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Why Investors Should Heed This Red-Hot Sign for Stocks<blockquote>为什么投资者应该关注股票的这一火热迹象</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":341389664,"tweetId":"341389664","gmtCreate":1617782928758,"gmtModify":1634296544014,"author":{"id":3574575782343795,"idStr":"3574575782343795","authorId":3574575782343795,"authorIdStr":"3574575782343795","name":"MrSoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5bdec030dd49d0dabdf0b9138e4311a","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":11,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Please like</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Please like</body></html>","text":"Please like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341389664","repostId":1196832997,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196832997","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617782758,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196832997?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-07 16:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Investors Should Heed This Red-Hot Sign for Stocks<blockquote>为什么投资者应该关注股票的这一火热迹象</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196832997","media":"Barrons","summary":"The economic calendar in recent days has given investors lots of reasons to be bullish. The March jo","content":"The economic calendar in recent days has given investors lots of reasons to be bullish. The&nbsp;March jobs report grabbed most of the headlines, but the latest manufacturing data may offer the best clue for the U.S. stock market.<blockquote>最近几天的经济日历给了投资者很多看涨的理由。3月就业报告占据了大部分头条，但最新的制造业数据可能为美国股市提供了最好的线索。</blockquote> First, to recap: the Institute for Supply Management’s March&nbsp;manufacturing purchasing managers index shot up to 64.7&nbsp;in March from 60.8 in February, well past the 61.5 economists polled by FactSet had predicted. That result was the highest since 1983.<blockquote>首先，回顾一下：供应管理协会3月份制造业采购经理人指数从2月份的60.8飙升至64.7，远高于FactSet调查的经济学家预测的61.5。这一成绩是1983年以来的最高成绩。</blockquote> It’s worth revisiting the report during this light-data week. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, notes that the year-over-year change in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stock price index is highly correlated with what he refers to as the M-PMI, also known as the ISM. That’s because the year-over-year growth rate S&amp;P 500 companies’ revenues is highly correlated with the manufacturing index, he says, with the latest reading suggesting a surge in corporate revenue is in the offing.<blockquote>在这个轻数据周期间，值得重温这份报告。Yardeni Research总裁Ed Yardeni指出，标准普尔500股价指数的同比变化与他所说的M-PMI（也称为ISM）高度相关。他表示，这是因为标普500企业收入的同比增长率与制造业指数高度相关，最新数据表明企业收入即将激增。</blockquote> “The M-PMI has been and continues to be bullish for stocks and bearish for bonds,” Yardeni said in a note to clients on Tuesday. While the reading was hot during March, he says it could get “red hot” in April as a result of the latest round of stimulus spending.<blockquote>亚德尼周二在给客户的一份报告中表示：“M-PMI一直并将继续看涨股市，看跌债券。”虽然3月份的读数很高，但他表示，由于最新一轮的刺激支出，4月份的读数可能会变得“炙手可热”。</blockquote> Consider liquidity data. While M1 and M2 money supply data are now available only monthly—until recently the stats, which reflect currency in circulation plus saving deposits and certain certificates of deposit and money-market deposits, were reported weekly—Yardeni points to a weekly series the Federal Reserve compiles for total deposits at commercial banks. That series rose by a record $2.9 trillion year-over-year through the week of March 17, around the time the U.S. Treasury started to issue the third round of pandemic relief checks. Meanwhile, Yardeni notes, the Treasury’s checking account at the Fed fell $247 billion over the past two weeks (through the March 31 week), as many households received checks and direct deposits of $1,400 per person.<blockquote>考虑流动性数据。虽然M1和M2货币供应数据现在仅每月提供一次——直到最近，反映流通货币加上储蓄存款和某些存款证以及货币市场存款的统计数据是每周报告的——但亚德尼指出，美联储编制的每周系列商业银行存款总额。截至3月17日当周，该系列同比增长了创纪录的2.9万亿美元，大约在美国财政部开始发放第三轮大流行救助支票的时候。与此同时，Yardeni指出，过去两周（截至3月31日当周），财政部在美联储的支票账户减少了2470亿美元，因为许多家庭收到了每人1400美元的支票和直接存款。</blockquote> “All that liquidity augurs for another strong, or stronger, reading in April’s M-PMI and a continuation of the bull market in stocks,” Yardeni says.<blockquote>亚德尼表示：“所有这些流动性都预示着4月份M-PMI将再次强劲或更强劲，股市牛市将持续。”</blockquote> Digging into the March ISM report reveals strength below the surface. The new orders and production indexes hit the highest levels since January 2004. Supplier deliveries surged to the highest reading since April 1974, while the backlog of orders boomed to the loftiest level since reporting for that subindex started in early 1993. Demand is outpacing supply, and that dynamic doesn’t look like it will change soon.<blockquote>深入研究3月份的ISM报告揭示了表面之下的实力。新订单和生产指数创2004年1月以来最高水平。供应商交付量飙升至1974年4月以来的最高水平，而积压订单则飙升至1993年初开始报告该分类指数以来的最高水平。需求正在超过供应，而且这种动态看起来不会很快改变。</blockquote> There is an important flip-side. Producer prices remain elevated as the costs of everything from oil to lumber continue to rise. Over the past two months, the prices paid component of the ISM has hovered at its highest level since July 2008. Rising input prices should squeeze companies’ profit margins, Yardeni says.<blockquote>还有一个重要的另一面。随着从石油到木材等各种商品的成本持续上涨，生产者价格仍然居高不下。过去两个月，ISM的已付价格部分徘徊在2008年7月以来的最高水平。亚德尼表示，投入价格上涨应该会挤压公司的利润率。</blockquote> Investors will get an update on that front Friday when the Labor Department reports its latest producer-price index. For March, economists expect a big 3.8% jump in wholesale prices from a year earlier (in February, prices increased 2.8% year over year). Policy makers have warned that year-over-year inflation numbers would get hot, but they say increases would be transitory.<blockquote>周五，当劳工部报告最新的生产者价格指数时，投资者将获得这方面的最新信息。经济学家预计3月份批发价格将同比大幅上涨3.8%（2月份价格同比上涨2.8%）。政策制定者警告称，同比通胀数据将会升温，但他们表示，通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> Recent price increases by companies including Kleenex-maker&nbsp;Kimberly-Clark(ticker: KMB) suggest corporations don’t see higher input prices as quite so temporary. That’s potentially to the benefit of corporate profit margins, at least when it comes to the sellers of consumer staples and even if it’s a macro red flag for building inflation. Investors have to wait until next week, when the consumer-price index is released on April 13, to see the extent to which producers are passing on higher costs to consumers.<blockquote>包括面巾纸制造商金佰利（股票代码：KMB）在内的公司最近的价格上涨表明，企业并不认为投入价格上涨是暂时的。这可能有利于企业利润率，至少对于必需消费品的卖家来说是这样，即使这是通胀加剧的宏观危险信号。投资者必须等到下周，即4月13日消费者价格指数发布时，才能看到生产商在多大程度上将更高的成本转嫁给消费者。</blockquote> For now, though, investors can take comfort in the revenue side of the equation given the high correlations Yardeni observes between the M-PMI and both the S&amp;P 500 stock price index and the year-over-year growth rate in S&amp;P 500 company revenues. Looking at those, stocks have plenty of room to run.<blockquote>不过，鉴于亚德尼观察到M-PMI与标普500股价指数以及标普500公司收入同比增长率之间的高度相关性，目前投资者可以对等式的收入方面感到放心。从这些来看，股票有很大的运行空间。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Investors Should Heed This Red-Hot Sign for Stocks<blockquote>为什么投资者应该关注股票的这一火热迹象</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Investors Should Heed This Red-Hot Sign for Stocks<blockquote>为什么投资者应该关注股票的这一火热迹象</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-04-07 16:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe economic calendar in recent days has given investors lots of reasons to be bullish. The&nbsp;March jobs report grabbed most of the headlines, but the latest manufacturing data may offer the best clue for the U.S. stock market.<blockquote>最近几天的经济日历给了投资者很多看涨的理由。3月就业报告占据了大部分头条，但最新的制造业数据可能为美国股市提供了最好的线索。</blockquote> First, to recap: the Institute for Supply Management’s March&nbsp;manufacturing purchasing managers index shot up to 64.7&nbsp;in March from 60.8 in February, well past the 61.5 economists polled by FactSet had predicted. That result was the highest since 1983.<blockquote>首先，回顾一下：供应管理协会3月份制造业采购经理人指数从2月份的60.8飙升至64.7，远高于FactSet调查的经济学家预测的61.5。这一成绩是1983年以来的最高成绩。</blockquote> It’s worth revisiting the report during this light-data week. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, notes that the year-over-year change in the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stock price index is highly correlated with what he refers to as the M-PMI, also known as the ISM. That’s because the year-over-year growth rate S&amp;P 500 companies’ revenues is highly correlated with the manufacturing index, he says, with the latest reading suggesting a surge in corporate revenue is in the offing.<blockquote>在这个轻数据周期间，值得重温这份报告。Yardeni Research总裁Ed Yardeni指出，标准普尔500股价指数的同比变化与他所说的M-PMI（也称为ISM）高度相关。他表示，这是因为标普500企业收入的同比增长率与制造业指数高度相关，最新数据表明企业收入即将激增。</blockquote> “The M-PMI has been and continues to be bullish for stocks and bearish for bonds,” Yardeni said in a note to clients on Tuesday. While the reading was hot during March, he says it could get “red hot” in April as a result of the latest round of stimulus spending.<blockquote>亚德尼周二在给客户的一份报告中表示：“M-PMI一直并将继续看涨股市，看跌债券。”虽然3月份的读数很高，但他表示，由于最新一轮的刺激支出，4月份的读数可能会变得“炙手可热”。</blockquote> Consider liquidity data. While M1 and M2 money supply data are now available only monthly—until recently the stats, which reflect currency in circulation plus saving deposits and certain certificates of deposit and money-market deposits, were reported weekly—Yardeni points to a weekly series the Federal Reserve compiles for total deposits at commercial banks. That series rose by a record $2.9 trillion year-over-year through the week of March 17, around the time the U.S. Treasury started to issue the third round of pandemic relief checks. Meanwhile, Yardeni notes, the Treasury’s checking account at the Fed fell $247 billion over the past two weeks (through the March 31 week), as many households received checks and direct deposits of $1,400 per person.<blockquote>考虑流动性数据。虽然M1和M2货币供应数据现在仅每月提供一次——直到最近，反映流通货币加上储蓄存款和某些存款证以及货币市场存款的统计数据是每周报告的——但亚德尼指出，美联储编制的每周系列商业银行存款总额。截至3月17日当周，该系列同比增长了创纪录的2.9万亿美元，大约在美国财政部开始发放第三轮大流行救助支票的时候。与此同时，Yardeni指出，过去两周（截至3月31日当周），财政部在美联储的支票账户减少了2470亿美元，因为许多家庭收到了每人1400美元的支票和直接存款。</blockquote> “All that liquidity augurs for another strong, or stronger, reading in April’s M-PMI and a continuation of the bull market in stocks,” Yardeni says.<blockquote>亚德尼表示：“所有这些流动性都预示着4月份M-PMI将再次强劲或更强劲，股市牛市将持续。”</blockquote> Digging into the March ISM report reveals strength below the surface. The new orders and production indexes hit the highest levels since January 2004. Supplier deliveries surged to the highest reading since April 1974, while the backlog of orders boomed to the loftiest level since reporting for that subindex started in early 1993. Demand is outpacing supply, and that dynamic doesn’t look like it will change soon.<blockquote>深入研究3月份的ISM报告揭示了表面之下的实力。新订单和生产指数创2004年1月以来最高水平。供应商交付量飙升至1974年4月以来的最高水平，而积压订单则飙升至1993年初开始报告该分类指数以来的最高水平。需求正在超过供应，而且这种动态看起来不会很快改变。</blockquote> There is an important flip-side. Producer prices remain elevated as the costs of everything from oil to lumber continue to rise. Over the past two months, the prices paid component of the ISM has hovered at its highest level since July 2008. Rising input prices should squeeze companies’ profit margins, Yardeni says.<blockquote>还有一个重要的另一面。随着从石油到木材等各种商品的成本持续上涨，生产者价格仍然居高不下。过去两个月，ISM的已付价格部分徘徊在2008年7月以来的最高水平。亚德尼表示，投入价格上涨应该会挤压公司的利润率。</blockquote> Investors will get an update on that front Friday when the Labor Department reports its latest producer-price index. For March, economists expect a big 3.8% jump in wholesale prices from a year earlier (in February, prices increased 2.8% year over year). Policy makers have warned that year-over-year inflation numbers would get hot, but they say increases would be transitory.<blockquote>周五，当劳工部报告最新的生产者价格指数时，投资者将获得这方面的最新信息。经济学家预计3月份批发价格将同比大幅上涨3.8%（2月份价格同比上涨2.8%）。政策制定者警告称，同比通胀数据将会升温，但他们表示，通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote> Recent price increases by companies including Kleenex-maker&nbsp;Kimberly-Clark(ticker: KMB) suggest corporations don’t see higher input prices as quite so temporary. That’s potentially to the benefit of corporate profit margins, at least when it comes to the sellers of consumer staples and even if it’s a macro red flag for building inflation. Investors have to wait until next week, when the consumer-price index is released on April 13, to see the extent to which producers are passing on higher costs to consumers.<blockquote>包括面巾纸制造商金佰利（股票代码：KMB）在内的公司最近的价格上涨表明，企业并不认为投入价格上涨是暂时的。这可能有利于企业利润率，至少对于必需消费品的卖家来说是这样，即使这是通胀加剧的宏观危险信号。投资者必须等到下周，即4月13日消费者价格指数发布时，才能看到生产商在多大程度上将更高的成本转嫁给消费者。</blockquote> For now, though, investors can take comfort in the revenue side of the equation given the high correlations Yardeni observes between the M-PMI and both the S&amp;P 500 stock price index and the year-over-year growth rate in S&amp;P 500 company revenues. Looking at those, stocks have plenty of room to run.<blockquote>不过，鉴于亚德尼观察到M-PMI与标普500股价指数以及标普500公司收入同比增长率之间的高度相关性，目前投资者可以对等式的收入方面感到放心。从这些来看，股票有很大的运行空间。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-investors-should-heed-this-red-hot-sign-for-stocks-51617725446?mod=hp_DAY_6\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-investors-should-heed-this-red-hot-sign-for-stocks-51617725446?mod=hp_DAY_6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196832997","content_text":"The economic calendar in recent days has given investors lots of reasons to be bullish. The March jobs report grabbed most of the headlines, but the latest manufacturing data may offer the best clue for the U.S. stock market.\nFirst, to recap: the Institute for Supply Management’s March manufacturing purchasing managers index shot up to 64.7 in March from 60.8 in February, well past the 61.5 economists polled by FactSet had predicted. That result was the highest since 1983.\nIt’s worth revisiting the report during this light-data week. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, notes that the year-over-year change in the S&P 500 stock price index is highly correlated with what he refers to as the M-PMI, also known as the ISM. That’s because the year-over-year growth rate S&P 500 companies’ revenues is highly correlated with the manufacturing index, he says, with the latest reading suggesting a surge in corporate revenue is in the offing.\n“The M-PMI has been and continues to be bullish for stocks and bearish for bonds,” Yardeni said in a note to clients on Tuesday. While the reading was hot during March, he says it could get “red hot” in April as a result of the latest round of stimulus spending.\nConsider liquidity data. While M1 and M2 money supply data are now available only monthly—until recently the stats, which reflect currency in circulation plus saving deposits and certain certificates of deposit and money-market deposits, were reported weekly—Yardeni points to a weekly series the Federal Reserve compiles for total deposits at commercial banks. That series rose by a record $2.9 trillion year-over-year through the week of March 17, around the time the U.S. Treasury started to issue the third round of pandemic relief checks. Meanwhile, Yardeni notes, the Treasury’s checking account at the Fed fell $247 billion over the past two weeks (through the March 31 week), as many households received checks and direct deposits of $1,400 per person.\n“All that liquidity augurs for another strong, or stronger, reading in April’s M-PMI and a continuation of the bull market in stocks,” Yardeni says.\nDigging into the March ISM report reveals strength below the surface. The new orders and production indexes hit the highest levels since January 2004. Supplier deliveries surged to the highest reading since April 1974, while the backlog of orders boomed to the loftiest level since reporting for that subindex started in early 1993. Demand is outpacing supply, and that dynamic doesn’t look like it will change soon.\nThere is an important flip-side. Producer prices remain elevated as the costs of everything from oil to lumber continue to rise. Over the past two months, the prices paid component of the ISM has hovered at its highest level since July 2008. Rising input prices should squeeze companies’ profit margins, Yardeni says.\nInvestors will get an update on that front Friday when the Labor Department reports its latest producer-price index. For March, economists expect a big 3.8% jump in wholesale prices from a year earlier (in February, prices increased 2.8% year over year). Policy makers have warned that year-over-year inflation numbers would get hot, but they say increases would be transitory.\nRecent price increases by companies including Kleenex-maker Kimberly-Clark(ticker: KMB) suggest corporations don’t see higher input prices as quite so temporary. That’s potentially to the benefit of corporate profit margins, at least when it comes to the sellers of consumer staples and even if it’s a macro red flag for building inflation. Investors have to wait until next week, when the consumer-price index is released on April 13, to see the extent to which producers are passing on higher costs to consumers.\nFor now, though, investors can take comfort in the revenue side of the equation given the high correlations Yardeni observes between the M-PMI and both the S&P 500 stock price index and the year-over-year growth rate in S&P 500 company revenues. Looking at those, stocks have plenty of room to run.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/341389664"}