out of the Market\" report, from Jan. 3, 2000, through April 19, 2020, \"Seven of the ten worst days were followed the NEXT DAY [emphasis by J.P. Morgan Asset Management] by either top 10 returns over the 20 years or top 10 returns for their respective years.\"\nIf you try to game the market, you're the one that gets played.\n6. Long-term investors are batting 1.000\nI saved thebest stock market crash metric for last.\nA bull market rally has eventually put each and every one of these 38 declines in the rearview mirror. And in many instances, it took just weeks or months to erase the declines. For practical purposes, it doesn't matter when you buy during a correction or crash. As long as you buy stakes in an assortment of high-quality, innovative businesses, and you hold those stocks for long periods of time, you have an exceptionally good chance of making money.\nIf you need further proof, data from Crestmont Research on the S&P 500 shows thatat no pointbetween 1919 and 2019 have rolling 20-year returns on the index ever been negative. In fact, only two ending years out of this 101-year period yielded average annual total returns (that is, including dividends) of less than 5%. If you buy with the intent of holding for a really long time, historical data suggests you're going to do very well.\n10 stocks that could be the biggest winners of the stock market crash\nWhen investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have an investing tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade,Motley Fool Stock Advisor, has quadrupled the market.*\nDavid and Tom just revealed what they believe are theten best buysfor investors right now… And while timing isn't everything, the history of Tom and David's stock picks shows that it pays to get in early on their best ideas.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/329007445"}
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