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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":340749633,"tweetId":"340749633","gmtCreate":1617498504322,"gmtModify":1631894003581,"author":{"id":3573733574332120,"idStr":"3573733574332120","authorId":3573733574332120,"authorIdStr":"3573733574332120","name":"gkwok1902","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Gg</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Gg</body></html>","text":"Gg","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340749633","repostId":1181163636,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181163636","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617364651,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1181163636?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 19:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Treasury yields steady ahead of payrolls, with bullish guesses at +1 million<blockquote>美国国债收益率在就业数据公布前保持稳定，看涨猜测为+100万</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181163636","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Rates are steady as the bond market awaits the March employment report, which many are expecting to ","content":"Rates are steady as the bond market awaits the March employment report, which many are expecting to be the firstin a series of hard evidence of the economic recovery.<blockquote>由于债券市场等待 3 月份就业报告，利率保持稳定，许多人预计该报告将是经济复苏的一系列确凿证据中的第一份。</blockquote> The 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 1.68%. The 30-year is up a basis point to 2.35%(NYSEARCA:TBT)(NASDAQ:TLT).<blockquote>10年期国债收益率持平于1.68%。30 年期国债上涨一个基点至 2.35%（NYSEARCA:TBT）（纳斯达克股票代码：TLT）。</blockquote> The stock market is closed,a rare occurrence on jobs day.<blockquote>股市休市，这在劳动节很少见。</blockquote> Stock index futures are trading, albeit on low volume.<blockquote>股指期货正在交易，尽管交易量较低。</blockquote> S&amp;P futures(SPX)&nbsp;+0.3%, Nasdaq futures(NDX:IND)&nbsp;+0.3%, Dow futures(INDU)&nbsp;+0.2%.<blockquote>标准普尔期货 (SPX) +0.3%，纳斯达克期货 (NDX:IND) +0.3%，道琼斯期货 (INDU) +0.2%。</blockquote> The consensus forecasts for payroll gains is ranging from +600K to +675K from Bloomberg. And the whisper number has grown to +800K.<blockquote>彭博对就业增长的普遍预测范围为+60万至+67.5万不等。耳语数量已经增长到+80万。</blockquote> A few predictions, including Merrill Lynch, are calling for payroll gains of +1M.&nbsp;That would be the largest number of jobs created since August when the rebound from worst of the COVID lockdowns was in full swing.<blockquote>包括美林在内的一些预测称，就业人数将增加 100 万人。这将是自 8 月份以来创造的最大就业机会，当时 COVID 封锁最严重时期的反弹正在如火如荼地进行。</blockquote> The unemployment rate is expected to drop to around 5.9% or 6%.<blockquote>失业率预计将降至5.9%或6%左右。</blockquote> \"I think the risk is on the upside during the initial phase of the reopening. Million plus job prints wouldn’t surprise me,\" Tim Duy of SGH Macro Advisors writes in a note. \"That said, the burst of super-fast job growth will likely be short-lived. Short-lived though it may be, it will still likely increase conviction that among market participants that the Fed will start hiking rates in 2023 with the risk of even a 2022 rate hike.\"<blockquote>SGH Macro Advisors 的蒂姆-杜伊（Tim Duy）在一份报告中写道：“我认为在重新开放的初期阶段，风险是上行的。超过一百万个工作岗位不会让我感到惊讶。”“也就是说，超快速增长的爆发可能是短暂的。尽管可能是短暂的，但它仍然可能会增加市场参与者的信念，即美联储将在 2023 年开始加息，甚至有可能在 2022 年加息。”</blockquote> Weekly jobless claims showed a surprise gain yesterday, but there are a couple of caveats. The March jobs report survey comes from the first half of the month, and jobless claims have been unreliable, with both fraudulent claims and unreliable reporting.<blockquote>昨天每周申请失业救济人数出人意料地增加，但也有一些警告。3月份就业报告调查来自上半月，申请失业救济人数一直不可靠，既有欺诈性申请，也有报告不可靠。</blockquote> Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, is also predicting a bullish gain of 1M jobs.<blockquote>均富会计师事务所首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克 (Diane Swonk) 也预测就业岗位将增加 100 万个。</blockquote> \"Private sector payrolls are expected to rise by 850,000 while gains mostly at the state and local levels make up the remaining 150,000 of those increases,\" Swonk writes in a blog. \"Employment gains in restaurants, bars and accommodation are expected to account for more than half of overall job gains. Hiring in health care is also expected to post outsize gains.\"<blockquote>斯旺克在博客中写道：“私营部门的就业人数预计将增加 85 万人，而州和地方层面的就业人数将占剩余的 15 万人。”“餐馆、酒吧和住宿行业的就业增长预计将占总就业增长的一半以上。医疗保健行业的招聘预计也将大幅增长。”</blockquote> Seeking Alpha contributor Hale Stewart says yesterday's late jump in equities makes him\"very curious\" about the jobs report.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha 撰稿人黑尔·斯图尔特 (Hale Stewart) 表示，昨天股市尾盘上涨让他对就业报告“非常好奇”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe550259e220d3bbacec3ab0df0365e0\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Treasury yields steady ahead of payrolls, with bullish guesses at +1 million<blockquote>美国国债收益率在就业数据公布前保持稳定，看涨猜测为+100万</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTreasury yields steady ahead of payrolls, with bullish guesses at +1 million<blockquote>美国国债收益率在就业数据公布前保持稳定，看涨猜测为+100万</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-04-02 19:57\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nRates are steady as the bond market awaits the March employment report, which many are expecting to be the firstin a series of hard evidence of the economic recovery.<blockquote>由于债券市场等待 3 月份就业报告，利率保持稳定，许多人预计该报告将是经济复苏的一系列确凿证据中的第一份。</blockquote> The 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 1.68%. The 30-year is up a basis point to 2.35%(NYSEARCA:TBT)(NASDAQ:TLT).<blockquote>10年期国债收益率持平于1.68%。30 年期国债上涨一个基点至 2.35%（NYSEARCA:TBT）（纳斯达克股票代码：TLT）。</blockquote> The stock market is closed,a rare occurrence on jobs day.<blockquote>股市休市，这在劳动节很少见。</blockquote> Stock index futures are trading, albeit on low volume.<blockquote>股指期货正在交易，尽管交易量较低。</blockquote> S&amp;P futures(SPX)&nbsp;+0.3%, Nasdaq futures(NDX:IND)&nbsp;+0.3%, Dow futures(INDU)&nbsp;+0.2%.<blockquote>标准普尔期货 (SPX) +0.3%，纳斯达克期货 (NDX:IND) +0.3%，道琼斯期货 (INDU) +0.2%。</blockquote> The consensus forecasts for payroll gains is ranging from +600K to +675K from Bloomberg. And the whisper number has grown to +800K.<blockquote>彭博对就业增长的普遍预测范围为+60万至+67.5万不等。耳语数量已经增长到+80万。</blockquote> A few predictions, including Merrill Lynch, are calling for payroll gains of +1M.&nbsp;That would be the largest number of jobs created since August when the rebound from worst of the COVID lockdowns was in full swing.<blockquote>包括美林在内的一些预测称，就业人数将增加 100 万人。这将是自 8 月份以来创造的最大就业机会，当时 COVID 封锁最严重时期的反弹正在如火如荼地进行。</blockquote> The unemployment rate is expected to drop to around 5.9% or 6%.<blockquote>失业率预计将降至5.9%或6%左右。</blockquote> \"I think the risk is on the upside during the initial phase of the reopening. Million plus job prints wouldn’t surprise me,\" Tim Duy of SGH Macro Advisors writes in a note. \"That said, the burst of super-fast job growth will likely be short-lived. Short-lived though it may be, it will still likely increase conviction that among market participants that the Fed will start hiking rates in 2023 with the risk of even a 2022 rate hike.\"<blockquote>SGH Macro Advisors 的蒂姆-杜伊（Tim Duy）在一份报告中写道：“我认为在重新开放的初期阶段，风险是上行的。超过一百万个工作岗位不会让我感到惊讶。”“也就是说，超快速增长的爆发可能是短暂的。尽管可能是短暂的，但它仍然可能会增加市场参与者的信念，即美联储将在 2023 年开始加息，甚至有可能在 2022 年加息。”</blockquote> Weekly jobless claims showed a surprise gain yesterday, but there are a couple of caveats. The March jobs report survey comes from the first half of the month, and jobless claims have been unreliable, with both fraudulent claims and unreliable reporting.<blockquote>昨天每周申请失业救济人数出人意料地增加，但也有一些警告。3月份就业报告调查来自上半月，申请失业救济人数一直不可靠，既有欺诈性申请，也有报告不可靠。</blockquote> Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, is also predicting a bullish gain of 1M jobs.<blockquote>均富会计师事务所首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克 (Diane Swonk) 也预测就业岗位将增加 100 万个。</blockquote> \"Private sector payrolls are expected to rise by 850,000 while gains mostly at the state and local levels make up the remaining 150,000 of those increases,\" Swonk writes in a blog. \"Employment gains in restaurants, bars and accommodation are expected to account for more than half of overall job gains. Hiring in health care is also expected to post outsize gains.\"<blockquote>斯旺克在博客中写道：“私营部门的就业人数预计将增加 85 万人，而州和地方层面的就业人数将占剩余的 15 万人。”“餐馆、酒吧和住宿行业的就业增长预计将占总就业增长的一半以上。医疗保健行业的招聘预计也将大幅增长。”</blockquote> Seeking Alpha contributor Hale Stewart says yesterday's late jump in equities makes him\"very curious\" about the jobs report.<blockquote>Seeking Alpha 撰稿人黑尔·斯图尔特 (Hale Stewart) 表示，昨天股市尾盘上涨让他对就业报告“非常好奇”。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe550259e220d3bbacec3ab0df0365e0\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678972-treasury-yields-steady-ahead-of-payrolls-with-bullish-guesses-at-1-million\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678972-treasury-yields-steady-ahead-of-payrolls-with-bullish-guesses-at-1-million","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181163636","content_text":"Rates are steady as the bond market awaits the March employment report, which many are expecting to be the firstin a series of hard evidence of the economic recovery.\nThe 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 1.68%. The 30-year is up a basis point to 2.35%(NYSEARCA:TBT)(NASDAQ:TLT).\nThe stock market is closed,a rare occurrence on jobs day.\nStock index futures are trading, albeit on low volume.\nS&P futures(SPX) +0.3%, Nasdaq futures(NDX:IND) +0.3%, Dow futures(INDU) +0.2%.\nThe consensus forecasts for payroll gains is ranging from +600K to +675K from Bloomberg. And the whisper number has grown to +800K.\nA few predictions, including Merrill Lynch, are calling for payroll gains of +1M. That would be the largest number of jobs created since August when the rebound from worst of the COVID lockdowns was in full swing.\nThe unemployment rate is expected to drop to around 5.9% or 6%.\n\"I think the risk is on the upside during the initial phase of the reopening. Million plus job prints wouldn’t surprise me,\" Tim Duy of SGH Macro Advisors writes in a note. \"That said, the burst of super-fast job growth will likely be short-lived. Short-lived though it may be, it will still likely increase conviction that among market participants that the Fed will start hiking rates in 2023 with the risk of even a 2022 rate hike.\"\nWeekly jobless claims showed a surprise gain yesterday, but there are a couple of caveats. The March jobs report survey comes from the first half of the month, and jobless claims have been unreliable, with both fraudulent claims and unreliable reporting.\nDiane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, is also predicting a bullish gain of 1M jobs.\n\"Private sector payrolls are expected to rise by 850,000 while gains mostly at the state and local levels make up the remaining 150,000 of those increases,\" Swonk writes in a blog. \"Employment gains in restaurants, bars and accommodation are expected to account for more than half of overall job gains. Hiring in health care is also expected to post outsize gains.\"\nSeeking Alpha contributor Hale Stewart says yesterday's late jump in equities makes him\"very curious\" about the jobs report.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1179,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/340749633"}